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2012 NBA Playoffs, Celtics Vs. 76ers Lineup Analysis And Why Boston Will Win In 6 Games

May 12, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

The Philadelphia 76ers don’t really deserve to be in the second round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. Make no mistake, the Chicago Bulls would have destroyed them with a healthy Derrick Rose and a spry Joakim Noah. Heck, the Bulls came one C.J. Watson mistake away from forcing a Game 7 at the United Center. The Sixers have been dealing with some problems in the second half of the season. I wrote about their tendency to fall into a pattern of shooting mid-range jumpers back in April and broke the whole issue down in much greater detail, but here’s the most relevant snippet:

Undisciplined teams like the Charlotte Bobcats, Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers are willing patsies in Doug Collins’ defense-oriented plan, but those teams won’t be in the playoff bracket. When compared to the NBA at-large, Philadelphia often looks like the smart team in the room. On most nights, Collins can simply say “we don’t feel like contested two-point field goals will beat you,” and still sound like a genius. However, the landscape is starting to change, and when compared to well-refined teams like the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic, the Sixers are suddenly the dummies taking all of the long twos and sinking into oblivion. They have slipped into the quicksand of inefficiency as better teams chip away at their defensive dominance and exploit their offensive addiction to sub-optimal attempts.

Throughout the 2011-12 NBA season, the Sixers have been among the league leaders in terms of percentage of total shots taken between 10-23 feet. That’s an efficiency dead zone where offensive rebounds and shooting percentages go to die, generally speaking. The Celtics aren’t exactly the polar opposite of Philly, and in many ways they are a bizzarro world version that found ways to get better in the second half of the season by starting Kevin Garnett at center and allowing Avery Bradley to take the starting shooting guard spot from Ray Allen. I don’t think the Sixers have gotten over the problems that plagued them during the second half of the season, but I do think the Celtics have become a better team. Here’s how the lineups compare:

A New Lineup Analysis Tool (.GIF File On 20-Second Intervals)

Here is my attempt at creating a lineup analysis tool where players are compared to the average values at their position (20+ min/gm positional averages are used). For example, say Player X has an Assist Rate of 20.43, while the average NBA SF (20+ min) has an AR of 17.8. I express the value as it relates to the positional average, so Player X’s Assist Rate is 14.7% better than average (which would point upwards and list 14.7 on the graph).

Philadelphia had good success against the Celtics during the regular season, but Boston was never quite operating at full strength. According to NBA.com/stats, no five-man lineup for Boston played more than 15 minutes against the Sixers in the regular season. That’s odd for two teams in the same division. One thing I always like to do for the playoffs is to see how the top players from the higher-seeded team played against the opposition, because rotations tighten up and those guys will be on the court together a lot during the series.

In this case, Boston comes out looking good. When the trio of Garnett, Pierce and Rondo were on the floor together (55 total minutes), the Cs accumulated a +17.2 pts / 100 possessions net rating — 117.0 Offensive Efficiency, 99.8 Defensive Efficiency. Along the same lines, the group of Bradley, Pierce and  Rondo (26 total minutes) produced a stellar +28.1 net rating. Those guys are going to play a ton of minutes together, and while the small sample size means it likely won’t hold up at that level, the short bursts of dominance bode well when coupled with the experience of Doc Rivers and the Celtics overall.

Meanwhile, three of the top-five most-used lineups (filled with starters that will be playing heavy minutes in the playoffs) by Sixers in head-to-head regular season games against the Celtics played terrible basketball in short stints. Here’s the quick rundown:

4-Man Lineups MIN OffRtg DefRtg NetRtg
Brand,Elton – Hawes,Spencer – Holiday,Jrue – Turner,Evan 22 106.3 139.3 -33
Brand,Elton – Hawes,Spencer – Iguodala,Andre – Turner,Evan 20 106.3 133.1 -26.8
Hawes,Spencer – Holiday,Jrue – Iguodala,Andre – Turner,Evan 20 106.3 133.1 -26.8

Advanced Stat Breakdown

I don’t think this will be an easy series for either team. They don’t play easy styles. Everything is a grind, and it all stems from disciplined defense. The Sixers matchup well across the board and boast solid depth to match the Celtics, but Boston has better top players that are more reliable under a playoff intensity. Paul Pierce is going to get to the right elbow when the game is on the line. Rajon Rondo is going to create open looks for Kevin Garnett from the mid-range. I’ve never felt particularly fatalistic about a series, but I do in this case. The Celtics are going to get the job done somehow.

Prediction: Celtics In 6

 

For my other predictions and deeper analysis on other matchups, check out these other Hardwood Paroxysm articles:

A Full Eastern Conference Playoff Breakdown With First Round Picks Included

A Full Western Conference Breakdown With First Round Picks Included

My Piece On The Philadelphia 76ers From April

Heat vs. Pacers Prediction And Lineup Analysis

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com

The Vulnerability Of The Los Angeles Lakers

May 11, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by alliwally92 via Flickr

As loud as Pepsi Center seemed on TV last night when the Nuggets roared out to a 11-0 lead against the Lakers, it couldn’t have been any more deafening inside that arena than inside a small Mexican restaurant, at the bar, in a small town in Arizona last night. For, while silence can be golden, it also speaks volumes.

This particularly town — my hometown — has kind of an awkward relationship with the surrounding big cities and their NBA teams. Yes, it’s in Arizona, but California is 15 minutes away, and that’s if you happen to catch a run of unfortunate red lights. Phoenix is four hours away. Downtown Los Angeles is between four and five. Quite a few people in this area are transplants from southern California (including my family; my dad grew up an avid Lakers fan in Los Angeles), perhaps more than would consider themselves native Arizonans. That’s doubly true during the summer months, when people travel in droves to use the Colorado River and Lake Mohave to find relief from the triple-digit heat and from the equally stifling ennui that hovers over every activity that’s not watercraft (or casino!) related.

Most of those visitors drive vehicles with California plates; a large number also sport Laker vanity accoutrement. While Suns fans do exist, they’re few and far between, mostly diehards. Diehards are great — they’ll travel eight hours roundtrip to see their favorite team play — but it’s hard to build a presence in support of a particular sports team with just one guy cheering when the game’s on at Buffalo Wild Wings. When it comes to the battle of numbers and the casual fan, the Lakers win in this area, and it’s not particularly close.

The bar last night was suitably outfitted. Jerseys were ubiquitous, and most were purple and gold. Jokes about Kobe’s condition and symptoms flew, a winking nod to the idea that Kobe Bean Bryant could close out a playoff series with it coming out of both ends. Yet these weren’t the Lakers fans I’d come to know over the years. These fans allowed for the fact that Los Angeles might not get the win. They were confident, sure; one gentleman in particular straddled the line between optimism and faith in his assessment of Andrew Bynum’s potential performance. But Lakers fans are a knowledgeable bunch. They get a bad wrap because of some of the Kobe fans in their midst, but they know their team. These people knew that their team struggled on the road this year; that Pau Gasol, unlikely to shift gears, is what he is in this system; that they distrusted Mike Brown completely and utterly; and that Kobe was going to chuck a lot of shots. If they went in, at least one of their big guys played well and a second wing player managed to deliver something more than a Slurpee for Bynum, the Lakers stood a chance to beat anybody. Otherwise, they could lose to the Wizards.

