Venture with me into an alternate reality, dear friends.

The officials yesterday, having been in this situation hundreds of times, make the obvious leap to conclude the Mavericks were intentionally fouling and make an obvious call. The Nuggets inbound with 2.5 seconds on the clock. Billups puts up a desperation heave that bounces off back iron. Here’s what you would have read and heard.

“Great performance by the Dallas Mavericks and Dirk Nowitzki. 16 rebounds for a guy often criticized for his lack of tough play. Brandon Bass was a beast. The Mavericks missed some opportunities down the stretch, but credit them with being smart enough to make the plays when they needed to and get this series back to 2-1 with Game 4 in Dallas.”

“Great job by the Mavericks of actually executing the foul to give and not letting the Nuggets get a clear shot. With Carmelo Anthony being one of the best clutch shooters in the league, you have to foul there and put them out of bounds. Great heads-up job by Rick Carlisle and Antoine Wright.”

“The Nuggets simply did not do enough to win this game. Their physical play was a hindrance today, and when it came to an ammo comparison, the Mavericks had more bullets.”

Instead we get treated to the ridiculousness of today.

“The Mavericks should have hit their free throws.”

That’s absolutely true. But they still did what they needed to in order to prevent the game winner. You’re not going to play flawless down the stretch. You’re going to make mistakes, they’re going to make mistakes. But it’s things like fouling with a foul to give that help win you games, on top of, you know, scoring more points than the other team.

“The Nuggets still would have had possession.”

Yup, but take a look at the Mavericks last possession. Those seconds are pretty vital. And the fact is, we don’t know. We should have been allowed to find out.  If they had that last possession and still drained it, there wouldn’t be any complaint.

“Wright should have wrapped him up.”

Yeah, and then Melo flops, flails, and the referees issue a flagrant foul, the Nuggets tie the game and get last shot. What, you don’t think that’s likely? Review what we’ve seen in the last week. Kobe Bryant elbows a guy, he gets nothing. Two weeks earlier, Dwight Howard elbows someone and gets a game. Derek Fisher gets ejected for a shoulder drive to the chest. Zaza Pachulia gets the same treatment for… TALKING. Ron Artest gets the same treatment for a play on the ball. You really going to tell me you trust the officials to not make a terrible call there, after what we’ve seen?

Wright made a really smart foul, when you watch it. He committed three fouls. He makes contact on the wrist. He reaches in. And he impedes progress. There were three violation in one act. Not severe enough to be excessive or unnecessary. Not light enough to be no-called. Well, logically, anyway.

And my least favorite.

“Wright should not have stopped playing. YOU PLAY TO THE WHISTLE!”

If Wright keeps playing, the odds of him getting tagged with a shooting or continuation foul skyrocket. Then he faces getting blasted by his coach, his teammates, Magic Johnson, Hubie Brown, and everyone else. Wright went in, made the foul before he had a chance to shoot, and then backed off. He did exactly what he was supposed to.  And he’s being punished for it.

***********************

A few weeks ago, I made a plea for bloggers to not criticize the officials. Since then, the league office and officiating crews have done such a terrible, horrible job, I’m seriously thinking of rescinding that plea. It’s not just this instance. It’s everything from Kendrick Perkins and Rajon Rondo getting away with murder, to Dwight Howard’s moving screens, to Ron Artest being unfairly singled out, to Kobe Bryant being excused, to Zaza Pachulia being tossed for talking. The league has established no credible line of consistency. They say that Bryant’s excused because he didn’t make contact above the shoulder. Kendrick Perkins makes contact above the shoulder. Nothin’. But Rafer Alston gives Eddie House a love tap and there’s no deliberation. How am I supposed to defend the offiicating and say we should concentrate on basketball when the league is making it impossible for us to ignore it? Every team in these playoffs has a legitimate gripe about how they’ve been treated. Well, except for Cleveland. Because they’ve killed everyone. But other than that, rampant inconsistency.

I don’t mind if the league goes to a soft line, allowing contact. And I don’t mind if the league goes hardline and says “No funny business.” But they need to be consistent. And right now, the only thing that’s consistent is that everyone feels screwed.

**********************

In spite of all this…

NICE FREAKING SHOT, MELO.

Life’s not fair.

I hear that a lot. My response is always that while that’s true, we have an obligation to try and make it as fair as possible. The logic behind that is tangled up in something between social contract and a Locke-ian emphasis in college. But there’s really not a lot we can do about something that is prety much completely unfair.

