Said Miller: “It was well within my range. I felt comfortable, and I just didn’t make it.”
Why didn’t Derrick just take it all the way himself? Said Rose: “Part of me being the point guard was to pass that ball. That’s why I did it.”
Added Vinny Del Negro: “Brad got a good look. They double teamed Derrick. Derrick swung and he made the right basketball play. The percentages will go in your favor if you make the right play.”
Unless they don’t. Although passing to an open teammate really is the right play. You can’t fault Rose for doing his job.
via Circus Trip Game 6: Bucks 99, Bulls 97 » By The Horns.
So Just how likely was Brad Miller to make that shot?
Let’s go to the Data!
Last season, Brad Miller took 76 shots from 16-23 feet. He hit 33 for a 43% clip, down from 47% the previous two years. This year, he’s taken 27 attempts, making 10, for 37%. Last year, 97% of his shots were assisted from that range, this year, 90%.
So going into this game, you have to think you have around a 37% chance of that shot going in.
I could go into what Rose’s numbers at the rim are, but I’m willing to let that slide given the context. The double was on Rose, they were aiming to stop him at all costs. Even though shooting at the rim is simply always going to be a higher percentage attempt than an 18 foot jumper, it’s hard to argue for the defended shot over the open one.
Here’s a quick list of players shooting better from that range. Joakim Noah (!) at 56%, Jannero Pargo at 41% (off of 8.9 attempts per 40), Derrick Rose at 40% (with only 29.7% assisted so he could have pulled up for the jumper), and Luol Deng (40% on 8.7 attempts per 40).
Meanwhile, you had Lindsey Hunter in, who has only attempted one shot from inside the three point line this year, which he missed. Of course, he was probably waiting for the three ball. Which, you know, he has failed to hit all year in four attempts.
I’ve been really kind to VDN this year, but he has GOT to get over the Brad Miller clutch situation thing. It was a good look. He’s a good player. The odds were not horrendous that he would make it. But there are better options, better positions to put yourself in.
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But the stats exclude the fact that Brad Miller hit a HUGE clutch shot…that was not a clutch shot because it was .1 seconds too late…ok nevermind.
To be fair to Rose, he did pass it to the guy who was open. Unfortunately, Noah’s been great, and they don’t run PNR plays enough to get either of them open.
“Even though shooting at the rim is simply always going to be a higher percentage attempt than an 18 foot jumper, it’s hard to argue for the defended shot over the open one.”
Except that the Bulls blew 11 layups last night (which has been a recurring trend this season) and Andy Bogut had swatted two shots at the rim in the previous minute (a dunk attempt by Deng and a layup attempt by Rose). Trust me, Rose wasn’t going to get a higher percentage opportunity at the rim, not against collapsing, double-teaming, end-of-game defense. “Simply always” is simply wrong in this case. (Now a bit earlier, Rose apparently passed up a potential layup to kick it out to Salmons for a missed three. That was a mistake.)
“Here’s a quick list of players shooting better from that range. Joakim Noah (!) at 56%, Jannero Pargo at 41% (off of 8.9 attempts per 40), Derrick Rose at 40% (with only 29.7% assisted so he could have pulled up for the jumper), and Luol Deng (40% on 8.7 attempts per 40).”
First, I don’t care what the numbers say, you don’t want Noah taking that shot. Not over Miller. Trust me on that. As for Pargo, first off, how is Rose going to run a pick and roll with Jannero Pargo? You can’t cut-and-paste Pargo for Miller in that situation. Second, Pargo was 0-for-3 and played only 11 minutes despite the fact that the Bulls are thinner than herbal tea in the backcourt with Hinrich out. Why? He’s injured but playing. Having an ice-cold, injured player taking clutch shots really isn’t the best option.
Re: Rose on the pullup. He was 4-for-11 on jumpers last night (36 percent). That percentage is eerily similar to the season number you quoted for Miller, no? And with the way the defense was playing him, I don’t think a contested pullup jumper against end-of-game defense is really and truly a higher percentage shot than a wide open jumper.
I suppose it’s worth asking why VDN didn’t call the pick and roll with Rose and Deng, except that Deng doesn’t set good picks. If he could, maybe we have a conversation about it.
