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The Palimpsest Of Kobe Bryant

February 1, 2012 in by with 2 Comments

I learned a new word in class yesterday. Palimpsest. It’s a page of writing that is reused by scraping off the earlier text. In the early centuries, parchment and papyrus were reused with a washing/scraping method. But the previous text never leaves the page completely. Beneath the most recent (and visible) text is the faded outline of past messages. The word has been used (as was the case in my class) as a way to observe the passage of time — the past will always have an imprint on the present, no matter how faint.

My professor compared it to an Etch-a-Sketch. You can shake a silly doodle away once it stops being amusing, but it’s never really all the way gone.

It’s an interesting word, isn’t it?

—

The Kobe System commercials have been a major plus for Nike. The brand found humor in Kobe’s intensity, and kudos to them for a successful campaign. While most of the commercials are hit-or-miss – which is largely contingent on the supporting megastar’s comedic chops, as it’s more or less for certain what we’re getting from Kobe Bryant: furrowed brows, intimidating stoicism moonlighting as sagaciousness, “You’re welcome.” —  the commercials that shine are the ones that highlight how nonsensical the system is. The Kobe System – and by extension, the Kobe Experience – isn’t something easily explained. The commercials perpetuate a mysticism surrounding Kobe that we’ve all just learned to accept.

When Kobe goes on one of his patented onslaughts of consecutive fall-away jumpers from anywhere on the floor, it’s hard not to toss your fears and concept of sense to the wind. It’s intoxicating what Kobe is capable of. And it’s scary to think that however much belief we have in his ability to dominate games, to play through pain, and to make the winning shot (and for the majority of fans, that’s quite a bit), the belief he has in himself engulfs it all. We don’t quite chalk it up to supernatural forces. We’re too aware of his will and work ethic to do that. Then again, we don’t exactly omit it entirely from the equation when we use superlatives like superhuman, or bloodthirsty. It’s just Kobe being Kobe, whatever that means.

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvW2MAtRgVs]

Level 2 of the Kobe System is Adaptation. To help Serena Williams reach higher levels of ascension, he tells a reworked version of the dinosaur extinction story with him playing the role of meteor and failure playing the role of the dinosaurs. The story: dinosaurs reacted, meteor adapted. Of course, this is kind of wrong. The meteor that (possibly) killed off the dinosaurs didn’t exactly adapt. It was on an inalterable course of destruction. There was no modification in the meteor’s trajectory that would have provided a different result. While his rhetoric was off, the message is 100 percent Kobe. On a game-to-game level, there is no adjustment to Kobe’s approach, regardless of whether he’s shooting 6-for-28 or 18-for-28. He is his own unalterable path. Apparently in the Kobe System, there is a level of success where adaptation means becoming impervious to anything and everything.

While that’s all true, adaptation – real adaptation – has undoubtedly played a significant role in Kobe’s legacy. Since the beginning, he’s done everything in his power to ensure that he plays the game the way he wants to play it. From graduating from sidekick to undisputed first option, bulking up to slimming down, tapping into his elite athleticism to being mentored by Hakeem Olajuwon on his post game, looking overseas for injury treatment to playing unbelievable basketball with a torn ligament in his wrist, adaptation has become a yearly challenge for Kobe to accept and obsessively dismantle.

We’ve seen many different Kobe Bryants in the past decade-and-a-half. But aside from cosmetic differences, has he ever deviated from his path?

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjBMznQDWJk]

Level 6 of the Kobe System is Beastion (which isn’t a word, but, you know, okay), which confuses the hell out of Kanye West. But when we begin to piece together the fragments of Kobe’s illustrious career, it all starts to make a bit more sense.

If we were to look at Kobe’s palimpsest, there would be 15 messages neatly written one below the other, almost indecipherable at the top, gradually growing in visibility. Then there is a 16th near the bottom in big bold lettering with enough space for more engravings. Each tier of text appears in a new language, but each appears to say the same thing: Destiny is mine and mine alone to control.

Different animal, same beast.

 

Rodrigue Beaubois: Making Progress

January 28, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by justinwkern on Flickr

 

Rodrigue Beaubois killed the Jazz last night. The statline: 22 points (9-15 fg, 3-5 3pt), six rebounds, seven assists, one steal, four (!!!) blocks, and two turnovers. More important than the numbers was how he did it — he started in place of Delonte West at the two, but when Jason Kidd had to leave with a sprained calf less than three minutes in, Beaubois became the Mavericks’ primary point guard. Coming into the season, his ability to play the point was his biggest point of concern. With Jason Terry, Vince Carter, and Delonte West getting minutes at shooting guard, he needed to show proficiency at running the team if he wanted to avoid again being a nonessential piece come playoff time. Not even three weeks ago, his shortcomings were under the spotlight.

“He’s got to work on his decision-making, I think we all know that, coming off pick-and-rolls, making the right plays, seeing the floor that’s sometimes problems for him,” Nowitzki said. “But I like when he plays hard, he makes stuff happen, and I like when he’s aggressive. Sometimes he has to find a better mix of driving and shooting and finding the open guy, but we need him.”

Via Carlisle Calls Out Rodrigue Beaubois, Needs More, 1/8/12

Against Utah, Dallas got what it needed. From Rob Mahoney’s superb recap at The Two Man Game:

 Beaubois’ full-speed reads on pick and rolls were a thing of absolute beauty. He previously would approach such sequences as strictly a two-man game, but with experience, Beaubois’ scope has widened. He sees the baseline cutter and the open spot-up shooter — the men that, in the flurry of addressing their compromise in coverage, the defense has forgotten. Beaubois may always be a scorer first and foremost, but this was a fantastic passing display on a night when it was sorely needed.

