STEPHEN A. SMITH HECKLER’S SOCIETY OF GENTLEMEN PRESENT: HECKLING STEPHEN A. AT THE DRAFT IV: THE FINAL RECKONING

WATCH.NOW.

In sports, and in particular the NBA, fans go through peaks and valleys of swagger, fervor, hunger, misery, desperation, and redemption, which leads to swagger.  Unless you’re a Lakers fan. Then you pretty much just have swagger. All the time.

Of these, I find desperation to be the most fun to watch. Redemption is like Homeward Bound. It’s sweet, and heartwarming, but it’s still a talking dog and you always have to question whether they would actually end up getting hit by a car in reality.

But desperation? That’s a special kind of fun. They’re like the Christopher Guest films. Awkward, unbelievable, yet instantly recognizable as behavior we are familiar with. After a period of darkness, a franchise will convince itself that any plan is the answer. Memphis’ three-year plan is a good example. The Celtics’ rebuilding effort pre-Garnett trade is another doozy. But man, Minnesota? That’s a swan dive into crazy juice. Industrial strength, high density crazyville.

Al Jefferson. Kevin Love. Three first round draft picks. Expiring contracts. New GM. New head coach. There was nothing but hope headed into this draft. And the fans were ready for that next step. For the jump-start into relevance again.

Just one problem.

The Timberwolves did not look themselves in the mirror before they walked into that draft room Thursday night.

Ricky Rubio has a rare concoction of elements that make him unique unto himself out of this draft class. He has star power, fan hype, professional employment, and capable handlers. This formula results in the one thing that can strike fear into the hearts of drafting small market teams. Leverage.

Rubio, as we all know, doesn’t have to commit to playing here. He can take his scrawny ass back across the water and make a good sum of money and continue to be idolized by his countrymen until such time as he can go where he wants to go. Kahn, for his part, is trying to play chicken with him. This talk of “well, it may be a few years.” Are you serious? Your star player? The big catch? The one you’re plugging on your website? He “might” be available “in a few years?”

Are you out of your freaking gourd?

But Kahn at least did what he thought was best for his franchise. And he drafted insurance in Flynn. We can debate exactly the damage that entering the night with three first round picks and walking out with only Johnny Flynn and Ellington actually playing next year another time. What I’m fascinated by is the reaction from Minnesota fans.

They’ve bought into the idea that “sure, he may not be around next year, but eventually he’ll be here.” What’s the success rate on that? And in the meantime, you have a #5 pick that has netted you absolutely nothing.  Not only that, but there’s the level of exaggeration the kid has created in the fanbase, even as he makes it pretty obvious he has no interest in suiting up in Minny’s colors.

We’re not just talking “Wow, he’s going to be a great addition to this team as we rebuild, the future still is bright!” No, no. We’re talking “He is (not ‘going to be’, is) better than Dwyane Wade and Deron Williams.” (CORRECTION 4:50pm EST: Derek politely points out that he’s not saying Rubio’s better than Wade or Williams, just that he wouldn’t trade Rubio for them. So there’s that.)  Let’s remember this is a kid who’s body frame is going to be pulverized by half the point guards in this league and whose play style most closely resembles a former white freak of nature out of LSU that is best known for never living up to his potential.  All of this, and the guy doesn’t want to play there.

Not that Minnesota fans are apparently aware of it. No, instead, they’ve decided to wage a jihad on sources who are widely respected not only by fans and media, but by the GMs themselves, under the guise of wanting transparency. Transparency which would, of course, eliminate their ability to siphon any information whatsover from GMs who honestly hate anyone involved in the media on a general basis. But that’s not what they really want. They want to lambast people for these subjects being relevant:

Above and beyond the sourcing nonsense and the lack of searching for answers to the questions listed above, can we also stop framing this issue in the following narratives?

• Rubio just wants to end up in New York
• Rubio would be much better off financially in a big market
• Minnesota is cold
• Donnie Walsh is David Kahn’s mentor

If you really sit down and think about it, these sentiments are meaningless gap-fillers.  Lots of players want to be on the big stage.  Of course there are more deals to be had in a huge city.  Lots of places are cold.  Lots of GMs earn their stripes under other active GMs.  These things are not unique to this situation.  Minnesota picked a kid who entered the draft and they don’t have to apologize for things that are true but hardly unique.

