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The assassination of Kevin Durant by the budding star Russell Westbrook?

You know what the best part about good, young, exciting teams is?

They’re exciting.

Sounds simple enough, right?

Take a trip back in time with me. From 1996 to 1999, the Minnesota Timberwolves were probably the most exciting young team this league had ever seen. Sounds hyperbolic, but it’s hard to say it wasn’t true for the time. Kevin Garnett was re-breaking the age barrier in the NBA, Tom Gugliotta was flourishing with his third team in five years, and Stephon Marbury was bringing his New York City legend to the Twin Cities.

While Googs was the solid rock of the trio, KG and Marbury were setting the league ablaze. They were the new era of the NBA. They embodied the direction of where the league was headed. They were dubbed the Hip Hop version of Stockton and Malone. They were supposed to take over the world together.

Then something happened. The Minnesota Timberwolves gave Kevin Garnett a 6-year, $126 million contract extension right before the NBA lockout in 1998 (and by right before I mean it totally caused the lockout). And after the lockout hit, Stephon Marbury was forever destined to make less money than KG. That’s where the cookie crumbled. Marbury’s ego would continue to spiral out of control. He had to be the man and he had to do it his way.

Soon after, the Wolves traded Marbury to the New Jersey Nets and destroyed the future in Minnesota. It left KG cold (literally) and alone (figuratively but almost literally) while Steph went on to make the playoffs just three times past the age of 20.

Fast-forward 12 years later, and I’m afraid that this young and exciting Oklahoma City Thunder team is in position to suffer the same fate. Playing the role of Stephon Marbury would be Russell Westbrook, and his stellar play has officially become a potential problem.

It’s not that Westbrook has been bad as an individual player. He’s had a career year across the board. In roughly the same amount of minutes compared to last season, Russ scored 471 more points this year while slightly increasing his assist numbers, shooting better from all over the floor, and becoming remarkably more efficient than he was his previous two seasons.

However, if you ask me, the rise of Westbrook’s individual game is a potential detriment to the Thunder organization and their franchise player Kevin Durant. I see a much bigger problem with the execution of Russell Westbrook rather than the theory of him. My biggest issue with his play and the future of the Thunder comes with his decision-making.

I would imagine there aren’t many players in the NBA as confident as Russ. In fact, you can just see the way he’s played this season that he believes he belongs amongst the elite in this league. With his athleticism, talent and confidence, you’ve got a very dangerous combination for opposing teams to deal with. The problem is that his team also has to deal with it.

Westbrook wants to be the man and show just what he can do on the court. He can dominate. He can put up highlights that will fill your Top 10 reels. He can win you basketball games. But it comes with a price and that price is the production of Kevin Durant.

Kevin Durant is the best player on the Thunder. Nobody should quibble with this fact. It’s unquibbable (made it up). And yet, you have people wondering if Westbrook might be the Thunder’s best player. The reason people are thinking this is because they fail to see how Westbrook negatively impacts what Kevin Durant does on the court.

Kevin Durant’s usage this season is down. It’s not a huge drop-off but falling from 32% to 30.6% is significant enough to show his lowered per game averages. However, what’s puzzling is how his efficiency has also suffered so much.

The reason Durant is less efficient seems to be that Russell Westbrook might be the most erratic star point guard since the fabled Stephon Marbury-Steve Francis era. You never know what he’s going to do on the court. Is he going to run the offense or is he going to awkwardly pull up on his jumper and show you what it would look like if Andre Miller actually elevated while shooting?

This is where Durant suffers. Yes, KD has issues with getting separation from his defenders, but the bigger problem is that the way he gets the ball is so inconsistent. Some guys, no matter how great they are, just need to be in a rhythm on the court. Carmelo Anthony is so inefficient and considered a volume scorer because the flow in which he tries to score is so idiosyncratic (by his own volition of course). The reason Durant gets the ball so inconsistently is because Westbrook is still trying to toe the line between point guard and “holy shnikes, I think I can get by everyone and get my own shot.”

