In the past few weeks, both the Celtics and the Lakers have shown interest in Hinrich. The Celtics could do a deal that would send Ray Allen for both Hinrich and Salmons, providing Boston ballhandling and depth on the wings and giving Chicago new hope for this summer. In any case, given all the chatter about Hinrich, I think the chances he'll be a Bull after Feb. 18 are increasingly slim.

via NBA trade season: Top 20 players most likely to be dealt – ESPN.

Allow me to share with you why the Boston deal won’t take place. Quite simply, it makes too much damn sense. Chicago’s fans either want a shooter they can rely on or cap room this summer. This accomplishes both goals in one swoop. The Celtics need younger role players that can play defense and give them some semblance of athleticism in a world where time has ravaged them of it. It’s perfect. So naturally, this will not happen.

Hinrich is essentially becoming the asset they’ve held onto for so long, no offer will be enough. They’ve probably entertained better offers in years past, and now they have to get something as good as that offer, which is probably off the table. But his value has gone down since then and tradeability has gone up. Being extremely tradeable isn’t the same as value, though. He has value as a player teams can trade for for a reasonable price, not as one they have to overpay for.

The Suns are still in active trade talks for Amare, with discussions initiated by both the Suns and other teams. The latest is that the Suns have talked to the Philadelphia 76ers about a swap of Stoudemire plus filler for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert.

While there are a lot of deals the Suns wouldn’t do, this is one in which they’re interested. It’s the Sixers that are holding up the process, I’m told. While nothing’s imminent, if Philadelphia GM Ed Stefanski sees an opportunity to unload Dalembert and thinks Stoudemire is the best player he can get, things could get hot quickly.

At the same time, the Suns are planning to make Stoudemire a contract offer in the next few days, according to a source close to the situation. As in every contract negotiation, the contract terms (years and dollar amount) are the main obstacles — while Stoudemire might want a max contract, that’s not what the Suns want to offer.

via NBA trade season: Top 20 players most likely to be dealt – ESPN.

Ford’s article has a ton of useful information, including how Amar’e's talk about not opting out impacts things. (By the way, that’s a bunch of crap- even if he thinks he’s not going to get a max contract, the CBA negotiations leaves open the possibility he could have a “worse” contract in 2011 versus 2010. He’s splitsville.) I hate taking this route, because there’s nothing that can be done now, but it needs to be said: This is what happens when you don’t move him once you recognize you think it’s a good idea.Now the opt-out is a mitigating factor, impacting who will move for him.

I understand the rational behind this move. Iguodala is a good player, and Dalembert (is a good player this season and) is expiring in 2011. Amar’e is expiring and it puts the Sixers in a real rebuilding mode (are you paying attention, Pacers?!). But from a basketball situation: OMGWTF4Real?

The Suns can put Iguodala and his massive-forever contract at the two guard… and bench Jason Richardson, which makes Barbosa fodder. Or they can spot Iggy at the three… which means Grant Hill is your reserve and Earl Clark is another wasted draft pick.

And the Sixers… What in hell? Brand-Amare, with Speights STILL on the bench? Just seems like a pretty random move, especially considering you’re not getting any long term pieces.

One of the problems with this trade season is that unlike previous years, none of the young, cap-free teams are shopping. OKC wants to keep its roster together organically. Portland’s already thrown in the towel on a push because the injuries have crushed them. Memphis is looking for bench help, not a full-bore upgrade (and don’t have any expirings). Minnesota’s still playing the “everything’s going to be fine! DO NOT PANIC! BE CALM AND CARRY ON!” thing.

Philadelphia might want to consider someone like Golden State. Move your established vets for short-term young players with upsides. Think of it as draft picks with shorter contracts.

Amar’e's got this power-broker positioning thing down pat. Ford mentions that he wants assurances that Sarver will spend to contend. Which to me is kind of odd because he’s already seen Sarver’s not exactly going that route. He’s not cheap, but he’s also not going out and trying to make a home run each time out. The Shaq acquisition was offset by merchandising and other benefits. Amare’s talking about winning and not making outlandish claims. The talk about not getting a max contract is also interesting. Basically, all the 2010 (potential) free agents are playing this game very well.

