No, I did not lose a bet.

Yes, this is like root canal.

No, this is not a backhanded compliment (well, it probably will turn into that, but I’m going to do my best).

After careful review this morning, I’ve come to the conclusion that this Los Angeles Lakers team is, in fact, great. Not very good. Not very talented. Great.

Ugh. Let’s get this over with.
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I have maintained since 2008 that this was not a great team. That they were a very good team, the most talented team, a load of other superlatives, but never great. Because they never managed to really show any heart. Their version of “dealing with adversity” was when the Rockets without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady and Dikembe Mutumbo outworked them in a seven game series (they had Ming for three games). They always seemed to coast, and then do just enough to get by. They did not execute at an elite level. Their victory over the Magic last year was primed off of a weak playoff schedule (neither Utah nor Denver look very convincing as challengers at this point, do they?), and then a superior talent base with some karma from the Gods (read:Fisher) thrown in.

And when the Lakers cruised down the stretch, routinely getting offed by inferior teams, it was easy to bring that label back. I knew they’d make the Finals, because, again, the talent thing. And they struggled in OKC and it was easy to throw out the same labels at them about not being great and not responding to adversity.

Thing is, they have.

What started me down this path was thinking about how utterly sick I am of them in the Finals. And I am. Let’s not get confused. I would kill for literally any other team to be in the Finals, just to have something unfamiliar at this point. But then I realized “Holy hell, this team has been to the Finals three straight years.” That’s a remarkable feat in and of itself, particularly in a loaded Western Conference (well, besides Utah). They’ve been one of the final two teams for three straight seasons. And they’ve done it with Kobe as their best player, Lamar Odom as their third best, and Squeaky Wheel down there at center. That was the first piece.

Then I started to rationalize it. “Well, yeah, but they’re not a great team, still. I mean, look at the teams they struggled with!” And then I really started to think about it. Didn’t Oklahoma City actually play the best basketball in a losing series effort this year? Weren’t they the one team to really take it to LA, consistently? And for all their inexperience, that was a ridiculously good team. So them pushing LA shouldn’t be surprising. And losing by a gajillion in Game 4 would have sunk most teams. But LA not only battled back, but, and this is the important part, finished them in six games. They went into OKC and took down the Thunder because they’re better and the defending champs. They didn’t slack off and let it go seven. They didn’t mail it in and wait to go back to the comfy confines of Staples. They kicked in the door in OKC and took what was theirs, a series in six.

Utah I’m not giving them any credit for. That team might as well just be playoff cardboard cutouts. They should change their names to the Playoff Speed Bumps.

But Phoenix? That Phoenix team wasn’t just blessed with more talent than we gave them credit for all the way up until the second round. They were riding a streak of confidence. That team believed in itself. If ever there was a team primed to be a great story of a champion, it was the Suns, with Nash and that bench and Grant Hill all refusing to go down, battling their way back from an 0-2 series deficit and tying things up. They guaranteed a win in Game 6 and… LA smoked ‘em. They went into Phoenix, and crushed their hopes and dreams, took care of business. And that’s what great teams do. They don’t shrink from the moment, they steal the other team’s and then shove them down the stairs.  And that’s what they did.

So now they’re back in the Finals. And I think they’ll win. I really do. I’ve doubted Boston in three straight consecutive series, what’s one more, really? I think Boston is an incredible team. I just think this Lakers team is better. Lamar Odom has become a great player… for the Lakers. Ron Artest has become a great complimentary player… for the Lakers. Pau Gasol has become a great player… for the Lakers. All of these players early in their careers represented the salvation of small market teams for me and I’ve watched them become death rays on the Death Star. But that’s the reality of the NBA and I’m doing a disservice to this blog and you who’s reading if I deny it.

The Lakers are a great team. They run a spectacular offense with options at every turn, are led by one of the top five players of all time, are coached by a man who may have 11 rings in two weeks, and are arguably the most recognizable basketball franchise on the planet (and they’re playing the only team you can argue about it with). They have battled back from adversity and closed out series like champions. They are, quite simply, a great team, and I expect them to win their 16th NBA championship, cementing this crew as having passed the very lowest threshold of being considered a dynasty.

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Go Celtics.

Wait, Glen Davis.

Go Lakers!

Wait, Phil Jackson!

Go Celtics!

Wait…

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Behold, the face of greatness:

Via Reds Army (I saw this guy behind the announcers a month ago and commented on it on Twitter. Now, he haunts my dreams. And probably smells like a BP vacation.)

This post updates a chart I published a while back in this here space.  It takes a look at how each team shot at the basket against good, average, and poor at rim defenses.  Today’s post does two things: 1) updates the data for the full regular regular season 2) adds standard error.  It’s colorful.