The Houston Rockets simply cannot win.

Now, I don’t think Houston was beating LA. I don’t think anyone’s beating LA. And there’s no “oustside of Cleveland” caveat there. They’re just more talented, they’re pretty well coached (no understatement), and they have matchup advantages over every team except Orlando.  But pushing LA, which I think Houston was going to do, would have been a measure of victory. It would have at least brought some sort of positive result for the season, outside of advancing to the second round. But instead?

Both of their superstar players have their seasons ended by injury.

I mean, what do you do with that? If you’re Daryl Morey, your system is built on logic and data. Cold, hard, information that people may not agree with, but under your system, makes the most sense to act on. But at what point does “CURSED_BY_THE_GODS_Q_RATIO” become a variable in the database? Some guys are injury prone due to a lack of conditioning. Others, just poor luck. Others, genetic flaws that make them slightly more human, like the rest of us, as opposed to the unfathomably healthy peers they work with. That’s the case with Ming. Random injuries all over the body would be one thing. But his feet just can’t hold the frame, it seems like. It’s entirely possible that all of his foot injuries are separate instances. That this is just a random series of circumstance. But the more logical conclusion is that Ming has too much weight on too weak a structure, and the result is injuries that prevent him from finishing seasons. Ming battled through it at the end of Game 3, you can’t call him a wuss. He played through it, because that’s how badly he wants it. What must have been going through his mind then? To know how much pain you’re in, but to play through it, either out of desire or fear for that post-game X-ray?

I’ve often said that the NBA Universe holds some teams as favored and some teams as cursed. Look at the Lakers. Blessed with the biggest market. A constant stream of superstars. Pau Gasol on a silver platter. And now, in a series that might actually test them, their biggest weakness, Ming’s dominance, is nullified. Conversely, this Rockets franchise since the 1995 championship has faced nothing but teasing agony. They assemble a solid all-around support system, which is often harder than getting superstars. Ask Kevin McHale. Only to find their superstars on the shelf, year after year, after year.

Maybe this is all luck. Blind luck. Some would probably say that it’s Morey’s fault for relying on injury prone players, but that’s the hand Morey was dealt.  But at some point you have to wonder if there’s some design in all this, a predetermined decision that the Rockets simply are not chosen by the Fates. It sounds silly and superstitious, buth how eslse do you explain the never-ending stream of outright disaster this team has faced?

At some point you have to face facts and just accept that despite the facts and data and reason, things are not meant to be. The Rockets may be approaching that point.