Hmm. I wonder why those things are being mentioned? Most likely because they’re both relevant and true.

Gap-fillers? Really? Because you know what a gap-filler is? Kahn talking like Rubio’s going to be a part of this franchise. He ain’t. That kid has leverage. And he’ll use it to get what he wants.

Now, it’s entirely possible Kahn is just positioning himself to get as much out of Walsh as he can. I have high hopes for Kahn and think he’s going to do a terrific job in Minnesota, despite the spin-out he did on draft night. He’ll get hammered for letting this “once in a lifetime” talent go, and if (when) Rubio ends up being just another point guard no one will go back and credit him. But it’s still the move to make.

But this situation is a perfect example of how fanbases can go absolutely insane in a short amount of time. Minnesota was a disaster under McHale. An outright disaster. And Minnesota is trying to convince itself that it can climb back to relevancy by showing Rubio all the wonderful things about Minnesota. And if he were a normal draft pick, or even a normal Euro draft pick, this wouldn’t be an issue. He’d be pumped about the money, figure out a way out of the buyout, and start listening to Replacements tapes and fashioning a winter wardrobe. But he’s not. He can hold out. He doesn’t have to stage a public feud or make it ugly. He can lay low, and wait for time to force Kahn’s hand, all the while enticing New York to pursue him further.

Maybe I’m way off. “Sources tell me” that there’s a good chance Rubio thinks he’s got a greater ability to get where he wants by playing in the NBA than by not. But let’s step back from the edge, take a look at this situation and deal with what’s actually going on, instead of blaming sites that are well connected for using anonymous sources.

I’m no Marc Stein. I’ve watched that dude operate in a locker room, and it was like watching the Godfather work a crowd. I talk to guys that are on the inside. Me? I’ve landed on the surface with a rock hammer and tried to chip my way in. And I can tell you from my very limited experience? GMs HATE most media members. Because essentially, their entire job is to try and take all the valuable information they have and give it away. Whether that’s juicy gossip, scouting reports, or contract details. And the distrust and revulsion is pretty clear, unless it’s a face that they know and trust. And that goes all the way from GMs down the line. And I can’t blame them for that. So when you work your way into a trusted position with these guys? You’re not going to use their names just so don’t leave the door open for a fan to start freaking out trying to find ways to rationalize his denial of what’s actually happening, namely, Ricky Rubio thinks you live in Siberia and that is not cool with him. And what’s Ricky? Ricky’s cool. Well, actually, Ricky’s scrawny and overhyped. But he’s also cool, supposedly.

What will now become awesome is that every step of the way as Rubio drags his feet on coming to Minnesota, there will be blame placed on the “New York media” for propogating the theory that it’s not just the buyout details but Rubio’s preference for location. T-Wolves fans now have a shadowy enemy to blame. And that’s much easier than pointing fingers at the star player that you want so badly to save you.

Now that I think about it, Minnesota fans and Cleveland fans should go bowling together.

UPDATE:

In response to the flurry of Timberwolf comments regarding Rubio wanting to come to Minny, I’d like to address something. Let’s try a little exercise.

You: Do you want to eat at Applebees?

Me: I want to eat.

How about this one.

You: Do you want to watch The Notebook?

Me: I want to watch a movie.

Or this.

You: Are you excited to visit a place where their biggest attraction is a shopping mall?

Me: I’m excited to travel.

Are you sensing a theme here? Reading between the lines?

Look, I love small market teams. They’re my bag. I want Minnesota to succeed. And if they trade Rubio, I think they can do just that. But this idea that “Rubio hasn’t said he doesn’t want to play in Minny! He hasn’t said it! LALALAAICAN’THEARYOUHEWANTSTO PLAYHERELALAALAL” is not going to be good in the longrun. He said “I’m excited to play in the NBA.” He said it was cold there. He said good things about other cities. And he skipped the freaking introduction!

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills. God Bless you, Minnesota. You are making for fine post-draft entertainment.

As I wait for the latest SASHSoG video with baited breath, I find this.

Glory be to Keyboard Cat.

Miss U, Isiah.

