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Chauncey Billups Is Mad. I’d Be Mad, Too

December 10, 2011 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by ilegonzales on Flickr

 

Chauncey Billups has been amnesty’d and he’s thrilled:

“I just don’t deserve the treatment that I’ve continually gotten,” Billups said. “Historically, these things never happen to the supposed great players and good guys. They continually happen to me, and it gets old. Listen, I feel I’ve been blessed in the game, and I’ve been given back, but these things start to wear on you. But there’s not another guy in history who keeps dealing with this, getting thrown into these things to make the money right. I really believe it’s because people take my kindness and professionalism for weakness. They think I’ll be OK with this. I won’t be OK with this. I’ve saved my money. I may just retire if I don’t get my freedom here.

Via Billups Warns Teams Not To Claim Him Off Waivers, 12/10/11

You’ll remember, as of eight months ago, Billups thought he was going to finish his career at home. After bouncing around from team to team and having to leave the group he’d won a championship with in Detroit, he was comfortable in Denver. He was going to play a few more years there, then join the organization in another capacity. He was loved. So, he wasn’t fond of the idea of having to move to New York in the Melo deal:

“Oh it was hard, hardest thing I’ve ever had to do,” Billups said quietly, once the mad scene at the Garden had settled. “I had to tell my girls that daddy was traded, that he was leaving to play across the country. I told them it wasn’t my choice, that nothing could be done about it. I had to go. It wasn’t a happy scene.”

Via Home For ‘Melo Proves Different Road For Billups, 2/24/11

By the end of last season, Billups was still living in a hotel near the team’s practice facility, but had warmed up to life as a Knick. He said he wanted to return, but also that he “wouldn’t take it personally” if the team bought out the last year of his contract for $3.7 million. Turned out that the club wanted him to stay, deciding a couple of days later to pay his full $14.2 million salary. When his name started appearing in Chris Paul trade rumors recently, he didn’t love it:

“I want to win another championship,” he said. “I think we got some good pieces in New York. I felt like we were making that move to be possibly one of those top teams. I don’t want to play for no team that’s rebuilding.

Via Billups Pleased With N.B.A. Deal, Wants To Stay Put, 12/2/11

Billups is not going to get another shot with these Knicks, but he still wants to start and to contend for a title. He knows the amnesty waiver wire process allows any team to claim him, so he’s trying to exert some control over the situation by threatening to be a problem or retire. And you know what? I’m not mad at him. I feel bad for Chauncey, being cast aside yet again. There’s definitely logic in the Knicks forming a fearsome frontline, but if I was him I’d be wondering what exactly they were planning to do about the point guard situation. I’d be wishing they had just bought me out months ago and avoided this whole thing. If I was 35 and still had his talent, I wouldn’t want to spend a season coming off the bench or acting as a mentor on a losing team. I’d want to sign with a good team and beat the one that let me go.

As soon as I saw those quotes to Adrian Wojnarowski, I thought of Allen Iverson. Kind of ironic that it’s Chauncey now who’s saying he doesn’t want to come off the bench, right? After the Billups-AI swap three years ago, I loved the way it raised Chauncey’s profile. What I hated, though, was that the compliments for Chauncey’s game often came packaged with criticism directed at Iverson, often in poor taste. At the time I wanted to scream that they were in different situations. I didn’t think it was fair to blame Iverson entirely for Detroit’s locker room being a mess, and I didn’t think Billups would have taken kindly to being asked to come off the bench, either. At the very least, the latter part appears to be true.

Billups’s well-earned reputation will likely save him from being cast as selfish and unprofessional here, and that’s fine with me. If it feels like it’s coldly manipulating the system to get what he wants (a starting role on the Heat, maybe?), well, that’s exactly what the Knicks did to him.

In Praise Of Vince Carter In Dallas

December 10, 2011 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by add1sun on Flickr

 

Guess who’s (reportedly) joining the champs!

The Dallas Mavericks are closing in on reuniting Vince Carter with his former New Jersey teammate Jason Kidd, according to sources with knowledge of the deal.

The full financial terms of the agreement weren’t immediately known, but sources said Dallas was discussing a multiyear contract with Carter and hoped to have him signed by Saturday.

Via Sources: Vince Carter, Mavs Close, 12/9/11

I like it. Stop laughing.