• On the Celtics first possession, Pierce drove straight for Dwight Howard. Howard went straight up, arms up, and blocked the shot. Hedo Turkoglu flipped it to Anthony Johnson, who streaked up the floor and flipped a pass in between Rondo and Big Baby Davis to a slashing Rashard Lewis. It was a footrace between the Celtics X-Factor, Glen Davis, and Rashard Lewis. Big Boned Lost. And that was the Celtics night.
• Exhibit A.
• Exhibit B.
• Absolutely phenomenal job by Anthony Johnson. He didn’t force the issue very often at all. He wasn’t trying to shut down Rondo, he was overplaying the strong side to force him into the trap or the baseline. He wasn’t trying to create his own shot, he was taking what the Celtics gave him. It was a weird comparison. There’s Rondo, settling for jumpers or passing up opportunities, and there was Anthonhy Johnson, just playing within his abilities and getting the job done. Way to go, old timer.
• Pierce took the ball in the first half up court off a Courtney Lee Miss, and you could tell he was going to just drive. No passing. No motion, just trying to go at it. Unfortunately, Dwight Howard was trailing and saw it from a mile away. Howard tracked him from one end of the floor to the other, and when Pierce managed to maneuver free of Rashard Lewis, Howard erased him. Not a pretty highlight, off the backboard rejection. He bent back Pierce’s hand. Sideline to sideline, rejection.
• We talked about this on the FanHouse Roundcast, but Pierce had 27 points. That indicates a good night. 6 of 15 from the field. That’s not good at all. Pierce especially struggles when driving at this point. He can draw the foul (14-14) but you’re still relying on an outside variable you can’t control (officiating) to get you points.
• Great point by Celtics Hub that the Magic are keeping Rondo away from the rim. Not the paint, but the rim. They’re not trying to stop Rondo. They’re redirecting him.
• Glen Davis is either starting to revert to the statistical mode, or getting worn out.  He finally started missing those partially blocked follow throughs he’s been banking through. He was frustrated, worn out, and outmuscled. Lewis ran him ragged, Howard out muscled him, it was the Glen Davis you’d expect without a Garnett safety blanket.
• The Celtics shoudl not put Eddie House on Courtney Lee. Lee ran him ragged with athleticism, and while House got his buckets, the biggest advantage for the Magic?  Lee isn’t a fiery rookie. He kept his head down and just worked.
• I haven’t run the numbers, but on intuition, I’d expect a high positive correlation between Rondo’s teardrop and his jumper. When his teardrop is going, he can hit a few Js. When it’s frozen, he’s got icicles on his jumper.
• Marcin Gortat seems like the guy who stays late at the office to help you with your project, then brings in doughnuts the next day.
• Stephon Marbury: 15 minutes, 2 points, 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 3 fouls. And the legend… continues.
• As much as Celtics fans hated it, I really liked the announcing call tonight. Barry can be good when Bryant isn’t on the floor. And Pasch’s “Howard… LOOK OUT!” was awesome in the 2nd. The best thing about this combo is that they don’t just prepopulate storylines. The story was Anthony Johnson and the Magic’s defense. That’s what they talked about. Very refreshing.
• Orlando knows the formula. Pierce will get his. The rest of the players are going to shoot about 45%. If you throw players at Ray Allen, fight through screen and contest everything, you can limit Allen. He is solvable, sometimes. When he’s not, you’re screwed anyway, so be ready to keep him from being insolvable for as long as possible, if that makes sense.
• The third quarter was basically Howard being taller, faster, stronger, better than the Celtics.
• Rondo. Seriously. The ball fake? Not necessary every time you drive.
• Celtics WILL respond in Game 4. That’s the problem with the Magic winning any game by a convincing fashion. It just provides Boston evidence that they can play better, but they didnt’.

Andrew Bynum fouls Gerald Wallace in what was an obviously unintentional but still reckless foul, and puts him in the hospital.

He is not suspended.

Trevor Ariza comes up behind Rudy Fernandez, swipes at his head during an attempt to make a play on the ball. Fernandez lays on the deck for a long period of time before making it to the locker room.

He is not suspended.

Rajon Rondo punches Brad Miller in the mouth. Miller bleeds from the mouth and subsequently misses two incredibly crucial free throws. After the game, Rondo admits he was not going for the ball but instead was going to foul Miller.

He is not suspended.

In the following game, Rajon Rondo becomes entangled with Kirk Hinrich in a rebound attempt around the arc. Rondo elects, after getting away with the Miller foul, swings Hinrich around which results in Hinrich making contact with the scorer’s table.

He is not suspended.

Dwight Howard and Samuel Dalembert are locked up in a tangle following a shot attempt in a crucial playoff game. While turning, Howard makes contact with the side of Dalembert’s head with his elbow, obviously intentionally, but with very little impact. Dalembert is not noticeably hurt, only noticeably offended and outraged.

He is suspended.

Derek Fisher overestimates how much force he’s going to need to knock over the much larger Luis Scola, who flies backwards to the ground.

Fisher is suspended.

Rafer Alston lightly slaps Eddie House on the back of the head after House, for the upteenth time, is preening to the crowd. This certainly doesn’t warrant such unsportsmanlike behavior from Alston, who was ejected. Which makes sense. Any further punishment means that intentional contact that results in injury is not as sever as intentional contact that puts Eddie House’s mile long mouth in its place.

He is suspended.

Kobe Bryant elbows Ron Artest in the throat/chest/shoulder/cockles of his heart.

He is not suspended.

I made a plea for bloggers not to blame referees or unnecessarily make officiating the crux of a game post in the playoffs. Some agreed, many didn’t, all had a good point. My quarrel is not necessarily with the officials who made these initial calls.

It’s with the seemingly random and arbitrary execution of the rules. It’s with the double standards, or lack of really any standard.

I hear a lot from bloggers (Skeets in particular, but many others) that you can’t consider the effects of the foul or incident in judging it. While I understand that from an impartiality and logic perspective, I strongly disagree. Rafer Alston’s slap was unprofessional and worthy of an ejection. It also caused House no harm, and if my momma saw me preening like that on national television? She’d slap me on the back of my head so fast it’d make my headband fall off. Oh. Yet that is not as bad as a foul that resulted in Miller bleeding from the mouth before crucial free throws. Amare and Diaw (yes, we’re back here, I’ll make it quick) stand up and take two steps, and they are suspended. Kobe Bryant elbows a dude in the throat, no biggie. When we break down these things to acts that exist outside of a sterile, neutral environment, the decisions make no sense.

