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15 Footer 3/6/12: Early Bird Special

March 6, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by S Nelson1 via Flickr

No West Coast games tonight; the latest game on the schedule starts at 8:30 EST, with the rest tipping off at either 7:00 or 7:15. Darn that East Coast bias!

A battle of inferiority complexes (Hawks at Pacers, 7:00 PM EST)

Both of these teams have had solid seasons so far, but for many of the fans of these teams, that’s not enough. They want to know that their team is a contender for the Eastern Conference finals.

Well, Atlanta and Indiana fans, I am here to assure you that is not the case. I like the Hawks and the Pacers; one of the two stands a decent shot at home court advantage in the first round against the Sixers. But they’re still the little brothers in the East, looking up to their overachieving big brothers in Chicago, Miami and – to a lesser extent – Orlando. This should be an excellent game between two relatively evenly-matched teams, but it won’t offer a glimpse at a legitimate contender.

Bottling up the Drunken Seal is the key to a moral victory (Magic at Bobcats, 7:00 PM EST)

The best thing I can say for Charlotte is they’re at home, where half of their total wins this season have happened. Yes, that’s two games, but every upside counts for the awful, awful Bobcats.

The Bobcats also have a legitimate streak that they’re working on when it comes to the Magic; in the last two games against Orlando, the Bobcats have limited Glen Davis to fewer points than he had field goal attempts. Granted, a large part of that is Big Baby Doing What Big Baby Do. If there’s one skill the Bobcats can claim, however, it’s that they’re a Glen Davis-stopping machine.

Oh, and they would absolutely beat any NCAA team. I can’t believe this is still a discussion.

Going my way? (Rockets at Celtics, 7:30 PM EST)

Finally, Daryl Morey has come back to Boston! Well, his team has, at least. And he was just there this past weekend for Sloan, so it’s not really finally. Still, there’s a fun kind of serendipity to the Rockets visiting the Celtics. These are two teams headed in opposite directions, defined largely by roster construction. The Rockets, of course, went through the drama of the Chris Paul trade before the season started, and the Celtics’ season has been defined by inquiries as to when Danny Ainge is going to blow the whole thing up and start rebuilding.

Yet both teams are solidly in the playoff picture. Whether they want to be a seventh or eighth seed instead of grabbing a lottery pick is debatable – especially for the Celtics. The Rockets might be well served by sneaking into the postseason and getting some playoff reps. Boston, on the other hand, has little to gain from a likely first-round exit.

There’s also the fun of Kevin McHale visiting Boston as an opposing head coach; nostalgia is never in short supply in Boston.

As for the game itself, the point guard matchup is going to be fun. Rajon Rondo is coming off of his historic game on Sunday, and Kyle Lowry’s continued emergence as a standout point guard is one of the under-the-radar stories of the past season and a half.

Kaboom? KABOOM (Lakers at Pistons, 7:30 PM EST)

What do you get when you combine the 25th worst defensive team in the league with a center who’s likely going to be devoured on the interior by Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol?

It's too bad, too. I really liked Greg Monroe before he got vaporized.(Photo by yihate16 via Flickr)

But it’s okay, Pistons fans. I’m sure your perimeter defenders will totally lockdown Kobe Bryant. Tayshaun Prince can still do that, right?

Hope you’ve got another 57 in you, Deron (Nets at Heat, 7:30 PM EST)

This game would have been difficult enough if the Nets had Brook Lopez to put some pressure on the interior of the Heat defense. Without the Brookie Monster (out three weeks with a sprained ankle – an injury that’s unrelated to his previous broken foot SO STOP CALLING HIM INJURY PRONE BECAUSE HE PLAYED EVERY GAME FOR THREE STRAIGHT YEARS BEFORE THESE FREAK INJURIES YOU GUYS SERIOUSLY), and with Chris Bosh making his return to the starting lineup, the Nets are really in trouble.

Plus, this is totally going to be a revenge game; after losing to the Lakers on Sunday, the Heat are primed to take out all of their frustrations on the symbol of everything that the Lakers represent: Jordan Farmar.

You better have your scoring pants on, Deron Williams. You’re New Jersey’s only hope.

Hold me closer, Tyson Chandler… (Knicks at Mavs, 8:30 PM EST, NBA TV)

Sure, Jeremy Lin will largely be the focus tonight. He had one of his best games the last time these two teams met, and he (and the Knicks) have struggled recently. It’s an easy storyline, and it’s definitely something to keep an eye on.

For me, though, the bigger picture is Tyson Chandler getting his championship ring. Will he go the Dirk route and use it to bring his stylistic swagger to a symphony? Will he rip off his Knicks’ warm-ups to reveal a Mavericks jersey, WWE-face turn style? Will he give it to Mike Bibby to make him go away and never come back? The possibilities are endless.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QtPQ_QJpFIU

Wilt Chamberlain’s 1962 Season by the Numbers

March 6, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

 

Photo by MervC (Flickr)

Wilt Chamberlain’s 50.4 ppg and 25.7 rpg are pretty staggering to look at. But what’s even more staggering is looking at the game-by-game running tally, especially when you see the NBA cramming in 8 games in 9 days in early February or 5 in row at one point in January. These players were run ragged as the league fit 70 total games between late October and early March.

But go on ahead and take a gander at the game-by-game tallies…

OCTOBER 1961

Date Opponent PTS REBS
19th Lakers 48 25
20th Lakers 57 32
21st Knicks 53 35
27th Nationals 55 24
28th Nationals 43 23
51.2 27.8

 

NOVEMBER 1961

Date Opponent PTS REBS
3rd Celtics 28 33
4th Pistons 58 33
8th Pistons 58 23
9th Nationals 55 29
11th Celtics 41 21
14th Knicks 34 18
15th Royals 43 18
17th Lakers 56 32
18th Nationals 39 17
19th Packers 51 16
21st Royals 45 34
23rd Celtics 31 30
25th Packers 39 38
28th Hawks 39 22
44.1 26

 

DECEMBER 1961

Date Opponent PTS REBS
1st Lakers 60 21
2nd Lakers 37 24
5th Knicks 39 22
6th Hawks 39 16
8th Lakers 78 43
9th Packers 61 36
10th Packers 55 26
12th Pistons 54 25
13th Celtics 52 30
14th Nationals 43 22
16th Packers 50 21
19th Royals 57 25
20th Pistons 55 19
25th Knicks 59 36
26th Nationals 51 29
27th Knicks 53 30
29th Lakers 60 26
30th Celtics 41 28
52.4 26.6

