Conceptual Architecture

By Jared Dubin

These teams are more similar than you might imagine at first glance. Stylistic differences aside, both the Lakers and Nuggets sported an above average offense (Denver’s was slightly better this year) and a below average defense (Denver’s was slightly worse) during the regular season. They each played basically average – or below – basketball for three quarters of the game and had one quarter where they simply dominated their competition. Both teams excelled at getting to the free throw line at one end of the court and preventing their opponent from getting there at the other end. Neither team shot very well from beyond the 3-point line.

But while they do have their similarities, the main difference between the Lakers and the Nuggets is one that strikes to the core of their very existence. Los Angeles has the glitz and the glam, the Kobe and the Bynum and the Pau and… not so much beyond that (especially since they’ll be without Metta World Peace, their best perimeter defender, for much of the series). Denver has been lauded across the Internet as a great TEAM (always make sure to use capital letters for emphasis); they spread the ball around, they’re unselfish and they work TOGETHER.

The Nuggets come at you in waves. They push the ball up the court and try to ram it down your throat. They’ll keep throwing different combinations of bodies out there, and one night’s crunch time lineup might bear little or no resemblance to the one they use the next. At different times Ty Lawson or Andre Miller might be running the show, and they might be flanked by any combination of Denver’s plethora of wing players – Arron Afflalo, Corey Brewer, Danilo Gallinari – along with any of their multiple, versatile front court players – Kenneth Faried, Al Harrington, JaVale McGee or Timo Mozgov (though not so much with the Mozgov lately). Their deep bench is their greatest strength, even more so than their strong starting lineup, though the two often feel as if they flow together. It’s a new age basketball team; constantly cutting and always in motion. Pick-and-rolls, getting out in transition and spot-up 3′s. Every piece, every part, matters equally.

The Lakers are more traditionally constructed. They have an alpha dog – Kobe – along with two supporting stars – Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. They have a defensive stopper (Peace, suspended for much of the series) and a point guard who controls the flow of the game and acts as a secondary offensive option – Ramon Sessions. Their bench – Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Josh McRoberts, Jordan Hill, Troy Murphy, Andrew Goudelock – is really just there to get the starters some rest before they can come back in and resume dominating the touches. The Lakers run through their sets with precision and if they don’t get an open look out of it they ask Kobe to create his own shot off the dribble or they dump it into Bynum or Pau in the post. They isolate their best players in the spots they like the most and try to get the best shot they possibly can out of the possession.

The series itself is a war of contrasting styles. It’s hero ball vs.”You never know who’s going to get the last shot.” It’s Mike Brown’s methodical, slow the game down and out-execute the opposition approach vs. George Karl’s free-wheeling, make order out of the chaos you create paradigm. It’s top heavy vs. balanced. It’s Kobe System vs. TEAM. It’s a battle for basketball’s soul.

The Death of Reason

By Jared Dubin

Is it possible that the Lakers could have the three best players in this series and still lose? Ty Lawson is going to be a problem for the Lakers’ point guards to defend. Ramon Sessions and Steve Blake simply do not have the speed to keep up with him and he should be able to get into the middle of the lane often. Once that happens, Los Angeles’ defense is in trouble. Lawson, despite his small stature, is a good finisher around the basket; he’s able to make shots over, through and around various big men. If the Lakers’ defense collapses on him, he can kick it out to one of the Nuggets’ multiple strong outside shooters, whether it’s Danilo Gallinari, Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington or Corey Brewer.

Gallinari, who did not play well in any of the Nuggets-Lakers games this season, should be a pain for Los Angeles as well. Not having Metta World Peace, their best wing defender, to hassle Gallo, get physical with him off the dribble and generally make him work for his points is going to make a suspect defense even more so. If Gallo gets going, the Lakers are in for a long series.