Via The Difference: Dallas Mavericks 116, Utah Jazz 101, 1/28/12

 

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akMMB-Rzv38]

We don’t know the extent of Kidd’s injury yet, but we do know that the Mavs aren’t averse to resting a veteran as a precautionary measure. If Kidd misses some time, it would present a golden opportunity for his backup. Beaubois never seemed like a selfish player; he just hadn’t exhibited the court vision necessary to make many plays for other people. I know I’m not the only one who fell in love with his insane speed, his penchant for highlight plays, and his scoring ability, but I also understood what Rick Carlisle wanted from him and why he wasn’t playing 30 minutes a night. Trust, savvy, and ball movement make the Mavericks’ offense go, so seeing this kind of progress from Beaubois is exciting. With Dallas still a work in progress and roles still being established, he has a chance to carve out a bigger role than we’ve seen early this season.

Friday night was a damn good start.

All Is Well When We Work

January 26, 2012 in by with 10 Comments

Tiago Splitter leads the league in field goal percentage, shooting an unreal 63.2 percent from the field. This wouldn’t have mattered much last year, when Splitter saw scant minutes here and there. But this isn’t last year. Splitter is playing significant minutes this season, and his play of late has been somewhat of a resuscitation for crestfallen fans coping with Manu Ginobili’s absence. Splitter is playing with confidence making plays that toe the line between “Finally! This is what we’ve been waiting for,” and “Wait, I had no idea he could do that.”

After 19 games, Splitter has doubled his scoring output from a season ago from 4.6 to 9.2 points a game. Splitter has scored in double-figures ten times, surpassing last season’s total of double-digit scoring outings (9) in less than a third of the games. These aren’t mind-blowing numbers, but if his last three games (17.6 points on 77.8 percent shooting, eight rebounds a game) are pointing towards a trend, the Spurs have not only found themselves an intriguing low post scorer, but a way to continue to stretch and ration Tim Duncan’s contributions to the team.

While his productivity has been off the charts, Splitter won’t win many hearts aesthetically. His post game is advanced, but lacks charm or grace. His hooks are a curious, curious thing. They have a seriously low trajectory, floating towards the rim mere millimeters out of reach for the defender’s outstretched arms. His hook shots, flip shots, and contested layups all share a common flatness. It’s definitely ugly, but to his credit, he’s been incredibly accurate with his array of shots. Splitter uses fakes and spins extremely well, but they are used to gain position and footing for an unsexy finish. Splitter doesn’t wear denim to be fashionable. He wears it because it’s a fabric tough enough to handle the rigors of his trade.

When he isn’t creating his own shot around the rim, he’s busy catching and finishing passes at an even more impressive rate. According to mySynergySports, Splitter has converted on 73.3 percent of his shots off of pick and rolls and cuts, which combined account for 42 percent of his field goal attempts. He has great hands and rolls to the basket fast and strong, as any Kobe System practitioner would. No one will confuse Splitter with Dwight Howard, but then again, they’re converting on pick and roll opportunities at a very similar rate.

Splitter’s recent string of outstanding performances should (if they haven’t already) lead to serious discussion about the allotment of minutes in the Spurs frontcourt. Being a much (much, much, much) better defender than DeJuan Blair, it’s become obvious that Splitter deserves to be a starter. Unfortunately the Spurs are forced to use the Splitter/Duncan tandem sparingly due to how pathetic Blair and Matt Bonner are on the defensive end. Playing Splitter and Duncan together is the Spurs’ best frontcourt pairing by far and increasing their minutes together would logically produce better results on the field, but it would inevitably bring about a Blair/Bonner duo, which is the scorched-earth policy of NBA frontcourts.

So while Splitter has been one of the Spurs’ best players thus far, the team almost can’t risk giving Splitter too many minutes. Their frontcourt is a delicate, imperfect balance with one competent defender to go with an awful one. Any injury or over-exhaustion of Splitter would lead to the complete demise of the Spurs interior defense. Though, if Splitter keeps playing at such a high level, the Spurs might want to consider playing their odds.

On Davids And Challenging Preconceived Notions

January 25, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo from blasaure via Flickr

There are people around the world who are incredibly gifted at playing the game of basketball. A majority of them never reach public consciousness because of their height deficiency. Basketball is a game open to anyone willing to take the time to learn it. But playing the game at the highest level often takes more than dedication. Mastery of the game’s tenets becomes secondary to the physical advantages that a select few have over the majority. Most basketball super-soldiers are built from tall, strong, long-limbed human missiles. That’s how elite-level professional basketball works and will continue to work.

There aren’t many players in the NBA with a listed height under 6’0”. While there surely have been a multitude of short players with enough talent to be successful in the league, the rigors of the NBA requires of its vertically challenged denizens a maniacal sense of pride and conviction. Short players won’t make it out alive if they aren’t absolutely convinced that they are capable of toppling giants.

We have evidence of such feats happening. Muggsy Bogues’ blindside block on Patrick Ewing and Nate Robinson’s freakish denial of Yao Ming are indelible images of David’s victory over Goliath. This season, 5’9” Sacramento Kings point guard Isaiah Thomas had an opportunity of his own.

From Steve Kelley of the Seattle Times:

In a game earlier this month, Kings rookie Isaiah Thomas got caught in a switch and was forced to guard Orlando’s all-star big man Dwight Howard in the low post.

Howard is 6 feet 11. Thomas is 14 inches shorter. This wasn’t just David and Goliath. This wasn’t a mismatch. It was a can’t-miss match for Howard.

“Here Howard was with the ball, one of the best post-up players in the league, and Isaiah stayed right with him, defending Howard the same way he’d defend somebody his own size,” Smart said Monday night in the tunnel underneath Portland’s Rose Garden. “Isaiah held his ground until help came and we were able to get the ball out of Howard’s hands.”

via Former Husky Isaiah Thomas proving he belongs in the NBA | Steve Kelley, Seattle Times (1/24/12)

The compulsion to exceed expectations and prove people wrong is a built-in mechanism for the shorter man, and it’s undoubtedly a key to Thomas’ surprising start.

Despite a proficient three-year career at Washington (and a particularly eye-opening junior season that saw his assist numbers double compared to previous years), the concerns surrounding Thomas on and around draft night were similar to past players of his ilk: too much of a shoot-first combo guard to succeed with such a glaring height disadvantage.