 

JANUARY 1962

Date Opponent PTS REBS
1st Lakers 32 20
3rd Lakers 36 18
5th Hawks 53 22
7th Hawks 55 21
9th Nationals 47 27
10th Pistons 39 25
11th Royals 52 22
13th Packers 73 36
14th Celtics 62 28
17th Hawks 62 23
18th Royals 54 31
19th Pistons 53 21
20th Pistons 44 28
21st Nationals 62 23
24th Packers 55 32
26th Hawks 47 22
27th Celtics 53 27
28th Celtics 50 20
30th Knicks 55 27
52.8 24.9

 

FEBRUARY 1962

Date Opponent PTS REBS
1st Royals 53 26
2nd Knicks 35 19
3rd Nationals 41 15
4th Nationals 50 26
8th Knicks 59 24
9th Celtics 48 29
10th Celtics 38 31
11th  Knicks 42 25
13th Royals 65 22
14th Pistons 52 27
16th Royals 48 23
17th Hawks 67 28
20th Packers 48 21
21st Nationals 46 16
22nd Hawks 61 26
24th Celtics 26 31
25th Knicks 67 21
27th Hawks 65 23
28th Packers 61 28
51.2 24.3

 

MARCH 1962

Date Opponent PTS REBS
2nd Knicks 100 25
4th Knicks 58 35
7th Celtics 30 27
11th Nationals 44 26
14th Packers 34 33
53.2 29.2

 

So that’s a total of 70 games of at least 20 points and 20 rebounds. 45 games of 25 points and 25 rebounds. And 18 games of over 30 points and 30 rebounds.

And just for fun, here’s how the Dipper fared against each team:

Opponent PPG RPG
Celtics 41.7 27.9
Hawks 54.2 22.6
Knicks 54.5 26.4
Lakers 51.6 26.8
Nationals 48 23.1
Packers 52.7 28.7
Pistons 51.6 25.1
Royals 52.1 25.1

 

Thank goodness for Bill Russell’s defense holding Chamberlain to only 42 points. Otherwise he might have averaged 52 or 53 points for the season. Phew.

Lion Face/Lemon Face 3/3-4/12: The Clutch is on Your Left. No. Your Other Left.

March 5, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

In today’s adventure, Matt teaches Ben how to drive.

Open scene, front seat of a 1986 Datsun, Affleck is driving. Damon is in the passenger seat.

MD: [talking loudly over a whirring transmission] Now, Ben, OK, you hear that sound? Ben! Do you hear that?

BA: [hands clutching the wheel, looking straight ahead, sweating] Huh? What? No? Oh my God! This is terrifying!

MD: Ben, it’s OK! Nothing is terrifying. We’re in a Star Market parking lot. There’s no one here. But that sound means you need to shift into second gear. Ben! Relax! Second gear!

BA: Oh God. Oh no. Oh no. Second gear. Second gear. [tugs on gearshift] It’s not working! It’s not working! WE’RE GOING TO DIE!

MD: Ben! Press the clutch! Left foot! Left foot!

BA: AAAAAAAAHHHHHHH! [slams on gas, engine whirs loudly and stalls, car rolls to a stop next to an abandoned shopping cart]

MD: [staring at Affleck] Dude. Really?

BA: [opens his eyes, grateful he's alive, looks at Damon sheepishly] Your mom’s really got to stop driving this thing, Matt. It’s a deathtrap.

End Scene

Lion Face: Kobe Bean Bryant, getting his V for Vendetta on
Oh, you think that mask was because of the concussion and broken nose? No. Kobe was doing a very loose interpretation of Guy Fawkes blowing up Miami’s parliament building. Or something. Quite a different game than the one we saw on Christmas, eh? Kobe did all the things both his lovers and his haters say he does: shoot the ball non stop. And this time, it paid off. Third game in a row after the All-Star break where Kobe has scored 30+. Good on him. Also RINGGZZZ.

Lemon Face: Dwyane Wade, Decidedly Un-Clutch (5 ringz is 4 moar ringz than 1 ringz, #ringzmath)
Well, not that un-clutch. He did, however, foul out in the 4th quarter, creating a situation where LeBron was the lone superstar left on the Heat. Mike Brown was no doubt confused, since the team he was coaching against closely resembled many of his past teams.

Lion Face: The Washington Wizards!
A close battle against the Cleveland Cavaliers came down to the final shot, and the Wizards prevailed! Blatche was back, and he was only kind-of booed, Crawford had another big scoring night, Vesely had a few highlight reen dunks, and no one looked completely terrible! And then after Anthony Parker missed the three that would have sent the game into overtime, they launched streamers! Against the Cavs! In March! OK, why not!

Here’s one of Vesely’s dunks:

Lemon Face: The Cleveland Cavaliers
I think this game would have gone very different had Varejao been playing (notably, Ryan Hollins wouldn’t have played so many damn minutes), but after all the praise people have been heaping on the Cavs this year–most of it since they were so abysmal last year–you’d think they would have been able to hold onto their multiple leads in the game. Alas, not even Kyrie’s heroics and Antawn’s awkwardly-footed jumper could save them against a confident backcourt in John Wall and Jordan Crawford. Take it away Messrs. Mr. Mister:

Lion Face: Deron Williams’s 57-point barrage on Charlotte
57 points, 7 assists. He’s the only active player to have that stat line. And 21-21 from the line to boot? This could either be interpreted as a “Come and try to recruit me please!” game or a “Come on and play with me soon; look how good I am!” game. Either way, beastly.

Lemon Face: That Charlotte-New Jersey game
Deron Williams needed 57 points to beat Charlotte? Why are both of these teams so terrible? It’s really sad. I hope these two fanbases get much needed satisfaction soon. #PrayforCardboardGerald #PrayforCardboardBropez

Lion Face: Kevin Love
Putting up a 42-10 on route to a 122-110 victory over the Blazers in the Rose Garden. And to top it off, he got a shoutout in a rather lousy SNL skit on Saturday night. Everything’s comin’ up Kevin!