LA’s big advantage over Denver is their size, but if the Nuggets can get either Bynum or Gasol in foul trouble, they can trot out one of their many small ball lineups and try to run the Lakers off the floor. They’ll probably try to do this by repeatedly involving them both in pick-and-rolls. The Lakers struggled mightily to defend pick-and-roll ball-handlers this season, and when they were able to corral the dribbler they often left weak side shooters wide open. Luckily for the Nuggets, this is exactly the kind of thing their offense thrives on. Bynum especially can be taken advantage of in pick-and-roll situations with athletic big men. In Harrington, JaVale McGee and Kenneth Faried, Denver has exactly the kind of guys who can make things difficult for him.

Chemical Reactions Plate Tectonics And You

by Scott Leedy

The initial reaction to the Nuggets-Lakers series might be something like, “That’s an unfortunate draw for the Nuggets; they are going to get killed on the inside.” While this may certainly be the way the series plays out, the Nuggets were actually very good defending in post-up situations – allowing a PPP of 0.78, good for the 3rd best in the league as Sebastian Pruiti noted yesterday over in his preview at Grantland. Looking at the individual match-up of Gasol and Bynum versus the Nuggets this year might give us a clearer picture. Interestingly enough, in 4 games against the Nuggets this year, both Gasol and Bynum posted lower offensive efficiency numbers than normal while still both posting very good TS% (59.4 for Gasol, 66.6 for Bynum). I am more apt to put stock in the true shooting numbers, as the offensive efficiency numbers seems are likely too team-dependent to mean as much. Also worth noting is that both Gasol and Bynum posted individual defensive numbers that were significantly better than their yearly average. This suggests that the Nuggets might have even more difficulty scoring over the Lakers’ size then they will trying to shut down Gasol and Bynum on the other end.

Another issue for the Nuggets is obviously defending Kobe Bryant. The Nuggets retain a trio of very good perimeter defenders in Brewer, Gallo (0.66 PPP allowed in isolation) and Afflalo (though to a lesser extent this year) that will likely be able to contain Bryant fairly well. Bryant posted a negative net efficiency in his games against the Nuggets and posted an offensive efficiency nearly 9 points lower than his yearly average. Perhaps even more indicative of Kobe’s struggles against the Nuggets is his abysmal 34.6 TS%. While it is unlikely that Kobe will shoot this poorly over the entire series, it does appear as though the Nuggets have the personnel and a defensive strategy capable of bothering Bryant, and neutralizing his offensive abilities as much as possible.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Nuggets will no doubt look to attack the Lakers by pushing the pace. The Lakers allowed 1.18 PPP in transition which ranked 27th in the league. In the half court, the Lakers post generally good, but not great numbers in every area. The Nuggets will need to rely most heavily on the skills of Ty Lawson, who’s gifted both in direct drives off the dribble and in using pick and rolls to score and set up his teammates. In the match-ups against the Lakers this year, Lawson has generally struggled on offense – posting a TS% of 47.5 in four games. In order for the Nuggets to have a chance he has to find away to get into the lane and finish amongst the trees or find open cutters and shooters for easy points.

The other player that will be of great import for the Nuggets is Danilo Gallinari. While Gallinari struggled mightily against the Lakers this year – posting a very poor TS% of 38.0 in their four match-ups – the Lakers will be without their best perimeter defender in Ron Artest for most of, if not all of this series. Unfortunately for Nuggets fans, ever since his return form injury Gallo has looked slower and has been unable to drive past anyone. Gallo needs to regain his speed and aggressiveness in order for the Nuggets to have any chance at stealing this series for the Lakers.

Ultimately, the Lakers’ chances in both this series and the playoffs in general will hinge upon the play of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. If Pau mysteriously disappears like he did last year the Lakers, could be upset at any point. However, if both Gasol and Bynum play focused, aggressive and smart basketball the Nuggets will have very little chance at extending this series beyond even 5 games.