Or they could get shutout for the first two minutes of a closeout game. When Brown called timeout, that little bar was funeral-silent, that type of quiet where people murmur and whisper only to themselves and conversations exist only in body language. And that reaction took me by surprise. I’m accustomed to Lakers fans getting angry and blaming people when things go wrong. In the past, I’d expect them to let off a few chose swears, realize they have Kobe Bean Bryant on their team and wait for the tide to turn.

As the game wore on, that anger boiled to the surface. Pau Gasol was soft and worthless. Andrew Bynum was playing so badly that Andrew Bynum needed to shoulder-tackle Andrew Bynum. Mike Brown was the worst coach in the history of the league and needed to be the recipient of various unsavory activities for his continued use of Matt Barnes and Devin Ebanks. But those first two minutes continued to stick in my mind. Lakers fans had become like the rest of us: vulnerable. They no longer knew if they always had the answer. Things were as uncertain for the Lakers as they were for most teams. Kobe Bryant is old. Andrew Bynum is still young, temperamental and growing. The cap situation is cumbersome. The front office is in flux. Championships far from guaranteed, let alone the conference finals — or perhaps even the second round.

The Lakers are still the Lakers, but the horizon is coming on fast. They still have the upperhand. Game 7 will be on their floor, in front of their fans. They will likely defeat the Nuggets and move on. The regular season bore out that they are the better team, and the better team usually wins.

Usually. Certainty is out the window with this team. No one knows it more than their own.

Round Table: Round Two is So Close, I Can Taste It

May 11, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Image via anndewig on Flickr

Time for another edition of everyone’s favorite Hardwood Paroxysm Round Table. In this edition Connor, Noam, Clint, Andrew, and I talk about Round 1 of the playoffs. It made us laugh, it made us cry, and most importantly, it gave the 5-seed Boston Celtics home court in Round Two. That’s weird. Onto the questions!

1) Which player gave the most valiant effort in the game where their team got knocked out?

Connor: I’ll award this one to the entire Bulls’ team. Without their two best players and a myriad of other nagging injuries affecting the remaining rotation, they still managed to nearly gain control of the series and win Game 6 in Philadelphia. The Bulls’ role players rose to the challenge of necessary overachievement in the later games of the series, and only just fell short of achieving an unlikely victory.

Noam: Al Horford. True, his 15 point, 9 board, 4 assist, 7 turnover performance in game 6 wasn’t nearly as impressive as the 19-11-3-3-3 monster he threw up in game 5 to keep the Hawks alive, especially considering the missed free throws that could have sent this baby to overtime. But the big number with Al is also the first one in the box score: 46. As in, minutes. People who are playing in just their 3rd game after a 4 month injury should not be able to play virtually all game while banging and hustling against a monster Kevin Garnett. Al Horford is not People.

Clint: This player is Kobe Bryant. Or will be.

When Danilo Gallinari played this year the Nuggets were 27-16 (62.7%) Lakers were 62.1% for the season. Teams are even
May 11, 2012 9:09 am via TweetDeckReplyRetweetFavorite
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David Locke

If that’s not close enough to a toss up for you, four times this series Bryant has taken at least 23 field goal attempts. The Lakers are 2-2 in those games. The tipping point will be better overall team play from George Karl’s momentum monsters after Game 6.

Andrew: Mike Bibby. It was kind of neat to watch Bibby try to exact a minimal dose of vengeance against the Heat for cutting ties with him over the summer. It didn’t matter, of course, and he tapered off after the first half, but it was still fun.

Amin: Poor Paul Millsap. Don’t fret. Your 19 rebounds in Game 4 weren’t in vain (yes they were).

2) Which 2nd round match-up is most tantalizing?

Connor: It’s not a set matchup yet, but the Spurs-Clippers/Grizzlies series should be fun in either of its possible forms. Both the Clippers and Grizzlies are just dangerous and competent enough to pose a serious upset threat to the Spurs, and both teams are equally capable of serving as an exciting foil to the Spurs’ consistent diligence.

Noam: OKC against whoever. Be it the Lakers’ size or the Nuggets’ unpredictable outbursts of speed and scorching fire, both game 7 participants have favorable matchups against the preseason Western favorite. Whether the more talented Thunder can ascend despite those matchups should be a fascinating go-go-go affair that will be intense enough to make us forget about the massacre that is going to be Boston- Philly.

Clint: Once again I have to look ahead, this time hoping the Memphis Grizzlies can get by that other Staples occupant for a full-health rematch with the San Antonio Spurs. This series was spectacular last season — well, any with Memphis was, to be frank. Failing that, Gregg Popovich will eat Vinny D alive, leaving us pulling for the OKC Thunder.

Andrew: Anyone who answers anything other than THUNDERNUGGETS, especially after Denver forced a Game 7 in Los Angeles, is either a liar or in need of more JaVale McGee immersion therapy.

Amin: I know I’m probably really wrong here, but I’m looking forward to Miami-Indiana. Indiana is above-average and deep. Miami is well-above-average but absurdly top-heavy. There are things to watch in this series: Hibbert vs. [quasi-functioning Miami center], Hill/Collison vs. Supernintendo Chalmers, LeBron and Danny Granger’s rivalry that started when they were the two best SFs in the Central Division. I think everyone’s money is on Miami, but I’m excited for these Pacers to give us all a show.

3) What’s up with JaVale McGee?

Connor: He’s playing well and helping the Nuggets win playoff games. Beyond that, I could only tell you what I’ve learned from his tweets.

Noam: His mind has been invaded by an alien task force that has been assigned by the galactic overlords to combat boredom by any means necessary, thus resulting in the world’s ultimate wingspanny crapshoot. In a basketball world where players range between “Too fast, too strong, too good” and “LOL CORY HIGGINS”, McGee is the
master of the entire spectrum, a single package with readily available dominance and blunder of the most explosive kind. I’m loving every second of it.

Clint: Too many Muppets.

Andrew: GREATEST PLAYER EVER in terms of entertainment value, right? At one point in last night’s Game 6, Andrew Bynum put up a pretty flat jumper from about 10 feet out, and McGee had to restrain himself from trying to swat the shot. At the rim. A shot that had been on the way down since it left the shooter’s hand. How do you not love that?

Amin: As someone who has watched A LOT of Washington Wizards basketball over the past few years, let me take you through my process of watching JaVale McGee during this round in stages:

  • Confusion
  • Anger
  • Jealousy
  • Despair
  • Jealousy
  • Happy-for-him-ness
  • Disbelief
  • Denial
  • Acceptance

Acceptance means “OK, I knew he had potential to play well, but that potential was never going to be realized in DC. The environment was not good for him, and he needs to be padded by less-relaxed attitudes than there were in Washington. Play on, Pierre.”

4) Defining moment of the first round so far?

Connor: Kevin Durant’s game-winning shot in Game 1 of the Thunder’s sweep of the Mavericks serves well as an emblematic moment of the 2012 playoffs. It was difficult, momentous, impressive, and a slight beneficiary of luck – symbolic of the external forces that have shaped Round One, and indicative of the transitional period the NBA is currently experiencing.