The universe we live in consists of a series of delicate balancing acts. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Each natural cycle consists of millions of potential pitfalls, but still manage to reach their end (and naturally, their beginning) due to a very specific give and take between an infinite number of potential factors. And in the NBA, two franchises have won almost all the championships, but they…well I mean…you see…I’ve got nothing. Basketball does, at times, exist in a vacuum. There are haves and have-nots with little room for mobility in-between.

But on this very day, one of those have-nots has finally taken a step to right the ship. The absolutely invincible, untouchable, immortal Mike Dunleavy, Sr. has finally been relieved of his duties as the head of the Clippers. In all honesty, he probably doesn’t deserve it. The Clippers’ roster is a muddled mess of mismatched talent, missing a pretty pivotal piece, and yet they’ve been borderline world-beaters this year. When motivated and clicking, this team is tough to beat. They’re just not built in a way that’s cogent enough to deal with the daily grind. That’s the team that Dunleavy is coaching this year, and that’s the team that, for awhile there, looked to be a Blake Griffin return away from a playoff push. Now they’re sitting comfortably at 12th in the West, and aside from a truly surprising Grizzlies team (/cutaway to Moore dancing), are they really displaced in the conference hierarchy?

Hardly. But this is a lifetime achievement firing. Dunleavy the coach and Dunleavy the GM have kept the franchise’s head underwater in the lottery cesspool, though the former is hardly as responsible as the latter. But when you consider just how difficult it is to cut ties with a coach/GM with another year under contract (for $5.5 million, no less), this is a crucial first step. Call me petty and vengeful, but I have no qualms about Dunleavy being fired today for his sins of yesteryear, especially if it means we’re that much closer to punishing the real culprit here. It’s hard to uproot a combo coach/GM all at once, but in relieving Dunleavy from his coaching job, the Clippers are that much closer to redemption and hopefully, legitimacy.

I don’t ask for a lot, sweet world. Enough food and water to keep me going. A warm place to lay my head at night. And for the hit 1986 movie “Rad” to be officially re-released on Blu-ray Disc. (Seriously. “Helltrack” and a young Lori Loughlin in crystal-clear high-definition? Yes, please and thank you!)

But there’s one more thing I’d like to add, and that is for Golden State Warriors guard Monta Ellis(notes) to be invited to participate in All-Star Weekend’s second annual H-O-R-S-E competition.

via Video: Monta Ellis goes over the backboard – Ball Don’t Lie – NBA Blog – Yahoo! Sports.

Really, if you put a gun to our heads we’d just suggest the entire Warriors team be put in the H-O-R-S-E contest, with the winner’s reward being they are bought out from the rest of their contract and don’t have to play for Nellie anymore. Not only would you have ridiculous shots, but they’d be killing one another to try and win. It would be the first ever full contact H-O-R-S-E game.

I liked last year’s competition, though I was in the minority. I guess I expected for it to be kind of slow and waiting, because that’s what watching a H-O-R-S-E game is. Mayo never got credit for going into the stands first. I like that they’re making it a regular thing, but it does need some ridiculous personalities to make it entertaining. You need two guys who can hit absolutely insane things, and then one guy who will just shoot free throws. Hey, maybe we can get Darko!

…

Yeah, maybe not.

from The Score, via friend of the HP family, Holly MacKenzie. My thoughts on this are many:

1. Kobe Bryant will rain on absolutely any parade, including a Valentine’s Day one.
2. Jarrett Jack is fifty different kinds of awesome.
3. Either Bargs or Hedo is a hairy, hairy man. I can’t decide which just yet, but one of them is lying.
4. Andrea Bargnani is a wild beast. Do not even attempt to tame him, for his is the call of the wild.

But while it never hurts players to be able to make more positive contributions in different ways on the court, it’s important not to fall into the trap of believing that players who are in the D-League need to completely remake themselves or add attributes that really aren’t within their means in order to be considered a viable option for the next level.

