Archive - June, 2010

NBA HD: Winging it with Length

The NBA draft is approaching.  Prepare for the cliches and buzzwords.

Freakish.

Tremendous.  Upside.  Potential.

Ceiling.

Length.

You’ll hear that last one probably the most. Length. Why do we care about length?  Well, extra length gives players advantages within a variety of basketball actions; deflections, live rebounds, and getting shots off requires extension above the opponent, to name a few.

Today’s post looks into the length of this year’s crop and who has notably long or short arms for their height.  It would be amusing to think of it the other way around but we don’t. This guy has the arms of a 6’2″ guy but he’s 6’8″!  He’s a giant!

Before we dig in, let me first say that Jonathan Givony’s Draft Express is our best friend and our valuable resource around draft time.  You can get all sorts of historical player measurements there.  I should also mention that they just started publishing advanced stats for college basketball.  Amazing stuff happening at Draft Express.

Anyway, the first thing I did was calculate the proportional wingspan of a player relative to his height using the prospect measurements dating back to 2000.  I used a regression to predict wingspan from player height (WITHOUT shoes on) with a sample of 916 NBA prospects.

Here we see a pretty strong linear relationship between player height and wingspan.  Want to know what your NBA prospect wingspan should be? Take 98.5% of your height in inches and add about 5.5.  My wingspan should be about 76 inches long.

Who has the longest go-go gadget arms of players that actually got drafted? Let’s take a look.

Oh my, the stars!  Not a very inspiring list, eh? Jason Maxiell had the most “freakish” arms as he’s one of those guys who can touch his knees without bending over.  Fingertip to fingertip, he is 10 inches longer than head to toe.  All told, his wingspan is about six inches longer than we’d expect and proportional for a 6-9 guy.  His extra wingspan is partly responsible for his rebounding rate we’d typically see from a center.

The rest of the list has some big time busts who may or may not have been overrated by their length.  Saer Sene got drafted 10th overall, Fred Jones 14th overall, and Shelden Williams 5th.  As we saw in Game 6, freakishly long arms cannot guarantee a successfully converted dunk in the biggest game of your life (right, Shelden?).  Marvin Williams, the second overall pick in 2005, sits just outside this list as his wingspan was 4 inches longer than we’d expect.

Some other notable extra wingspans: LeBron +0.5″. Thabeet +0.6″.  Durant +3.3″.  Beaubois +4.0″.

Let’s head over to the short arm prospects or as I like to call them, the capital T’s (just look at a capital T).  These guys have shorter arms than we’d expect given their height.

Martynas Andriuskevicius played only 9 minutes in his NBA career, way back in 2005 but he deserves a shot out here.  His arms were over six inches shorter than we’d expect given his 7’1.25″ height.  In reality, he has the wingspan of a 6’6″ guy.  Yes, observant reader, Fred Jones has a longer wingspan than Marty Andy.  For your information, he grabbed four rebounds in 9 minutes which translates to a crisp 17.8 rebounds per 40 mins.  Sample size be damned.

We have some pure shooters (Redick, Kapono) as well as some truly undersized point guards (Maynor, Jordan).  Redick relies on his hops more than most shooters since he wasn’t gifted with long arms. He got away with it in college but he’s taking threes at a much slower rate in the NBA, granted, for several different reasons.  Perhaps one of them is that he has the arms of a 6-footer.

Some notable curbed wingspans: Jon Brockman -3.7″, Chris Kaman -4.1″, Stephen Curry -3.0″, Jared Dudley -3.2″

While we’re at it, let’s go ahead and pull up the go-go gadgets arms and T’s of this crop of 2010 prospects.  First, the long arms:

And the T’s:

Looks like I’ve snooped out the market inefficiency that Coach K has been exploiting for years.  Short armed scorers.

In the future, expect some application of these measurements to NBA production to test their significance in predicting professional success.

NBA Finals Lakers Celtics Game 6: The Lakers Transition Defense Is Here To Save The Daaaaaaaay!

In Game 5, the Lakers defense was, well, worthy of mockery. But in Game 6, they brought it, man to man, baseline to baseline. They were everywhere, swarming, contesting, and bringing an absurd amount of intensity to each possession.

All season long, one of the pillars of the Lakers’ defense has been their transition work. All that length and skill doesn’t mean much if you don’t work to get back and cut off easy baskets. And with the aggressive style the Celtics have employed that caught the Lakers off guard in Game 4 and 5, transition defense becomes even more important. In Game 6, the Lakers lived up to that responsibility. Via Synergy, we see that the Celtics had 14 transition plays in Game 6, only converting 4 of them, with a 28.6% scoring rate (compare that with 58.7% Scoring in Game 5 and 47.1% in Game 3).  Game 6 was a tour defense in every aspect of the game for the Lakers, but their transition defense really stood out, and speaks to their success that goes far beyond Kobe’s barrages or Pau Gasol’s offensive touches. Here’s a look at one such play they detonated.

With 3:40 to go in the third quarter, the Celtics are trying to somehow put together an effort to close the gap from 17 down to 12 or 10. The best way to do that is with transition buckets, obviously. Kobe misses from the elbow to start the possession.