I know I’m not really supposed to write anything pro-Vince here at HP, but seriously, he’ll help. And I’ve an inkling they’ll get him at way better value than, say, Caron Butler. If and when this becomes official, Carter will essentially do the things that Butler did in a Mavs uniform — shoot, slash, and handle the ball. He’s a much inferior defender, but he’s a better passer and he can play in the post, too. I’m particularly looking forward to seeing Carter in the 1/2 pick and roll with Jason Kidd. This worked pretty damn beautifully in New Jersey and, even though they’ve both deteriorated significantly since then, it could still be effective every once in a while when Dirk can’t get open. For all the jokes that will be made at Carter’s expense, the Mavs’ offense should benefit from Vince’s multitude of skills.

The problem is that those skills aren’t anywhere near what they used to be. With Phoenix, his efficiency dropped to its lowest level since that time he forced his way out of Toronto. He very occasionally looked like the Vince we fondly remember, but his inconsistency and his apparent lack of effort on the defensive end last season are not what the Mavs are looking for. They’re hoping that the change in scenery will bring out the best in him. He’s in a supporting role, with a veteran team that just won a championship by sharing the ball, holding each other accountable, and communicating on D. Even without Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, and J.J. Barea, Dallas sees itself as a title contender again. An optimist would say Vince should play with that purpose in mind. I’m not saying that Carter is going to return to relevance next season, but if it’s going to happen anywhere, it’s in Dallas.

Of course, the Mavs are taking a chance. Maybe there’s no saving Vince at this point in his career. But with all sorts of bodies at the 2 and 3 spots — Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, Rudy Fernandez, Rodrigue Beaubois, Corey Brewer, and Dominique Jones — it wouldn’t be a disaster if the Carter experiment failed. You’d hope all the competition would motivate him, but if it doesn’t, you just move on. Quality low-risk move here by a team not looking to sacrifice future flexibility.

The Celtics Have Some New Players, May Have One More

December 10, 2011 in by with 0 Comments

Here's what Doc said he told Danny: "Get as many players as you can get, we're going to have to use them all."
December 10, 2011 12:27 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@Pflanns
Paul Flannery

If you’re like me, you’re getting a bit lost in this free agency madness, so let’s recap what Boston did yesterday:

  • Signed Marquis Daniels to a one-year deal
  • Signed Jeff Green to a one-year deal
  • Signed Chris Wilcox to a one-year deal
  • Traded essentially nothing for Keyon Dooling
  • Traded Glen Davis for Brandon Bass
  • Tried to trade Jermaine O’Neal for David West. (The Celtics and Hornets are still trying to complete this deal — West would sign for 3 years, $27-29 million.)

Quick reactions: Good for Quisy! Super happy that he says he’s feeling good and is back with the guys he wants to play with. The Green deal seems very reasonable. Wilcox should help offensively and finally gets to play for a good team. Bass is a definite upgrade over Baby, especially considering the organization was disappointed with Mr. Davis last year. All of this makes so much sense! Then, whoa, David West?!

Boston’s about the last place I expected West to go. It’s not that he’s a bad fit in their system; I can picture Rondo finding him open on the perimeter for jumpers all day. It’s just that, umm, they have a starting 4. His name is Kevin Garnett. And while there aren’t a lot of great centers anymore and KG, Bass and Wilcox can play a bit of 5 and blablabla positional revolution blablabla, it feels wrong that the Celtics don’t have a big, tough, interior presence. Any defense with Rajon Rondo and Garnett will still be very effective, and West isn’t a bad defender, but the prospect of a West/35-year-old-Garnett manning the paint isn’t that scary.

Still, I have to praise Ainge for these moves. See that Doc quote up top? It makes sense. This is a compressed schedule and, as you may have heard, Boston’s core is getting a wee bit old. Having extra bodies to protect against injuries and rest their veterans is smart. The Celtics had 6 players under contract before yesterday — striking quickly to sign inexpensive, quality role players to one-year deals was exactly what was necessary. Going after West may seem strange at first, but remember this: The Celtics finished 18th in offensive efficiency last season, for reasons articulated expertly by Zach Lowe a few days ago. Even if there’s a drop-off defensively for a few stretches against certain teams, West’s offense should surely make up for it. Boston badly needed another reliable scoring option and having to throw a few unconventional lineups out there to accommodate one is a small price to pay. I still want the Celtics to sign a bruiser because THEY’RE THE CELTICS, DAMMIT, but they’ve absolutely improved their team. If they do indeed acquire West to go along with those role players, Doc Rivers should be very pleased.

