3. Chicago Bulls 85 – Oklahoma City Thunder 98

Date: 1/4/10

CHI at-rim: (24 – 53), 45.3 percent, 29 missed

The Bulls missed more shots at the rim than the normal team attempts on any given night. Just stunning. Granted, when you take a league-high 53 shots at the basket, you’re gonna miss your fair share. The Bulls were assisted on only 9 of their 24 field goals there so most of them likely came off of penetration and offensive rebounds. The Thunder only blocked 9 of the 29 misses which leaves 20 that were straight up errant. As I noted earlier this year when I profiled the Thunder, they allow a ton of shots at the basket but teams find little success in actually converting the chip-ins. This game serves as a microcosm of the Thunder squad.

via Hoopdata – The Missed Bucket List: The 5 Worst Performances At the Rim.

HoopData runs down the worst at-rim performances of the season. And the Bulls are popular attendees.

Can you really be successful if you don’t convert at the rim? Should the Bulls consider that before they go trading for a wing?

You can’t really look at Noah and believe he’s going to evolve into someone you can give the ball to and expect him to score consistently. That’s no knock on Noah. He’s doing everything else so well this season, if he had low-post back-to-basket moves he’d be a top flight player in this league. But Brad Miller’s the other heavy-rotation big and he loathes the paint and loves the top of the key, while Taj Gibson’s too measley to make an impact (and he’s inefficient).

The Bulls need a substantial makeover, and it’s going to take more than just one big free agent to fix it if they want to contend for a title… whenever the Lakers get done pwning everyone.

While digesting all of these numbers, another question popped into my head. Sure, Rondo’s improved numbers were nice inside 15 feet, but how did they stack up overall against other point guards in the league? The answer was a little less surprising this time. Below are Rondo’s rankings amongst PG’s at the various ranges as well as the league averages for point guard’s at that distance.

AT RIM (PG LEAGUE AVERAGE 56.4%)

Rondo: 4th (66.3%)

LESS THAN 10 FEET (PG LEAGUE AVERAGE 43.3%)

Rondo: 7th (57.6%)

10-15 FEET (PG LEAGUE AVERAGE 41.3%)

Rondo: 5th (55.2%)

Once again, impressive numbers for Rondo in all of those ranges. In fact, Rondo finished ahead of great scorers such as Chris Paul, Deron Williams and Mo Williams in ALL of these categories. Expect that? Neither did I.

via Rajon Rondo: Elite Finisher? » Boston Celtics Basketball – Celtics news, rumors and analysis – CelticsHub.com.

That’s pretty sick. For a 24 year old? That’s really pretty sick.

One of two things will happen when the Big 3 break up. Rondo will flourish like never before, taking on more responsibility as an established veteran of young players, and become some sort of perfect nexus between the slashing point guards, the vision-tested creationists, and his own special defensive-hybrid-beast model.  Or he’ll struggle when not surrounded by a knockout starring cast, frustrate fans with his play, become a headache to deal with, and end up starting over somewhere else. And everyone feels differently from one person to the next.

The other option is that this summer he becomes the Tony Parker of the Spurs, steals the spotlight from KG/Pierce/Allen and wins the championship largely on account of his own play. Hey, when Parker did it he didn’t have a jumper then either.

I’ll never forget what I saw inside. Instead of crown molding, there were empty Hennessy bottles glued to his wall. There was dog crap everywhere, and where there wasn’t, there was either someone sleeping or evidence that someone had just slept there — a sleeping bag and pillow. There were guys all over the place. On the landing of the stairs. On the couch. Free-style rapping in the corner. (I can’t help but wonder if one of his stairwell dwellers, transplanted to Los Angeles, was the “box” Artest tripped over last month.) I engaged one for a few minutes as Ron went to change clothes. I asked if all the guys were from the “QB,” Queensbridge, the public housing development in New York where Artest grew up. The reply still sticks with me.