You’ll notice Odom is in the left corner as the play begins. Artest and Bryant are already backpedaling to make sure there are defenders back. The first thing for the Lakers has always been manpower in transition defense. Simply be there and you’ll deter the transition attack half the time. This time, the rebound goes long and Rondo is off to the races.

Rondo’s got a great setup as this play develops. Ray Allen on his left, streaking to the perimeter wing. Paul Pierce coming up the right side, and he’s got a seam in between both defenders. It should be noted before we get any further, in Games 4 or 5, Odom would be checked out of this play already. He’s far behind the play and would have to really push to catch up.

Now, as well positioned as the Lakers defenders back are, the Celtics do their part to screw this play up. Rondo kicks it to Pierce on the cut way too early. He hasn’t driven to sucker in either Bryant or Artest, meaning Kobe’s got Allen covered and Artest is going to be able to force Pierce inside instead of Pierce shifting back right to the rim.

You’ll notice Lamar Odom is like the cavalry, catching up to Pierce as he starts to make his move. Crazy Pills is going into lockdown mode. Pierce fell into this trap several times in Game 6, forcing shots where he needed to give it up. Pierce is trying to be an alpha dog, which is good, but with how well he’s defended at this point, he needs to think about distributing. Then again, one of his teammates is chugalugging down the court trying to catch up with Gasol. He’s still got a good shot at this point of getting a shot up over Pierce. It’s Odom’s play that’s really going to detonate this.

Artest takes a swipe at the ball, and with position, Pierce has to move even further inward instead of towards the basket. Odom’s length allows him to catch up and he’s going to take away the interior angle as well. Say goodbye to that chance of drive and kicking to one of the best three point shooters on the planet, because that window’s about to close sharply.

Odom makes a great move, cutting off Pierce’s angle without risking body contact, and allowing Artest to close in on him. The Lakers’ length is a huge asset here, and it essentially blacks out any passing lane Pierce may have once he leaves his feet. Allen’s not an option, Davis for the kickout isn’t an option, even Rondo down low he can’t get to. Pierce is going to have to somehow get a shot up over one of the best defenders in the game and a big lanky freak o’ nature that’s got his head on straight. The result?

Yeah, that’s no good. Rondo’s going to try and get an offensive rebound, but Bryant is already forcing him baseline. Davis is still trying to get into the play, and Pierce is busy being swallowed alive like a star falling into a black hole.

The Celtics do manage to get quite a few guys low, but Pierces shot bounces straight off the backboard and goes long.

The Lakers are off to the races and the Celtics have blown another important scoring opportunity. If they keep this up in Game 7, that title is theirs.

NBA Finals Lakers Celtics Game 6: Kobe Bryant’s Legacy Is Forged In Steel Not Paper

Let’s say that the Celtics go on to win one of these final two games. Does that mean Paul Pierce – or Kevin Garnett – is better than Kobe Bryant? Does it mean they want it more? Of course not. All it means is that the 2010 Celtics were better than the 2010 Lakers for two weeks in June.

What if the Lakers win? After all, all they need to do is protect home court. This is what they played all season for. And in order to do that, they need more from Kobe’s alleged supporting cast. He can’t rebound for them, or hit free throws for them, or stop them from taking ill-advised threes. (Well, he could do that, but it would be unprecedented.) Either way, a team will win this Finals.

As for Kobe’s legacy, well, that’s already been determined in the hearts and minds of journalists and fans and Hall of Fame voters everywhere. Is it possible that these next 48 minutes negate the past 45,000? As Kobe himself, might say: No. Not at all.

via SLAM ONLINE | » Stakes Is High?.

A selection of brilliant takes on what tonight means for the Kobester, the Beanster, the Beanorama, the Mambamatic, the… I’ll stop. SLAM Online can sometimes be all over the place, but they do employ some terrific writers. The above was from Russ BengtsonI also liked Myles Brown from the same article:

From the moment he slid those sunglasses off and announced his decision to go pro, he was perceived as a spoon fed primadonna. From the moment he entered the league alongside a man who would turn the marketing model on its ear, his racial identity has been questioned. From the moment he dared to question the work ethic of an established, but complacent superstar and the authority of a well decorated, but manipulaitve coach, he’s been deemed too ambitious. And from the moment he exited that hotel room, he surrendered the benefit of the doubt.

A series of moments, spliced into his highlight reel and the collective consciousness, the effects of which have left us with the man who stands here today, jaw jutted and eyes narrowed. A man who pretends not to give a fuck what you think while making it quite evident that he plays for your approval. Such is the dichotomy of being Kobe Bryant. For there is a distinct difference between being the one in the history book and being the one who writes it.

I tend to agree with the consensus of the piece, which is that tonight changes nothing for Kobe Bryant.

Take Game 5, for example. When I wrote about Bryant’s little barrage hurting the Lakers, immediately there were cries (including some from Brown) that the idea was absurd. That’s how people are with Kobe. If the jumpshots, the impossible step-back threes, the fist pumps, the jaw juts, the unbelievable work ethic resulting in out of this world performances delight you, then you’re going to think Kobe did what he had to do and in no way can scoring 38 points, including 19 in a quarter and 21 straight hurt you. You’re going to think it was another example of his greatness. Likewise, if something about Colorado rankled you, as unfair as that may be, you probably see it as selfishness. If your bias is based off disliking the Lakers or a perceived arrogance (that I doubt anyone would deny) of Bryant’s, then you similarly probably think it’s another example of how he hurts his team with his style. It’s just how it is. With each game we are proven right or wrong, and then the next game happens. The tide has certainly begun to abide in the last few years. Four rings is four rings, after all, and an MVP and 81 points and then a ring and maybe another will do that. But the consequences of being polarizing are that neither side will really surrender their viewpoint because of how much they disagree with the other side.

