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No, You’re Wrong: J.R. Smith, Average NBA Players, And All-Star Weekend

February 17, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo By Seth Johnston

Connor Huchton and Scott Leedy like to argue. Instead of shouting at each other on Twitter, they’ve decided to try something more constructive: an actual, semi-coherent email conversation. What you see below are the results. 

Leedy: So, we’re almost 30 games into this bizarre season. LeBron James has been completely absurd, the Sixers and Pacers have surprised and sustained (for the most part), Jeremy Lin is currently saving the Knicks while trying to break the internet, everyone sucks at offense, and apparently Jamal Crawford is a better point guard than Raymond Felton. There’s so much to talk about, and it all feels so condensed. With that said, what has struck you the most so far this year? Has the product been poor like Charles Barkley said recently? Are you enjoying this season as much as the previous? More so?

Huchton: Last season was one of the greatest in NBA history. This season isn’t, but who cares? Basketball remains fun all the same. Scoring is down, but the play has improved lately, and the games are close. I’m just happy to watch all of it. And saying Jamal Crawford is a better point guard than Raymond Felton this season is like saying carrots taste better than onion soup. Not the best distinction. Also, I’m sure that a simple search of Internet.com will provide plenty about Jeremy Lin. This can be the one current Internet item that focuses on something else.

Leedy: I hate to keep talking about the Knicks, because right now they are the center of the sports universe, and New York already has an annoying superiority complex. However, I  think the re-insertion of Carmelo Anthony and the likely addition of JR Smith are both things that need to be discussed. Now, we both know I have a borderline creepy infatuation with Smith and am a supporter of Carmelo Anthony, but I’m interested to see what you think about both players. Can Lin and Anthony work together? Is Melo going to be a victim of a tougher schedule coming back (versus the cake schedule that Lin faced)? Is Smith a good fit for this team? I think D’Antoni’s system is a great fit for Smith, but we’ll have to see how many possessions Smith kidnaps and how much of a liability he is defensively.

Huchton: I’m not a ‘fan’ of either player’s game. I don’t share your infatuation with offense-only scorers, but I think Anthony should fit pretty easily back into the fold. There isn’t a good reason for him to hijack the offense late in games, as Lin is more than capable of running an offense at any point in the game. As for the possible addition of Smith, I’m far more skeptical. The Knicks are a really fun team right now, and I’m not sure how he fits into the great chemistry the team currently possesses. Smith loves to take over an offense when he has the chance, for better or worse. I’m not sure the Knicks need that, but he’s likely a better, if higher usage option, than Bill Walker. So if he’s playing 15-20 minutes a game as the backup SF and getting a few minutes at shooting guard, that’s fine, and he likely helps the Knicks. But other than that, I’m not sure. But really, how much can we possibly talk about the Knicks? It’s a big league out there.

Leedy: I want to know when Carmelo Anthony became a “offense killer”. Pretty much all of his teams in Denver were well above the league average in offensive efficiency, and many years they were near the top. Does he have flaws? Yes, absolutely. He holds the ball too much at times and doesn’t probably create enough shots for teammates. However, I think we have evidence that if you build the right kind of offense around him, he can absolutely be the centerpiece of a potent attack. An issue arises once we place Carmelo in D’Antoni’s point guard-centric, free-flowing offensive that doesn’t exactly fit Carmelo’s perception of himself and his skills. I do believe that Carmelo has the necessary physical skills to make this work. It’s all about his willingness to change his approach.

As for Smith, I think D’Antoni is possibly the perfect coach for him in terms of offensive optimization. Smith is absolutely one of the best and most efficient shooters in this league, and D’Antoni offense has thrived on putting talented shooters in a position to knock down open shots. I also sort of scoff at this notion that “he’s a better Bill Walker”; Bill Walker is not very good, JR Smith can absolutely change and win games for you. Yes, he’s crazy, yes he can possibly wreak havoc on your chemistry, but from a pure talent standpoint, Smith and Bill Walker shouldn’t be in the same sentence.

As for the rest of the league, I’m feeling a little blue. The Blazers are in a state of panic that I’m not sure the situation warrants, and the Nuggets have succumbed to some unfortunate injuries, which has killed my, “the Nuggets are the greatest team of all time” thunder. So I’m content with focusing on the one thing that seems somewhat exciting in my NBA life.

Huchton: How do you feel about the changes in the All-Star Weekend format? I’m just waiting for them to bring in the “Low-Fat Milk Senior Challenge”. I’d love to see some former players, now of Social Security age, duke it out. Maybe Andre Miller will get an invite.

Leedy: Isn’t that what the Celebrity Game is at this point? Did you see Mitch Richmond last year? I’m not a huge fan of the dunk contest only having one round. I want as many chances to see awesome dunks as I can get. The fan vote thing is also kind of annoying, but that’s where everything is headed these days, so I’m not surprised. I think it would be way more interested if fans voted for playing time. Then we could somehow all vote that Kobe never plays, just to see how angry he gets. Or we could force the West to play all point guards, while the East played nothing but centers and forwards. The possibilities are endless. I do like the idea of drafting for the Rookie-Sophomore game, though I wish they did it at the event and picked two players to be captains. That way it would be way more interesting and awkward to see which guys were still there at the end of the draft.

Huchton: Yeah, an NHL-style format would be a good idea for the Rookie-Sophomore game. I also think it should be a requirement that one player is chosen every year from the worst team in basketball, just as a way of exciting the depressed fans of said team. Boris Diaw is ready for one last hurrah.

Leedy: That’s fine, but it should be the worst player from the worst team. Also, they should let the coach of the worst team coach in the all star game, as a reprieve of sorts, ya know?

Huchton: We always talk about the best and worst players in the league, but who’s the most average player in the NBA? This is an important question.

Leedy: I can tell you who the most “makes Scott want to jump through a window player” is: Wesley Matthews. As for the most average player in the NBA, it’s a tie between Markieff Morris and JJ Barea (according to PER). Courtney Lee is in the discussion, but you know who my choice is? Landry Fields. His PER is just below league average, but everything he does screams “average NBA player”. That’s no knock against Landry. I think he’s a fine rotation player, but basically he’s useful because he’s sort of average at everything.

Huchton: Those are all decent picks (except Fields, who is the greatest player in the history of the sport), but the only real answer here is Mr. Chris Wilcox, responsible for a 14.5 PER and completely acceptable post production. And isn’t that symbolic of this season? Perfectly acceptable, despite its comparably dilapidated form.


