NBA HD: A Look at At Rim Defense by Team.

Team shot location data has been the focus of my last two articles and since it’s largely uncharted territory, I thought I would continue down that path for the third part in the series.

My last piece that ran a few days ago looked at how teams shoot depending on the varying opposing defenses.  I found that generally teams attack the basket with more frequency as the quality of at rim defense worsens, but the degree in which they exploit that weakness was surprisingly small.  Teams averaged 25.7 shots at the rim against good at rim defenses which is one shot fewer than their per game rate against poor defenses.  Put another way, it’s also fair to suggest that good post defenses curtail shots at the basket. Moving further away from the basket, I did not see increased shot selection from 16-23 feet or from beyond the 3-point line.

Today, I’d like to turn the tables and tighten my focus to the most crucial part of the court: the basket.  How does each at rim defense perform against varying at rim offenses?   I broke down the offenses in the same manner that I did in the previous two pieces: top 10 teams classified as “Good”, bottom 10 “poor” and middle 10 “average.”  For the sake of consistency, I have maintained the color formatting from the last post.  So, if a team has a red color fill, that means they have allowed a low field goal percentage in that area which is the objective of any defense.  Red does not mean “bad”; instead, it merely indicates poor field goal percentage.   Let’s take a look.

Defenses can’t keep good at rim offenses from converting at a high percentage (.637) but interestingly, good at rim offenses shoot the fewest number of shots of the three groups (24.7 per game).  That good at rim teams do not attack the basket more often runs counter to the conventional wisdom.  Wait, I don’t think I have worded correctly.  Let me try again: good at rim teams do not attempt more foul-free shots at the basket.  That’s a key distinction.

At rim defenses, more than any other zone, are prone to deflated shot frequency due to fouls.   The biggest shot drop off comes from the Pistons defense that allows 7.4 more shots at the basket when facing a poor offense compared to a good one.   That’s a 27.5 percent decrease.  As you would expect, the Pistons foul a lot as their opponent Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA) ranks sixth highest in the NBA.   So it’s probably more accurate to suggest that good at rim squads do attack the basket frequently but the whistle hides a good portion of those attempts.

The Pacers feast on poor at rim offenses more than any other good defense, with an 80 point swing from good to bad offenses while still maintaining a below-average opponent field goal percentage in all three.  Like the Pistons, this could be a result of their high fouling rate, as they rank as the second most foul prone team according to FTR.   Good offenses get to the line whereas poor ones fail to draw the contact that would alleviate their missed shot count.

Actually, all of the top defenses rate well across the board here– except for the Lakers.

The Lakers plummet 14 spots in the ranks  going from poor offenses to good offenses as their field goal percentage skyrockets from .549 to .656.  It could prove fatal in the playoffs once you consider that  most playoff teams excel at the basket.  Although, the Lakers did stop the Spurs recently last Monday, holding Tim Duncan and the rest of the Spurs to just 16-34 shooting at the basket, which serves as a sharp contrast to their 18-24 FG showing on January 12th.    This will be something to watch as the season goes on.

In the sheer absurdity department, good at rim offenses have scored 70.6 percent on the Kings this season.  Sacramento can place a lot of the blame on San Antonio and Atlanta.  In their three contests, the Spurs have shot 69 for 88 at the basket, which is a staggering 78.4 percent success rate.   Atlanta has done even better: making 42 of 52 (80.8%).

As always, you can find exclusive shot location sortable breakdowns at Hoopdata.com.

Oster-Tags: analysis, NBA HD, numbersandfigures, stats, Tom Haberstroh