Nichols and Dime: What to Expect From LeBron James, Quarter by Quarter

Last year the Cavs rarely took 4th quarters seriously, so I doubt the data is as meaningful as the author seems to think from a quarter to quarter standpoint.

I'd be interested to see how this compares to the rest of the league - my thoughts are that LeBron's efficiency numbers are better than everyone else's - but I'll leave it to someone else to prove or disprove that.

I think someone else touched on this before, but Lebron is probably less efficient late in the game because the Cavs offense degenerates from having motion, cuts and screens to being Lebron playing 1 on 5 with everyone else getting out of the way.

It's entirely possible that his least-attempted shots are more beneficial because they're just that - least-attempted. Coaches would probably realize that Lebron is going to attack early, and if he's playing late, try to hit threes to gain extra momentum in the late stages of the game. Because of that, if they're keyed up to stop him in those ways, he can destroy them by every so often doing the opposite.

Seems self-reinforcing to me, at least.

Total TS% by quarter would be a nice line addition to the TS% graph in this example and anytime.

Substitute an average frequency of inside takes (and distribute to mid-range and 3 point proportionately or all to mid-range?) and would James just be an average efficiency player in the 4th quarter? The inside is indeed by far his main source of edge, on both frequency and conversion rate.

At some point in the future the Cavs may have him play more PF to try to have him shoot more inside. Though with Moon at the other forward spot he can have the inside on offense as much as he wants it.

Wow, it would be awesome if he did this for Kobe and Wade too.

In David Halberstam's MJ bio - "Playing for Keeps: Michael Jordan and the World He Made", David talks about how Michael would make a concerted effort to get to the rim (or the more likely the line) in the 4th quarter as he lost lift on his jumper. If Michael, who was notorious for never getting tired, had to make that concession to fatigue, it stands to reason that LeBron has the same issue and would probably be better off forcing the action. LeBron does pass more than most great scorers in late game situations though, so it's possible some of what we see with him is that he's taking the shots he has to while looking to make plays rather than focusing solely on scoring.

A lot of good suggestions and a lot of great ideas here. One thing I'll add is that I also looked at James' attempts from the free throw line as the game goes on. This is significant because you'd assume most shooting fouls occur on close attempts, so if close attempts are going down it may just be because shooting fouls are going up. Anyways, after looking at the data, I saw that his free throws do go up slightly in the fourth quarter, but not nearly enough to make up for the phenomenon I wrote about in this article.

I would love to compare these numbers with the 2007-08 season. You have to remember that the Cavs were so good in the regular season last year that LeBron was not often called upon to play well in the second half, let alone the fourth quarter. The lack of urgency could have had a large impact on his shot selection and efficiency.

Great study...but I think you're findings are missing one point: unselfishness (at least in the 1st half).

I think James shoots 3's so well in the 1st quarter because he is more selective...looking to get his teammates involved.

In the 3rd and 4th quarter, he is taking over the game. So while he'll pass on a contested 3 in the first quarter to let Delonte West shoot, in the 4th quarter that balls going up.

I would imagine if you looked at Kobe the pattern would not be the same because he jacks it up all the time...at least that would be my theory.

anyway to compare these efficiencies w/ his minutes played?

pertaining to fatigue, this could be revealing.

especially considering his average minutes were down during the regular season this past season. plus, he plays almost the whole game in the playoffs - what does that do to his efficiency?

i really like this analysis, and being an lbj fan i'd love to see it get deeper.

statgeeks- You're numbers might be way off because if he gets a foul on the act of shootin it affects the percentage quite a bit. Lebron's always been a horrible shooter that is, something that will never be his forte.

Why don't you do a chart on the percentage of fouls lebron receives in a game? It'll show how many superstar fouls each player gets. You could also do it quarter to quarter with wade or any other player. I guarantee you lebron will have the highest, the refs literally make it so if he trips on his way to the basket he'll receive the foul shot.

Great work.

I think alot of it has to do with the cavs halfcourt offense in the final mins is always LeIso resulting in poor shot selection and team camping in the paint.

Awesome analysis.

I often wonder if guys like LeBron are stat geeks. Maybe if he knew this info, he'd put extra effort into going to the basket as the game goes on.

...that's a scary thought.

What an incredibly stupid analysis. As the best team in the regular season, Lebron put the game away as early as the third quarter and many times, didn't have to play in the fourth quarter. I supposed leading the team to an NBA -best 66 win showed the Cavs should have won at least 80 games if Lebron maintained his first qurter efficiency at all times. You know what, Michael Jordan could have won 10 titles if he had the shooting touch of Larry Bird or the passing wizardry of Magic Johnson.

The year before when the Cavs were plagued by the likes of Larry Hughesless, Eric Slow , Amon Ones, Ira Newble, Drew Badden, Lebron was the leading scorer in the fourth quarter and the Cavs registerd the most number of 4th quarter comebacks after trailing at the end of the 3rd quarter in the league.

Could the rise in 3-pointers late in games have to do with coming back from deficits? If the Cavs have a comfortable lead then LeBron is on the bench in the 4th quarter... so they only time he's actually on the floor shooting is if the game is close or if the Cavs are behind.

That would also account for the 3PT% going down, too, since early in the game he can pick and choose his 3-point shot selection. If he's trying to erase a deficit in the 4th quarter, then he's not going to be able to be so picky. And the 3PT TS% is going to go down.

It would be interesting to see the distance of those threes as the game plays out. As a Bucks fan, I remember his rain of near impossible long distance threes that put us away one game. It seems that as the game goes on, his confidence grows and he starts jacking ridiculous shots that no one else would even try. Maybe it's the effect of his commercial, the man thinks he can hit it from anywhere.