“You ever just know something, Mr. Nash?” – General
“Constantly.” – John Nash
I’m in full belief that I have a gift for recognizing talent. I could be full of crap. But it’s the belief that I have.
Now clearly, just about everyone not named Andrew Bynum has required basketball talent in order to make it to the NBA. We never fully get to realize just how good these guys are. We read tales of players like Wally Szczerbiak and Peja Stojakovic making 85 out of 100 threes in practice but think they can’t be all that good because when it comes to in-game, crunch time situations, they rarely come through for their fans. But their talent is off the charts.
I’m narcissistic (or maybe delusional or maybe both) enough to believe that I can look at any player and tell you whether or not they’ll be great or not, simply by watching them play for no more than a minute. Much like Matt Moore can find writing talent (excluding myself of course; who knows what the hell he was thinking there?), I can find an NBA player and tell you if he’s one of the special ones.
But when nobody else outside of a certain Pacific Northwest, rabid fanbase can see what you see, at what point are they completely ignorant or are you completely wrong? At what point do you trick yourself into seeing what isn’t there or realize you hit the jackpot of evaluation by recognizing what others simply choose not to see?
Welcome to my obsession with Greg Oden.
We all know the tales of Gregory Wayne Oden, Jr. He was an All-American at the high school and college level. He was the number one overall pick over the smooth scoring Kevin Durant. He had micro-fracture surgery before his pro career even started and instantly started getting catcalls that referenced Sam Bowie. Bill Simmons thinks he’s a bust while having stated in consecutive pre-season podcasts how good Andris Biedrins and Andrew Bynum are with his buddy, Joe House. Oden is a running joke right now amongst those that don’t cheer for the Rose City. Hell, he’s probably even a joke or punch line for you and your friends.
But I have to tell you something.
You’re wrong.
Greg Oden is a beast of a man, ready to unleash hell on the rest of the NBA. He’s a rebounding vacuum. He’s a shot-blocking, missile defense system that the Pentagon would be envious of. He has an Ike and Tina kind of relationship with the rim on offense. He’s a decent enough free throw shooter and he moves as smartly without the ball as any young center in the NBA. Greg Oden is not only a good player; he’s a sure-fire perennial All-Star who will help his team win a couple of titles. He’s a Defensive Player of the Year a couple times over.
I could try to get my Kevin Pelton on right now and spout off all of the pertinent statistics that tell me I’m right about how good he can be. I could mention his Per 36 averages of 14.8 points and 11.6 rebounds per game. But that wouldn’t convince you. I could mention that he was one of the top rebounders in the league last year based on rebounding percentage but you wouldn’t care about that. I could mention that his offensive rating was 12 points higher than his defensive rating but you would just scoff. I could mention that Greg Oden is one of 12 centers in NBA history to get 4.3 Win Shares or greater as a 21-year old rookie or that his PER was 18.1 last year or that he is far more athletic and skilled than you could ever imagine but you think he sucks and is a bust.
But then again, you don’t see what I see with Greg.
Wait; do I actually see what I see with Greg?
You see injuries, slow feet, and an awkward shuffle up court.
I see powerful dunks, skying for blocked shots, and brute strength unlikely to be matched by feats of feeble young giants.
You see Pyrite, sedentary in a hearth of failure.
I see 1970s Solid Gold magic.
And that’s where a man by the name of John Nash and the movie portrayal of his life come into play.
In A Beautiful Mind, John Nash is the type of genius that nobody can understand. He sees codes where others see inanimate objects of little consequence. He finds diamonds in the rough, military plans in a wall of numbers and trends in months of magazine articles. He’s the greatest mathematical mind that had the gall to disprove 150 years of economic understanding. He is a protractor’s wet dream.
He’s also completely F’ing insane. He believes he’s being chased down by Russians and has an imaginary roommate from college who also has an imaginary niece. He thinks that he’s been decoding secret Soviet messages and helping the Department of Defense when in fact he’s been mumbling gibberish and stuffing nonsensical letters into random mailboxes. He hallucinated half of his life’s work and personal interactions and needed intense therapy for psychosis. Eventually, he learns how to balance medications and his own gift for seeing things that nobody else can sees (in a sane way) but it raises two questions for me, one being in regards to him and one being in regards to me and Greg Oden.
Does it make what Nash experienced any less real if it was ultimately a hallucination?
And am I cracking code with who Greg Oden really is or just hallucinating a college roommate that I wish I had?
Personally, I tend to think I’m right about this. Then again, John Nash thought he was ripping Sputnik a new one. For those who think Greg Oden is a bad basketball player and a bust, you’re absolutely dead wrong, no matter how crazy I am about this guy. The more appropriate question with Oden is how healthy can he be? He seems to have suffered a series of freak accidents in his career with injuries.
He broke his wrist right before his college career began and never fully healed until the NCAA title game. He needed micro-fracture surgery on his knee before his pro career could start but it was such a small area of his knee that needed the cartilage rebuild that it couldn’t have been a better and easier surgery. He hurt his foot playing against the Lakers on opening night this past season and the Blazers cautiously sat him for weeks on end.
He’s never had a string of injuries like a Danny Manning or a Yao Ming. He’s just had the on-the-job kind of luck Tim “The Tool Man” Taylor. And that’s why I think he has the ability and the likelihood to be great.
He’s never been in true NBA shape. He’s been conserving his explosiveness and his aggressiveness in order to make sure the knee heals properly. This off-season, he’s apparently been shedding pounds and moving much better as he trains. He will no longer have that twinge in the back of his mind keeping him from moving properly on the floor in fear of facing another physical step backwards. Those were the type of things keeping him from being in position properly last year while he racked up nearly four fouls per game in just 21.5 minutes each night.
