You have no idea how many times I started to write this piece. About an hour after the Knicks beat the Mavericks on Sunday, I sat in front of my computer determined to write something – anything – about Jeremy Lin. I stared at a blank screen for a while, and then the inspiration came. I wrote 3 paragraphs. They were the best 3 paragraphs I had ever written… until I read them. Those great paragraphs I wrote? They sucked. DELETE.

I took a quick break, then went right back to it. Blank screen. Inspiration. I wrote 4 paragraphs this time. They were the best 4 paragraphs of my life; I was sure of it. Then I read them. Terrible. DELETE.

I spent the next 5 hours repeating that process countless times. Each time, I was sure I had broken through; sure I had found the right words, the right angle. Each time, I failed. Miserably. So I gave up. I’m not writing about Jeremy Lin, I decided. I just can’t find anything to say. I told Matt Moore I wanted to write about Lou Williams instead. That went over really well.

@JADubin5 just so I understand this. You're going to write about Lou Williams and not Jeremy Lin. Why do you hate giving my site pageviews?

February 19, 2012 5:49 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite

@HPbasketball

Hardwood Paroxysm

Still, I set out to write about Lou Williams. Unfortunately, someone somewhere had other plans for me. My plan, as you may already know by now, was to write about how Lou Williams uses screens to get open looks. For some unknown reason, I couldn’t get those videos to work. I was frustrated. I went to sleep.

I woke up Monday morning and wrote that piece about Lou Williams. It ran, people read it. Maybe some liked it, maybe some didn’t. I was satisfied with it. I was writing again. I figured, I’m in a rhythm right now, I’ll try to write that Jeremy Lin thing again. But you know what they say about the best laid plans. It was just more of the same. I’d write a few paragraphs, read them and then delete them. So I gave up again.

This time, I didn’t even tell Matt what I was writing about instead. I just wrote it. I spent the time between my first class of the day and what I thought was my second class (it was canceled by the Professor in a horribly confusing email) writing an article about Shaun Livingston. Again it ran, again people read it. Maybe some liked it, maybe some didn’t. Again, I was satisfied with it. And again, I was writing. I wanted to try to write about Jeremy Lin again, but I had precious little time before class. And I didn’t have an angle anyway.

I started talking to Andrew Lynch on G-chat. I told him everything you just read. I tried and tried to write about Lin, but I can’t. I can’t find the right angle, the right words, nothing. I’ve hated everything I’ve put on paper.

“Write what you have to say. Even if it’s nothing,” he told me. I told him that the thing of it was, I couldn’t decide what I wanted to say. “Sometimes writing about nothing is liberating.” And then I got the real idea. “I’ll write about how I can’t write about Jeremy Lin..” “Exactly.” “He’s driven me to the point where I literally have nothing to say.” (If you want to listen to a podcast where I alternatively yell things that make little to no sense and struggle for words while trying to describe Jeremy Lin and his impact on me, New York, the Knicks, world peace, World Peace and the cast of Glee, click this link.)

What is there left to say about Lin that hasn’t already been said, and said well? Every time I tried and failed to write about Lin, it was mostly because I kept feeling like I was writing something that someone else had already written and written well. There’s been such an avalanche of fantastic writing about Lin and everything that’s gone on around him.

Every angle imaginable has been covered. His effect on the Asians and Asian Americans? For one, I’m not Asian, and I couldn’t do it intelligently. Besides, Danny Chau’s been done, done that, in incredible fashion. Statistical analysis? That’s what True Hoop is for. Could anyone have predicted this? Someone did. Visual and video breakdowns? Mike Prada and Sebastian Pruiti did those. How can he fit with Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire? Matt Moore had his own idea. What effect has he had on the Knicks? Done. On Mike D’Antoni specifically? Howard Beck did wrote on it. The Harvard thing. The turnovers. The puns.

Honestly, what more is there to say when after a decade of despair and depression, the guy who finally, mercifully turns around the fortunes of your favorite team isn’t Amar’e Stoudemire, isn’t Carmelo Anthony, isn’t Tyson Chandler but rather is an undrafted, unheralded, unknown, Asian-American point guard from Harvard who was cut by two teams before the season even started and was about to be cut again if not for Baron Davis having yet another setback in his rehab?

Should I write about how he was sleeping on his brother’s couch before all this craziness happened? What about how Melo may or may not have been the one who told D’Antoni to give the kid some playing time? His relationship with Yao Ming? Hid admiration for Jason Kidd, another Bay Area point guard?

What do you write about an international sensation who lights the sports world on fire over the span of two weeks? Should I really keep comparing his court vision to Steve Nash’s? His attack dog style to Derrick Rose? His flair to Magic Johnson? How many more times can people read about Lin-Chandler pick-and-rolls still being the primary action and how Carmelo lurking on the weak side for mid-range jumpers and isolations against rotating defenders can actually be a good thing? About how he saved Mike D’Antoni’s job? How he saved the Knicks’ season?

Can I really go on and on about the effect he’s had on Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert, who have been freed up to simply play defense, slash to the hoop and generally wreak havoc in the open court? How he’s made useful players out of guys like Jared Jeffries and Steve Novak? How Jeffries has become a confident and (gulp) competent player on offense while still staying a force on defense and Novak can’t stop, won’t stop raining threes?

What about how the Knicks are fun again, for the first time since the 1970s? How, for the first time in my life, the Knicks are appointment television not because they’re a laughingstock, but because they’re one of the most entertaining teams in basketball? (Seriously, if you think the 90′s Knicks, the guys I grew up on and will love til the day I die, were fun and entertaining… well, I just don’t know what to do with that. Ewing, Starks, Mason, Oakley, Harper, Davis, Ward, Houston, Sprewell, Camby, LJ, Riley (ugh), Van Gundy?… those guys were crazy fun to root for, not so much to watch.)

Should I write about his crunch time heroics? How he stared down the Raptors and drilled a three right between the eyes? How he lined up Dirk Nowitzki and dropped one in his face? How he did the same to Shawn Marion? How he managed to upstage Kobe Bryant in Madison Square Garden? How he outplayed Deron Williams, John Wall and Devin Harris in less than a week? How he set a new record for most points scored in the first “X” starts of a career seemingly every night?

How do you write about the guy who undeniably OWNS New York City right now not being the Super Bowl MVP – Eli Manning – or the captain of the best team in hockey – Ryan Callahan – but the guy who was the Knicks’ 4th string point guard no less than three weeks ago?

I can’t find anything new to say about Jeremy Lin. Except this: for the first time in my life, as anyone who knows me well can attest, I’m speechless. I have nothing more to say.

