
Photo from FallenPegasus via Flickr
Allow me to begin with a confession: I only recently read Chris Ballard’s “The Art Of A Beautiful Game” for the first time. This is far from a lifelong neglection of my basketball education – the masterpiece arrived on shelves only two years ago – but as a self-proclaimed basketball fanatic, so much so that I refuse to show interest in other aspects of life even when the entirety of basketball is locked behind negotiations and fiscal disagreements, this has been a sore spot for me two years running. No more.
From amongst the countless fascinating tales that Ballard weaves with his literary yarn and unique interviewing skills, one particular quote stood out to me. While discussing the “superbigs” of the NBA, Ballard goes into detail describing the work ethic, the training routine, and the close surroundings of the recently retired Yao Ming. Due to the sharp contrast between the 2009 storytelling and my 2011 reading, I couldn’t help but feel cheated.Yao is rightfully described by Ballard as an incumbent superstar; nowadays, he is more distinguishable as a bright flash of greatness that collapsed under the burden of a 300 pound body that lacked adequate support, a could-have-should-have who wasn’t, not by his own accord, but because of the cruel world of podiatry.
I fully recommend you read the entire book, then do so again, as it would be impossible for me to even begin to convey just how much I enjoyed it. For now, though, I want to focus on a single quote from the Superbigs chapter, in which an unnamed NBA scout says regardingYao, “[he] has maxed out his potential as much as any player in the league”.
Without delving too far into whether this statement is right or wrong, the notion of its plausibility struck me with the intellectual equivalent of sheer force. As dominant as a peaking Yao was on the court, he clearly had his limits – though nimble for such a giant, his 7’6” frame placed a structural limit to his speed and quickness, and he struggled, as most big men often do, with turnovers and occasional foul trouble. But of the flaws in his game, were any of them truly salvageable? Athletes stretch the limits of our imaginations, but they too are human. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the melancholy way Yao eventually left the game. But even on the court, most of the things he couldn’t do were just things he had no possible way of doing, as opposed to obtainable skills that he failed to obtain.
The problem with this argument is that it’s easily manipulated. Kevin Garnett, at his peak, could do virtually everything that can be done on a basketball court. Does this mean Garnett maximized a round 100% of his potential? What about Michael Jordan? Best player ever, yada yada yada, but he could have improved that 3 point shot, no? And what about a Nick Collison, a limited player who uses smarts and guile to be a contributor to a good team although his basic skill set would indicate otherwise?
This entire hypothetical game is based on the loose assumption that every player has a ceiling. A certain point that is achievable only by a maximum amount of work, and that can not be surpassed no matter how much effort is put in. We are fairly certain this ceiling exists – after all, it is a derivative of humanity itself. Whether this ceiling is measurable, however, is another question.
An amazing fact: Durant’s cult of personality has expanded wildly without a single publication producing a revealing in depth profile on him. I’m not sure we really know anything new about what makes Kevin Durant tick.
That’s OK. In a time when the threat of a losing a whole season hangs over the NBA and its fans, simply showing up and playing in earnest has made Kevin Durant the world’s coolest basketball player.
via Kevin Durant’s summer of love « HoopSpeak.com.
For the second consecutive year, we have been witnesses to the Summer of Kevin Durant. The circumstances are similar, yet different. In August-September of 2010, Durant emerged as the main executioner on a second-tier USA basketball team that feasted on a combination of first-tier and second-tier teams from other countries around the world. Durant proved himself a winner on a huge stage and won over the hearts of everybody everywhere.
This summer, Durant took a different route, but produced the same swoons and sighs from the huddled masses. From Rucker to Goodman, Durant did nothing more than play basketball. This time, it wasn’t leadership and skill, it was romanticism incarnate. How can you not fall in love with he who just wants to play, wherever and whenever? Durant’s game is so smooth, so magical – my father says he should win MVP every year until he retires just because he has “the nicest face”, and he has a solid point – that it is impossible to remain in one’s seat as the knife that is his jumper swooshes through the butter that is the net. The way he dominates each and every venue is almost irrelevant. What matters is the way it’s happening: joyously, like a child at play, taking his backpack to the playground, destroying all his other little friends with a shy smile on his face, and going back home.