Big note here. I’m not saying Bryant should be suspended. And while I think Rondo probably should have been popped for one of the offenses, I’m fine with the league’s decision to let it slide. But to punish the less dangerous, less severe incidents and then excuse the other actions is a little irrational, yes?

The conclusion I come to is not that we have to suspend any of these individuals. We’re not two steps away from a brawl because Artest got up in Kobe’s face. Howard’s elbow wasn’t THE PUNCH. Miller was only a 79% free throw shooter in that series anyway. Fisher wasn’t going to cave in Scola’s sternum. Everyone throws elbows. And Kirk Hinrich went to Kansas. He had it coming. Okay, that one he should have been suspended for. But you can excuse not suspending him for that if you don’t suspend the others. But what the league has done is created a perception that an act that injures a player isn’t excessive, but one that looks bad or is unprofessional is worthy of a suspension.

If Howard turns in Game 3 and caves in Perkins’ face, that’s going to warrant a suspension. If Artest goes into that special place he frequented when he was younger, yeah, that’s going to be a few games. But what we have right now is a system that has rewarded contact that resulted in injury and punished behavior that was in poor taste.

How French. Even when I get rid of Parker…

Now, everyone knows about the other clip where he mentions the incredibly sad, bizarre, and true story about the kid getting killed with a chair leg. I wasn’t surprised when I heard that clip from Ron. I was surprised when people were surprised it’s true. Ron Artest is a lot of things. A liar he ain’t. Crazy doesn’t make him a liar. Not this type of crazy. Additionally, considering the world Artest came out of wasn’t exactly peachy.

But what fascinates me, and what is not as sad, but is delightfully Crazy Pills, is Artest’s series of actions.

He gets elbowed in the throat by the second best basketball player on the planet.

He runs over to discuss it with the referee, and begins a conversation.

Partway through the conversation it occurs to Ron that he’s not getting through to him. So he goes to the next thing on his little mental list.

“Get in Kobe Bryant’s face in the midst of a 40 point game and bark at him until you are ejected.” Check.

This is going to seem a little non-sequiter. Bear with me.

Whenever I end up discussing classic fictional villains with friends, I make the case that Hannibal Lector is simultaneously a magnificent villain, a terrible villain, and outside the bounds of villainy itself. He’s fantastic because his moral marrowlessness is so profound, it’s grotuesque. He’s the boogeyman, if the boogeyman didn’t actually care that he was in your closet and just killed and ate you because it was convenient and you were loud. He’s terrible because his keen intellect and masterful manipulations are so, well, cool that you end up rooting for the guy. No, thing. You end up rooting for the thing. And that leads into why he’s not a villain in the first place. A creature so far removed from the human moral and ethical concepts that by instinct or environment are ingrained in us cannot accurately be referred to as human. He’s not a human being. He’s a being.

Now, Ron Artest is a man. He’s probably been a good person to some people and a bad person to others, like the rest of us. He is in no way similar in his actual person to the fictional construct of Hannibal Lector. But his caricature on the floor? That’s remarkably similar. You saw it in Daryl Morey and Shane Battier’s discussion of Artest as a bulldog. It’s why there’s nothing personal between Kobe and Artest on Kobe’s side. Kobe’s bothered when someone personally attemtps to bring him down. Like Raja Bell.  Ronnie Brewer (I still don’t know what that poor kid did to deserve that). LeBron James,though it’s friendly. Artest to him is like dodging burning wreckage on the highway.

Now we enter Game 3. Fisher’s suspended. The Rockets got beat down in Game 2. The Lakers are awake now, and the challenge becomes harder. And Artest is either, as he says, completley in control of himself and prepared to just go out and play the surprisingly controlled, efficient ball he’s been playing in the playoffs…

or he’s got a toothpick hidden away to pick the lock, and we’re talking the basketball equivalent of Lamar Odom and fava beans on Saturday.

Oh, Crazy Pills. How we love you.

Jon Nichols is the author of  Basketball-Statistics.com. His stats column will run each Thursday here at HP.