We find that teams do shoot better against poor at rim defenses (63.8 FG%) compared to good at rim defenses (58.3 FG%).  Some teams reflect this trend uniformly and others buck the trend all together. Let’s take a look at some of those teams.

Washington: Somehow the Wizards managed to shoot better against strong basket defenders than they did against the rest of the league and the only team to do so.  In fact, their 62.9 FG% ranks as the second best mark next to the Cavs.  The Wizards experienced some serious roster turnover this year, using 25 different starting lineups and giving 24 different players run on the court, so if I were to bet on a team to post an odd progression like this, the Wiz would be a pretty good choice.

Boston: As I pointed out in an ESPN Insider preview for the Celtics-Cavs series, the Celtics had struggled mightily against good basket defenders during the regular season and I predicted their performance against the Cavs and Magic would be more of the same.  And they did struggle against Dwight Howard but less so against the Cavs.  The C’s shot just 55.6 FG% against the Orlando (game log here) and 60 FG% against their LeBron and Co.  However, I thought that this would be Boston’s fatal flaw. In the end, it was just a minor flaw and nothing more.  In case you haven’t hear, they made it to the Finals.

New Orleans: The Hornets put up the biggest variability in their finishing abilities at the basket with a standard error of 14.2.  Most of that variability can be blamed against their 20-for-60 shooting against the Chicago Bulls frontline in their two games (and that’s WITH Chris Paul).  The 33.3 FG% shooting at the basket ranked as the worst match-up performance in the league.

Want to learn more about the team vs. team matchups? Behold:

The color fill at the intersection represents a team’s at rim FG% against the  corresponding opponent in their head-to-head matchups this season.  Green’s good for the vertical axis team and red’s bad.  You can go ahead and ignore the white dots.

See the dark red square about four squares in from the left? That’s the NOR vs CHI matchup I just mentioned.  It’s convenient having Charlotte and Chicago as next door neighbors as you can see how the Hornets did well against the Bobcats but not the Bulls (two very good basket defending teams).  Hence the big standard error in the first chart.

You can see Toronto owned the Clippers while Philly destroyed Minnesota at the basket.  Look up your favorite team and how they performed against your nemeses.

Somehow — maybe because, as Phil Jackson suggested, the basketball gods are on his side — all of this has come full circle for Artest, who stands four wins away from the championship he feels he stole from himself and the Pacers six years ago. Artest, the pariah, whose tenure ended badly in Sacramento and with epic failure in Indiana, understood Saturday night in Phoenix that he’s been given a chance to make it all right.

“I put it in God’s hands,” Artest said. “I always told God, I didn’t know if he’d ever give me another chance. Because some things were not my fault, some things were. And the ones that were my fault, I felt pretty bad. But I feel blessed and I think God put me in a good situation in Indiana. He put me in a beautiful situation. I got married in Indiana, it’s my home, four years there, had a chance to go to the championship and I screwed it up. Screwed it up. So I said, ‘If you never give me another opportunity again, I’ll understand.’ He’s just continued to bless me and I just keep getting more opportunities — Houston, Sacramento, here. I didn’t think he’d give me another chance, but he did.”

via Artest’s road to redemption may conclude with Lakers, in Finals – NBA – CBSSports.com Basketball.

Artest’s regret is really touching in this article. He talks about Larry Bird, Jermaine O’Neal, Reggie Miller, even Jeff Foster. He talks about how he feels like a coward around them and how hard that is for them. It’s a delicate insight into a guy who genuinely feels bad for the damage he caused, not just by running into the stands and punching some guy who didn’t actually throw a beer at him, but for then ditching them by demanding a trade, submarining the franchise.

One problem.

This doesn’t provide any redemption.

Ron’s not helping some classic small market team looking for the promise land to win a title. He’s not helping out a veteran All-Star Hall of Famer win a ring to cement his legacy. He’s not helping out one of the best fanbases in the league. no, no. Instead, he took the mid-level exception to play for a team that would have paid him full price anyway because money’s not really an object for them, just so he could be somewhere glitzy that’s already elite. He’s helping a team that’s been to the Finals 31 times out of 62 go back again. He’s helping a team loaded with All-Stars that plays in an arena loaded with people who haven’t been to a game until May win another championship. He’s not redeeming himself, he’s spitting on everyone else he played for.

Sacramento and Houston didn’t get this Artest, the rabid defender who just wanted to fit into the offense and not take bad shots. They didn’t get this Artest, who stays out of trouble, knows his role, and doesn’t do anything disruptive. Indiana didn’t get this Artest, being a good teammate, respecting the chain of command, only dreaming of a championship. No, no, only the Lakers, who don’t actually NEED it, are on the receiving end of it. It’s not like there’s been any sort of concerted effort, either. You listen to Artest talk about fitting in, and that didn’t happen. This isn’t a team that loves one another and fights for each other. It’s a team of mercenaries basking in their own glorious superiority. It’s the Titans, laughing at the mortals.