A Needle And Spark

February 17, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Via ViaMoi on Flickr

BETTER NEWS: CHRIS PAUL IS GREAT DOWN THE STRETCH — The Clippers are 8-3 in games decided by six points or less, and those eight wins include ones over the Blazers, Heat, Mavericks, Nuggets, Jazz, Magic and 76ers. Part of the reason is that Paul is a wizard in crunch time. Those who watched him in New Orleans knew he could execute late with the best of them, but the difference now is that Paul is scoring a a lot more and a lot more efficiently.
Last year, Paul took 111 shots total in the fourth quarter with the scoring margin less than five points. He had an effective field goal percentage (incorporating three-pointers) of just 47.3 percent on those shots. That’s not terrible all things considering — Kobe Bryant, for example, was at 46.1 percent in those spots — but it’s not elite. This year, though, Paul has already taken 48 shots in those situations and has an effective field goal percentage of 56.2. That’s insane, especially considering so many of those shots come on the same kind of isolation plays that usually lead to low-percentage looks.

Let there be no doubt that Paul is the king of crunch time in the NBA this season.

BAD NEWS: THE CLIPPERS CAN’T SHOOT FREE THROWS — The most important quality for teams that win close games is effective free throw shooting. That’s why it’s so strange that the Clippers are winning despite shooting just 67.6 percent from the line as a team. Only the Orlando Magic are worse, and that’s because they have Dwight Howard on the team.

The biggest culprits are Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who are way down at 52 and 49 percent, respectively. The Clippers can get away with benching Jordan in the final two minutes, so his low percentage can be masked. They can’t do the same with Griffin. Considering how often Griffin probably should be getting the ball late in games, that’s a problem.

via Taking Stock Of Lob City: Are The Los Angeles Clippers Contenders? – SBNation.com.

I’m one of the few guys out there who buys the Clippers.

The old school guys hate them because they heard the Lob City nickname and they hate that and because, well, the Clippers aren’t supposed to be good. It’s the same principle behind Top 25 voting in college football, that is, traditional powers get the benefit of the doubt and the non-traditional powers basically have to beat everyone by 100 just for them to say “Eh, not bad.” What’s worse, the new writers and bloggers don’t trust them either. The metrics scream “STAY AWAY FROM THIS TEAM WITH EVERYTHING YOU HAVE.”

But there I am, keeping them in the back of my mind as someone I wouldn’t be surprised at late in May.

I tend to stay away from teams that create free throws as a huge function of their offense (HELLO KITTY BACKPACKS ASSEMBLE). Those calls can absolutely vanish in the playoffs (say, in the WCF against a veteran team). ( Denver is an exemption this year because I’m basically rolling with the fun factor there and I get more scared with every game, regardless of the losses.) I like teams that can hit shots, that can play defense, that can create matchup problems most of all. The Clippers can do two of the three, and I like their prospects for that missing link in the playoffs.

Bear in mind the Mavericks weren’t a top-five defensive team last year. They were seventh in defensive efficiency. Sadly for the Clippers, they’re 23rd. So it’s not like the hill to climb is short. But there’s no reason that team shouldn’t be better defensively. Paul’s lock-down, even if his size can get problematic. Griffin’s still wet behind the ears. DeAndre is a monster who chases too much. That’s something that can be coached out. And the rest are vets. Maybe VDN can’t do it, but it should be noted their points per game allowed has dropped month to month to month, though I don’t have pace-free stats available. It’s also notable that they have a majority of quality defensive performances, and then when they fall apart, they fall apart hard. That’s something they can work through or at least avoid with a hot streak.

Most of it, though? Most of it is Paul. That’s why I believe. Because this sandbag-till-it’s-close-then-murder-everything process is working. Down the stretch as Prada notes, he’s not an assassin, he’s John Woo’s “The Killer.” The crossover and soft jumper just pops home and there’s no defender with enough energy to attack him. Griffin doesn’t have to be dominant. He has to be good with a handful of great. Butler is going to give them big games. Williams is going to give them big games. Evans rebounds. The weaknesses are there, but in a season this wide open, going with a superstar-led team that has Blake Griffin but doesn’t rely on him isn’t a bad bet.

And it all comes down to VDN, doesn’t it?

Can he screw it up? Can he somehow make them better? Can he just hold his head above water?

Coaches surprise in the playoffs. Doc Rivers was not though of well in terms of X’s and O’s before 08. George Karl had calls for his head in 2008. Lawrence Frank is a good coach who can’t win. Phil Jackson has 11 titles basically by shopping at Barnes and Noble and giving three of the top 10 players of all time the ball a lot. This stuff is an art. It’s not a science. But we’ve never seen inspiration from VDN. We’ve only seen the materials and the finished product, which hasn’t, you know, impressed.

Maybe the Clippers are as sunk as everyone says. Maybe not. But in the context of these superstars and what makes sense, you can see the blueprint working. It’s not reaching for an imaginary source of combustion. It’s not science fiction. It just needs the spark.

The Art Of Strategic Surrender. Or, Manu Ginobili Goes To Floor Town

February 17, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Via Jinx on Flickr

Flops are incredibly irritating for the team on the wrong side of the call
As Spurs fans we’ve been lucky to have some great floppers (Bowen, Manu, Horry and Oberto come to mind), but we’ve also been in the receiving end of an offensive foul call and it just sucks. That’s why I understand why opposing fans hate some of our players and even our team and why it’s understandable that we complain about it too, even if the ref made the right call. There’s something about flopping, especially the theatrical, I’ve-just-been-shot kind, that rubs most fans the wrong way and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. We should take that into account when we scoff at fans of other teams for hating on one of our players. Manu in particular is an easy target because of his histrionics when flopping and because he is not American, which leads me to my next point…

Flopping has been around for decades, is not going to ruin the game and has not been introduced by European players that come from soccer countries.

Watch this clip of Red Auerbach complaining about flopping in all it’s “get off my lawn!” glory. That’s from the 70s. Auerbach was bitching about how flopping was ruining the league four decades ago and as far as I know, right now basketball is one of the most popular sports in the world; one of the most entertaining spectacles around with an amazing level of play and displays of athletic ability. Nostalgia is a very powerful and often misguided emotion, so it’s not surprising that people still reminisce about the good ol’ days without realizing that the game has actually improved over the years and that some of the things they identify with today’s game (flopping, supertars forcing their way out of teams, only a handful of real contenders) were present back then, too.

via A Flop by Any Other Name – Pounding The Rock.

Being upset about flops is kind of like being nervous about sex. It’s a sign of inexperience and immaturity, and eventually the process becomes much more workman-like if no less enjoyable, kind of like the satisfaction of getting all your laundry done in a day so there’s nothing left to wash. Only, you know, better. You eventually learn to not only accept it, but appreciate it. That Ginobili is as efficient at it as he is is a compliment I pay now, though Spurs fans continue to protest the assertions. The fact is that it’s an art. So many players attempt it and yet wind up failing, getting the blocking call. Ginobili doesn’t just take the hit, it’s a complete performance. It’s not just being somewhere and doing something it’s selling the entire process, it’s cajoling the appearance out of the action, it’s luring the referee into a whistle blow. It’s not just mechanics. It’s performance art.

