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The Illusion of Choice

The Milwaukee Bucks are a truly confounding franchise.  The core of players that has been assembled (now, and every year during my lifetime, for that matter) seems mismatched at best and train wreck at worst.  Their choices in the draft, while unmistakably talented, leave us scratching our heads.  And the head coach, in typical Scott Skiles fashion, refuses to throw a bone to the talent on his roster in the name of this team carving out a future for itself.

I’ve seen glimpses of the promised land, and let me tell you: the bridge to it is not built on the back of Luke Ridnour.

The Bucks have actually made their share of headlines this off-season, which is a rarity for a franchise that’s been mired in mediocrity.  I don’t blame the Bucks for the Jefferson trade, though it doesn’t bear many benefits on the basketball side of things.  Trading for Amir Johnson could prove to be an interesting move, as Johnson could be a lifetimer in ‘Waukee as a role player.  Selecting Brandon Jennings with the 10th pick is really a post unto itself, and mind-bendingly awesome/awful.

Then, after a mini-flurry of activity, the Bucks were left with a choice.  Or at least something that resembled a choice.  Both Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions are restricted free agents looking for long-term financial commitment from the team.  Sessions would seem to be the odd-man out with Jennings now in the point guard rotation, and Villanueva still a bit of a question mark despite his scoring abilities.

So why is it that the Bucks volunteered themselves for a point guard logjam while letting Charlie V walk?  It’s simple: the Bucks never had a choice.  When Milwaukee sent Richard Jefferson to the Spurs for what amounts to a cap relief package, they sent a pretty clear message: everything is not alright.  Striving for .500 on a gaudy payroll is not the objective of this franchise.  They’re mad as hell, and they’re not gonna take it anymore.  But turning over a new leaf not only means acquiring some new talent (may I introduce Mr. Jennings), but also removing all other considerable road blocks to the team’s success.  The first road block was Jefferson, his contract, and his attitude.  The second road block was very clearly Charlie Villanueva, whose potential for a long-term, high-salary deal would essentially nuke any financial flexibility the Bucks would hope to have in the future.  The third, and perhaps most significant road block to the NeoBucks is Michael Redd.  But that’s a story for another day.

In theory, you shouldn’t let go of assets without compensation.  C-Nuv is a fairly valuable player, as evidenced by the insane amount of money the Pistons will pay him shortly.  But did the Bucks really have any call to re-sign him?  Was there really any possibility that a non-star scorer should be at the core of this team, tying the purse strings and giving Scott Skiles an aneurysm?  Villanueva is a better talent than Sessions, and one that fills what is likely a greater need in regards to both position and skill.  Yet, when it came down to deciding between the two, the Bucks’ hands were tied.  Sessions isn’t likely to receive anything more than the midlevel, while the subtle sexiness of Villanueva’s game could net him some serious dough.  I’m definitely of the opinion that he doesn’t deserve that kind of cash to begin with, but that’s not really the issue here.  The market for Villanueva’s services is about to be set, and we’ll soon see that the Bucks never really stood a chance.  Even if they reserved the right to match offers for Charlie, the decision was never really theirs.  The Bucks’ hands were tied when they signed Bobby Simmons to an absurd contract, when they gave Michael Redd more money than he was worth, and when they made Dan Gazuric the richest man ever named Dan Gadzuric.  Some of that is mismanagement and some of it is the horrors of small market basketball, but all of it has ensured that Villanueva isn’t sticking around with the Bucks.

Charlie’s going to get his, but that doesn’t mean the Bucks can’t come out on top in this scenario.  Making sense of the point guard rotation is a ridiculous enterprise, but Milwaukee is one step closer to a fresh start.  It’s a bit of a shame that an atypical, perplexing, jump-shooting power forward couldn’t be part of something so fittingly new, but I somehow doubt the Bucks will lament the loss of Villanueva’s new deal.

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No team has ever been harmed by making a qualifying offer to their player to achieve restricted free agent status. Teams don't want to sign other players restricted free agents because they end up like the Mavs, sitting on an exception while the players they like have all signed contracts. The Cavs used restricted free agency to hold onto their PF Varejo for pennies on the dollar for one more season. The Bulls held onto Gordon for one year longer. They could have relinquished their rights after Chuck V signed with Detroit, but odds are Detroit targets an unrestricted free agent rather.

In Texas Hold'em, if everyone ahead of you checks and you are in the double blind, you can check, bet, or fold - but nobody folds. Why fold when it costs you nothing to see the next card? Same here. If Detroit makes that offer on your restricted free agent, there is no shame in folding. But why fold before there is an offer on the table?

I've heard that the Hawks would sign and trade Josh Childress to the Bucks for Luke Ridnour If they do that trade, their rotation will look something like this:

PG: Sessions
SG: Redd (Insert Childress/Bell here if Redd gets traded.)
SF: Mbah a Moute
PF: Ilyasova
C: Bogut
6: Childress
7: Jennings
8: Alexander
9: Johnson
10: Bell
11: Gadzuric
12: Stoudamire/Meeks

It isn't perfect, but there is something there. If they can dump Redd like they dumped Jefferson, they will be in pretty good shape salary-wise, and they will have some nice young talent for Scott Skiles to mold to his system.

Rob,

Well done my friend. An accurate synopsis of the current state of the Milwaukee Bucks. Sometimes you have to destroy to rebuild, and it doesn't always look pretty from the outside.

I doubt Ridnour will be in Milwaukee be the start of the season. The rumored Stackhouse trade sounds good to me. If we can't do something similar to that, his $6m expiring contract ought to get a decent player in return. I hope.

Kneejerk-

Redd had a broken J in college. I saw him. I was there, man. He was NEVER a deadeye shooter. Unless you consider 43% from the field and 30% from college three to be "deadeye"

http://www.ibiblio.org/craig/draft/2000_draft/Players/redd.htm

That's why he went 2nd round. His jumper was suspect, at BEST. He was a slasher.

He LEARNED to shoot a jumper on the job.

Regarding Luke's defense, I can't back it up with stats, but he isn't any worse than Sessions or most other point guards his size IMO. Of course, I haven't paid attention to him much since he left Seattle.

@AK- Redd was a deadeye shooter from the second they drafted him. And you forgot to mention that Luke Ridnour can't guard a single player in the league. That will definitely bother Skiles a bit. Other than that (and his broken-ass jumper), he's worth every penny they spent.

Dear Luke Ridnour,

Please fix your broken-ass jumper this Summer. That is the only thing wrong with your game, and everybody who guards you knows it, and exploits it. I suggest talking with Michael Redd, Karl Malone, LeBron James, Trevor Ariza, or any of the dozens and dozens of other NBA players who had to develop their jumpshot on-the-fly while playing in the NBA.

With love and devotion,

Scott Skiles
XOXOXO

There's one other name that played a part in all of this: Ersan Illyasova. He's the other RFA power forward, and has become one of the better big men in Spain this season. The Bucks want to bring him back, and either value him more than Villanueva, or feel that the two players are close enough in talent that the cheaper Illyasova is the right choice.

I really do feel that we're moving in the right direction under John Hammond. Cleaning up the mess left behind by the previous management has been tricky, but we've already gotten rid of Bobby Simmons' and Mo Williams' contracts. I don't think anybody will take Gadzuric off of our hands, but Redd may be moveable if he plays well.

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