Photo via Marc Duncan, Associated Press

It usually happens later. For Shaun Livingston, however, it happened early – too early – in what should have been a long, illustrious NBA career. It, of course, is the transition from being a present or future franchise centerpiece to being a capable and important role player. Most often, players have to make this transition due to a debilitating injury – or simply old age – that robs them of their all-world skill.

It’s something that many players struggle with; Allen Iverson refused to subjugate his game and flamed out of the league. Stephon Marbury couldn’t handle not being the focal point of a team.

Others, though, attack the task with zeal. Tracy McGrady transitioned from All-NBA small-forward to backup point guard and offensive facilitator. It took him a few years, five teams and a bunch of knee and back injuries to get there, but he did it. Grant Hill was one of the best players in the league in Detroit and Orlando, but injuries sapped his explosiveness and derailed much of his career. Since landing in Phoenix, he’s excelled as a premier wing defender and fill-in-the-blanks guy. Tim Duncan has slid gracefully into a secondary role in San Antonio after so long being the focal point of everything the Spurs wanted to accomplish.

We constantly praise those that are capable of making this transition, deriding those who can’t while at the same time ignoring how difficult it must be. Just how humbled by your declining talent or lack of physical capabilities do you have to be in order to recognize that you can no longer do what you once could? And then, even after that realization, how hard is it to inhabit a new role so different from the one you occupied for most of your life? How ego-less do you have to be to make such a transition? We, as fans and consumers, assume and expect that players will do everything in their power to subjugate their game for the betterment of the team and for the elongation of their careers while often declining to see the bigger picture.

“Allen Iverson would be so good as a secondary player if he would just take less shots and become more of a distributor,” we’d say. “His quickness and his court vision could allow for him to create so many open shots for teammates,” goes the narrative, as we don’t stop to think about whether taking the attack dog mentality out of Iverson would completely and permanently diminish is effectiveness. “T-Mac is such a good passer, such a smart player. He’s long and strong and quick. He can use that to his advantage and become a point forward and defensive stopper,” we opine, while ignoring the fact that he’s likely never played either role in his life. Necessity and circumstance often force players into roles they never imagined having, and it’s only the strongest among them – mentally – that are able to succeed.

Livingston, once a future star for the Los Angeles Clippers, has developed into a steady backup guard for the Milwaukee Bucks this season after playing well in the same role for the Charlotte Bobcats last year.

But let’s rewind for a minute. Livingston was supposed to be a superstar. The long, lanky, 6-foot-7 point guard reminded many scouts of a young Magic Johnson, and with reason. Livingston’s passing, his vision and his creativity were unparalleled in his class. He played the game with a youthful exuberance that few others could match. He was named co-MVP of the McDonald’s All-American Game as a high school senior in 2004, and was hailed as a top 5 draft pick and potential franchise savior.

The Clippers made him the 4th overall selection in the 2004 NBA Draft. They already had Sam Cassell on their roster, so Livingston was their backup point guard and sometimes shooting guard. He struggled a bit with injuries through his first two seasons, but was still a valuable contributor on the 2005-06 Clippers team that made a surprise appearance in the playoffs. Livingston played pretty well in the playoffs that year, putting up averages of 7.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.8 assists in 27.7 minutes per game off the bench.

The 2006-07 season finally saw Livingston beginning to live up to his endless potential. He started over half the Clippers’ games and was playing nearly 30 minutes a night, averaging just over 9 points and 5 assists per. He was shooting a career-high 46% from the field. He was rebounding more, turning it over less, taking smart shots and getting the Clippers into their offense. On February 23, 2007, Livingston dished out a career-high 14 assists against the Golden State Warriors. Things were looking up for the young man from Peoria, IL. Little did he know that just three days later, everything would change. If you’ve already seen it, I urge you not to watch the video below. If you haven’t, prepare your eyes for one of the most gruesome sports injuries ever (Livingston’s injury comes at the 1:51 mark, I was unable to find any singular clips on YouTube).

Livingston’s knee was shot. He tore his ACL, MCL, PCL and lateral meniscus and dislocated his patella and tibia-femoral joint for good measure. His career as we knew it was over right then and there, almost before it started. Livingston never played for the Clippers again. He bounced around the league over the next few years, catching on here and there, teams hoping they could tap into that limitless potential he once had, but it was for naught. Livingston wasn’t the same player, and he never would be. He was signed by the Miami Heat and traded 4 games later to the Memphis Grizzlies. Memphis waived him on the spot.

He then landed with the Tulsa 66ers, the D-League affiliate of the Oklahoma City Thunder, eventually impressing them enough to earn a call up back to the big team. He played sparingly in 8 games and was mildly effective. He appeared in just 10 games the next season before being waived again. Livingston then landed in Washington, where he played out two consecutive 10-day contracts before being signed for the rest of the season. He was on his way back.

In 26 games and 18 starts for the Wizards in the 2009-10 season, Livingston averaged 9.2 points per game on 53.5% shooting and  chipped in 2.2 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game for good measure. He played well enough to earn himself a 2-year guaranteed contract with the Charlotte Bobcats for $7 million, covering the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons. Livingston appeared in a career-high 73 games for the Bobcats last season. He played less minutes, but he made the most of them; he was no less effective than he was in his short stint with Washington the year before. His per-36 minutes numbers were some of the best of his career.

Livingston’s in Milwaukee now, mostly splitting his time backing up Brandon Jennings at the point and Stephen Jackson and Carlos Delfino at the 2-guard spot. He’s logging 23 minutes a game and has actually started 18 of the Bucks’ 31 contests. Even in games like yesterday’s against the New Jersey Nets where he struggled from the field, Livingston is finding a way to make an impact. Despite a 1-for-9 shooting line, he still managed to tally 10 points, 3 rebounds and 6 assists in his 34 minutes in a 7-point Bucks victory. In Milwaukee’s shocking comeback win over the Miami Heat last month, the game that saw Brandon Jennings go off from the three-point line, Livingston put up what was possibly his best line of the season with 10, 5 and 5, and 2 steals as the cherry on top.

Every once in a while, he gives us a blast from the past.

He’s not a building block. He’s not a centerpiece. He’s just a guy that fits in. And that’s okay. Most of us are just happy to see him back out there.

Welcome back to the new series here at Hardwood Paroxysm, You Better Recognize. Each week, I’ll take a look at a specific aspect of a specific player’s game and tell you just how and why a player has been so successful (or unsuccessful). Last week, I covered Tyson Chandler’s inspired defense. Today, we stay in the Atlantic Division and look at how Lou Williams uses off-ball screens to free himself for open looks.