Lemon Face: The Portland Trail Blazers
Alert! Alert! People are panicking! Is it time to right the ship? How does one right the ship: make a concerted playoff push, or a concerted lottery push? Trade assets for flexibility? Trade assets for competitiveness? Your move, Paul Allen and a seemingly-endless army of Robin-like GMs.

Lion Face: Marcin Gortat, he of 17 but NOT 20 rebounds

“About me, 17 rebounds, I think coach kind of sniffed out that I’m getting close to 20 boards, and he didn’t really want me to shoot that three. That’s why he put me on the bench. I’ve got to talk to him. I’ve definitely got to have a meeting with him, today or tomorrow.”

-Gortat, on the non-beefiest beef with his coach. Veggie patty?

Lion Face: The Dallas Mavericks, for togetherness
Pulling it together, like champions do. Dirk goes for 40, and Lamar skips his anticipated rehab start in the D-League to play a solid 18 minutes on Saturday. Nice to see everyone’s got everyone else’s back. Let’s see if Dallas can keep this momentum going and get back into the contention conversation.

Lion Face: RAJON FREAKING RONDO
18 points. 17 rebounds. 20 assists. Oscar and Wilt territory. Incredible. And he got that 10th rebound (to finish out the triple-double) fairly early in the 4th quarter. The overtime helped add to the line a bit, but he was a monster without it. So the Celtics as a whole at 29 assists. The Knicks had 23. Rondo had 20 by himself. Two things for certain: he steps up to the plate when people talk about him in trade rumors and he makes his teammates’ lives easier.

Lemon Face: Golden State Warriors for only putting up 75 points against the Raptors
How dare you sully the “OMG LOOGIT THE POINTS”-association the world has with the Warriors and Nellie Ball? That was one of the only sure things that still existed in this sport. And just like that, it’s gone. For shame.

Welcome to The Clutch Cube: Part I – LeBron James

March 5, 2012 in by with 51 Comments

Courtesy of Wikipedia

Many NBA fans tend to have a very narrow definition of what constitutes clutch. That definition is usually limited to making game-tying or game-winning shots in the final seconds of the 4th quarter or overtime, and little else. For some reason, when the game gets close and late, more people tend to ignore every other aspect of the game and hone in on scoring. For some reason, they focus only on game-tying and game-winning shots, rather than considering the entirety of ‘clutch time’ situations.

Clock-beaters may be more flashy and dramatic than shots with more time left on the clock, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have more of an impact. If a player makes a go-ahead jumper with 35 seconds left and neither team scores for the rest of the game, it has the same effect as that player making the go-ahead jumper when the game clock expires. However, because of the way fans and media alike classify clutch plays, we all know only one of those plays would wind up on SportsCenter the next day. Similarly, a key rebound when your team is down by one possession won’t generate any headlines, but it can be vitally important to winning a game. A blocked shot with 1:30 left when your team is up by one point can often mean the difference between a win and a loss, but it won’t gain you any clutch recognition. The only thing that seems to really register with many people is the game-winning shot.

Discussions about the most clutch players in the game are always centered around shooting and scoring. Who has made the most game-winners? Who had made the most daggers? Who shoots too often and too low of a percentage? We need to broaden our view of how we evaluate clutch play. Defense, rebounding, and passing all matter just as much in crunch time as they do during the rest of the game, yet they go largely ignored when judging the performance of players in the clutch. If there are clutch shooters – or at least shooters who perform well in the clutch – then shouldn’t it also follow that there are also clutch rebounders, passers and defenders as well? Some players raise their game under pressure by scoring more points, others may raise their game by doing other things. It’s important to know who is contributing in those other areas that create wins. A high value is placed on things like rebounding to create extra possessions on offense and end them on defense, generating assists to create easy baskets for your teammates, and contributing to a stop on defense throughout the game, yet at the end of close games they go largely ignored.

If a player’s field goal percentage drops in the clutch, why is that? Does his rebounding rate go up? Do his steal rate go down? That’s what I’m going to be looking at in the new series here at HP, Clutch Cube. Using data from NBA.com’s StatsCube, I will be digging into the clutch time stats of a different player each week and highlighting what things other than making game-winning shots he is doing to help his team win games. Up first: who else but LeBron James?

——————

via NBA.com StatsCube

Weaknesses

The first thing that jumps out at you when looking at LeBron’s clutch time stats both from this year (pictured above) and last year is the drop in his field goal percentage. It’s important to note that league-wide field goal percentage drops in clutch time – defined by NBA.com as the last 5 minutes of the 4th quarter or overtime with a point differential of plus/minus 5 – but there looks to be another reason for LeBron’s poorer shooting performance in the clutch: he’s been taking and missing a lot more threes. In the 2010-11 season, LeBron averaged 3.3 3-point attempts per-36 minutes for the season, but that number jumped to 5.5 attempts per-36 in the clutch. He also made a lower percentage of those 3-point attempts, as his mark dropped from 33 percent during the season to 24 percent in the clutch. Both of those trends have continued this season. LeBron’s 3-point attempts per-36 minutes rise from 2.0 to 3.5 and his percentage drops from 40 percent to 20 percent in clutch time.

(As I’ll detail below, passing was a bit of a weakness last season as well, but there’s a reason behind it, and it’s been corrected this year.)

Strengths

The only reason that he has been able to keep his points per-36 steady in the clutch this season is because of his insane ability to get to the free throw line in clutch time. Already one of just three players taking more than 8.0 free throws per game, LeBron more than doubles the rate at which he gets to the line in clutch time, attempting 16.9 free throws per-36 minutes in the clutch. The fact that his free throw percentage drops slightly is mitigated by the sheer volume of them he attempts. It’s interesting to note that he also more than doubled his free throw rate in the clutch last year, raising it from 7.8 to 17.3 attempts per-36, and raising his free throw percentage from 76 percent to 85 percent. His ability to get to the line is a large part of what enabled him to post a points per-36 over 10% higher in the clutch than during the rest of the season last year.

Another constant for LeBron across each of the last two seasons in crunch time is an increase in his rebound rate. Since coming to Miami, LeBron is a clutch rebounder. Last year, he averaged 6.9 rebounds per-36 minutes and had a 11.4% rebound rate. Those numbers rose to 8.4 and 13.2%, respectively, in the clutch. This year, he has blown those numbers out of the water. Averaging 8.1 rebounds per-36 on the season, that number jumps to 14.1 per-36 and his rebound rate rises from 13.2% to 20.2% in the clutch.

