Comments on: NBA HD: The Sustainability of Shooting

By: The 10-man rotation, starring the best in-game dunkers | Inside Hollywood Sports

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 23:55:54 +0000

[...] I’ll go J.R.PF: SB Nation. Kenny, Charles, and EJ are calling the Bulls-Heat game tonight.SF: HP. How sustainable is shooting?SG: The No-Look Pass. Totally normal Lakers-themed wedding swag.PG: [...]

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 14:34:40 +0000

I mean Tom… sorry… I saw this in KP’s retweet

By: DSMok1

DSMok1 — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 14:33:26 +0000

Brilliant work, KP! This will help projections considerably!

Now all we need is some way to predict the number of shots taken per possession. Ouch. That’s hard.

By: el_horse

el_horse — Fri, 26 Mar 2010 08:40:19 +0000

The Rose para is untrue. All you can say from the data is that there is no way of telling what Rose’s production will be next year, not that its gonna fall.

From your graph, it is as likely to stay where it is as it is to fall below average. All that correlation says in this example is that the conditional distribution of next year’s fg% is not skewed by this year’s fg%

By: Sports news » Blog Archive » The 10-man rotation, starring the best in-game dunkers

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 06:20:34 +0000

By: Blazersedge Ben

Blazersedge Ben — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 22:39:54 +0000

this was fun !

By: Trey

Trey — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 22:24:37 +0000

Rose does not have a mean level yet, as young players continue to elevate their games. So you can’t say with certainty that statistics predict that he will fall back down next year, whereas infact, his baseline may well be at 58-60%.

Once we have enough data on a player (Maggatte) than yes this analysis is a nice tool for spotting outliers.

By: Mike D

Mike D — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 22:23:27 +0000

Very nice! Thank you!

By: preet

preet — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 22:17:33 +0000

this is a really good article, thanks for the read.

i really love seeing basketball and regression on the same page. makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside haha

By: shane

shane — Thu, 25 Mar 2010 20:44:51 +0000

If someone is bad in a first season, or their percentages fall off a cliff at the beginning of a second, it is more likely that they won’t be shooting 50 shots by the end of the second season. You could model this as a type of censoring, perhaps, and see what the effects of endogeneity are in this case.