It’s easy to overlook Lou Williams. He plays for the Philadelphia 76ers who, despite being located in one of the largest media markets in the country, don’t really feel like a big market team. After all, superstars aren’t falling all over themselves to play in Philly like they are for Miami, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago or even Brooklyn. The Sixers still sit atop the Atlantic Division standings, yet you wouldn’t know it based on the media coverage of the division. Everything is all about Linsanity, or Dwight Howard possibly going to the Nets or Boston shopping Rajon Rondo. Yes, there was that one week (one day, really) where everyone talked and wrote about the Sixers for a little while, but the stories were mostly of the, “Can they really sustain this?” variety.

When the Sixers do get attention, it’s mostly heaped on other players, and Lou is often the odd man out. Andre Iguodala is Philly’s All-Star, their best player, their leader. He does a little bit of everything out there on the court, and he’s really put it together to have a career-best year. He’s entirely deserving of all the attention and admiration he’s getting this season. Thaddeus Young has received vocal praise from head coach Doug Collins for his activity on defense and the way he defends the pick-and-roll. Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner are the young back court tandem of the future; nearly everyone has high hopes for them. Elton Brand, despite his bloated salary, is still counted on to be a steadying veteran presence. Spencer Hawes’ early season break out got a bunch of pub, but that spotlight has since faded away due to injury.

Williams, meanwhile, may just be the most important player on the team. His 16.0 points per game leads the Sixers, and if he keeps that up through the full season, he’d be the first bench player to lead his team in scoring since Dell Curry in the 1993-94 campaign. He’s a leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate for sure (ESPN’s Marc Stein handed it to him as part of his mid-season awards), even if James Harden is still the favorite (our own Matt Moore picked him at his day job). He’s averaging career highs in PER, Usage Rate, WS/48, and AST% while turning it over less than ever before. In fact, of the top 15 players in the NBA in Usage, he’s turning the ball over less than any of them.

Down the stretch of games, Lou’s Philly’s de facto go-to guy, and with good reason. The man is a legitimate crunch time killer. He’s shooting 56.4% from the field in the last three minutes of 4th quarters this season according to Basketball-Reference, and NBA.com’s Stats Cube says he is averaging 33.5 points per-36 minutes in the clutch (“clutch” being defined as the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or OT, game within 5 points). His usage rate climbs 7% in the clutch, and he justifies it by hitting shots at a 5% higher clip and posting a TS% more than 12 points above his season average. He’s also getting to the free throw line in the clutch at nearly double the rate he does during the rest of the game, and hits at his usual 80+%, a huge asset at the tail end of games.

One reason he doesn’t get much attention is that Williams’ game has very little flash to it. You won’t often find him dunking on people’s heads or shaking them up with a crazy crossover dribble. He goes about his business much more quietly than that. He’s subtle. He uses angles, reads the defense and picks his spots. Not many people appreciate the art of reading the defender’s route and flaring into the corner after coming off a screen instead of curling around up top. It’s not often that you see guys revered for the way they use screens to get themselves open. That praise is pretty much limited to Reggie Miller, Ray Allen and – in a since bygone era – Richard Hamilton. But Lou has all that mastered.

According to mySynergySports, Williams is shooting an utterly absurd 61.8% off screens this season and his 1.34 Points Per Possession (PPP) places him 2nd in the NBA. If you throw in shooting fouls drawn, he’s scored on 63.2% of his possessions (plays that end in FGA, FTs or TO) that ended with him using a screen. Philly likes to get Williams the ball off screens in two locations: just about the elbow on the right side and in the left corner. They basically just run different variations of the same two plays to get him the ball there, and it works exceedingly well.

The first play involves Williams starting either in the corner or on the low block and the right side and running his man off a down screen to catch the ball just above the right elbow. More often than not, he gets a wide open catch-and-shoot jumper. However, if his man tries to cut that off, he’ll occasionally either flare back out into the corner to create separation or curl the screen around and come to the middle of the floor and catch the ball on the move going toward the hoop.

Here’s the first version, where he runs his man off a down screen and releases a catch-and-shoot jumper from just above the elbow. This is the most common way the Sixers get Williams a jumper off screens.

The second and third versions, where he flares into the corner or comes all the way around the screen into the lane, aren’t as common, but are no less effective ways of getting open.

Philly has one basic set they like to use to get Williams a corner jumper off a screen, but they’ve altered the way it’s run since the beginning of the season. At the start of the year, the play looked like this:

The ball starts off at the elbow extended and is swung to the top of the key. As the ball gets swung around again to the opposite side, Williams sets a back screen for the man at the top of the key, who flashes toward what is now the weak side corner. Philly then uses the “screen for the screener” concept and sends Williams off a back screen of his own toward the strong side corner for a jumper. However, because Williams comes to a complete stop in the middle of the lane when setting a screen for the man at the top of the key, it gives the Knicks’ defense time to see him coming and rotate out to contest the jumper. Amar’e Stoudemire contests, but Williams uses a pump fake to get by him and drop a shorter jumper. The play works, but only because Williams was smart enough to use the pump fake to get Amar’e to bite.

They’ve since altered the play a bit. Williams’ route is very much the same, but this time he starts the play from the elbow extended and swings the ball to the top of the key. Here’s where the new wrinkle comes in; as the ball is being swung around, Williams fakes as if he will cut to the top of the key, the spot vacated by the man that he screened for on the earlier play, while knowing that he will come off a screen of his own and flare into the corner. This time, the jumper is wide open.

The defender doesn’t know Williams’ route, so he bites on the fake toward the top of the key, leaving him way out of position and trailing Williams. The screen puts even more space between Lou and his defender. It’s a simple adjustment made to get an excellent catch-and-shoot player a little more room with which to unleash a deadly jumper.

Welcome to the third edition (click here for the first and second editions) of Mystery Statistics Theater, a new series here at Hardwood Paroxysm. Over the next few days, Conrad Kaczmarek and I (Jared Dubin) will be attempting to do the previously impossible; we’ll be removing all personal bias from our conclusions. Here and in the subsequent editions of this series, this is what you’ll find: a comparison of the per-36 minutes and advanced statistics lines of two different players – one from this season and one from a randomly selected season – with no names attached. Our task was to decide which of the two players was better, or more valuable, or which we’d rather have on our team; whatever you want to call it, we chose between the two players without knowing who they really were. You can see the comparisons, conclusions and corresponding player names below. Enjoy.

(NOTE: We used per-36 minutes rather than per-game stats to marginalize and/or eliminate any differences in playing time. Additionally, we recognize that these comparisons do not account for team context or player roles. Rather, this exercise intends to demonstrate how simply looking at the numbers can lead you to conclusions that may seem counterintuitive, for better or worse, and that surface opinions and bias can lead to drastically different conclusions than simply analyzing the stats. Also, we whited out the player names so you can play along for fun! All stats current through February 16, 2011.)