Noam: Derrick Rose tearing his ACL. Call it a footnote or call it a fluke, no single moment so far has done more to affect both the future location of the Larry O’Brien moment or the emotional capacity of those watching the playoffs. It was the disgusting cherry atop the muddy sundae of an entire Eastern bracket that has seen 3 abolished knees and several gut-wrenching displays of basketball.

Clint: Yep, losing Derrick Rose still haunts us all. Kevin Garnett can turn back the clock all he wants, and the Boston-Philly series was a good one, if a bit on the grinder side, but we were all robbed of a truly scintillating playoff run when he was carried off the court. Surely someone has something amazing up their sleeve soon to take our minds off of it. Watching Sam Presti start sweating and scrambling to balance the books as James Harden’s value skyrockets is fun at least.

Andrew: Baron Davis’s knee injury. It’s the perfect example of the impact injuries have had on this postseason — particularly knee injuries. Every series in the Eastern Conference was impacted by injuries, to varying degrees.

Amin: Amare Stoudemire slicing his hand open. Not only was it a symbolic end to their season (IN CASE OF EMERGENCY BREAK GLASS), but it really encapsulated the intensity that underdog teams need to feel during first rounds. If you’re not fired up to play someone who’s supposed to destroy you, why bother showing up? Bust your ass, and you can go into the offseason with a clearer head and grasp of what to work on for next year. Don’t play hard, and let your life and ensuing career fill with questions about your ability to fulfill your potential and lead your team to a title. Also, Derrick Rose and Baron Davis crumpling in heaps was pretty terrible.

5) Most exciting player to watch so far?

Connor: Chris Paul has been less than perfect from game to game in the Clippers’ series against the Grizzlies, but he’s carried his team for large stretches of time and led their odd and varying charge towards a 3-2 series lead. Without his dominant play and comeback-inducing skill, the most fun series of the first round would be a shell of itself and long finished.

Noam: Can it be anybody but Chris Paul? He may not be exciting in the unpredictable fashion of a JaVale or the dominant fashion of a LeBron, but he still elicits audible gasp with his yo-yo like control of a game that should theoretically be affected by 10 people at a time. It’s a methodical, calculated ordeal the combats everything we know about a game supposedly defined by size – Paul is too small to be omnipresent, but by constantly placing himself wherever one needs to see him, one can hardly tell the difference.

Clint: Roy Hibbert, JaVale McGee, Serge Ibaka, Chris Paul… But I have to go with Rajon Rondo, on an historic assists run, pulling down trip-dubs. Oh, and this.

Andrew: See my answer to number 3.

Amin: I hate to say this, but for me it’s Paul Pierce. It just boggles my mind watching him all the time. He always looks old, slow, and tired, yet still somehow manages to come up with at least one big moment. He’s basically like a car where the gas needle has been in the red so long that it’s about to snap off, but the car will still get you home. Again. And again. And again.

6) Injuries, man. Ya know?

Connor: Yes, those are bad.

Noam: Sigh. Not that any major contender but Chicago was knocked out of the race (though the Paul-groin Griffin-knee tandem might prove costly as well), but man, this has been a conformation bias celebration for the schedule-detractors. One can only hope that Paul George won’t be too busy in round 2 to descend upon the maimed and heal their spirits with Tron dunks.

Clint: Vinny Del Negro actually started packing when Blake Griffin knocked knees the other night. It will be interesting to look back and assess this sprint of a season to see if there were more season-ending injuries or not, when all’s said and done.

Andrew: If the Injury Gods take JaVale McGee or any of the Spurs away from us, I will personally scale NBA Mount Olympus and beat them to within an inch of their immortal lives. No, you know what? If they take anyone else away from us. These playoffs have the potential to be really, really good the rest of the way, but we’ve already been denied Heat/Bulls. Anything more crosses the line.

Amin: Ugh. Awful. Just awful. It’s like the gods are shooting asterisk lightning bolts down at the playoff teams, and the ones that can avoid being struck are the ones that can make it to the next round. We had to put up with the lockout, a compressed schedule, all kinds of drama… and now our players are dropping like flies? Mount Olympus is wrathful, you guys. [Ed. Note: Andrew and I both apparently hate Mount Olympus]

2012 NBA Playoffs, Heat vs. Pacers Lineup Analysis And Reasons Why Miami Will Win In 6 Games

May 11, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

As the 2012 NBA Playoffs finally move beyond the first round, the real fun begins. Individual matchup become more compelling, the stakes continue to rise and the quality of basketball ascends as lesser teams make their fishing plans. I’ve hit on all my predicted winners except the injury-ravaged Chicago Bulls in the first-round, and you can check out those picks and my deeper analysis of the full field on Hardwood Paroxysm here for the Eastern Conference and here for the Western Conference. Now here’s my look at the second-round Eastern Conference matchup between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers.

A New Lineup Analysis Tool (.GIF File On 20-Second Intervals)

As you might expect, the Miami Heat are the superior team. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are the two best players in the series, and it isn’t even close. Shocking, right? Anyways, here is my attempt at creating a lineup analysis tool where players are compared to the average values at their position (20+ min/gm positional averages are used). For example, say Player X has an Assist Rate of 20.43, while the average NBA SF (20+ min) has an AR of 17.8. I express the value as it relates to the positional average, so Player X’s Assist Rate is 14.7% better than average (which would point up 14.7 on the graph). Here is how Miami Heat players compare to their counterparts on the Indiana Pacers and NBA averages from 2011-12:

Danny Granger and Paul George certainly have the physical tools to slow down LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but according to NBA.com/Stats the Pacers were a net -16.1 points per 100 possessions (93.9 Off Eff, 110.0 Def Eff) with LeBron on the court in their four regular season matchups and a net -10.7 with Wade on the court. Something tells me Indiana is going to see a lot of both of those guys in this series, so I’m going to treat those stats as a harbinger of death for the Pacers.

One thing that gives me pause about predicting a six-game series win for Miami (aside from the fact that their role players are so weak), is that the Pacers actually had terrific success with their most-used lineup against Miami this season – Collison| George | Granger | Hibbert | West — as that quintet dominated the offensive glass (35.7% offensive rebound rate) and produced a net rating of +9.1 pts / 100 poss in 74 minutes against Miami in the regular season. As you can see above, Hibbert has a clear advantage on the offensive glass against Haslem, and West is slightly better than Bosh in that respect, but James and Wade more than cancel out anything George and Granger bring to the table. Without knowing the exact matchups for that seemingly magical Pacers lineup, I can still tell you that they shot an absurd 48 percent from beyond the arc while on the floor. That feels like fool’s gold to me. One thing that will throw Indy off their game is that Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony will bother Hibbert in the post, disrupting spacing on the arc — Hibbert posted up on 51.9% of his plays this year (0.89 ppp), but Haslem only allowed 0.78 ppp and Anthony limited opponents to 0.75 ppp, according to Synergy Sports.

