Normally, this is how you would describe how great teams play in the playoffs. In 2008, the Celtics defense was suffocating. In 2004, the Pistons defense was suffocating. In 2003, 2005, and 2007 the Spurs defense was often suffocating. It’s just what great teams do when they’re marching their way through the playoffs. But that’s not how this Nuggets team put away a banged up Jazz team in the first game of this series.
The Nuggets offense was absolutely suffocating in the fourth quarter. There was no way the Jazz were going to be able to escape it. So often, you wonder what the hell a team can do to stop an elite offense when it’s clicking. But in this game, I kept wondering if the Jazz were going to be able to get away from the bombardment of three-pointers and scores inside.
This series isn’t going to be won on defense because there’s just simply not enough of it to go around. The defense in this series can’t compete with the offensive firepower. To worry how the Jazz are going to stop the perimeter onslaught of the Nuggets just doesn’t make a lot of sense. The real thing to figure out is how you can keep scoring. Against another team, you worry about defending the other team’s offensive sets. In this series, the Nuggets and Jazz just want to keep scoring and try to end up with the final run of the game.
The Jazz looked to be uncomfortable with the way the game was headed but completely unable to do anything about it. Deron Williams gave it a valiant effort. He finished with great numbers and had 20 points and nine assists in the second half alone. But he’s got to have a better option to guard Carmelo and JR Smith other than Kyle Korver. He can’t have Wesley Matthews on the court for 38 minutes and finish with only six points.
When the game is going that way, it sucks the air right out of the Jazz’s lungs. It overwhelms you completely.
It’s just suffocating offense. You can only be consumed by it.
Playoff Paroxi-Notes
- Let’s talk about that fourth quarter for a minute. The Nuggets put up 38 points in the fourth quarter of a playoff game. No big deal. They were on the verge of dropping game one and home court advantage and they responded by scoring 38 points. That means something. It means they’re good offensively and have guys that will stick daggers in your like Danny Trejo in Desperado. Carmelo Anthony was throwing daggers. JR Smith was throwing sabres. And Chauncey Billups even performed a little acupuncture with his three to push the lead from 11 to 14.
Carmelo Anthony and JR Smith combined for 30 of the Nuggets 38 points. But it wasn’t some beautiful display of offense that made you think that these guys were just in a rhythm. It was forceful and exuberant scoring. It was the equivalent of slapping a wild predator in the jungle and then staring it right in the face. It was mean-mugging with your offense. Carmelo scored on jumpers and layups. JR Smith scored by holding a H-O-R-S-E competition.
My theory on how to stop JR Smith for the rest of the series is to completely ignore him. He wants attention. He wants it badly and he knows how to get it. He feeds off the frustration defenders show from him hitting these insanely quick threes. But what if you ignore him the entire game? Don’t even look at him when he’s shooting. Don’t pay attention to him when he has the ball. Only look at him through your peripherals. Wouldn’t that get him to stop peacocking on the court?
- When I previewed this series, I talked about how health was going to play into the outcome of this series. Melo rolled his ankle but was still able to play and play well. Mehmet Okur took a bad step and went down with an Achilles injury. He didn’t come back into the game. After the MRI, I suspect we won’t see him the rest of this post-season. Andrei Kirilenko is apparently going to miss two weeks and he was the only chance of containing Carmelo. And see what Carmelo did without AK to whisper long prose Russian poetry in his ear to distract him on his jumper?
- Are we sure that Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap get things done? I know they had nice stats. They combined for 34 points, 18 rebounds, seven assists and six blocks. But what exactly did they do in this game? They plodded along and made sure to fill out the box score. But they didn’t stop the Nuggets from scoring inside (52 points in the paint). They didn’t provide any crunch time scoring when the Jazz desperately needed to keep up (combined seven points on six shots in the fourth). And looking ahead, if they don’t have Kirilenko or Okur the rest of this series, how can they possibly hang with the big men of Denver? Can they even hang with Chris Andersen? I just don’t see them doing anything.
- So where do the Jazz go with their frontcourt from here? You can’t play Kostas Koufos at all. He’s not good. Put him against Nene, look away for a second and then look back and you’ll see Nene eating a gyro. Can you really trust Kyrylo Fesenko to do anything? I feel like Kenyon Martin will steal his lunch money and force him to act as an ottoman whenever he feels like lounging. So you have to roll with Boozer and Millsap while praying that Fesenko can match Chris Andersen when he comes into the game.
The one thing you can do is have Fesenko unleash one big dunk. He can be good for that when the other team is least expecting it. But it’s wasted in a road game. It has to be at home. In this series, if the Jazz go back to Utah down 0-2, will it be too late?