Mystery #1 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

Like always, this is basically a toss-up. The stats are so incredibly similar except that Player B contributes more in the way of assists. It’s not a coincidence that Player B also turns the ball more often. I like my small forwards to be well rounded, but if the player simply isn’t being asked to work as a facilitator on his team, you can’t really fault him for having low assists totals. My assessment is that Player A is doing everything he’s asked to do. He’s scoring significantly more efficiently than Player B and has a lower usage rate. To me, it seems that Player A is playing his role pretty much perfectly in what seems to be an incredibly effective offense. I’ll lean towards Player A.

(Player A – Danilo Gallinari 2011-12, Player B – Paul Pierce 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #2 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

Give me Player B. There’s not a ton that stands out here other than the fact that Player B contributes a little bit more across the board. The scoring efficiency is not a big enough margin to really impact my decision. Player B gets it done on the glass and scores almost as well as Player A. I don’t feel strongly about my decision, but I’ll stand by it. Slight edge to Player B.

(Player A – Caron Butler 2011-12, Player B – Shawn Marion 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #3 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

Player A, you’re doing too much. With a usage rate of 32.7%, I’d expect phenomenal numbers across the board. You aren’t doing that. It’s possible that Player A is still a better player than Player B, but I don’t need my small forward using that many possessions if he’s going to score inefficiently and turn the ball over that often. Player B does most things efficiently, he just isn’t being asked to do so much. I’ll take Player B because there’s no way I want a guy on my team if he uses a third of our possessions and is shooting less than 40% from the field. And 4.3 threes per 36 minutes while shooting 29.7%? Get that all the way out of here.

(Player A – Carmelo Anthony 2011-12, Player B – Marvin Williams 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #4 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

Very similar in basically every category. The only difference that stands out to me is the scoring efficiency (FG%, TS%, eFG%). When two players are essentially equal in counting stats across the board, I’ll take the guy who shoots a better percentage and doesn’t waste as many possessions. That was easy. Give me Player B  – please and thank you.

(Player A – Luol Deng 2011-12, Player B – Gerald Wallace 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #5 – Created by Conrad, Analyzed by Jared

Player A is my guy here. He’s not as good of a rebounder or play-maker and shoots slightly worse from three (not enough for me to really quibble about, 41.2% is really good), but he does just about everything else better. He’s more efficient with his offensive production (see: higher TS%, eFG%, O-Rtg), especially from inside the arc – Player B’s 3P% is higher than his FG% – and while the two players have the exact same defensive rating, Player A gets more steals and blocks. Player A also gets to the line more often and shoots a better percentage when he’s there. His offensive efficiency and defensive counting stats are enough to override the disadvantage in the rebounding and assists department.

(Player A – Nic Batum 2011-12, Player B – Marvin Williams 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #6 – Created by Conrad, Analyzed by Jared

This time I’m going with Player B. His vastly superior defense (99 D-Rtg as opposed to 112 for Player A) pretty much made the decision for me, but there are other things to like here too. He’s got advantages in TS% and eFG%, gets to the line 20% more often and shoots 8% better when he’s there. And then there are those assists; look at that advantage in the play-making department. Player B is so versatile. He scores, rebounds, defends and distributes, and that’s why he’s my pick.

(Player A – Michael Beasley 2010-11, Player B – Paul Pierce 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #7 – Created by Conrad, Analyzed by Jared

I’m going with Player B again. These guys are pretty similar in that their stats are SO close, but Player A’s got the edge in everything except for 2-point field goals. Go through those stats. He’s got the advantage in every single one. He shoots better from three and from the line, rebounds more, gets more assists, steals and blocks, turns it over less and plays better defense. He even fouls less often. Now if we could just get him to work on making shots from inside the arc… Either way, he’s my guy.

(Player A – Luol Deng 2010-11, Luol Deng 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Photo via Getty Images

This is the first edition of a series I started on my own site (samples here and here) and I will now be continuing here at Hardwood Paroxysm, You Better Recognize. Each week, I will take a look at one specific aspect of a specific player’s game and break down why he has been so successful (or unsuccessful) in that given area.

When I set out to write this piece, it originally had a different title: You Better Recognize: Tyson Chandler’s Post Defense. The plan was to break down exactly how the Knicks center has been smothering people defensively, especially on the low block, and I was going to provide all the reasons how and why he does what he does. But after watching the game film, I didn’t think that accurately captured the impact that he’s been having on the defensive end, so I decided to expand it and came up with a new title: You Better Recognize: Tyson Chandler’s Post and Isolation Defense. The plan was still the same; break down exactly how and why Tyson has been so successful guarding on those type of plays. But again, I didn’t feel this was sufficient. So I expanded the scope and the title of the post again: You Better Recognize: Tyson Chandler’s Post, Isolation and Help Defense. Again, I wasn’t satisfied with that. It was at this point that I came to the realization that I couldn’t focus on one specific aspect of Chandler’s defense if I wanted to capture the essence of just how important he’s been to one of the surprisingly best defensive units in the NBA. To fully appreciate Chandler’s impact on the defensive end, we have to look at the whole picture.

You can’t really grasp Chandler’s effect on the Knicks’ defense without understanding where they came from, where they are now, and how they got there. The Knicks, especially under Mike D’Antoni, have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA for quite some time. Since the 2002-03 season, the Knicks had ranked 22nd, 18th, 25th, 27th, 26th, 30th, 24th, 27th and 21st in defensive efficiency in the years leading up to this one. It was that fact that led to the Knicks’ decision to use the amnesty provision on Chauncey Billups and go after Chandler. With Tyson in tow, the Knicks sit comfortably in the top 10 in defensive efficiency, currently at 8th according to ESPN’s John Hollinger (HoopData also has them at 8th and Basketball-Reference has them at 6th).

If you’ve been watching or following the Knicks at all this season, you already know about their “switch on every pick unless you are absolutely 100% positive that both you and the other man involved in the action can stick with your man and you better be sure so just switch anyway” style of defense. Chandler is the key to making the whole thing work. When the opposing team gets Chandler and a guard or wing to switch, Chandler is counted on to do a bunch of different things: 1. pick up the guard or wing who has the ball, 2. help out the guard who picked up his man if the ball gets entered into the post, 3. recover in time to challenge a shot if the ball gets kicked back out to the perimeter and 4. keep an eye on everyone else on the court so he can come over for a help-side challenge or block because the Knicks usually play at least 2 or 3 below-average (at best) defenders at a time. That’s a lot to handle for one player, and Chandler is asked to do it all on a pretty routine basis. The Knicks put so much weight on his shoulders because they have confidence that he can handle it, and they’re right, at least so far.

