Team shot location data has been the focus of my last two articles and since it’s largely uncharted territory, I thought I would continue down that path for the third part in the series.

My last piece that ran a few days ago looked at how teams shoot depending on the varying opposing defenses.  I found that generally teams attack the basket with more frequency as the quality of at rim defense worsens, but the degree in which they exploit that weakness was surprisingly small.  Teams averaged 25.7 shots at the rim against good at rim defenses which is one shot fewer than their per game rate against poor defenses.  Put another way, it’s also fair to suggest that good post defenses curtail shots at the basket. Moving further away from the basket, I did not see increased shot selection from 16-23 feet or from beyond the 3-point line.

Today, I’d like to turn the tables and tighten my focus to the most crucial part of the court: the basket.  How does each at rim defense perform against varying at rim offenses?   I broke down the offenses in the same manner that I did in the previous two pieces: top 10 teams classified as “Good”, bottom 10 “poor” and middle 10 “average.”  For the sake of consistency, I have maintained the color formatting from the last post.  So, if a team has a red color fill, that means they have allowed a low field goal percentage in that area which is the objective of any defense.  Red does not mean “bad”; instead, it merely indicates poor field goal percentage.   Let’s take a look.

Defenses can’t keep good at rim offenses from converting at a high percentage (.637) but interestingly, good at rim offenses shoot the fewest number of shots of the three groups (24.7 per game).  That good at rim teams do not attack the basket more often runs counter to the conventional wisdom.  Wait, I don’t think I have worded correctly.  Let me try again: good at rim teams do not attempt more foul-free shots at the basket.  That’s a key distinction.

At rim defenses, more than any other zone, are prone to deflated shot frequency due to fouls.   The biggest shot drop off comes from the Pistons defense that allows 7.4 more shots at the basket when facing a poor offense compared to a good one.   That’s a 27.5 percent decrease.  As you would expect, the Pistons foul a lot as their opponent Free Throw Rate (FTA/FGA) ranks sixth highest in the NBA.   So it’s probably more accurate to suggest that good at rim squads do attack the basket frequently but the whistle hides a good portion of those attempts.

The Pacers feast on poor at rim offenses more than any other good defense, with an 80 point swing from good to bad offenses while still maintaining a below-average opponent field goal percentage in all three.  Like the Pistons, this could be a result of their high fouling rate, as they rank as the second most foul prone team according to FTR.   Good offenses get to the line whereas poor ones fail to draw the contact that would alleviate their missed shot count.

Actually, all of the top defenses rate well across the board here– except for the Lakers.

The Lakers plummet 14 spots in the ranks  going from poor offenses to good offenses as their field goal percentage skyrockets from .549 to .656.  It could prove fatal in the playoffs once you consider that  most playoff teams excel at the basket.  Although, the Lakers did stop the Spurs recently last Monday, holding Tim Duncan and the rest of the Spurs to just 16-34 shooting at the basket, which serves as a sharp contrast to their 18-24 FG showing on January 12th.    This will be something to watch as the season goes on.

In the sheer absurdity department, good at rim offenses have scored 70.6 percent on the Kings this season.  Sacramento can place a lot of the blame on San Antonio and Atlanta.  In their three contests, the Spurs have shot 69 for 88 at the basket, which is a staggering 78.4 percent success rate.   Atlanta has done even better: making 42 of 52 (80.8%).

As always, you can find exclusive shot location sortable breakdowns at Hoopdata.com.

Asked to give a final message to Wizards fans, Jamison said, “I love them more than they love me.”

via Twitter / Michael Lee: Asked to give a final mess ….

Got a funny feeling Joe Johnson’s going to have the same sentiment in five months.

(DEEP BREATH FOR AIR)

Okay.

Gah, where to start. Uh…

(SLAMS COFFEE)

(SLAMS REDBULL)

Okay.

Uh…CLEVELAND!

TRADE BREAKDOWNS AFTER THE JUMP.

(more…)

Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm, NBA FanHouse and ProBasketballTalk stops by to talk about his time in Dallas for All-Star Weekend, debate the Jazz as contenders, breakdown the Mavs trade and answer the dreaded Ten Questions.

via Talking About Practice: Episode 6.