With more confidence in his movement and therefore more confidence in his game, you’re going to see a lethal attack of two-handed jams while he throws his pelvis in the air ala Shaq. You’re going to see him swatting weak floaters in a single bound. You’re going to see drop steps and hooks with both hands landing like he was Bernard Hopkins. If there is a rebound to be had, he will have it. He won’t be an All-Star next year. He won’t lead his team to the title next year. And he won’t score even half the points that Kevin Durant puts up.
But the foundation will be laid. And he will be established as the next big thing.
In A Beautiful Mind John Nash said, “You have no respect for cognitive reverie.” I believe that at this current moment, I haven’t convinced you to change your mind on Greg Oden. I believe that you read my cognitive reverie about this giant and believe me to be hallucinating. But I’m confident in my assertions.
Sometimes, you just know something.
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You’re dead on, and I feel the same. For me it’s just being a baller my whole life. I just look at him for a minute and think “this guy is the $4!+”. He is obviously a superior athlete and great player waiting to happen. As an athlete, you recognize that all the problems he has are easily fixable, as long as he stays healthy.
If I saw this guy in the gym I would crap myself. People don’t get it. He just has it. But it’s not just us.
Bynum is pretty talented himself, but not like this guy. Just wait ’till he gets it goin.
Brandon Roy feels exactly the same way, for exactly the same reason. And I think most all current players respect him. Even Shaq — who really doesn’t respect Oden personally — sees that he will be dominant in a couple years. And the great Yao himself said that nobody can guard him like Oden does — nobody. The other elites see it already.
There is absoltely no doubt Greg will be an all-star a number of times if he stays healthy. But that really is an understatement of his potential. He will also average a double double this year; and pull his weight on the Blazers’ next championship team.
But I’m not doubting my sanity like you. I just believe everyone who calls him a bust is a MORON.
While I read this post I got fouled by Greg Oden
Love Greg Oden, watched him kill people with one arm at OSU and foul out all of Florida’s big men in the Championship game. As soon as he has some time without injury he will dominate.
He fouls a lot.
It takes a beautiful mind to see the hidden gem that is a HS and college All-American who was the number 1 draft pick. But I agree, he will be a good one.
It should be mentioned that Andrew Bynum had a PER of 20 last year (to Oden’s 18), which was 4th best among centers. Perhaps you should use your skills to re-evaluate Bynum.
Wow. Great article… loved the reference of Oden to Tim “the tool man” Taylor lol. I like this guy, i’m a Blazers fan but I don’t know if I just can believe he will be as good as I know he can be. I hope he’s great as you say in this article. We’re going to need him if we want to win a championship.
I’ve been patiently waiting for the explosion of Greg Oden and I know it’s on it’s way.
When it happens, I will win vast sums of money from my friends (read: $20) when I collect on bets we have made.
Zach, you are spot on with this piece.
I’ve watched most of Oden’s games with Portland. I’ll agree with you that he has potential to be a game changer on the defensive end, Mutombo-esque. Once he’s finally in game shape and injury free, he’ll move his feet better and stop picking up cheap fouls on bumps and position calls.
On offense? I’m telling you right now that all he can do is dunk. Seriously. If you think he has offensive superstar potential, I beg to differ. He has no jumpshot. His jumphooks are weak, off-balance push shots that are easy to block and rarely go in. He needs A LOT of work on offense, maybe years-worth.
If healthy, he’ll definitely have a big impact this year, but he’s eons away from being a complete player.
KneeJerk,
I do agree that he needs some work on offense…okay, A LOT of work on offense. But here’s where I think he can excel. He’s really strong. As his foot work gets sharper and he feels more comfortable/confident with his post moves, I think he’ll simply overpower people like Shaq did.
Now, I don’t think he’ll ever be close to as dominant on offense as Shaq was. I’m not saying that. I just think he can probably average 18 ppg with his limited offense coupled with brute strength and athleticism. He’s definitely not the second coming of Hakeem Olajuwon out there.
You’re spot on regarding G.O. He’ll play 30+ MPG this next season and he’ll EASILY put up 15&10. Defensively he will own the paint. Anyone can figure that out.. That is, except for Bill Simmons who is too stupid to figure it out. That guy damages his credibilty everytime he writes a column or opens his mouth.
I do have to say though, there is a limited number of forwards and centers who could have made that up and under look as fresh as a cucumber salad. If he’s got some post moves, his ceiling is not Dikembe Mutombo. It’s a fair statement to say he could end up being a quality offensive option.
And I just got fouled by Greg Oden again.
A few things on this:
1. You’ve been completely unfair to Andrew Bynum for all of the same reasons people are seemingly unfair to Greg Oden. The difference is Oden is hilarious and Bynum is just hilarious looking. You know as well as I do I have a hard time watching the baby from Dinosaurs as a Lakers fan, because he is, at times, frustrating to watch, but he has suffered two freak accidents, and both happened right after he started playing well… but this is a debate best saved for another day.
2. While reading this, highlights to the bum ass Dodgers’ game came on Sports Center so I stopped to watch, and resumed reading from “…He’s just had the on-the-job kind of luck Tim “The Tool Man” Taylor. And that’s why I think he has the ability and the likelihood to be great.” You have no idea how hilarious it is to read those two sentences by themselves when talking about ANYONES potential greatness.