As the number of teams still in contention for the 2009 NBA championship dwindles down, it’s important to note not only the strengths of each team but also the weaknesses. All it takes is one major hole for another team to exploit and make you pay. We’ve seen this happen countless times in the past. So what is each remaining team’s biggest weakness?

Cleveland Cavaliers

Achilles heel: Depth

When you’re talking about a team as good as the Cavs, it’s really hard to find any weaknesses. They’re pretty much good at every statistical category. If I could nitpick and find one flaw, it would have to be their bench depth. With Anderson Varejao now starting, the only bench player they have with a PER over 14 is Joe Smith. Varejao, Big Z, LeBron, Mo Williams, and Delonte West are all great. After them, there is a bit of decline in terms of talent. But I should repeat: this isn’t a huge problem. It’s just the best I can do.

Boston Celtics

Achilles heel: Offensive turnovers

In the regular season, the Celtics were the second best defensive team in the league and a strong sixth on offense. This balance allowed them to stay dominant despite Kevin Garnett’s injury. However, there’s been one area they’ve struggled in mightily all year: offensive turnovers. In fact, on a per-possession basis, Boston was the third worst team in the league at taking care of the ball. Who are the biggest culprits? Kendrick Perkins, Stephon Marbury, Tony Allen, and Leon Powe, to name a few.

Orlando Magic

Achilles heels: Offensive rebounding and forcing turnovers

For a team as good as the Magic, it’s a surprise that they rank towards the bottom of the NBA in the two statistics I mentioned above. I’m especially surprised that a team with Dwight Howard can be so poor (third worst in the league) at collecting offensive boards. If you investigate closer, you can see why. The Magic’s two centers, Howard and Marcin Gortat, do a pretty good job of crashing the boards. But Orlando also starts Rashard Lewis at power forward, and he has an offensive rebound rate well below average for his position.

Atlanta Hawks

Achilles heel: Defensive rebounding

One of the great things about the Hawks is that they’re so versatile. Despite playing without a true center, they generally have good size and athleticism. Thanks to having Josh Smith at the power forward spot, they can run with the best of them. Unfortunately, you can’t run unless you grab the rebound first, something the Hawks struggle at (although they did just fine against Miami). In the regular season, Atlanta’s defensive rebound percentage was seventh worst in the NBA.

Los Angeles Lakers

Achilles heel: Point guards

Derek Fisher is a solid vet who generally makes smart plays, but in terms of production he’s been lacking. His PER of 12.1 shows how in many games he is quite a non-factor. Thankfully his solid defense often makes up for this weakness. Behind him on the depth chart, it doesn’t get much better. Jordan Farmar has had plenty of ups and downs with the Lakers, and this season certainly qualifies as a down. His PER of 9.9 is very low for a rotation player on a championship contender. He shoots inefficiently and turns the ball over too much. The Lakers must be careful: the Rockets have two good point guards in Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. Brooks has already shown what he can do. It’s no surprise the Lakers have started to resort to Shannon Brown.

Denver Nuggets

Achilles heel: Offensive turnovers

Like the Celtics, one potentially fatal flaw for the Nuggets is their inability to take care of the ball. Denver’s turnover rate is sixth highest in the NBA. It’s not a shocking statistic, considering the fast and sometimes wild pace they play at. However, it is a bit surprising considering that their floor general is Chauncey Billups, a very steady player. The Nuggets with the highest turnover rates include Anthony Carter, Chris Andersen, Nene, and Dahntay Jones.

Houston Rockets

Achilles heel: Forcing turnovers

As always, the Rockets are a stellar defensive squad. Their defensive rating ranks fourth in the NBA and they have defensive studs such as Ron Artest and Shane Battier on their roster. In terms of holding the opponent to a low field goal percentage, gathering rebounds, and not fouling, they are great. However, along with this steadfast approach comes a conservative attitude. Guys like Shane Battier won’t gamble for a steal; they’ll stay in front of their man and force a tough shot. In a way, this weakness may end up being one of their greatest strengths.

Dallas Mavericks

Achilles heel: Drawing fouls and forcing turnovers

In the 2006 Finals, there was a great deal of talk about the free throw discrepancy between the Heat and the Mavericks. It is indeed true that Dwyane Wade spent a ton of time at the foul line (although partly thanks to Dallas’s willingness to foul Shaquille O’Neal and put Miami in the foul bonus early). However, it is also true that the Mavericks have never been a great team at earning free throw attempts. Three years later, it’s still an issue. Jason Terry, Josh Howard, and Jason Kidd, three guys who don’t make a living at the charity stripe, run much of their offense. Even the main man, Dirk Nowitzki, doesn’t get fouled a ton. It’s simply not Dallas’s style.