Look, it’s fun to talk about players peforming a certain way on paper in theoretical situations, but the reality is none of the “better options” you mentioned really fit the situation.
The Bulls don’t have a clutch one-on-one player who can impose his will during crunch time. Maybe Rose can be that guy someday. Maybe the Bulls should have forced him to shoot under any and all circumstances as a learning experience. But VDN wrote up a play that got Miller an open shot he’s hit many times over the years. The Bulls do not have any better personnel for a pick and roll than Rose and Miller. They don’t. I’m not saying there aren’t “better options, better positions to put yourself in,” but I didn’t see any in this post.
Perhpas you could suggest an alternate play that would, say, get Luol Deng or John Salmons open?
Matt, the objective here was less to say that Rose should have just bullied his way, and more that Miller, despite what you’re saying, was not a better option. You say “Miller is a better option, trust me.” But the numbers, the actual numbers, say differently. As far as a pick and roll with Pargo, I’m not suggesting that, but draw it up to force Pargo’s defender. Set up a drive and kick, pretty much any other option. And maybe they wouldn’t have worked out. But it certainly seems that that exact play is run a lot in late game situations for the Bulls and it’s not really working out.
I appreciate what you’re saying about players being cold. Except that if it was Ben Gordon being 4 of 11, you’d still want him to take that shot. Because it’s Ben Gordon, right? Except the Bulls don’t have a Ben Gordon. But if they’re going to have anyone that CAN fill that role, they’re going to need the opportunity to. Is Brad Miller going to be that guy?
Personally, I would have taken a bad pick with Deng or a pick and roll or even executing shorter in the clock and telling Miller to immediately swing to Deng.
I get what you’re saying, and I’m not just trying the “well it didn’t go in so it was a bad play” but I think when you really start to examine the CURRENT situation of the Bulls shooters, putting Miller as your trigger man was a flawed idea.
One more note.
“Except that the Bulls blew 11 layups last night (which has been a recurring trend this season) and Andy Bogut had swatted two shots at the rim in the previous minute (a dunk attempt by Deng and a layup attempt by Rose). Trust me, Rose wasn’t going to get a higher percentage opportunity at the rim, not against collapsing, double-teaming, end-of-game defense. “Simply always” is simply wrong in this case. (Now a bit earlier, Rose apparently passed up a potential layup to kick it out to Salmons for a missed three. That was a mistake.)”
At the rim is going to be a higher percentage attempt than Miller’s open 17 footer because of the foul opportunity. It’s possible he’ll get no-called AND miss the shot. But that gives you as good of a percentage opportunity as the 17 footer, with Rose. You’ll have put yourselves in the best possible position. I can see how you can say that a wide open jump shot is a good opportunity, but even if you get away from league-wide and general concepts of efficiency, and you look at how the Bulls shoot, it’s a bad decision.
“Matt, the objective here was less to say that Rose should have just bullied his way, and more that Miller, despite what you’re saying, was not a better option.”
So you really think that Rose should have forced a shot into a double team…which is something that has NOT been working for him this season? Versus passing to an open teammate? I just want to confirm that’s what you’re saying.
“You say ‘Miller is a better option, trust me.’ But the numbers, the actual numbers, say differently.”
First, be careful using a summary quote, because it can turn into a misquote. The “trust me” phrase was used in reference to the fact that Rose diving headfirst into a double team and Noah attempting a clutch jumper from 18 feet. What I said Miller was a better option than the players you named given the play that was called.
And please don’t fall into that “the numbers say differently” trap. Numbers are great, but they say nothing — I repeat, nothing — about the situations in which they are achieved. I’m sure you do your due diligence, but I’ve watched every Bulls game for years. I’ve watched and rewatched every game this season. Your numbers say that Joakim Noah was a better option than Miller on a pick and roll play that would have required Jo to shoot from 18-ish feet. Well, your numbers are wrong about that, and it points to the dangers of quoting stats.