Anyone who’s worked in theater will tell you that to pretend that acting is about lines and props and “getting into character” is to ignore the technical elements and the undefinable nuance necessary to put on a show. Comedic timing is instinctive, knowing where to stand and when is not. It takes practice, refinement, and a natural ability. To be perfectly honest, flopping is more difficult than hitting free throws. You can control everything in a free throw and if you repeat the function you’ll have success. A flop you have to manage an official. It’s like dealing with a temperamental client. You have to draw his or her sympathy while maintaining his respect. You have to demand his or her attention while not drawing attention to your efforts to draw his or her attention.

Ginobili is so good at it, in fact, that I was soundly convinced that element would be a difference maker in the Grizzlies’ series. That the officials decided to allow essentially unarmed combat was a huge swing in favor of Memphis. It’s something that must be countered, and often, it’s their best defense. It becomes more difficult with age, as the lateral quickness is limited. But for a Spurs team that struggles to force the other team to struggle, it’s something the Spurs need their young players to invest in.

Ginobili’s a harlequin, drawing the response he wants while playing the crowd. It’s not something to loathe, it’s something to admire, as infuriating as it may be.

And the xenophobic stuff is just stupid. DeMarcus Cousins is good at it, for Chrissakes.

The Byproduct Of The Lockout: Our Faustian Bargain

February 17, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by WindUpDucks via Flickr

Well, NBA fans, we got what we wanted.

Chris Paul – 5-for-15 shooting, 3 assists, 4 turnovers, 13 points.

You remember where we were back in October, right? Always on pins and needles, many of us were reluctant to leave our computers or our smartphones, hoping for news about the end of the lockout and anticipating the next wave of cancellations. September rolled around, and training camp was eliminated. An unfortunate occurrence, but one with which we could live. Then October came; the preseason was obliterated on the 4th, the first two weeks of the regular season on the 10th.

Yet we kept the faith, always focused on the fact that we could still have a season of some sort. 3 days before Halloween, we lost everything before December. But the season hadn’t been canceled, so we kept our hope, regardless of how stupid it was.

I like to think that even then, we knew what we were getting ourselves into. When a season started – if a season started – it was going to be wrought with abysmal play. Who thought about that, though? All that really mattered was basketball, our beloved basketball. I would have done almost anything to get that game back on my television, and I know I was in good company. As anxious as we were, however, patience was our only sanctuary; if we were to get the NBA back, it would be on their terms, not ours. And I was okay with that.

November was our darkness before the dawn. Dissolution of the player’s union begat a renewed sense of urgency among the primary actors and a new wave of doomsday cries from fans. The next day, the entire calendar up until December 15 was lopped off in one fell swoop.

At that point, our options were limited. There was still time for an accord to be reached and a season to be staged, but at what cost? Even the optimists knew that an abbreviated schedule meant certain impenetrable impediments. Players left to their own devices for months would show up out of shape. A lack of training camp and an extraordinarily brief preseason would mean little chance for new players to find chemistry with their teammates and a paucity of time to install new coaching philosophies or flesh out the issues with the old.

Looking back, though, none of that really mattered. Yes, we knew of all the problems with an abbreviated season, but did any of us really care? Bored, discontented, longing for an end to the interminable BRI talk and hipster lumberjack ensembles, we were Faust. We were willing to make that deal with the devil for 50, 60 games. If it cost us the collective soul of the game – worn down by back-to-back-to-backs, weighed down by a lack of conditioning – then so be it.

And 12 weeks ago, we summoned Mephistopheles. Owners and players came to an agreement, signed in blood, that would give us a 66-game schedule. It was what we wanted.

And tonight is what we got. Unlike Faust, we would pay our penance while simultaneously enjoying the fruits of our labor negotiations. We would have our NBA, but it wouldn’t necessarily be the product that we loved. In the abstract, we were ready for that possibility, but no one was truly prepared for nights like tonight.

We got Raymond Felton, target of a million-and-one fat jokes, struggling to run an offense and going 0-for-7 on night for a big, fat goose egg in the scoring column. Jamal Crawford took a spin at the wheel for Portland, sending Blazers fans into a tizzy. And, as evidenced by the statline above, even the Point God himself wasn’t immune to the trappings of the devil. He Himself had zero points through the first three quarters. It was a genuine worry that neither the Clippers nor the Blazers would score 70 points. Both teams shot 38% from the field tonight, and honestly, that number seems obscenely high for how bad the game was.

The thing about a deal with the devil, though, is that you generally get something pretty neat for your troubles. The fourth quarter of Blazers/Clippers was our gift. Sure, not for Portland fans, who had to watch their team cough up a lead as LaMarcus Aldridge watched. And not for the aesthetes; while the end was less ugly than the other three-fourths of the game, it still could have used a whole heaping helping of makeup.

But before the night was over, Chris Paul reminded us that he was Chris Paul. He outscored the Blazers single-handedly in the final frame. The Clippers made it a game, which sucked us in. The Blazers kept it close, even as the outcome seemed more and more inevitable.

And, most importantly, we got our basketball. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t even fun, at least not for the vast majority of the night. But it was what we wanted. Getting to this point might have cost us more than we bargained for, but it’s better than nothing.

Having the NBA back this year means enduring nights like tonight and finding those diamond-in-the-rough moments. Given the alternative, though, it was worth wagering our souls.

Pursuing Long-Term Bliss Through Short-Term Agony

February 17, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

via JD | Photography on Flickr

 

so

“Had the first deal been approved, the Hornets would have landed four proven players in Luis Scola, Kevin Martin, Lamar Odom and Goran Dragic, plus a first-round pick from Houston.”

Again, for what benefit? A decent team for now that would ultimately regress to poor in 2-3 years, with no positive future in sight thanks to more mediocre draft picks? The best – not to mention second youngest – player in the rumored deal is the 29 year old Kevin Martin. Martin is a great player, but not someone you build a team around as Sacramento and Houston have already discovered. Also, at 29, he is not helpful for a team that is going through a rebuilding phase, taking up valuable minutes and cap space for a team that should be developing young talent. The Lakers trade would have sentenced the Hornets to three years as a perpetual 6-10 seed, the worst kind of NBA purgatory. The Hornets would be too bad to seriously challenge the upper echelon of the Western Conference, and too good to obtain any meaningful talent through the draft. New Orleans is not a go-to destination for free agents, and has had to overpay to lure veterans time and time again. This is not the way to build a successful franchise.

via A Response to Chris Bernucca’s Hornets Article on SheridanHoops.com – At The Hive.

Thank God for rationality in the face of overwhelming short-sightedness.

It continues to stun me how quality writers who have been around this game for so long cling to ideas like “MAKING THE PLAYOFFS IS BETTER THAN NOT MAKING THE PLAYOFFS THE END.”

I won’t harp on the trade, I’ve done that enough. If you haven’t caught me on Twitter or at CBS, long-story short, the Lakers trade was stupid, the Clippers trade fantastic. This miserable season? Irrelevant. Pointless. Terrible, but necessary. It’s throwing yourself in a hole so you build the strength to get out.