Advanced Stat Breakdown

One area that provides some hope for Indy is that the Heat have given up one of the highest percentages of shots from beyond the arc to opponents all season long, which could work well for a Pacers team that finished the year as the sixth-best three-point shooting team in the league. If Indy catches fire from long distance, the complexion of the series could change in a hurry. Interestingly, the Pacers hold an advantage in three of the traditional Four Factors on offense, but the most important factor (by far) is eFG% and the Heat are miles ahead in that respect. Perhaps even more importantly, Miami is a top-five defensive team in the NBA and Indiana gets to the rim even less often than an average NBA squad, so it all comes down to the three-point efficiency. James and Wade know the Pacers are hungry to prove they belong, so I fully expect the dynamic duo to rip Indy’s heart out early in the series to prevent things from getting interesting. That’s what stars do in the NBA Playoffs. Sorry Pacers fans.

Prediction: Miami In 6

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com

Offensive Geometry

May 10, 2012 in by with 6 Comments

Fishing (?) boat being built

On many things, reasonable people may disagree. I believe whole-heartedly in this principle, and the consistent frequency with which is manifests itself. When it comes to basketball there may be no subject which inspires more disagreement, reasonable and otherwise, than Kobe Bryant and the Lakers’ offense. I’ll save you the time of reading an awkward summary/re-hashing of the isolationist debate that’s taken place this season and last; I’m sure you’re all familiar with the talking points of both Kobe defenders and detractors. However, I would like to present a slightly new way of looking at these issues. I’d also like to state formally that in knowingly delving into this complicated subject, I intend to proceed without the intentional use of snark or hyperbole of any kind.

Before embarking on a discussion of the relative merits of the Lakers’ offensive approach, the nature of that approach must first be established. To that end, I tried to create a more visual representation of those offensive options, the relative values and how they’re balanced. I began by combing mySynergySports and identifying every offensive outcome for the Lakers that had occurred at least 100 times this season. By offensive outcome I mean both possession type and the specific player who ultimately used that possession. I was focused on deliberate offensive choices so I left out transition possessions and offensive rebounds, who’s frequency may have more to do with opportunity than deliberate design. The radar graph below shows two different pieces of information for each outcome – the points per possession that outcome netted the Lakers on average, and the total number of times it occurred this season. The yellow line represents the points per possession, the purple represents the number of occurrences. (Each vertical segment of the graph represents 100 occurrences. Try as I might I couldn’t get Excel to display the scales for both data sets without having them overlap.)

Even if “in Kobe you trust” the focus of criticism should at least be obvious. Of the Lakers’ five most productive offensive outcomes, none occurred more than 200 times on the season. Meanwhile nearly 1,100 Lakers’ offensive possessions were used by Kobe Bryant in either isolations, post-ups, or pick-and-rolls. The offensive efficiency the Lakers received from those possessions fell in between what they got from Metta World Peace in the post (0.84 ppp) and Ramon Sessions in the pick-and-roll (0.88 ppp). Since most of the focus on the Lakers’ offense has to do with the quantity and quality of offensive possessions used by Kobe, as compared to those used by Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, it’s worth pointing out that all but one offensive outcome involving Bynum or Gasol averaged more points per possession than that trio of Kobe solo-acts.

However this is not the end of the discussion, and simply stopping here would be short-sighted and irresponsible. One of the reasons that Gasol and Bynum are able to be so successful off the ball is the threat of Kobe. It’s also not as simple as saying, the Lakers need to get Bynum the ball more as a cutter. Cuts and spot-up options are deployed when a defense is made unbalanced by some other offensive action. There is an inherent tipping point in some of those possessions, a downward slide to that curve, where attempting to run those sets more often will lead to less success.

Kobe did have two offensive possessions this season where he was very effective, spotting up and coming off screens. In those two possession types he averaged 1.03 and 1.00 points per possession, far more than what he netted working on his own against the defense with the ball in his hand. But again, running offensive sets is not choosing from a fixed-price a’la carte menu. Creating more opportunities for Kobe to use those possession types changes the circumstances for every other offensive scenario.

In looking at this graph it’s clear that the Lakers have struck a balance. In fact, they averaged 106.0 points per 100 possessions this season, the 10th best mark in the league; so that balance has been more than a little successful. Yet, questions persist about whether that balance can be sustained for 48 minutes at a similar level of efficiency and whether it really represents all that is possible.

To add some more context to those points I’d like to look at the shape and structure of some other offenses. There is also one other curiosity before we move on, one which is not specific to the Lakers’ graph. You’ll notice that, for the most part, the offensive outcomes that rely on the efforts of a single individual (isolations and post-ups) fall mostly on the back half of the efficiency curve. That patterns holds true for the other three teams I looked at as well.

This next graph is for the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are another team with a very successful offense, 109.8 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the league this season, who also have a reputation for an isolation heavy attack.

Looking at the Thunder we see plenty of similarities with the Lakers. Isolations and post-ups, other than James Harden’s incredible iso production, are on the back half of the efficiency curve but are used quite a bit. In fact 58.0% of the Thunder’s possessions were used on that back half of that efficiency curve, almost the same as the Lakers’ 61.0%. The difference is that the back half of the Thunder’s curve is much more efficient than the Lakers’. Russell Westbrook’s pick-and-roll possessions were among the least efficient offensive outcomes for the Thunder, but they averaged 0.86 points per possession roughly the same as Kobe’s isos, pick-and-rolls and post-ups. The Thunder have a similar balance to the Lakers but their offense produced more efficient results because they ran each of those options a little bit more effectively.

For an offense with a completely different shape we have to turn to the San Antonio Spurs, the most effective offense in the league this season at 110.9 points per 100 possessions.

The shape of the Spurs’ offense contains a decided absence of peaks and valleys when compared to the Thunder and the Lakers. Their offensive shape also looks quite a bit smaller, and that’s because it is. The Spurs’ graph only shows 3,558 offensive possessions compared to 3,972 for the Lakers. The reason for that is the Spurs’ had quite a few offensive outcomes that occurred less than 100 times this season. Their offense was much more balanced and varied.

The Spurs graph also fits our trend of individual inefficiency, with the four least efficient outcomes being post-ups and isolations. We can attribute at least a measure of the Spurs offensive performance to the fact that these possessions types are used very infrequently as an outcome, just 21.0% of the possessions here; and are used more often to setup spot-up shots, which carry a much greater share of the efficiency load.

Just for fun, I thought it would be worthwhile exercise to include the league worst Charlotte Bobcats’ offense as well.

Here we see that the problem has nothing to do with balance, but rather the complete and utter lack of efficient scoring options.

Before I’m washed away in a tide of negative comments, I’ll clarify that this was not mean as an exercise in criticism, but rather in questioning. The Lakers’ offense is good, certainly good enough to keep them in championship contention. Kobe Bryant is an offensive force almost without equal, and his skills and abilities are at the heart of the Lakers’ attack. But as a fan of basketball, and one who loves watching masterful offensive orchestration, I feel like I’m getting short-changed when I watch the Lakers. They have three of the most effective offensive players in the league, ones who also happen to be incredibly versatile. Imagine what the manipulative and mischievous guile of Gregg Popovich could accomplish with their skills. To watch them so often be used to hit a single note, when harmony could be so much more satisfying, leaves me wanting more.

LeBron James and Other Assorted Love Songs

May 9, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

When I was in AP Biology in high school, my fantastic teacher Mr. Backiel would occasionally favor us with what he termed a “birdwalk.” This basically meant an anecdote or story only tangentially related to what we were supposed to be studying. For example, a story about a whole family who died at Thanksgiving dinner when they ate three-bean salad that had been infected with a bacteria in the canning process. Obviously, these were the best class periods. What follows is a birdwalk of epic proportions*.

