What If There Is An Overseas?
“Player X will consider going overseas and everybody wants to sign him because everything is going to work out just fine for everybody”
As the slippery slope of the NBA lockout has become greasy with the oily remains of what was once a promising 2011-2012, players and agents have been scrambling for leverage against the machine that is David Stern and his constituents.
Most leverage-gaining mechanisms were effective almost exclusively in creating rage. From the decertification that was 4 months late (and not entirely necessary) to the downright obnoxious “Let Us Play” twitter campaign to Nick Young and JaVale McGee eating a whole lot of cinnamon (I have to assume that this is not something they tend to do without trying to trick their negotiating partners into submission), we have watched solemnly as players harm themselves in the name of the greater good, decrying the better days when the entertaining likes of Morris Peterson and Jamaal Tinsley were still among us. David Stern has watched with us, and has responded in his typical snobby, bemused manner, usually cocking his head ever so slightly to the side and trying very hard not to look like something that isn’t a self-aggrandizing amphibian.
One of these methods has been the threat of playing overseas. “We are the product!”, say the players, “if the NBA refuses to reap the benefits from our other-worldly talents, other leagues will!”. And so, nearly every single one of the NBA’s 450 players has been linked to this team or that team in a country that is very far away.
The general response to this has been some kind of stifled chuckle. NBA players are, indeed, the best in the world at their craft, but acquiring them does not come without risk for a team of foreign lands. The adjustment to a different style of basketball – heck, a different style of continental mainland – is a hard one, and in order to make it, an NBA player would usually ask for a substantial amount of cash. With European teams usually intent on finalizing their rosters as early as possible, hesitant of taking the risk of building an entire squad around a guy who will leave once Billy and Davy say “ding”, and generally hurting from an economy that is hardly being kind, spots on European teams are few and between.
Or are they?
I agree, in general, with the sentiment stated in the above paragraph. It falls in line with just about every convention in European basketball. There is nothing that scares a European squad more than signing a 20-something player who has never played professionally outside of the US – the fluctuations are too random, the risk too high. You can never know when such a thing works out – just look at Lithuania’s Zalgiris Kaunas, some sort of Bizarro Basketball Land where Ty Lawson and Sonny Weems are teammates but somehow Weems is playing fantastically and Lawson struggles to make a positive impact.
But this situation is nothing like anything else Europe has ever encountered. For starters, the marketing potential of any NBA guy is enormous, whether he’s good or not – the two weeks J.J. Hickson spent in Israel involved way more hype than any NBA player who has ever come over to the Israeli League save for Jordan Farmar, and J.J. is aggressively subpar as far as NBA standards go – with Farmar standing proudly above him in the magnificent realms of mediocrity. Teams will be hesitant to bring over NBA players.
But how about former Euroleague guys? Finances aside, what’s the risk there? Guys like the Gasols, Luis Scola, Manu Ginobili, Jose Calderon, etc. have dominated European play in the past. The adjustment has already been made years ago. The only risk is cash – and hey, if your team can improve dramatically, is it really a risk? Apparently, teams say no. A flood of European players are returning to where they came from: Andrei Kirilenko and Nicolas Batum have been the best players in Europe so far this season, Tony Parker is paying himself but a few pennies to play for the team he owns, and guys like Nikola Pekovic, Rudy Fernandez, Danilo Gallinari, and Ersan Ilyasova are having a good time running the show on their old stomping grounds.
And once this happens? Then you get the peer-pressure. Consider, if you will, the NBA trade deadline of 2008. After Boston swung for the fences with the Ray Allen-Kevin Garnett combo, and after Los Angeles borrowed Pau Gasol from Memphis and “forgot” to give him back, the entire league was sent into a tailspin. The ensuing arms race saw the Phoenix Suns – then the West’s best team – trade a key piece in Shawn Marion for a 360 pound gamble in Shaquille O’Neal, and the Dallas Mavericks – 1 year removed from 67 wins, 2 years removed from the finals – parting with young stalwart Devin Harris for an aging Jason Kidd, who, may I remind you, was still very much jumperless Ason.
A similar situation could take place here. If the Gasol brothers come home to Barcelona – already one of Europe’s top basketball teams – what do you think their bitter rival, Real Madrid, says? “No thank you, Rudy Fernandez and Serge Ibaka are enough”? Hell no! They swing for the Dwights and the LaMarcuses and the Dirks – anybody who can top that Catalan splash, both on the court and off it. And once a strong Real is even stronger, what say CSKA Moscow, or Maccabi Tel Aviv, or Panathinaikos? These are teams that dominate their domestic competitions, and their entire existence is built around the prospect of capturing the Euroleague crown. You think they’ll give it away just because bringing a really really really good player costs a lot of money? What about the Turkish squads Anadolu Efes, Fenerbahce Ulker, and Galatasaray, all three based in Istanbul, who are gunning for the Euroleague title this year more than ever because their hometown is this year’s host of the tournament’s Final Four?
Eventually, a trickle-down effect could happen. The elite clubs will bring in the all-stars, because they can afford to put up the cash for all-world, no-risk guys. The middle-rungs, desperate to keep some sort of reasonable striking distance from the ever rising cream of the crop, will take their best shot at the next tier of NBA talent. And the bad teams will be faced with very disappointed fan bases, and very shiny NBA scrap heaps. What do you think they do?
Make no mistake, despite the simplistic breakdown, this is hardly a sure thing. The entire continent may be a giant stack of dominoes, but it is a stable one, and will require more than one ignition point to go tumbling over. Furthermore, the entire deal is moot unless NBA players really do agree to substantial pay cuts. Then again, $100,000 a year is better than getting paid nothing out of your 5 million NBA contract. And we keep hearing how much players truly just want to play. This could be the place they show it. Stick it to those owners by fulfilling the prophecies from the Nike commercials – and make a few extra of those on the way, because you now have another language your fans want to hear you speak in.
Europe could be that outlet. It needs to agree to be that outlet first, and there is a very big chance that it passes entirely. But my bet is that it at least perks up an ear. If the season truly is canceled – thus removing the risk of handing NBA outs, which is one of the biggest, if not THE biggest detriment to these much rumored deals – teams would be foolish not to, at the very least, explore their options. And at this stage in the negotiations, a few more options are really the only thing players are asking for.























