
Photo by Moondog Mascot via Flickr
It’s impossible to talk about Rasheed Wallace without discussing the elephant in the room. Wallace holds the record for technical fouls in a career at 304, and one gets the feeling it’s not a record he’s against holding. After all, he once got called for 41 technicals in one season, and he knew exactly what he was doing. Wallace played with emotion and passion, but often he was unable to keep that fire under wraps. As a result, he fired shots against referees like he was in a war; in 2002-03, he received a seven-game suspension for threatening Tim Donaghy on a loading dock after the game.
While fans often appreciate that kind of energy and vigor, there’s no argument that it was detrimental to Wallace’s teams. He seemed to recognize it to some extent as well; when the league instituted a policy of suspending players after their 16th technical foul during the regular season (and again after every other additional technical), Wallace drastically cut down on his antics and was whistled for far fewer techs. Even with that newly found awareness of his surroundings, though, the plethora of technical fouls, ejections and suspensions did non-negligible damage.
How much damage? A precise answer would be incredibly difficult to nail down without parsing every game log for free throws made/missed, the time at which Wallace was ejected from a given game and countless other factors that are beyond the scope of this study. However, I did want to come up with some sort of estimate, so I took the technical foul and ejection data available on ESPN going back to the 1999-00 season, as well as Wallace’s suspension history, and made some basic assumptions:
First, for the sake of this experiment, I assumed that technical free throw attempts are successful 85% of the time. Average FT% for guards over the past few seasons is slightly above 80%; I bumped it up to 85% under the assumption that the better-shooting players who take the majority of free throws make them at a slightly higher rate. Multiplying that success rate times the number of technical fouls called on Wallace gives a simple estimate of the points his team gave up as a result.
Second, I calculated Sheed’s average Win Shares per game by multiplying his WS/48 times the minutes per game he averaged in a given season. That number served as the basis for several calculations – total Win Shares lost (WS/G times ejections* and suspensions) and Win Shares lost vs. a marginal player (the difference between Sheed’s total WS lost and the WS lost if a replacement-level player of .100 WS/48 played his minutes per game for the duration of the games he missed).
*This was the first majorly problematic assumption; it’s nearly impossible to determine how much time Wallace lost per game based on when he was ejected. For simplicity’s sake, I calculated these numbers as if Sheed had missed the entire game, which obviously inflates the negative impact. Feel free to multiply those numbers times whatever coefficient you think is appropriate for time lost – I considered making the assumption that the ejections, on average, came halfway through the game, which would naturally cut the lost WS numbers in half.
Lastly, I took the average points off of technical free throws per season and put them through a Pythagorean winning percentage calculation, where the base was a .500 team scoring and allowing 7800 points per season. The result was taking a 41-win team down to 40.3 wins, on average.
The results of all that tabulation? This magnificent chart!

An average of almost 23 technical fouls - even after Wallace limited his transgressions – 2 ejections and almost a game suspended per season. Those technicals also cost his teams almost 20 points per season, which came outside of the flow of the game and artificially inflated defensive efficiency numbers.
Those numbers aren’t exceptionally high; they don’t jump off the page and scream how much damage Wallace did by refusing to temper his emotions. They only include 80% of the technicals called on Sheed during his career, however, and they are rather striking to me. Wallace cost himself an estimated 3.5 Win Shares over the course of his career simply by acting out; that number represents over 3% of Wallace’s total contribution in the NBA as measured by career WS. And while losing a tenth of a WS per season relative to a replacement-level player isn’t horrible, combining that with the impact of the free points the opposition received from the charity stripe translates into almost a full loss per season for Wallace’s teams which can be directly attributed to his tantrums.
Think about that for a second. A loss here and a loss there might not seem like much, but when that win or loss is completely at the discretion of one of a team’s best players, one can’t help but be agitated at the very least. Does it mean much in the grand scheme of things? Probably not; it’s merely indicative of how much each little thing, even a seemingly minor altercation with a referee, can impact the final result. Wallace was a fine player, with a basketball IQ that coaches and teammates raved about. Unfortunately, he didn’t always act as intelligently as he should have and impacted his teams in negative ways for over a decade. By goading refs, disagreeing with calls and generally acting like a malcontent, Wallace let his attitude cost his team a game per season.
Let’s not even talk about how much money he lost; that’s a discussion for another day and another blog.