With the arrival of the playoffs and another chance at redemption-via-championship for LeBron James, the doubters and the cheerleaders are up in arms. With the Heat trailing as time wound down in Game 4 of the series against the Knicks, James wasn’t the one with the ball in his hand. He didn’t even touch the ball on the final play. For some, it’s just more evidence. They only see him giving up the ball or not asserting himself and concluding that he’s not the equal of Bryant or Michael Jordan. But what if he’s the equal of Eric Clapton?

Seriously. Hear me out. Although not a high school phenom like James, Clapton joined the Yardbirds in 1963 at the age of 18 but after the Yardbirds scored a hit with “For Your Love” in 1965, they began pushing their sound more towards pop and Clapton left to join John Mayall’s Bluesbreakers, with whom he recorded Blues Breakers with Eric Clapton. The album showcases Clapton’s prodigious guitar talent and contains several of what remain his finest guitar solos on tracks like “Steppin’ Out” and “Have You Heard.” As it was with LeBron James’ play for St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, what became known as “The Beano Album” (because Clapton is reading a copy of the comic Beano on the cover) brought Clapton to national prominence. Some of James’ high school games were broadcast on national television, and it was difficult not to see what he could become, looking like a man among boys with tattoos covered up by decals. He seemed like the total package, in much the way that Clapton appeared ready to become and stay the best guitarist on the planet for some time.

Given his complete physical dominance of his high school competition, it’s possible that the notion of whether or not James had the “killer instinct” he’s broadly felt to lack never really came up. It was perhaps just assumed. But Clapton’s greatest shortcoming was put on display midway through the second side of the Bluesbreakers’ debut when he took the mic from Mayall to perform Robert Johnson’s “Rambling On My Mind.” It’s not a terrible performance or anything; as people should remember when it comes to James, the average aspects of Clapton’s musical repertoire are far better than 95% of the population’s. But in comparison to his muscular, ragged and often terrifying guitar work, his voice is tentative, polite.

When Clapton left the Bluesbreakers in 1966 to form Cream with drummer Ginger Baker and bassist Jack Bruce, his reputation as a world-class guitarist only grew. In 1967, a scrawled “CLAPTON IS GOD” infamously appeared on the wall of an Underground station in Islington. His reputation as a game-changer was written almost from the start. And so it went with LeBron James, who notched 25 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds in his NBA debut. But while Cream’s star rose on the backs of the combined effort and virtuosity of Bruce, Baker and Clapton, James’ Cleveland Cavaliers endured two lackluster seasons, missing out on the playoffs twice before advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in his third year and losing to the Detroit Pistons in seven games. During James’ first few years in Cleveland, there was little opportunity for anyone to question his heart simply because he wasn’t in a position to make a difference to his team in the playoffs. Although Jack Bruce was undeniably the lead singer of Cream and a fabulously talented vocalist, Clapton’s confidence in his own voice improved with Cream and he stepped up to sing lead on many of Cream’s best-known songs, including “Strange Brew,” “Badge,” “Crossroads” and co-lead on the biggest hit, “Sunshine of Your Love.” It’s telling that on the live version of “Crossroads” from Wheels of Fire that Bruce introduces Clapton at the end of the tune as “Eric Clapton, lead … vocals.” That pause there says a lot about how Clapton was thought of at the time: a guitarist first, vocalist second.

By now it should be clear that there’s more than one problem with the analogy I’m working with. The most glaring one is that the goal in professional sports is very clear cut: a championship is what marks a player as great. It’s a lot more muddy in the musical world. A Grammy? Cream didn’t win a Grammy until 2006 and that was a Lifetime Achievement Award. Jimi Hendrix, Queen, Led Zeppelin, The Who and many, many others have never won a Grammy. Sales? Cream’s third album, Wheels of Fire, was the first double-album to go platinum. And yet Cream were only together a little over two years before they broke up at the height of their powers in 1968. A large part of it was the ongoing contentiousness between Jack Bruce and  Ginger Baker (which stretched back to their time in Cream-precursor The Graham Bond Organisation), but Clapton was also growing tired of the giant expectations that were being inspired by the group’s success and the fact that they barely listened to one another while playing live. To all outsiders, it must have looked like Cream had won whatever you could call the championship of music, but to Clapton remained musically dissatisfied and so the band called it quits in 1969.

Their loss in the NBA Finals to the champion San Antonio Spurs in 2006-07 inspired a similar rebuild by the Cleveland Cavaliers. At the trade deadline in 2008, the team shipped out players including Donyell Marshall, Shannon Brown, Drew Gooden, and Larry Hughes in exchange for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. But neither this lineup, nor any of the ones that were tweaked for the two years after (which included bringing in players like Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O’Neal), could climb the mountain and bring home the NBA Championship. It was over these three years, from the 2007-08 season to the 2009-10 season, that the rumbles about James’ inability to lead his team to a championship started. Even as his personal numbers grew to near-legendary levels, he continued to falter on the league’s biggest stage—the playoffs—and the storm clouds of his departure began to loom.

In spite of his misgivings about the course that Cream’s career had taken, Clapton went from one supergroup to another in 1969. He’d long admired singer/keyboardist Steve Winwood and so he approached him about forming the group that would become Blind Faith. Winwood was, in a way, the Shaquille O’Neal of this analogy—an experienced player with his own success brought in as a counterweight. And as it went with the re-tooled Cavaliers, the expectations for Blind Faith were skyhigh immediately. When the group (with Ginger Baker once again on drums and Rick Grech on bass) made their concert debut in Hyde Park on June 7, 1969, it was in front of 100,000 people. As James discovered when Shaq came to the Cavs, it’s never as simple as just plugging people in. Blind Faith only had a handful of songs and the set devolved into lengthy jams—one of the things Clapton had wanted to leave behind with Cream—and the crowd roared their approval. When the group embarked on a U.S. tour in the summer of 1969, there were riots, and Clapton found himself a victim of the same kind of success and pressures that had brought down Cream. He had sought to spread the responsibility out (as a singer, he had once again retreated, with Winwood handling all the vocals on the group’s self-titled debut), but the expectations had only increased. In somewhat the same way, all the additions and mini-rebuilds in Cleveland had been undertaken for the purpose of building a supporting cast around James to help him share the burden, but every addition of a former All-Star or future Hall-of-Famer only made the team’s failures in the playoffs more acute.

And so James left Cleveland in a very public and fairly brutal way, joining up with his friends Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade on the Miami Heat. There’s no end to the ways this has been dissected and discussed, but it seems the end of Blind Faith was altogether more of a whimper than a bang. During the group’s only American tour, Clapton struck up a friendship with the opening act, Delaney & Bonnie. With the dissolution of the ill-fated supergroup, Clapton joined that group as a sideman, eventually using their rhythm section—bassist Carl Radle, drummer Jim Gordon, and keyboardist/vocalist Bobby Whitlock—to start Derek and the Dominos.