Brandon Roy, Retirement, And Inevitability

December 9, 2011 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by oregonianphoto from Flickr

I woke up to this today:

The last 24 hours have been a whirlwind of signings, blockbuster trades, cancelled blockbuster trades, despondent Lakers fans, and Dan Gilbert emails. But now, amidst all the wheeling and dealing and seemingly infinite stream of instant news, I feel the need to stop, breathe, and try to come to terms with Brandon Roy’s retirement.

I wrote extensively about what Roy meant to this franchise here. A lot of those same memories have rushed to the forefront today. The incredible turnaround against the Rockets, the countless 4th quarter comebacks led by the poised intensity of Roy’s methodical drives, step back jumpers, and ambidextrous finishes, as well as the recent explosion against the Mavericks, the last gasp of brilliance before an unceremonious exit. It is not hyperbole to say that Roy revitalized a fan base and a franchise that had been dismissed and forgotten. Now, we are faced with the ever present feelings of emptiness and longing that come with every premature goodbye. The promise we once held so tightly, the possibility that seemed so expansive and limitless, turned into the sorrow of “what could’ve been”.

Ultimately, I can’t escape the feeling of inevitability that surrounds Roy. It’s feels as though Roy was doomed to this injustice, that his body would allow him to capture brilliance for a moment, only to have it snatched away. That the hope and ambition both Roy and the fan based shared was merely a mirage. That there was no way to escape the hurt and bitter disappointment.

I don’t know where Roy goes from here. Maybe into coaching or management, or maybe business of some kind. Certainly, he’s financially set. He doesn’t have to worry about sustenance or comfort. But, no amount of money can buy what Brandon Roy has lost. All of us want to find meaning in our existence, Brandon Roy is no exception.

It’s difficult to toss out the word tragedy when discussing something as trivial as professional athletics; but this is a tragedy. Not for the Blazers, or the fans, or those who loved Roy’s game and what he epitomized; the full pain and weight of these unfortunate circumstances belong to Brandon Roy. The game he loved, the craft he poured his soul into has been taken away from him; there is nothing trivial or insignificant about that.

 

The Clippers Are Still The Clippers

December 8, 2011 in by with 0 Comments

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7betLAka3M]

Source: Caron Butler agrees to terms with Clippers. Three years, 24M.
December 8, 2011 3:32 pm via Mobile WebReplyRetweetFavorite
@daldridgetnt
David Aldridge

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

Oh, man.

Where do we begin, here?

Do we make fun of the Clippers for bringing in a 31 year old even though the ages of their key players are just a few years removed from starting with a 1? Or how about we make fun of the Clippers for that 31 year old is coming off major surgery? Or how he’s a terrible fit for the Clips because he can’t shoot from behind the arc (shot 43% last season, but then you see he only attempted 65 threes before ending his season and he’s a 31.9% shooter over his career) and plays a similar aggresively-scoring game as budding star Eric Gordon even though he’s not nearly as good?

Maybe we should talk about the unfortunate burying of Al-Farouq Aminu on the cold, cold bench, where his only chance at joy will be a closer look at Vinny Del Negro’s hair. Or the way the Clippers, who were supposed to use their cap space to make trades for Chris Paul or Dwight Howard are now just 5 million away from the cap before re-signing DeAndre Jordan, and, assuming they extend Eric Gordon, will have to get creative to have room for a max free agent in 2012. Because, you know, when you think Clips, you think creative.

With Caron, though, it’s beyond the injury. He’s a solid defensive player, and is a natural small forward. With Aminu’s youth and Ryan Gomes’s Ryan Gomesiness, that’s something the Clippers need. But offensively, he’s a horrible fit. Butler’s go-to move is a continuous stream of immobile pump fakes and jab steps, hopefully lulling his defender into an advanced state of paralysis, enabling him to use what little lift he still has for a mid-range jumper.