While his assist rates and turnover rate all dropped last season, this year his assist rates have risen and his turnover rate has stayed static. The lack of assists and turnovers in the clutch last season is likely due to the fact that his usage rate rose 6.2% and he attempted 3.0 more field goals per-36 minutes in the clutch last season than throughout the rest of the year. He was passing less, so he had less chances to both assist baskets and turn the ball over. His assists per-36 dropped from 6.5 to 3.7 in the clutch last season, while his turnovers fell from 3.3 to 2.9. This all supports the theory that he was trying to go it alone entirely too much last year. He heard the chatter, the narrative and the criticism and he decided to take the game into his own hands even if the situation didn’t necessarily call for it.

This year, he’s letting the game come to him more and not always forcing shots in the clutch, as we all saw the other night when he passed up the opportunity for a game-winner to drop the ball off to a widen open Udonis Haslem. His usage rate has seen a smaller jump in the clutch this year, 4.1%. He’s taking the same amount of shots per-36 minutes in the clutch as during the rest of the game this season, but his assist rates have nearly doubled while his turnover rate has stayed just about the same. He’s raised his season average of 6.6 assists per-36 in the season to 9.9 per-36 in the clutch this year, while his turnovers per-36 have risen from 3.3 to 4.2 but his turnover rate has risen only slightly from 10.57 to 10.80.

Lastly, while LeBron both stole the ball less and blocked less shots in the clutch last season, this year he has started blocking shots at a higher rate in the clutch. His defensive rating in the clutch has since gone down from 109.0 last season to 104.9 this year.

So since coming to Miami, LeBron has scored at or above his usual level in the clutch over the last two seasons, has generally been a much better rebounder, been over twice as good at getting to the free throw line, has turned the ball over less often and been about as good as he normally is on defense. Defense, rebounding, getting to the free throw line and avoiding turnovers are the kind of things that can swing games. Creating extra possessions with offensive rebounds, ending possessions with defensive rebounds, getting the other team in foul trouble and into the bonus and not letting the other team get easy transition baskets with turnovers are all things that contribute to winning basketball, and LeBron has consistently excelled at them in clutch situations since he’s been in Miami. He’s a worse shooter down the stretch, but so is nearly everybody else in the league. It’s high time we widened our visual spectrum when determining whether or not LeBron James, like many others, are clutch.

Paroxysm At Gametime: Tony Allen Barking + Grizzlies @ Raptors Notebook

March 5, 2012 in by with 7 Comments

Photo by hand-nor-glove on Flickr

On Friday, I covered the Grizzlies/Raptors game at the Air Canada Centre. What follows is a piece of audio I gathered that I will never forget, as well as some observations and quotes. My notebook:

  • I’m just going to get this out of the way at the top. As I wrote in my Tony Allen/DeMar DeRozan piece, Allen quite enjoyed the fact that Dwane Casey referred to him as a pitbull. He asked me to repeat what Casey said twice, then stood up from his locker and… well… listen to this:
Tony Allen barking [ 0:01 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | Download (1435)
  • Pregame, seeing Brevin Knight milling around by the court made me feel even older than when I hear him on TV. I’m not ready for him to be a color commentator. I’m just not.
  • Watching Quincy Pondexter shoot before the game made me think back to Summer League 2010. Man, I thought he and Craig Brackins were going to be hitting jumpers for the Hornets for years.
  • Gary Forbes and Jeremy Pargo spent a good 10-15 minutes catching up before tip. Unless you’re Noam Schiller, you might not know they both played in Israel in 2010. I can only assume that they were arguing about Israeli food the same way Noam and Ethan Sherwood Strauss do on Twitter all the time.
  • Speaking of food, Josh Selby was scarfing down melons in the locker room pregame. Also in that locker room: Tony Allen rapping.
  • I’ll have something longer on James Johnson here soon, so I’ll be brief: he’s really impressed me lately. Defensively, he made Rudy Gay work on both ends, even though Gay finished with great numbers. Forced tough shots, made him pass it off, especially in the first half. Toronto ran plays for Johnson in the post, something that I didn’t anticipate seeing too much before the season started. Bargnani’s injury has pretty much sucked for the Raptors, but it’s been good in the sense that it’s given others the chance to do more. He’s a better player than he was when the Raptors acquired him last season.
  • Tony Allen is exactly how you’d think he would be if you’ve seen his postgame interviews on TV or you follow him on Twitter: unpredictable, engaging, fun, a bit of a whirlwind. And loud. Here’s how that postgame interview started:

JH: So DeMar DeRozan was pretty much a non-factor tonight…

TA: What you saying? Hold on, timeout. Say that again.

JH: DeMar DeRozan was pretty much a non-factor tonight.

TA: One more time.

JH: DeMar DeRozan, pretty much a non-factor.

TA: True that.

  • I’m going to share some other Casey quotes here. From shootaround, on that Allen/DeRozan matchup:

It’s going to be huge because he’s going to try to get into him, be physical with him, make it tough on him. And he’s going to have to meet that challenge. DeMar’s going to have to meet that challenge as far as being physical, staying low, attacking his feet, not giving in to the physical play.

  • Also from shootaround, he stressed that protecting the ball was the No. 1 priority. The Grizzlies ended up with 10 steals and 24 points off turnovers. They won by three points. Tough.

Our thing is we’ve gotta take care of the basketball because they’re one of the top teams in the league in steals and also creating points off of turnovers, so we’ve gotta make sure we take care of the ball, not try to do something, skip a letter of an alphabet as I call it, and keep it simple. Because if you don’t, it turns into points. Memphis and Miami are the two top teams — if you make a mistake offensively, they capitalize on it.

  • Andrea Bargnani is coming back soonish for Toronto and it’s not the same as bringing a guy back in an average season, where you’d bring guys along slowly:

We’d like to get some practices in but the problem is we have no practices. The shootarounds are the closest thing we’re going to get to a practice. And that’s unfortunate because he needs that. Personally I would feel more comfortable with practices under his belt. I thought it was doing Jerryd Bayless and also Kleiza disservices because the lack of practice time they had, to come back and go through it and test their ankles and knees out… and that’s kind of the traditional thing you do in the NBA is give the guy a practice and not just throw him out there straight from an injury.