3. Your love for Greg Oden seems like it’s become more of a psychological thing you’ve convinced yourself to believe because of the “I Told You So Factor.” You’ve been an Oden fan for so long and you’ve wanted people to see in him what you’ve seen in him for so long that his prolonged NBA failures have seemingly blinded you to the fact that he just might not be that good. But you’re going to hold on to the assertion that he just may be one of the best of his generation (which he very well may be, this I completely agree with) just so when he makes his first All-NBA Third Team or win the Most Improved player next season with a 14 ppg, 9 rpg, 2 bpg average next season, you’ll finally be able to write a 9,500 word article about how you always knew that he had it in him. You’ll post links to this articles and others, talk about how you drafted him second in your 2010 fantasy league draft (right after I pick up Acie Law III) and post youtube highlights of him blocking three straight Andrew Bynum shots midway through the fourth quarter in the Rose Garden (probably late in the season, two games after Bynum returns from knee surgery because Ron Artest will accidently run into his knee in Memphis in January), a game that the Lakers will ultimately lose because Kobe will miss a late 17 footer while being guarded by three Blazers while up one, and Brandon Roy will come down the other end, take a shot equally as tough, but nail it, because that’s what always happens when the Lakers go to Portland. Then he’ll get hurt when Team USA invites him to tryout to play for them in the World Championships next summer and you’ll be right back to where you started.
4. Great work, though. Brilliantly written.
Oden and Bynum were both trash in the playoffs. Bynum also benefits from having very complimentary players on his team.
Phillip,
Do you think I would limit myself to just 9,500 words if Greg Oden wins MIP? I’m going to write a book!
Personally, I don’t feel like I’m at the “I Told You So Factor” yet. But two more years of him fouling constantly and not developing on offense will definitely throw me there. And I completely recognize the irony of me hating Bynum for the reasons I love Oden. I find it to be whimsical.
Not to be uber-contrarian here but did you watch Bynum’s month of January before he got injured last year? 42-15 against the Clippers. 5 games in a row with double digit boards. Sick.
KneeJerk,
Here is my irrational refutation of the 42-15 game. It was against DeAndre Jordan and Jordan got 23-12 against Bynum.
Now here’s my semi-rational take on the whole thing… 42-15 is damn impressive. In fact, Bynum’s month of January and the previous season were scary impressive. He plays really well off of the other players and I’m shocked that with those teammates and in that system he shoots under 75% from the field. My hangup with Bynum is the mental toughness factor. I just don’t think he has the mental toughness to be great. He seemed to have it when he dunked on Shaq all those years ago but since then, I haven’t seen it at all.
Maybe I’m looking through jaded eyes when I look at him. That’s a great possibility. I just like Oden better.
Good post, but then again Simmons thinks himself the same way as you do, as a man you can tell talent by far. Now.. he writes for ESPN,you write for a small relatively unknown blog, if one had to bet who is the delusional one (you or Simmons), who do you think people would put their money on?
Zack Harper
You should be drug tested immediately. Greg Oden is a fouling machine who will always be plagued with injuries. Even though he has massive size, he is soft as toilet tissue. So many times last year he was barely touched and he acted like he was shot. Out west Oden will have a very hard time making the Allstar game in the next 2-4 years.
So if D. Jordan is so bad, let’s see what Oden did against him. In the one game they played against each other, Oden had 16/6.
Yep, way better than 42/15.
Oh, wait, no it’s not.
I’ve seen Oden’s dunk get blocked by the rim at least three times last year. He doesn’t jump very well, he has no off moves. He’s a one dimensional player.
He’s like Camby without any off. Plus, he gets hurt just jumping. Really, he is another Bowie.
Sorry.
Greg Oden is garbage
RedRum,
I’d like to think that people would assume Simmons and I are both idiotic blowhards. But if it’s one or the other, I’m pretty sure I get the nod there.
1. Simmons is a complete and utter idiot.
2. Oden didn’t do squats or any other serious leg strengthening exercises until this summer. Thus, the rim checks. And, on those rim checks, if you watch closely, you’ll see a hand shoving him. It’s sneaky, so I’d understand why people missed.
3. Oden allowed Przybilla to have his best year ever.
4. When Oden checked into a game, the other team’s strategy changed. Maybe it worked last year, but forcing a team to account for you is pretty telling as to what kind of effect you have out there.
5. Portland was in the lower half of rebounding teams before Oden played. Now, they’re near the very top, and are at the top considering percentages. That’s not because they added R. Fernandez and Bayless.
6. If you’re biggest problem isn’t a lack of talent but trouble staying on the court due to foul trouble, that does not make you a bad player.
7. Teams try very hard to take him out of the game. Why would they do that to a player that’s not already disturbing them. If I were defending Kobe, I don’t think he’d be trying to get me out of the game.
Yea, Oden didn’t do everything he could have last year. But, he made a HUGE contribution to that Blazers team. His presence on the floor changed the game for the better. His biggest problem is staying on the court. Solve that, and he’ll be a beast.
Zach, I like the Gary Payton-level defense of Greg Oden. Glad I’m not the only one defending the Bearded Buckeye. When the Blazers win a title (or two) I’ll pin this on my wall like a John Nash web of conspiracy and high-five all seven of your imaginary friends.
Zach: I originally started typing 28,000 words, but I just felt you’d be too busy for that, but you writing a book about it makes sense considering I’ll start writing a book the day after Acie Law drops 70 in a game (46 of that will come in the 4th quarter where he thrived in his senior season in college).
Yay: I’m 5’9” and when I go to the park, it’s not okay for me to get hung when I try to dunk. I don’t care if he had Whoopi Goldberg on his back while being rammed in the back by a bison (or Zach Randolph), it’s never okay for a 7-footer to get hung. And you can associate any improvements with Portland with the accusation of Rudy the great Fernandez lol.
This is the best article I have read on anything having to do with Greg Oden – ever!
I checked his per minute stats and they were better than KD’s in his rookie season.
Oden is a beast, and it’s about time somebody with a brain stood up and recognized it.
>>>>
And, on those rim checks, if you watch closely, you’ll see a hand shoving him. It’s sneaky, so I’d understand why people missed.
>>>>
Nope, all 3 were uncontested dunks. No one touched him, he just couldn’t jump. Twice the guy guarding him had his back to Oden.
