NBA Playoffs: (2) Dallas Mavericks vs. (7) San Antonio Spurs, In Which We Meet Again, Old Friends

Remember, Remember, or Get Lost Forever:

The Slice:

Oh, sure, they met last year. But no one really seems to remember it, like it was just wiped from our memories like Sun’s English. But throw out the season finale’s Manu-Duncan-Parker-less game, and the Mavs are still 9-2 against the Spurs lately. That’s pretty damn good. The Spurs have been so brilliant over the last decade it’s easy to forget that only three teams have eliminated them from postseason play in that timespan. The Los Angeles Lakers, the Phoenix Suns, WAY back in 99-00, and the Dallas Mavericks. The reason for this is the simple truth that Dallas’ core causes San Antonio fits. Much of the mid-00′s roster is gone, but most have also been upgraded. Shawn Marion, able to defend multiple positions and counter the Spurs’ rebounding grit with athleticism and savvy. Jason Kidd, somehow shooting better as he gets older, adding veteran knowledge and now the team flows around him. Roddy Beaubois, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, good, good, good.

What’s interesting is that Dirk Nowitzki feels like the big differential. But in the last two playoff series, here’s Dirk’s line. 91-177  (51%), 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rb, 2.5 assists, 1.25 steals, .5 blocks, 2.4 fouls. Here’s Duncan: 121-221 (54%), 27.08 ppg, 10.17 rb, 3.5 assists, .8 steals, 2.00 blocks (!), 3.25 fouls. So in reality, it’s not like Dirk has been some vanquisher.

In fact, looking at their last two playoff meetings, Josh Howard was actually the difference maker. Howard averaged 17.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.25 assists, and .83 steals against the Mavs in those two series. That’s a pretty significant line for Caron Butler or Shawn Marion to need to match.  In wins, Howard dropped a line of 19,6, 1.5, and 1. The big differential in the 06 series was Devin Harris, who averaged 16 points in the Mavs’ four wins, and only 8 in their losses, without really contributing anything else.

The lesson here is that trying to figure out why the Mavs have had such success against the juggernaut is kind of tricky, but much of it is the Mavericks’ ability to create efficient shots. They tend to use ball movement and brute force to get to the middle. They’re not a tough team, by any stretch, but they can act like one.

Mano-A-Mano:

How about Jefferson versus Matrix?  You’ve got RJ’s length and occasional ability to knock down and create shots versus Matrix’s all-over-the-place-ness. Marion could make life hell for Jefferson, or Jefferson could use some quickness in the post to create some mismatches. The ability for Dallas’ bigs to stay healthy and out of foul trouble plays heavily here. Marion can be a huge asset at the 3, but at the four, he’s going to have difficulty against Duncan who can still drop 35 easy. The Spurs need to drag Jefferson off multiple screens to make life hard for Marion. Jefferson’s been great off the cut this season, but takes that approach much less than he does an ISO set, which he hasn’t been good at. The Spurs need Jefferson to be the knife, not the hand wielding it.

Prediction:

The Mavs’ are hot, loaded, and filled with bacony goodness. I’d like the Spurs against any other team in the West, and I do mean ANY other team in the West, but this was a nightmare draw for them. SA puts up a fight, but injuries and a Dirk-o-rama puts the Spurs away in six.

Oster-Tags: Dallas Mavericks, heyrememberthefoulthatwasntafoulbutwasafoulololol, NBA playoffs, ohyestherewillbeusagecharts, San Antonio Spurs