It’s meta.

But the selection of Hasheem Thabeet was a disaster that could haunt the franchise for years, the bench can't be counted on, and no team should be able to make a playoff run with just four guys who can play.

The Grizzlies need more guys. The question is whether they'll go out and get them by Thursday, whether owner Mike Heisley will allow general manager Chris Wallace the flexibility to make a move.

So far, it doesn't look good. Heisley has indicated he doesn't want the team to take on a player whose contract extends past this year. That essentially dooms the enterprise. It's also wildly short-sighted for a franchise that is still building for the future. Why spend valuable assets to get a player who won't help long term?

via Geoff Calkins: A big, fat trade the cure for what ails the Grizzlies » The Commercial Appeal.

There’s a little debate going on about whether it would be better for the Grizzlies to make or miss the playoffs. The argument goes that getting swept out of the playoffs would do no one any good, that this team has already justified Heisley’s maneuvers, and that the draft pick is more important, even if it’s just a few slots.

The problem is that it didn’t have to be like this. Even while the Grizzlies were killing it, I was trying to live in the moment and enjoy it because I was pretty sure there was no way they could keep it up. Making the eighth seed would be awesome, but was far from a sure thing. And now that’s turning out to be true.

But it didn’t have to be like this. If they’d not wasted the second overall pick on the worst player in the first round, a player so bad that Kahn’s decision to draft a guy who REFUSES TO PLAY FOR HIS TEAM looks smarter? They’d be above Portland. They were right on Randolph. Gasol got better. Mayo got better. But they didn’t do the one thing they obviously needed to do. Take the best player, who happened to be a point guard, and make it a competition for point.

I’m not even talking Evans, though to me it was the most obvious choice in the world. The all-world, super-big point guard who played for the local college. Forget that. Take Rubio. Take Curry, for God’s sake! Anyone at point, and anyone but Thabeet.

But instead, you have two massive problems out of one decision. Mike Conley isn’t a starting point guard. And I loathe using this little device, but I can’t help myself here: Period. That’s just it. He’s not. Everyone looks at the blown layups and poor passing, but those aren’t even what bothers me. He can’t dribble!

My favorite (read: most loathesome) Conley-ism is how he “probes” the defense. Usually a point probes by driving straight forward, then backing out. If the defender reaches, he turns his back to him and backs out of it, keeping his vision high for a cutter. If a secondary defender doubles, he immediately splits to where the defender is giving up position. Any guard does this. Not just Chris Paul or Deron Williams. We’re talking Chris Duhon or Lou Williams.

But Conley? He dribbles a foot in, then immediately panics, dribbles low, increasing the likelihood of it getting stolen, and then just sits there. No movement. Doesn’t back it out. He can’t maintain his dribble against any pressure on something simple.

Meanwhile, the bench is horrific, and so Thabeet gets time. But that’s a double problem. You need to get Thabeet minutes, but you also need quality bench minutes. He’s their really ONLY true big bench guy, and he’s a nightmare. It’s a no-win.

I’m with Calkins that a significant trade would capitalize on what the Grizzlies have accomplished. If you buy into the three-year plan, then you’re buying into fool’s gold. It looks shiny but when you get it home you’re disappointed.

There’s also this issue, which seems to get forgotten a lot during deadline talk. Anderson Varejao is the second-best player on the Cavaliers. It’s true. Say it aloud. It’ll help it sink in. As crazy as it sounds, the guy with the crazy hair who looks like he could get knocked over by a stiff breeze, has no game outside of 10 feet to speak of, and doesn’t dunk on people has become an absolutely vital piece for the Cavs.

How would Andy be able to play next to Amare? They would both need too many minutes to never play with each other. Almost all of Varejao’s offensive game is predicated on him setting the screen up high and/or cutting around the hoop and looking for easy baskets. When Amare’s in the game, it would be foolish not to use him in the high pick-and-roll offensively and try to set him up with as many dunk opportunities as possible. Andy can’t stretch the floor in those situations. Will there be enough space for Andy to be effective in the same lineup as Amare and LeBron? They might be able to figure it out. Or they might not be able to be, and the Cavs end up losing all of their momentum.

via The Four Chronicles: The Return of The Amare Rumors « Cavs: The Blog.