Anyone who watched Greg play against Milwaukee last season at the RG saw what he can do. Greg was not healthy at any point last year, he was also above his playing weight and his legs were out of shape. Still he dominated that game and the Blazers won easily. That was the only full game in which I saw Greg looking comfortable and moving fluidly. All the haters love taking shots at him, but they will be silenced in a year or two. Some other players who looked terrible in their first year: Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard, Yao Ming, Steve Nash, etc.
Zach,
Greg Oden won’t be a bust because he’s going to be terrible, he will be a bust because of what he he seemingly had the ability to be and who he was drafted over.
First of all, let’s talk about the fact that people mention Sam Bowie as the biggest bust of all time because of who he was drafted over. The player a team could have drafted always has to factor into how big of a bust their actual pick was; because, ultimately at the time (draft night) they were saying, “We think this guy is better than X other guys.” The X in this case is Kevin Durant, a player who will be (already is) exponentially better than Greg Oden. Durant has multiple MVP’s ability, while Oden will be lucky to be on a few all-star teams, if he can even win the starting job from Joel Pryzbylla.
Second, expectations always have to factor into whether someone is a bust or not. Greg Oden was expected to be the next great center. He was lumped into a category with the likes of Shaq, Duncan, Robinson, Olajuwon, Ewing, etc. He won’t even come close to being that caliber of a player. Check those guys rookie stats. Oden doesn’t even sniff them. Hell, he couldn’t even start in his rookie year.
Third, you criticize Bynum for being soft? Oden has zero mental toughness and I question how much he even likes basketball. He was quoted at Ohio State as saying that he would have rather been an accountant. He doesn’t have the will power to be great at this game, because he doesn’t eat/breathe/sleep basketball. Someone said that he just started doing leg squats like that was a good thing? Why wasn’t he doing them the whole time? Any guy who had a great competitive drive would have been doing whatever it took to get better since day 1. That’s something you have to do if you want to be great at the NBA level. It’s something all the greats do. Which brings me to my next point…
Fourth, he’s never dominated at any level. Sure he’s been on good teams but he’s never put up dominate stats. Check out the high school stats of some of those other centers I mentioned above. They’re Chamberlain-esque. Oden’s not even in the same league. And if you watched those Ohio State games he wasn’t even the best player on his college team. And since Michael Conley was on his AAU team too, I guess he wasn’t the best player on those teams either. He never took over games the way great players do.
Finally, I take into account that he was hurt in college. But you should take into account that two out of the three years he’s played high-level competitive basketball, he’s been hurt. He may be 21 on his birth certificate but his body is much older. Physically, the rate you grow at is fairly close to as old as you actually are. If you look like you’re almost 40, then your body might be closer to 40 than it is 21. He might be injury-prone for the rest of his career for this very reason.
You might want to try winning a nobel prize before you compare your cognitive ability to that of John Nash. A few youtube clips does not a great player make. See: Every draft highlight reel of every player ever. You’re wrong on this one buddy.
Anyone who thinks Oden is or even will be a better player than Kevin Durant is either stupid, or hasn’t seen Durant play enough. Durant is the only player his size to come the NBA with an NBA jumpshot. Kobe, Lebron, Wade or any other NBA superstar you name that plays today did not have a good jumper when they arrived in the league. Durant has a jumper as good as any player who creates their own shot besides Kobe. He is super young and super mobile. Kobe guarded him in two games last year and Durant splashed on him!!!! Do not sleep! Durant will end up being better than Roy! Portland will be sorry.
Brilliant post! I agree completely about Oden. I also wrote a blog post about him, although not as good as yours:
http://tinyurl.com/cdygkx
Doug,
Let me address the points you make in order.
1. Completely valid point here about people considering him a bust because he was taken ahead of Durant. There’s no refuting that. But you make a remark about “if he can even win the starting job from Joel Pryzbilla” and that’s where you lost me. We’ll get to that a bit with point #2.
2. You mention that he won’t compare to the likes of Shaq, Duncan, etc. but even in the players you mention, there is a clear hierarchy. Duncan, Olajuwon and Shaq were far better and more impacting players than Robinson and Ewing. So let’s take the worst one of that lot, Patrick Ewing. Ewing was the #1 option as a rookie on a poor Knicks team. By taking his Per 36 against Oden’s here are how the stats shake out with Ewings being first.
Scoring- 20.3 vs. 14.8
Rebounding- 9.2 vs. 11.6
Blocks- 2.1 vs. 1.9
FG%- 47.4% vs. 56.4%
PER- 17.4 vs. 18.1
Now, those aren’t overwhelming numbers when comparing Ewing to Oden and I think it’s safe to say that based on rookie numbers, it’s far too early for you to make your assertion that “Oden doesn’t sniff them.” As to Oden not starting and not playing ALL that well at times, he was recovering from major knee surgery. I think while he shouldn’t get a pass there for the injuries he’s suffered, he should get a little more leeway for performing the way he did in his first year back from micro-fracture.
3. I can’t speak to the mental makeup of him. Actually, I can’t defend the mental makeup of him because the points you make are irrefutable. Until you get to why wasn’t he doing leg squats? He wasn’t doing leg squats because it would have been detrimental to his rehab for him to put that kind of stress on a surgically repaired knee. That part had nothing to do with desire. It was smart physical therapy.
4. He actually did dominate at the high school level. It may not have been Kareem at Power but that’s pretty much relative, isn’t it? He won player of the year as a junior (only LBJ has done that) and he led his team to two straight state titles in New Jersey. Perhaps he didn’t dominate at Ohio State because he was never able to use his dominant hand. He broke his wrist before the season started and was almost completely limited to using his left. To do what he did with his off-hand may not be completely dominant but it was still pretty impressive. Not to mention, he took his team to the final game. Sure, Cook and Conley were great but they didn’t take off until he was back and turning away everything in the paint.