By looking at their on/off court numbers (thanks to Stats Cube), you can see Westbrook is the same no matter what but Durant is MUCH better when he has Eric Maynor in the game.

The fact that Durant’s numbers are SO dramatically different with Westbrook on the bench, rather than with them side-by-side, is pretty staggering. Normally, you could just point to the fact that without a second dominant scorer on the court Durant’s numbers should skyrocket like they do.

Of course, he’s going to score more points, get more shots and probably get to the free throw line more without Russ by his side. Seeing that Westbrook’s scoring numbers are virtually the same when Durant is on the court while KD’s PER, free throw attempts and plus/minus dramatically improve when he’s sans his starting point guard seems like an issue.

Checking out his stats when Eric Maynor is on the court, you see that he works much better with the backup, pass-first point guard.

The loss to Denver in Game 4 Monday night was a perfect example of the rollercoaster that is Russell Westbrook. He varied from pernicious to imposing and back from dribble to dribble. He carried them in the third quarter of that game and kept things from getting out of hand in Denver’s favor. Then the fourth quarter came and he was “feeling it” so much that he took 11 shots while Durant only got five attempts, and the Thunder couldn’t get any consistency to their fourth quarter.

In the Daily Dime Live chat, you had Thunder fans caps locking for Maynor to be subbed in and you had Denver fans caps locking in ecstasy over his decisions on the court. It was like Westbrook was grabbing the wheel of the Titanic because he felt he was the only one who could drive that ship through the fatal iceberg.

So what does all of this mean? Are the Thunder doomed? Do they need to get rid of Westbrook in the name of Durant’s fire-breathing ways? Should Eric Maynor be the future point guard of this team? Will Russell Westbrook add Vaseline to his daily caloric intake?

My overall point is this. The Oklahoma City Thunder are a more dangerous bunch when they’re utilizing Kevin Durant as the consistent focus of the attack. If there is that clichéd ideal of there needing to be an alpha dog, Durant has to be it. Westbrook could eventually find the right mixture of point guarding and getting his to make them an unstoppable force.

However, there could come a day when they have to make a decision of whether or not Russell Westbrook is the right running mate for Kevin Durant, and it probably won’t come down to anything having to do with how good of a basketball player he is. His selfishness isn’t suffocating right now, but the potential is there. When he believes he’s the best option, it’s the riskiest game plan OKC can employ.

He’ll win them plenty of games, but will his defensive decline and confidence to win ball games be the proper team basketball for this young team? More than likely, he comes out tonight and is a big part of closing out the Nuggets. But there could come a time in which Sam Presti has to decide between keeping a young star happy or jettisoning his ego for the greater good of this young and exciting Thunder team.

Hopefully 12 years from now, we’re not left wondering what could have been. The future of this team is too exciting to ruin.

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why on earth do you not consider FG% as a "scoring number??" Westbrook is substantially worse at scoring on a given shot attempt when Durant is not on the floor and Durant scores just as well, only less frequently, when he shares the floor with Westbrook. Simply put, Durant makes Westbrook more effective while Westbrook makes Durant not have to carry the offense on every play when he's out there.

The numbers just don't back up the assertion here.

What Ganesh said.

Usage and efficiency are different things. It makes some sense that Westbrook, as the point guard, has similar usage regardless of who else is on the floor, because he plays how he plays and has the ball in his hands at least once on most every possession.

It also makes sense that Durant's usage is higher when Westbrook is off the court. But Durant's efficiency is the same regardless of who is on the court with him.

I mentioned this yesterday. But checking out information from 82games sheds more light on these numbers. The Durant - Maynor combo most often occurs where Durant is the only starter on the floor. When does this happen? against the other team's second unit, when Durant comes back to the floor, after rest, with the sole purpose of protecting a lead. Durant is playing against weaker competition, he's rested, and the entire 2nd team looks to him to creat action.

Westbrook, meanwhile, is on the court with other starters. Which means he is likely playing against starters, and will be the focus of the opposing team's defense while KD is getting his rest.