“Yeah,” he said. “We all are. We all made a deal when we were young. If one of us made it out, we’d take the rest with us. Ron made it out.”

via Hennessy, Dog Crap, And A Touching Glimpse Into The Head And Home Of Ron Artest – The Dark Side Of The Locker Room – Deadspin.

/mouth agape

Creating turnovers on the defensive end certainly is a good thing.  After all, it is one of the Four Factors.  Still, the ability of a defense to generate steals in particular is not always assumed to be beneficial.  Perhaps it is better to play more safe and solid D.  I’ve decided to look at the numbers and see what conclusions we can draw.

Using play-by-play data, I calculated the Steal Rate (the percentage of opponents’ possessions that ended in a steal by the team in question) for each lineup that appeared in at least 400 possessions last season.  I then compared that lineup’s Steal Rate to its Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) and plotted the results in the chart below.  If steals are important, a higher steal rate should lead to a lower Defensive Rating, and therefore a negative slope:

So far, it appears as though steals are important.  Despite a low r-squared, these results certainly are meaningful and are very much statistically significant.  We can’t say that the number of steals entirely explains how well a defense will do (as evidenced by the low r-squared), but we can say that there is a correlation between high steal rates and low Defensive Ratings.

But we should pause for a second.  This graph can be very misleading.  Perhaps there are some confounding variables (hidden factors) that make the results appear to be this way when they really shouldn’t be.  In other words, maybe good defensive teams just have more athletic players in general.  This may cause them to get more steals, but it doesn’t mean steals are the reason they’re better.  If a bad team were to go for more steals, they’d still be a bad team and have a poor Defensive Rating.

However, there is another approach that we can take.  For each lineup, I’ve calculated the projected Defensive Rating based on the individual Defensive Ratings of each player in the lineup.  I then calculated the difference between the lineup’s projected Defensive Rating and actual Defensive Rating.   This difference was regressed against the lineup’s Steal Rate.

What is the point of this?  This method attempts to zoom in on just steals.  By taking a lineup’s projected Defensive Rating into account, we’re trying to adjust for other confounding variables.  This way, if there is a negative correlation between the difference and steals, it is further evidence that steals are important.   A negative slope in the graph below indicates that steals are important:

Again we see more evidence suggesting that going for steals is generally beneficial.  The r-squared is low but the results are statistically significant.

Of course, these graphs don’t specify what types of steals are good.  Risky attempts may very well hurt the defense.

In conclusion, based on the evidence I’ve presented today, I would suggest that lineups (and, theoretically, players) that record more steals are often better on defense.  To some, this may be obvious, but to others it may not be.  We can never know for sure how important steals really are, but the stats think they matter.

The tape ended and Tyrone Hill stood and went to the dry erase board, which listed the Dallas lineup and the players the Hawks would use to defend each guy. He went player by player, mentioning things like trying to make Jason Kidd a jump shooter or which way Shawn Marion likes to turn with the ball, then spent a few minutes on Mavs rookie Rodrigue Beaubois, who’d been starting for Dallas, though most of the Hawks had never seen him play. The most time was devoted to Dirk Nowitzki, and the coaches peppered Josh Smith with tips and reminders on how best to defend the former MVP.

A few minutes past noon, Woodson stood and faced the team to end the meeting. “Guys, I’ve been in this League as a coach and a player for 28 years. I won one title with Detroit a few years ago, but I’d like to win some more, and I know all of you guys would, too. Look, your clock is ticking. My clock is ticking. We’re not going to be around this League forever. This team is possibly good enough to win a title. You guys who weren’t here before this year, I’ve never been able to say that before this season. But you guys could do something really special. You just have to trust each other and do what you’re supposed to do out there on the floor. The shit works, you just have to execute and trust.”

via SLAM ONLINE | » Links: Embedded With The Atlanta Hawks.

Go read that now. Do not wait. Do not read the rest of this post. You can come back to this post. Go read it. Don’t worry, HP will still be here, pithy as always.

Seriously, Lang is incredible. I’m not just sucking up here (you can’t suck up to someone who doesn’t know you). This is phenomenal.