• I was talking with John from Red’s Army today and I mentioned that when the Celtics go into that hardcore defensive mode where their bigs are roaming around the elbow and suffocating any hope of penetration, there’s no hope. It’s like trying to stab a brick wall with an exacto knife.
• The Magic might as well have been using a rubber butter knife.
• Later on, I was talking with Ben from Third Quarter Collapse and I mentioned that the Magic HAD to play Gortat next to Howard, early.  If you take away the Celtics’ bigs’ ability to muscle for rebounds and put a cleanup man next to Howard, it’s too much to overcome.
• Gortat played 3:45.
• Wow.
• Anthony Johnson is the worst point guard left in the playoffs. Worse than Farmar. By lots.
• I’m done with Rafer Alston until he redeems himself. I’ve stuck up for him for 18 months. I’m done with it. Can’t hit layups, makes bad decisions, gets ejected and puts Anthony Johnson into the starting lineup for Game 3, which could allow the Celtics to get back homecourt.
• But can you blame the guy?
• Great game by House. Guy’s a great shooter. Lots of great shooters in this series. And whoever’s hot that night is going to walk away with it.
• But damn, the dude might as well put pom-poms on his shoes.
• Turkoglu is going to have to force the issue in this series. If he’s passive, they won’t win, and he won’t get paid as much. It’s a win-win-lose-lose situation.
• Pierce scores three points and they blow out their opponent? BAD SIGN. +1 for the Celtics fans who doubt the Magic.
• Just a dominant performance by a team that refuses to go away. They still run the show until someone wins four against them. And you’re going to have to do WAY better than what the Magic have done so far.

• Hilarity. Go down by 28. Crawl back into the game thanks to one team letting off and then crazy events like the Rondo turnover to Scalabrine prayer. Still lose. At home. Then say the other team sucks. Comments are gold on this.
• Are the Lakers more profitable to the league than the entire nation of China?
• Thanks to this I will be starting a band called “Keith Bogans’ Dribbling Adventures.”
• Can you quantify hustle? Great stuff by Doolittle and company.
• Meanwhile, I did a little conversation with the boys over at FH about Orlando-Boston 1 and the Rockets-Lakers.
• Things that are awesome: Tom Ziller’s work on Battier v. Kobe.  Things that are not awesome: Bringing attention to it which will make Kobe go OFF in Game 2.
• If you look up ‘Desperate’ on Wikipedia, there’s a link to this. Take it from San Antonio, Boston. Leaning on the mascot white guy three point shooter is a bad plan.
• Monster on the Boards wonders if Bynum is one.
• I haven’t had a chance to cover the D-League this year. Next year? I plan on re-investing myself. But when I do return, I’m starting in a hole I helped dig. Because I gave Scott an opportunity, and now he is the Lord and Master of the D-League. If you’re not reading RU, get going.
• Using logic to suggest that this Celtics team has only been real for about 365 days. One year dynasty, people. One year dynasty.
• There’s a line being drawn in the Utah sand. And everyone is going to have to decide which flawed power forward they want to lose in the first round with. (Okay, I know, I made my point, no need to twist the knife in Utah. It’s the shot Ali never gave Foreman. Here’s a hint. Go with ManSapp.)
• Matt McHale makes an argument for Hinrich that makes me want to give him a blog hug. And then awkwardly look at the ground after he waves me off. The idea among his supporters is that you can’t replace Gordon’s points. So it’s the number of possessions Gordon finishes with a score minus the number of possessions he single handedly kills. Gordon probably comes out ahead, he’s that great of a scorer, but is that remaining number of possessions worth the money?
• I love the idea of Sheed retiring. Will I miss him? Absolutely. But it would be more evidence that Sheed may have gotten the most out of his life in the NBA that he could. He managed to be succesful, make money, win a championship, have a family, be himself, and walk away on his terms. I’m on a kick about players and coaches who winning isn’t everything to, and Sheed’s the statue outside that hall.
• I’m really digging Povtak’s work at FanHouse. But this stuff is a little nuts. The Heat are so young. They have a serviceable point guard in training, with a ton of potential in Chalmers. Beasley has great offensive upside, which is really what they need. And they’re going to have cap room. I just don’t think Wade’s under that much stress to go somewhere loaded.
• The rumors of their collapse are greatly exaggerated.
• The biggest thing that bugs me in a possession is a pull-up jumper with more than 12 seconds on the shot clock  when it’s not in transition. The second biggest thing that bugs me is missed layups. I recognize how hard it must be to hit layups against NBA defense.  But watching teams blow those kind of opportunities, when you can actually get to the rim just kills me.  So these numbers are fascinating to me, particularly on the bad end. You look at the teams that missed the most and you have to wonder “what if?” Side note: How unfair is it that 3rd Quarter Collapse has both Ben Q Rock and erivera, a terrific stats writer? Their PER per writer is off the charts.
• My favorite Blowtorch post of the last two weeks.