But instead I wonder about why so many fans and writers take short-term considerations into account when these are the same people who so often hyper-prioritize championships to the point winning 50 games a season for five years is considered irrelevant (otherwise known as the Anti-D’Antoni Paradigm). The way to save your franchise, to put yourself on the map, to make your team matter, is to win a championship. And the way to do that is to have a transcendent star. The Blazers had Bill Walton. The Spurs had Tim Duncan. You need one of those guys. You have to have one of those guys. I’m bigger on this Nuggets team more than almost anyone and I still think their odds are microscopic vs. the field in the West. And the Hornets not only wouldn’t have one of those guys, they’d have the worst kind of alternative. Why would you ever shoot for “making the playoffs” as a ceiling?

If you discover that making the playoffs is your ceiling, if a first-round exit is where your analysis, statistical, scouting, or gut feeling lands you, it’s time to pack it in. Don’t wast time. Things aren’t going to “come together” with a team of players over the age of 28. If you can see the summit, as the Mavericks did the past few years, sure, wait for it. But the Mavericks had Dirk. The Hornets would have Luis Scola.

The reason this seldom happens? GM’s want to keep their jobs. Coaches want to keep their jobs. The survival rate for management and coaching staffs through rebuilding efforts is roughly that of a fruitfly flying through an incinerator. Someone has to pay for crappy seasons and those are the guys that get axed, depending on their relationship with ownership. So coaches and management go for wins. People will come out to see a 41-win team if it’s fun and exciting. Unless it’s Philadelphia, but that’s neither here nor there.

But to support this line of thinking if you’ve been around is madness. Chicago is where it is because of the lottery. Miami, same deal. San Antonio, Dallas, on down the line, they all drafted their superstar. It’s just bizarre that the same writers who so often bag on teams for being “ordinary” or “complacent” are the same ones to claim that those results are better than short-term agony in pursuit of long-term bliss.

The Road To Hell Is Paved With Good Intentions And Also The 2012 New Jersey Nets

February 17, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

via 96dpi on Flickr

“It’s been a tough year,’’ Williams said. “It’s been the toughest year of my career. But hopefully we’ll turn things around. Hopefully we’ll have Brook coming back soon. We’ve got to get MarShon (Brooks) going a little bit — he’s a little rusty and that’ll come. We’ve just got to win, really. Once you get a win, it just kind of takes that pressure off you, that monkey off your back. And that’s just really it.’’
They’ll be better when Lopez is healthy, no doubt. And if they end up trading for Dwight Howard, they’ll be even better still. But at 8-23 through 31 games, and 7½ games out of the last playoff spot, is the season too far gone to be saved?

The Nets aren’t thinking that way right now. Williams, after being visibly frustrated following Wednesday’s loss, was making an effort to be calmer and more positive last night.

“We can’t just stay down,’’ he explained. “We’ve done that. I’ve done that. I don’t want to go back to that place where I’m just depressed all the time. Just go to the next (game). We played tough. We played hard. We liked our effort tonight. We’re still down guys. We haven’t had our full team all year.’’

via Nets will soon see return of Brook Lopez but it may be too late after another loss | NJ.com.

Nets fans think I hate them this year.

It’s kind of a bummer and the kind of thing that makes me wish for the days before Twitter when my unnecessarily sarcastic, snarky, pain-in-the-ass trolling was withheld to text messages to Corn or random comments yelled at the television. Because the reality is that I defended that Nets team that started one of the worst starts in NBA history, due to a large number of freak occurrences. I really liked where they were headed when they were going to land Wall before the lottery screwed them like it has so many franchises.

The reason so many fans think I’m biased against them (honestly, one kid actually just keeps tweeting “HATER!” at me like it’s going to have any sort of impact) is basically this: I hated this roster assembled, am deeply concerned with what Avery has done to Brook, and more than anything, cannot fully comprehend a situation where a player makes so much noise about wanting to win, and then would opt to go somewhere with this roster, or basically, Dwight.

It’s not that I don’t like any of the players. I’ve loved Morrow since he got out of living in his car and took over in Golden State (we make a big deal out of Lin for being on Fields’ couch, Morrow came from NOTHING). He’s the best pure shooter in the NBA now that Ray’s caught a case of the olds. I argued Humphries was overpaid not because of his talent but because of the interest level on him given when he was signed. The guy’s a hell of a worker and a quality role player. I even like Shawne Williams. And MarShon is good. I’m not as high on him as some, but he’s good. I’ve listed Farmar as a 6MOY candidate at CBS.

It’s that the total composite of that roster is awful. And you see it in losses that would not be rectified by the addition of Brook. Some, sure. But overall, the team struggles to execute. And Deron knows it.

Why would Howard want to join a terrible team whose good components would be excavated in an attempt to trade for him? Why would he want to line up with a potential lineup of Deron-Morrow-DeShawn-Shelden? They could lose more. Maybe they keep MarShon. Maybe they don’t. Maybe they keep Humphries, maybe they don’t. It just seems bizarre.

What’s more, I’ve tried watching the Nets to form some sort of nuanced view of them. I can point to specific weaknesses with nearly every team for why they’re bad. But with New Jersey (and Charlotte, I’m sorry to say), I’m simply left to say “they are not good at basketball.” It’s just not working. They have flawed, inconsistent, unproductive players, and that has to wear on Williams. Relying on a high-ISO rookie in Brooks is probably not what Williams envisions his prime being spent doing.

But all that changes if Dwight comes. Right? I mean, the Knicks were sunk with Stoudemire, Anthony, and Chandler, until an undrafted point guard from Harvard came through for them. Now they’re .500 and gunning for the stars. That’s how quickly things can change. And every time I seem sure that Dwight can’t look at the Nets and honestly decide to join this team instead of hooking up with Deron nearly anywhere else, reports from reliable sources indicate that Dwight’s even more sold on New Jersey. This seems inevitable, and yet impossible at the same time. LeBron to Miami was unlikely, but it was new territory and had been on the radar for two years if you were paying attention to the whispers. Melo to New York was a simple fact of nature. It was going to occur eventually, like the San Andrea Mega-Quake or the Stones retiring. It was simply going to happen. It makes sense.

Howard makes little sense, and yet seems inevitable. So once again we’re left wondering if much like Howard’s inability to completely grasp his post-game, if he truly understands what legacy is and how long it may take to build a champion.  Or maybe he thinks he and Deron are just that good. We may or may not agree, but we can’t fault them for that line of thinking. But if the Nets are going to survive, they have to re-invent themselves soon, because Deron won’t stand for much more of this. He never asked for it, after all.

Kobe Bryant And A Perilous Wisdom

February 17, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

via zigazou76 on Flickr

So

“NBA players may be unwilling to settle for only moderately high-quality shot opportunities early in the shot clock, believing that even better opportunities will arise later,” Skinner wrote.