  • Another example of how this season is different:

Time management, for one thing, is huge. Just because of the fact you don’t have a lot of practice time. You try to get things in on the fly. I’ve caught myself introducing new plays as first plays of the game, ATO’s [after timeouts], and situations like that, which is difficult to do but sometimes that’s the only way you can get a good look at it and try something. We kind of experimented with our zone on the fly. So as a coach that’s something I did learn was time management, practice management, things we can work on in short periods of time.

LeBron James and the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

March 5, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo via Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

While no specific panels were directly related to him, you couldn’t possibly have come to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston and not thought about, heard about or talked about LeBron James. Nearly every basketball-related panel mentioned him in some form or another. Whether it was an extended discussion of his capabilities as a player or just an off-hand comment about whether or not he is “clutch,” you couldn’t help but notice that the specter of the league’s most talented player was hanging over the proceedings.

One particular research paper at Sloan detailing the effects of pressure on NBA players was especially pertinent. The paper described concentration tasks such as taking free throws as those that often result in players having increased self-focus, which can lead to underperformance on these tasks. And who did the researchers choose to exemplify this phenomenon?

LEBRON IMAGE IN CLUTCH DISCUSSION! DRINK! #SSAC
March 2, 2012 1:17 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@HPbasketball
Hardwood Paroxysm
Picture of LeBron for "is choking real?" slide. I see you trollin'. #ssac
March 2, 2012 1:17 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@YahooBDL
Ball Don't Lie

 

LeBron prefers to take guys off the dribble from the perimeter and try to get a layup or create contact and draw a foul in crunch time. Free throws should mean pretty easy points for LeBron, a career 75% free throw shooter. However, that number drops to 71% in crunch time this season according to NBA.com’s StatsCube. (For the record, his FT% in the clutch last year was exactly the same as it was for the rest of the game, 76%) More than just free throws though, fans often expect players of LeBron’s caliber to take and make game-winning shots.

Naturally, on the first night of the conference, LeBron gave his detractors a little more ammo with which to take aim by passing up a game-winner against the Utah Jazz in favor of a bounce pass to wide-open Udonis Haslem, who promptly bricked the shot. LeBron made the right basketball play by passing out of a double team to the open man (and boy was that pass a nice one), but many the media and plenty of fans on Twitter hammered him for not taking the game into his own hands and deciding the outcome. This game was just further proof that LeBron is unclutch, not a winner, and incapable of seizing the big moment and making it his own, they said. Others, however, disagreed. LeBron was really the only reason his team was in the game. He was 8-f0r-9 in the fourth quarter and had 17 points. And he made the right basketball play with the game on the line. Haslem was wide open. Even Jeff Van Gundy, MVP of Day 1 of Sloan, agreed during ABC’s telecast of the Heat-Lakers game on Sunday. He compared it to Jordan passing to Steve Kerr for the game-winner in the Finals, noting that people praise Jordan for his great, unselfish player in crunch time. The same likely would have happened for LeBron is Haslem had made the shot, but instead the narrative goes that LeBron shrinks in the clutch.

Being that the opportunity for LeBron was not a free throw but rather the choice between passing and shooting, I decided to look up the FG% for home and road players in the last 30 seconds of games where their team was trailing by 3 points or less so far this season. This is an extremely narrow definition of clutch time, but it most accurately describes the situation LeBron faced Friday night. Similarly to free throws, home players have shot a lower percentage than road players in these scenarios. Players on the road attempting shots within 30 seconds or less on the clock and trailing by 3 points or less had a 35.9 FG% through February 28, 2012, while home players had an FG% of just 31.4%. If a player is going to be shooting a shot that has only a 31.4% chance of going in, would your rather that player be shooting over a double team, likely off-balance, or wide open and stepping into the shot? Without knowing who the two players were, most people would almost undoubtedly choose the latter option, but when they hear that the two players are LeBron and Haslem, respectively, they change their minds.

The NBA players under pressure research paper was not the only panel that touched on LeBron. In the Coaching Analytics panel, Jeff Van Gundy addressed LeBron’s on-court value as a player.

Van Gundy: "To all the people that want to bash LeBron over whatever. Well give him to me and we'll figure out the last three minutes"#ssac
March 2, 2012 2:58 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@NerdNumbers
Andres Alvarez

 

This is a sentiment I largely agree with and have argued in favor of before. The idea behind Van Gundy’s statement is that LeBron is the best and most impactful player in the league both over the course of a single game and the course of the season, and that to isolate specific plays from a period of time that represents less than 1 percent of his total minutes played for the season amounts to refusing to see the forest because you’re captivated by staring at a small cluster of trees.

In the Basketball analytics panel, Van Gundy espoused a similar sentiment.

"The game is as much a first quarter game as a fourth quarter game." - JVG, indirecty espousing LeBron's value #SSAC #TrueHoopMIT
March 2, 2012 2:57 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@JADubin5
Jared Dubin

 

Rob Mahoney also had an interesting take on this subject a couple weeks ago at the New York Times’ Off the Dribble blog. LeBron is among the best players in the league at deciding games before crunch time, but lay fans generally don’t seem to care about that. They like the drama that comes with the specific period of time known as ‘clutch time’, ignoring that most games don’t come down to the final shot and that players who help you win the other, larger portion of your games are just as, if not more important than those that help you win the close ones. They also mostly limit ‘clutchness’ to the making of game-winning shots, and discount assists, rebounding and defense in these evaluations.

Even the more advanced analytical panels had their own spins on LeBron. The “Court Vision: New Visual and Spacial Analytics for the NBA” panel had a somewhat surprising tidbit related to LeBron’s shooting range.

This study argues LeBron James shoots effectively from more places on the court than Kevin Durant. Blame Harvard. #SSAC
March 2, 2012 5:21 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@BeckleyMason
Beckley Mason

 

Court Vision attempted to quantify and evaluate how many of 1,284 shooting “cells” on the floor a player was effective from, and called that a player’s Range%.

LeBron James' Range % is 23.9. Meaning he scores a point per possession from 23.9% of the scoring grid, over the last three (?) years. #ssac
March 2, 2012 5:22 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@CoupNBA
Couper Moorhead

 

Range%, coupled with the other metric created by researcher Kirk Goldsberry, Spread%, a measure of how many of the 1,284 shooting cells a player had attempted at least one field goal from, attempted to give us a better idea of who the best shooters in the NBA actually are. (His conclusion, unsurprisingly, was that the best shooter was either Steve Nash or Ray Allen. This also happened to be my favorite panel/research paper of the weekend, and I’m telling you that regardless of whether or not you care.)