The piece about Bryant brought that out. Those that think there’s no way that taking 9 of your team’s first ten shots in a quarter could hurt you will say so.  The big element I was trying to get across in the piece was that it was Jackson’s fault, not Bryant’s. That’s who Bryant is. And assuredly, if he’d kept it up or if the Lakers offense as a whole had just warmed back up after Bryant was done, it would have been a masterful performance for the ages. Things which were not under his control put that little outburst into context.  And we’ll see the same debates raged if a similar series of events go down tonight. If Bryant goes down swinging, he’ll have gone down his way, believing he is the best and the best way for his team to win is for him to take over. And his fans will love him for it, and if he loses, his detractors will deride him for it.

Bryant’s place in history is secured, regardless. Those (of us) that root against him may not like it, but it is what it is. His accuser settled, he obviously loves his daughters, his team did nothing against the rules to obtain the talent they have, and he’s consistently been a part of championship teams throughout his career. The rings speak for themselves, as much as I hate that argument (Adam Morrison may end up with two, for God’s sake).

If you want to know what tonight means, in any real sense? It speaks something of this particular Lakers team. Just days ago I crowned them as great, and they still are. I believe that you’re a great team if you make the Finals, no matter the result. Those early 00′s Jersey teams? Great. Iverson’s Sixers? Great. I have an appreciation for it because that means that they are, in their given year, the two best teams in all of organized basketball. To say they were not great is simply foolish in my opinion. Tonight won’t alter the fact that they’re great. It will alter the impression of the mentality of this team. Nothing can erase 2009. They are a championship team, and that’s all there is to it. But it will leave a mark on this team as mentally weak and some people will pass of 2009 due to the KG injury. It’s inevitable. I don’t think it’s fair (that Magic team was terrific; thanks Vince Carter, by the way). But it is what it is. And a failure tonight could combust a fairly sensitive group of athletic individuals. We saw in 2004 what can happen when you lose a Finals. It’s unlikely, given these personalities aren’t as bombastic, but you simply can’t predict the future. And the best way to stay together is to prove no change is needed.

That said, I still like Lakers in 7. I’ve come this far doubting Boston, I might as well finish the job. I’ve seen Staples be the ruin of too many teams, despite their home crowd being the least effectual of any team over a 5 seed. They have the talent. They have the ability. They don’t have the coaching, but they don’t really need it. They need a few things to go their way, and it has been my experience that that scenario usually works out pretty well for LA.

Bryant remakes nothing of his legacy tonight. But he does have an opportunity to extend it.

NBA Finals Lakers Celtics Game 5: “THE LAKERS DEFENSIVE IMPLOSION SHOW! STARRING LAMAR ODOM!”

When you give up a 109 defensive efficiency mark, several things have gone wrong in your team’s life. You presumably made the Finals by being good at defense, and certainly, that’s how the Lakers did it. In fact, despite how brilliant their offense can be when it’s moving and clicking and working and not just watching Kobe pull up and launch from 25 feet, the Lakers’ defense has been responsible for their top seed in the West and their romp through the Western Conference Finals.  And yet in Game 5, they suffered lapse after lapse. Some of it was little things, like the spacing you give Paul Pierce to avoid him getting baseline. Others were medium size things like positioning in transition and running off shooters. And then there were the massive, catastrophic failures that occurred as the game went on, like the one we’re going to look at today.

With 7:47 left in the fourth and the Celtics leading by 8, they set up in the halfcourt.  Fisher is already in “leghump” mode. Bynum is shadowing KG as the Celtics prepare to run the pick and roll.

Not two seconds later, things start to go badly.

All season the Lakers have done a great job of always maintaining presence down low. They have the length and athleticism to extend all the way out to the perimeter, but they are very rarely caught with their pants down. But by this point in the game, the Celtics have been peeling off mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper.  This problem is exacerbated by how far out KG sets the pick, all the way out at about 30 feet.  But as Pierce makes his move, Andrew Bynum, again playing on a bum leg, stays with him. The problem is that Lamar Odom is now the sole defender of the basket, and he’s a half-step from the free throw lane by that point, and Sheed’s doing nothing to settle him back, instead drifting further and further out. The reason is not to set up for an ill timed three, but to free up Allen and take advantage of the Lakers’ biggest defensive personnel weakness: Derek Fisher.

Pierce heads for just inside the top of the key, and is going to have his pick of options. He can drive, pull-up (which is obviously what he wants), or kick it back out.  Odom smartly comes to help out Bynum so that Pierce can’t get around him to the right side of the basket, cutting off his penetration angle and forcing him to hesitate which allows Bynum to close on him. Meanwhile, Sheed screens the living daylights out of Fisher, and Allen peels off. There is no one within a zipcode of the right underside of the basket, with Kobe locked up top  guarding Robinson and Artest recovering from KG’s screen at the perimeter. As all this is happening Odom now has three responsibilities. He’s got to help Fisher who is basically like Mario in the sandpits of Super Mario World 64. He has to keep an eye on Sheed for the kick out spot-up three, and he’s got to deter Pierce from driving. Any time you create a situation where Lamar Odom has to manage three mental operations at once, you may have set yourself up for disaster.