It is at this moment of their stories’ greatest confluence that they also separate, however. If James joining the Heat was the ultimate abdication of his anointed role as King James, a tacit recognition that he’s simply happier playing with other talented players, then it’s indeed very similar to Clapton’s sinking into anonymity with Delaney & Bonnie and going somewhat pseudonymous in Derek and the Dominos. (There’s even a guy named Duane/Dwyane to play the foil in each situation.) But James’ chapter with the Heat is still a work in progress, and it’s just possible that the path that Clapton took is instructive.

Returning to Clapton’s singing—his early Achilles heel—it’s interesting to note that in spite of his shrinking from the spotlight as a personality, both Layla and Other Assorted Love Songs and the self-titled debut he recorded just before forming Derek and the Dominos have him doing more singing and songwriting than he had ever done before. It’s as if he needed to pull back from his identity as a guitar god to become a more fully balanced and musical artist. On Layla, he’s grown into his voice substantially. He uses its softer curves ably, not striving for bluesy swagger on plaintive songs like opener “I Looked Away,” but also bending his desperation (he was in love with George Harrison’s wife Patti Boyd at the time) into the devastatingly heartbroken chorus of “Bell Bottom Blues” or the frantic worry of “Why Does Love Got To Be So Sad.” And so, weirdly, retreating from his role as the slashing, technically gifted lead guitarist of the Bluesbreakers, Cream, and Blind Faith allowed him to refashion himself as a more complete musician, allowed him to find his voice.

In only his second year with the Heat, the jury remains out on LeBron James’ evolution. But it doesn’t seem impossible that he doesn’t in fact need to become more aggressive, more of a killer, more of a clutch performer, whatever that means. Maybe he just needs to become clutch enough to win a championship and our understanding of him will change. Consider what happened to our understanding of Kevin Garnett’s game when he went from perpetual playoff disappointment on the Timberwolves to NBA Champion on the Celtics. Suddenly, his inability to take over games didn’t seem like such a liability, and it was his defense that became his defining characteristic. For the first five or six years of his career, Clapton was known as a guitarist first and a singer a distant second, but since the early 70s, that’s gradually changed. “Tears in Heaven” is, after all, not a fret-burning workout. Even so, Clapton’s voice is still not the equal technically of Winwood’s or Baker’s or countless other singers. But he’s learned to make it work for him as he’s grown into it. For all the outward success he experienced early in his career, Clapton ultimately had to step back from it and from the expectations it created to become the musician he wanted to be.

From such a young age, it looked like nothing could stop James, and he certainly hasn’t done himself any favors by often buying into the hype and marketing. But maybe he has to do more growing into his game than we give him credit for. He hasn’t experienced that outward success, hasn’t won those championships we expect of him—not yet. But maybe he doesn’t get there by being more than he is. Maybe he’s enough already and closer than we think.

Or maybe he needs to fall in love with George Harrison’s wife.

* About halfway through writing this, my boy Eric Maroun (who’s named for Eric Clapton, by the way), directed me to this post from last June which posits in a broad fashion the same thing I cover here. My hope is that we’ve got different enough takes to not make this redundant.

Waiting for the Train with Bob Cousy and Chuck Cooper

May 9, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

nolifebeforecoffee (flickr)

Over at Grantland today there is the depressing story of Greg Oden’s heart-wrenching personal journey through emotional and basketball rehab. It’s well worth reading and is a reminder that NBA players are persons. Like all of us, they have particular struggles to battle in their lives. But unlike them, we have the anonymity to privately deal with the issues. Having a close friend die and then being booed by thousands a day later is an experience few of us will ever have to face.

As it so happens, I’m reading Rise of a Dynasty: the ’57 Celtics, the First Banner, and the Dawning of a New America. Within this book is a powerful story recalling an exhibition game the Boston Celtics played in Charlotte, North Carolina in 1950.

Exhibition games were played far more often then than today as the NBA used it as a means to raise both revenue and interest in their sport. Well, being North Carolina in the 1950s, the supposedly public accommodations of Charlotte were not available for use by “colored” persons, including the Celtics’ lone black player, Charles Cooper. The forward was not allowed to eat with his teammates, watch a movie with them at the theater, or even spend the night with them after the game in a hotel. All because of segregation.

Thanks to these dehumanizing conditions, Cooper (the first black player drafted by the NBA) was scheduled to take a train back the night of the game instead of waiting until the morning and flying back with the team to Boston. Symbolic of the lonely, solitary existence early black players faced.

This plan was initially unknown to Cooper’s road roommate, the tender-hearted Bob Cousy. After learning about it from coach Red Auerbach, Cousy insisted on riding all the way back to Boston via Syracuse on the train with Cooper. The train back to Boston wouldn’t arrive until the wee hours of the morning, so Cooper and Cousy just walked the streets, passing the time. Eventually, nature’s call arrived and the two men searched for a restroom at the station. Finally finding one, Cousy was embarrassed to see the clean toilets marked “WHITE” and the decrepit one “COLORED”.

Tears filled his eyes as he felt not only ashamed for this moment he and Cooper had to endure, but perhaps also for the teasing he absorbed as a child in New York.

Cousy was the son of immigrants from Alsace and spoke with a French accent. Called “Flenchy” for his accented rolling of r’s by peers, his existence was made even more wretched by the indifference his parents showed to their only child. It was a loveless home he hastily abandoned after turning 18. The stoic guard would always be guarded and yet sympathetic with his teammates. Particularly showing this passion when he broke down crying in an interview years later talking about what more he could have done to aid Bill Russell against virulent racism in the late 1950s.

But on this night,  waiting together at the station, Cooper and Cousy ignored discussing the solemn moment they came upon the separate but unequal stalls. Finally, Cousy broached the topic by relating to Cooper all the horrors done to Jews in Europe just a few years earlier in World War II and the recent terrorist bombings of Catholic Churches in Louisiana. Cooper absorbed Cousy’s sincere attempt to tackle the issue of prejudice, but his slow retort revealed the enormous burdon borne by the lone black Celtic who couldn’t escape or evade the prejudice if he tried…

“That’s all right, but you can’t tell a Jew or a Catholic by looking at him.”

Cousy, again embarrassed, dropped the topic. And the two men continued their wait…

A painful reminder that we all deal with demons, whether personal or social, self-made or imposed by others. All we can do is gird ourselves and aid others in that battle like Cousy did (however timidly) with Cooper. Hopefully Greg Oden and anyone else with these battles find that strength and empathy from themselves and others.

NBA Playoffs: We’re Free At Last From Orlando-Indiana

May 9, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo by robnguyen01 via Flickr

Finally, mercifully, our long national nightmare is over. The Indiana Pacers closed out the Orlando Magic by a score of 105-87 to advance to the second round where, barring a historic choke job, they will take on the Miami Heat. Free at last, free at last. We are finally free from this series at last. Some quick thoughts on last night’s game:

  • Darren Collison was fantastic last night. He finished 9-10 from the field while dishing out six assists and committed his only turnover of the series. In fact, per ESPN Stats and Information, Collison finished the series with an absurd 23:1 assist to turnover ratio joining John Paxson, Fat Lever, and Eddie Johnson as the only players to finish a playoff series with at least 20 assists and one turnover or fewer. I’d imagine that Collison would like to bottle up his fourth quarter performance and keep it on a shelf somewhere if he could. Collison posted 15 points on 7-7 shooting from the floor and threw in three assists for good measure to lead to Indy outscoring Orlando 36-16 in that quarter alone. Coach Frank Vogel’s decision to bring Collison off the bench has proved huge dividends thus far for Indiana, and it’s a matchup that they need to exploit when going against the likes of Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole.
  • This game was won in two areas for the Pacers: in the paint and on the break. Looking at their shot performance all night below, they were hot from pretty much anywhere, but the absence of Dwight Howard was truly felt last night as Indiana finished 23-35 (65.7%) from the painted area. Meanwhile, the Pacers helped put this game away with fast break points by outscoring Orlando 18-0 in this area.