He also notes that the likelihood of a turnover plays into the equation.“If the players believe, for example, that their team has essentially no chance of turning the ball over during the current possession, then they will be more likely to hold the ball and wait for a later opportunity,” he wrote.

Yeah, whatever, Bryant responds. He told Wired.com after a recent matchup with the New York Knicks that there are countless variables, and his decision to shoot — or not shoot, as the case may be — depends upon who’s on the floor, where they’re standing and how much time is left on the clock.

“If I can kick it to somebody, a lot of times I wind up getting a hockey assist, so it just depends on how much time I have left,” Bryant said. “If there’s a chance to pass and swing [to another player] for another opportunity, that’s fine. If there’s not, then I have to create space and get a shot up, understanding that there are two [players] on me and it’s going to be a great opportunity for us to get an offensive rebound.”

via NBA Players Scoff at Mathematical Model Suggesting When to Shoot | Playbook | Wired.com.

Skinner’s study isn’t perfect, in large part because it discounts the psychological complications of deciding a good shot in the flow of a possession. When Kobe has the ball, it’s difficult for him to settle for a decent shot early in the clock when he has such strong belief in his ability to find a better one over the next 10 or 15 seconds. His success as a player depends on having complete confidence in his abilities, and a situation in which he questions his chances to get a better shot on a large portion of possessions could have negative effects on his entire game.

via Kobe Bryant isn’t always into mixing science and basketball | Ball Don’t Lie – Yahoo! Sports.

Via Baskeball-Reference.com’s Play Index+, 2011-2012 leaders in shots between 26 and 45 feet, with 10 seconds or more left in the quarter (buzzer-beater heaves removed, for reference; does not account for shot clock):

 

There isn’t a more fun player in the NBA to write about than Kobe Bryant. Pretty much any scribe will tell you that. There’s a reason that typically cynical mainstream (can I use that term any more? I mean people who do what I do, just are more successful and have more support from their organizations) writers absolutely fall over themselves to describe his greatness. (Part of this is that writers will typically lean towards the guys they know during the writer’s “prime.” Kobe is the guy for the last ten years, so prominent writers of the past ten years tend to lean towards him. LeBron James is arrogant while Kobe Bryant is “confident.” LeBron pulls “stunts.” While Kobe’s shooting after that Heat loss last year was “inspiring.”) Modern writers love to analyze and pick apart the statistical paradox that is his year-by-year career. And make no mistake, it’s a paradox either way. (For example: “His usage is sky-high to the point he kills the offense and his clutch statistics aren’t just overrated, they’re pretty terrible.”  VS. “Considering his usage, his efficiency is actually pretty brilliant and when he’s playing at his highest level he’s nearly impossible to counter. In related news, RINGZ.”) You can think that Henry Abbott’s penchant for posting on Bryant’s late-game efficiency is some sort of ESPN-conspiracy attempt to tarnish the Mambas reputation, but in reality, it’s that it’s a fascinating subject that bubbles beneath the mainline narrative. That’s pretty much what TrueHoop has been doing since way before ESPN entered the picture. And if you’ve talked to Abbott for more than 30 seconds, you’d forget ever accusing him of an anti-Bryant bias. It would be like accusing a hippo of liberal leanings. The damn thing just eats.

One of the best things I feel I’ve ever written was about Bryant after the fifth title. Writing about Bryant may get tiresome because it has to be done so much, but when you dig in to his psyche, his approach, his legacy, the contradictory elements of his greatness, the undeniable nature of his dominance, the equally undeniable questions surrounding his approach to that greatness, the whole bag, it’s impossible not to enjoy it. It’s like a movie you don’t even think is perfect, nor does it connect with you emotionally, but it’s just good enough and just flawed enough to remain constantly interesting.

In a lot of ways Bryant is anchored with the same criticisms LeBron James gets for the flaws in his game. Namely, an expectation not that he be great, but that he be the best we feel he can be. When Bryant went on his 40-point scoring binge, I was racing to see how many shots it took him. The natural response to this is “HATER!” but in reality, it’s because the best basketball I’ve seen Bryant play came in stretches in the 2009 season. That was the second-highest FGA season of his career. And yet I routinely saw him working in the flow of the offense, passing to create, working to develop possessions, operating in the flow. It was virtuoso. It was incredible. This stuff this year? It’s an old man with exceptional abilities forcing his way into scoring totals either because of a lack of confidence in the system or teammates, or because he’s trying to prove to himself and everyone else that he’s not too old. It’s not sad. It’s not admirable. In the case of the above chart, it is kind of funny.

Bryant literally shoots more shots from 2-feet beyond the arc and farther back. When I decided to look up the stat using the new Play Index + (which, by the way, a healthy expletive to BR for coming up with that thing and sapping the productivity of every internet-heavy hoops fan on the planet, seriously, half the HP crew is lost in a vortex on HP and I have to go in to drag them out later; I’m pretty sure Lynch is stuck in a statistical crevice like it’s 127 Hours), I laughed and said “Surely Bryant’s not number one. ” He can’t be.”  And then he was. So much so.

Why would you elect to shoot from that range 49 times? What could possibly drive you to shoot that many times? When I posted it to Twitter, predictably, Kobe fans (not Laker fans, though some of them were; many Laker fans were basically like “yup, we don’t know what to do with it, either”) went apoplectic. “How many were at the end of the shot clock!” “How many were because Pau and Gasol were doing nothing?!” Part of my issue with this is that Mike Brown’s system is only going to work with this group of players if everyone on the floor works their face off to create an easy shot. They have no one to hit the hard shots. That used to be Bryant. Which kind of brings us back to the study discussed in Wired.

I’ve long defended Joe Johnson (before the past two seasons when his contract made it impossible and his production dropped) as being valuable for the Hawks as the player on the team who can convert a high percentage of low percentage shots. In reality, every team needs these, and while I think getting to an actual researched conclusion on this would take pretty much the rest of my life, it probably has a lot to do with why stars are necessary in the playoffs. The defensive intensity increases, which lowers the number of quality, high-percentage shots available in a given possession, which means you wind up with a higher percentage of shots that have a lower probability of conversion. Having those players who can create their own shot like Bryant, Melo, Johnson, Pierce, Wade, LeBron, Paul, etc., means that if we assume two equal teams in all other areas will be faced with converting low percentage shots thanks to the defense, it is those players who become the key to victory. Put another way, having a guy that can nail that fadeaway, impossible, double-covered baseline jumper is a pretty big freaking deal when you’re not getting open looks. The response of course is that it doesn’t take a whole lot of tape watching to see that Bryant too often actually works his way into a more difficult shot. But the thinking is likely “this is a difficult shot for others, but for me it’s a quality look I’ve hit a million times. The only problem is that eventually, the percentages catch up.