Given only the numbers you've shown here, I don't see that Kevin Durant is different from any of the other scoring title holders of the past decade. He does well, especially when the team around him isn't giving him anything and he's playing against weaker opposition. But doing that doesn't lead to titles or greatness. If his greatness is going to come from anywhere, it will be from working with Westbrook and rising to the challenge of playing with another phenomenal star.

Nice analysis and something I have been saying all year. They flaw in the argument is that both RW and KD are but 22 years and more importantly, unlike CP# or DWill RW is not a natural point guard but with more experience, his inner light bulb should go on. This would mean quicker passing and less putting up wild shots. At least, I hope so.

It takes a lot of time to develop at this position especially when playing with kids your own age. My guess is Russell will mature and so will his game. Right now he takes everything personally and that is when his game suffers.

Let's remember there probably has not been a team with so many terrific athletes at such a young age as the Thunder and the meshing takes time. If RW becomes a superior point and learns these lessons, the results will be obvious. Also remember when the season started, the critics were almost unanimous that Durant wasn't a prime time player.

Nevermind, I guess Durant did have an argument with Westbrook according to another news article. Good for KD. And maybe the message got through. KD clutch tonight.

Oh my gosh. Somebody who agrees with me. Westbrook has elevated his game, no doubt. And sometimes, he really helps out his team. Most of the time. But he really leaves me scratching my head when he pulls up for 3s like he did Game 4 in Denver. I bet you anything if he had decided to get the ball do Durant, OKC would've won that game. He gets jumper happy and often seems to forget that he has the best scorer in the NBA on the court with him. He needs to realize that the best option in crunch time is to get Durant the ball. This is what I think separates Westbrook from Rondo. Rondo makes great decisions most of the time, and gets the ball in the right person's hands. He also doesn't take very many bad shots, limiting them to wide open jumpers and high percentage shots around the basket. I just imagine how good KD would be with a guy like Rondo on his team. Westbrook still has hope though. This is only his 3rd year right? He has time to mature. I think he will. I don't think he's selfish, I just think he gets a little overexcited and makes poor decisions. Kevin should be more vocal, but knowing him, he probably hasn't said a word, and might not even be upset with his teammate except really deep down.

This was a very insightful piece. I, too, have noticed that Westbrook tends to make bad decisions with the ball when he is "feeling it," though I never realized that he can be hurting KD's production as well. Thumps up for the article, Zach.

thanks for this. great post, and confirmed my very suspicion regarding russ.

OK after looking more closely you make some decent points, I just hate Marbury and love Russ. Sorry, Zach.

idiotic and sensationalized. A mediocre writer's attempt to stir the pot. Westbrook is an All-star and emerging superstar. Get with it. He's not fucking Marbury you idiot.

Those stats are pretty eye-opening, but I wonder a few things. KD's numbers may be better when Maynor's in and Westbrook's out, but does that mean the team is better? I highly doubt it. And for how many other superstars is the same story true? I be the numbers would be quite similar.

I feel like a lot of this is overreaction to what happened in Game 4 rather than what's been going on the whole season. Westbrook doesn't strike me as immature, foolish, and egotistical as Starbury was either.

Then again, I could be totally wrong and maybe these guys really don't like each other.

Great article. But you may want to inspect the lineups that Kevin Durant is a part of when Westbrook is off the court. Usually, he's got James Harden and Nick Collison in the game with him, far better offensive players / ball movers than Thabo Sefolosha and Nenad Krstic / Kendrick Perkins who Westbrook gets to play with more.

We saw Russell Westbrook try to be that pass first guard in game three, and it ended up being the Thunder's worst offensive game of the series because his teammates (primarily Sefolosha, Perkins, Cook, Ibaka when not at the FT line) could not convert field goal attempts. While I don't disagree that Westbrook and Durant have a ways to go to find that synergy on the court, IMO a great deal of the 'Durant plays better without Westbrook' situation has to do with the Thunder bench having more consistent offensive role players.