Brian Scalabrine – The Italian Disease (Thanks, Mr. Dwyer) (Scroll)

I guess technically speaking Shane Battier did most of the bleeding, but the Lakers are certain nursing a sizable wound to their egos right about now.  The underdog Rockets took Staples by storm, holding the Lakeshow to just 18 first quarter points as they set the tone for the series.

Is Crazy Pills going to shoot around 50% from three and average 7 assists for the series?  I think not.  Will Pau play like a total scrub, blowing easy rebounds and wide open jumpers?  Doubtful.  Do the Lakers continue to shoot 11% from three?  HAIL no.  But the beauty of playing in a seven-game format is that it allows a little breathing room to both teams.  That could mean that Game 1 was an abberation, a slight blemish on L.A.’s otherwise spotless road to the Finals.  Or, it could mean that the most consistent force in this series, the Rockets’ defense, will have the greatest impact.  Houston’s offense will come and go, depending on how the Lakers decide to cover Yao and lure Artest.  But though this may be the most talented offensive squad in the league, the Rockets made them look awfully uncomfortable last night.  Houston gave L.A. a quick punch in the mouth just to remind us all of the Lakers’ mortality.

I can see Aaron Brooks running circles around the Lakers’ defenders all series long.  Derek Fisher’s ability to keep up with him ten years ago would have been questionable, and Jordan Farmar’s had a hard time staying on the court lately.  That could mean an increased role for Shannon Brown, an effort defender with enough footspeed to not embarrass himself.  Otherwise, I foresee Brooks splitting double-teams, getting to the basket at will (luckily for L.A., he finishes about as well as the ball boys who may or may not outsize him), and doing all of those things that quick little buggers do on a basketball court.

I had a conversation with Graydon shortly after the Battier Fuss of ’09, and he brought up a killer point: the success of that article was the same as dubbing him a “Harvard Man.”  If you attend or graduate from Harvard, you’re sure to hear about it every time you make a mistake.  “There’s that Harvard education at work!”  Likewise, Battier will get an earful every time he commits a defensive mistake or logs a negative +/- .   I mean, he’s Shane Battier.  His middle name is practically +/- .  That is, if cyborgs constructed with the sole purpose of playing calculated, super-effective defense had a use for middle names.  I’m just warning you because Kobe scored 32 points (while sick) and Battier ended up -3 overall.  But believe you me, Shane played some solid D.  It obviously wasn’t a perfect performance, but hey — it was good enough, wasn’t it?

You can’t expect much more from Yao.  He dominated when guarded one-on-one, and either passed or spun out of the double teams.  The knee-bump with Kobe was understandably scary, and here’s hoping that there aren’t any lasting effects.  Yao is the anchor to which the Rockets’ offense is tethered, and if they’re going to pry championship hopes out of Kobe Bryant’s fingers, they need to fully embrace that mindset.  28 points on 17 shots would seem to be  a lovely demonstration of just that, but I’ll buy into a Rockets offense that consistently makes sense when I see it.  When your point guard is a shooter and you employ Ron Artest, things on the offensive end can get a little complicated.

You have to like what we’ve seen from the Rockets so far.  Yet, in spite of a miserable night from the league’s most deadly offense, the Lakers were right there in the fourth quarter.  A few made buckets for the Rockets and we’re talking about how gutsy the Lakers are (or probably just talking about how much we hate them).  Maybe Phil will set the alarm correctly next time out, the Lakers make quick work of the Rockets, and we all have a good chuckle.  The hoopla of Bynum’s injury and return diverted our attention from from even the possibility of a pitfall, but the Lakers’ road has hardly been paved for them.  If Kobe wants to make it to the promised land, he’ll need to go through the Rockets rather than flying past them.