5. Now as for him being hurt in 2 out of 3 years at high-competitive basketball, that’s where you’ve got me. There is no defense of that. I don’t know about him moving like he’s 40 because I’ve never seen 40-yr old guys with that athleticism. But the injury-prone three years that he’s just endured are definitely the biggest question he’ll face over the next few years. Guys like Zyndrunas Ilguaskas were eventually able to shake the injuries but then again, Z had completely different injuries than Oden. Once again, nothing I can say to refute your point there.
6. This was my biggest mistake was having the piece come across like I was comparing my cognitive capacity to Nash. I was more trying to compare the fact that I might be completely insane and hallucinating in my adoration of Oden by using the example of A Beautiful Mind. You can obviously tell by my writing I am no John Nash. Although if I can figure out a way to get Greg Oden perennially healthy and turn him into Bill Russell, maybe I’ll get consideration. ;)
Great comments by the way. I love the discussion that you brought up here.
Oden took his first major step forward a couple of hours ago as the us minicamp opened up in Vegas. According to reports, Greg dominated just about everyone and everything defensively. Here’s a few of them, most from Twitter.com.
Coach Jay Triano from the Toronto Raptors: “Oden was the surprise of the practice. He shut down everthing inside.”
“He looks great. I don’t think I can make any definative statements about whether he has lost weight, but he looks athletic to me.”
“Greg still drawing the biggest crowd when it comes to media attention.”
“Iggy joins the list of players to have their attempts at the bucket denied by GO. Refs calling games, and no, fouls have not been an issue.”
“Oden showing some serious instinct during 5 on 5 defensive drills. I’ve counted at least 3 blocks.”
“Greg just stuffed Jeff Green at the hoop with extreme prejudice. GO showed a little swag after that.”
“It’s also a chance for Oden to finally impress the USA Basketball leaders who invited him to play in 2006 and ’07, only to see him pull out with a variety of injuries. He looked sharp during workouts Thursday, blocking several shots and grabbing rebounds of others that did get to the basket.” (AP news story)
Greg’s going to be for real…like it or not.
Lyndon Johnson was player of the year as a junior? Who knew?
I live in Portland and went to quite a few games last year, not to mention watching every single other game on tv.
Oden doesn’t have anything extraordinary imo. Even that dunk on Bynum, although it was a nice move, he cannot elevate. These are the years where he should be explosive, but he just doesn’t possess the athletic ability.
He will improve with his fundamentals, but he is a role player at best. He fouls more per minute than any other player in the league.
Look, I like this guy ALOT. He is a great kid with tons of pressure to live up to a level he will never meet.
People have to readjust their expectations of Oden. He deserves it.
That is awesome that Greg is thriving at the summer league.
But let’s not pretend that summer league success means diddlysquat.
I remember the hype about the guy who was the biggest suprise and he dominated summer league. He was a European player who was hitting 3′s everywhere and slashing to the hoop and collecting assists like mad.
I don’t remember his name though, since his name didn’t come up once in the regular season.
Zach,
Oden played high school basketball in Indiana not New Jersey. He was also the most dominant force the state has ever seen. It is easy for conley to look good when everyone on the court is focused on defending someone else. completely agree with the article.
Ya, someone at work was blabbing to me about the state of New Jersey as I was responding and pretending to work. I’m an idiot.
Jim,
Greg is apparently dominating the Team USA mini-camp. Still it’s not regular season basketball but definitely a step up from Summer League.
Jim,
The reason Oden wasn’t explosive last year was that it was his first year back from microfracture. It’s been the trend with NBA players that they don’t get their full athleticism back until 2 years after the surgery. If he isn’t explosive this year then it’d be an issue of concern IMO but you can’t make judgements on how athletic he will be in the NBA based on last year.
The fouls is another thing that can partially attributed to not having his full quickness back. A lot of those fouls came on Oden being quick enough on his rotations because his lateral speed was lacking.
Also you have to consider that he was a rookie big man…..most rookie big men have issues with fouling. Learning the NBA style of play and the refs learning them are common issues. If people think that he’s going to continue to foul like a rookie for the rest of his career then they’re just being foolish.
Bynum and Oden are both going to be good.
Maybe he’ll become the defensive force people expected from him. He’s going to be able to stay on the floor for longer as nobody can continue to foul at the rate he did last season. So all in all, more minutes will lead to more blocks, rebounds, all good stuff. But offensively and in terms of being an all-time great big man, I just don’t see it. He’ll be the first great big man to lack any fluidity in his footwork and he was like that before he injured his knees. When he spins in the post, it’s like the dial of clock. He moves in increments. It takes him like three turns of his feet to execute a full spin.
Oden owned bynum and james in those clips.
Oden makes all-star team next year thanks to Yao not being voted in.
Okay,
So– I like the article. Alot. It’s clever and funny and has a great through line. And I’d love to agree with it. Because I love the Blazers and would hope for all the things you say about Oden to be true. I want you to be right.
But you’re not.
As far as your ability as a talent scout…Hmm…I can’t think of a hoops fan who doesn’t feel that way. We’re all the self-flattering, “no one sees what I see” type. I’ll put it to you like this: I think I’m an impeccable judge of talent too and I think the Blazers should have picked Durant. Durant’s ceiling is higher than Kobe’s. Greg Oden is not now, nor will he ever be in that range. So I win as a talent scout, right? And I say Oden’s best is 15 and 12. Not bad. Quite good in fact, maybe even all-star sub range– but not superstar material.
Be logical, every stat you’ve quoted has been adjusted as a PER. Greg Oden’s fouls per 48 minutes are NINE. He’ll never get to play anywhere near that sort of time. The other major fallacy is that you and many like minded commenters qualify your statements with: “if he stays healthy.” But when will people understand: STAYING HEALTHY IS A SKILL. Especially for big men. Oden lacks that skill. He’ll be hurt more and more and you and your commenters will feel like you have the right to put an asterisk next to your toppled claims of G.O. greatness. But you don’t. Some injuries are freak occurrences and some injuries are dictated by body-type, flexibility, hand-eye coordination, etc. I don’t think Oden can stay healthy.