The Orlando Magic are going to win this series because they’re one of the best teams in the league. It’s just a matter of how much resistance the Bobcats can offer, and a lot of that will come down to Charlotte’s ability to limit Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, and Vince Carter. Theo Ratliff and Tyson Chandler will do what they can against Dwight, but the real battles will be waged in the other matchups. Charlotte has some good to great defenders at all of those positions, it’ll just come down to holding those three down and finding some semblance of a rhythm on the offensive end. That’s the formula for Charlotte, and although Gerald Wallace, Stephen Jackson, and Raymond Felton figure to work well defensively against Orlando’s trio, asking the Bobcats offense to score many points against the Magic D is a bit unreasonable. Charlotte will win some games, but not enough to really scare Orlando.
That’s not what this playoff series is about, though. The Charlotte Bobcats are in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, and while I wouldn’t say they’re just happy to be here, being here really matters. This is a franchise without a definite future. With no history to act as an anchor, there is really nothing to keep the Bobcats from drifting away from Charlotte just like the Hornets did. With no success, there was nothing to motivate fans to come watch their team play, and those bottom line struggles end up negatively affecting the product. The Bobcats were caught in a downward spiral, and seemed doomed to be the next expansion team that took a decade to crawl out of the hole they (though not without fault to the system) dug for themselves.
Not anymore. I’m not going to pretend that Charlotte is loaded with young talent on the rise like OKC or even Sacramento, but the Charlotte Bobcats are in the playoffs. The East is a weak conference and blahdy blahdy blah, but this team has finally done enough damage to make it into the postseason. For San Antonio that might qualify as just another day at the office, but for Charlotte? This means something. It doesn’t have to be as heavy as the franchise moving away or 10 years of misery, but it means that something on this team is working. It means that the decision to hire Larry Brown wasn’t a foolish one, even if his last stop was a disaster. It means that Wallace and Felton can be part of a winning formula, even if its one that was just two games over .500. Think about that. For the last three seasons Charlotte has hovered around the .400 mark, and this season they suddenly jumped to .540 to finally bring the playoffs back to Charlotte.
Larry Brown deserves plenty of credit, but so does Michael Jordan. The GOAT doesn’t have a spotless record with the Cats, but the work he’s done in Charlotte so far is unfairly disregarded. Just as you should be watching every game looking to see something new and learn something new about the teams and players, we should go through every day looking to learn something more about the people that run those teams. This isn’t Washington Wizards Michael running the show, even if they share the same form, the same smirk, the same confidence (insert negative synonym here if you so wish). This is the guy that hired Larry Brown, the best coach in franchise history. He snatched away Boris Diaw, and although Boris has struggled at points this season, he’s been a big part of Charlotte’s greater renaissance. He had the audacity to take on Stephen Jackson, who has been pretty fantastic this season. He brought in guys like Tyrus Thomas, Theo Ratliff, and the now-departed Flip Murray, who have made a legitimate difference for the Cats this season. If only someone could do that whole drafting thing for him, the Bobcats would be alright.
I feel like this playoff appearance is a validation for Gerald Wallace. His skills were never legitimately under fire, as he’s been asked to carry the load for the Bobcats when that’s clearly not his game. Still, this is Gerald’s first playoff appearance as “the man,” even if Jax is the man taking the big shots. Wallace is the best player on this Charlotte team, and to finally make the playoffs after six years of falling short is a tremendous development. For some of that time, the Bobcats were really bad. At other points, they just weren’t quite good enough. Now, due to circumstances, internal development, and a transition to an owner/manager who is actually making some surprisingly good moves, they’re good to join the adult table.
The Bobcats may not have much in the way of cap space or young assets, but the biggest growth is in the front office. This is a franchise making a legitimate attempt to improve. It’s a new day, Bobcats and kittens.
How good do you think the Phoenix Suns are? If you said anything less than really, really damn good, go back to sentence one and try again. This team has the goods, is riding a hell of a wave, and could benefit most from the tremendous parity in the Western Conference. The Roy-less Blazers might be the most favorable matchup in the West right now for just about any team, and should Phoenix take care of business quickly as I expect them to, they’ll have plenty of time to rest up for their tough second round opposition (either Dallas or San Antonio, the latter of which Phoenix fears more than the former).
But do you know what this series really is? It’s an extension of the divine will that seeks to crush the Blazers. Supernatural forces of some kind — basketball gods, voodoo magic, David Bowie in the Labyrinth — have tripped the Blazers every step of the way, and this series is really no different. It’s not enough that Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla were Tonya Hardinged by ghosts with crowbars, that a hex was cast on Portland’s wings, or that someone out there has a sick sense of humor and a Brandon Roy voodoo doll. On top of all of that, the Blazers drew one of the hottest teams in the league that happens to be their stylistic counter. This is a real series with a healthy Roy, but remove Brandon from the lineup (and shift Portland’s wings up the depth chart accordingly) and you’re looking at a team that doesn’t have much of a chance to keep up with the Suns on offense. The Blazers are an efficient offensive club, but just how efficiently can their meticulous, half-court look be without Roy to facilitate?