An overall look of the same type of on-court/off-court data for Russell Westbrook and other point guards shows that he's not helping his team as much as other point guards: http://t.co/160ifrM.

i still wish they would have taken ricky rubio in 2009.. although apparently hes not living up to the hype in barca. the only time i've seen him play was in the olympic game, and he seemed dope then. i just don't see enough control in westbrooks game for him to lead a team from the point. he just seems like a shooting guard.

I'm not sure I agree entirely with this only because of the humble spirit of Kevin Durant and some other teams that dealt with great players being together. Kevin Durant has prooved to be one of the most humble players in the NBA with the way he has held himself. When asked by SI to pose for the cover he would not do it unless accompanied by some less known players like Thabo Selfolosha and Nenad Kristic because he felt they were important to the team too, not just himself and Westbrook. And in another case the Bulls with Jordan and Pippen. These two were both great and definitely could have handled a team individually because they were both great. They both seemed to put aside stats and egos when they won both three peats as both their stats declined in production when they won. Especially Jordan's. But this point is very valid and on a personal note I hope it doesn't happen because this is one of my favorite duos of all time to watch.

I just don't see an overly-large ego with Westbrook. Listening to press conferences, hearing interviews, and seeing his interactions with other players, he seems like a really good guy. The situations where he starts to press and make questionable decisions, I have always believed that he is doing so to help the team win-not in an effort to "get his". Maybe Durant's jumper is cold, or has a physical defender like Artest denying the ball. Westbrook and Durant seem to genuinely like each other. We've seen countless fast breaks where Russ has an easy dunk, but dishes the ball to Durant to show that he is still all about the team. One person who I'd like to see him work better with is Harden, who he never seems to find when the Bearded One is standing wide open on the wing. I think a lot of that comes from not getting a ton of minutes together, as Harden has come off the bench the whole season. This should improve. Let's not forget that you are comparing a kind, personable young man with no off-the-court red flags whatsoever in Westbrook, to "Starbury" a man who now sports a prominent facial tattoo. Let's pump the breaks a little bit here. In one game, Westbrook shot 12-30 (40%) from the field. Over the entire series against the 37-45 Pacers, Derrick Rose shot 37% (!!!!) from the field. What am I really trying to say after all this? Never trust a man with a facial tattoo.

Wait a minute...

Your argument is that Durant is a much less efficient player when playing with Westbrook. This doesn't seem to be true. His FG% is the same, his 3pt% is the same. His usage increases, but his efficiency is the same (according to the numbers you cited, you never show us Durant's PER).

From an efficiency standpoint, Maynor does not help Durant's production either. Durant has the same FG% while his 3Pt% actually increases when Maynor is off the court.

Your second claim is that Westbrook's production is roughly the same with Durant on or off the floor. From an efficiency standpoint, this simply isn't true. His FG% drops 5% when Durant's not on the floor while is 3pt% drops 9%! Without showing us PER ratings, win shares, or offensive ratings, your argument holds no water.

In fact, it makes total sense that Westbrook would be more efficient with Durant on the floor: Defenses key on stopping Durant leaving more room for Westbrook to create off the dribble.

Trackbacks

  1. [...] Zach Harper of HP wrote a terrific piece on Durant and Westbrook yesterday: “However, there could come a day when they have to make a decision of whether or not Russell Westbrook is the right running mate for Kevin Durant, and it probably won’t come down to anything having to do with how good of a basketball player he is. His selfishness isn’t suffocating right now, but the potential is there. When he believes he’s the best option, it’s the riskiest game plan OKC can employ. He’ll win them plenty of games, but will his defensive decline and confidence to win ball games be the proper team basketball for this young team? More than likely, he comes out tonight and is a big part of closing out the Nuggets. But there could come a time in which Sam Presti has to decide between keeping a young star happy or jettisoning his ego for the greater good of this young and exciting Thunder team.” [...]

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  5. [...] lot of people were saying that the Westbrook-Durant relationship is becoming like a Marbury-Garnett one. Stephon Marbury infamously got himself traded away from Minnesota because he wanted to be the star [...]

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