As I alluded to in my last post, something I’ve wanted to do for a long time was to make a player rating system that is totally customizable. Every team has different needs at different times, so the one-number-fits-all style of player rating systems, which has been the norm, seems inappropriate in certain situations. Today I would like to explain to you something I’ve created called the TPS (Talent Plus Style) player rating system (movie reference: when I produce TPS reports in the future, just know that I did see the memo and I won’t forget to include the new cover sheet).

Why TPS? As I said in my last article:

Let’s say Shaquille O’Neal rates better than Rashard Lewis in Player Rating System X. The Magic should try to swap Lewis for Shaq, then, right? Obviously not. Orlando needs a big man (calling Lewis “big” is a stretch, but go along with it for now) that can stretch the floor and give space for Dwight Howard down low. Suddenly, we’re doing so much contextual research for Player Rating System X that the player rating itself isn’t that useful anymore. Instead, we’re relying on shooting percentages, shooting tendencies, rebounding ability, defensive ability, etc.

Having the flexibility to specify what you are looking for in particular from a player makes things easier for talent evaluators and more fun for fans. There are a couple of things about TPS that make it very useful:

• Every variation of TPS ratings is adjusted for position. A center who can shoot three-pointers at the league average is much more valuable than a shooting guard with the same efficiency. Likewise, a point guard with a league average rebounding rate is probably pretty good in that respect. Not only does adjusting for position level the playing field, but it also makes it easier to find players who are unconventionally good at things.
• TPS can include my original Composite Score rating system if desired. As you may or may not recall, Composite Score is a combination of the Offensive/Defensive Ratings developed by Dean Oliver, PER /counterpart PER, and offensive/defensive plus-minus. Additionally, if you only like some of those components, you can pick and choose which ones to include. Composite Score often serves as a base for many of the ratings I develop when I’m playing around with TPS. It provides a nice “all-around” measure for players so that even when you want to focus on specific skills, you don’t ignore everything else that occurs on a basketball court.
• There are literally an infinite number of possibilities for how you can rate players. Up to 25 different variables can be included, and each can be assigned a different weight, depending on what’s important.
• Every variable is adjusted either per-minute or per-shot-attempt. Players who perform admirably despite limited playing time will still rate well.

Which variables can be included in TPS player ratings? They can be broken down into three categories:

Composite Score Stats:

• Composite Score
• Offensive Composite Score
• Defensive Composite Score
• Offensive Rating
• PER
• Offensive Plus-Minus
• Defensive Rating
• Counterpart PER
• Defensive Plus-Minus

Shooting Stats:

• Close Attempt Percentage (=close attempts/total shot attempts)
• Close True Shot Percentage
• Midrange and Post Attempt Percentage (=midrange and post attempts/total shot attempts)
• Midrange and Post True Shot Percentage
• Three-Point Attempt Percentage (=three-point attempts/total shot attempts)
• Three-Point True Shot Percentage
• Fouled Attempt Percentage (=fouled shot attempts/total shot attempts)
• Fouled True Shot Percentage
• Assisted Rate (=assisted field goals/total made field goals)

Other Advanced Stats:

• True Shot Percentage
• Free Throws/Field Goal Attempts
• Pure Point Rating
• Assist Rate
• Turnover Rate
• Rebound Rate
• Usage Rate

As you can see, I did not develop all of these statistics (for some I just adjusted them for position and use them as components in my ratings). Offensive and Defensive Ratings were developed by Dean Oliver and can be found at Basketball-Reference.com. PER and many of the other advanced stats were developed by John Hollinger. I used Basketball-Reference and Knickerblogger.net to gather these. For player names and teams, I used Dougstats.com. For positions, plus-minus, and Counterpart PER, I used 82games.com. Additionally, although I calculated the shooting stats myself, similar numbers can be found at 82games. To calculate the shooting stats, I used the play-by-play data available at BasketballValue.com.

The ratings I have come up with so far are all based on a 0-100 scale, with 50 being average. Remember that these ratings are adjusted for position, so a player with a 50 is average for his position.

To give an example of what TPS can do, I have created a rating called Playmaker Score. This number rates players on all of their abilities, but especially their ability to create shots for others. It considers a player’s Composite Score, Assisted Rate, Pure Point Rating, and Assist Rate (remember that Assisted Rate measures how many of a player’s shots were assisted by others while Assist Rate estimates how many of teammates’ field goals an individual player assists on). To see the numbers, go to:

Link

This is just one rating that I threw together pretty quickly. Still, it gives some interesting results and shows what TPS is capable of doing. Over the next few weeks, I will come out with some similar player ratings using TPS. If you have any questions or suggestions, feel free to comment below.

P.S. If you’re wondering what movie I referenced earlier, check out: Link to video

Truth be told, I don’t specifically go out looking for teams to be annoyed at. They just kind of come to me. I mean, I’m definitely the old guy waiting for his lunch who is then mad you put carrots in his soup because I HATE CARROTS. But the Jazz conflict we had last year was born out of a misguided overestimation by pundits and fans about their team being a legit title contender. Having had that dream cruelly yanked away, we’re back to digging Utah with its Mansapp, AK, and Deron the Dodgeball Ninja action.

I’m even more reticent to accept my newest prey, the Trail Blazers. Small market team, progressive general manager, The Big Nifty LaMarcus Aldridge. Lots to love. But this summer has been rough. Got played by Hedo. Lost out on Odom. Didn’t make any big draft moves like in years before. Fernandez getting twitchy. Then used their one big move on Andre Miller, an aging point guard who I’m not sold on as a missing piece.