In 2007-2008, Bryant hit those shots at a .354 clip. Now he’s plummeted below .250 and still, hes’ taking them. More than any other player. Is it true that he has one of the highest usage rates and as a result takes more shots at most locations? Absolutely. But think of these shots and the low probability of making them, and think if just half of them were converted for higher quality looks. If you remove these shots from his totals this season, his percentage climbs to .451 (last years season average), up from .436. But those are just numbers, which Bryant CLEARLY does not care about. Why he should care is that he’s still brilliant. He’s still Kobe. And he’s still able to knock down low percentage shots, just not ridiculously stupid shots. Some of these, maybe even many of these could be 9-1-1 shots at the end of the quarter (as Spo calls ‘em), but they simply can’t all be.

A common refrain I’ve heard is that you have to take that with Kobe. And you do. You have to take the indecisiveness and tentativeness with LeBron, the struggle with Rose, the mental breakdowns with Howard.But it’s interesting to think that the problem with Bryant is less about him getting older, and more about his inability to shift his decision making as he gets older. He’s wiser, without the wisdom.

Pretty typical for Kobe.

Paroxysm At Gametime: Linsanity In Toronto – Did… That… Just… Happen?

February 15, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Image By The Talented Mr. @AnthonyBain

 

Just everything, just what’s right with sports. He’s an underdog that came up, he does it the right way, and to be able to — probably the biggest point — to be able to step on national TV with all the scrutiny, Madison Square Garden, against the Lakers, against Kobe, and produce what he did — I mean, to me, that’s remarkable, that’s unbelievable that he can do that in that game.” – Mike D’Antoni, morning shootaround

The press conference will later be described as a circus and a zoo. No clowns or animals in sight, unless you feel those terms characterize all those who planned their Tuesday around briefly speaking to a 23-year-old days removed from couch surfing (this writer included). As buzz builds up, a reporter jokes that this media room set-up is “normal.” Others get started early on their “Asian community turns up to support Jeremy Lin!” and  “Jeremy Lin is a big story!” features. Cameras have their red lights on and all of a sudden you realize that you’re part of something quite big. You’re part of the biggest story in sports.

“He’s the real deal. You don’t do this — you may do it for one games, two games… Now, the real deal means he’s an NBA player. Whether he’s the level of these other guys, we’ll see. Some people have to do it for five, six years before they get up to that level. He’s up there and just started, but can he play int he NBA? Yeah, of course, he’s got all of the tools and he’s playing really well. That’s not a fluke, how he’s playing. Now, we’ll see going on what level he arrives at.” – Mike D’Antoni, morning shootaround

You can tell that D’Antoni is trying to let this story take its course. He’s trying to help the writers, but trying not to let expectations get even higher than they already are. He knows Lin is not a bonafide superstar, even if he’s being treated like one. But he’s also a completely different person than he was two weeks ago. He isn’t stressed about how Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire distribute shots. He doesn’t have to do the managing expectations thing with Baron Davis. The wins have changed his team. Lin has changed everything. It’s evident.

“We’re just going to be comfortable with each other, figure out where do you like the ball, when do you like the ball, which block, which elbow, stuff like that. So we’re going to work through which plays are working for us, which plays are going to be the most effective for us. So it’s going to be a process.” - Jeremy Lin, morning shootaround

Lin is somehow even scrawnier than he looks on television. He projects more than a bit of embarrassment at the attention he’s receiving. He’s as humble as advertised, so deferential it’d make you sick if he wasn’t so damn believable. Lin understands that he’s a media sensation and he’s prepared to be accommodating, but this has happened so quickly that there’s no way he’s used to it. A “gee-whiz” air follows him which will seem in line with his struggles later, and seem totally insane when he destroys any attempts at an alternate storyline to “Jeremy Lin, Killer At Large.”
 “He’s one of my favorites, all-time. His first day on the job in Dallas he comes in, wants to watch film and talk about defense, so he got my attention when we first got him. Really came in and had an impact on the team there in Dallas, was the difference defensively, talking, being active the way he’s doing for New York right now.” – Dwane Casey, morning shootaround

This isn’t the first time you’ve heard Casey rave about Tyson Chandler. Last season, they’d watch games and then talk on the phone about what other teams were doing. Casey would relay Chandler messages to tell the team. You know how a point guard is a coach on the floor on offense? There’s a reason Casey has compared the big man to Gary Payton. When you see Chandler present him with his Mavericks championship ring before tip, it feels right.

“It’s probably going to be sold out. There are going to be a lot of Lin jerseys. I’ve seen his face on our jumbotron, so he’s doing something good.” – James Johnson, morning shootaround

Lin is cheered in introductions and cheered louder when he touches the ball on the first possession. One minute in, he misses a jumper badly. Maybe he’ll fall off tonight.

Chandler scores the first seven Knick points, with Lin looking for his shot less than usual and Stoudemire looking shaky in his return. With every Lin assist, however, the crowd erupts. Some of us are here for Raptors vs. Knicks, others are here for The Jeremy Lin Experience. You’re not entirely sure where you stand.

Jose Calderon steals the ball from Lin and the crowd oohs and ahhs. Minutes later, Calderon hits a three and his cheers are louder than any you’ve heard for Lin. This is a battle between Lin fans and Raptors fans. You’re convinced half the people here are cheering after every possession. You’re also convinced that a good portion of the crowd will not admit who is winning the point guard battle.

Second quarter, Lin turns it over on three consecutive possessions. Toronto scores off each of them, bringing the lead to 13. As he heads for the bench, you notice Lin hitting himself on the chest, frustrated. The Raptors are being physical, trying to discourage him from attacking one-on-one.

Lin’s on the break and he’s got numbers. He looks for Tyson Chandler, but the pass is broken up. Fiveturnovers, and we’re not at halftime. The crowd goes wild. Yay, failure! Wait, what?

Midway through the third, Calderon makes a desperation three with the shot clock expiring. He has 23 points, 11 in the quarter. Lin has 11 total. You wonder if the streak is over. Maybe the Lin conversation is different tomorrow. Maybe he just goes back to being a surprisingly above-average point guard. That’s alright, it wasn’t going to last forever.

Lin’s at the line, just seconds later. These are his first attempts from the line, every eyeball on Lin. Toronto boos him like Vince Carter.

Swish and Toronto cheers him like Steve Nash. This game is different from anything you can remember.

Midway through the fourth, Stoudemire hits a hook. Iman Shumpert’s locking up Calderon; the Raptors’ offense is dead. 10-0 run, Knicks down two. You momentarily picture the game coming down to the last possession, giving the big-time national writers in attendance a great story to tell. No, can’t say it aloud.

Lin is fouled hard by Leandro Barbosa. He shakes it off slowly and splits his free throws. Barbosa beats Lin on the other end, hitting two driving layups in a row. Raptors up nine, four minutes left. Dammit, shouldn’t have even allowed myself that thought.