The Blazers were still very impressive after Roy went down, but this feels like one injury too many. The Suns’ reserves have been incredibly effective this season, and their ability to maintain a high intensity level has been crucial to Phoenix’s success. Maybe the same could have been said at the beginning of the season regarding Portland, but as every possible break went the other way, the Blazers’ impressive preseason depth was systematically erased. Adding Marcus Camby really, really helps, but Phoenix is an odd matchup for him; Amar’e Stoudemire is a tough cover when he’s playing like a basketball player, but right now he’s more of a one-man revolution. Who does Camby really cover in this series? Putting him out on the perimeter defending a guy like Channing Frye seems like a waste, and the Suns’ ball movement and ability to hit open shooters on the perimeter would seem to help negate Marcus’ defensive impact.
It may seem like cheap analysis, but Phoenix is just a better team. They’re loaded with more talent than a lot of people realize, and to see this team operate over the last few weeks has been a rather distinct pleasure. With Robin Lopez in the mix, you’re looking at possibly the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Without him, you’re still looking at one of the most dynamic teams in the conference, and they’re better at defense than they let on. This is going to be a fun playoff run for Phoenix, and as much as I hate to dismiss the Blazers, this first round is only the beginning.
The Suns aren’t going to run the Blazers off the floor, because the Blazers are simply too good and too resilient. It’d be a disservice to them to claim that Phoenix was going to win every game in a walk, or that this series wasn’t going to be competitive. That said, I’d expect this thing to be over rather quickly, and regardless of whether or not the final margin is within 10 points, playoff wins are playoff wins. I’ll take the Suns in five, mostly because their offense will flow seamlessly against the Blazers’ D while the Blazers will struggle a bit without Roy, and because Phoenix’s criminally underrated bench will blow Portland’s out of the water.
I’m fairly certain that Kevin Harlan‘s head actually contains an entire universe. I have no other way of explaining his unbelievable ability to retain such a wide swath of information. Harlan is a play-by-play announcer for CBS’ NFL coverage, CBS’ college basketball coverage, Westwood One’s college basketball and NFL radio coverage, as well as, of course, the other primary play-by-play man for TNT’s NBA coverage alongside Marv Albert. So, you know, he’s kind of been around. And he manages to maintain an intimate knowledge of those three sports while bringing a unique style and voice to the broadcast, which has led to him being considered one of the best all around sports announcers in television and radio history. Perhaps no more so than in the NBA, where his famous calls are both numerous and classic.
And of course:
Harlan was kind enough to spare a few minutes on the phone with me Friday afternoon to talk about his hometown and mine, Kansas City, the infamous “no regard for human life” call, and a few things about the NBA Playoffs. My thanks to Kevin and Turner Media for their time and consideration.
MM: How much prep work goes into a playoff game versus a regular season game?
KH: We’ve figured, much as I’m sure ESPN has, that you’re getting a large portion of new viewers who haven’t watched for the duration of the regular season. Much as it is with college basketball, the NHL, or even MLB, the interest rises once the postseason starts. So you can’t assume they’ve been with you, following the storylines or learning about the players. So part of our focus is to provide some background, set the characters early.
On the other hand, we know that there are viewers that have been with us the whole season, and we certainly don’t want to insult them, so it’s a fine line to walk. Usually one line can get it done for a player, often enough, though. How many years they’ve been in the league, All-Star, etc.
At the same time, we don’t limit things that Doug and I have been talking about all season. We’ll set the table in two ways. 1. We’ll bring people up to date on the latest information about particular players they may not know about and 2. We’ll refresh story lines to give context to what we’ve been talking about all season.
MM: I know you started with the Kings here in Kansas City, then did some time for your Alma mater at the University of Kansas for Football, and then returned to the NBA with the Timberwolves. I was curious as to what led to your decision to return to calling the NBA?
KH: Well, I was with the Kings for years out of college, and I wanted to stay here. My wife and I met out of college and both loved the area. I was lucky enough to get a job with the Chiefs, and I was there for 9 years. And in, I think it was ’89, I was in Dallas for Missouri basketball in the NCAA tournament for a second round game. And at that time, the Missouri radio network was huge, with stations all over. And it just so happened that at that time, Tim Leiweke was driving from Kansas City to Minnesota to take the job with the expansion Timberwolves. He was listening to the radio coverage of the game, and spur of the moments, his associates and he decided to consider me for the announcer position.
It just so happened that one of the Sweet 16 sites that year was… Minneapolis at the Metrodome. So they invited me to lunch while I was in town, and at the time I just thought it was one Kansas Citian being nice to another, but it turned out to be a job offer. So I debated it with my family, which was tough at the time. We’d just had our first child and were pregnant with another. So I called Bob Costas to get his thoughts on the matter. And the kicker in his mind was that the job included 25 TV games as well as a number of radio games. He told me that I needed more television exposure and because of that I should take the offer. So it was a combination of a little luck, some Kansas City ties, and the strong recommendation of Bob Costas. And it’s fortunate because from there I went on to ABC for a year, and then ESPN for 2 years, and then Fox. So it was a great decision.