Dorsey’s case is perfect evidence of that. Rockets GM Daryl Morey made it quite clear just how concerned the big-league team was about Dorsey adding finesse elements to his game: not very.

“We want him to do the things that he’s going to have to do well at the NBA level,” More said. “We’re never looking for him to shoot a mid-range shot or have any post moves. That’s not something we see him doing at the NBA level. Obviously, we work on those things and want him to improve, but that’s not the focus. The focus is on doing the things he needs to do to get in the rotation in the NBA.”

via D-LeagueDigest.

It’s got to be frustrating being told to completely abandon concepts in your game that you’d worked so hard to build. You found that you had a shooter’s touch, so you endeavored to build range, only to find that every time you’re making an offensive move that doesn’t require your butt slamming into the other guy’s stomach, you’re not “getting it.”

But even the targeted things aren’t always enough. It’s easy to say rebounding is the secret to making it into the league, but then you look at some of the top rebounders for multiple years having never been touched. The lesson we’re learning is that development is a touchy subject and there really is no sure path. A team can put you on a long-term development plan and then stumble their way into a draft pick that ends up making more of an impact than expected. Small consolation for those anxiously awaiting the big payday, but at least such talk is within range; a few years ago, there was no point in getting your hopes up.

It’s been well documented that the Cavaliers’ infatuation with Antawn Jamison has been rekindled. What’s been underplayed is the reason behind it: LeBron James is the one driving the team’s pursuit of Jamison, according to a source, and Cavs GM Danny Ferry – as usual – is trying to appease the King. A couple of problems: The Wizards want a young asset in return, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas – while a fit salary-wise – doesn’t fit that description. The sensible piece to include in the deal would be J.J. Hickson, whom the Cavs are reluctant to give up. But if the Cavs got Jamison, what value would Hickson be to them as their fifth big man? One scenario that is believed to be under discussion would have the Cavs hoping the Wizards bought out Ilgauskas after the trade, using some cash added to the deal by Cleveland. That way, the Cavs could sign Ilgauskas back on a minimum deal, giving them the player James covets (Jamison) and a 7-foot-4 insurance policy for Shaquille O’Neal. The Wizards would have to ask themselves if getting out from under Jamison’s contract and adding Hickson is enough to justify a deal that would get them under the tax next summer, but not under the cap.

• If the Cavs can’t get Jamison, Indiana’s Troy Murphy is Plan B. And yes, there’s a Plan C — Andre Iguodala. Whereas the Cavs’ front office believes Jamison could help them win a championship this year, Iguodala would be more of a long-term solution. And he better be, with four years and $56 million left on his deal.

via Weekly Post-Ups – CBSSports.com.

This is going to get complicated if the Rockets are pursuing Butler (or anyone else is). The Wizards should dump all of the big three. Scrap this, start it over.  That won’t be happening, though, so if Butler goes, Jamison stays and vice versa. I also can’t see the Wizards being willing to just be a clearing house for the Cavs. Hickson, though, looks to be a pretty solid player and would be a good asset. If the Cavs had any young guards they could spare, that would be ideal, but of course, they don’t, though I suppose you could toss Green in there for good measure.

That James is pushing for this should be no surprise. It’s this terrible miscommunication act that’s seemed to have gone on for years. LeBron wants a star, a guaranteed star to put next to him because he knows that will put them over the top and into unquestionable elite status. Essentially, “if Kobe can do what he’s doing with Pau, what can I do with a real sidekick?” But instead, Ferry has perpetually given him supporting casts. It’s like instead of going out and signing Seth Rogen for Funny People, the director decided to cast the entire Broken Lizard comedy troupe. Don’t get me wrong, I’ll watch Beerfest and  Supertroopers all day long. But you need one guy to help carry the film. And don’t bring Shaq in here. He was a discount superstar, like finding a used Corvette. Sure it’s got a ton of miles on it and the paint job’s questionable, but it’s still a Corvette. That doesn’t mean it’s the best vehicle available.