Naturally, as was the case last year, the buzz around Durant has raised questions. How far can he go? How good is he now? If he dominates Lebron James at a Goodman-Melo League matchup, what could he do on an actual NBA court? How good is this kid anyway? What, dare I say, is his ceiling?
Anyway, I asked my friend what he thought the ceiling for LeBron’s career could be. Again, this is someone who was overqualified to answer that question, as well as someone who loves the NBA too much to exaggerate his answer just for a reaction. So I knew I’d get an honest take from him. Here was his answer.
“Doesn’t have one.”
via Simmons: NBA MVP breakdown, Part II – ESPN Page 2.
Ignore, for one second, the improbably transformation of LeBron James’s career from April 2008, when this was written, to today. Focus on what the quote actually says. No ceiling. Is this even possible?
Going strictly by my set of rules, the answer is yes. But my set of rules is a tricky one. When I say a player has no ceiling, I mean that there is no basketball skill that he cannot acquire, thus theoretically enabling him to be the perfect basketball player. This is obviously practically impossible, mostly because the amount of hours one must put in to improve his game to perfection is so large that they probably do not fit into a single human lifetime, and certainly do not fit into a human athletic peak.
Take, for example, Serge Ibaka. The man is a physical specimen (as any theoretical “ceilingless” player would have to be, because physical skills are much harder to enhance than technical ones), and the insane amount of improvement he’s made in just two years make me believe that from a purely genetic standpoint, he can learn anything. But he entered the league so raw to begin with, that if he is indeed to learn “everything”, by the time he’ll be finished, that other-worldly athleticism will be long gone.
That said, there are a few players in the league that I define as ceiling-less. James is certainly one of them, though at this point, it’s fair to wonder whether there is a ceiling to the mental part of his game. Dwight Howard is, to these eyes, by far and away the second best basketball player alive, but his ceiling is quite existent, if incredibly high – the free throws, the post game, the turnover issues, all improvable, none of them to the max.
Derrick Rose, I would venture, has no ceiling. He has the work ethic and the magnificent build to be one of this league’s best perimeter defenders; the passing game improved considerably last season, enough so to convince me that eventually, he could be as elite at running an offense as he is at carrying it. The biggest issue would be to acquire a new and improved jump shot that is as good at getting into the basket as it is at getting into headlines, but I see no reason why this would be unattainable.
John Wall has no ceiling. He’s like a ridiculously concentrated version of Rose, entering the league with better defensive tools and far superior court vision, but then again, the jump shot is in even worse shape. If Rose’s jumper is the vulnerable heel to his otherwise indestructible Achilles, then John Wall is a demigod with an amputated leg. Still, jumpers can be acquired, and if Wall does so with his, I can envision a world in which he’s the game’s best player.
Blake Griffin has no ceiling. Mostly because no ceiling would dare try and obstruct him while he’s jumping upwards. Already one of the league’s best scorers without actually knowing how to score, and one of its best rebounders without actually knowing how to rebound, and on the heels of one of the most impressive passing seasons for a rookie big man ever, the notion of Blake playing basketball after actually learning to do so is utterly frightening.
Please note that “not having a ceiling” doesn’t mean a player will exponentially improve forever, each season better than the last. Obviously, every player peaks at some point, and that peak is always measurable. What this does mean is that I can not reasonably place a projection in which I can confidently say “Player X will never do better than A, B, C”. Odds are, Derrick Rose never scores 30 points per game with 50-40-90 percentages, John Wall never averages 24, 5 and 12 a game while winning Defensive Player of the Year, and Blake Griffin never leads the Clippers to actual respectability, because if he tries to expel Donald Sterling he will be dragged into hell by evil gargoyles and Michael Olowakandi. But of the infinite scenarios in which the NBA can unfold over the next years, each of these occurrences takes place in at least one. That, to me, is potential, even if maximizing it is extremely unlikely.
I can not envision a scenario in which, for a singular point in time, Kevin Durant is the NBA’s best player.
In every other economy in the world, specialization is valued, appreciated for the benefits it presents. Different scales of specialization have transformed industries and, hell, civilization itself. LeBron isn’t a great passer period. LeBron is a great passer … for a high-scoring small forward. There are about two dozen better passers than LeBron in the NBA. He’s only notable because he’s also scoring 25 points a game. Yet because Durant is single-minded in his focus and singularly talented in one given area of import, he’s dinged and it’s suggested he’s not a reasonable candidate for the label of Greatest Of All Time. It doesn’t make any sense.
via Kevin Durant And The Heroism Of Specialized Labor – SBNation.com.