I want to believe this season is special for the Hawks. A franchise rife with disappointment in a hard luck city. A coach constantly questioned for his abilities, drifting along in an uncertain ownership situation. A franchise that drafted forward after forward, watching its team come into its own. Wouldn’t it make a great story?

And if Lang gets to write it, all the better.

Other self: Hold on, Clark. There is good reason to believe that this team might have been and might still be good this season. Maybe they haven’t won a championship, but they have been good for 48-54 wins the last three seasons. And last year they would have been 4 or 5 games better with a healthy team. Missing Williams cost them at least 3 games I can remember off the top of my head. This team has been one small trade or a couple of games away from being a top 4 seed. Remember that this same team made it to the Western Conference Finals only three years ago.

Myself: Maybe making it to the Western Conference Finals was the worst thing that could happen to this team. It changed expectations for them before they were ready for it. They were probably only the 4th or 5th best team in the conference that year, but got lucky when favorable matchups came their way in the form of the Warriors. But more importantly, that wasn’t the same team as now. Derek Fisher was on that team and he was a true team leader. He singlehandedly changed the environment and the expectations of that team from day one. Like him or hate him, the Jazz haven’t had a good leader on the team since Fisher left. He’s a winner. Period. This team is very different from that team 3 years ago. But this team has had plenty of chances to show they are a competitor in the Western Conference and they haven’t done it. They have the same flaws they have always had. Do I believe that they will do well this season?

via AN ARGUMENT WITH MYSELF – SLC Dunk.

This is the best analysis of the Jazz I’ve ever read. It’s like putting the entire Jazz fan nation on a psycho-analyst’s couch. The admission that that Western Conference Finals run was meaningless is a crucial starting point. Believing you’re further along than you are leads to where the Jazz are now, concluding they don’t need to assertively pursue improvement, nor even consider trading Carlos Boozer.

Carlos. Boozer.

However, I was talking to Ziller the other day and he brought this up. In the middle of the worst economy in 20 years, the Jazz are consistently selling out the arena, will likely end up below the luxury tax, and bring in enough playoff revenue to offset costs.

They’re not contending for a championship, but in all honestly, you have to have a special combination of players to even get in the race. The Jazz have a future, they just don’t have a present.

Over the remaining schedule, let’s predict, somewhat arbitrarily, that the Grizzlies win:

* 100% of their home games against sub .500 teams

* 50% of their home games against teams equal or greater than .500

* 50% of their road games against sub .500 teams

* 25% of their road games against teams equal or greater than .500

That’s a strong performance, but not out of the question if they stay healthy. Here’s what the breakdown of the Grizzlies remaining schedule looks like (45 games):

via David’s Memphis Grizzlies Blog: Grizzlies Playoffs Chances?.

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 28 of 45 games against plus-.500 teams. After struggling with Utah, Charlotte, and the Clippers, it’s hard to imagine this team being able to consistently pull off upsets against better teams. Friday, for example they kick off a back to back with Minnesota and San Antonio. They’re pretty much in must-win mode on every front end of every back to back they’ve got this season. Then next week it’s 3 games in five days with Phoenix, NOLA, and OKC. And that’s when things get tougher.

The Grizzlies will have to play well above the even-improved play they’ve been sustaining in order to make it out of January over .500.

Gonna need to break a lot more water mains.

After experiencing some discomfort during his recently-accelerated rehabilitation program, Clippers’ forward Blake Griffin was examined Tuesday afternoon by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles.

As a result of that examination, it has been determined that the healing in his left patella area has not improved to the expected required level. Griffin will undergo a surgical procedure in the near future, with a recovery prognosis of four to six months. Team personnel will be made available to the media. Further details will be made available as events develop.

via CLIPPERS: Griffin to Undergo Season Ending Surgery.

Enough, Lord! Enough! They have suffered enough! We get it! You don’t like the owner! We understand! But the point has been made! We beseech you! Have mercy, Lord! Have Mercy!