As If We Knew

by Sean Highkin

• Kobe Bryant will score 40 points twice during this series. He will take at least 70 shots in those two games.
• The Nuggets will steal one of the first two games at Staples, and it will largely be seen as Pau Gasol’s fault. This will kick the tires on the same Gasol-disappearing-in-the-playoffs narrative that prevailed last spring. Gasol will respond to this by dominating at least one subsequent game, likely more.
• Danilo Gallinari will take advantage of the absence of Metta World Peace and break out of his slump against the Lakers to have a monster series.
• Prediction: Ultimately, the Bynum-Gasol front line will be too much for the Nuggets to handle. The Lakers will win in six.

Conceptual Architecture

By Amin Vafa

There’s a sense of comfort you get when you see San Antonio and Utah are in the playoffs. The universe seems balanced. The future seems bright and predictable, but in a safe and soothing way. There’s a familiar formula that builds, like a movie you’ve seen a thousand times. Pop strings together the most impressive wins with the most fundamentally impressive cast of characters. You know all of Tim, Tony, and Manu’s lines by heart, and even though you feel like you know how it’s going to end (the gang raising the Larry O’Brien trophy over their heads in front of thousands of adoring fans), you never fast-forward. You just want to watch every scene over and over until Pop rushes into your living room and makes you take a break.

In Utah’s case, they’re more of a dependable TV series than a movie. All of your favorite characters show up every week, and they’re in the finest form during sweeps. Every couple of years they recast the roles, but the characters stay the same. The dazzling point guard! The dependable big man! The wily wing! And let’s not forget the curmudgeonly coach. You can flip through the channels, and you’ll always find a good one to watch. “Have I see this one before? I think I’ve seen this one before.” Maybe you have, and maybe you haven’t. Either way, it’s a damn good episode.

But things are slightly different this year. That San Antonio movie hasn’t played its way to the end in about five years. There’s been an injury. Or a blown foul call. Or an act of God. Or Dirk Nowitzki. Or Kobe Bryant. San Antonio is the top seed again this season, and three out of their five past obstacles don’t appear to be so obstacle-y this year (wait a sec… is having Joey Crawford ref your game an act of God in itself?). Can we make it all the way through the movie again after all these years? More importantly, can they?

Last season in Utah, the ratings dipped so low that the show totally jumped the shark. They killed off the point guard AND the coach! The two most popular characters! Next thing you know, the shooting guard will be replaced by a smoke monster. And what happened after all that? They didn’t make the postseason. This year, they went with what they knew and revamped their old characters. And look where they are: back in the postseason (with a few character substitutions here and there), and they even gave us a great lead up to sweeps week!

The West seems whole again with these two teams on board. It’s tough to know what’s going to happen. One team’s coming in hot. One team’s been hot all year. Injuries haven’t been a factor (fingers crossed), and they’ve both got front-court rotations that most other teams covet.

You make think you know how this one goes, but make sure you watch it all the way to the end.

The Death of Reason

By Jared Dubin

The Spurs might have one of those games where they just go absolutely bonkers on offense and drop like 125 points. San Antonio ‘s attack led the league with 108.5 points per 100 possessions (pts/100) this season, and they’ve been even better of late. Over the last 10 games of the year, they scored an utterly ridiculous 117.4 pts/100. Meanwhile, Utah finished the season with the league’s 19th ranked defense at 103.6 pts/100 allowed. They’re the worst defensive team in the playoffs.

Lately, the Jazz have been using a big lineup featuring Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Al Jefferson all on the floor at the same time. That lineup, while effective offensively because Millsap can bully smaller defenders in the post (though mostly with faceup moves, which should help Kawhi Leonard or Stephen Jackson or whoever winds up guarding him at that spot), has left them especially vulnerable to the Spurs’ favorite offensive weapon: the corner 3-pointer. Over the last 10 games, Utah has allowed their opponents the 4th-most corner 3 attempts in the NBA. Though the Jazz have been in the top half of the league in corner 3-point percentage allowed, research done by our own Eric Maroun and Gothic Ginobili‘s Aaron McGuire for this Zach Lowe piece on SI.com show that limiting attempts matters more to a defense. San Antonio is the league’s preeminent corner 3 team, ranking 1st in makes, 2nd in attempts and 4th in percentage.