In his defense, he’s not bad at making those shots – he made 43 %, 48 % and 45 % of his long twos over the past three seasons – but with his eroding athleticism seeing his free throw numbers cut in half since they peaked at 6 a night in 2008-2009. He’s a high-usage, middle-efficiency scorer, on a team that already has one of those (Chris Kaman), as well as two elite young everythings in Gordon and Blake Griffin, and a generally better offensive player in Mo Williams.

Why would you give a guy 8 million dollars a year to be the 5th option on offense if he’s shown an inability to play a 5th option style throughout his career? It’s classic Clippers, really. Faced with a promising situation, a single glaring hole and the means to fix it, they go sign the wrong player, for the wrong amount. And as Sterling is wont to do, they do it in a way that basically nullifies this entire (rather pointless) 5 month lockout that created this free agency frenzy in the first place. Because if a 34 year old Caron Butler will be getting 8 million a year, then the system is as broken as ever.

No options remain for us bystanders beyond enjoying the LOLs. Free agency madness continues, and once again, and the Clippers stand at the top of the heap of the freakishly confounding.

So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance

December 3, 2011 in by with 1 Comment

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCFB2akLh4s w=640 h=360]

Didn’t expect to see this today:

The Toronto Raptors drafted Jonas Valanciunas with the No. 5 pick in the 2011 NBA draft knowing it would be at least a year before he came to the NBA.

But a source close to the team told ESPN.com on Saturday that there’s a small chance they might be able to get him this season.

The source said that the team reached out to Valanciunas’ agent over the weekend to gauge the center’s interest in joining the Raptors in 2011-12. If Valanciunas has interest, the Toronto would have to work out a buyout with his team in Lithuania, Lietuvos Rytas.

Via Valanciunas To Play In The NBA This Season?, 12/3/11

I can feel it, Toronto fans are getting excited. Barring a big name frontcourt addition, they’ve been resigned to the fact that this year’s version of the team would likely look very similar to the one that finished 22-60 last year. While there are plenty of holes to fill on this roster, this is likely the way to go — let Dwane Casey try to establish a new identity, but don’t sacrifice cap flexibility and don’t grab players who aren’t going to be productive a few years from now. Let the young players develop, emphasize defense, and lose, lose, lose on your way to drafting someone like Harrison Barnes. Picking Valanciunas was absolutely the right call if the Raptors thought he was the best player available, but in making the pick they knew that they’d be asking their fans to sit through another down year without even a new young player to latch onto. Now? According to Chad Ford’s report, maybe they won’t have to wait for their rookie. Hooray!

Just a couple of things to keep in mind here: first, as Ford mentions, as of draft time Valanciunas told teams and reporters that he wasn’t ready for the NBA yet. He’s still a skinny 19-year-old. He plays with fire and has enough NBA skills that he should be able to crack the rotation right away, but it will not be the least bit surprising when he’s bullied by bigger players. This will be true if he comes over in 2012-2013 as expected, doubly true if sooner. You’ll need to be patient with him. Second, even if he does want to come to Toronto immediately, I’m not sure why Lietuvos Rytas would let go of him. Ford mentions that they failed to qualify for the Euroleague and they need money, but NBA teams were prohibited from paying international teams more than $500,000 in a buyout under the old CBA. It’s possible this rule has been changed and we haven’t heard about it yet, but if it’s the same as the old system then any additional money would have to come out of Jonas’s pocket. Is the team so cash-strapped that $500,000 this year and no more Valanciunas is better than keeping him for the rest of the reason and getting $500,000 next year? I have my doubts, and that’s likely why it’s just a “small chance.” Still, it’s a chance. A chance the Raptors’ season will be a bit more interesting. With rebuilding teams, interesting is all you can ask for.

A Different BIg Man Option

December 3, 2011 in by with 8 Comments

Photo by amingportfolio on Flickr

 

So this is a pretty sweet free agent class for bigs, right? Nene, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, David West. If I was a GM looking to improve my frontcourt, I’d love any of them. Especially Marc — he’s just entering his prime (he’ll be 27 in late January) and is already incredibly versatile on offense. He may not be an all-world defender today, but he’s solid and I’d bet on him continuing to get better.