During a live B.S. Report will Bill Simmons, Marc Cuban let slip that the Mavericks used some sort of spatial analysis in their defensive strategy against LeBron and the Heat in last year’s NBA Finals.

Glimpses of Mavs' winning strategy vs. the Heat: "It was where we put LeBron and D.Wade on the court." -- Cuban. #SSAC
March 3, 2012 4:41 pm via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
@ChuckSalter
Chuck Salter

 

Spatial analysis is just beginning. As I detailed here, researchers are already analyzing rebounding and shooting, and it won’t be long before they eventually get around to defense and passing and then start delving into the intricacies of each.

Finally, in the Franchises in Transition panel, host and General Manager of the Houston Rockets Daryl Morey addressed the value of superstars, and specifically LeBron.

Morey: The NBA, as opposed to other leagues, is very star driven. Lebron leaving Cleveland caused a 40 win swing. #SSAC
March 3, 2012 11:05 am via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@SportsLaw101
Sports Law 101

 

Superstars in the NBA have a huge impact on the game, more than any other sport according Morey later in that same panel. And the very best of those superstars, like LeBron, can often swing the fate of entire franchises, or the league itself.

 

Remembering the 1962 Season: Oscar Robertson Averages A Triple Double

March 4, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by UJ Nero (Flickr)

 “Looking back, I never fully realized what he was doing,” [Jack] Twyman said. “It was not called a triple-double. We just went out every night trying to win. I don’t think Oscar or anyone really worried about statistics.”

- Via “Unnoticed Then, Oscar Robertson’s Triple-Double Unparalleled”

The triple-double is a most intoxicating basketball feat. It announces and confirms a player’s all-around, comprehensive ability to control a game. It’s mastering the art of scoring, the grueling task of rebounding and the finesse duty of passing.

And no one did the did the triple-double quite like Oscar Robertson. Or did it quite as much. His career total of 181 triple-doubles is 43 ahead of 2nd-place Magic Johnson.

Robertson accomplished the bulk of his triple-double mania in the first 6 years of his career (1961 – 1966). In fact, if you average out his total points, rebounds and assists from these seasons you get the following: 30.4 ppg, 10.7 apg, and 10.0 rpg.

But only during the 1961-62 campaign did Oscar accomplish the triple -double average within a single season.

Oscar Robertson entered the NBA in 1960-61 and was the long-awaited savior for the Cincinnati Royals. The franchise had suffered moribund back-t0-back 19-win seasons in 1959 and 1960. These atrocious campaigns were mostly the result of the paralysis suffered by Royals big man Maurice Stokes at the end of the 1958 season. Without the big forward, Jack Twyman valiantly tried to keep the team afloat.  In 1960 he became the 1st player (along with Wilt Chamberlain that season) to average over 30 points a game.

But Twyman as great as he was, a hall of famer in fact, was no Oscar.

Robertson immediately turned the Royals around his rookie year pushing them to a much-improved 33-46 record behind his 30.5 ppg, 10.1 rpg and 9.7 apg. Almost a triple-double average, but not quite. The Big O would have to settle for the Rookie of the Year Award, 1st-Team All-NBA honors and being named the All-Star Game MVP.

Although the Royals missed out on the postseason, they were obviously on the way up with such a devastating, unique player in tow.

Robertson stood 6’5″ and weighed a good 210 lbs. That’s a big load for a point guard playing in today’s NBA, let alone in 1961. A decade earlier, Robertson could have easily slid into the PF spot for most teams. But actually, Robertson did play with a tremendous amount of power. He would use that bulk to pummel opponents into submission just wearing and bearing down on them. Getting to a favored spot on the court, he could easily rise up to shoot over the shorter defender or just make a spin and be at the rim for a layup.

The Royals opened the 1961-62 season in St. Louis taking on the Hawks. Robertson led the Royals to victory with 35 points and 15 rebounds and helped set up Twyman for 39 points. A little over a week later in the home opener at Cincinnati, the Big O again led the attack:

After sparking the Cincinnati Royals to a 44-point first quarter in their home opener, Oscar Robertson scored six points in the final two minutes to squelch a Syracuse Nats rally and produce a 139-132 Royals victory…

Robertson also set a Cincinnati Garden record with 8 assists in the first quarter.

A little over a month later in early December, Robertson orchestrated an absolute drubbing of the last-place Chicago Packers. The only bright spot for the Packers that season was the phenomenal rookie Walt Bellamy. But there was nothing Bells and company could do this night to thwart Oscar:

 With Oscar Robertson scoring 32 points and also leading his team in rebounds and assists, the Cincinnati Royals defeated the Chicago Packers 133-117…

Robertson finished with 20 assists, feeding off 15 in the first half when he made only seven points. He also led his team with 15 of their 70 rebounds, while the Packers got 60.

Robertson was one of the more demanding teammates in league history and had surly, difficult personality. However, the demanding tone was because the Big O expected perfection and execution. As the season progressed it was clear the Royals were still on the ascent with Bob Boozer, Wayne Embry and Bucky Bockhorn filling out the starting 5 with Robertson and Twyman. Oscar was quite pleased with the formation:

Oscar Robertson, Cincinnati’s great scorer, rebounder and defensive stalwart in the National Basketball Association, said today the Royals have improved over last year because the team is “working together more, playing together.”

The former Cincinnati University All-America voiced the opinion that the Royals are better balanced in scoring than the Philadelphia Warriors in the NBA.

As it happened, the Royals played the Warriors soon after Oscar gave that quote and the Royals won 151-133. 4 players scored between 19 and 28 for the Royals in the victory. Philadelphia was led by the 54 points of Wilt Chamberlain.

The Royals were 27-21 after that victory and would finish the season 43-37, the best record since the 1954 season when the franchise, then in Rochester, went 44-28. The record was good enough for 2nd place in the Western Division.

Robertson’s regular season was quite remarkable, even leaving aside the triple-double average. He shot .478 from the field and .822 from the free throw line. Extraordinarily efficient shooting for a primary ball-handler in the 1960s. He and Larry Costello were the only point guards to shot like that from the field and the line at the time.