Four Spurs are shooting over 40% on corner 3′s this season: Danny Green, Matt Bonner, Kawhi Leonard and Manu Ginobili. At any given time, they’ll have two or three knock-down shooters on the court to spread the defense thin around their potent pick-and-rolls with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan or Tiago Splitter. Parker will probe his way into the lane for a floater, hit Duncan or Splitter on the roll or the pop or catch a defender cheating and fire a skip pass to one of the many catch-and-shoot threats on the floor. Given Utah’s weaknesses, the Spurs are perfectly equipped to attack the Jazz with their combination of side-to-side ball movement, quick-hitting pick-and-rolls, cuts to the basket and long-range snipers.

If the Jazz go to their big lineup, rather than matching Utah with side, Gregg Popovich might do better to spread the Jazz out as much as he can and take advantage of San Antonio’s edge in speed and quickness. For one night, they may catch fire and it’ll carry them to victory.

Chemical Reactions, Plate Tectonics & You

By Jared Dubin

San Antonio loves to run those high pick-and-rolls with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. Luckily for them, that’s really the perfect way to take advantage of Al Jefferson on the defensive end. Jefferson struggles to cover large amounts of space, to pick up guards off the dribble coming around picks and to close out on pick-and-pop shooters. That’s exactly what the Spurs’ offense flows from. They have that Parker-Duncan pick-and-roll in the middle of the court and they’ll spread the rest of your defense wire thin by stationing shooters like Matt Bonner, Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard on the perimeter.

If you commit more than just the two initial defenders to the pick-and-roll defense, Parker will hit you with a quick skip pass and a 3-pointer is in the air before you even know it. If you try to defend that pick-and-roll straight up, especially if Jefferson is involved, Parker’s going to get right into the lane for a lay-up or a floater. And if you double Parker, you’re banking on Tim Duncan missing 15-18 foot jumpers or not being able to hit cutters after the defense collapses on him when he catches the ball in the lane off the roll. All risky propositions.

When Parker’s not on the court, it’s Manu Ginobili or Gary Neal running those pick-and-rolls, and they’re both more dangerous outside shooters than Parker, even if they’re not on the same level as creators or passers. They each present a unique challenge for Utah’s defense, which hasn’t exactly been up to snuff this season.

On the other side of the court, San Antonio figures to struggle with Utah’s size. Everyone is pointing to how the Grizzlies overwhelmed the Spurs with their big men in the first round last season as an example for how the Jazz should attack this series. It will be interesting to see whether Gregg Popovich decides to counter this big lineup with the Duncan-Tiago Splitter defensive pairing and give up a little bit on offense or whether he depends on Bonner, DeJuan Blair and maybe a little bit of Kawhi Leonard the four spot. Bonner can draw either Favors or Millsap away from the lane on the opposite end and has been a credible post defender this season. Blair is a good rebounder and has been better on D this year than last, but Splitter is probably the best equipped of the three to handle Jefferson or Favors on the inside.

In the past, Popovich would have made that offense/defense trade in an instant, but with the way this particular version of the Spurs is constructed, it may not be worth it. San Antonio may just try to outscore Utah in this series, especially since they’ve got the firepower to do it.

As If We Knew

By Jared Dubin

Are the Jazz for real?

Their hope is alive.

But that hope will die.

Spurs in 5.

Conceptual Architecture:

By Scott Leedy

Tony Allen is the most entertaining player in this league. He’s fun, he’s intense, he’s a pitbull, he misses open layups. He pays money for missing open layups. He waves towels and cheers, and quotes EA Sports in interviews. He gives Kobe Bryant fits and refuses to give any offensive player kudos. He works hard, he’s one of the most intense and gifted defensive players in the league. What he lacks in offensive skill or awareness he makes up for with hustle. He won’t back down or give in to anyone. Tony Allen is all about the grit and grind.