Dear Memphis Grizzlies,

This is the hardest letter I’ve ever had to write (in the last ten days). I know we’ve had some special times. Like the first game where OJ went off. And the game where we started to believe Marc Gasol was for real. That was nice. And who can forget when Darko tore his shirt? What a hoot!

And it’s not like you can say I haven’t stuck through the hard times since we started our relationship. I was by your side when you had lineups featuring Jaric and Buckner. I stood by you when everyone was making fun of you about Pau Gasol. You traded Javaris Crittenton and Kyle Lowry, putting all your eggs in Conley’s basket, and I supported you. I even tolerated the insane teasings toward the OJ-Mayo-As-A-Point-Guard fiasco, or as I like to call it, “The Turnover Manifesto.”

But this, I can’t stay with you for.

I begged you,  pleaded with you. I used podcasts, blogposts, emails to people who know you, to try and steer you from this course of action. But you wouldn’t listen. And look what you have to show for it.

A seven foot pogo stick with a Twitter account.

Okay, fine you didn’t want Tyreke Evans. Lots of people question the 6’5” player with killer explosiveness with insane ability to get to the rim who also happened to come out of the same program as this year’s Rookie of the Year who was also a point guard and which happens to be located in the same city as your damn franchise ensuring that you would have at least had a player on the squad that someone would know. That’s fine. But what about any other prospect? Listen, I’m not the biggest fan of Ricky Rubio, but even if you had drafted him and done the smart thing insteaf of propogating the delusion like Minnesota is, you would have at least walked away with some serviceable pieces, Jordan Hill, and furthered your rebuilding cause.

Instead, with the #2 overall pick, the runner-up prize in the Blake Griffin sweepstakes, with the second highest pick in an admittedly weak draft, you selected a player who’s ceiling is what? Dikembe Mutumbo? Emeka Okafor at best? Those are both good players. But are they #2 overall players? Would you spend a second overall pick on a pure shot blocker with no offensive game? What am I saying? Obviously you would.  You did.

So I’m going, Memphis. I’ll be around. Maybe we’ll see each other next season. I’m going to play the field for a while. I’ve been spending a lot of time with Charlotte, and I think they understand my needs better. They drafted a player that can actually do more than one thing at once. And in the end, I just don’t think I’m meant for just one team. I’m more a poly-fanatic.

I’d love to tell you that it’s not you, it’s me. But that’s a lie. It’s you. It’s you and your cost cutting. It’s you and your reluctance to seize the moment. It’s you and the fact that you actually had to have someone else turn down a trade that would have landed you Zach freaking Randolph.

I’ll call you when I reach my mother’s.

Bye, Memphis.

Love,

Matt

PS: SERIOUSLY? THABEET?!

Corn and I got together and talked about the trades rumored and real, and then did a little mock draft of our own, based on what we think the GMs should do. Everything was going fine. And then Corn decided to select “That Dude.”

Hilarity ensues.
Oh, and check us on iTunes, baby. Big time!

With the NBA Draft tonight, I often wonder how close the college game is to the professional one. It’s clear who the stars in the college game are. But are they just “built” for that style of play, or are they true stars who excel at any level (including the NBA)?

I have attempted to solve this problem by seeing how college stats correlate to NBA stats. To do this, I first took a large sample size of current NBA players’ career statistics and compared it with those sample players’ college stats. Everything was calculated on a per-minute basis. Once I had the stats, I ran a series of simple regressions to see how well the NBA numbers correlated with the college ones.

Below I have posted the R^2 values of the different correlations. R^2 basically says how well future outcomes are likely to be predicted by the model and can be thought of as a percentage. For example, if the R^2 of the correlation between college points per game and NBA points per game is 0.3405, then we can say that about 34.05% of NBA players’ PPG can be explained by their college PPG. The higher the R^2, the better.

Below are the R^2’s for the different correlations:

Points per minute: 0.3405

Field goal attempts per minute: 0.3522

Field goal percentage: 0.3436

Three-point attempts per minute: 0.6391

Three-point percentage: 0.7941

Free throw attempts per minute: 0.286

Free throw percentage: 0.7615

Rebounds per minute: 0.8312

Assists per minute: 0.8823

Steals per minute: 0.5981

Blocks per minute: 0.9327

Turnovers per minute: 0.4535

Personal fouls per minute: 0.4447

Those numbers are all higher than I expected before I began the study. Specifically, we can predict with pretty good certainty an NBA player’s blocks, assists, rebounds, three-point percentage, and free throw percentage based on their equivalent college statistics. Free throw attempts, points per game, field goal percentage, and field goal attempts are the weakest.