  • Holding leads continues to be an issue for Indiana going forward. After blowing a 15 point lead first half lead, I seriously contemplated copy and pasting my section on blowing leads from my Game 4 recap in here. It bears reiterating; although they managed to survive against Orlando, letting the Heat back into games is a recipe for disaster. It is imperative that the Pacers learn how to close teams out and remove the drama as early as possible. Give credit to Orlando where its due for fighting back when their backs were pressed against the wall, but the fact remains that Indiana had multiple opportunities in each game throughout the series to step on the Magic’s throat and put away the game much earlier than they actually did.
  • Where has this Jameer Nelson been all series? Nelson exploded for 27 points including hitting five of his eight three-point attempts in leading the Magic. Nelson was coming off three consecutive dismal shooting performances (4-13 in Game 2, 3-10 in Game 3, 4-15 in Game 4) before, in a classic too-little too late moment, busting out of his shooting slump by going 11-21 from the floor in Game 5. However, nearly all of his damage was done in quarters one through three as the Pacers bottled him up in the fourth holding him to 1-5 shooting in the period and allowing just two points, none of which came after the 7:48 mark.
  • Coming into the series, I think everyone, yours truly included, figured that the Magic would catch fire for one game from three point range and bludgeon Indiana that way. After all, they had led the league in both three pointers made and attempted throughout the regular season averaging 10.2 3PM and 27.0 3PA per game, good enough for a 37.5% shooting percentage. Unfortunately for Orlando, that scenario never materialized. They finished the series shooting 34.1% from long distance while averaging 8.4 makes on 24.6 attempts per game. While they still led all playoff teams in postseason attempts and makes, they never had that one game where they went crazy from three. Indiana avoided a dagger because Orlando couldn’t hit theirs.

To paraphrase Jerry Springer, it’s now time for my final thought. Congratulations to the Pacers and their fans on their first playoff series win since 2005. For a city that saw more success out of Butler’s basketball program than its professional team over the past several seasons, it’s exciting to finally see people in the area talking Pacers basketball again. Though there were early reports in the game that there were a number of empty seats in the arena, it ended up being a sellout crowd last night indicating a major step up for a team that finished with the fifth worst home attendance (based on percent of seats filled) in the NBA this year. Although I don’t expect the Pacers to make it past Game 5 against the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals, anything in this Season Without Reason is possible. For now, the Pacers and their fans should be happy knowing that, at least for now, basketball is truly back in Indiana.

Statistical Support for this story from NBA.com

NBA Playoffs: What We Talk About When We Talk About Lakers-Nuggets, Game 4

May 7, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Some thoughts from the Lakers’ 92-88 Game 4 win over the Nuggets:

  • This was a pretty quintessential JaVale McGee game: one quarter featuring a couple of monster blocks that were also blatant goaltends, and another quarter in which he was legitimately a force on both ends for the Nuggets. It was a disappointing follow-up to his monster Game 3, but he’s still emerged as a player who could possibly swing a game or two in the stretch run of this series. He’s picked a good time to put his off-the-charts athleticism together into a legitimate NBA skillset, because he’s the only prayer the Nuggets have of defending Andrew Bynum. Who else is going to? Kosta Koufos? Timofey Mozgov? Kenneth Faried has proven himself more than capable in his postseason debut, but he lacks the size to contend with Bynum or Pau Gasol, let alone both. The Nuggets’ ability to push this series to six or even seven games will come down to McGee.
  • For the Lakers, the story of this series has been the emergence of Jordan Hill, who last night posted an impressive 12 points and 11 rebounds. Suddenly, the Lakers have another productive frontcourt player to augment Bynum and Gasol, and Game 4 showed once again the significant advantage Los Angeles holds over Denver in that area.
  • Early on, Nuggets defenders got away with a greater amount of contact on Gasol and Bynum than we’re used to seeing. That’s the biggest reason it’s unlikely the Nuggets will be able to steal Game 5 at Staples—McGee and Mozgov won’t be getting those calls on the road.
  • The Nuggets’ biggest hope? They have yet to get good performances out of Danilo Gallinari and Ty Lawson in the same game. Gallo had a solid game last night, scoring 20 points on 9-of-16 shooting with 6 rebounds, even if he went an uncharacteristic 0-for-4 from beyond the arc. Lawson didn’t shoot the ball nearly as well, and had two turnovers. If they can put it together on the same night tomorrow in LA, Denver has a shot at bringing the series back home for a Game 6.
  • Speaking of Gallo, we can’t talk about last night without talking about the runaway #FlopOfTheNight winner. Late in the fourth quarter with the Nuggets trailing by three, Gallinari was on the receiving end of a hard pick from Pau Gasol, one which may or may not have involved a shot to the throat. This caused him to hit the floor and stay down for the rest of the Lakers’ possession. It’s a tough call, and not a clear-cut one. It was the sort of play that, in a lower-stakes situation, may have been called a foul, but some combination of the Lakers’ lead, the gray-area nature of the hit, and Gallo’s over-the-top selling of the contact (seriously, he made it look like Andrew Bynum/J.J. Barea, Part II) worked against the Nuggets.
  • So, how about Steve Blake? It was his three-pointer with 18 seconds remaining that put the Lakers up six and effectively ended Denver’s shot at evening the series. It’s the exact sort of shot the Lakers signed him to take, but also one their fans are, for the most part, used to him either passing up or missing. But he came up big last night, and pushed the Nuggets to the brink of elimination.
  • Worth noting: The Lakers won a close game without getting much from Kobe Bryant down the stretch. The last shot he took—a missed three—came with 2:41 remaining. It was Blake and Ramon Sessions who instead hit the shots that put the Nuggets away. Kobe, by the way, had 22 points on 10-for-25 shooting. So a pretty typical Kobe game, just without the hero-ball.
  • Finally, Kenyon Martin’s stalker. There’s so much about Savannah McMillan-Christmas that I don’t understand. On the one hand, I’m impressed by her ability to get courtside seats at a playoff game despite having previously been banned from the Pepsi Center. On the other, Martin plays for the Clippers now. They’re playing tonight in Los Angeles. This wasn’t exactly classified information. And if someone is this committed to stalking a player, one would think part of that process would involve a cursory keeping up with NBA player movement.