Chandler has had to pick up a guard or wing player in isolation off a switch 30 times (or more accurately, the possession has ended with him defending a guard or wing player in isolation off a switch 30 times) and the results have been spectacular. Those players are 7-for-27 (25.9%) from the field with 1 turnover and have drawn just 2 shooting fouls. The reasons he’s been so successful defending these players on switches are simple: positioning, footwork, reach and intimidation. Quite simply, many of these players are scared that if they try to take Chandler to the basket, they’ll get their shot blocked, so they barely even try. Chandler recognizes this and generally plays off them when he gets caught guarding them on a switch. He gives them just enough room to make them think they can raise up and splash a jumper, but by the time they’ve started their shooting motion and have the ball ready to release, Chandler’s hand is right in their grill. This causes them to fade away so they don’t get blocked, which changes the trajectory of the ball and forces a miss (even most of the made baskets against Chandler in isolation are fade-away jumpers). Watch below as that exact sequence happens with Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo.

Chandler is able to bait both Gallo and Rondo into shots that he knows they likely won’t be able to make because of his ability to close out and challenge due to his extremely long reach. He’s often able to do the same thing with forwards and centers, who are themselves 7-for-20 (40%) from the field with 4 turnovers and just 1 shooting foul drawn on Chandler in isolations. Here, DeMarcus Cousins and Byron Mullens fall victim to this.

The way to victimize Chandler on isolations is to know that he likes to give you space and then jump right into you and challenge, and thus get him to bite on a pump fake. Because he’s so aggressive in challenging jumpers in these situations, sometimes he can get caught biting. Danilo Gallinari (after he had already missed a fade-away earlier in the same game, the video shown above) and Andrea Bargnani get Chandler this way.

While his job is much easier when he’s defending the post rather than isolations, that doesn’t make the work Chandler is doing down there any less impressive. Opponents score on Chandler out of the post just 38.1% of the time according to mySynergySports. One reason Chandler’s post defense is so effective is because he expertly avoids fouls. He’s been called for a shooting foul on just 7 of the 84 post-up opportunities against him. Conversely, he has forced a turnover on 18 of the 84 post-up possessions he’s been the defender on. That’s nearly a 2.6-to-1 turnover to foul ratio, which is ridiculously excellent.

Playing post defense with your hands, either swiping at the ball or trying too hard to block the shot, is a very easy way to get called for a foul. That’s why the other big thing to notice with Tyson’s post defense is that while many (maybe even most) post defenders play defense with their hands, Tyson defends almost entirely with his feet and his body until the very last second when he’s challenging a shot, and then he goes straight up rather than bringing his hands and arms down on the offensive player. Shuffling your feet to stay in front of your man and using your lower body to create leverage aren’t flashy skills that get you noticed by All-Star voters, but they’re vitally important to playing post defense, and Chandler has them in spades.

Watch him below against Kevin Love, one of the NBA’s best scoring big men. It’s not Chandler’s best effort challenging a shot, but he stays low, moves his feet and his body, and doesn’t let Love get good enough position to drop the hook shot right in.

This play, against Utah’s Al Jefferson, perfectly exemplifies Chandler’s post defense. He doesn’t let Jefferson get good position directly on the block; Jefferson catches the ball three or four steps outside the lane, which already puts him at a disadvantage. He has to go pretty far to get to the hoop for a post-up opportunity. Chandler doesn’t reach, doesn’t poke. He just shuffles his feet, keeps his leverage, and blocks the shot just as it leaves Jefferson’s hand. You can’t play better post defense than this.

One way to beat Chandler on the block is by executing a spin move. Chandler uses his leverage extremely well to force guys one way when they post him up, but if you are able to feign a move in that direction and quickly spin around to the other, you can catch him napping. It’s very rare the big man that is able to do this, but it’s happened a few times this season. Nikola Pekovic and Al Jefferson do it below.

In addition to being a master defending in isolation and in the post, Chandler is also one of the best help defenders in the entire league, especially when it comes to blocking shots from the weak side. The thing that jumps out at you about Chandler’s weak side help is his timing. Very rarely does he block a shot that gets floated into the air; almost all of his blocks are of the “swat it right out of the guy’s hand” variety. Because the Knicks have so many poor defenders on their team, Chandler’s ability to come help from any area of the floor is of tantamount importance. His tendency to pin his blocked shots against the glass or block them straight down also helps the Knicks keep possession of the ball and basically force a turnover, rather than just giving the ball back to the other team like many of the more flashy shot-blockers who like to swat the ball into the crowd tend to do.

Despite Chandler’s defensive prowess not being good enough to earn him a spot in the All-Star Game, the impact he’s having on this Knicks team is palpable. He’s been their best player through the first 2 months or so of the season, Linsanity notwithstanding, and it really isn’t close. Even during this amazing run by Jeremy Lin, the Knicks’ victories have been powered by their improved defense, of which Chandler is undeniably the centerpiece. The guy is an absolute monster, so you better recognize.

Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends. Come inside, come inside, for everyone’s (read: no one’s) favorite made up game: Compare, Contrast, Conjecture. As with last time I did this, if you can’t figure out the rules on your own, you probably shouldn’t be playing at all. Without further ado…

Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando Magic (7:00 PM EST)

Compare: Each squad boasts a former rebounding champion at the heart of it’s roster. For the Magic, it’s Dwight Howard. For the Wolves, Kevin Love. Love and Magic power forward Ryan Anderson are probably the two best outside shooting big men in the game today, and their ability to stretch the floor will challenge the other on defense. That shooting ability will pull one of the best rebounders on either team away from the basket, and it will be up to Howard and the upstart Nikola Pekovic to battle it out on the inside.

Contrast: The Wolves have Love locked up for at least three more seasons past this one, while Howard is seemingly flirting with every team in the league that will be vying for his services in free agency. Also, the Magic don’t have Ricky Rubio.

Conjecture: Minnesota snaps its losing streak and wins by 6

Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Bobcats (7:00 PM EST)

Compare: Both teams are members of the National Basketball Association and play in the Eastern Conference.

Contrast: Bobcats bad. 76ers good.

Conjecture: 76ers by double-digits

Utah Jazz at New Orleans Hornets (8:00 PM EST)

Compare: This time last year, each of these teams had a top 5 point guard (Deron Williams in Utah, Chris Paul in New Orleans) in the league on their squad. Each team traded that player for young players and draft picks to kick start the rebuilding process.

Contrast: The Jazz have gotten off to a surprisingly successful start to the year on the strength of their front line, Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap. The Hornets have struggled due to lack of quality talent and depth, and the injury to the prize of the Paul trade, Eric Gordon.

Conjecture: Jazz by 8

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks (8:00 PM EST)

Compare: The last time these two teams met, this happened:

Contrast: Miami already has their Big Three in place, while Milwaukee’s Brandon Jennings is supposedly scouting big markets to see where he wants to form his own when he’s a free agent in a couple of years. Of course, Jennings will have to find three players who all want to play with him in a big market. ZING!! Miami has won 13 of their last 16 games, including 5 of 6 since losing to the Bucks. Milwaukee has lost 4 of their 6 games since beating the Heat.