Wait, wha? He’s almost definitely staying with Memphis? Crap. Well, those other guys might be better than Marc is right now, anyway! So what if they’re a bit older — Chandler was the defensive anchor for a championship team, Nene is coming off the best season of his career, and West’s consistent scoring at the 4 is very valuable…

Hold up. Nene and Chandler are asking for near-max deals? Hmm, I don’t know about that. Come to think of it, I don’t know about David West’s knee, either. Who else could I go after? Maybe there’s a chance the Clippers don’t match a DeAndre Jordan offer sheet.. I could be the guy who offers Greg Oden a 3-year deal… Hey, Andris Biedrins was really good a couple of seasons ago… Samuel Dalembert can still block shots, you know… Joel Przybilla might be a bargain if he can stay on the floor…

Oh, I have an idea: Anderson Varejao.

Of course, Andy isn’t a free agent. But he’s 29 and he plays in Cleveland. With that roster, the Cavs really should have no use for 29-year-olds sopping up significant minutes. Yeah, depending on how good Kyrie Irving is out of the gate, Varejao could still be their best player, but they just used the #4 pick on Tristan Thompson. You can look at this in two ways: Andy has value as a mentor, or Andy is expendable because their skillsets overlap. In either case, it’s hard to imagine him being a Cavalier in three years and the team needs a few more pieces to rebuild properly. Varejao helps you win, but Cleveland doesn’t need wins, so Chris Grant should consider trading him for good young players and picks.

Varejao is making $7.95 million this season. In 2014-2015, he’ll be making $9.95 million (unless he’s cut – only $4 million of that is guaranteed). For one of the best defensive players on the planet, this is a bargain. He doesn’t give you the scoring you can get from Nene or Marc Gasol and he doesn’t guard the 5 as well as Chandler, but he’s not just an energy player. He’s almost unmatched in terms of defending the pick and roll and he’s long been underrated for the cuts he makes and his weird finishing ability around the basket. He only appeared in 31 games last season due to a torn tendon in his right ankle, but early in the season he was making some jump shots as well. Now, Varejao says he’s 100 percent healthy. There’s sure to be some rust at the beginning of the season because he didn’t play any basketball for 11 months, but for a contending team or one that’s a piece or two away, he’d be a fantastic acquisition. A savvy GM will realize that he won’t kill your cap situation or let you down in a few seasons, as well.

Wait & See

November 30, 2011 in by with 5 Comments

Thaddeus Young is three months older than Kevin Durant, three months older than Derrick Rose, and about nine months older than Blake Griffin. He’s young. He’s 23, and it’s a big reason why his restricted free agency will be one of the more interesting developments during the upcoming (curtailed) signing frenzy.

Young, of course, has the prototypical small forward physique to go with a classic small forward game. He’s long, athletic, and coordinated, but what makes his development so intriguing is his understanding of where to be on the court. In the halfcourt, most of his baskets come from smart cuts to the rim where every motion is resolute and lightning quick. In today’s NBA he is a tweener, though it’s hard to see it as a pejorative for Young when he so efficiently scores in bunches for the Sixers. He’s specifically mentioned working on his midrange game over the summer, which is encouraging since his percentages from 3-15 feet out haven’t been good in his four years. Finding one or two decent post moves to go along with a more consistent midrange jumper would work wonders for his game. Despite his chiseled frame, Young doesn’t possess the girth necessary to stand up to most bruising big men. While he has a hook shot in his arsenal, it hasn’t really been consistent enough against larger defenders.

As a tweener, his defensive abilities are inherently a mixed bag. While he possesses plenty of quickness to adequately cover the pick and roll, he struggles to defend post-up situations, allowing just a few ticks over 50% shooting in the post, according to Synergy Sports Technology. Fortunately, the problems he faces on defense aren’t due to a lack of effort. Unfortunately, lean 6’8” wings aren’t really meant to defend the Zach Randolphs or Greg Monroes of the league.

But again, Young is … young. There are a number of teams in need of an offensively potent wing, and Young fits the bill. Though he was primarily a role player on the Sixers, an expanded role – either on the Sixers or elsewhere — especially at this stage in his career, could lead to a breakout season. According to Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix, teams are taking notice, and a hefty offer from another team could very well cost Philadelphia an important piece to their developing nucleus:

Hearing the Sixers are very nervous about someone swooping in with a big offer for Thaddeus Young. Young's stock soared last season.
November 29, 2011 8:57 am via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@ChrisMannixSI
Chris Mannix

It’d be a low-risk, high-reward move. In one year with Doug Collins, one of the most anal-retentive coaches in the league, he’s become a highly efficient, low-mistake player who still has all the time in the world to tack on more skills. But the Sixers are surely measuring their steps carefully. In trying to build a contender through Andre Iguodala and Elton Brand, the team blew max money on guys who would eventually turn out to be glorified role players. The dread that preempts Young’s free agency is clear, but it shouldn’t paralyze the organization. He’s a good player worth the money he’ll be offered. He’s worth the chance.