MM: As a Kansas City native, I wanted to touch base with you on the prospect of Kansas City as an NBA city. I spoke with Byron Scott and a few of the Hornets when they were here in November for a preseason game, and they were all stunned by the Sprint Center. I wanted to know what you thought some of the challenges would be for an NBA franchise in Kansas City, and it’s viability.
KH: I think the big thing would be the need to lure companies to buy blocks of tickets, given the economic picture not only of the country but of Kansas City specifically. You’d have to do some extensive research to consider what they’d be facing. There’s growth in Kansas City, though I’d say it’s smaller, and it’s more south, away from downtown. Then you’ve got to consider the impact of there being three major league sports teams (the Chiefs, Royals, and Wizards), plus MU 2 hours away, KU an hour away, and KState nearby. You’ve got minor league hockey now. So you’d have to consider if the market can support that kind of volume of sports fans. But you never know.
Now, on the positive, people here follow college basketball so closely, it’s built into the culture for them to follow those players when they go to the NBA. Not just from the Big 12, but all college basketball. So it has that going for it. I would just be concerned about how thin the dollar is.
One thing, though, is that unlike the Royals or Chiefs stadiums, which are kind of out on their on, the Sprint Center is right downtown. And that would lead to people being able to do things they can’t do for Royals or Chiefs games. You can go downtown, have dinner with a business associate or your family, go catch a game, and then afterwards go for a drink, or a late dinner or dessert. There really hasn’t been a test of that. But that’s something I’d be very interested to see some studies about.
MM: I consider your “No regard for human life” call for LeBron in the ’08 playoffs to be one of the best basketball calls of all time. I know you used the line before with Kobe, I was kind of curious as to where you came up with it.
KH: You know, it was actually with the Timberwolves. It was a regular season game, some Tuesday night game, and the Timberwolves were just turning the corner with a young Kevin Garnett. They were finally stating to come around a bit. I was doing radio, it wasn’t television, and he came down with such a violent slam dunk, that the people in the lane defending him, or trying to defend him were so… scared of what was going on, he came down, and just gave this look. This completely menacing look.
And you know during those games, the regular season radio games, we were pretty loose, and we’d come up with silly little sayings to entertain ourselves, and it just kind of came out of that. It was one of those spur of the moment sayings.
And then later, Kobe came around a corner and delivered a devastating dunk on Sprewell, and it had the same feel to it so I used it again.
And with LeBron, you know, he had the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Kevin Garnett defending him, or trying to. And he came into that dunk with such a devastating force, Garnett couldn’t even have hoped to defend it. His arm extended, and it was almost what seemed a telescopic extension. And he came down, with this such menacing, violent, overpowering force, that it just kind of came out. It was one of those unexplained, “use your gut” type calls. And while I don’t think it’s one of my best, people such as yourself have certainly told me they liked it, so I’m glad it kind of came together the way it did. I probably won’t use it again, just because it came together so well.
MM: I know you’ve recently started Twittering, I wanted to check in and see how that’s going. Are they pushing you to do more of that?
KH: They’ve said they’d like for us to, I know they have several of us doing it, like I know Kenny uses it quite a bit. And you know, they told us that people want to read things like “Eating a cupcake” or whatever and I just can’t believe anyone wants to read about that kind of stuff. But what I will do, is if we come out of a meeting and have some information on an injury, I might share that, or some information of behind the scenes. My wife always tell me that people love the behind the scenes stuff, that they want to see what happens behind the curtain so to speak. And also, if I speak with a scout, I might share some of that information. I’ve been fortunate to build up a pretty good series of relationships with scouts both in the NFL and NBA, and they are such a great source of information. They’re not really gossipers, but they just always have their ear to the ground, and know what’s circling around the league, so whenever I can, I try and check in with them. And that’s the kind of thing I would share on Twitter.
MM: Okay, I wanted to ask you a few questions about the playoffs. You’ve seen Amar’e Stoudemire quite a bit over his career and in the last few weeks. To me, since the All-Star break, and really since the trade deadline, he’s been a different player, almost back to where he was in 06 and 07, and he just seems to have a different attitude. Do you get that sense, having watched him and spoken with him?
KH: Absolutely. I think he might be the MVP of the league since the All-Star break. He’s doing all the things that he’s been criticized for not doing, like rebounding, and defending, and getting back at both ends. I think a lot of it is that he’s back in shape. You know, after that eye injury, it was months and months for him to recover with limited activity. It was s pretty significant period of downtime, and that takes some time to recover from.
The other thing is he’s a young kid that’s gone through a lot. You know for someone with his personal life, whose father died when he was young, and whose mother was in and out of prison, for being in that situation, he hasn’t gotten into a lot of trouble. He’s definitely matured. And I think this team wants to see him succeed, and to end his career there. I think they’re asking themselves this season, can this guy be someone we depend on down the line.