And yet, 17 games into the season, Thomas’ most promising skill seems to be his ability to find the open man, not his offensive firepower. Thomas had a career-high 8 assists in 28 minutes against the Portland Trail Blazers last night. Thomas probed the paint and found players camping on the wings. He was murderous in transition, bulleting passes to open teammates with ease. In an offense that doesn’t often share the ball well, Thomas has, for stretches, looked like the Kings’ most able and competent point guard.

Now, if he could only start making some shots.

Thomas is shooting an awful 30.1 percent from the field. An unjustifiable number, no matter how it’s dissected. As expected, Thomas’ lack of height affects him around the rim, where he converts at a meager 44-percent clip. Unfortunately, his percentages at the rim are by far his best anywhere on the court. More than half of Thomas’ attempts are 3-pointers, which thus far has been a tragic idea to pursue. He’s shooting 23.2 percent from behind the arc, and as seen in his 1-of-5 performance against the Blazers, he’s missing almost all of his threes on lazy closeouts and/or defenders not within five feet of him. It’s clearly not a consistent part of his game, and he’d surely be doing the Kings a favor by limiting the amount of 3-pointers he’s taking because it isn’t working at all.

Still, as the last pick of last summer’s draft, Thomas has been a pleasant surprise. Sacramento’s lack of a real point guard has given Thomas ample opportunity to show off his underrated court vision and passing skills. Last year, J.J. Barea made the severely-undersized combo guard in vogue, somehow. If Thomas’ scoring ability ever decides to come out from hiding, there could be longevity in his giant-slaying business.

The NBA’s Image Problem

January 25, 2012 in by with 3 Comments

Photo by Paul Keller via Flickr

Photo by Paul Keller via Flickr

They say that your character is who you truly are while your image is what others think of you. In the case of the court of public opinion, image trumps everything, and quite simply the NBA has an image problem in this country. Has the league come a long way since the awful post-Jordan, pre-Draft Class of 2003 years? Absolutely. However, the fact remains that if you asked the casual non-NBA fan why they don’t like the NBA, rarely will you get the response that they don’t like the game of basketball itself. More often than not, it’s because they have a negative stereotype of the league and the players in it. This frame of mind got me to thinking about how the NBA is like a fraternity in that way.

Now, I can almost guarantee that when I said the word “fraternity,” 95% of you who were not in one had the following image in your mind: 24/7 party, guys sitting around the “frat” house, disrespecting women, using the word “bro” 50 times a day, and generally doing nothing to contribute to society. Of course, if the only exposure you’ve had to fraternities is watching movies like Old School, Animal House, PCU, etc., I honestly can’t blame you. However, the part that you don’t see in movies is the chapters that have GPA’s over 3.0, raise thousands of dollars for philanthropies, do hundreds of community service hours, and contribute to the betterment of the community in numerous ways which aren’t going to make the school paper or local newscast. Why? Because those stories aren’t sexy or sensational enough. However, when there is one incident of a fraternity member getting into a fight, being disruptive in class, or anything else that reflects poorly on the Greek Community, you can be assured that incident will be the talking point all over campus. People are quick to point the finger and feel that their preconceived notions are confirmed. Ultimately, for every 50 good stories that actually occur with fraternities, all it takes is for one bad incident to ruin all that goodwill built up over time. The NBA is no different.

I was reminded of this when during the lockout I heard someone say the following quote, “I don’t care if the NBA comes back. It’s a league of a bunch of thugs anyway.” It was not my place to interject and engage in a conversation, but it got me to thinking. How is it that the NBA still has this reputation among the general non-fan? The NBA has made tremendous strides in the past decade in promoting its brand across the world. David Stern’s vision of making basketball a worldwide game has been borne out; long gone are the days of the United States dominating the Olympics and other international competitions as other countries have caught up to the U.S. talent wise. The NBA Cares program has raised more than $175 million while doing 1.8 million hours of service for the community since October 2005. Shaquille O’Neal has bought toys for underprivileged kids for years. Of course, these aren’t the stories that get more than a couple minutes, if any, of coverage on Sportscenter or in your local newspaper. However, when there is an incident like Ron Artest charging into the stands or Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton allegedly pulling guns on each other in the locker room, it dominates the sports cycle for weeks at a time and permeates non-sports news. And who hears these negative stories? The non-NBA fan which enhances the stereotype that they have in their mind. For every 50 good stories that actually occur with the NBA, all it takes is for one bad incident to ruin all that goodwill built up over time. Sound familiar?

There is no simple answer to prevent this from happening. There are going to be players in the league that do stupid things for as long as the NBA exists. As Albert Einstein once said, “The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.” Similarly, there will always be people whose opinions you are not going to change no matter what happens. Fortunately, there are people who may have a negative opinion of the league today, but they are open minded enough to change their feelings if someone provided them with evidence that their preconceived notions are not necessarily the truth. These are the people who the NBA must reach out to in order to begin to change the narrative. After all, I never in a million years thought I would join a fraternity when I came to college, but within two years, once my opinions had been completely changed, I was elected Interfraternity Council President at Ball State University.

When is the last time that you saw something about the NBA Cares program outside of a commercial when you were already watching an NBA game? If you somehow stumbled across this blog and aren’t an NBA fan, have you even heard of the NBA Cares program before a few minutes ago? This goes beyond just that program though. The NBA does a lot of things very well; getting the word out about the positive work that it does in communities and around the world is not one of them. There is no shortage of positive role models in the NBA today that the NBA has at its disposal to use in promotional efforts to get the word out about its product. Unfortunately, until it begins to use its assets effectively, the NBA is going to continue to fight an uphill battle turning the general public’s opinion back on its side.

This is Blasphemy. This is Madness. THIS. IS. NOT. HAPPENING.