Chris Paul is all business. Sure the aesthetic of his game is fatally mesmerizing, but that belies Paul’s no-nonsense dedication and drive. The ever apparent flashes of stylistic brilliance is only a byproduct of Paul’s masterful craftsmanship; never a true attempt at flash for the audience’s ask, only the appearance of showmanship. Chris Paul is always in total control, always finding the right shot or pass, always coming off the pick with just the right amount of pace, deploying in-and-out dribbles to freeze defenders, behind the back maneuvers to split double teams, or a hard step back dribble into an easy unguarded mid ranger jumper. Paul doesn’t let the game come to him, he bends the game to his will. Paul is a fearsome figure, capable of single handedly crippling the opponents defense. He is intense, he is willful, he will not quit, he wants to destroy your team. Chris Paul is all about the grit and grind.

While they are entirely different players, and seemingly unrelated, Chris Paul and Tony Allen embody the combination of nasty toughness and sheer fun that will define this series. Neither Paul’s Clippers nor Allen’s Grizzlies will give an inch. Both will fight claw, flop, steal, and compete until the last buzzer sounds. The Grizzlies defense will hound, and pester the Clippers into unwanted situations and turnovers .They will do everything they can to neutralize Paul, to limit his effectiveness. In response Paul will do everything in his power to elude, escape, and destroy the Grizzlies defense.

For their part both teams will also provide a series that will be entertaining as entertaining as it is gritty. Chris Paul, with his artfully choreographed dribble drives and deft passing, and Blake Griffin with his always highlight worthy acrobatics. For the Grizzlies, Marc Gasol has become a pure joy to watch – combining brilliant passing out of the post with a feather soft touch around the rim. Rudy will no doubt be active and high flying as ever, while O.J. Mayo is bound go on more than one torrid scoring run. Still, this series won’t be won by highlight plays or beautiful acts of basketball brilliance. This series will be won by Zach Randolph committing himself in the post. It will be defined by Paul’s ability to overcome Memphis’ relentless defense. It will come down to a few important plays, a few important moments. It will be embodied by the late game match-up between Paul and Allen. A fight between the tormenting defender and the relentless offensive wizard. This series will be nasty and viciously competitive. This series will be all about the grit and grind.

The Death of Reason

by Sean Highkin

What if this series was over quickly? What if it was relatively boring without a lot of close games? That, to me, would be the most insane, illogical possible outcome. These teams are too perfectly matched to each other for this series not to produce several thrilling, down-to-the-wire contests with a handful of overtimes. But what if that didn’t happen? What if Chris Paul is just ridiculous and not even Tony Allen can keep him in check? What if Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol neutralize Blake Griffin and none of the Clips’ shooters get going? One of these things could happen just as easily as these two teams playing the most compelling basketball we’ll see this spring.

On paper, this is the most exciting, watchable matchup of the first round, but there’s room on either side for it to disappoint. A series with Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Rudy Gay being uneventful would define the phrase “season without reason.” Then again, as I write this, I’m watching Game 1 of the series between the Pacers and the Dwight Howard-less Magic. This is the series I was almost positive would consist entirely of blowouts, and it’s so far been exciting, back-and-forth basketball. It’s just as plausible that this awesome Clippers-Grizzlies pairing will suck. It probably won’t, but predicting which basketball will be good and which won’t can be just as futile at times as picking winners and losers.

Chemical Reactions Plate Tectonics And You

by Scott Leedy

It’s no secret that the Clippers as a whole don’t defend particularly well. However, there are a couple specific areas of weakness that the Grizzlies should look to exploit. The first tool the Grizzlies should look to utilize as often as possible is Marc Gasol. First, Gasol’s great gift for passing out of both the high and low post will prove incredibly useful against the Clippers. According to mySynergySports, the Clippers surrender 1.24 points per possession (PPP) off the cut (24th in the league) while also surrendering .98 PPP on spot up shots (23rd in the league). In watching the tape Gasol, once in position, was able to find cutters who entered vacated space underneath the hoop, or throw cross-court to an open shooter for a spot up three.  Another area is which Gasol should prove valuable is as the roll man in a pick and roll. Gasol is very good at timing his roll and finding space, and proves deft at both scoring (1.06 PPP in roll man situations good for 39th in among all players) and finding an open cutter after receiving the pass from the ball handler. Furthermore, The Clippers were awful this year defending the roll man; they gave up 1.04 PPP (26th in the league). Look for the Grizzlies to be successful utilizing Gasol both in post up and pick and roll situations.