Paroxi-Wife largely ignored the NBA for the first year of our marriage. Then, sometime in her second season, she looked up, saw Varejao throw himself to the floor needlessly (again), and asked “WHAT is that?!”

And so I had to explain Anderson Varejao to my wife. Yes, that is his hair, not a ceremonial headdress. No, he’s not hurt. Yes, he just falls over. No, he cannot shoot. Yes, he’s a pretty good rebounder. No, he has no touch. Yes, he’s a professional basketball player. No, he’s not really a basketball player.

And from there, as she evolved into a Cavs fan, she formed a nickname for him and a theory. Her name for him is Flopsy, and her theory is thus:

“Flopsy is paid to do three good things a game. That’s it. Three. Anything else he does is gravy. As long as he does three positive basketball things per game, he has earned his salary.”

I was stunned. That’s pretty much the most accurate description of Anderson Varejao’s game and contract situation I’ve ever heard, to this day. When he received his extension to boost him to six million, she posited that he now has to do six good things a game. Usually he fails. But that’s the current level to justify the contract.

The point I’m trying to make here is that if Anderson Varejao is your second best player? You have problems. I don’t care what your record is. I don’t care that you beat the Lakers. I don’t care that you have the best basketball player on planet Earth (and probably any other, assuming, they’ve managed to pick up on the concept, and integrate it). If Anderson Varejao is your second best player, you need to do something in order to make it to where Anderson Varejao is not your second best player.

There’s a lot of talk about Amar’e going to Cleveland and his defensive problems, but I’ve said for a long time that I think A. his problems are cover-able in a good defensive system with a good defensive coach and B. he’s still coachable. We’re not looking at a complicated defensive scheme or a straight-man system, even. The Cavs are brilliant because they know how to help effectively. If you give Amar’e backup, he’s going to be fine. I still think Jamison is the better option, because he would fit in seamlessly, but after looking at the numbers, there’s no way to think that Stoudemire wouldn’t be better in the pick and pop, which is where you really need him.

Besides, at least he’s not Flopsy.

Click here for the Eastern Conference.

We’re at the halfwaypoint, and some things we know, and some things we think we know. We think we know how good the Cavs, Lakers, and Nuggets are. We know how bad the Nets are. We know that the Western playoff race will likely come down to the end. We know the Hawks have the Celtics number, and the Magic have the Hawks number, and everyone has Golden State’s number. What we don’t know is just how good the playoff teams are, and if their record is befitting their performance. So I decided to take a look.

(more…)

As always, this week’s rankings are brought to you by Scott of Ridiculous Upside, the finest vacuum cleaner salesman in all of Wabash County.

Well, we haven’t done this for awhile, so the whole crew got together last night and sorted everything out, solidifying the perfect call-up rankings as compiled by the top D-League bloggers on the internet. we all just plugged our rankings into a spreadsheet.

Hope you like them!

Also, the most interesting thing about these rankings is that we’re all further apart than we’ve been in the previous installments, but the top five remained in the same order.  I can’t really figure out why, and I’m not sure I like our varying opinions, but I’ll guarantee you one of us is right!

1. Mike Harris, Rio Grande Valley Vipers (26.5 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 58% FG) – Honestly, I’m not sure what else he has to do to warrant a call-up.  His teams winning, he’s consistent, he has an NBA resume.  If it’s because NBA teams don’t give him a chance because he’s positionless, that’s dumb.  Put him on the floor and let him go.  It’ll work.

2. Carlos Powell, Albuquerque Thunderbirds (22.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.9 apg, 49% FG) – There really isn’t much more you could want out of a 6’7″ forward, actually.  I’ll let Jon L’s comments explain the rest: “Powell does many things very well: He’s top 10 in the league in scoring; is averaging just under five assists per game – as many or more as some starting point guards; Just under two steals per game, again in the company of point guards. Just five rebounds a game and not much of an outside shot, but now we’re just nitpicking.”  And if you’re looking for than five rebounds out of the small forward spot, you’re definitely nitpicking. (I didn’t update this, because it’s all this the same. He’s consistent.)