January 23, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qR0Uke2XNI]

“As I told you a little bit earlier in the hour, I have some news to report about your New York Knicks.  The Orlando Magic, I will preface my statement by telling you that they have categorically denied this, but my sources tell me that they have inquired about Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire going to Orlando for Dwight Howard.  Let me confess to you that I’m torn.  From a basketball standpoint, it would seem you do that trade in a heartbeat.  You don’t teach seven-feet and you don’t teach the dominate and the skills that Dwight Howard has.  But I like Tyson Chandler.  I like the fact that he rebounds and defends.”

From ESPN reports that Magic have “inquired” about a trade of Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler for Dwight Howard via IamaGM.com quoting Stephen A. Smith on 1050 ESPN New York

I have a couple of pertinent thoughts on this report, the overriding theme of each of which is that this trade is just not going to happen.

First, I’m not sure why the Magic would want to take on what is increasingly looking like an uninsured albatross of a contract to Amar’e Stoudemire, nor why they would want to send Dwight Howard to New York to help the Knicks alleviate their roster construction problems. As Yahoo!’s Adrian Wojnarowski wrote over the weekend, the Magic are too good right now to just trade Howard and effectively give up on the season. Even shooting guard J.J. Redick is of the belief that this Magic team is the best one he’s been on since he came to Orlando six years ago, and they went to the Finals in 2009. It doesn’t make sense to break up this team, especially since the Eastern Conference is pretty wide open id Dwyane Wade’s injury lingers and the Miami Heat aren’t at full strength for the playoffs.

Second, and excuse me while I go into full Hubie Brown mode here, but: “You’re Otis Smith. You’re the General Manager of the Orlando Magic, and your previously much-maligned roster has gelled like never before at the beginning of this lockout-condensed season. However, you’re still not entirely convinced that your star center will want to stay in Orlando long term, and you’re also not entirely convinced that this hot start is for real. After all, this is mostly the same team from last year’s run, with Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis swapped in for Brandon Bass. You know that losing Dwight Howard for nothing will make fans go nuts, and might even cost you your job. You also know that while you’ve engaged in active discussions to trade Howard to the Los Angeles Lakers, they’ve yet to offer both Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the same deal. Now, what do you do?”

The answer to the question I just asked myself in – I think – the fourth person is this, “You leak it to a prominent media member that you’re considering trading Howard to New York for Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler to put pressure on a Lakers team that has already missed out on Chris Paul and seem him shipped to the other Los Angeles team, is struggling to create offense and has a fan base that might actually spontaneously combust if Howard was traded to the Knicks.”

And that’s what I think has happened here. Sometimes, knowingly or unknowingly, reporters get used for leverage. I’m not saying that Stephen A. Smith didn’t get this information from a credible source; I have no doubt that he did. After all, his sources have been on point about other unlikely things before – he was talking LeBron and Chris Bosh to Miami before pretty much anyone else, even if Alan Hahn, then of Newsday and now of MSG, officially broke the news – but to me, this smells of Laker-bait, and not much else.

Lastly, other than the team not being good, this is the most annoying part about liking the Knicks. They’re seemingly linked to every big time player who is mentioned in trade rumors, and there’s endless pining for players who aren’t on the team and likely never will be. That type of madness seriously needs to stop. Like, NOW.

Dealing With Disappointment: The New York Knicks

January 23, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q95Ba4znoVQ

So remember when I wrote about all the hope and possibility that existed the New York Knicks’ season? How I thought the Carmelo as point forward experiment could propel them into relevancy? Well… uh… yeah, about that…It turns out the Knicks (at least right now) aren’t a good team. Despite being the owners of the second-easiest schedule in the league to date, they stand at a dismal 6-10 in the midst of a six-game losing streak. Possibly the strangest part of all their struggles is that their defense really hasn’t been to blame. According to John Hollinger of ESPN.com, the Knicks have posted a respectable 98.7 defensive rating good for 11th in the league. On the other end of the floor, New York is producing only 96.2 points per 100 possessions (24th).

The offense has been nothing short of a disaster. The pairing of Amar’e Stoudemire and Anthony ought to be able to lead a team to at least above average offensive efficiency. Yet here we are 16 games in and we have yet to see anything resembling a team that can score the ball effectively. The reality of the Knicks hasn’t lived up to the lofty expectations, and as such Knicks fans have been searching for something or someone to blame. It started with the backcourt. Toney Douglas has been his usual not-quite-awful-enough-to-bench-entirely self. Iman Shumpert shows a lot of promise defensively, but offensively he has the awareness of JR Smith with about a tenth of the ability. Landry Fields has shown flashes but also appears to have no idea what confidence is, let alone any inkling of how to find it.

Once blaming the guards got old, the blame shifted to Stoudemire. His numbers have completely fallen off (41.3% from the field, PER of 15.12) and he continues to be a liability on the defensive side of the ball. Before you could even counter with the fact that Amar’e hasn’t been given the requisite opportunities to succeed, Knicks fans had already moved onto Mike D’Antoni. He was supposed to be able to get the most out of the players, to use his offensive mind to set up a deadly offensive attack. Now the fault has fallen upon Carmelo Anthony. Sure, he was playing great at the start of the season. But now due to health or maybe just a regression to the mean, Anthony’s ball-stopping, shot-chucking ways are firmly under the microscope. He’s ruining the flow to the offense, taking too many dumb shots, and apparently, the Knicks would be better off with Bill Walker . The storyline behind the Knicks’ failures has shifted so many times and become so confused, it feels as though the writers of Lost are involved.

Many things have been pinned down as “the reason” for the Knicks’ failures only to escape or be forgotten in the following moment. The fans want something solid and concrete to hold onto, but blame is too slippery or fluid to be captured or totally understood.  Often, failure doesn’t as much collect itself in one place as it does run from person to person, thing to thing, place to place, permeating the entire organism until it’s impossible to determine the source. Maybe it’s D’Antoni’s fault for being incapable of coaching this team to success. Maybe Melo’s attitude and selfishness have destroyed this team. Maybe it was the imprudence of trading the farm for Carmelo instead of simply waiting. Maybe it goes back to the summer of 2010 and signing a talented but flawed forward with ticking time bombs for knees to a huge contract. Maybe it’s James Dolan’s fault for demanding success now, rather than fostering an environment that would produce it. Or maybe it’s the fans’ fault for pressuring this organization into short-sighted decisions.