Conjecture: Heat by at least 15

Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (8:30 PM EST)

Compare: Both teams have 17 wins and sport one of the best power forwards in the game today on their roster. The Mavericks were last year’s champs, and the Clippers have staked an early claim to being one of the favorites in the West this year by beating the Thunder, Nuggets and Mavericks inside of a week recently.

Contrast: Last time these two teams met, Chauncey Billups played a prominent role and hit the game winner. He’s not out for the season. Last time these two teams met, Dirk Nowitzki had an uncharacteristically poor performance, and he’s come back stronger since taking some time off to rest his body and get back into playing shape.

Conjecture: Clippers by 4

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors (10:30 PM EST)

Compare: Both teams are coached by former NBA players. Both teams have excellent point guard play. Neither team plays very much in the way of defense. Both teams have a foreigner starting at center. The Suns’ 7-8 road record is identical to the Warriors’ 7-8 home record.

Contrast: The Suns’ foreigner who is starting at center, Marcin Gortat, is having the best season of his career with expanded playing time. The Warriors’ foreigner who is starting at center, Andris Biedrins, looks lost.

Conjecture: Suns by 7

Yes, I did just pick all 6 road teams to win on the same night. IT’S GONNA HAPPEN, OKAY!! And did you notice how I made it through this whole post without mentioning Jeremy Lin? Whoops.

Lion Face: Kobe Bean Bryant

It wasn’t the best performance from Kobe, but in the end, he used the last 2 of his 27 points to add yet another game winner to his resume. COUNT TEH GAME WINNERZZZ KOBEZ DA CLUTCHEST DA MVPZZZZ. RINGZZZ

Lemon Face: Rasual Butler

With 4.2 seconds to go in the game, Dwayne Casey called on Butler to be the trigger man for the out-of-bounds play with the Raptors trailing 93-92. Butler held the ball for too long before trying to call timeout and was issued a 5 second violation, turning the ball back over to the Lakers. And what kind of name is Rasual anyway?

Lion Face: Rajon Rondo

Rondo messed around and got a triple double, posting 32 points, 10 rebounds and 15 assists in the Celtics’ win over the Bulls. He was by far the best player on the court. He controlled the entire flow of the game on both ends, got great shots for himself and his teammates and made 10 of his 13 free throws. His was just the tenth 30-10-15 game since the merger.

Lemon Face: The Bulls’ bench

The quartet of Kyle Korver, John Lucas III, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik combined to shoot 6-for-23 and scored just 16 points in 54 minutes combined. Without Derrick Rose, the Bulls needed to get production from their role players, and these guys simply didn’t show up. Meanwhile, with Jermaine O’Neal sitting out, his backups Chris Wilcox and James Johnson combined for 23 points and 13 rebounds in 59 minutes played.

Lemon Face: The Pistons, all of them

They lost to the Wizards. By 21. At home. #FreeGregMonroe

Lion Face: JaVale McGee, Nick Young and John Wall

McGee put up 22 points on 13 shots and snagged 11 rebounds for his ninth double-double of the season. Young shot 8-for-13 and poured in 22 points. Wall was 1 point and 3 rebounds short of a triple-double and tallied 15 assists. He made several highlight reel plays and looked like he had some fun on a basketball court for the first time in a while. He had a few particularly nice dishes to McGee for high-flying dunks that we hadn’t seen in some time. This trio led Washington to just their second road win of the season.

Lion Face: LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh

I don’t have too much to say about this game because it was a truly terrible game to watch, but these guys had some nice round numbers to type up. LeBron had 23 points, 13 rebounds and 6 assists and was +26. Wade had 21 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists and was +24. Bosh, despite a poor shooting day, still made an impact as he had 14 points and 16 rebounds and was +22.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Lemon Face: Me

For not watching enough of the Warriors-Rockets fame to properly determine who should get Lion Faces and Lemon Faces.

Lion Face: Al Jefferson

He was dominant inside against a Memphis team that has some strong inside presence as he went 10-17 on his way to 21 points, 15 rebounds and 4 assists. He also blocked 2 shots.

Lemon Face: The Grizzlies

For wearing those stupid Oakland A’s uniforms again. For letting Gordon Hayward drop 23 points. For turning it over 18 times. For not capitalizing on a rebounding and free throw shooting edge. For losing by double digits at home to a team that came in with a 2-7 record on the road.

Photo via Santina Amato

Ray Allen is having the kind of season that pure shooters dream about, only better. At 36 years old and in the middle of a lockout-shortened and condensed season, Allen is shooting a career-high 49.6% from the field. He’s shooting 51.5% from three, also a career high. His free throw percentage is, as usual, above 90%. Add it all up and you get 15.2 points on 10.9 shots per game with a 62.3 eFG% and a 65.6 TS%. Individually, he’s playing his role on the Celtics about as perfectly as it can be played. What can’t be overlooked though, is how much help he’s getting from his teammates, who are doing an exceptional job putting him in a position to succeed on offense.

Allen has what some people like to call “in-the-gym” range. As in, if he’s in the gym; he’s in range. That, combined with his lightning-quick release make him nearly impossible to stop when he gets going; all he needs is a smidgen of separation and he fires up a swish. His teammates, namely Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Jermaine O’Neal, do a great job of creating that separation for him. There’s a reason that 139 of his 228 field goals attempted (60.9%) and 73 of his 113 field goals made (64.6%) have come after 0 dribbles; he’s always open.

The Celtics’ ability to create open looks for him is a big reason why he’s been assisted on a career-high 81.7% of his field goals according to HoopData, continuing the upward trend that started when he came to Boston 5 seasons ago. His percentage of assisted baskets has risen every season since he’s become a Celtic, from from 64.5 in 2008, to 69.3% on 2009, 72.8% in 2010, 74.0% in 2011 and 81.7% this year.

Allow for a slight digression here; Allen has really struggled when he’s tried to create his own offense this season. Isolations, post-ups and plays where he is the pick-and-roll ball-handler this season have accounted for 17.4% of Allen’s possessions according to mySynergySports and he’s shot just 28.5% on those plays. These are plays that often call for him to create for himself, and he hasn’t been very successful. For the season, he’s shooting just 34.5% on field goals where he has taken 3 or more dribbles before shooting. Conversely, he’s shooting 52.8% when he takes 2 dribbles or less. So letting his teammates get him open shots is a really good strategy for him. End of digression.

The primary way the Celtics get Allen open is by running him off screens, sometimes two or three times on the same possession. Coming off screens accounts for 36% of Allen’s possessions.