True story: as soon as I read the announcement, my had reached out against my will and began writing

EIWOB=NIFFIRG

NADROJ=SNAVE

against my will, due to the onslaught of coming unfair comparisons (in every angle). Odd.

Dang, that’s just brutal.

P.S. If you could help our Haitian bros out first, that would be great. Thanks, Lord.

However, I also wonder just how many players in the D-League have the ability to play at the NBA level and whether the increased appeal of playing in the D-League over the next decade (two decades?) will be enough to cover a nearly 100 percent jump in player populace.

But while I’m on the fence about whether high-volume expansion would hurt the D-League from a fan watchability standpoint (yes, I made that word up), if the goal here is really to develop players for the NBA, the risk seems worth it: The earlier players become acclimated to the NBA systems that they will be playing in should they be called up, the better they will perform once they reach the next level. It stands to reason that a one-to-one affiliate ratio would make the cream of the D-League crop more prepared to step in and contribute in the Association, and that’s the primary goal here.

via D-LeagueDigest.

Weinman comes through with a fantastic article, well-sourced and thorough about D-League expansion. Long story short: D-League obviously wants more teams (though their open admission about working towards that goal of one affiliate per NBA team is a shift from a few years ago), Red Claws GM is worried about dilution.

Here’s the problem with skepticism about expansion. Any expansion that’s going to come will likely end up being at least partially built in by the CBA. And once the CBA is (please God, help us) changed to allow teams to actually put players on payroll that don’t count against cap or roster space, you know what’s going to happen? All those dudes that are American that took off for Europe for the money are going to come back. That’s a ton of players. There are a lot of guys who would love to play in the NBA, but aren’t willing to go through making 12 to 20 grand for six months of work.  By building an actual farm system with moderate sized contracts, you’re going to increase your player pool. More teams means adding more water, but changing the CBA means adding more syrup.

As far as teams investing in the D-League, there will always be teams that mishandle their D-League teams. You know why? There are teams that mishandle their actual teams! Every business has things it does well and things it doesn’t do so well. But even if the CBA doesn’t require the operation of an affiliate (which it really should; you can own and operate a D-League team for a whole year for a fraction of what Jason Collins costs), the trend is heading towards outright ownership. Starting next year, three of the five Southwest Division teams own their own affiliate. And while the Lakers are currently focused on championships with this core, I’d expect the D-Fenders to get a lot more attention starting in two years.

The trend is happening. The future is coming. Whether people are ready or not.

Seriously, I decided this yesterday after looking at the SBNation NBA Power Rankings.

I think the best of the NBA D-League might be able to compete with what Mike Prada calls the “Dregs of the League.”

You’re probably asking, “But Scott, is it really a positive to think that a team made up of D-League players could compete with the worst of the worst of the NBA?”

I’d answer, “Actually, loyal reader, kind of, considering that most dismiss the D-League altogether. If a team made up completely of current D-League players could legitimately compete with even one NBA team, doesn’t that show that there is, in fact, talent in the D-League?”

via Hypothetically, the D-League is, roughly, the 28th best team in the NBA. – Ridiculous Upside.

Click through for Scott on something I helped him with yesterday that apparently he feels no need to hat tip me on, the selfish jerk.

I actually hate the Timberwolves matchup because they have Jefferson who is better than every player on the D-League team. However, I think that with the right coach (Mackinnon, maybe?), the D-League could be the first team to succesfully run a full court press against an NBA team. Trapping Flynn constantly and forcing Corey Brewer to make smart passes? That may just work.

The Nets they could probably out-offense (Scott’s team is loaded with shooters) at least for a game, maybe get the split if they played thrice. They might be able to run with Houston, actually, if the Rox are having a bad shooting night. And they could beat Detroit, at least once. Possibly double-digits.

The difference would be that almost every playoff team would outscore them by 30, and even the Warriors and Knicks would abuse them.

But still, a single win would go a long way in proving the legitimacy of the D-League.