Whatever the case may be, New York needs to realize their problem isn’t simple enough to be housed by singularity. The symptoms are indicative of systemic breakdowns, rather than simple isolated issues. The biggest disappointment isn’t that the Knicks are failing, it’s that there’s no reason to expect that to change.

This Dwight Howard Situation Is Getting Complicated

January 21, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by stuckincustoms on Flickr.

 

…the Magic should play out the season with Howard. No trade, no concessions. That’s the franchise’s inclination now, and that’s what the New Jersey Nets and Los Angeles Lakers are beginning to believe will happen. All that needs to happen in the Eastern Conference playoffs are Derrick Rose and Dwyane Wade going down, and Howard could get the Magic over the top.

“Orlando is too good to trade him now,” believes one front office executive who has communicated with Magic general manager Otis Smith recently.

Via Magic Are Too Good To Trade Howard, 1/21/12

As soon as I saw the title of Woj’s latest on Dwight Howard, my mind went to Larry Coon’s chat from this week, where he painted a different picture for Orlando.

The Lakers have no shot without a sign and trade. The Mavs will be able to generate the cap space — they need to waive Vince Carter (half man, half salary dump) and Lamar Odom, who have partially-guaranteed contracts. They also need to use their amnesty waiver on Brendan Haywood. They’d then be able to give Howard a max deal. Word has it they want to move Shawn Marion for an ending contract as well, which would clear nearly enough to go after both Howard and Deron Williams, which would have to be considered their “Plan A.”

New Jersey will have enough cap room to retain Deron Williams and sign Howard.

So of the three, the only team that really needs the Magic’s help is the Lakers. The Clippers are in the same situation as the Lakers, if you want to include them on your list.

So if you’re Orlando, do you [count] on Howard needing them to facilitate a sign and trade, when two of his top three teams don’t need one, or do you get something for him while you can? Thought so.

Via Salary Cap Chat With Larry Coon, 1/18/12

Neither of them is wrong. The Magic are playing well. With the brilliant Stan Van Gundy, Howard, and reliable shooters, they are another contender’s significant injury away from the Finals. Their superstar won’t be traded tomorrow.

At the same time, would you pick Orlando to win the title this year? No. If you’re Howard, would you choose the Magic over your other options, assuming they don’t get you a sidekick? Probably not. Would Steve Nash be enough? I’m not sure.

Otis Smith has to be focused on finding a way to keep Howard around, but remain prepared to shift into trade mode if and when it becomes clear there’s no chance he’s staying. He has to be looking at deals that would send Howard away and deals that would make his team more attractive for Howard. He has to gauge how willing Howard would be to leave some money on the table by signing elsewhere without a trade. None of this is simple.

This is why the rest of the month is important for the Magic. They’re about to play six games in eight nights: home and away dates with both Boston and Indiana, plus New Orleans and Philadelphia on the road. As bad as the Celtics look right now, they usually play Orlando tough. The Sixers and Pacers aren’t the Heat and Thunder, but Indy has been about as good as the Magic and Philly has been better. This stretch will be a test.

If the Magic perform well to close out January, they can keep talking about keeping Howard around for a little while longer, at least. If they don’t, everyone is going to claim Howard’s uncertain status is affecting the team. Regardless of whether or not he’s actually a distraction, a losing streak here could make Otis Smith’s job a bit simpler. Can’t you just picture it? “Magic Lose To Hornets, Dwight Up All Night Texting With Kobe.” Barf.

2×2’s and You: A Comparison of PER and Usage Rates

January 18, 2012 in by with 5 Comments

Photo by Koen Vereeken via Flickr

If you have ever taken even the most basic of business classes in your life, there’s about a 95% chance you have come across the classic 2×2 matrix. Used often in the consulting world, these matrixes are used in order to demonstrate relationships between data points and used to make decisions based on how the points compare to the average. Player Efficiency Rating and Usage Rate are two advanced statistics commonly used to evaluate a player’s effectiveness and how he is being used.

For those unfamiliar with these two stats, a quick primer:

Player Efficiency Rating (PER): Developed by ESPN’s John Hollinger, PER is the overall rating of a player’s per minute statistical production. The league average for PER is 15.00.

Usage Rate: This is the number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes. Essentially, it is used to demonstrate how big of role a player has in a team’s offense. You can find the complete formula in this glossary. The league average is 19.15.

In the chart below, PER is plotted on the y-axis (vertical) while Usage Rate is plotted on the x-axis (horizontal). The 2×2 matrix naturally creates quadrants which can be interpreted as follows:

Top right quadrant: Players that fall in this quadrant rate above the league average in both PER and Usage Rate. This is where you’ll find your LeBrons, Kobes, and Durants of the league.

Top left quadrant: Players that fall in this quadrant rate above the league average in PER, but below the average Usage Rate. You can make the argument that these players should be getting the ball more on the offensive end. A sample of players that fall into this category are Ray Allen, Pau Gasol, and Gerald Wallace.

Bottom left quadrant: Players that fall in this quadrant rate below the league average in both PER and Usage rate. In a traditional 2×2 matrix, this is where you’d typically find the worst case scenarios, but that is not necessarily the case here. This quadrant will contain players who performing below average, but not heavily involved in a team’s offense which makes sense. Think Tyrus Thomas, Anthony Parker, and Joel Anthony here.

Bottom right quadrant: Players that fall in this quadrant rate below the league average in PER, but above the average Usage Rate. If there is a “concern quadrant,” this is it. These players are not playing well, yet still are heavily featured in a team’s offense. Michael Beasley, Austin Daye, and Samardo Samuels would like to say hello.