Pierce decides to test his chances and opts to pull-up for a jumper just inside the halo. Bynum uses the go-go gadget arms to contest, which is going to force Pierce to kick it back out when he realizes he is no longer 25 and his vertical now puts him squarely in the shadow of Bynum’s arm. Meanwhile, Allen has peeled off of Fisher, who is still struggling to get around Sheed as Sheed has him locked up completely. Lamar Odom? I have no idea what he’s doing. None. No clue.  I like to think he’s guarding Space Ghost, who is taunting him.

As Pierce kicks it back out, Ray’s eyes go wide as he sees what’s happening, and moves to swoop underneath.

Robinson peels off from the corner using KG as a mild screen and gets Pierce’s bailout. Bynum is all the way above the free throw line after contesting, Kobe’s trying to cover with Ron on KG to prevent the pick and pop. Fisher has FINALLY cleared the screen and now sees what’s about to happen. Here’s where the real disaster comes into play. Either Odom should know that Allen coming low is his responsibility, or Fisher is failing to alert Odom to that fact. Either way, a “heads up, Ray’s coming” from Fisher probably would have been useful. As it is, Odom never turns his head in either direction to even acknowledge the presence of Allen. Rasheed Wallace is done for this play. Because Kobe’s having to help Artest with KG, and Odom is apparently caught between trying to decide whether he should stay low or go chase Wallace to prevent the three, a passing lane opens up right from Robinson down to the left side of the basket.

This is the moment where there is still hope. It is fleeting, and it is cruel. The clock’s winding down, Kobe has recovered on Nate, Bynum is still covering Pierce, and Artest has KG handled. The bad news? Look where Odom and Fisher are. Fisher, instead of sprinting to recover on Ray, has held up, apparently trying to prevent Sheed’s three. Which is exactly what Odom’s doing as well. Odom actually moves laterally left, away from the basket and where Ray is headed, and now the two are close enough to fist bump one another. Which means that all alone, under the basket, in a pivotal Game 5 of the NBA Finals, the 9 time NBA All-Star, NBA champion shooting guard is just hanging out. Robinson dukes the pass over Kobe’s head, and Allen gets an easy two.

And the aftermath is really the best part.

Kobe just watches in total disgust. Odom actually tries to get back in time, and nearly fouls Allen. Ron Artest looks like my dog after a dog barks on the television, alert, but confused. Fisher is about to have the “Which one of us screwed up, oh, wait, I’m the crafty veteran, it’s your fault” conversation. And my personal favorite? Andrew Bynum literally does the Jake Delhomme Horsefeathers reaction.

And that’s how a defense implodes. It was a series of unfortunate events, but it does highlight several of the things that went wrong for the Lakers’ defense in Game 5.

NBA Finals: Kevin Garnett Redemption, Part 2

The jokes all are out there.

Whenever Kevin Garnett jumps up to grab a rebound or dunks a basketball or soars as only a 45,000-minute, 34-year old power forward can, you’re bound to hear jokes about the knee. And it’s somewhat understandable. He missed the most important stretches of last season, including all of the playoffs, and then slowly worked his way back from the injury. It would be more understandable or accepted if we actually knew what the injury was too.

At the time, it seemed to be more of a mystery than the continuum transfunctioner, in that its mystery was only exceeded by the impact it had on the team. People were making up ligaments that nobody has ever heard of and said they were torn. People seemed to think that he had a break in his kneecap or a family of birds nesting inside it and their feedings were causing the discomfort. Whatever the problem was, it stopped them from being able to defend their title.

Now, as the playoffs have begun and we’ve narrowed it down to the final two games (one if necessary) left on the NBA’s schedule, we see that Kevin Garnett’s impact is far greater than we ever assumed. When he was ripped from the hands of T’Wolves fans and shown the greener grass on the other side, everyone kind of assumed this was a championship team. Ray Allen had just been added, Paul Pierce was still a very good player and they were adding the Eddie House-James Posey veteran combo to round out the bench.

But KG was the driving force behind it all. Tom Thibodeau dispersed his defensive schemes for Kevin Garnett to orchestrate. Garnett played the defensive end of the court as good as any middle linebacker or safety had ever done in the NFL. He called out screens, adjustments, and helped on just about everything. The result was one of the best team defensive efforts we’ve seen in a long time and an NBA championship that had eluded so many players on the roster.

Fast forward two years later and the Celtics are still relying on him to be the leader in more ways than people assume he’s capable of doing. Yes, Rajon Rondo has been the best player on the Celtics this season. Yes, Ray Allen’s shooting is probably the biggest threat to opposing defenses at any given time and Paul Pierce still tends to be the most reliable scorer Boston has. However, Kevin Garnett is still the straw that stirs the championship drink.