Don’t get me wrong, I can say these things without pointing out anything bad. The 2006 Heat team didn’t like each other much. Safe to say that 2000-2004 Lakers team was probably the same. But Artest stopped being a malcontent the minute LA signed him. It wasn’t Phil Jackson’s mind games or Kobe’s leadership. It was a decision by Artest, that NOW, now that he was in LA, he should put the Crazy Pills on hold. And now his whole career arc is being shifted. From wild man turned entertaining lunatic, to quirky championship contributor.

I think it’s terrific that Artest has turned it around. I think it’s phenomenal that an All-Star was willing to sign for the MLE to try and win a championship. I think it’s tremendous that he’s going to get to rewrite what the history books say about him.

I just wish for once it was a team that actually needs something like that to catch that kind of a break.

(Side note: Got out of the car yesterday after work and on my way in, I noticed something in the grass. Round mushrooms growing after the heavy rains. You know what they looked like? I am not even kidding.

Snake eggs.

I take it as a sign. Lakers in six.)

I’m sure you’ve heard of Matt Barnes. He’s a marginal role player in the NBA and yet has found his way onto teams that happen to have issues at the small forward position. He’s a guy that has a bit of fire in his veins and hustles quite a bit all over the court.

He’s a sub-par offensive player and an above average defensive player. He’s an agitator on the court and in there to stir things up a bit. He’s basically the Bam Margera of the NBA. There’s not a lot of discernible talent and it’s hard to figure out how he keeps getting on TV. And yet there he is, breaking stuff for no reason and messing with his fat uncle that has the crazy eyes that don’t point in the same direction.

Well, he just opted out of his contract after the Magic were eliminated from the playoffs by the hands of the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Perhaps, you remember the Magic’s run in the playoffs this year. It was the same set of post-season games in which J.J. Redick completely outplayed his teammate and damn near made him obsolete. Perhaps you’re asking yourself why a struggling basketball player would try to get himself a pay raise after a bad run of basketball. Isn’t that the anti-Croshere move?

Maybe this will shed some light on the subject for you:

When you have the mentality that allows you to reason this would be an acceptable Tweet in any walk of life, LET ALONE IN THE WAKE OF YOUR LAST HOPE FOR A LONG-TERM CONTRACT IN THE NBA, you probably aren’t capable of making wise decisions regarding your future.

But this is Matt Barnes in all of his splendor and glory. He “keeps it real” or as I like to put it “keeps it really easy for the Orlando Magic and all other 29 teams to negotiate with his agent next month.”

B EZ, Matt.

Overall, Anderson showed flashes of brilliance, and I mean that. He scored in double-figures in 5 of his 6 starts, with the lone exception being a major outlier of a game in which he missed 10 of his 11 three-point attempts. And in back-to-back games in March, he scored 38 points in 43 minutes on 13-of-24 shooting. If he trims his usage a bit, improves his passing, and tightens up defensively, he could be a fringe All-Star within a few more years. Remember, he’s only 22, and has plenty of time to improve.

My worry is that he might not get that opportunity in Orlando, which owes Lewis more than $60 million over the next three seasons. Sure, Anderson can count on an uptick in playing time as Lewis ages, but he won’t crack 18 minutes per game. Will the Magic have the patience to stick with Anderson? Or will the long-term commitment to Lewis make Anderson expendable? I certainly hope, for the Magic’s sake, that they take the former approach. Anderson’s a rare talent. Big men who can shoot the three and rebound are valuable commodities in this league, especially surrounding a guy like Howard, who needs some space to work inside. Anderson’s the youngest of the players who fit that profile. I mean, compare some of his stats this year to those of Lewis’ All-Star campaign last year. Then consider his age. Then try to tell yourself that Anderson doesn’t belong.

via Evaluating Ryan Anderson – Orlando Pinstriped Post.

SVG is a tremendous coach. For all the ridiculous talk about panicking, the man simply wins, and does so while developing young talent. He hasn’t shown a reliance on any one particular facet (veterans being the common one), and has shown an ability to make adjustments when he needs to. He’s been bested because the other team was better. Not because he was somehow a failure. That said, his reluctance to rely on unproven players killed him this year just like it kills so many coaches.

I pondered this over at PBT only to watch it occur. I like to think Stan read my piece, realized the folly of his ways, and turned to J.J.

Or, you know, not.

Either way, he never did turn to Anderson. The struggle is this. You’re down 3-0. The Celtics have tossed you around the room like you’re a ragdoll and they’re some sort of demented toddler hellbent on destruction (or as I like to call him, “Big Baby Davis”). Nothing you have done has worked and you’re in desperate need of a stretch four that can knock down threes and rebound. “Oh, hey Ryan Anderson, sorry, didn’t mean to step on your foot… Anyway, WHERE COULD WE FIND SUCH A MAN?!”