3. Reggie Williams, Sioux Falls Skyforce (25.8 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 56% FG, 38% 3pt) – Over at D-LeagueDigest, a random commenter, Billy Hoyle, pens the following after seeing Reggie Williams for the first time during Saturday’s All-Star game: “How is Reggie Williams not in the league? Dude has a sweet stroke, isn’t undersized, doesn’t appear to be slow, and is confident. I saw visions of Michael Redd during the all-star game. What don’t I know?” Regular watchers see this every game from Williams and now that more people saw it at the all-star game, I’m wondering how long it will take until NBA GM’s find out what we already know: Williams is good.

4. Morris Almond, Maine Red Claws (26.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 50% FG) – Well, yesterday he was traded from the worst team in the D-League, the Springfield Armor, to one of the best teams in the D-League.  If he can mesh with the NBA talent that Maine has assembled, as opposed to being the best player on a bad team (his role in college at Rice and the D-League), I think he’ll finally get another NBA opportunity.

5. Dwayne Jones, Austin Toros (16.8 ppg, 14.8 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 62% FG) – For Jones, I’m not sure what the next step is.  He recently told the Delaware County Daily Times (seriously)”I’ve definitely cost myself money over the past year turning down jobs (overseas), but I want to stay here. I have a young son. I don’t want to be forced to take my family certain places until I’m to the point where I can’t make it here.”  Since that all but rules out an overseas opportunity, he’ll be forced to keep dominating the D-League until NBA GM’s take notice.

6. Alexander Johnson, Sioux Falls Skyforce (23.8 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 54% FG) – I’m going to assume Johnson is the next player to get called-up from the D-League.  He’s got all of the buzzwords going for him – he’s explosive, has a great body, he’s skilled and has an NBA resume (102 NBA games in two seasons between Miami and Memphis).  Plus, in the game I watched against the Maine Red Claws, he absolutely abused them to the tune of 30 points and nine boards in 30 minutes.  He’s got an ugly but effective mid-range shot, is quick enough to put it on the floor from the pinch post, and pretty much just plays hard.  As an aside, I’m going to assume he was ranked lower by the other members of the panel simply because they’ve yet to see him play in the D-League (six games with three starts thus far).

7. Mustafa Shakur, Tulsa 66ers (19.8 ppg, 6.7 apg, 4.6 rpg, 2.2 spg, 49% FG, 37% 3pt) -  DailyThunder had a pretty good update on Shakur (via Kevin Henry), and since I’ve said about all I can about Shakur as of late, that’s what you’re getting out of the Shakur summary.

8. Rob Kurz, Fort Wayne Mad Ants (18.3 ppg, 10.7 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 52% FG, 45% 3pt, 81% FT) – Kurz gets my mid-season award for using the D-League most effecitively. Last season with Golden State, he was primarily (read: only) a pick-and-pop shooter. After that gig didn’t fly in a number of opportunities this offseason (Orlando Summer League with the 76ers/Nets combined team, Vegas Summer League with the TWolves, preseason with the Cavs), he came to the D-League and has worked on becoming more than a shooter. It’s actually really working. I’m not sure how much credit to give to his coach (Joey Meyer was also credited for developing Ramon Sessions while in the D-League), but Kurz is now able to score in the post and averaging over 10 boards per game as the lone bright spot for his struggling Mad Ants. Oh, and don’t worry – his 45% shooting from beyond the arc proves he’s still able to shoot as well.  In fact, all of those shooting percentages are pretty good, no?

9. Alonzo Gee, Austin Toros (19.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 50% FG, 39% 3pt) – From what I’m hearing, he’s been ranked here mostly due to “his one-bounce, one-arm tomahawk in the dunk contest”.  Honestly, after watching in slow motion, I don’t blame them. (Ed. Note: I was the one that ranked him so high. For what it’s worth, Gee was the only All-Star I saw who I went “That’s a guy I’d want to invest in long-term.” Athleticism and ability. Just my opinion.-MM)

10. Cartier Martin/Othyus Jeffers, Iowa Energy – Pretty amazing that they’re on the same team and would both play the same position if they were to be called-up.  I’d be very interested to find out the dynamics in the locker room – while they’re completely different players, they’re both essentially vying for the same position.