This is a time of redemption for Kevin Garnett. For years he had the unfair label of being a guy that didn’t want the ball in big moments, which wasn’t all that true. He passed out of double and triple teams in big moments and unfortunately let his fate rest in the hands of Wally Szczerbiak, Troy Hudson and Stephon Marbury’s atrocious series against the Sonics in 1998. He took plenty of shots that went in and plenty of shots that missed horribly. He tried to drag a horrendous franchise with a subpar roster through playoff series against much better teams and failed. It wasn’t until his peak as an NBA player in the 2003-2004 season (when he finally had some veteran help with Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell) that he broke through.

But each time he seemed to get to the next level, success escaped him. Whenever he seemed to be ready for greatness, something was holding him back. It seems short-sided to call a guy a failure when he put up career playoff numbers in Minnesota that read 22.3 points, 13.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.9 blocks and 1.3 steals per game with 45.8% shooting from the field. His biggest problem was that he was never quite Tim Duncan (but who is?) and he had a horrible supporting cast.

Now with Boston, he’s been saddled with the image of being an a-hole that starts skirmishes he has no intention of finishing. He’s a trash-talker out of control. He’s a washed-up, broken-down old guy that can’t hang with the better big men in today’s game. Maybe a lot of those criticisms hold some water but the last one is still completely false.

Kevin Garnett is still a force to be reckoned with. He’s not the walking historical benchmark of 20-10-5 that he used to be but he still matters. The knee for the most part is fine. It took him quite a while to recover over the past year and a half but he still has more than enough agility to get an alley-oop or two per game and to challenge shots inside. Most importantly though, Kevin Garnett has his lateral movement back and that’s why he’s been so effective in these playoffs.

First, let’s take a look at the numbers from the 2008, 2009 and 2010 playoffs for the Boston Celtics and their opponents:

Playoffs Pace Points Reb (Off) TO% FG% 3P% DRtg
BOS ‘08 85.9 94.0 40.0 (11.1) 12.9% 44.7% 35.9% 103.3
OPP ‘08 88.8 36.3 (9.8) 14.4% 42.6% 32.9% 109.4
BOS ‘09 91.4 102.1 43.2 (10.9) 12.5% 44.5% 36.0% 106.3
OPP ‘09 102.1 41.6 (9.2) 13.3% 44.6% 36.0% 106.3
BOS ‘10 89.6 95.8 39.1 (8.8) 13.7% 46.1% 37.2% 101.8
OPP ‘10 91.6 38.5 (9.6) 15.5% 43.8% 32.1% 106.4

With the presence of Garnett, the Celtics are simply a better defensive team. I realize I didn’t just re-slice bread for the first time with that statement. However, you can see just how big of a difference KG makes by being in the lineup and playing defensive quarterback.

The biggest way in which KG makes the Celtics a better defensive team is that he can still defend the pick-and-roll better than just about anybody. It’s not just the fact that he hedges the picks well. It’s not the fact that he’s proving the health of his knee by recovering well to the player rolling to the basket or popping to the elbow. He also plays incredible help defense away from pick-and-rolls. With the way he’s covering ground right now, the Celtics are able to recover quickly on shooters and challenge a lot of jumpers.

KG learned a long time ago how to play illegal defense without getting caught when he was in the barely legal defensive schemes of Flip Saunders. It’s something he wasn’t very good at earlier in the season when he was still trying to get back into game shape. With the knee injury, his lateral movement was stagnant and his mobility made him look like he needed a Hover Round on defensive rotations. Now, he’s back to covering ground.

Maybe he’s not able to fly through the air anymore and he has to conserve his explosions from the hardwood to the sky. But if he’s still able to cut off players going to the basket, bark out orders at his teammates and make the occasional key basket (all of Game Three, key free throws in Game Four, fourth quarter jumper in Game Five that ignited 6-0 run to push lead back to double digits) then he’s once again bucked the criticism of his career.

Kevin Garnett is never going to be the best power forward of all-time. But he’s got this redemption thing down pat. He wasn’t a winner and he’s now on the verge of winning his second title in three years as a big-time contributor and leader. He wasn’t going to be healthy enough to contribute to a team that had no chance at a title and now he’s 48 minutes away from leading this team defensively once again.

Once again, the joke is on the critics – not KG.

NBA Finals Lakers Celtics Game 5: You Have Run Out Of Extra Lives, Laker Cat

The most bizarre thing about Game 5? In a game filled with more Ron Artest aimless dribbling, with every conceivable sequence alive, including this one?

The most bizarre thing is that it took this long for this result to occur. It took us until Game 5 to have the Celtics Big 3 vs. the Kobe show.  And the result is something we should have seen coming, because if Bryant’s going that route, with this team, it means something’s gone wrong. This team should not have to rely on Bryant scoring 35+. They should rely on Bryant scoring 25+, adding 7+ assists, getting rebounds, and working in the flow of the offense. Hell, go ahead and take 25+ attempts, but do it in the flow of the offense with everyone running and working, not with you getting the ball at the key, making a move and then pulling up.  The offense needs rhythm.

As Dwyer said in an especially good Behind the Boxscore:

After a Gasol fumble started the third quarter off on the wrong foot, Bryant more or less started going one-on-one, and the result was an astonishing 19-point display in the quarter. Nailing tough jumper after tough jumper, Bryant clearly had the touch going, but at what price?

Because the Lakers, before long, had absolutely no rhythm. The team’s entire offense had dwindled down to watching one man toss in impossible 19-footers, and little else. No Celtic was bothering to trap the screen and roll too hard, because Bryant wasn’t even looking for his screener for a pass. And when Bryant eventually tailed off (he shot 2-6 in the fourth quarter), the Lakers’ offense was dead in the water, because he and his team had built no rhythm.