Remember, John Nash used mathematical proofs and you’re using youtube clips compiled by twelve year olds in between marathon porn-viewing sessions. If you want me to find a youtube clip of Oden getting torn up by Martian Gorat I’m sure I could. There’s probably even one set to R. Kelly singing “World’s Greatest” created by a sarcastic eighth grader. The words “Rafer Alston” should be enough to remind you that all the highlights in the world don’t necessarily equal stardom.
So here’s my offer. Let’s put our skills to the test. Here are some Gentleman’s Bets I’d be happy to make with you:
1) G.O.’s number of seasons without missing a single game (playoffs included): ZERO.
2) G.O.’s number of times averaging above 20pts/game: ZERO.
3) G.O.’s number of all NBA appearances: ZERO
for next season:
1) G.O.’s pts/gm: >16
2) G.O.’s rebs/gm: >12
3: G.O.’s fouls per 48 minutes: <6
Are you game?
Keep in mind, the Blazers could have had Durant. They chose Oden. This means they thought he would be better. Tell me you wouldn’t trade Oden for Durant today and be happy about it. I dare you.
So in that case, compared to who we should have taken, this will be a busted pick.
Steve,
I don’t think I stated once that he was better than Durant. I think it’s irrelevant to compare a small forward who’s asked to score to a center who’s asked to defend the basket. They have different roles as leaders for the team. Hell, with as good as Brandon Roy is, I doubt Oden will ever be asked to lead the Blazers to anything. But do I think that Oden can be as good at his role as Durant is with his? Absolutely.
A quick aside on Durant, while I agree with many here that he has MVP-talent, that doesn’t mean he’ll have the better career. If you’re just tallying up scoring titles and points then he’ll dominate Oden. But remember how good and absurd Tracy McGrady’s scoring talent was when he bolted from Toronto to Orlando? He was even argued to be as good as Kobe after his second season with the Magic and while he probably wasn’t, it was a conversation that was valid to consider. If Durant turns into an above average defender to go with his offensive wizardry, then he’ll be light years ahead of Oden in terms of impact. Otherwise, you’re just comparing apples and oranges with Durant’s scoring against Oden’s defensive dominance. You ask me to be logical but thinking Durant’s ceiling is higher than Kobe’s seems illogical. Durant is a terrible defender. Kobe was not at age 20/21.
Also, I don’t think I see what everybody else can’t. I just see that Oden is much better than the bust people claim him to be. I’m not the only one.
With the stats I quoted, they’re actually fairly realistic. Nobody is playing 48 minutes per game so the fact that his fouls per 48 number is nine seems kind of absurd to me. Now, Oden’s Per 36 fouls is 6.5. That’s a much more damning stat than the Per 48 because it’s probably the minutes per game that he’ll actually play at some point in his career.
Now, here’s where we agree; staying healthy is ABSOLUTELY a skill. And that’s where the hangup with Oden is. If in the next three years, he hasn’t played in 85% of the games then the asterisk that you mention should be taken away from the argument and he should be labeled as an always injured player who couldn’t hack it physically.
I didn’t try to prove my “analysis”/over-adoration of Oden with YouTube clips. I just like having articles where there are cool pictures or good videos. That’s all. Although if you had World’s Greatest over some Rafer Alston highlights, I might be compelled to write a love letter about Skip To My Lou as well. /kidding
Finally for the Gentlemen’s Bet, I wouldn’t take the first career bet because I don’t think you can expect centers to play every single game. But I’d be willing to take the other two (assuming we’re talking about any All NBA team — first, second, third, etc.). If it’s just first team then I decline that one as well. But I think he can have at least one season with 20 per game.
For next season, if you had the rebounds at 10, I’d take that one. I’m not completely convinced that he’ll beat 11 so I certainly wouldn’t do 12. After all, it’s just his second year. Like I said earlier, fouls per 48 is not a good stat to me. But if you put that >6 for fouls per 36, I’d take it. Even if you put it at 5 per 36, I’ll probably take that as well. I’m not touching points with him.
I would absolutely trade Oden for Durant right now because Durant is a known commodity. But in five years, I might be more inclined to have a dominant defensive force than a slick-scoring Durant, especially with Roy on the team.
Great comments.
I don’t know if I agree with this post. I once felt Oden was going to be a superstar, a sure-fire franchise player like Tim Duncan, but that was when he was college, before the injuries, when he was a chiseled and athletic freak like the young David Robinson. Then he got hurt, and he couldn’t really do aerobic stuff because he couldn’t run, so he spent a whole year just lifting weights, and now he’s just big and bulky and not nearly as explosive. Dude’s a monster, so he still throws guys around down low with his pure size and strength, and he makes some startling plays every now and then, but he’s not the same guy I thought was going to lead a team to multiple championships. It’s a shame, because he could have been special. I rooted for him this season, to do well, because it’s in the best interest of every true hoop fan to see someone with great potential realize it – but during the writing of this comment, I just came to the realization that that potential is no longer what it was. Actually, when he was in college I thought what Oden had was promise, more than mere potential – now I’m just hoping to salvage a disheartening disappointment (doesn’t even feel right calling it a disappointment, since he got hurt). I’m going to go to sleep now.
Zach:
Your power of persuasion (and the fact that I watched the youtube videos a second time) has me leaning in your direction. I can still think of ten NBA centers (including Yao with a broken foot) that I’d rather have if I was charged with winning a championship next season– and I still insist that it was a fool’s pick (if we had gotten Durant and needed a center that bad, we’d have the best trade bait on our hands ever).