A staple for the Celtics involves Allen starting the play in the corner, getting a back screen (or two, or three) along the baseline and materializing in the opposite corner for a wide open three. It’s a simple, effective way to get a knockdown shooter a free look.

Another play has Allen start on the block and come off a down-screen, flaring it into the corner. The corner is Allen’s sweet-spot, and the Celtics often work to get him open looks from that spot.

The Celtics also set screens for Allen even when he’s not involved in the primary action. Sometimes they’ll have Rajon Rondo or Paul Pierce run a pick-and-roll as the primary action at the top of the key with Allen making a V-cut toward the top of the key and then getting a back-screen as he makes his way to the corner.

Allen’s active off the ball movement, Garnett and O’Neal’s picture-perfect (or extremely dirty) screens and Rondo and Pierce’s pin-point passing have led to lots of open shots and it has come together to produce 1.13 Points Per Possession (PPP) off screens for Allen, which places him 5th in the league.

The Celtics also like to have Allen spot-up off the ball when the primary action is a pick-and-roll or isolation for Rondo or Pierce. They’ll station Allen in the corner in order to space the floor, and if the defense collapses on Rondo or Pierce on the drive, they simple kick it out to Allen for a three. Spot-ups account for 19.6% of Allen’s possessions.

The scoring threat of Paul Pierce off the dribble and Kevin Garnett as a roll man often opens up the court for Allen to camp out along the three-point line. He’s been able to capitalize on the space created for him by shooting 49% on spot-ups and registering 1.29 PPP, good for 15th in the NBA. He’s made 18 of 38 spot-up threes, a 47.4% clip.

Another way Allen finds openings is in transition. He usually does this in one of two ways: he’ll either run directly to a spot on the floor while Rajon Rondo pushes the ball in transition and wait for a pass, or he’ll trail Rondo and come around behind him for a hand-off. Transition opportunities have accounted for 16.5% of Allen’s possessions.

The chaos often created in transition and Rondo’s (and to a lesser extent, Pierce’s) ability and willingness to find Allen wherever he is on the break have coalesced into a ridiculous 1.37 PPP in transition for Allen, 18th in the NBA. He’s shooting 65.7% in transition and has made 11 of 22 transition threes.

These three plays account for 72.1% of Allen’s possessions, and he’s shooting 53.2% on them. If you want to know why he’s been so successful shooting the ball, you really don’t have to look much further.

Photo via Flickr

The Denver Nuggets are the darlings of the NBA (or at the very least, of the NBA blogosphere) this season. Everywhere you look you see flowery stories about their unselfishness, their pedal to the metal, fun-and-gun style of play and their improved defense. Their aura is seemingly inescapable right now. Almost without fail, each of these stories usually point to one thing as the catalyst for the “turnaround” – don’t get me started on how it’s not as much of a “turnaround” as you might like to think – in Denver: the Carmelo Anthony trade.

While that may admittedly have been when this whole revolution started, those who think of Anthony’s departure as the sole reason for the Nuggets’ newfound ball-sharing and ball-hawking ways are missing another key point: that trade also resulted in the ouster of point guard Chauncey Billups, Denver’s other ball-dominant, laissez-faire defense player. The departure of Billups also came with the added benefit of an increase in playing time and eventual insertion into the starting lineup for his young backup Ty Lawson. Lawson earned his way into the starting lineup late last year and played so well that Denver decided to trade his competition, Raymond Felton (who came over from New York in the trade), to the Portland Trail Blazers for Andre Miller, with the stated plan being that Miller would be Lawson’s backup. And what a plan that has turned out to be.

Let’s start with Lawson. He’s the fastest player in the league with the ball in his hands this side of John Wall, which makes him the perfect fit for George Karl’s, “run first, run second, and when all else fails, run” style of play. Before you can blink, he’s up and down the court and has Denver into their offense. They get into their sets faster than any team in the league because Lawson is constantly pushing the pace and dragging his teammates with him in transition. Lawson is in the top 15% of all players in transition Points Per Possession (PPP) at 1.16 according to mySynergySports and is hitting on 64.5% of his transition shot attempts. (By way of comparison, Billups is at 1.04 PPP and is hitting 38.9% of his transition shots attempts.) He has also assisted on 37 baskets in transition, accounting for 28% of his total assists. He’s the engine that has Denver sitting at 6th in the NBA in PPP in transition at 1.16.

Lawson is particularly effective scoring early in the shot clock; according to 82games, 47% of Lawson’s attempted field goals come within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, and he has an eFG% of .530 on those shots. 6.2 of his 15.6 points per game come in the first 10 seconds of possessions. Because he’s such a threat to score early when he pushes the ball up the floor, he easily opens up scoring opportunities for his teammates. When Denver gets out on the break with Lawson leading the way, Danilo Gallinari and Arron Afflalo streaking down the wings and Nene crashing to the hoop, they’re nearly impossible to stop.

Whether Denver is running the break or in their half court offense, Lawson is entirely unafraid to attack the basket even despite his small stature. This season, he’s averaging a career-high 5.7 FGA per game at the rim, and he’s again connecting on an extremely high percentage of those attempts at 62.3%. This attacking mentality has led to Lawson’s career-high 3.8 FTA per game. However, it’s also the mentality that leads to him getting his shot blocked 13% of the time. He’s confident, but sometimes to a fault.

As well as Lawson has been playing, it might surprise you to learn that Miller has been just as good, if not better. Miller is averaging 11.1 points per game on 48% from the field to go with 7.3 assists in 30 minutes a night. He seems reinvigorated by Denver’s high-octane game despite never having been much of a transition player himself, and he’s having a terrific season. Though he’s doing an excellent job backing up Lawson as the primary distributor, he’s also been extremely effective when they’re on the court together and he’s playing off the ball.

Lineups featuring both Lawson and Miller on the court are averaging a +14.0 plus/minus per-36 minutes according to the NBA.com Stats Cube. Lawson runs the point when they’re out there together, so while Miller sacrifices some of his distributing duties, he takes and makes more three-pointers with Lawson out there and holds steady on the rest of his production. Lawson’s production stays pretty much steady since he’s still in the same role whether he plays with Miller or without. By contrast, he spent a lot of time off the ball when he was on the court with Billups last season, and his production suffered greatly.

While Billups has had an excellent career and was quite good steering the ship in Denver for a while, his style of play isn’t as perfect a fit for what Karl likes to do as Lawson’s is. Billups got them out on the break when there was an opportunity, but was also exceedingly content to bring it up slowly and play in the half court if the numbers weren’t right. Lawson is relentless, pushing the ball down your throat at all times, creating opportunities out of thin air. His lightning speed and aggressive mentality make him that much more dangerous in the open court.