To round it out (i.e. tell you guys that were ranked individually, but not collectively), Jon L and Steve Weinman both ranked RGV’s Antonio Anderson as the ninth best player in the D-League; myself and Matt Moore each had Desmon Farmer in our 10 spot; and Jon L ranked Courtney Sims in his 10 spot.

For the next list, I’ll assume Coby Karl (who is expected to rejoin Idaho today), Rod Benson and possibly Dontell Jefferson (injured) will make the list.

Anybody we’re missing?

We’re at the halfwaypoint, and some things we know, and some things we think we know. We think we know how good the Cavs, Lakers, and Nuggets are. We know how bad the Nets are. We know that the Western playoff race will likely come down to the end. We know the Hawks have the Celtics number, and the Magic have the Hawks number, and everyone has Golden State’s number. What we don’t know is just how good the playoff teams are, and if their record is befitting their performance. So I decided to take a look.

(more…)

Remember the end of There Will Be Blood?

(Spoiler Alert)
Daniel Plainview, wonderfully played by Daniel Day-Lewis, is all alone with all of his wealth and accomplishment. His son has abandoned him because Daniel became an insufferable curmudgeon. Any potential business partners have been long disassociated with him and he is left to his own demise – eating overcooked steak in a bowling alley lane in his own house. It’s a depressing scene in the sense that he’s seemingly accomplished so much but has very little to show for it.

And of course, he awakens from a drunken stupor to antagonize his nemesis who tries to extort a business plan into his own favor. Except the nemesis finds out that Daniel Plainview has sucked his land’s oil dry in some sort of parallel milkshake stealing scheme. Shortly thereafter, Daniel beats him to death with a bowling pin before announcing, “I’m finished” as you’re left wondering if Daniel is happy with what he’s accomplished.
(Spoiler End)

********************************************************************

I was pretty adamant about certain All-Star Game perceived snubs and who the injury replacements were. Ultimately, I just didn’t care because it’s more about the spectacle these days, rather than awarding and recognizing those NBA players who truly deserve All-Star treatment after the first half of the regular season. But as certain stars dropped out and were replaced with commissioner-approved selections, I grew more and more perturbed by who was going to be playing in the All-Star Game.

I thought David Lee over Josh Smith was completely absurd and I was much happier to justify the addition of Jason Kidd to the West team due to the inclement Dallas weather. It just didn’t make sense bringing in a power forward who was all offense and no defense rather than a guy who was in the running for Defensive Player of the Year. Josh Smith was the victim of already having two teammates on the East team while the New York market wasn’t represented at all.

With Jason Kidd, it was more of a matter of safety in bringing players into Dallas, in my opinion. Guys like Marc Gasol and Tyreke Evans were at least as deserving as Kidd was and were already in Dallas. With Evans you would have had one of the best rookies of the last 20 years (in terms of production and numbers) getting a shot at hanging with the big boys much earlier than we expected. With Gasol 2.0, we see a beast of a man who throws the label of “Soft Euro” back in the face of the coddled US-born centers.

One question that kept coming up with the fans I was talking to was, “why isn’t Monta Ellis being selected as an injury replacement for the West?” And for me, I never considered him to be truly All-Star worthy. He was putting up pretty nice scoring numbers. Actually, he’s putting up REALLY nice scoring numbers. In 48 games played this season, he’s averaging 26.2 points per game (sixth in NBA) on 46% shooting. Those seemingly are All-Star numbers. Throw in the fact that he’s averaging a career-high 5.4 assists per game and he’s made a nice case for himself.

But something has been lacking from Monta Ellis in what he’s doing. It’s definitely not the scoring and the playmaking has been pretty nice with the assists and steals he’s garnering (third in the league at 2.19). The minutes he’s been playing this season also seem to be preposterous. In ten games this season, he’s played every single tick of the clock with one of those being an overtime game. He played in three straight games from January 15^th to January 20th in which he didn’t sit out for a second. Just think about that for a minute.