And the amount of free throws Oscar took were plentiful. That load of his proved so unbearable for so many opponents he  wound up taking 11 free throws a night. Good enough for 10th all-time among single seasons for a guard.

The 12.5 rebounds per game and 985 total rebounds remain the records for a guard in a single season. He and Tom Gola of the Philadelphia Warriors remain the only guards to average over 10 rebounds per game for a season.

Finally, the assists he handed out pretty much shattered the previous single-season record. In 1960, Bob Cousy became the 1st player to eclipse the 9.0 apg mark with 9.5. Then the next year along came Oscar who edged out that average with 9.7. Then this season, 1962, Oscar blew the mark to shreds averaging 11.4 making him the 1st player to surpass the 10.0 apg barrier.

In the postseason, the Royals would be bounced 3-games-to-1 by the Detroit Pistons, led by Bailey Howell, in the opening round. Robertson for his part did continue his triple-double ways in the series with 29 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists per game while shooting .519 from the field and .795 from the line. A few others have close (Wilt, Rajon Rondo, Magic Johnson), but only Jason Kidd has joined Oscar in the highly exclusive triple-double club for the postseason.

The Royals, now moved to the Eastern Division, reached their peak in 1963 and 1964. Both seasons they lost to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Finals, including an unforgettable Game 7 in 1963 where Oscar went off for 43 points and Sam Jones of the Celtics scored 47. Steadily thereafter, the Royals descended into mediocrity and ultimately Oscar was traded to Milwaukee. With the Bucks, he would finally capture that elusive title alongside Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bob Dandridge in 1971.

But that 1962 Oscar Robertson… that was the Big O of NBA lore.

He’s not the 1964 MVP. He’s not a 1971 NBA champion. And 1960 Olympic gold medalist? Forget about it. Those aren’t the triplets that get the imagination wondering and the mind spinning.

30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists per game.

Those are the triplets that bewitch, bother and bewilder the boggled mind. Several other players have reached an apex as high as Oscar’s 1962 season… but the triple-double?

That’s the M.O. of the Big O.

The 15-Footer 3/4/2012: Showdown Sunday

March 4, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qwW8lStDVs w=600 h=400]

New York Knickerbockers vs. Boston Celtics (1 EST)

This isn’t the 1st time that Jeremy Lin has faced the Celtics as a New York Knick. But this is the 1st time he has as a Linsational starting PG. Almost a month ago, Lin played 6 minutes and scored 2 points Boston. His next game would be against New Jersey and thus began Linsanity. Although intriguing matchups abound (creaky knee Garnett vs. creaky knee Amar’e), Lin and Rajon Rondo should be the funnest one to keep an eye on.

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (3:30 EST)

Obviously Kobe will seek revenge for Wade’s hatchet job in the All-Star Game. Absolutely nothing else to concern yourself with here.

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmom7shnrn0 w=400 h=300]

Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors (6 EST)

Warriors. Raptors. Fighters. Dinosaurs.

Insert artistic interpretation.

 

New Jersey Nets vs. Charlotte LOLcats (6 EST)

The Brookie Monster is in, chocolatey chip form. Over his last two games he’s averaged 33 points on 55% field goal shooting and 80% shooting from the free throw line. But he’s also averaging a robust 4.5 rebounds too in these 2 games.

And that’s the way the Brookie crumbles.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets (7 EST)

Let’s play a game. I provide the following the percentages and you decide which one is Chandler Parson’s FG%, 3PT% and FT%…

36.4%, 42.9%, 28.4%.

Good luck.

The Chet Walker Cup! – Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers (7 EST)

These two teams last met on February 1st and the 76ers handled the Bulls quite easily, 98 to 82. The Sixers in typical fashion for this season posted 5 players in double figures including three from the bench.

But don’t expect too many more points than what was put up in the 1st contest. These are the 1st and 2nd best defenses in the NBA (per basketball-reference’s defensive ratings).

Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns (8 EST)

DeMarcus Cousins and the Kings visit the Valley of the Sun and there’s nothing else to do but boogie in the glorious rays of solar glory.

[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jkWqnuQ9x0M w=400 h=300]

(Plus that Isaiah Thomas is trying to stake his claim as the best last pick of the 2nd round ever. 8 straight double-digit scoring performances with 50%+ shooting in all except two)

 Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST)

A great nightcap and hopefully Manu Ginobili returns from his oblique injury for the game. But  I would like to give a little love for Tim Duncan. Sure he ain’t what he used to be, but he’s still a good center in this league. One of only 19 players averaging over 14 points and 8 rebounds.

Furthermore, Duncan is doing this at age 35. Here’s the list of NBA players who’ve pulled off the 14/8 while being that age…

Kevin Willis, Elvin Hayes, David Robinson, Robert Parish, Karl Malone, Artis Gilmore, Charles Barkley and Wilt Chamberlain.

And Tim Duncan and Kevin Garnett both joining that list this year. Give the old folks some love.

Paroxysm At Gametime: Tony Allen Makes DeMar DeRozan’s Life Very Difficult

March 3, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by andrecrins on Flickr

Pregame at the Air Canada Centre, Tony Allen walks onto the court with teammate Josh Selby. He’s not happy with how Selby is performing his rookie duties. “Damn, rookie,” the seven-year veteran says loudly enough for anyone on that side of the floor to hear. “He don’t even want to be a rookie. I can tell the problems he had at Kansas.”

“Nothing happened at Kansas,” says a miffed Selby.

“I don’t want to hear about it, you a rookie.” Allen’s lips don’t stop moving as he stretches on the baseline, moving on to Grizzlies color commentator Brevin Knight. Allen says he took the second bus to the game. “I was a 90 minute dude,” Knight responds. “The rules say you gotta be in the locker room 90 minutes before the game. I was there 90 minutes before the game.”

While Selby, Jeremy Pargo and Quincy Pondexter shoot corner threes, Allen begins shooting directly in front of the hoop. Eventually he backs up to shoot a series of midrange jumpers. To call his form merely awkward would be kind, his left elbow jutting out so far you wonder how any of these shots go in. But they almost all do, even if he’s not likely to take many of them when it’s gametime.

At gametime, Allen is matched up with DeMar DeRozan. Pregame, the Raptors guard is also shooting from midrange. But he’s quiet. He’s practicing purposefully, preparing. Overall it has been a down year for DeRozan. He spent his summer expanding his range and it’s translated into more long twos and threes and a reduced shooting percentage. With new weapons in your arsenal, it’s tough to know which to use in different situations. But it’s getting better.