Bear in mind that the Laker offense, more than any offense in the NBA, relies on rhythm and quick decision and fluid ball movement to survive. And when one player goes away from that movement, it’s usually in the fourth quarter, and not the third. And if Bryant is going to make this all about himself on the second possession of the third quarter? He better be ready to drop 55, because that’s going to be what it takes to win, because he’ll have to answer every Celtic bucket with one of his own.

And the Celtics got buckets. Boy did they get buckets. A 109 efficiency clip. They had it from everywhere. So much so that I’d actually warn a bit of temperance for how much this win means. Bear in mind that Boston simply isn’t going to shoot like that again. Yes, the Lakers’ horrific defense played a significant part (we’ll get to that in a bit in a later post), but that Laker defense melted down the stretch because of those little demons that rest on their shoulders. What got the Celtics to the pushing point was their ability to nail mid-range jump shots, the invincibility star of NBA basketball. When those shots are falling, the defense gets frustrated, confused, and generally out of whack. After all, what do you do when you force your opponent to do exactly what you want him to do and he keeps hitting them like it’s freaking SkeeBall? That mid-range jumper game is nothing but pixie dust when it’s going. And ask Paul Pierce how it’s going, courtesy of the NBA Playbook:

Mmmm. That’s good midrange.

At the same time, those are the shots a defense wants you to take for a reason. And they’re much less likely to fall in Staples than they were to fall in the garden. This thing isn’t over, not by a long shot. The Celtics have gotten two wins from 1. a huge outburst from Glen Davis and Nate Robinson and 2. an insanely hot shooting night where the entire Laker offens collapsed in on itself like a flan in a cupboard with Kobe the only toothpick holding it up.

Of course, this wouldn’t have been possible without Ron Artest. You know, Crazy Pills, Snake Eggs, redeemed, reborn Ron Artest (though perhaps Rob’s discussion of him as “necessary” is even more apt now). People are confused by my Twitter pleadings with Ron to keep shooting, thinking I just want the Laker offense to fail. Not so. I am simply overjoyed with watching Artest and joining everyone in the world who is watching the game wondering “What the hell is he thinking?!” and not just in an outraged way, but a true sense of bewilderment. There’s simply no accounting for what Artest will do in a possession, and it’s downright gleeful from a pure mirth approach. After months of a responsible, dedicated Artest, it’s so nice to see him back to his true self. He doesn’t deserve to be locked up within the confines of reason. FREE YOURSELF, RON! YOU ARE CRAZY PILLS! BE PROUD OF THAT!

Garnett deserves some run, here.

EL TIGRE MONSTRUOSO HAS RETURNED TO EAT YOUR CHILDREN!

No player accurately describes the turnaround in momentum for the Celtics than Garnett. After such a horrific start to the series, being owned outright by Gasol, he’s improved every game. First it was just the defense, then it was a few mid-range jumpers, and then last night, a detonation. 18 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 5 steals, 2 blocks SWEET BEJESUS WHAT A LINE.

You want an excellent example of how KG’s improving mobility has helped in this series? Check out where he leaped from the in the 1st quarter for an up an under between two players on the pick and roll last night:

That’s quite a bit further away from the bunny hops he was clearing in Games 1 and 2.  After that at the 5:41 mark, Garnett takes Gasol to the middle, drifts a step back to create space and nails a jump hook, with Bynum coming over to try and swat it. KG gets it just up over, but doesn’t float it, sinking it straight down after the intial release, which is high. The rest of the game was a flurry of jumpers after a third quarter layup once the Lakers started playing Super Smash Brothers in their head.

Garnett was fierce, and wasn’t running his mouth to a degree where it was distracting (I’m sure he was still running his mouth). He executed, consistently and without hesitation. He was slapping the ball every time he received it in the post, and then immediately making his move. He decided not to be afraid of Gasol’s length and then used it against him. The one-handed falling thing with 5:06 in the 3rd was something beyond belief, a little bit of luck, but also a lot of what made Garnett so good throughout his career.

There’s so much that has to go right for the Celtics to win this series, but they’re making them happen. Bit by bit. The Lakers’ series seems to be eroding. Then again, isn’t this the perfect scenario to get comfy at home and push to a seventh game?

Briefly: Lakers Celtics Game 5 coverage at PBT

Just in case you’re not subscribing (which you should be):

The post in which I try and argue that you shouldn’t blame Kobe for being Kobe, but that being Kobe was still a bad thing. This one’s gotten the most attention, naturally, since if you say anything bad about Kobe Bryant you’re besieged by his fans as if you had offended their God, and also because the idea of criticizing the play of Bryant when he drops 38 seems ludicrous. It’s important to note that A. I’m not blaming Bryant, I’m blaming Jackson and B. I’m not saying that this was the biggest reason the Lakers lost. Their horrible, horrible, horrible defense was the biggest reason. But glossing over the impact of one dude taking over 50% of the shots in a quarter, and 100% for a six minute span is just not something I can do. Again, Bryant did the right thing. Thought he could score, had license to score, should have tried to score. It’s Jackson’s responsibility to shepherd the entire offense.