Clevelanders should also be welcoming James’ insistence. If he’s asking for Jamison, that means he wants a long-term component to help him win multiple titles in Cleveland. It makes no sense to ask the Cavs to sacrifice if he’s just going to be leaving them stranded. At the same time, asking him to make a commitment to Cleveland for the next six years is going to be difficult if you don’t show him you’ll do whatever it takes to help him win a title. The importance of this decision, in the most important season in Cleveland Cavaliers’ history, cannot be overstated.

Hi, my name is Tom Haberstroh.  I write over at Hoopdata.com about the NBA and occasionally perform statistical magic over at ESPN Insider.  I have two middle names and enjoy watching Serge Ibaka play basketball.  Chris Paul, Randolph Childress and Muggsy Bogues went to my alma mater and my favorite Crayola color is jungle green.

The topic of interest in my first piece here at Hardwood Paroxysm centers around team shot location.   At Hoopdata, we track how teams shoot from five different areas of the floor: at the rim (layups, dunks, and tip-ins), less than ten feet, 10-15 feet, 16-23 feet, and beyond the three-point line.  There you will discover, among other things, that the Chicago Bulls take an outrageous number of long twos and the Washington Wizards’ defensive unit practically ushers the ball through the basket on shots at the rim.  Today, the statistic I am particularly interested in is shot location field goal percentage.  More specifically, if a team is horrible at shooting around the basket, how much worse does it get when they face a team that protects the rim?

Take, for example, Monday night’s matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Orlando Magic. The Bucks are just about the worst team in the NBA when it comes to converting shots at the rim as their 56.0 FG% from there ranks 29th in the league.  Dwight Howard and the Magic have the very best opponent at rim percentage (55.1 FG%).  So, what happened? The Bucks missed 11 of their 20 shots at the rim while getting swatted eight times on the evening.  And for the just the third time all year, Brandon Jennings didn’t take a layup all game.  I wondered if this was a typical performance for a poor-rim offensive squad taking on a stellar rim-defense and whether this opposite holds true when the tables are turned.

To shed more light on my curiosity, I ranked each team of 2009-10 by their field goal percentage from each area and separated the league into thirds depending on rank in the category.  Teams ranked 1-10 get tossed in the Good bin, 11-20 into Average, and 21-30 into Poor.  You may have seen this filing method before over at 82games.com.  So for example, the Chicago Bulls offense ranks 30th at the rim (Poor), 7th from less than 10 feet (Good), 5th  from 10-15 feet (Good), 28th from 16-23 feet (Poor) and 14th from 3-point (Average).  I then gathered every game (over 1,400 matchups in the sample) and calculated the field goal percentage in each shot location area.  So, on average, what happens to a poor at rim defense when it faces a good at rim offense? Let’s take a look.

I’ll walk you through this.  Defenses are separated by columns and the offenses are separated by rows.  At the end of each column and row, you’ll find the average for that group.  Ignoring the intersections for the moment, you see that the collective Good defensive group allows a .578 field goal percentage on shots at the rim and good offensive teams average .635.  Now when they meet (say, when the Cavaliers, a Good at rim offense, faces the Celtics, a Good at rim defense), the Good offense shoots 61.3 percent from the area, on average.  With me? I’ll take that as a yes.

As expected, teams perform better if their opponent defends worse in that area.  The empirical evidence confirms our intuition.  The Bucks-Magic matchup represents an extreme case on both ends,  so the Bucks’ 45.0 FG% makes sense.  On the other end of the spectrum, a good offense will dominates the poor defense, converting almost 2-out-of-every-3 shots at the basket.  Interestingly, a poor defense will make a poor offense look average by comparison and a good offense will make an average defense look poor.   Let’s take a look at shots inside 10 feet (not at the rim).

We see much of the same trends here in this one.  It really hurts to be a poor in this area offensively going up against a good defense.  Despite the near proximity to the basket, poor teams shoot  36.6 percent against good squads or roughly the same as the typical squad shoots from downtown.   This zone gets about a third less shot traffic compared to the at rim zone, so the results will be more varied in one-game snap shots.   How about the 10-15 feet area?