In the NBA you have to compare apples and oranges, that’s how trades are orchestrated and talent is valued. Kevin Pritchard’s job is apples vs. oranges. And Durant’s apples are way, way more valuable than Oden’s oranges. Imagine how quickly Minnesota would trade us the rights to Ricky Rubio for Durant if we had sat on him for the past two years. We could have gotten Portland native Kevin Love thrown in. We obviously have a point guard problem– how great would it be to have Ruby throwing lobs to Roy and Aldridge?
I think you’re tough on Durant too– sure his defense is weak but check his stats in season 2 against Kobe’s in season 4– it’s nip and tuck.
Tell me who I can legitimately compare Oden to if not Sam Bowie?
Check out this career statline and tell me the odds that Greg Oden’s career stats will compare favorably:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bowiesa01.html
So let’s make some bets:
I’ll put rebounds at 10.5.
I’ll also bet against 20 points per game for any season in which he plays 50+ games.
+5 Fouls for 36 minutes for next year, I’m in.
Lastly,
Here– found with shockingly little effort– is a Rafer Alston “World’s Greatest” video. I expect the Skip to My Lou Mega-Fan article to follow soon.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25G4esmMPuY
The thing about Oden becoming a dominant defensive force is that he might not have the skill set to become one with how the game is played today. You have to be able to defend the pick and roll and also defend out to the perimeter, in addition to performing all the other classic traits like protecting the basket and playing tough post defend, to be considered a great defensive big man. Those are all things Howard, Duncan, Garnett, Rasheed and yes even Kendrick Perkins can do. I’m not sure Oden has the agility to do that. He might look more agile next season if he’s healthier, but that remains to be seen.
Even in five years, Durant will still be the better pick. Durant, Roy and Aldrige–that’s a championship caliber trio. To have two great perimeter scorers as well as a great scoring big man is just too deadly.
Comparing Oden to Patrick Ewing is so disrespectful to Ewing I dont know where to start. Ewing was a dominant defender and athlete who kept evolving his game into a fantastic jump shooting center. Ewing got injured his rookie year but then continued to become a legit hall of fame center in an era of true centers. Oden is a center in a league full of forwards and is awful. He won nothing in college and will lead Portland no where. Ewing won a title in college, went to the finals and played against real centers like Hakeem the dream. Oden will be compared to Bynum…..neither will be remembered 20 years from now. Ewing played against Smits,Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, Sabonis, you know actual centers who people will remember fondly. Oden and Bynum get compared by default. Oden is awful. Per is a joke statistic, anyone who thinks they know talent by watching someone never relies on PER to make their arguments. People who “know” talent, know that the game cant be quantified in numbers…. especially bull shit hollinger numbers. Now I am going to apologize because clearly im a bitter jaded Knicks fan who misses Ewing in the worst kind of way. I hope Oden gets healthy someday only because the the Blazers and their fans still care about him while the Knicks disrespected Ewing on his way out and his curse will haunt us until the end.
This was a great read. I am also a big believer in Greg Oden. Just by looking at his skill set already you can tell he is going to be really good (barring injuries, of course). To call him a bust so early in his career is absolutely ludicrous.
last season see oden got too big when he was out with the microfacture surgery so if he’s losing weight getting back to being mobile it’ll be a good thing.
and remember he still doesn’t know how to play ball yet. I mean he was obviously bigger than everyone in high school and played bout half a season in college on a team that was loaded.
in the league he’s played a lil over half a season but he was relearning to trust a knee, a lot heavier than he’s used to being and was playing uneven minutes.
So let’s say he gets about 30 mins this year(which I think he needs). I’d figure averages of about 13 and 9 and 2 blocks. Pretty good, and this will be his first year really learning the game and having two legs he can trust.
I may be the only one but I think Durant is overrated. He’ll be a superstar but I don’t see him as a singular franchise player like a kobe or bron or wade. He’s a scorer, not a rebounder, not a passer. Not that he can’t do those things I’m saying that to be a closer he’d have to do those well. I don’t think Durant is on Paul Pierce’s level even. But he’ll score no doubt. He’ll score a lot and that will cloud people’s judgement for a couple years. They’ll say oh Durant averaged 28 this year and Oden wasn’t close to 20. Well I see Oden topping out at about 18ppg. His impact will be much more though.
Disgruntled Knicks Fan,
The only reason I compared Oden to Ewing was because of the group of great centers I was given, Ewing was the worst of the lot and I just wanted to compare where their numbers were after their respective rookie seasons.
I think PER is a good measure of how efficient players are. I’m not sold on it saying that this guy is good or not good. But I think you can measure if a guy has stats help the team more than someone like an Antoine Walker.
And if I had gone through what you have gone through as a fan and had to talk myself into Eddy Curry, I’d be disgruntled too.
Ewing had great off moves. His jumper was solid, and until his knees went (like Oden’s will), his defense was very good. Oden can only dunk….. sometimes. No jumper, no good footwork. Yes, he’s big and strong, but the history of the NBA is littered with big men who just faded away. Tskitishvili, Olowokandi, Milicic, Tractor Traylor, Robert Swift etc.
All were touted but didn’t have the two way skills….. or desire.
I wouldn’t give a rusted penny for the thoughts of the haters and Oden/foul comments on this board. I’ll take the opinions of opposing coaches and star players over these idiot punks, and those professional opinions view Oden as a beast with crazy upside. You Bowie shouters had better be marinating your words, because they’re going to be terribly chewy and nasty tasting when you’re eating them in the not-too-distant future.
tall, that’s just about all. he’s risen the level of his clumsy incompetence. he’s gotta bring it night after night all season who wanna bust him. no can do.
the author’s article? dull and labored platitudes.the author is not a narcissist (perhaps he should look it up before he uses the term). his parents probably did not take him seriously. of course he will deny that. but now he’s been told. like nash, he can believe it or not.