Blogbook, in which I try and touch on what the Celtics did well, instead of just what the Lakers did done wrong. That’s been a running theme, because honestly, if you watch the games, you come away thinking that if LA can do what they do, they’ll still win because of their advantages in size and talent. But then, Boston’s continually preventing them from being able to do that. I think that’s called “defense.”

We’ll have more on KG, Allen, and Crazy Pills (HOW ABOUT THAT FOR REDEMPTION, MAHONEY?!) and more tomorrow. My Lakers in Six prediction is dead, but I’m not abandoning ship yet. Lakers in 7, but I’m not feeling good about it.

Moving Pictures: Safely Under the Radar

Ray Allen’s record-setting shooting performance in Game 2 was beyond impressive, but Kobe Bryant’s showing in Game 4 wasn’t too bad, either. A bucket of turnovers and two triples (Kobe only made six to Ray’s eight) separate Allen and Bryant’s shooting exhibitions, but a look at the stat sheet alone ignores the brilliance that came with the difficulty of Kobe’s shots. He wasn’t catching and shooting wide open attempts, but attacking off the dribble, pulling up in the face of a defender, and hitting from all over. In this installment of Moving Pictures, we’ll take a look at just how difficult some of Kobe’s attempts were, particularly in contrast to Ray’s threes in Game 2.

You can view previous installments of Moving Pictures at The Two Man Game.

NBA Finals: Celtics Need To Attack The Lakers Bigs With Rabies

“You should attack their big man like you’re trying to give him rabies.”

Earlier in our season (did you forget I coach JV high school basketball?), we faced a team that built their offense and defense around one of the lankiest 15-year olds you could ever see. He wasn’t abnormally tall by any means. He was about 6’3”, which is sort of incredibly tall for a 15-year old, but it’s not like he was Manute Bol out there. For the sake of the story and keeping anonymity, we’ll call this player Seal.

We’re going to call him Seal for a couple of reasons. First, he sort of looked like Seal without all of that facial scarring. Second, it gives me a tangential opening to mention that I was in Chicago last weekend and in Chicago I got to sing Kiss From A Rose with Trey Kerby while driving around. It was pretty great.

Anyway, Seal was a very sound, fundamental defender against our team. His arm length was almost cartoonish and he used it to perfectly defend a lot of shots coming into the painted area. He rarely went for the pump fakes, he kept his arms high in the air to intimidate our players and he timed every passive aggressive shot taken around him perfectly. He blocked at least nine shots in the first half of the game, as our guys were scared to challenge him.

And he wasn’t just protecting the rim well either. He kept the ball high on offense and put it up only when the shot was there. He also controlled the boards against our guys. It sounds simple but he just jumped as high as he could and secured the ball. He didn’t tap it all over the place before grabbing it. He just grabbed it.

At halftime, we ripped into our guys for being afraid of Seal. Our big men were better than him and we all knew it. They were just playing scared. And by being scared of his length and shot-blocking ability, they allowed him to dictate everything inside. I told our team the same quote that sits atop this post. Attack Seal like you’re trying to give him rabies. Be the more aggressive dog in the fight. It actually took the smallest player on our team to turn things around.

He gave up more than a foot in height to Seal but he had no fear. He went right at Seal on the first couple possessions of the second half and perfectly used his floater to protect shots. He jumped into him to create contact and knock him back a little. He gave Seal a different look than what he had seen all game long – aggressiveness. This aggressiveness not only showed the team that getting your shot blocked was nothing to be afraid of, it also got Seal out of position inside. All of a sudden we were grabbing rebounds and getting putbacks inside. Seal had to reach over our players to protect his rim and he was getting into foul trouble the other team couldn’t afford to have him in.

By the end of the game, Seal was on the bench with about 16 blocked shots and five fouls. He fouled out because we attacked him with purpose. We ended up dominating the boards in the second half because we didn’t allow him to control everything. It was an easy win with a good lesson to our guys that they shouldn’t let the other team’s big man control the interior.

When I look at this Celtics-Lakers Finals so far, the overall message rings true throughout. Now there are a couple of differences. I don’t think the Celtics are afraid of the length inside. The Celtics are a big team on their own. KG, Perk, Sheed and Big Baby provide a formidable frontline. The problem is the size of the Lakers frontcourt with Gasol and Bynum can completely neutralize that. Also, there is no Dikembe Mutombo or Mark Eaton (what up, Devine?) protecting the basket. But the Lakers have still done a pretty incredible job of protecting the basket. They’ve blocked 31 shots in the first four games of this series with 28 of them coming in the first three games.

The Lakers length presents a problem that the Celtics can fix in three ways and it’s all about Boston being aggressive in the way they do things.

1) Don’t Be Afraid to Attack the Basket
I don’t know that I’d say the Celtics were afraid to attack the basket in the first three games. They were blocked 28 times and actually won the points in the paint battle 116-112. But whenever Gasol and Bynum are in there together, there seems to be a bit of trepidation. Part of that could be the good team defense the Lakers are playing. With the way they’re helping, it’s easy to think twice about attacking and if you’re hesitating then it’s going to kill a lot of advantages.