I think part of it is he’s buying into this being home for him. It’s a confluence of all those story lines. And scouts and coaches will tell you, when he’s involved mentally, his offense will open up. I think there are basketball reasons as well. They needed shooters to open up things for him, and they’ve gotten that. Especially with Channing Frye. They shot 41% from three this year, second for a record as a team. I think with Robin Lopez developing, that takes away some of the attention for him and gets him more space. But I think it’s exciting to see him playing like this. You know he can re-sign there, or he can do a sign-and-trade, or go elsewhere and I think that’s part of this as well.
MM: One thing I’ve noticed from interviews is that the Suns seem to not have the same kind of expectations they’ve had for years during the height of their run in the mid-2000′s with Marion. I almost feel like they’re playing better without expectations. Do you get that sense, and do you think they’ll think to themselves now, “Hey, we have a real shot at winning a championship, especially with the Lakers being vulnerable?”
KH: You know, back at the start of the season, Nash said the key for them is to stay humble. And then they started off hot, and then hit a slide. Then right after the start of the year, they spun their season around with a win over Dallas, and since that they’ve really turned it around. They had a phenomenal close to the regular season. They beat Denver who was playing for a division title, and then turned around and went to Utah the next night, a very hard place to win, and shredded them. And Utah was also playing with a chance for a division title!
They’re coming into the playoffs as good as any team in the league. Nash looks rested, he played the fewest minutes he has in years. Dragic if playing at the top of his game. They’ve managed to stay healthy, which is huge. And Jason Richardson, who is really a barometer for that club, is really playing very steadily. They’re more of a defensive group than they have been, and they have a bench. And that’s really Alvin Gentry’s calling card, is the development of their bench.
MM: So about Portland… have they got any chance without Roy?
KH: Well, you know, they’re used to playing without superstars. They lost Przybilla, and they lost Oden. Now they lose Roy, and he’s their leader in points and second leader in assists. So they lose a lot with him. But they’ve got better play from point guard with Andre Miller, LaMarcus Aldridge has really developed, and Camby has been a Godsend for them. They had all this guard depth, and then they lost their bigs, so they used that depth to trade for Camby and that’s how they’ve stayed above water. Camby has just been gigantic for them on and off the floor.
One thing people around the league will tell you is the veterans they’ve brought in, Camby, Juwan Howard, they’ve been so good at leadership, and tutoring, and professionalism. And with all that they’ve got a balanced coach in Nate McMillan who has weathered the storm. Camby gives them a chance, but without Roy? It’ll be tough. We’ll see.
MM: Last question, Who’s the one team you think is being overlooked in the playoffs right now?
KH: Well, I think everyone was so hung up on the Lakers early on, that they really ignored what’s happened with them. To me, the Lakers are as vulnerable as anyone headed into the playoffs. Kobe when I saw him had almost no lift on his jumper, the finger’s still bothering him…
MM: Yeah, I read today that they’re considering taking the splint off, which is interesting.
KH: Have they? I’ve got that game on Tuesday so we’ll be digging into all that stuff. But you know Bynum’s still a question mark, they don’t know if he’ll be available. And that kid has just had so many problems with staying healthy. Fisher’s really struggling. He just gets physically spent, or out-quicked. Westbrook’s going to give him a time in this series. I’d expect a lot of Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown. And they’ve been so uneven, it’s very un-Phil-Jackson like.Their bench is also a major problem.
Meanwhile, Dallas has just steadily built in, and they’re finally on the same page. They would be a team I’d watch. But if the Lakers go down, and I’m not saying they will in the first round, it wouldn’t be that surprising at this point. Bynum’s such a huge issue for them. If he comes back, then Lamar goes back to the bench, and that kind of creates a bench for them. But even then, they’ll want to ease Bynum in, playing him maybe 15 minutes here and there, because you know, they’ve got their eye on the Finals. That’s when they want him healthy. But with the West being so tough, so many teams within so few games of each other, you know, outside of a 1 versus 8, I don’t see any surprises coming from the lower seed winning any of the first round series in the West. The West is going to be something to watch this year.
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I came away stunned at how Harlan, who manages working for three entities covering three sports, can have such an intimate knowledge of the game, all while having a family he’s devoted to and all the other things he’s involved in. I guess that’s what makes him Kevin Harlan.
Again, my thanks to Kevin for his time and graciousness in answering my questions, and to Turner Sports for their help with conducting this interview. You can follow Harlan on Twitter. He begins his NBA Playoff coverage Sunday night for the Portland Trailblazers meeting the Phoenix Suns in Game 1, then next week will cover Thunder-Lakers games 2 and 3 in LA and OKC, respectively.
The Celtics are a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a conundrum wrapped in a knee brace.
No one thinks this team has a shot at making the Finals — and rightfully so. Personally, I would be shocked if Boston even made the Eastern Conference Finals. They’re old. They’re slow. They’re inconsistent. They’re cavalier. (And, not in an amazing, LeBron Jamesian way or even a crazy, fantastical Delonte West way either). Most importantly, they simply have not been playing good basketball for the last two-thirds of the season. (They’re a Chicago Bulls-like 27-27 during their past 54 games.)
We know all this.