There’s also the matter of defense. Miller has been pretty good defensively, but the Nuggets have been great as a team when he’s on the court. The Nuggets allow just 99.2 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor and he’s holding opposing SGs to a 12.9 PER on the season. Though Synergy’s defensive numbers give Billups a slight advantage over Lawson this year, his struggles defending quicker point guards are well documented, and that’s an area where Lawson has an edge. Additionally, Billups has spent much of this year guarding shooting guards, where his lack of speed and lateral quickness isn’t as big of a disadvantage as it was at the point, and his size has helped him do a better job. This line of thinking is reflected in last year’s Synergy defensive numbers, where Lawson had the advantage, as well as on 82games, which shows that Lawson held opposing point guards to less points, rebounds and assists per-48 minutes last season as well as a lower PER.

Both Lawson and Miller are better pick-pockets than Billups, as they are each averaging 1.4 steals per game while Billups sits at just 0.4 per game. Being that the Nuggets so often want to get out in transition, the ability to create extra possessions by stealing the basketball from the other team is a huge asset.

Between the improved offensive production, better defense and seamless fit when they’re on the court together, the Lawson and Miller point guard duo has been a huge upgrade for Denver over the departed Billups. Though it took the trade of Carmelo Anthony for them to realize what they had in Lawson, it’s turned out very well for George Karl and the Nuggets. That they were also able to turn Raymond Felton (who is – ahem - struggling, this year) into Miller is an added bonus, and one that has paid huge dividends so far.

Welcome to the second edition (click here for the first edition) of Mystery Statistics Theater, a new series here at Hardwood Paroxysm. Over the next few days, Conrad Kaczmarek and I (Jared Dubin) will be attempting to do the previously impossible; we’ll be removing all personal bias from our conclusions. Here and in the subsequent editions of this series, this is what you’ll find: a comparison of the per-36 minutes and advanced statistics lines of two different players – one from this season and one from a randomly selected season – with no names attached. Our task was to decide which of the two players was better, or more valuable, or which we’d rather have on our team; whatever you want to call it, we chose between the two players without knowing who they really were. You can see the comparisons, conclusions and corresponding player names below. Enjoy.

(NOTE: We used per-36 minutes rather than per-game stats to marginalize and/or eliminate any differences in playing time. Additionally, we recognize that these comparisons do not account for team context or player roles. Rather, this exercise intends to demonstrate how simply looking at the numbers can lead you to conclusions that may seem counterintuitive, for better or worse, and that surface opinions and bias can lead to drastically different conclusions than simply analyzing the stats. Also, we whited out the player names so you can play along for fun!)

Mystery #1 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

I’m going to have to go with Player A here. The two players are very similar, but Player A scores a bit more and even more efficiently than Player B. The steals and blocks from Player B almost swayed me that way, but Player A does what you want your shooting guard to do: score. Both guys contribute across the board so it’s close, but I’m leaning slightly towards the scoring ability of Player A. I’m no expert, but I’d also advise Player A to stop taking so many threes. You’re obviously not good at them (just 32.9%), so don’t take so many of them.

(Player A – Kobe Bryant 2009-10, Player B – 2011-12 Dwyane Wade)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #2 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

This is really a matter of opinion and of what stats you value more. Player A is really good at distributing the ball as well as scoring from the SG position. His FG% is pretty poor, but the TS% ends up being nearly identical to Player B. On the other hand, Player B grabs a staggering 8.1 rebounds per 36 minutes. That’s ridiculously impressive from your shooting guard. Because these guys are pretty damn close, I guess I’ll take the cop out and look at the DRTG to break the tie. Player B is grabbing a bunch of rebounds, not scoring a ton (but does it efficiently-ish), and seems to be better at defense than Player A. Ultimately, it’s a toss up, but I’ll go with Player B.

(Player A – Monta Ellis 2011-12, Player B – Evan Turner 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names 

Mystery #3 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

We finally get a comparison that I can definitively make a decision on. I’m taking Player A. Player B scores more, and I know that’s what you want from your shooting guard, but Player A shoots an ungodly percentage from 3-point distance, has a semi-ridiculous 61.6 TS% and does some solid work on the boards. Player B is certainly a nice player and the 4.1 assists per 36 minutes are nothing to sneeze at, but the more that I look at these stats, the clearer it is that I want Player A. This obviously has a lot to do with the team that he is on, but an ORTG of 115 and a DRTG of 98? Jeez. Player A all day.

(Player A – Paul George 2011-12, Player B – Jason Terry 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #4 – Created by Jared, Analyzed by Conrad

Once again, I’m going to have to choose Player A. Pretty even stats across the board as far as TS%, TRB%, and usage rates are concerned. The two things that stand out to me are the assist rates and turnover rates. Player A manages to score more per 36-minutes, dish out more assists, AND turn the ball over less often. That’s the guy that I want playing shooting guard for my squad.

(Player A – Joe Johnson 2011-12, Player B – O.J. Mayo 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #5 – Created by Conrad, Analyzed by Jared

This is tough. Other than assists and turnovers, these guys have very similar stats. They both shoot pretty well from the field for guards, and neither is a very good three-point shooter. Player A is slightly better from three, but takes way too many per-36 for a guy shooting that percentage. At least Player B recognizes it as a weakness and doesn’t take very many. Player B turns it over too much for my liking, but Player A’s defensive rating is a preposterously bad 112. Ultimately though, you want your shooting guard to be able to stretch the defense on the offensive end, and Player A is a better offensive player overall (111 to 101 advantage in offensive rating) and a better three-point shooter, so he’s my man. You can hide his defense through schemes, and his good positional rebounding is a plus.

(Player A – MarShon Brooks 2011-12, Player B – Dwyane Wade 2003-04)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #6 – Created by Conrad, Analyzed by Jared

This is a weird match-up. Player A seemingly has the advantage in every offensive category, but then you look up and Player B has a ridiculous 128 offensive rating and Player A’s is 12 points lower. This is basically a question of whether you like your shooting guard to be your primary offensive option (Player A and his 28.7 USG%) or a hyper-efficient shooter who blends in well with the team concept (Player B and his 21.5 USG% and 64.7 TS%). Player A’s seeming advantage in the play-making department might be due to the fact that he just has the ball a lot more than Player B. I’m taking Player B because it seems like he gives up 90% of the production on 75% the usage.

(Player A – Manu Ginobili 2007-08, Player B – James Harden 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names

Mystery #7 – Created by Conrad, Analyzed by Jared

Player B’s rebounding edge was almost enough for me to take him, because that’s a really good stat line right there. But if you think I’m going to pass up Player A and his 56.6% three-point shooting on 5.0 attempts per-36, you’re out of your mind. So give me Ray Allen (spoilers).

(Player A – Ray Allen 2011-12, Player B – Paul George 2011-12)

Note: Highlight the line above this to reveal player names