If you’ve been reading Hardwood Paroxysm for a while, you may recall Matt Moore conducting a similar study comparing these two statistics two years ago. I decided to take a different approach. Let’s take a look at each team, shall we?

ATLANTA


Will Joe Johnson ending up being the highest paid player from the Summer of 2010 ever stop being hilarious? You know, if you live outside of Atlanta that is. Second only in Usage Rate on the team to Josh Smith, Johnson’s PER is only good enough for fifth on the team.

BOSTON

Boston does a great job of getting the ball in the hands of its best players which is seen in Rondo, Garnett, and Pierce appearing in the upper right quadrant while Ray Allen flirts with it. It will be interesting to see how much of an effect the shortened season will have on the legs of the older veterans on the team; when April rolls around, I’d expect to see a dip in PER for The Big Three.

CHARLOTTE

Did you ever watch Animaniacs as a kid when they had the Good Idea, Bad Idea cutaways? Good Idea: Having your first pick in the draft with the highest Usage Rate on the team. Bad Idea: Having Byron Mullens with the highest PER on the team. The Bobcats 2010 playoff appearance seems like it was eons ago, doesn’t it?

CHICAGO

Derrick Rose is better at playing the game of basketball than you. Chicago has done a great job of getting the ball in the hands of their best player as Rose has the highest Usage Rate on the team and, as you would expect, is putting up one of the highest PER in the league.

CLEVELAND

The Cavs aren’t seriously going to challenge for the 8 seed this year, right? It’s scary that in a weak East, this is actually possible. Kyrie Irving has been better than anyone expecting thus far posting a PER of 21.4, good enough for highest on the Cavs. I haven’t heard from all of those people that thought the Cavs should have taken Derrick Williams first overall lately.

DALLAS

I’d say something here about Vince Carter’s below average PER, but I’m not sure I want to deal with the wrath of Mark Cuban. Lamar Odom is the biggest concern here for the Mavs right now with an above average Usage Rate and hideous PER. Time will tell if Dallas is simply not a good fit for him or he is simply struggling to adjust from a rough offseason.

DENVER

Denver has five players (Ty Lawson, Corey Brewer, Al Harrington, Danilo Gallinari, and Nene) who fall into the top right quadrant, tied for the most of any team in the league. They currently have no one who falls in the dreaded bottom right quadrant which indicates that they have been successful at getting the ball into the right players hands and having them produce. I wouldn’t go so far as saying Denver is a contender in the West, but they could pose problems for a team in the first round of the playoffs.

DETROIT

I’ve never met Austin Daye. I’m sure he is a very nice person. That being said, seeing his stats made me have a what I call a Mike Bibby Moment. Inspired by Bibby’s atrocious playoff performance last year, I define a Mike Bibby Moment as those moments when I say to myself, “I know I can’t actually play in the NBA, but watching (Player X) makes me really reconsider that thought.” Of 321 players in the NBA which qualified to have their PER calculated, Daye has the worst PER with a jaw dropping  -2.2. He is third in Usage Rate on the Pistons. You’re not going to believe this, but Detroit has three wins on the year.

GOLDEN STATE

The Warriors have played a brutal schedule thus far with nine of their first 10 games coming against likely playoff teams. Unfortunately, yet another ankle injury to Steph Curry has sidelined Golden State’s leader in PER for the time being. Expect Nate Robinson’s Usage Rate to go up in the next few weeks because, well, have you seen Nate Robinson play before?

HOUSTON

KYLE LOWRY OVER EVERYTHING! In all seriousness, Lowry has been outstanding thus far for the Rockets with a PER hovering around 25 and a Usage Rate just under 24. The rest of Houston? Decidedly average. No one is really being overused or underused. No one is performing spectacularly well or poorly. It’s the epitome of the Rockets over the past few years: too good to get a high draft pick, not good enough to be a serious contender.

INDIANA

As an Indianapolis resident, I came into this season with, what I thought were, irrationally high hopes for the Pacers. I thought that they had a ceiling of a 3 seed and could potentially make it as far as the Eastern Conference Finals. With Boston struggling mightily, the Magic potentially trading Dwight Howard, and me having doubts about Philadelphia’s ability to sustain their hot early play, suddenly a 3 seed doesn’t seem out of the question. All of this is happening with Danny Granger having the highest Usage Rate on the team, yet a below average PER. If he gets on track, watch out.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

I’m contractually obligated by the National Basketball Association to use the term LOB CITY in everything I write about the Clippers so I’ll get it out of the way now. The Clips have been as good as advertised thus far with their only losses coming at San Antonio, home against Chicago, and at Portland. Individually, the usual suspects Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are playing well, but Mo Williams has quietly been having a solid season as well with a PER at 16.74.

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Outlier: a point in a sample widely separated from the main cluster of points in the sample. See also: Bryant, Kobe. We’ll probably need to add that last part of the definition into the next dictionary update after seeing this graph. Fueled by his insane scoring streak of four straight games where he eclipsed 40 points and the fact that he leads the league in field goal attempts by a whopping 120, Kobe is on a planet of his own when it comes to PER and Usage Rate. Not that Kobe and his reputation for not passing the ball is 100% to blame for it, but everyone outside of Andrew Bynum and Bryant having below average Usage Rates is a telling sign.

MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies’ backup PG situation is a mess. Jeremy Pargo was playing so poorly that he was supplanted by Josh Selby who previously had four straight DNP-Coach’s Decision to his credit. If Memphis is going to make another deep run in the playoffs, they’re going to need someone off the bench who does not have the lowest PER on the team, a title both Selby and Pargo are battling for right now.

MIAMI

What? You were expecting something different? LeBron is making a bid for his third MVP in four years. Dwyane Wade, although hampered by injury in the past week, has been great as well. And Chris Bosh looks far more comfortable in his role this year compared to last year. Mario Chalmers having an above average PER with a below average Usage Rate is actually the perfect design for this team. His primary role should be getting the ball in the hands of the Big Three while his secondary role is contributing where he can offensively when one of them gets double teamed.