While making headlines in Toronto for a misguided tweet, DeRozan has been playing his best ball of the season. In the five games leading up to Friday’s against Memphis, he averaged 24.8 points on 53 percent shooting. Toronto coach Dwane Casey said earlier in the season that expectations were “way, way high” for DeRozan and that it’s been harder for him in the absence of No. 1 option Andrea Bargnani. “With Andrea being out he’s like the queen bee,” Casey said. “He’s just now getting used to that.”

Casey’s personal expectations are in line with how DeRozan has been playing lately. “Playing in rhythm,” Casey identified as what he wants to see from the 22-year-old. “He was getting jump shots, he just wasn’t making them. Now, the same shots he has a better rhythm and they’re going in. But the main thing, I think what helps him with his rhythm is he’s getting a balance of going to the basket, getting to the free throw line, seeing the ball go through the hole, giving him a little bit more confidence.”

Allen’s job is to destroy that confidence, that rhythm. He will talk trash. He will be physical. He will annoy you. Casey calls the Grizzlies one of the most mentally and physically tough teams in the league and says it all starts with Allen. “He’s one of those pitbulls that just sets the tone for their team on the defensive end,” he says with admiration. Allen loves the description — when it’s passed along, he demands to hear it two more times before standing up from his locker and erupting with more of a roar than a bark.

DeRozan’s first touch comes a minute into the game. He catches in the post, Allen crowds him and forces him into a tough turnaround. Miss.

Less than two minutes later, DeRozan challenges Allen, driving left and getting a good look. But he can’t convert the layup.

Next offensive possession, he drives again and the look isn’t as easy. Allen blocks it.

DeRozan wouldn’t get another shot off until less than four minutes to go in the half. When he puts the ball on the floor in the corner, Allen reaches at his dribble. He almost loses it, but manages to keep control and use Allen’s aggressiveness against him, driving and scoring. His only other shot attempt was a desperation three at the end of the shot clock with Allen draped on him.

At halftime, DeRozan has two points on five shots in 19 and a half minutes. It’s a line expected of him two years ago, not now. The Raptors have the lead, but in order to keep it they want to establish their best scorer in uniform. First possession of the third, he works to get open and gets the ball on the right wing. Allen meets him, DeRozan drives left and throws up a highly contested shot. It’s way short.

For the rest of the game, whether guarded by Allen or by O.J. Mayo down the stretch, he takes only two shots: a made layup on a fast break and a missed baseline jumper, the kind of open look you mess up when your rhythm is off. With how frustrated he looks and how difficult it is just to make a catch, you might feel sorry for him. But he won’t get much sympathy in the NBA after a four-point outing in a three-point loss. He’ll just have to get better.

“Frustration’s a part of this league,” Casey said when speaking of DeRozan’s uncharacteristically immature tweet and it applies equally here. “How you measure a lot of players in this league is how they deal with frustration because there’s not a night you’re going to come out there on the floor and things are going to be perfect. There’s not a game that’s going to be perfect, so the way you deal with that and bounce back is how much you grow in this league and how good you are as a player. Kobe Bryant, all the great players in this league, handle frustration, setbacks, and they keep coming at you and bounce back quickly.”

Allen credits Grizzlies assistant video coordinator Jason Marsh and assistant coach Dave Joerger for getting him ready for his individual matchups. He credits his teammates for their work on defense, but also takes pride in shutting guys down. “I be trying to be the All-Star in that category,” Allen says. “That’s what I try to do personally with my mindset but as a whole it’s a team thing. I gotta credit my teammates for being the guys that they are, blue-collar hard workers. Some of them got finesse and you know they gel it in as a team. As we’re playing hard, we’re playing for each other.”

In advance of receiving scouting reports and video breakdowns, Allen’s already versed in his opponents’ tendencies. “I’m doing it on my own. I been doing it beforehand, he said. ”Stay ready, you ain’t gotta get ready.”

The Raptors are in Memphis in less than two weeks. DeRozan will have to be ready. He knows how Allen can make you play like a rookie.

What’s Going On With Lamar Odom?

March 2, 2012 in by with 3 Comments

Photo via Alenmurr on Flickr.

“Mark asks a fundamental question of anybody in our franchise: Are they in or are they not in?” Carlisle said. “Our fans want to know that Lamar’s in. Our players want to know that Lamar’s in. It’s not about how many points he’s scoring or rebounds; those things are a factor. Our fans, our players want to see the guy playing like his pants are on fire and we haven’t seen that so far and that’s got to change.”

via Rick Carlisle fed up with Lamar Odom | ESPNDallas.com

Is Lamar Odom in?

Honestly, probably not. And that’s fine. In fact, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Not after the tumult Odom’s personal life has undergone in the past year, which has continued in recent days as his father has taken ill. Not after the reports that he seriously considered taking a year or more away from the game to clear his head. And the more time passes with his status in limbo, the clearer it becomes that that probably would have been the right call.

Odom’s situation is hard to wrap one’s head around. His fall from grace has been stunning to say the least—from Sixth Man of the Year to the most high-profile D-League demotion in NBA history, from one of the most valuable contributors on a back-to-back champion to a non-factor on the team that knocked his Lakers out of the playoffs last Spring. His story serves as a reminder that millionaire athletes with superhuman physical abilities aren’t immune to real-world tragedy. Forming an opinion on it is difficult to do without placing a value judgment on how an individual responds to personal hardship. To make the “these guys are ultra-rich, they should just suck it up” argument is to dismiss one’s own potential to see their job performance slip when life gets in the way. At the same time, though, the Mavericks’ desire for a straight answer is hard to be mad at. They have a title to defend and millions of dollars invested.

Odom does not seem to be in the frame of mind to be playing basketball, in any way shape or form. A D-League detour isn’t going to magically fix his head or his heart. If anything, the high-profile demotion could be detrimental to his confidence, even if it’s only for one game. Mark Cuban says he’s not interested in buying Odom’s contract out, but it’s hard to see this story ending any other way. The Mavericks need to separate themselves from the cloud of uncertainty, and Odom needs some time off and some pressure lifted. If he can take a breather and come back next season with renewed resolve, everyone wins.

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