NBA Playoffs: (4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Miami Heat – The Unknown (Disclaimer: This Is Not an M. Night Shyamalan movie)

The Celtics are a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a conundrum wrapped in a knee brace.

No one thinks this team has a shot at making the Finals — and rightfully so. Personally, I would be shocked if Boston even made the Eastern Conference Finals. They’re old. They’re slow. They’re inconsistent. They’re cavalier. (And, not in an amazing, LeBron Jamesian way or even a crazy, fantastical Delonte West way either). Most importantly, they simply have not been playing good basketball for the last two-thirds of the season. (They’re a Chicago Bulls-like 27-27 during their past 54 games.)

We know all this.

Still, they are better than most people think. And it’s almost entirely because of the defense. You just can’t get a 5th ranked defense by accident. The schemes, the commitment and — yes, even in 2010 — the personnel got it done this year. Kevin Pelton rightly points out that KG can still play some defense. He may overstate the case a little, and few people have made more jokes about KG’s gimpy knee than I have, but the reports of The Kid’s death have been greatly exaggerated. You look at photos like this and think back to the infamous Saturday afternoon when he allowed Al Harrington to look like Bernard King in MSG, and it’s easy to dismiss all the good stuff Garnett does out there even while less fleet-of-foot than ever. This isn’t 2004, sure, but particularly with Kendrick Perkins standing next to him, KG can anchor very good defense.

And he has done exactly that this year.

Outside of Rondo for the first 45 minutes and Pierce for the last 3, there isn’t much about Boston’s offense that should terrify anyone. Ray Allen is finally shooting like Ray Allen again (40.3% from three since the All-Star Break compared to 33.8% prior) and KG, even on one leg, can still make the mid-range jumper, but, if you’re Miami — especially if you’re Miami — or any other team, figuring out how to stop the Celtics isn’t the biggest hurdle to exposing Boston’s geriatric mediocrity.

The challenge is figuring out how to score on them. And that’s not something Miami does particularly well. (They’re 19th in offensive rating and 15th in effective field goal percentage). Flash is Flash, and he’s as much of a rock as anyone we have in this league (and I’d still argue that he is underrated), so he’ll obviously get his. But the key for Miami won’t be hoping Dwyane pours in a few 43-point nights and jumps on the scorer’s table and tells his fans whose house it is. Whether or not the Heat can advance depends more on consistent production from everyone else. They need points from the guys Charles Barkley calls “a bunch of Tito Jacksons.”

Can Beasley, aka the East Coast Lamar Odom Sans All the Versatility, show up to play two games in a row? Can JO do more than just protect the paint? Will Carlos Arroyo keep playing the point well enough to let Wade play off the ball? Will Udonis get the minutes he deserves? Will Q and Chalmers hit their open threes? Can Dorell Wright finally translate his scoring ability into enough a playoff success to actually make me remember whether or not his name has two Rs or two Ls without fact-checking? (/googles dorrell wright)

I know that asking a bunch of obvious questions is a lame way to try to provide insight into this series, but I honestly have no idea if any of those things will happen. I don’t think anyone does, frankly. Not Eric Spoelstra. Not Pat Riley. Definitely not Dwyane Wade. Anyone who tells you different is either a liar or someone who somehow got a hold of the Gray’s Sports Almanac Biff brought back from the future.

But there are a few things we do know: (1) The Heat will play high-level defense, (2) The Celtics will play high-level defense, (3) Boston will execute well enough late in games and get enough big buckets out of Pierce, Rondo, Ray and maybe even KG to grab a win or two, (4) Dwyane Wade’s parents are not strong spellers.

The only thing left that we’re really not sure about is whether or not the Heat, who have won 9 of their last 10 games and an ungodly 18 of their last 22, will score enough to ensure that that late-season run continues.

I would love to see it happen.

But I doubt it does.

Boston in 6