MILWAUKEE

The Bucks have always seemed like one of those teams that casual fans just sort of forget are in the NBA. Outside of Andrew Bogut, and even that may be debatable, nobody on this team really “moves the needle” when it comes to generating interest. Brandon Jennings is having a good season thus far along with Drew Gooden who continues his Pokemon-esque quest to play for every team in the league: Gotta join ‘em all!

MINNESOTA

You have to think you’d want more out of the number two overall pick in the draft than a below average PER and Usage Rate, but that’s exactly where Derrick Williams sits currently. Michael Beasley, another number two overall pick, checks in with a disappointing 7.41 PER, yet the third highest Usage Rate on the team. The good news is that the true stars of the team, Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, are playing extremely well this year, and they should serve as a terrific foundation moving forward.

NEW JERSEY

Kris is Mikhail’s kremlin and really doesn’t antagonize so he is absolutely needed. However, Humphries can’t escape Kim Kardashian references no matter where he goes and is getting booed in arenas across the country despite posting a respectable 19.88 PER. I’ll give him a reprieve in this post though. Just kidding. You know how the first sentence in this section made no sense whatsoever? Reread it and pay attention to the initial letters of each of the words.

NEW ORLEANS

“The Hornets are a perfect Ewing Theory candidate! Eric Gordon is going to be the future of this franchise! Don’t count out New Orleans!” That was a fun couple of weeks when people were saying that. Looking at the stats, the Hornets are another team who looks like they should have a better record.  With Gordon out though, they lack a true playmaker which contributed to a six game losing streak and nine losses in 10 games.

NEW YORK

Miami and New York’s charts are incredibly similar. The stars are in the top right quadrant as expected (in this case, Amar’e and Carmelo). A rookie point guard with a high Usage Rate and low PER (Norris Cole for Miami, Iman Shumpert here). One key role player with a high PER and low Usage Rate (Mario Chalmers, Tyson Chandler). And the rest of the team in the low PER, low Usage Rate quadrant. The difference is that Miami’s Big Three is far superior to the Knicks’ Large Two which is why Miami will finish well ahead of the Knicks at the end of the season.

OKLAHOMA CITY

If the Knicks were most similar to Miami, then Oklahoma City is the mirror image of the Clippers. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden are all having tremendous seasons thus far, and no one on the Thunder is being overutilized. Overall, I’d say that OKC has the ideal distribution and production they are getting out of their team; it should come as no surprise then that they are the heavy favorites to represent the West in the Finals come June.

ORLANDO

Ryan Anderson? Really? Yes, I know what you’re thinking. Anderson is having an incredibly underrated season as he is averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds per game so far and currently ranks second on the team in PER behind Dwight Howard. On the other hand, it looks like Boston got the better end of the Brandon Bass-Glen Davis deal as Davis is still trying to get on track in Orlando; he currently sits with a PER in the single digits.

PHILADELPHIA

The 76ers are unquestionably the surprise of the season thus far, but you’d never know it looking at the chart. There are so many weird things about their chart here. Only two players have an above average Usage Rate? All but two players on the team have an above average PER? Lou Williams has the highest PER on the team? This is one of those that I expect to see change significantly by the end of the year.

PHOENIX

Can we please take up a collection for Steve Nash and get him traded to a contender? If Larry Bird could find a way to bring him to the Pacers, he’d become remain a legend in Indiana. Instead, Nash languishes on the Suns who boast no fewer than six players with a below average PER. Aside from Marcin Gortat, Nash is getting next to no help, and time is unfortunately running out on his career. Free Steve Nash!

PORTLAND

I like this Portland team a lot, and I feel like they’re a classic example of their whole being greater than the sum of their parts. LaMarcus Aldridge is a bona fide All-Star and potential Olympian, but statistically is not getting much help from teammates. Raymond Felton’s January shooting slump (32.1% FG, 11.8% 3P% this month) hurt his PER. Despite this, Portland is still a respectable 8-5 on the young season.

SACRAMENTO

And on the other hand, you have a classic example of the parts being greater than the whole with the Kings. Sacramento has four players who fall in the upper right quadrant, zero in the lower right quadrant, and still find themselves only 0.5 game better than the Hornets, the worst team in the West. Of everyone on the team, Demarcus Cousins is playing well, but he’s clearly not what you’d call an ideal locker room guy. As they continue to work through the early season coaching change, I think it’s safe to say that the Cavs will not be getting the 2012 lottery protected pick Sacramento owes them from the JJ Hickson-Omri Casspi trade.

SAN ANTONIO

“Manu Ginobli has the highest PER in the league!”…is something you’d be happy with if you weren’t concerned about small sample sizes. The other pieces of San Antonio’s Big Three, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, continue to play well even as they are on the downside of their careers. The guy that jumped out to me the most is Danny Green who, prior to this year, I believe was best known for picking up LeBron’s laundry while in Cleveland (Note: Wikipedia is blacked out on Wednesday so technically you can’t prove this isn’t true). Green has performed well putting up a PER of just over 20, good enough for highest on the team of players who have played in more than five games.

TORONTO

If the Raptors could play the Cavs every game, they’d be one of the top four teams in the East. However, logistical issues make this an impossibility so instead they have four wins on the season. No one still refers to Jamaal Magloire as a former All-Star anymore, right? If so, let’s all agree to stop that. Deal? Deal. Toronto should have temperatures below 0 in January, not a player’s PER.

UTAH

Looking purely at the stats doesn’t exactly support it, but I can almost guarantee that if you asked Jazz fans if they want a redo on the Deron Williams for Devin Harris and Derrick Favors trade, you would get a resounding, “No!” While both Harris and Favors are hovering around the average Usage Rate and PER numbers, they have to be in infinitely better spirits than Williams who is counting down his days left on the Nets.