Still, they are better than most people think. And it’s almost entirely because of the defense. You just can’t get a 5th ranked defense by accident. The schemes, the commitment and — yes, even in 2010 — the personnel got it done this year. Kevin Pelton rightly points out that KG can still play some defense. He may overstate the case a little, and few people have made more jokes about KG’s gimpy knee than I have, but the reports of The Kid’s death have been greatly exaggerated. You look at photos like this and think back to the infamous Saturday afternoon when he allowed Al Harrington to look like Bernard King in MSG, and it’s easy to dismiss all the good stuff Garnett does out there even while less fleet-of-foot than ever. This isn’t 2004, sure, but particularly with Kendrick Perkins standing next to him, KG can anchor very good defense.
And he has done exactly that this year.
Outside of Rondo for the first 45 minutes and Pierce for the last 3, there isn’t much about Boston’s offense that should terrify anyone. Ray Allen is finally shooting like Ray Allen again (40.3% from three since the All-Star Break compared to 33.8% prior) and KG, even on one leg, can still make the mid-range jumper, but, if you’re Miami — especially if you’re Miami — or any other team, figuring out how to stop the Celtics isn’t the biggest hurdle to exposing Boston’s geriatric mediocrity.
The challenge is figuring out how to score on them. And that’s not something Miami does particularly well. (They’re 19th in offensive rating and 15th in effective field goal percentage). Flash is Flash, and he’s as much of a rock as anyone we have in this league (and I’d still argue that he is underrated), so he’ll obviously get his. But the key for Miami won’t be hoping Dwyane pours in a few 43-point nights and jumps on the scorer’s table and tells his fans whose house it is. Whether or not the Heat can advance depends more on consistent production from everyone else. They need points from the guys Charles Barkley calls “a bunch of Tito Jacksons.”
Can Beasley, aka the East Coast Lamar Odom Sans All the Versatility, show up to play two games in a row? Can JO do more than just protect the paint? Will Carlos Arroyo keep playing the point well enough to let Wade play off the ball? Will Udonis get the minutes he deserves? Will Q and Chalmers hit their open threes? Can Dorell Wright finally translate his scoring ability into enough a playoff success to actually make me remember whether or not his name has two Rs or two Ls without fact-checking? (/googles dorrell wright)
I know that asking a bunch of obvious questions is a lame way to try to provide insight into this series, but I honestly have no idea if any of those things will happen. I don’t think anyone does, frankly. Not Eric Spoelstra. Not Pat Riley. Definitely not Dwyane Wade. Anyone who tells you different is either a liar or someone who somehow got a hold of the Gray’s Sports Almanac Biff brought back from the future.
But there are a few things we do know: (1) The Heat will play high-level defense, (2) The Celtics will play high-level defense, (3) Boston will execute well enough late in games and get enough big buckets out of Pierce, Rondo, Ray and maybe even KG to grab a win or two, (4) Dwyane Wade’s parents are not strong spellers.
The only thing left that we’re really not sure about is whether or not the Heat, who have won 9 of their last 10 games and an ungodly 18 of their last 22, will score enough to ensure that that late-season run continues.
Oh, sure, they met last year. But no one really seems to remember it, like it was just wiped from our memories like Sun’s English. But throw out the season finale’s Manu-Duncan-Parker-less game, and the Mavs are still 9-2 against the Spurs lately. That’s pretty damn good. The Spurs have been so brilliant over the last decade it’s easy to forget that only three teams have eliminated them from postseason play in that timespan. The Los Angeles Lakers, the Phoenix Suns, WAY back in 99-00, and the Dallas Mavericks. The reason for this is the simple truth that Dallas’ core causes San Antonio fits. Much of the mid-00′s roster is gone, but most have also been upgraded. Shawn Marion, able to defend multiple positions and counter the Spurs’ rebounding grit with athleticism and savvy. Jason Kidd, somehow shooting better as he gets older, adding veteran knowledge and now the team flows around him. Roddy Beaubois, Brendan Haywood, Caron Butler, good, good, good.
What’s interesting is that Dirk Nowitzki feels like the big differential. But in the last two playoff series, here’s Dirk’s line. 91-177 (51%), 23.8 ppg, 11.3 rb, 2.5 assists, 1.25 steals, .5 blocks, 2.4 fouls. Here’s Duncan: 121-221 (54%), 27.08 ppg, 10.17 rb, 3.5 assists, .8 steals, 2.00 blocks (!), 3.25 fouls. So in reality, it’s not like Dirk has been some vanquisher.
In fact, looking at their last two playoff meetings, Josh Howard was actually the difference maker. Howard averaged 17.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.25 assists, and .83 steals against the Mavs in those two series. That’s a pretty significant line for Caron Butler or Shawn Marion to need to match. In wins, Howard dropped a line of 19,6, 1.5, and 1. The big differential in the 06 series was Devin Harris, who averaged 16 points in the Mavs’ four wins, and only 8 in their losses, without really contributing anything else.