When Ethan Sherwood Strauss, Hoopspeak.com’s eloquent yet curmudgeony devil’s advocate extraordinaire, took to the interwebs making the exact claim you saw before the last break, I shook my head in agreement. The struggles creating his own shot, thus making him incredibly vulnerable against ball denials, to go with the disturbing assists-to-turnovers ratio make Durant an imperfect offensive weapon. This imperfection, of course, is nothing to major to prevent him from being the league’s best scorer, but the differences between best and 4th best are quite often minute. When comparing Durant to Carmelo Anthony, they are not enough to breed inferiority; when compared to James or Howard, the story is different.
Tom Ziller, quoted above, takes the opposite side of the debate, focusing on why creating for one’s self isn’t a necessity for a great scorer. It’s hard to argue against him. Efficiency numbers hint to us that Durant may very well be not only the league’s best scorer today, but the best ever. Criticize him all you want for being somewhat disarmed by aggressive Tony Allen ball denials, but while doing so, you must also remember just how good Tony Allen ball denials are at disarming offensive options, ask yourself why the Grizzlies were working so hard to prevent Durant from touching the ball. And while we’re not ones to yell “SCOREBOARD!”, you might want to look at this when you’re telling yourself how Durant struggled in that series.
My main issue with what Ziller is saying is that I feel him and Strauss are making different arguments. Durant the scorer is incredible; but this discussion is about Durant the player. Eventually, there comes a time when scorers can’t score anymore – percentages only go as high as 100, after all. And while Durant can still, incredibly, improve there – his 46% from the field and 35% from three last season both seem at least 5% lower than how it feels when you watch him, and Scotty Brooks could eventually understand offenses – he is so close to perfection in this regard, that the tweaks he can realistically make won’t be enough to close the distance between him and the NBA’s uber-elite on their own.
Ziller disagrees with me here, saying that we shouldn’t penalize Durant for specialization. Conversely, though, we must not reward him for it. Kevin Love’s rebounding is phenomenal, but he is still a problematic defensive player; similarly, Durant’s game still has weaknesses, on both ends of the court. Durant is a boost to an offense even without scoring by sheer value of intimidation and spacing – but these values are compromised if he struggles to find the open man, or even if he only does so at a subpar rate. And though he has become a very good rebounder and an average defender at worst, Durant’s effect on the defensive end of the court just can not compete with that of the league’s best two way players, even if he is a boost to an offense by the sheer value of intimidation.
The question is, why I think this is a problem that will persist. After all, by defining a ceiling for Durant, I am by my own standards declaring that I can’t envision a scenario in which he improves the non-scoring aspects of his game enough to let the scoring carry the rest. This is because Durant’s flaws, unlike those of a Lebron, aren’t ones that can be sorted out with an empty gym and copious amounts of sweat – they are structural.
Despite his once-in-a-millennium body, he can not compete with James and Howard as far as sheer athleticism goes. Durant’s ferocious dunk over Brendan Haywood was such a shocking play not just because of the violent way in which Durant made sure Haywood will no longer be able to show his face in public, but because it was so out of character. He lacks the explosiveness to contest at the rim, or the bulk to stop power forwards down low (to be fair, adding that bulk will just hurt his game, and I would advise against it). His length alone will probably eventually make him a strong perimeter defender, but he’s too big to become truly elite at it, and he’s not strong enough to convert that size to the interior. That’s where Lebron and Dwight separate from the pack – they defend everything, everywhere, and they just do it better.
Kevin Durant’s ceiling is incredibly high. In fact, it is so high, that it is almost invisible. If someone were to ascend to the top of the Durant Potential Tower, he would probably discover that the ceiling was made of glass – thus enabling us a perfect view of the sky above, and taunting us into believing that the ceiling wasn’t even there. But it exists. And while it shouldn’t prevent Kevin Durant from being one of the best ever, it should stop him from dominating his peers, just by virtue of them being so ridiculously good as well. This isn’t a knock on Durant as much as an ode to just how good basketball players have become and can still develop. Durant is an evolutionary step to be sure, but as far as the hierarchy goes, he still has a few links to look up to.