Under two minutes to play, Toronto up five. New York is right there, but it will need some help. Iman Shumpert steals it from Calderon, goes the other way, and dunks.

Just over a minute left, the ball is in Lin’s hands after an offensive rebound. Linas Kleiza is approaching. Lin pump-fakes, drives, and hits an impossible shot over Amir Johnson, plus the foul. Nobody is booing him now. He hits the free throw. You can only shake your head. It’s tied.

Lin has the ball near halfcourt. Nineteen seconds left, he looks back to the bench. You don’t believe it’s happening. Real life doesn’t play out like this. But what about Lin’s emergence hasn’t been storybook?

He looks back to the bench. The crowd starts to roar. It shouldn’t be able to get louder, but it does, moment by moment.

He waves off a Chandler screen. Everyone in this building is standing.

You think he’s letting the clock go too low. You wonder if he knows what he’s doing. You have goosebumps.

Two seconds, he shoots it. You hold two contradictory thoughts: no effing way and this is definitely going in.

Bam. Good. 0.5 seconds left. Part of you wants to scream, but your mouth isn’t moving. You look around. Lin and his teammates are embracing. People are burying their heads in their hands, laughing. Others are delirious. Yelling, jumping screaming. Apparently the Raptors have another possession but everyone knows it’s over. You realize you’ve witnessed something special.

“I feel good right now, but we’ll see tomorrow morning… My ankle feels great right now. Everything from an injury standpoint feels great.” – Jeremy Lin, postgame

You know he’s lying because you just saw him in the locker room. You saw the bumps he took, you understand why he’s moving so slowly. But you don’t expect a different answer.

“The amount of fun that we’ve had… you look around, everyone’s smiling, there’s a new energy, everyone’s just excited. That’s the thing, it’s not because of me, it’s because we’re coming together as a team. We started making these steps earlier, but we were still losing close games and so obviously it wasn’t fun but when you win that solves a lot of problems. And we’ve been winning and we’ve been playing together. Offensively, defensively, we’ve been following the gameplans. Coach D’Antoni and the staff, they come out with an awesome gameplan every single night with different adjustments. And that’s why it’s fun, from top to bottom, training staff, everybody, it’s a collective effort right now and that’s the beauty of a team sport.” – Jeremy Lin, postgame

You hear this and can’t help but smile. This guy, pardon the cliche, gets it. Even if he never hits another game-winner, even if his numbers dip, even if Anthony’s return messes up the team, Lin’s earned the joy he’s getting right now. You’ve seen his Knicks — they’re energized, they’re together. They’re a team. You’re just happy to have been a part of it.

The Myth of the Number One Pick

February 15, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo by pursuethepassion via Flickr

From Rucker Park to Venice Beach to the driveways in countless homes in Indiana and everywhere in between, every person that has picked up a basketball in their life has dreamed of making it to the National Basketball Association. As the greatest basketball league in the world, it is the pinnacle of achievement in the sport. Day by day, year by year, the pool of potential NBA stars is narrowed down. Cuts are made from grade school travel teams through high school varsity, and only the most talented go on to play in college. After one to four years of hard work, the elite of the elite in college declare for the draft.  And out of all of these gifted athletes, only one of them is given the honor of being the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Going back to Clifton McNeely of the Pittsburgh Ironmen in 1947, there are 65 players that can make the claim that they were the number one pick in an NBA Draft. This means 65 consecutive years of fans getting their hopes up that this was going to be the turning point of their favorite team. Finally, after what was most likely a miserable prior year, their team would draft the cornerstone of the future. Of course, they tell themselves, success won’t happen instantly. You have to endure another long year of missing the playoffs, pair another lottery pick with the new star the following year, count on the front office to make the necessary free agent acquisitions and trades along the way, wait for title window to close on the currently great teams in league, and then leap into contention.

It’s all so easy.

It’s all so wrong.

Consider this.  Since 1990, there have been exactly two players that were drafted #1 overall and won an NBA championship: Shaquille O’Neal (drafted in 1992, titles in 2000, ’01, ’02, and ’06) and Tim Duncan (drafted in 1997, titles in 1999, ’03, ’05, and ‘07). Considering that Shaq won titles with the Lakers and Heat, not the Magic who drafted him, this makes Tim Duncan the only #1 pick since 1990 to win a title with the team that drafted him.

Think it’s limited to just the NBA? Think again. The list of NFL #1 overall picks since 1990 to win a Super Bowl is as follows:  Russell Maryland, Drew Bledsoe, Keyshawn Johnson, Orlando Pace, Peyton Manning, David Carr, and Eli Manning. Of that list, Bledsoe and Carr were on the bench in their Super Bowls, and Johnson won his ring with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, not the Jets who drafted him.  This makes Maryland, Pace, and the Manning brothers the only #1 picks since 1990 to win titles with the teams that drafted them. And if you want to nitpick, Eli was technically drafted by the San Diego Chargers and immediately traded to the Giants so you could argue for only three players that fit in the previous sentence.

So what gives?

Looking at the past decade of picks (for simplicity, we’ll go back to 2000), the picks can be broken down into four categories: Busts, Solid Contributors, Their Time is Coming, and Jury is Out.

Busts: Kwame Brown, Greg Oden

Aside from the mere fact that in four seasons as a NBA player, Oden has played 82 games, seeing him on this list makes me so depressed for so many reasons. As an Ohio State Buckeyes fan, I wanted to see him succeed so much. Someone made a great point on Twitter the other day by pointing out the best Buckeye to be drafted in the past decade is Mike Conley. I like Mike Conley, but yikes. Secondly is the fact that a multitude of experts are on record as saying Kevin Durant was the better pick, Oden was going to be a bust, his knees couldn’t support his massive frame…and they were right. Third is that Bowie over Jordan and Oden over Durant are two of the most colossal drafting errors that we have seen in our lifetimes, and somehow Portland’s front office was behind both of them. For a dedicated, loyal fan base like the Trailblazers have, that’s just brutal. Lastly, this picture, presented without comment:

Solid Contributors: Kenyon Martin, Yao Ming, Andrew Bogut, Andrea Bargnani

I’m sure some people would like to put Kenyon Martin in the “Bust” category, but let’s consider one thing. The 2000 NBA Draft was horrible. Like, “Get out the Men In Black neuralyzer and flash it in every NBA fans’ eyes so we can forget this existed” horrible. Of the 60 guys picked in that draft, credit the Nets to pick one of the three (Jamaal Magloire and Michael Redd being the others) to make an All-Star team. No one made multiple All-Star Games. Only Redd made an All-NBA Team (third team in 2004). Let’s just move on.

Yao Ming is an interesting case. When he was healthy, he was clearly one of the best centers in the league. His per 36 numbers of 21.0 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks per game are beyond impressive. The downside of course is that in his four injury plagued years, he played 165 games and missed 163. It’s hard to put him anywhere else other than the “Solid Contributor” category especially considering he only made it out of the first round of the playoffs once in his career.