The lesson here is that trying to figure out why the Mavs have had such success against the juggernaut is kind of tricky, but much of it is the Mavericks’ ability to create efficient shots. They tend to use ball movement and brute force to get to the middle. They’re not a tough team, by any stretch, but they can act like one.
Mano-A-Mano:
How about Jefferson versus Matrix? You’ve got RJ’s length and occasional ability to knock down and create shots versus Matrix’s all-over-the-place-ness. Marion could make life hell for Jefferson, or Jefferson could use some quickness in the post to create some mismatches. The ability for Dallas’ bigs to stay healthy and out of foul trouble plays heavily here. Marion can be a huge asset at the 3, but at the four, he’s going to have difficulty against Duncan who can still drop 35 easy. The Spurs need to drag Jefferson off multiple screens to make life hard for Marion. Jefferson’s been great off the cut this season, but takes that approach much less than he does an ISO set, which he hasn’t been good at. The Spurs need Jefferson to be the knife, not the hand wielding it.
Prediction:
The Mavs’ are hot, loaded, and filled with bacony goodness. I’d like the Spurs against any other team in the West, and I do mean ANY other team in the West, but this was a nightmare draw for them. SA puts up a fight, but injuries and a Dirk-o-rama puts the Spurs away in six.
When I watch players who are infinitely more athletic than I am play the game of basketball, sometimes I close my eyes and wonder what it’d be like, if just for a day, I had their ability. I don’t imagine myself incarnating Kobe Bryant or Lebron James like the 12-year-old Josh Baskin once did Tom Hanks. Instead, I wish their skill sets would inhabit my 5’ 10”, 165 pound body. Give me the first step of Dwyane Wade or Tony Parker’s incredible ability to finish at the rim and to keep me from playing, you’d have to peel me from the blacktop.
There’s one player who sits near the top of my wish list who probably doesn’t belong with the rest. He’s no household name, has no sneaker deal and was likely never asked to appear in a Gatorade commercial. He’s not a superstar, has never been named to an all-star game or even averaged 13 points per game. Forget about guessing who it is. Not only does he come off the bench, but his name won’t be listed by any credentialed beat writer as a serious sixth man candidate. The player? Give up? The one…the only…Delonte West!
I view and admire his skills on a regular basis as having the complete game I’d like to show off in a Rec League. The way he attacks the basket with a rare, ferocious toughness. The way he never backs down on defense and single handedly (pardons to Paul Pierce) seems to be revitalizing the mid-range jump shot.
Right now his usage percentage is the highest its ever been as a Cavalier. He upped his numbers in points, rebounds and assists from the regular season to the playoffs last year and despite a sad, ongoing struggle with a bi-polar disorder, is widely regarded by those who play and travel with him as an amiable character.
So what else is to like? First off he’s left-handed. Depending on what your take is on south paws, whether you think their awkward looking or seamlessly smooth, I’ve always found it harder to guard a quick lefty. He’s both instant offense and rugged defensively. His range stretches to the three-point line—crucial on a team that possesses Lebron—but he seems to prefer pulling up off the dribble, for that lethal yet dieing art form.
In the first sentence of West’s 2010 Basketball Prospectus profile, the former St. Joseph’s standout is said to be lacking at greatness in any one particular skill, “but good, or at least average, in virtually every facet of the game”. It’s an incredibly apt description for an underdog who’s been able to carve a personal niche among the best players in the world. His handle is superb, able to direct the ball between his legs in a way that isn’t flashy, but useful and with purpose.
According to HoopData.com, West is one of three players on Cleveland who have a higher field goal percentage from 16-23 feet than the percentage assisted on those attempts, meaning he’s more than capable of scoring and creating offensive opportunities on his own from the perimeter. The other two are Lebron James and Mo Williams. Between 10-15 feet, only Shaq has a lower percentage on assisted field goals.
He’s self-effacing on one of the leagues most flamboyant teams and lacks any sort of off the court need for attention all the while being loved by his teammates. Earlier this season, Lebron said West was the funniest guy in Cleveland’s locker room (on a Shaquille O’Neal team none the less).
Delonte West plays the same position as Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Brandon Roy and Joe Johnson. At barely 6’ 3” and 180 pounds, when he goes up against those guys it’s like he’s entering the Indy 500 with a lawnmower.
I first caught him when he was in college, but was far more impressed with Jameer Nelson to pay any real attention. Then he was drafted by my Boston Celtics and became a member of a franchise that stood mired in decrepit disappointment. If he wasn’t the answer, then he was apart of the problem, and thus I ignored his abilities.
Now, irony is biting my behind. West is in Cleveland and should face off against the Celtics in what will surely be a hard fought, no love lost, seven-game battle in the second round. He’s someone who plays the game with passion, skill and a fearless demeanor no true fan could afford to disparage.
In last week’s post, using regression analysis I looked some of the players who get blocked more than they should given how they often they get to the rim for their shots. I also flipped it around and looked at who avoids the block while also taking into account how often they get to the rim.
