I had very little time to put together playoff previews. Thanks, NBA, for a two day layoff before the playoffs start. I understand the regular season is a million years long, but you couldn’t wait two more days? In particular, I wasn’t able to put together any sort of prognistication results, outside of the Smackdown, which we’ll be updating later today.
I doublt anyone will notice, but just so we’re clear. The predictions at FanHouse I made will not match those made in the Smackdown. The FanHouse ones are made on feeling and consideration of the matchup. And often without deep evaluation. For example, predicting Boston to kill Chicago. Very few called how much trouble the Bulls would give the Celtics, but I was completely blindsided. I liked Houston, because Portland had no one to take Ming.
Conversely, the Smackdown is an experiment on my part. I figured since it’s a big Geeks vs. Experts vs. Bloggers thing, I might as well try a formula, just to see if it would work. So I thought about all the cliches you talk about in the playoffs. Doing the little things. Playing defense. Rebounding. Making your free throws. So I came up with a ridiculously simple formula. I thought it would be interesting to see if a simple formula could compete with traditional common sense (“Orlando is not a playoff team!”) and complex analytics.
I decided on differentials, since that’s a pretty pragmatic number. They did this, better than their opponent did this. I took point differential plus rebounding differential plus free throw percent differential. I set parameters for the win. If the difference between the two totals was less than 1, the series would go seven. 1-4, and the series would go six, 5-9, a five game series, and 10 or more, and getcha brooms.
Now, there are all sorts of problems with this concept. This is evidenced by the selection of New Orleans over Denver in seven. Your regular season performance does not reflect how you will perform when Chauncey Billups is driving a knife into your heart over and over and over again. Similarly, the formula said Boston should kill Chicago, but that was before KG. Not to mention it didn’t factor in Orlando deciding to wait until the last few minutes of Game 4 to show up.
But it also caught a few surprises. It helped me pick Dallas. It selected Houston, and I missed the number of games by .81. The real kicker? The system actually selected LA in five, but I misread it and assumed it was LA in four. The system actually select a valute just over 7, which put if squarely in five game territory. I’m going to live with that one, but it’s a shame I didn’t read closer.
Which brings us to Round Two, and here’s where the system makes or breaks itself. I’m tied for fifth with five other particpants going into Round Two. The selections are rough. Cleveland takes Atlanta in four, no surprise. Boston takes Orlando in five. I have a problem with that, but then you’ve got the KG, Chicago-series, and my love for the Magic, so my perception is flawed. By these measures, Boston’s pretty clearly the better team under these perameters, even without looking at the numbers.
Then things get wacky in the West.
The system calls for a Dallas win in six. Okay, not very popular, but the same pick I made for FanHouse. I like the Dallas offense versus the Denver D, and don’t see Denver having enough guns down the stretch to combat the one through seven punch of the Mavs. A Denver win wouldn’t shock me, but this selection by the system seemed right.
Here’s the super-insane one. I swear, I didn’t influence this, and I reran it four times to be sure. I picked LA in six over at FanHouse, mostly because I think LA’s lack of effort is good for one win, and Houston’s crowd good for another. I was a little uncertain, but I didn’t want to bite too hard on LA. Surely, though, the system would select LA in four to five games.
Rockets in six.
…
WHAT?!
No no no. Silly Excel. You are confused! Let’s try this again.
“Rockets in six, Matt.”
“Computer, you’re going to get me laughed at. Please select Lakers in some number of games.”
“I’m afraid I can’t do that, Matt.”
“Computer, pick LA. That’s an order!”
“It’s for your own good, Matt. The Rockets shoot their free throws 5.6% better than their opponent. They outrebound their opponent more than LA outrebounds theirs. And LA doesn’t outscore their opponent enough.”
“Computer, Houston won’t be getting enough calls in this series to get to the line enough to outshoot the Lakers in free throws by 5.6%. And that’s totally okay. No complaints about the refs. But that shouldn’t count.”
“I’m just a computer, Matt. I can’t even talk. You’re just imagining this conversation because I’ve broken your cerebrum by selecting a team run by Aaron Brooks over one ran by Kobe Bryant. It’s over, Matt. Your selection is Rockets in six.”
So I’m probably going to whif on that. But I’ll stick with it for the fun of the experiment. It’s gotten me to top five so far, let’s see how far I can go.
************************
Second Round looks great, doesn’t it?
Orlando-Boston is causing my synapses to say “F’ it Dude, let’s go bowling.” I mean, as much as Celtics fans want to deny it, this team went seven games and a million overtimes against a physical team and needed Eddie House to have his first great game in two months to get by. At home. Now they face a much better team with a much better inside presence who may have gotten their shooting slump out of their system. They have more scorers, play better defense, and can counter every member of the Boston frontcourt. The backcourt is another matter altogether. Rondo kills Rafer, and if Howard comes to help he’ll get in foul trouble. They can bring the man-help with Lewis, but Glen Davis has proved he can reliably hit the 15 footer. Meanwhile, without Courtney Lee, Ray Allen is going to go off. I feel the need to repeat that for emphasis.
Ray. Allen. Is Going. TO. GO OFF.
I would love to see Orlando go with Alston-Hedo-Lewis-Gortat-Howard. That’s the only way they’re going to be able to rebound effectively in this series. Perkins and Davis will kill them on the glass unless Rashard Lewis decides to man up and get low. Turkoglu will still get torched by Ray Allen in the Celtics offensive set (or in layman’s terms, “running one guy off of 15 screens, including one that is essentially grabbing a guy and holding on to him”), but you can live with that more than you can live with Allen scoring and then getting multiple chances with rebounds.
Denver is going to win or lose with J.R. Smith vs. Jason Terry. That’s what it will come down to. Pick ‘em.
Cleveland is much better than Atlanta. They defend better. They score more efficiently. They have the best player in the series. And they’re great at home. Atlanta will probably pull one to two out, but anything more than that would be shocking. Of course, we said the same thing about them last year versus Boston.
LA is just so much more athletic than Houston. Odom versus Battier, or Artest? I like the young point by committee versus Farmar and Brown, but then you have a motivated Kobe, which is somehow more terrifying that normally motivated Kobe. Gasol is terrific, but he’s about to have a terrible series. Scola is big, burly, smart, and willing to get up and play a bigger guy. Ming will abuse Bynum. But you’ve got Ariza and the Laker bench. It’s going to take a flawless performance from Houston to push this thing to seven.
Let’s hear it, readers. Thoughts?