It doesn’t really pay all that much to be a good offensive team going against a good defensive team from the mid-range; the good and average offenses are nearly identical on average (.379 vs. .380).  That’s the first time we’ve seen such a case.  The typical team only gets about 7 shots per game from this area, so the numbers here will tend to exhibit more statistical noise.  Nonetheless, if you’re facing a good defense in the mid-range, don’t expect your shots to drop no matter how well you normally shoot from there.  Let’s take a look at what we see from the least efficient area of the five: the long two.

Long twos are much more stable than the rest of the fields we’ve looked at.  The spread between PoorO-GoodD and GoodO-PoorD is only 68 percentage points whereas in the  previous ranges the spreads were 111 at the rim, 139 from short, and132 from mid.  But this follows the bigger picture.   A good long two shooting team isn’t a whole lot better than a bad one.   However, if you can’t normally knock down long jumpers inside the three point line (attn: Bulls), don’t get too  excited when you face a bad defensive team on the perimeter.  You’re still probably going to miss more than 60% of your shots from there.

Interestingly enough, a good defensive squad in this area has the opposite effect compared to the mid-range.  Compare the good defense columns.  Field goal percentage against good defenses actually increases from .366 to .380 as you migrate further away from the mid-range to long-range twos.  Either a good mid-range D is especially suffocating or a good long-range D doesn’t amount to much in the end.   A third explanation could be that the low sample size of mid-range shots on a game-by-game level produces some whacky results.   And finally, moving onto the three point line.

For the purpose of staying consistent, I’ve presented the three-point numbers in field goal percentage as opposed to effective field goal percentage.  Just keep in mind that even though the most advantageous situation yields only a 37.9 FG%, the added bonus of 1 point makes a world of difference.  And much like shots from 16-23 feet,  the spread between the best and worst intersection is only 73 points.  Take a look at what happens when a good three-point shooting team goes from an average opposing defense to a poor one.  The percentage actually decreases on average from .386 to .379.  Good shooters from a particular area tend to improve across the board, however, from beyond the arc there doesn’t seem to be a discernible advantage.   I’d only be speculating as to why this might be the case, if there is in fact a real effect here, but it could be that the difficulty of three-point shooting caps the shooter’s ceiling.  The best shooting teams from long distance can only shoot so well since the threeball rarely goes in to begin with.

Like most studies, there’s plenty of room for more digging and statistical analysis.  The logical next step would be to gather the variability, or standard deviations, of the  presented figures.  That way, we can see the overlap and strengthen our expectations.  In this piece, I analyzed the league on a macro level but I could take this in other directions as well.  How does each team perform against the various defenses?  Moreover, do good shooting teams take more shots in areas where they have the upper hand?  I’ll have to save those questions for another time.  But for now, it does appear that teams experience greater success if the defense is weak in a particular zone.  So keep these numbers in mind as you prepare for your team’s next game.

Stay tuned for more shot location analysis in the future editions of NBA HD.

Oklahoma City got a huge win over Atlanta with Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green, and Kevin Durant combining for 64 points. This team is so much better when they get even contributions. You know what they say. Live together, die alone.

via Daily Dime: Nets lose again — and lose Del Harris, too – ESPN.

I put up something silly over at the Dime about the league and LOST.

Live together, die alone, and whatnot.

You know, we keep giving stats writers this platform to share their work outside their own nerdish confines and they keep winding up with better jobs than us. What gives? Oh, advanced degrees and empirical thinking gives. Right. Should have picked up on that sooner.

Our esteemed stats writer, Mr. Jon Nichols of Nichols and Dime and Basketball-Statistics.com is leaving us for another position. We’re excited for his new Association with his employer, whoever it is, and we expect great things from him in the future. Much thanks to Jon for his work here.

Moving on to our next moving target, I’m very excited to announce that on Thursday we’ll unveil our newest stats column, NBA HD, written by Tom Haberstroh of HoopData.com. If you’ve been paying attention at all, you know we love HoopData and that they’ve become our go-to NBA stats source. We’re thrilled to have Tom on board.

Allright, carry on, nothing to see here, move along.