We can look at another part of the game that often gets overlooked: the And-1. Most NBA websites don’t track how often a player gets an And-1 but Hoopdata tracks every single And-1 that has occurred since 2006-07. To clarify, the And-1 that Hoopdata presents does not require the bonus free throw to be made for it to be classified as an And-1. Dwight Howard and Shaquille O’Neal should be very thankful.
So why should we care about And-1s? With And-1 numbers, we can find the strongest finishers in the game. It takes a guy who can withstand hard contact and use his strength to convert the basket. Additionally, it takes not only strength but a strong vertical to buy time to redirect an altered shot. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the And-1 leaders as measured by And-1 percentage (And1%) which is simply percentage of total FGA that end in an And-1 (20 minutes per game, 20 games required).
I’ll note that the Hoopdata dataset has kept each stat line for traded players so Brendan Haywood’s And1% above covers only his time in Washington. Given Dwight Howard’s superhuman athleticism and strength, it should come as no surprise that he gets And-1s more often than any other player. This list features mostly large centers (Haywood, Oden, and Shaquille O’Neal) as well as some more athletic bigs (Smith, Stoudemire, and Varejao). I’m surprised by Varejao’s ranking on this list but he has a way with selling contact to the referees.
How about the players who get the least And-1s?
Yup, Jarvis Hayes has yet to get an And-1 this season in over a thousand minutes of playing time. Steve Blake has accumulated just two this entire season. This ranking answers the question “Which regular gets And-1s the least often?” but I’m not satisfied with this Q&A. Why? These guys don’t take the ball to the rack. Ever. This might provide some good fodder for bar conversations (you’re welcome) but I’m more interested in taking this further.
Perhaps this is a more revealing question: Given how often a player gets to the rim, how often should he be getting And-1s?
It’s nearly impossible to consistently get And-1s on the perimeter so a player who strictly plays at the basket will automatically tally a few And-1s just by habitat. For example, does Brendan Haywood have a And-1 skill or does he simply shoot nothing but gimmes around the basket? In order to get closer to our quest, I drew up a scatter plot that charts And 1% and At Rim percentage (the percentage of a player’s shots taken at the basket).
Just like last week, we’re looking for players who separate themselves from the norm (as illustrated by the trendlines.) Steve Blake and Jarvis Hayes’ lack of And-1s can be directly attributed to the fact that they never shoot near the rim where they can draw contact. Likewise, they find themselves near the trendline.
The trendlines offer us the ability to derive an expected And-1 percentage (eAnd1%) through regression analysis. Given the position and appetite for at rim shots, how often should they get And-1s? Using this expected And-1 percentage, we can really find the strongest finishers and not just the ones who play near the hoop.
So I have gone ahead and sorted each player by their eAnd1% differential. First, the ones who beat the model’s predictions the most.
Well, it seems as though Dwight Howard doesn’t care for my adjustment; he still tops the list. As a center with 58.2 percent of his shots coming at the rim, we would expect that his And-1 percentage would be 4.3 percent but he’s nearly double the expectation. Actually a couple players double their expectations, one of which is unsurprisingly LeBron James. Perhaps the most surprising member of this ultra-exclusive club is Kevin Martin who in Sacramento posted an And-1% that one might expect for a big man. His And-1 rate is superb for a player who only took one fifth of his shots at the rim. In fact, 16 of Martin’s 37 makes at the rim in Sacramento earned him a shot from the charity stripe. Now in Houston, Martin is an extremely underrated finisher at the rim especially after considering his thin frame. Rockets fans must love having two of the toughest finishing guards in the game with Martin and Kyle Lowry in the backcourt. It’s also worth noting that Lowry was also acquired in a midseason trade executed by GM Daryl Morey last year.
Now that we have identified the strongest finishers, what about the softest ones? These guys get fewer And-1s than we would expect given their position and shot taste.
With the regression, the basket allergic guards who dominated the previous list have all disappeared. Instead, we have bigs who get fewer And-1s than we would expect. Is Shawn Marion the softest big in the game? Well, not exactly. Maybe it’s more appropriate to say he’s the softest big who still shoots at the rim. Plenty of bigs would rather sit on the perimeter than take it to the rim (I’m looking at you Channing Frye!). Nonetheless, Marion has the fifth highest blocked percentage among regular small forwards (7.8) and only takes 1.8 free throws per game. Not exactly a thunderous presence down low.
Elsewhere, it’s amazing to me that 6-6 Chuck Hayes has more And-1s this year than Samuel Dalembert despite getting guarded by the same personnel. If I were Hayes, I would remind Dalembert every time they play eachother, which unfortunately isn’t often.
As I mentioned in the last post, it might be a worth a look to add predictor variables to At Rim Pct. I could see height, free throw percentage, and assist percentage all being significant factors in predicting And-1 percentage. I’ll save that for a later time. For now, feel free to brag to your friends at the bar that not only do you know who draws the most And-1s, you also know the hardest and softest finishers in the game.