NBA Playoffs: The Knicks Live To Die Another Die… But Seriously Congrats New York

May 6, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Wow. That was a whole lot of fun for everyone involved. The Knicks finally got a playoff win.  Sure Miami will still win the series, likely in five games, but that still had to feel really good for New York and their fans. Here are my thoughts and musings from the game:

  • In some ways it’s really admirable that Amar’e wants to play, in other ways it seems really silly. If you’re a New York fan it’s difficult to feel too excited about having him out there; it’s no small secret that the Knicks have looked better with lineups the feature Melo in iso, surrounded by shooters. However, given how well equipped Miami is to defend Melo and the incredible job they’ve done so far this series at limiting his ability to score, the Knicks only chance may be to put Amar’e out there and hope for a reversal of the discouraging trend.
  •  The Heat’s defense has been absolutely unbelievable on Carmelo Anthony. Yes, a lot of that has to do with LeBron James. Carmelo has generally been reluctant to attack the rim whenever LeBron is checking him, which is both understandable and somewhat odd. I am by no means an expert in the matchup history between Carmelo and LBJ, but in the past I’ve seen Carmelo be much more willing to go at James and try and get to the basket. Maybe LeBron’s gotten better as a defender, maybe the help defense surrounding him is better, maybe Carmelo just feels he needs to conserve energy since there other scoring options on the Knicks are few. Whatever it is, Carmelo has been generally ineffective through 3 games and that’s no small feat. Coming into the the playoffs, there was not a scorer in the league that was playing better than Melo; the Heat’s ability to corral Anthony has been as important as any factor so far in this series.
  • Credit Stoudemire, he’s been aggressive and active both offensively and rebounding the basketball. Despite having the left hand wrapped up with layers upon layers of tape, gauze, and steri strips, he’s been really effective. This as well as I’ve seen Amar’e play in a very long time. Carmelo has been getting some pretty good looks, but so far has been generally unable to put them down. He needs to keep staying aggressive and refuse to settle for quick pull ups; it’s the Knicks only chance at winning this game
  • This is a really really ugly game. Per Tom Haberststroh of the ESPN Heat Index, just over a quarter into the game the Heat and Knicks had combined to miss 20 of their 23 jumpers. Yikes. Also over 4 minutes into the 2nd the quarter the Knicks have failed to register a field goal. PLEASE GOD MAKE IT STOP.
  • The Heat are doing an incredible job of shadowing Novak. They are really determined to keep him from getting any kind of space. Really smart move. The only way the Knicks win this is probably behind a Novak-Smith 3 point barrage, if you prevent them from getting good looks, it makes it difficult for that to happen. For his part, Woodson needs to make some adjustments, and get creative in finding ways to get Novak free. I feel like at some point, we should also talk about how generally awful JR Smith has been offensively. For the series he’s shooting below 40% from the field and 25% from behind the arc, which really hurts considering that’s supposed to be his specialty. The Knicks needed JR to be an X-factor for them in this series, unfortunately he hasn’t delivered at all.
  • Multiple times in this series, Tyson Chandler has lost his composure, and it’s cost his team. Don’t get me wrong Tyson has been this team’s MVP for the whole year, but he can’t be letting his emotions get the best of him, even if it’s only for a moment.
  • The Knicks finally made the Heat pay for their fronting of Carmelo Anthony, with action on the baseline from Landry Fields. It only took them three and a half games to figure out it. Congrats guys!
  • Oh so apparently the solution to the Knicks’ 3rd quarter offensive woes is to start JR Smith(who once again, is shooting 40% from the field, and 25% from behind the arc). Actually as crazy as this may sound I think it’s the right move. They Knicks need to hope for something kind of unexpected to happen and JR is capable of scoring 10 points in just as many seconds; might as well roll the dice. And of course JR goes and dribbles it out of bounds while trying to go around the back. At the very least this will be entertaining.
  • I can’t believe I’m saying this: get Amar’e the ball more. He’s been pretty incredible getting his shots and finishing them, something that he’s struggled mightily with at times this year. I mean absolutely no one expected this kind of game from Amar’e right?. This is completely and totally out of the blue. Amar’e punches glass, gets a ton of stitches, and then you plays his best ball the  season? Ya, this year makes absolutely no sense. I’m not even sure why I’m trying to “analyze” or explain any of this, I might as well be drawing pictures of magical creatures over here.
  • After a couple bonehead plays, JR Smith makes a beautiful pass to Melo on the break, then gets a steal and hits a huge three. Mike Woodson is a genius!
  • Oh man, Baron just went down with one of the more ugly knee injuries you’ll ever see. This doesn’t look good at all. The playoffs really need to stop hurting people.  Man. Ugh. Ya, this is no fun.
  • Really silly for Chandler to pick up his fourth while contesting a jumper. Credit Woodson, who is normally very conservative with players in foul trouble, for leaving Chandler in. If Chandler sits for an extended period of time the Knicks are done, might as well ride it out and see if you can get the win. In general benching players with fouls doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Let the guys play it out, don’t let the fouls defeat you by giving away a section of the game… And as I’m typing this Chandler comes up with a huge block on a nice Wade drive. See, I was right! (no, there is no confirmation bias here. Go away.)
  • That was a really really fun third quarter. The Knicks looked like they were moving slowly but surely toward elimination, until a few fastbreaks, a Tyson Chandler block, and a JR Smith three got the energy up and the crowd into the game. The Heat got a little stagnant on the other end, as they are wont to do from time to time, which allowed the Knicks to jump out to a 6 point lead. Also, good to see Woodson finally used some screens and action to get Anthony open to receive the ball more easily.  Melo responded by going 5-8 in the quarter for 11 points.
  • After leaving Chandler in with 4 fouls, Woodson is waiting way too long to put Chandler back in after he picked up his fifth. You have to roll with you best players, no point in waiting till you are down to throw Chandler back in. Put him in before it’s too late. Seriously, I can’t stand this tactic, it makes no sense. You end up beating yourself by keeping Chandler off the court. Oh well, I’m just crazily rambling at this point. Point is put Chandler in and live with the result.
  • Yes Smith has been terrible on offense, he’s taken lots of bad shots and had some terrible turnovers, but he’s also done and admirable job defending Dwyane Wade. Is he as good as Iman Shumpert would’ve been? No, probably not, but still Smith deserves credit for his defensive effort which hasn’t always been there during his career.
  • The Knicks ran a really beautiful play to get Anthony an open lane on a back door cut, and then Dwyane Wade came over and made an absolutely unbelievable block on Melo’s dunk attempt. Totally clean. Totally awesome. Totally badass. Dwyane Wade will end you.
  • Mike Bibby just made a crucial playoff three pointer… in 2012… In real life… In The National Basketball Association… Against the Heat… Over Dwyane Wade… While sitting on top of a unicorn.
  • Wow. What. A. Game. The Knicks made it a little more difficult than it needed to be missing 3 free throws within the last minute, but they got the win. Carmelo Anthony was flat out phenomenal in the second half going 9-for-15 from field for 23 points and adding 3 assists. Melo called upon all of his other-wordly offensive abilities to help give the Knicks their first playoff win since the dissolution of the Holy Roman Empire. You have to wonder why Spolestra stuck with Battier on Melo almost entirely through the fourth quarter, sure Melo may have still hit some of the same shots but why not put the best wing defender in the world on him? Sure hindsight is 20/20 but I think that’s one you can catch with regular ole present sight. Still, the focus of this game really deserves to be on the Knicks and the city of New York. They finally got that playoff win, that’s no small thing. Congrats New York that was a lot of fun and it had to feel good. You know in the sort of small victories before impending doom kind of way.
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