Another match-up the Grizzlies are sure to exploit is Blake Griffin guarding Zach Randolph. As Sebastian Pruiti noted in his terrific playoff preview over at Grantland, Randolph can dominate Griffin if he stays aggressive and pounds Griffin inside. Despite all of Griffin’s athleticism and gifts, he still remains a very questionable defender. Randolph – if healthy – is very gifted in both isolation and post up situations. Furthermore, while Griffin is a good rebounder, he relies on his athleticism a little too often. Failing to to box out Randolph – one of the league’s most gifted offensive rebounders – could prove fatal to the Clippers’ chances in this series.

For the Clippers, their hopes hinge almost entirely on the play of Chris Paul. If he can capture the same magic that inspired his incredible play last year against the Lakers, they have a shot. However, Clippers fans should be somewhat wary of Paul’s ability to shoulder such a large load against a Memphis team that is excellent at defending the Clippers strengths. Obviously Paul is a gifted scorer as the ball handler in pick and roll situations. This season, he netted .94 PPP – good for 20th among all players in the league. Paul is also incredibly deadly in isolation situations; he posted the 8th highest rate in the league with 1.08 PPP.

The Clippers are also ranked second amongst all teams in points per possession for the roll man (1.04 PPP), likely a product of Paul’s brilliant pick and roll passing and both Griffin and Jordan’s athleticism and finishing ability.  Unfortunately for the Clippers, Memphis ranks very well in defending two of these three areas and above average in the other. Memphis posted the seventh best defensive points per possession in isolation (0.76 PPP), the 6th best against roll men in the pick and roll (0.93 PPP) and the 12th best against ball handlers in the pick and roll (.79 PPP).

There is no doubt that the Clippers will try to do everything they can to exploit Paul’s skills in pick and roll as much as possible, while the Grizzlies will do everything in their power to neutralize him. While Paul’s shooting numbers never looked good against the Grizzlies this season (39.0% according to NBA.com’s new stats tool), the tape reveals he almost always found good looks for himself but was never really able to put them down. The Grizzlies often challenged Paul to shoot over the picks and it will be interesting to see if they continue to deploy that strategy in this series. Paul needs to find a way to score more efficiently, yes the Clippers were able to win 2 of the 3 regular season match-ups even with Paul shooting poorly, but they should not place any faith in their ability to replicate those results. The bottom line is Paul needs to have an absolutely monster series for the Clippers to win, against a defense that is well equipped to defend him. Unstoppable force meet immovable object, repeat 7 times if necessary.

As If We Knew

By Jared Dubin

Hosting a Game 1 in their own building for the first time in franchise history, the Memphis Grizzlies fell to the Los Angeles Clippers 99-91. There was really nothing they could have done about it; it was one of those Chris Paul games. After Tony Allen picked up two early fouls, CP3 went to work on Mike Conley and Gilbert Arenas and finished the first half with a double-double – 14 points and 10 assists. The Clippers’ offense slowed in the second, but a 12-point halftime deficit was too much for the Grizzlies to overcome.

Game 2 was an entirely different story. Allen and Marc Gasol stifled the Clippers’ pick-and-roll attack for much of the evening, holding Blake Griffin to only 8 field goal attempts. Rudy Gay went off on Caron Butler, Nick Young and whoever ever LA sent his way. Gay finished 12-for-17 from the field and 9-9 from the free throw line on his way to 36 points and also grabbed 7 rebounds and dished out 5 assists as Memphis rolled 101-85.