I believe it is much too soon to say whether or not Oden will be an All-Star caliber center. This upcoming season will also be a learning curve for Oden, by the end of the year we still won’t be able to guess how good he will be (unless he is just awful or he is incredibly wonderful). It took Bynum 2 years to learn how to play post defense without fouling, it wasn’t until this past season that Bynum was able to be an aggressive defender without fouling (after Bynum returned for the playoffs on his injured knee, he reverted to his foul prone ways; being healthy is a big part of moving your feet so that you avoiding fouls.) Neither Bynum nor Oden look to be Hall-of-Famers, but they certainly seem to have more upside than Andrew Bogut.
Remember how long it took a young man named Jermaine ONeal to develop into an NBA caliber center? Patience is required for young men growing into their full strength. Unfortunately, Oden’s rookie contract will probably expire before the Blazers know whether or not he is worth keeping. The Lakers have gambled that Bynum was worth keeping, giving him 4 years and $58 million, but he hasn’t proven that he deserves that kind of money.
As a Laker fan, I hope that both Bynum and Oden turn out to be quality centers. I would love to see the next four or five years feature epic battles between the two franchises, similar to the entertaining Kings vs Lakers battles at the start of this decade. Kobe vs Roy! Bynum vs Oden! Gasol vs Aldridge! Ariza vs Fernandez – oops, Trevor is gone – Artest vs Fernandez!
As a Laker fan, I was relieved when the Blazers drafted Oden instead of Durant. Oden may be good, but I bought the Bill Simmons argument that Durant is on track to super-stardom. When I imagine a Blazers lineup of Durant/Aldridge/Roy/Fernandez/Zach Randolph – whew! -that would really have given the Lakers trouble.
I am excited to see that Blazers offered Andre Miller that big contract – that means they won’t be trying to steal away Lamar Odom, so now he will HAVE to re-sign with the Lakers. I like Andre Miller a lot, but I like Lamar Odom as a Laker even more.
Why didn’t the Blazers go after Trevor Ariza when Turkolu turned them down? Ariza would have been an ideal fit – young, athletic, defensive minded, and all around good guy.
I always thought Patrick Ewing was overrated. How come his Knicks could never get past the Jordan Bulls, when the Bulls were suiting up stiffs like Longley, Bill Wennington, Uve Blab, Will Perdue or the 100 year old Bill Cartwright? Shouldn’t Ewing have dominated those guys? I thought it was hilarious that the pundits criticized Dwight Howard during this year’s Finals for his lack of post moves – hmm, who is tutoring Mr Howard? Why, it is none other than Patrick Ewing!
Andrew Bynum has learned some excellent footwork from Kareem, he really looked good in the month of January before his latest injury. Hopefully Bynum returns to that form in the upcoming season. I wonder who is tutoring Greg Oden on post play – who are the great former Blazer centers? – Duckworth is dead. Bill Walton has such a bad back he can’t get out of bed. Is Sabonis available to coach Greg Oden?
I thought the contract offer to Paul Millsap was a brilliant move by the Blazers management. The Jazz (a division opponent) HAD to match, and now they are so far over the luxury cap that they will have to trade away Boozer, which will weaken them significantly. Millsap is an energetic guy, but effort and will power only carry you so far – why else did Jerry Sloan start Boozer instead of Millsap as soon as Boozer was healthy? In a conference that features Duncan, Gasol, Stoudemire, Al Jefferson, Aldridge, Nowitski, David West and now Blake Griffin, the Jazz will be starting 6’7″ Paul Millsap and 6’11″ Okur, neither of whom can block a shot.
Lastly, I am puzzled why Paul Allen insists that the Blazers should break even. He is one of the richest men in the world, why should he care if the Blazers lost $20 million a year? Even if the Blazers incurred losses at that incredible rate, it would take 50 years to burn away one billion dollars, and Paul Allen has billions to spare. Paul Allen has a yacht with helicopters and submarines – nothing wrong with that, why should he spend his money on whatever he wants? But Paul Allen doesn’t expect his yacht to break even financially, he keeps it for fun. I would think owning a championship winning Blazers team would be even more fun than a mega-boat, but I’m not a billionaire, so what do I know?
Yikes Tim, take it down a level. It’s like Greg Oden just fouled you or something.
Anyone who say’s “Greg Oden is terrible,” “will be terrible,” “is a bust,” etc, is basically a frickin’ idiot.
The guy is barely old enough to buy a beer, played one season, is currently in the best shape or his life, is completely healthy for the first time in about 3 years, has been primarily a defensive player (which is a tougher skill to learn than offense), and is 7 feet tall (height is the one think you cannot learn).
His upside after 1 year is off the charts, idiots. If you actually think he’s a bust, you’re dumber than a post — a definite moron — the kind of person who needs to have outlet covers in your house because otherwise you’ll electrocute yourself when you try to taste “Electric Juice.”
The stupidity of people never ceases to amaze me . . .
Laker fan in the NW, you are a complete jackass.
“Durant/Aldridge/Roy/Fernandez/Zach Randolph is a lineup that would give LA trouble!”
Sorry, but the Blazers already “give you trouble.” Portland smacked LA with their worst shellacing all season last year in Portland — let alone splitting the season series with theLakers. With that statement alone you have proven yourself to be a fool, but lets move on . . .
“I always thought Patrick Ewing was overrated. How come his Knicks could never get past the Jordan Bulls”
More stupidity. Once Jordan got Scottie Pippin and was in his prime — NO ONE GOT PAST HIM. Not even your beloved Lakers. One man does not make a team. I guess other overrated players include Steve Nash, Karl Malone, Reggie Miller and Dirk Nowitski are/were overrated. You embody so many things that make it easy to hate Laker fans that I’m getting utterly pissed off the more I read your ignorant rantings.
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