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Nichols and Dime: What to Expect From Kobe Bryant, Quarter by Quarter

First was LeBron James. Next was Dwyane Wade. Today I’ll be looking at the shooting tendencies of Kobe Bryant. My methods will be the same as with the first two, so if you have any questions about how or why I do certain things, be sure to check out those first two articles.

Here are Bryant’s shooting tendencies by quarter:

kobebryantshotselectionbyquarter

If you read my pieces about James and Wade, the first thing you’ll notice is that Bryant takes a lot more midrange shots and much fewer close shots than the other two. However, he does have one thing in common: as the game goes on, Kobe favors the three-ball more and more. Those shots make up just 11% of his attempts in the first quarter, but they double to 22% by the fourth. However, unlike the other two, these attempts do not come at the expense of close shots. Close shots do go down slightly, but Kobe also seems to make a concerted effort to get to the line as the game wears on, especially in the fourth quarter. Instead, Bryant chooses to forgo midrange shots (which is a smart decision, as we will see later).

Why is Bryant more relentless at taking it to the basket than James and Wade? Part of it could be a personal mentality, and part of it could be less fatigue. After all, the Lakers can offer much more offensive support for their superstar than the Cavaliers or the Heat. Whatever the reasons, Bryant is able to take more efficient shots (three-pointers) in the fourth than he does in the first.

How about his efficiency on those shots? Let’s take a look:

kobebryantshotefficiencybyquarter

Like most players, Bryant has his ups and downs. However, I see three general trends: midrange efficiency decreases slightly, close efficiency increases slightly, and three-point efficiency peaks in the middle of the game. Still, at all times Bryant is more efficient from three than he is from midrange, so his shot selection trends seem to be wise decisions.

I’d like to keep looking at individual players, but I may switch gears and look at a big man next. The results may be drastically different, so stay tuned.

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Classic case of intellectual over-reaching.

Kobe went from 11% to 22%, Lebron from 17% to 27%, and Wade from 7% to 18%.

So my point is that I have no point, as I didn't look at the exact numbers, it just looked like Wade's 3 point trend was increasing faster than the others based on his graph.

Allen,

Kobe shot a lot of 3's in the 4th Q last year when the Lakers were up or down. He was either trying to get all the points back fast or apply the dagger shot. And the Lakers were the best team in the NBA last year.

I'm not sure if I totally understand your point. LeBron James and Kobe increased their three-point attempts in the fourth quarter as well, and I imagine their teams were generally leading by considerable margins in the fourth.

You should consider that superstar players will shoot more threes in the fourth quarter if their team is down by a moderate margin with time running out. This would mean that Wade probably has a large increase in his 3 point shot attempts in the fourth, since he was on a worse team, and that is confirmed in the stats (both the increase in 3 pt attempts and the worse team). If I'm right, then we'd see Kobe had a larger increase in 4th quarter 3 point attempts back when the Lakers were either missing or barely making the playoffs.