Just because Noah has added an occasional jumper to his game doesn’t mean he was the choice in that situation. Noah has never to my knowledge shot a jumper off the pick and roll this season. His jumpers have come in the same way. With his man laying waaaaaay off him, him taking his time to slowly work into a shooting motion, and then letting it go. He isn’t a quick release jump shooter. He isn’t experienced in shooting off pick and rolls. Maybe he does it in practice, I don’t know. But he doesn’t do it in games. So while his stats from that distance my look sterling, the reality is Noah has no proven ability running the play in question. So asserting that Noah was a better choice because his season stats from that range are better is shortsighted because you’re asking him to do something that is not natural for him…whereas it is natural for Miller.
“As far as a pick and roll with Pargo, I’m not suggesting that, but draw it up to force Pargo’s defender. Set up a drive and kick, pretty much any other option. And maybe they wouldn’t have worked out. But it certainly seems that that exact play is run a lot in late game situations for the Bulls and it’s not really working out.”
Eh…how many end-of-game situations have you seen the Bulls in lately where they ran that play? Specific instances?
“I appreciate what you’re saying about players being cold. Except that if it was Ben Gordon being 4 of 11, you’d still want him to take that shot. Because it’s Ben Gordon, right? Except the Bulls don’t have a Ben Gordon. But if they’re going to have anyone that CAN fill that role, they’re going to need the opportunity to. Is Brad Miller going to be that guy?”
I never suggested that. What I said was Miller was the best option for a pick and roll with Rose, which was the play that got called. And it seems like a simpler and easier call than, “We need to create the Bulls’ next Ben Gordon.”
“Personally, I would have taken a bad pick with Deng or a pick and roll or even executing shorter in the clock and telling Miller to immediately swing to Deng.”
Was Deng even open? If he wasn’t, and I don’t believe he was, then you’re forcing him to create a shot without much time on the clock. That is not playing to Luol’s strengths.
“At the rim is going to be a higher percentage attempt than Miller’s open 17 footer because of the foul opportunity.”
Then you are trusting Rose’s ability to draw a foul (which has been notoriously bad, if only because the refs aren’t giving him that respect yet) and the officials’ willingness to decide a game on a foul with almost no time on the clock. And you know how refs hate to do that.
“It’s possible he’ll get no-called AND miss the shot. But that gives you as good of a percentage opportunity as the 17 footer, with Rose.”
Those are only two possibilities. He might not even get a shot off if he drives into a double team. Rose has faced an awful lot of double downs on his drives this season, and he’s been turtle-shelling. I understand what you’re saying in theory, but in practice that situation has not been working. Double teams and collapsing defenses have been daunting Rose this season because the Bulls can’t spread the floor the way they could with Gordon and a healthy Hinrich and a hot-shooting Salmons. The spacing is junk. And D-Rose hasn’t figured out how to beat the defensive swarm yet. I’m all for him learning. But I’m not sure this was the best time for an object lesson.
“You’ll have put yourselves in the best possible position. I can see how you can say that a wide open jump shot is a good opportunity, but even if you get away from league-wide and general concepts of efficiency, and you look at how the Bulls shoot, it’s a bad decision.”
So it’s more efficient to take a contested/forced shot against a double team than a wide open shot? That’s the argument?
[...] Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm thinks Joakim Noah should have taken that last-second jumper. More or less. [...]
I think it comes down to you believing that a wide-open jumper from someone who has shown the ability to hit that shot was a better decision than a player who has struggled to create at the rim forcing a shot or a contested jumper from somewhere else, or for Joakim to try a shot you don’t feel having watched the team that he can hit. And I get that.
I guess I get to the point where if Glen Davis can knock down a 15 footer, Joakim Noah’s probably earned a crack too. Honestly my preferred option would have been to give it to Deng and let him create. Even a forced shot I feel has a high probability of either creating a make, a foul, or allowing time for a Noah tip-in.
Again, I think the main thing I want to note here is that this sets an individual precedent that can be used IN CONJUNCTION with the shooting location stats to suggest that maybe Brad Miller from 17 feet is no longer the option the Bulls think it still is.
I don’t think it was a horrid playcall by VDN. I’m saying the Bulls need to learn something else, because individual plays and the data both suggest that Miller’s not really that great of an option any more.