No team should expect a star right away, but there is still hope – and time — on that front. He has an unteachable knack for scoring, and it shouldn’t be long before his skills catch up with his decisiveness. Even at its absolute floor, Young’s skills are still in high demand. Any team could use an athletic slasher with actual scoring ability. But there is time for more than just that, and the Sixers are rightfully worried that teams will be ready to make the steep investment.

 

The Case For Brandon Roy

November 28, 2011 in by with 4 Comments

Photo via theScore.com.

Amnesty Clause Rumble of the Day: Blazer coaches have been advised that using provision to waive Brandon Roy is strong possibility. AND ...
November 28, 2011 1:46 am via UberSocial for BlackBerryReplyRetweetFavorite
@ESPNSteinLine
Marc Stein

It’s not surprising that the Trail Blazers are gearing up to use the new amnesty clause on Brandon Roy. Along with Gilbert Arenas, Rashard Lewis, Luke Walton, and Travis Outlaw, he is one of the names that immediately jumped to mind for most people when word got out of the amnesty clause’s inclusion in the new CBA. My dear colleague Scott Leedy did a great job a few weeks ago of outlining exactly why, as much as it hurts, cutting ties with Roy is the only appropriate move for Portland going forward. He’s owed $68 million over the next four years, has no meniscus left in either of his knees, and is only sporadically capable of the kind of play that made him worthy of that contract in the first place. Banking on a return by Roy to his 2008-09 form, when he flirted with being a Top 10 player in the entire NBA, is a losing battle to fight.

All of this is true, but in spite of that, there’s a part of me that thinks the Blazers don’t necessarily need to rush into this decision. Barring a full season of healthy, productive Greg Oden (something else not worth holding your breath for), it’s highly unlikely that Portland will be a serious title contender this season. Other than flipping Andre Miller for Raymond Felton on draft day, their roster is virtually unchanged from the one that got bounced in the first round of the 2011 playoffs by Dallas. Shedding Roy’s contract would put them in a better position to use the full mid-level exception to sign…who, exactly? The free agents who could most help them make the jump to the Western Conference elite (Nene, Marc Gasol, Shane Battier) are almost definitely out of their price range. And anyway, Portland has no GM to make these moves.

Going into the 2010-11 season, Roy’s knees were a larger concern than they had been in the past (we all remember his dramatic early return from surgery during the Blazers’ first-round series agains Phoenix). But the expectations on him to be a franchise player and everyday number-one option were still there. Nobody knew that LaMarcus Aldridge would have the breakout year he had, or that Wesley Matthews would (mostly) live up to his controversial contract, or that the midseason acquisition of Gerald Wallace would rejuvenate the team on the defensive end. Roy’s dual arthroscopic knee surgeries and subsequent return as a bench player were a learning experience for Nate McMillan, for Roy’s Blazers teammates, for fans used to the Roy of old, and especially for Roy himself. His performance in game 4 of the Blazers’ first-round loss to Dallas, in which he almost singlehandedly brought the team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit to pull out a dramatic win, galvanized everybody who believed he still had something in the tank, and served as catharsis for a player who had made headlines earlier in the series for his frustration with his playing time.

Going into this season, everybody has a better idea of Roy’s limitations. They know he’s still capable of what he did in that playoff game, but only occasionally. He’s had an extended offseason during which to come to terms with his diminished role. McMillan likely has a better idea of how to manage his former star’s minutes with these limitations in mind. With this firmer understanding of what can realistically be expected of him, do the Blazers really have that much to lose by seeing what they can get out of him this season?