WASHINGTON

Oh. Oh my. So. Much. Blood. Washington is the only team in this analysis to not have a single player fall into the upper right quadrant. They have four players (Young, Wall, Blatche, and Crawford) which fall into the dreaded bottom right quadrant of over-utilized, underperforming players. They only have two players (Booker and McGee) above the league average in PER. Sadly, I don’t know of a way to quantify John Wall’s Dougie skills in order to make Washington look better, so I think it’s best if we just end here.

Tristan Thompson: Pick 4, Future 4

January 18, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by lobo235 via Flickr

What once started as a simple phrase has emerged as a collective feeling in Northeast Ohio over the past few years: “Only in Cleveland”. The entire psyche of a city can be boiled down in those three simple words. This tends to happen when your city’s three professional sports teams haven’t won a championship which currently exists (Super Bowl, World Series, or NBA Finals) since 1948 or a pro championship of any kind since 1964. We’ve all seen the “Cleveland Fail Montage” that various networks have queued up, ready to play as another Browns, Indians, or Cavaliers’ season comes to a crashing end. Like lake effect snow coming off Lake Erie in the winter, we all know it’s coming, but there’s nothing we can do to stop it.

Given the “Only in Cleveland” frame of mind, it seemed fitting that 2011 would be the year that the Cavs landed the first and fourth picks in the NBA Draft – a draft considered to be one of the weakest in recent memory. Of course, from the moment that the ping pong balls bounced the Cavs’ way and Nick Gilbert endeared himself to America with his, “What’s not to like?” quip, Kyrie Irving was tabbed as the top pick and point guard of the future in Cleveland. The more interesting, unknown decision was what the Cavs’ front office would do with the fourth pick.

The popular choice among fans was Jonas Valanciunas, the 19 year old, 6’11” prolific scorer from Lithuania. After all, the last time the Cavs decided to pair a number one overall pick with a Lithuanian center, it resulted in the winningest regular season team in the league in 2008-09 and 2009-10,  two trips to the Eastern Conference Finals, and the franchise’s only NBA Finals appearance before both departed for South Beach in the summer of 2010. Given these expectations, it came as more than a mild shock when David Stern stepped to the podium and announced Tristan Thompson from the University of Texas as the Cavs’ pick. Many Cavs’ fans had the same thoughts running through their head: Don’t we already have an abundance of power forwards on this roster? Why didn’t we take Jonas, keep him overseas, get another high pick this year, and bring Jonas over next year? While the JJ Hickson for Omri Casspi trade helped address the first thought, the second is still a valid question being asked today. However, Thompson’s play thus far has helped to alleviate a number of fans’ concerns, mine included.

Let’s start with the good. First and foremost, Thompson can leap out of the gym. Draft Express listed his vertical jump at 35 inches, and every bit of it has been on display in the early part of this season. Going forward, he will have to use this to his advantage if he is going to be an impact power forward as he stands an undersized 6’9”. On the defensive end, Thompson is recording an impressive 1.8 blocks per game. In addition to his raw ability to sky above the rim, his second jump ability is impressive as well. Unofficially nicknamed “Tigger” among the Cavs Twitterati for his tendency to bounce off the floor, he should be able to secure offensive rebounds and get put back opportunities at the rim.

Secondly, Thompson’s energy off the bench has provided a spark for what’s proven to be a productive second unit for the Cavs. In fact, you could make the case that the Cavs’ second unit of Ramon Sessions, Daniel Gibson, Alonzo Gee, Thompson, and Samardo Samuels has outperformed the starting lineup of Irving, Anthony Parker, Omri Casspi, Antawn Jamison, and Varejao as the bench unit boasts a better defensive points per possession allowed and plus/minus rating. Thompson reminds me of a younger Anderson Varejao whose role early in his career was to come in off the bench and make hustle plays that created opportunities for the other guys on the floor. Varejao was able to parlay his energy into a starting role within a short amount of time, and there is no reason why Thompson can’t do the same.

With the good comes the bad though, and I can already tell two things about Thompson so far that will drive Cleveland fans mad this year. The first is that he tends to be slightly overanxious as a shot blocker. While his tremendous leaping ability has led to some highlight blocks, it has also resulted in a multitude of goaltending violations already this season. Thompson’s timing seems to be a fraction of a second off as he is meeting the ball just as the ball begins to descend from its apex. While it’s good to be aggressive, Thompson can be overaggressive at times which has cost the Cavs points. It’s too early to tell if Thompson is still adjusting to the speed of the NBA game or if it’s simply a skill issue, but it is something that needs to be worked on.

Second, Thompson’s free throw shooting is excruciating to watch. This was one of the criticisms that was brought up when Thompson was selected over Valanciunas since Jonas shot an eye-popping 91.7% from the charity stripe in Europe during the 2010-2011 campaign. Thompson, on the other hand, shot .487 from the foul line during his only year at Texas, and is currently sitting at .368 for the Cavs in 13 games. Poor free throw shooting has been a staple for the Cavaliers for years; in fact, the last time they finished in the top half of the league in free throw percentage was 2003-04, LeBron’s rookie season, when they were 14th. Adding Thompson to the mix certainly will not help matters. For a team that will struggle to score at times due to not having a consistent scorer on the roster, it is essential to not leave points at the free throw line like they did against Indiana when they went 18-31 from the line and lost in overtime. The fact that knocking down 50% of his free throws this year would be considered a stretch goal is depressing at best and seriously alarming at worst. Thompson needs to have an expectation going forward that he will continue to focus his time on this element of his game during the offseason.

Generally when holding the number four pick in the draft, the last thing you want to hear Jay Bilas say is “He just needs to learn how to play and how to score,” but Cavs fans have felt much more positive since draft night. While the Cavs aren’t likely to seriously contend for a playoff spot this season, they do have solid foundation pieces in Irving and Thompson which serve as hope that maybe, just maybe, there is a light at the end of the rebuilding tunnel. Rest assured, the Tristan Thompson Experience is sure to be a fun progression to track this year through its ups and downs, but we can be positive about one thing; there is just one place that fans can see him in his home uniform…only in Cleveland.

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