The Clippers grabbed control of the series once again as the series swung back to Los Angeles. In Game 3, DeAndre Jordan blocked 6 shots, Young hit 4 threes, Griffin had 7 dunks and Paul notched 12 assists and didn’t turn it over once. It was just barely enough to get them past Zach Randolph and the Grizz. Z-Bo put up 24 points on 16 shots and grabbed 13 rebounds. But Eric Bledsoe came off the bench and hounded Conley into 6 turnovers, and Memphis didn’t force enough to overcome a potent Clipper offense. LA prevailed at home 100-95.

Memphis seized momentum in the series by winning Games 4 and 5 by a combined 36 points, pounding the Clippers on the offensive boards. Gasol totaled 43 points, 25 rebounds (10 offensive) and 9 assists in the two games, dismantling Jordan from the low block. Allen had 6 steals combined in the two games as he hounded Paul into 9 total turnovers. Gay struggled in Game 4 and for the first half of Game 5, but poured in 16 points in the third quarter of Game 5 as the Grizzlies turned a 4-point halftime deficit into a 23-point lead heading into the 4th quarter.

With their backs against the wall in Game 6, the Clippers once again turned to CP3 with the game on the line. Tied with 14.3 seconds to go, Gasol missed the first of two free throws. Once he missed, Paul implored head coach Vinny Del Negro not to call a timeout after the second shot, which Gasol made. As the clock wound down past 10 seconds and approached 5, Paul dribbled above the top of the key and waited as Griffin approached with a screen on Allen’s left. Paul faked to his right, as if he’d take that screen from Griffin, but at the last second he crossed over and got right past Allen into the middle of the lane. Gasol tried to step up, but it was too late. Paul released a floater over Gasol’s outstretched arms that dropped into the basket just as the buzzer sounded. The series was headed back to Memphis for a decisive Game 7.

In a back-and-forth affair that featured 14 lead changes and 9 ties, Paul and Griffin combined for 63 of the Clippers’ 96 points, but it wasn’t enough to overcome Memphis’ more balanced offensive attack. The Grizz had 7 players reach double figures – 17 for Gasol, 16 for Gay, 14 for Randolph, 13 for O.J. Mayo, 12 for Conley, 10 for Allen and 10 for Gilbert Arenas – and prevailed at home 102-96. Neither team ever led by more than 7 points. Memphis’ swarming defense forced Young, Butler, Randy Foye and DeAndre Jordan into a combined 7-26 shooting and Clippers outside Paul and Griffin scored just 33 points. The Grizzles won the battle on the offensive boards and in the turnover department, and in the end came away victorious.

Grizzlies in 7

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com

Welp, that was… well… I mean… I don’t… How do you even?… You can’t really I guess. The english language doesn’t exactly have a word for whatever it was that happened to the Knicks today(Unless you count ZOMGSOMUCHLEBRONANNHILATIONMYEYESMYEYES as a word, which I do). Okay, let’s deal with the storyline that a lot of Knicks fans are sure to point their always shifting finger at: The refs cost or at least played a large role in the Heat’s victory. I’m willing to concede that point if all of the following questions are answered with a yes: Was it the refs that went for 23 points on 7 shots in the first half? Was it the refs that held the Knicks to 31 points through half, and 47 through three quarters? Was it the refs who ingeniously decided to front Carmelo Anthony totally disrupting the Knicks’ offensive rhythm? Was it the refs that then stubbornly refused to adjust the Knicks’ offense while the team dug itself a deeper and deeper hole. Was it the refs who tricked Tyson Chandler into committing a colossally dumb foul in the back court to pick up his fourth foul? Did the refs incept JR’s mind and make him even less aware then usual? Did the refs sneak into Tyson Chandler’s apartment and inject him with influenza? Was it the refs in the library with the candlestick?

Look the refs were not great; that initial assessment of a flagrant 2 on Chandler was laughable, the two flops by LeBron were pretty egregious, and the Melo technical fairly ridiculous. That being said the game was not decided by the refs. The Knicks loss was almost exclusively due to the total dominance of LeBron James, Tyson Chandler’s general malaise, and the Heat’s defense on Carmelo Anthony and the rest of the Knicks.