Unlike Lewis and Arenas, two amnesty locks who have been viewed as overpaid and washed-up virtually since they signed their contracts, Roy is still beloved in Portland. It’s going to be a bitter pill to swallow for fans when it does happen, but cutting Roy is the only rational move for the Blazers to make. It has to happen eventually. But even waiving Roy and signing a low-priced free agent or two isn’t going to make Portland into a contender this year. It won’t be until next offseason, when Marcus Camby and potentially Gerald Wallace come off the books, that Portland will possibly have serious room to work with. Using the amnesty provision on Roy will be an option then, and it will be equally effective in clearing room on the payroll. That will be the time to sever ties with him. In the meantime, Paul Allen will be paying him anyway. Why not see what he’s capable of?

What About Jameer Nelson? No Seriously, What About Jameer Nelson?

November 26, 2011 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by leifcarlsen on Flickr

 

This time last year, the Magic had just beaten the Heat to improve to 10-4 and were about to win their next five games. They were absolutely considered title contenders, with essentially the same loaded roster that dominated the end of the previous regular season and playoffs before running into Boston. Now, heading into a 66-game season, they still have talent but you wouldn’t call them “loaded.” They’re one of the few teams for which I can’t find that wonderful offseason optimism. The early returns on last December’s swing-for-the-fences trades were… not great. If Gilbert Arenas isn’t amnesty’d, he’s at best a huge question mark. If Hedo Turkoglu isn’t amnesty’d, he’s, uh, still Hedo Turkoglu. Dwight Howard’s a monster, but most people assume he’s out the door soon. Jameer Nelson is… wait, what the hell is Jameer Nelson?

He was an All-Star quality guard, but that was a long time ago. His pre-injury 2008-2009 campaign could qualify for a Lost Season. If you go by the numbers, he was a good point guard before that year and he’s been a good point guard since. But if you remember that All-Star turn, just “good” feels wrong, doesn’t it?

“He’s capable of being an outstanding player,” says Van Gundy. “A lot of it is just consistency and coming with a high energy level every night.”

Via Orlando Magic Season Preview, 10/27/08

While the above SVG quote is taken from just before what would be Nelson’s best season, it’s representative of the two years following. We’ve all seen him be a game-changer: attacking, keeping the defense honest, always a threat to score and a huge problem in the pick and roll. We’ve also seen him be excruciatingly average, when for whatever reason he isn’t as decisive as you’d hope and you see too much of him standing around as Vince Carter or Hedo Turkoglu tries to make plays. That average Jameer is still a fine player and a trusted leader, but the Magic are much more dangerous when he’s making his presence felt.

 

Well, it’s hard… it’s harder to go from being a good team to a great team. It’s easier going from being a bad team to a good team because you have so much more room to improve. You look at Jason and his team this year, they were always a good team. They didn’t get over that hump. They couldn’t get over that hump, but they figured out a way to get over that hump to win a championship and that’s what veteran teams do. They figure out ways to go from being a good team to a great team. We’re still a good team. We had an early exit this year but we’re still a good team. We still have a lot of pieces that work for us.

Via Dime Q&A: Jameer Nelson On What It Takes To Go From Good To Great

If the Magic are going to get over the hump and contend for a title, something has to change. A return to form from Arenas would be glorious, but injuries have probably made that an impossibility. Dwight Howard can’t be much better than he was last year unless he starts hitting midrange jumpers and/or free throws. I don’t see how you can bet on Turkoglu at this point. Unless you believe this is the year of Earl Clark, the only guy on the roster who could realistically change the Magic’s fortunes is Nelson. The trouble is that, like with his team, there’s no simple answer for how he can be more effective. He’s essentially been the same player for years, but he has great games sometimes. A breakout season would entail doing what he does sometimes, all the time. I wish I could point to some sort of evidence that this breakout was coming, but I can’t.

I was convinced he’d have a huge year last year, but it didn’t happen and the worst part is I’m not sure why. It’s not as simple as “started off strong, fell off when the trades were made, then got accustomed to his new teammates and finished the year strong.” That’s a tidy narrative and it was how I saw it heading into last year’s playoffs, but it doesn’t address the fact that he struggles with consistency more than most players. It doesn’t account for exploding for 27 points (20 in one quarter!) in Game 1 of the Atlanta series, then being held in check for the next five games. I expected him to be great against the Hawks and I expected the Magic to win the series. He wasn’t, and they lost. Nelson is forever the x-factor. If you can figure him out, let me or Stan Van Gundy know.

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