And now comes the start of camp. And apparently, Nate McMillan, who is my biggest question mark about this squad, is preaching “chemistry.” Which is odd, given the team’s personnel moves.

They locked up Brandon Roy, which was certainly a good move. But they’ve let Aldridge drift in the wind, not locking him up. It’s got to feel to Aldridge like he’s not a top priority. I’m sure the talks that have gone on have been made to assure him that he is, but the fact remains he’s without an extension, one which he’s happy to sign. There have been rumblings about Fernandez being unhappy about a great many things. From Euroball to his role with the team, to how he’s been coached. Which wouldn’t be such a big deal if Fernandez hadn’t played so brilliantly in spots.

Then there’s the point guard fiasco. Team members are all big fans of Steve Blake, even though he’s obviously not the answer at point. Yet, Blake’s still around. Watching, waiting. Missing (UPDATE: He hit 43% from three last season, so basically the lesson is, never trust your perceptions) three pointers. Jerryd Bayless (swoon)? Stewing. Waiting, watching, probably planning on cutting Steve Blake’s brakes. Bayless may not have done enough to earn a spot in McMillan’s rotation (whenever the words “must improve on defense” are said about Bayless, on that crap defensive squad, my blood boils), but surely he’s valuable enough to trade, right? If you’re not going to use him? And that’s all before you get to the veiled threats from Andre Miller. You know, “the missing piece?” Miller doesn’t seem to be integrating. Mostly because he hasn’t been able to practice since he failed his conditioning test, which is an awesome way to start the season. Getting out-conditioned by 58 year old Greg Oden. Conversely, Roy keeps talking about how comfortable he is with Steve Blake.

Maybe that’s what McMillan’s getting at, though. This team needs to improve its chemistry, to dedicate to a team winning formula, since so many are either fresh off of or on the crux of new contracts. And that winning formula includes something that is highly dependent on chemistry, defense. This team must improve dramatically on defense if it’s going to contend for a further playoff push.  They’ve got the talent, they have to put it together.

But with this coach, this frustrated sub-franchise power forward, this surly point guard, and we haven’t even broached the subject of Greg Oden and the Hype Machine of Glory versus Joel Pryzbilla and the Cult of Actually Doing Stuff, they’ve got a long way to go.

But then, that’s really the best part about the Blazers. No matter what happens, or how long they’ve been together, they are imminently, incredibly, and impressively watchable.

I don’t give a damn about the refs.

Not an iota. Not a strand. Not a leaflet. Not a smidgen. Couldn’t care less that they feel they shouldn’t be surrendering anything in this economy. Couldn’t care less that they want to keep in measures that allow people who were middle aged when Greg Oden was born in the year 1500 BC to keep reffing. Don’t give a damn about what they’ve had to sacrifice for their jobs, what with all the nice hotel rooms, six figure salaries, and the fact that they officiate NBA games for a living.

“Their kids never see their fathers!” is the cry. As if it’s some hard life they’ve been forced into. As if officiating is a calling, that they were meant to do, to help society. Are you kidding me? I’m not saying it’s not a hard job. It definitely is. So is molecular biologist. So is fireman. So is Congressman/woman… okay, maybe not. But still! I’m willing to listen to their arguments, but I’m not willing to act like they have been giving some great sacrifice. You get paid six figures. Lots of jobs that don’t pay six figures require time on the road away from family. You want to spend lots of time with your kids, get a reffing job with a small college.

Furthermore, does everyone realize that most of this is about the fact that the referees are older than dirt? I think they do a good job, again. But can you blame the league for wanting to start looking down the road at younger options? Staying ahead of problems is the biggest challenge for a sports league, because so often, you never know where they’re going to come from. Twitter’s a great example of this. Three years ago, this whole social media policy was incomprehensible. Now it’s an absolute necessity. If they’ve got a problem they can see developing, they have an obligation to address it. That’s not forcing the officials out, that’s being ahead of the problem.

What really grinds my gears irritates me is the players’ union obviously pushing PR efforts towards the refs’ union. You’ve got players left and right coming out and complaining about replacement officials, like they actually care. That’s about money. Straight up. The players’ union is already in CBA talks for 2011. They want as much leverage as they can get in a weak economy, and the refs’ union provides them an opportunity to further their own agenda. It’s hilarious to me to see this behavior of protecting the same guys that the players blast year-round. These guys constantly make comments in the post-game conferences about the officiating, are always barking. “The replacement refs are going to be terrible!” You already think the actual referees are terrible! “Yeah, but they’ll be MORE terrible!”

It’s also amusing to me that there’s this push for acting like the 95-96 replacement refs are the exact same people. The D-League and to a certain extent the WNBA have provided a training ground for the league to improve its referees. These guys are used to the NBA speed. They’re not college refs blown away by the increased speed and athleticism. Will there be calls they as players or we as fans don’t agree with? Absolutely. Guess what? Same deal with the current refs. Unless you haven’t noticed every time you’ve jumped out of your chair and threatened to do something horrible involving a plastic bag and a coke can to the old bald guy on your screen, or haven’t seen the constant, non-stop jabbering by players at the officials.

The union has blown their leverage. At this point the league’s already compromised on too much. Personally, I think they should have held out more on bringing down salaries to NBA front office administrative levels. Yeah, that’s right. You know why? Officials should do their job reliably, quietly, and consistently. They’re equipment with shoes.

Sorry if I’m not getting all bent out of shape about a group that consistently makes players, coaches, and fans insane not getting everything they want.