So far, I’ve run two studies trying to make some sense of my original study on the importance of three-pointers for point guards (http://basketball-statistics.com/howtheshootingabilitiesofpointguardsaffectoffenses.html). First, I factored in true shot percentage (http://basketball-statistics.com/tryingtounderstandthepointguardresultsparti.html). Next, I re-did the original study using career three-point percentage instead of the current season’s percentage (http://basketball-statistics.com/tryingtounderstandthepointguardresultspartii.html).
Today, I’m going to look at the interplay between three-point percentage and three-point attempts. So far, I’ve established that at least in some ways, three-point shooting is important for point guards. However, it makes sense that a player that can shoot threes not only efficiently but also often will be even more effective. It may even be possible that being an average three-point shooter but attempting a lot of them is more useful than being an accurate but timid shooter. After all, if a player keeps hitting threes, the defense will inevitably be forced to adjust and leave other players more open.
To see if there is some truth to this, I first divided the point guards into three categories based on percentage: those with a 3PT% above 40%, those between 30% and 40%, and those below 30%. I then split those three categories into nine based on the amount of attempts a player had. For each category, I calculated the average Offensive Rating of all the lineup combinations that featured one of those players. The results are below:
To see the amount of lineups that qualified for each category, see below:
As you can see, not enough players qualified for the top right and lower left categories, and that’s a good thing. That means that the best shooters aren’t afraid to fire away and the worst shooters know their limits (to an extent). Another observation is that accuracy is more important than frequency. The players with the highest percentages had the most positive impacts on their offenses, regardless of the number of attempts. Additionally, it is better to be more efficient with a medium amount of attempts than less efficient with a higher amount of attempts.
Beyond that, there are many more observations to be made. There are also many other ways I could qualify the importance of three-point shooting for point guards. In the future I will do some more research as well as gauge the importance of three-point shooting for other positions.
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If you look at the PGs on championship teams in recent memory (Derek Fisher, Rajon Rondo, Tony Parker, Chauncey Billups), the 3 ball isn’t the biggest factor that stands out. It’s more of an ability to manage a game without turning the ball over. And of course, they can all defend their positions effectively and most of them (Parker excluded) are strong enough to defend 2s on the switch. If you take Fisher out of the picture, there’s also a lot of scoring in the paint.
So if I’m looking to win a championship, the guard I’m drafting (or trading for) is strong, smart, can shoot the 3 a bit (for spacing), but most importantly can defend and not turn it over.
Allen Iverson is pretty much the opposite of this player.
KneeJerk-
Don’t forget Jason Williams (Miami 2006). He was pretty efficient with his floor game once Pat Riley knocked the showtime out of him. But his 3pt shooting was atrocious. And his D was suspect; especially on athletic 2’s.
Also worthy of mention is that Parker does not handle point-guard duties in the true sense of the word. He’s a weirdo. An ultra-quick undersized guard who can’t hit a 3 reliably, set up teammates, or defend. He walks the ball up the floor like a PG, but then passes it off to Tim or Manu and lets them actually make a play. So, he doesn’t turn the ball over much, but that is because he is playing off the ball or just plain ballhogging most of the time.*
In both of these cases, the team had an athletic 2 (Manu/Wade) who handled the ball most of the time on 1/2 court offensive sets.
(*disclaimer: I don’t like Parker- I know he scores lots of points and has a hawt wife and more money than me and is probably a nice guy- but I don’t like his game.)
Jon,
Do you remember what I told you you would find when you posted your last “study’s results” here? … re: the relationship between effectiveness and 3FG% [and the lack of a correlation between effectiveness and 3FGA]
Hopefully you do.
Trust that I have not done a formal study of this data yet either … except, of course, that which occurs each game in my own mind’s eye.
There has yet to be a computer [statistical?] program yet written that can duplicate [never mind supercede] the effectiveness and accuracy of a well-trained eye in terms of being able to assess the goings-on on a basketball court correctly.
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re: “However, it makes sense that a player that can shoot threes not only efficiently but also often will be even more effective.”
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Actually what makes complete sense, from a “Basketball Acumen standpoint”, is that Point Guards with a high 3FG% on as few 3FGA’s as possible have the greatest positive effect on their own team’s ability to WIN games.
Although this might seem counter-intuitive at first to those who do not know and understand how the game actually works, for those that do already, it’s as staright-forward as 1 + 1 = 2.
[...] when your point guard can shoot, check out the great Jon Nichols’ study (available here at Hardwood Paroxysm) on how good three-point shooting PG impacts a team’s offensive [...]
I’m 100% with KneeJerk
It’s not about your pg being able to pop the 3s, but it’s about playing smart and within the offensive scheme — meaning, KNOW YOUR ROLE. You don’t have to be a lights out 3pt shooter nor do you even have to shoot 3s at all, as long as there’s a system that works and you abide by it. Isiah Thomas won 2 rings in a row, and he doesn’t come close to being a 3pt threat.
In response to AKDave, I have to say J Williams was a horrible pg, but solid play coming from the other role players in Shaq, Haslem and Posey, more than made up for J Will’s shortcomings.
Now of course if a player can shoot the 3ball, it’d be a tremendous plus. But as long as there’s a solid offensive scheme available, EXECUTION is what will prevail in the end – a la the SA Spurs and little TP.
[...] shooter who can actually shoot has a dramatic effect on a team’s offense. Jon Nichols studied this for point guards recently, and found that a high-percentage, high-volume shooter at the PG spot sends an offense into the [...]
does that mean jameer nelson is the best pg
I would be interested to see the same look at a point guard who scores in the paint. Rondo and Parker’s teams have both had obvious success and neither is a great 3 pt shooter.