Anderson’s production has been there. He’s a terrific asset, and he looks like the piece New Jersey shouldn’t have surrendered. That he’s now trapped three deep on Orlando is a shame. He’s capable of so much more, and if the Magic don’t want to use him, that’s fine, but let’s go see what he can do elsewhere. Trapping him long term in Orlando is a waste of his potential. If you’re not going to use him anyway, go get a Collins brother or someone else equally useless. Don’t pen up the kid that can shoot.

The small market teams should be making eyes at Orlando, offering to take Carter off their hands if they throw Ryan Anderson in. Getting a versatile perimeter forward with size, good health, and who’s young while tagging Carter for some cap space in order to better prepare yourself for the new CBA would be a pretty wise move. Either way, Anderson’s gotta get sunlight.

Hedo Turkoglu has certainly made a mess of things for the Raptors, and I’m sure Bryan Colangelo, Jay Triano, and everyone in Toronto is getting a bit more on the extracurricular side of things from Turk than they ever imagined. Even if Hedo was going to decline on the court, no one could have predicted his increasingly ruinous behavior. If I didn’t know better (or at least think I know better), I’d assume Turkoglu was systematically trying to destroy his own career. How else do you explain the bizarre events that have brought us to this point? How else would we make sense of Hedo Turkoglu’s latest comments, which don’t merely paint him as a lazy, out-of-touch vagabond, but as something of a miscreant?

It takes a truly special and concerted effort to enact this level of career detonation. What makes Hedo’s transgressions particularly significant, though, is the timing. If this were a disgruntled vet in the last year of his contract, it wouldn’t matter quite so much. If Turkoglu were coming off even a mildly successful season rather than a train wreck of one, this wouldn’t be a major issue. It’s the unique intersection of Hedo’s poor play, ridiculous contract, and unpredictably predictable comments is the point of interest here, as none of those factors is very noteworthy without the others.

In fact, the one macro element looming over all of this is the upcoming expiration of the collective bargaining agreement. Hedo’s contract is precisely the kind of deal that a new CBA would aim to fix; team owners are striving for shorter contract length and lower max value, in addition to greater contract flexibility. Essentially, they’re looking for anything and everything to prevent a disgruntled player on their roster from turning into Hedo Turkoglu. This exact situation is the endgame that nobody wants, and Hedo injected another dose of venom for the Raptors franchise by changing his status from “completely untradable” to “frozen in carbonite.” In saying that he’d like to be a part of another team, Turkoglu has only further ensured that he’ll be surrounded by fans that (understandably) despise him and what he represents and stuck on a team that would honestly rather do without his services at this point.

If only it were so simple. Maybe it will be in 2011, 2012, or 2046, but for now Toronto is out of luck. I’m not sure whether the fool is more foolish than the fool who hires him, but even if Colangelo made a monumental mistake in signing Hedo, this result has gone far beyond even the worst projections. It’s so much more than Turkoglu’s inability to produce on the court, and the fact that he would even think to respond in such a way with the public watching is almost beyond comprehension. Hedo really must have the NBA’s biggest victim complex, and all things considered, that could be pretty dangerous for the Raps. Hedo is quickly moving from confounding to toxic, and try as they might to resolve this, there isn’t an easy solution for Toronto. They’re locked in with a player that shouldn’t be there and doesn’t want to be. Yet with about $44 million in the middle, Turkoglu has plenty of incentive to stay and watch Toronto burn.

Look, if the negotiations over the new CBA end up delaying or canceling the 2011-2012 season, we’re all going to be bummed. Summers are long enough as it is, and the notion of an entire year without the NBA is giving me nightmares. But this has to be done. The system is broken, and guys like Hedo Turkoglu can sign one fairly large (but not even max-value) contract and put the fortunes of the entire franchise in jeopardy. There’s no question that Chris Bosh’s decision this summer is linked to where he can be the most competitive as a franchise player, and the total Hedo package essentially eliminates the home team from the running. The Raps really aren’t going to get that much better as currently constructed, Turkoglu could potentially make things even worse if he keeps this act up, and the trade option has been pulled forcefully from the table. In short, Toronto is pretty screwed.

This is the reason why the contract system needs to be overhauled. A new CBA may not stop GMs from giving out bad contracts to players that don’t deserve them, but it will limit the effects of those contracts. It’s Zach Randolph, it’s Elton Brand, it’s everyone that the Knicks signed to a free agent deal in the mid-2000s. For now though, it’s Hedo Turkoglu, who is holding a franchise ransom with no real demands and no hope of resolution.