Their Time is Coming: LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Derrick Rose, Blake Griffin

I firmly believe every player in this list will win a championship one day, but only Rose will do so with the team that drafted him. LeBron and Dwight are both classic cases of the front offices of their respective teams not doing enough to surround them with enough talent to keep them in town. Sorry, but Larry Hughes/Mo Williams/Antawn Jamison and Rashard Lewis/Jameer Nelson/Vince Carter are not exactly Robin to these guys’ Batman. Catwoman maybe, but not Robin. Once LeBron added two All-Stars in Wade and Bosh as teammates, he was able to win a couple of Finals games, and will get the chance to win more this year.

Dwight will be able to do the same once he lands in Los Ange…errr…wherever he ends up. Looking back at the great centers of all time (Shaq, Hakeem, Robinson, Ewing, Kareem, Russell, Wilt, and Mikan), only Patrick Ewing failed to win a ring. Dwight’s time is coming, the only mystery is where it will be. Hopefully, once he gets settled in a place, he will be able to make more than half of his free throws and stop making comments about wanting to be the closer. It would be a shame to see one of the great representatives of the league end his career without a title. Unfortunately for Orlando, he won’t be doing it in Florida.

Jury is Out: John Wall, Kyrie Irving

Wall and Irving are two talented point guards who we don’t have a read on yet as far as what moves will be made to put the necessary pieces around them to win. A year after the Washington Wizards drafted Wall, they are an utter mess of a franchise. The best part of watching Wizards games aside from Wall’s insane athleticism is hoping to catch a glimpse of Jan Vesely’s girlfriend, Andray Blatche doing something ridiculous, and I don’t have a third thing to put here.

Given the fact that Dan Gilbert loves to win/spend money/write crazy notes, Irving has a much better chance of the necessary pieces being put around him in the years to come. Anderson Varejao’s wrist injury in the past week ends any thoughts the Cavs had of challenging for the 8 seed this year which should position them to land a competent shooting guard (yes, competent is a massive upgrade to the current roster) or young center to the roster. Having already accelerated the rebuilding process with two top four picks last year and with cap space available to spend over the next few years, the front office will stop at nothing to instill a winning culture in Cleveland centered around Irving. Whether they are able to do so remains to be seen; it didn’t work out so well for the last number one pick they drafted.

So what does this all mean? If you’re a fan of a team like the Bobcats, Hornets, Wizards, or other team in contention to land the number one pick in the lottery, temper your expectations. They say that Rome wasn’t built in a day, but guess what: neither are NBA teams. A championship team takes skill, luck, and wise maneuvering from multiple people throughout the organization. If your team is lucky enough to do everything possible to build a championship winning club, more power to you. If they’re not, however, you could be looking at a total bust or, arguably worse, a player who takes his talents elsewhere to win a title. My best advice? Expect nothing, and be happy with any success that comes your team’s way. Otherwise, you will fall victim, as many have before you, to the Myth of the Number One Pick.

Paroxysm At Gametime: Linsanity In Toronto – Pregame/First Half Notebook

February 14, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Image by @AnthonyBain

 

  • Pregame in the media room, the chatter was about how wild and crazy it was this morning. Those who weren’t here saw the tweets and the articles. And there were a lot of people who weren’t here: sure, it was packed this morning, but there are 75-100 more media people here than normal tonight.
  • First person I see getting shots up? Jeremy Lin himself. The banality of the whole thing struck me the same way as it did when I saw Rubio in January. For the most-talked about basketball player (most-talked about athlete?) in the world, warmups are the same as they would be any other day. He went hard, even looking a little winded, and I was reminded of what James Johnson said about Lin after shootaround:

“I saw him before we played them up there and he was going hard. Probably one of the hardest shootarounds I’ve seen and it’s paying off for him. He stayed ready, went down to the D-League, and he’s being rewarded for his hard work.”

  • One other thing I’ll say about watching Lin shoot pregame: the arc on his floater is freaking beautiful.
  • After hearing D’Antoni’s Lin thoughts earlier in the day, I didn’t hear a ton of his pre-game scrum. It might have been difficult for me to get in there, anyway:

  • I did, however, catch Dwane Casey pregame. Casey was an assistant in Seattle when Flip Murray exploded out of nowhere at the beginning of the 2003-04 season. Here are his thoughts on Lin’s journey and the Murray comparison:

“It’s different. Jeremy’s been up and down in the D-League. Flip had sort of the same ascension as far as getting to the top as a player, but this kid is doing it in a top market in the NBA, in the brightest lights. He did it against the Lakers the other night and was this close to being waived and now look where he is, so his story is a little bit more dramatic I think than Flip’s was. Flip’s is a great story, too. You can go back, there’s a lot of guys through the history of the NBA that you can look at that made it. Avery Johnson, he was cut in Seattle Christmas night and then he goes to Golden State, then he bounces back to San Antonio, wins a championship. There’s a lot of guys in the history of the league, probably not to the extent of you doing it in the biggest market, on the brightest stage, as Jeremy’s doing. What a beautiful young man. He wants to be a preacher, he’s smarter than all of us, being a Harvard grad. I couldn’t probably pass the first year of Havard. A great young man.”

  • It was wonderful to see Tyson Chandler award Dwane Casey with his championship ring at halfcourt pregame. The video of Mavs players congratulating him on the jumbotron was sweet, too. Nothing else to add here.
  • Lin was introduced last for the Knicks and received huge cheers. There were also massive cheers when the Knicks won the tip and he first touched the ball. It got weirder from there, though: when he misses his first few shots, there’s a mix of cheers and boos. There is a battle between those who are here only for Lin and those who are pissed off that so many people are here only for Lin. Every time he gets an assist, there are cheers. When Jose Calderon rips the ball from his hands with 7:30 left in the first, the place is loud but it’s more of an “ooooh” than anything. Late in the first, he hits back-to-back layups and the place goes nuts.
  • The arena is a different place in the second quarter. When he commits his fifth turnover on a fast break, trying to find Tyson Chandler, people cheer. With 2:13 left, he is booed when he has the ball on the perimeter, then he hits a three and is cheered louder than any cheer for Kobe on Sunday and any Raptor a lot of nights. When he has the ball on the final possession of the half, he’s FULL-ON BOOED. It has come full circle. I’m interested to see what happens in the second half.
  • I realize there are very few basketball thoughts here. Here’s one: I didn’t think it would take a full quarter before we saw the first Lin/Stoudemire pick-and-roll. Chandler is still the main roll guy when he’s out there.
  • Lin’s halftime stats: Nine points on 4-9 shooting, six assists (two to Chandler, two to Stoudemire, one to Landry Fields, one to Bill Walker), five turnovers, one steal.
  • Raptors are up 47-36. Jose Calderon has 12 points and three assists, but did not score in the second quarter.
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