He played 149 straight minutes of basketball in a three-game stretch. Vince Carter would rather play Russian roulette than be subjected to putting out that much effort. And yet, Monta did it on a terrible team going nowhere. He did it with a few D-Leaguers as his teammates instead of the bevy of promising players he thought he was getting the past two seasons.

And this is the conundrum that has been Monta Ellis this year. He’s been putting out superhuman efforts on many nights in which most stars would be mailing it in because they had little chance to win. He’s been willing to sacrifice his body in order to do the one thing he was put on this earth to do – score the basketball. However, when you look deeper into the numbers, you see he’s having truly unique season.

Let me just start off by saying that based on the numbers basketball-reference.com has, no one has ever averaged more than 25 points per game, more than 20 field goal attempts per game and had an offensive rating under 100 while having a defensive rating over 110. If Monta Ellis finishes out this season on the pace he’s going, he’ll be the first. I know it seems like a weird set of parameters to find similar NBA seasons but it’s a good glimpse into how wildly inefficient Monta has been for his team while being so awe-inspiringly impressive.

Here is a list of some stats to consider for Monta that show he’s kind of all over the place:

- 26.2 points per game (sixth)
- 5.4 assists per game (16^th)
- 22.3 field goal attempts per game (2^nd)
- 46.2% field goal (sixth amongst guards)
- 4.2 turnovers per game (first)
- 17.29 PER (71^st, 15.0 is league average)
- 99 offensive rating
- 114 defensive rating

While his scoring has been incredible and his ability to create turnovers with steals is also near the top of the league, his ability to efficiently score the basketball and defend his opponent have been quite subpar. We marvel at the scoring because that’s the name of the game – outscore your opponent and you win. With Monta, his supporters will be quick to fire back that his defense can’t be that bad because he is near the top in steals or they’ll wonder why you aren’t raking Steve Nash’s defensive liabilities across the coals in the same way. But that’s just a way of avoiding the issue at hand.

By the numbers, the Warriors are much worse off with him on the court than with him on the bench. The Warriors’ team offensive rating of 106.7 falls nearly eight points when Monta is out on the court (99 offensive rating mentioned above). And their defensive rating as a team is 110.6 but three to four points worse when he’s on the floor. While it seems like his scoring exploits make him an All-Star consideration, far more stats prove that he wasn’t snubbed at all.

While looking back at similar seasons and trying to fudge the parameters as much as I could to find an apt comparison for what Monta is doing, I found the 1977-78 campaign of Pete Maravich to be closest to what Ellis has done for the Warriors this season. Pistol put up 27 points on 44% shooting with 6.7 assists and 5.0 turnovers per game. He also had a PER of 17.6, an offensive rating of 96 (to his team’s 98.9) and a defensive rating of 103 (to his team’s 100.6). Maravich too was on a less than stellar team putting up gaudy superficial numbers while the efficiency and turnover numbers showed he was less than spectacular. And yet even then, he didn’t have as drastic a gap in the offensive and defensive ratings as Ellis is putting up this season.

So what does this all mean?

I’m not quite sure, to be honest with you. Ellis does some special things on a basketball court. He does the noble basketball deed of trying to carry a dog excrement team on his back while trying to outscore everybody by himself. And I don’t think he’s given much of a choice to the contrary. At the same time, how much does he really help his team if the efficiency numbers show that he’s actually hurting them when he’s on the court?

While trying to find the balance between what we see on the court and what we see with advanced stats, one thing is certain – Monta Ellis is unique in the way he’s playing basketball this season. He’s left alone to his own demise because he has no other people around him that are capable of carrying the load. He can’t rely on a rookie guard despite how much promise he shows. And he can’t rely on Corey Maggette and his band of merry D-Leaguers to provide proper support on most nights.

So he’s left out there in his big mansion all by himself – eating steak on the floor and waiting for another soul to show up and hopefully wake him out of his current purgatory.  Let’s just hope he isn’t completely ruined by the time this person shows up and he doesn’t bludgeon that person to death with a wooden bowling pin.