The Grizzlies Are Being Dragged Back To The Precipice
First of all Heisley dodges the questions and makes no promises to lock himself into a Zach Randolph extension, despite the fact that Z-Bo is quickly becoming the most popular player in the Memphis Grizzlies short history. This move is clever because Heisley does have options — three 1st round picks in a PF/C heavy draft — that he can use to keep Randolph’s value below the maximum.
So why not run the same bluff with Rudy Gay? Because promising to match the money might actually drive down Rudy’s value — the exact opposite — because of the young scorer’s particular situation. A team, say the Knicks, won’t want to offer Rudy maximum money if it will be matched, because until Memphis responds a week later all that cap space is tied up. By threatening to match, as a bluff or not, Heisley has essentially bought himself time to negotiate with Rudy and the fanbase.
What do you do with Zach Randolph? I mean, honestly, what do you do with him? Has his play earned this season earned him an extension? It’s incredibly difficult to argue otherwise. A double-double machine, the emotional leader of the squad, the franchise’s first All-Star of this new core, and arguably the best player on the team (I’ll still maintain that’s Marc Gasol), how can you not think he deserves an extension?
But does his past lead to question marks? Absolutely. He turns 29 this year, which means he’s good for another three seasons at least, but is his worth high enough to swallow the inevitable increase that his extension would take as he gets older?
Then you’ve got the dreaded question of space. And I don’t mean his ass. The Grizzlies are on the books for only 14.9 million (HT: ShamSports) in 2011-2012, with Marc Gasol a post-CBA RFA. Same for Mike Conley. So they’ll be trying to lock up at least Gasol and potentially Conley if they decide that point guard doesn’t really matter in this league. Randolph’s making $17 million next year. As a 30 year old, what kind of money is he going to want, with a new CBA coming, with the Grizzlies needing to lock up Gasol (and Mayo the year after), and with the team working to re-sign Gay? They’re not going over the luxury tax. And they won’t know what the threshold is until after the CBA. It would be very dangerous to lock Randolph into a large extension without knowing the future of the CBA, and when doing so would threaten your ability to re-sign the players under 27.
SOV makes a brilliant point regarding Gay. Any team that makes a huge swing for Gay will automatically put a lock on their cap space, which limits their competitive flexibility with the unrestricted free agents. Minnesota might not care, since they won’t be targeting any of the major free agents, but the delay Heisley can put on other team’s offers means more time to get a reasonable deal for Gay in place. I’m also encouraged to hear him say Gay is not a franchise player. That’s a vital distinction that has to be considered for both sides before committing money.
The Grizzlies have made such strides in the last 12 months. They have to be very careful not to get dragged back to the edge of oblivion.
Oster-Tags: 2010 free agency, freeagencysummerofdoom, Memphis Grizzlies, Rudy Gay, zach randolph