This all comes with one big caveat. The sample only includes guys that have made it in the NBA. The college stars that fizzled out at the pro level or the guys who NBA teams knew had no chance at the highest level before the draft were not included in this study. In other words, just because a guy is great in college doesn’t mean he will be great in the NBA. However, if he does make the NBA, we can somewhat predict how he’ll end up doing based on his college stats.

Yeah. That Just Happened.

I dreaded the Shaq to Phoenix trade. I knew what it symbolized. The end of SOL. The destruction of Amare’s confidence. The resignation of Steve Nash. The downward slide of Matrix. It was contrary to every effective train of thought.

This? This I actually like.

Let’s be clear. There’s only one personality that matters in Cleveland and we all know who that is. So there’s a void there for Shaq to fill. To be the Other Personality. The veteran legend. You can’t do that on a team built on philosophical constructs comprised of guys who read Nietzsche and write poetry. You can do that on a team that does camera poses during intros.

From a spacing standpoint, it’s brilliant. The low post control that Z can’t assert, Shaq can. You have three effective rebounders now, and a guy who you can at least put on Howard without cringing. You have Mo Williams, Delonte West to be the sparkplug, Varejao and Shaq to do the dirty work, and James to shine. James knows Shaq won’t be there long. And that’s totally fine. He’s willing to let Shaq run his mouth as long as he delivers a title. And for Shaq, it’s a chance to redeem his image and further the idea that he’s the one that takes young guys to the next level.

Let’s go ahead and start a 72 hour countdown for the first bomb Shaq drops on Phoenix. Somehow, Kerr will manage to avoid his wrath, but I doubt Amare and Nash go unscathed. Nash is more likely because of the previous feud, his general attitude, and the fact that Shaq knows Nash won’t fight back.

You have to believe Phoenix has something else additional planned in the next few months. Nash-Richardson-Hill (?)-Amare-Lopez is not what Kerr will want to go to war with in a contract year for him. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Phoenix in another trade by the end of the night tomorrow.

Cleveland, embrace the big fella. He’s all yours.

In tonight’s episode, Billy brings home a turtle, and mom is none too thrilled. Sheila wrestles with whether to take Donald to Vickie’s, and Herman has a hilarious mishap at work.

Or, we talk to Zach Harper of Cowbell Kingdom, Mike K. from Knickerblogger.net, and Patrick from Howlin’ T-Wolf about the draft. Insight ensues. Enjoy.

Oh, and check us on iTunes, baby. Big time!

As a Bobcats supporter, I am currently very afraid. Please think about the following scenario.

Bobcats cut Sean May loose today (day before draft).

Michael Jordan decides who Bobcats are drafting. Bobcats need a shooting guard w/ size and 3 point shooting ability more than anything.

Jordan loves UNC more than he loves the Bobcats. Jordan convinces himself the May loss was a necessary evil, but now, he is short on UNC players on the roster.

Gerald Henderson, who tons of draft sights have going to the Bobcats, went to Duke. Bobcats decide to not take Henderson at the 12. Bobcats have been rumored to have promised Terrence Williams (Louisville) to take him at the 12. Either Williams or Henderson would be a great fit for Charlotte. Neither Williams nor Henderson went to UNC.

Bobcats just let go a 6’9″ guys with hustle and underrated skills who just didn’t fit in the NBA. Tyler Hansbrough went to UNC. Tyler Hansbrough is also a 6’9″ guy with hustle and underrated skills who won’t fit in in the NBA.

Jordan convinces Larry Brown he needs Hansbrough more. Larry Brown tells Jordan he is crazy. Jordan pimp slaps Brown. Brown loves guys who play D and hustle. Larry Brown loves UNC.

Bobcats draft Hansbrough with the 12.

Bobcats fail to improve most necessary area on their team and still don’t sell tickets because UNC don’t care about the NBA.

Corndogg wins “friendly wager” from Matt.

Yippie. I can haz Jordan’s respect.