This biggest way to fix this is to find ways to get Rajon Rondo to the basket without a lot of long limbs challenging his layups. Big Baby was great in Game Four in the way he smothered the interior. But that can be defended pretty easily with better effort and positioning by the Lakers bigs. Also, Lamar Odom pretending he cares would also be a great way to combat Davis. The more important thing is getting Rondo into the paint with good opportunities to score. Assuming the Lakers can’t block his shot so easily (six times in the first three games), even if Rondo misses the Celtics should be in a great position to grab the offensive boards and get good putback opportunities.

2) Grab the freaking ball!
Kevin Garnett used to be THE standard for NBA rebounding. During his days in Minnesota (chest pains for me right now), he had to do it all and a lot of the Wolves rebounding advantages were because of KG’s insistence on owning the boards. Since he’s been in Boston, the Celtics have been a good enough team to not need so much effort out of him. He’s able to concentrate on defense first, defense second and everything else third. Perhaps that lack of need for his boarding has turned him into a slightly above average rebounder instead of the all-world specimen he used to be. I’m sure the ravaging his knee took over the course of a couple of years hasn’t helped either.

KG used to be so great at tipping the boards to himself because he’s always been longer and more athletic than his opponents. He was able to tip the ball until it was safe to just grab it so he could fire a good outlet pass to his guards. With the declining athleticism and the great length of the holy Bynum-Gasol-Odom triumvirate, Garnett and the rest of the Celtics no longer have that luxury. When KG taps the ball to himself, Gasol and Odom have the length and the athleticism to match him or overwhelm him on the boards. They’re able to steal a lot of 50/50 balls because it’s still up for grabs. When Big Baby was dominating the offensive glass in Game Four, he just went after the ball and snatched it out of the air. He didn’t play badminton with it.

Kevin Garnett’s rebounding is really important to the Celtics success. They need to win two out of the next three games for banner number 18. That’s a 66.7 win percentage needed. Well, it’s no coincidence that since Garnett has joined the Celtics in 2007, they’re winning 69.8% of their games (including playoffs) when KG grabs nine rebounds or more in a game. He has to simply go grab the basketball.

Tipping the ball to yourself probably works against Boris Diaw, Kenny Thomas and Amare Stoudemire. But against the length of the Lakers and thieves like Kobe Bryant, it widens the margin for error on closing out defensive stops for Boston.

3) Be quick but don’t hurry… actually, Kendrick, you need to hurry
One of the most frustrating things for me to watch in the NBA is Kendrick Perkins in possessions of the ball around the basket. He’s the epitome of what you don’t want to teach young big men do around the rim. Especially against a frontline like the Lakers employ, you have to be quick to the basket. Kendrick Perkins moves around like the Tin Man when he hasn’t seen an oil can in months (insert BP joke I wasn’t clever enough to think of here).

Perkins could get a lot of easy buckets in this game and put a lot of pressure on the Lakers by racking up these easy points. Instead, he gets the ball and then allows someone to hit the slow motion button on him as he tries to get the ball up to the basket. Perk isn’t taller than most big men he faces and he isn’t all that athletic so it’s easy to see why he’d be careful around the basket. But he has to find ways go up quickly with the ball. He’s like one of those chattering teeth you wind up. Except, whenever you want to show someone how they move you always forget to wind it up enough for a full show. It ends up stopping abruptly and anti-climactically. So you have to wind it up a second time and by then the mystique of a spring loaded toy has been washed away in disappointment.

Well, Perk seems to always need that second wind up around the rim. Except when he finally gets it, there is a Laker around to block or challenge his shot. Kendrick has only taken 18 shots in this series but he’s been blocked five times. That’s an absurd percentage that would make Carlos Boozer blush.

Overall, the Celtics aren’t exactly getting killed in this series. It’s 2-2 and they have a chance to protect their homecourt and head back to Los Angeles tonight with a 3-2 lead. The easiest way for them to do this is to attack the paint much like Glen Davis did and find ways to get the Lakers size and length out of position.

In other words, go out and give them rabies.

I’M SORRY, NBA CHAMPION HOUSTON ROCKET KENNY SMITH

BDL Interview: Kenny Smith – Ball Don’t Lie – NBA  – Yahoo! Sports.

GOOD NEWS! NBA CHAMPION HOUSTON ROCKET KENNY SMITH HAS HEARD MY NAME!

BAD NEWS! NBA CHAMPION HOUSTON ROCKET KENNY SMITH THINKS I’M BAGGING ON HIM FOR NOT SHOOTING WELL IN LIMITED MINUTES!

Crap.

Here’s the offending article. I should have stressed the impact of Smith’s minutes because I did see Sam Cassell’s explosion in the game that followed and for the rest of the series, but those posts are supposed to be quick and to the point. So basically, the anti-Harper/Mahoney.

Especially painful in this context is that Smith’s my favorite player on my favorite team of all time, that 94 Houston Rockets squad. I have watched the Houston Rockets championship DVD set many, many times. So the fact that I got him all defensive for a few bad games in which he was part of a championship squad, considering he’s an all-time three point great has the 12 year old me yelling screaming and throwing things in my head.

By the way, take a second to check out Will Brinson’s interview with the Jet as well.

I’d just like to state for the record how awesome it is for these two guys to be interviewing NBA legends. Props to TACO BELL for that kind of opportunity.

What? I don’t know what you’re talking about with all this shameless plug stuff. Really, I don’t.

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