Offensively, the game started out fine for the Knicks. Yes, Carmelo Anthony was 0-7 in the first quarter but the Knicks were getting good movement off cuts when the heat brought pressure to Melo, and Melo was finding the open man. Unfortunately, while the Melo-Chandler pick and roll was yielding pretty nice results in terms of opportunity, Chandler was clearly not himself, unable to finish near the rim, dropping good passes, committing uncharacteristic turnovers, and running into waiting Heat defenders for offensive fouls. With a healthy Chandler it would’ve been interesting to see if the Knicks could’ve looked to exploit that particular play a little more. As it was though, the Knicks were actually fairing okay due to some surprisingly good shooting and all around play from Baron Davis, teamed with solid defense on the other end. Trailing 29-30 around midway through the 2nd, without any scoring provided so far from Melo, the Knicks had to like the position they were in. That’s when all hell broke lose. Miami unleashed a swarming active defense that forced the Knicks into more turnovers than made field goals, and propelled the Heat to a 32-4 run that would last well into the third quarter, and ultimately crush the Knicks hopes of stealing game 1.

LeBron James was completely and totally dominant, summoning all his immense god given talent, and I believe even activating his gamebreaker bar, torching the Knicks to the tune of 32 points on 14 shots, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 4 steals(and the Derek Fisher award for flop of the game, that’s gotta feel pretty nice). It cannot be emphasized enough, just how good, and how scary LeBron is when he has games like this. He was agressive, he was making his outside shots, and he was defending with a furry, wreaking havoc, and pushing Carmelo Anthony off his spots. When LeBron plays like this, the Heat will lose few if any games at all.

While LeBron was great, this victory did not come on his shoulders alone. A lot of credit needs to be given to Shane Battier and Erik Spolestra, for the defensive strategy they employed against Carmelo Anthony. Spolestra had Battier all out front Melo whenever he tried to establish position either in the post or even all the way out on the wing. This caused all kinds of frustration and confusion amongst the Knicks offense, especially the Knicks guards who threw every iteration of terrible pass Carmelo’s way en route to what can only be approximated as a “butt load” of turnovers. Inexplicably, the Knicks did nothing to strategically take advantage of the vulnerable position Battier put himself in. Even after halftime Woodson appeared to make little if any adjustment to help free Melo and create easy scoring opportunities.

Going forward the Knicks need to find a way to make the Heat pay for their all out front on Melo. There are a number of ways to do this, one of which would be to simply set pindown screens for Anthony, leaving the defender trailing behind. If the Heat start to switch, the right screener can be used to take advantage of the mismatch. I’d also like to see Melo in some post to post flex screens that might free him to post up closer to the rim. Another, really good option, as mentioned by Sebastian Pruiti would be to send a player to the high post while Melo tries to get open. The ball could then be entered into the high post, and Melo would have Battier on his back with an open lane to cut towards the hoop. Whatever solution the Knicks prefer, they need to employ it sooner rather than later or this series will be over very quickly.

Yes this was an ugly loss for the Knicks (and I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Shumpert crumpled to the floor in agony on a non-contact play) but this wasn’t a game they really ever had a shot at winning. Tyson Chandler was not even close to himself, and without a healthy Chandler, on the road in the playoffs, against Miami, the Knicks can’t expect a positive result. This is one loss on the road, that’s all it is, it only becomes more than that if the Knicks let it. Yes, there’s a lot the Knick’s can’t control in this series. They can’t magically restore Tyson Chandler to full strength, they can’t heal Iman Shumpert, no one can really tame JR Smith’s bonehead tendencies, and most importantly they can’t beat the Heat when they are at their best. If they want to, The Knicks can resign themselves to that fate and succumb to misfortune of their circumstance. But if they want to capture whatever chance they have left, they have to forget about the things beyond their reach, and focus on their own actions. They have to adjust their offensive game plan. They have to counter the fronting of Carmelo Anthony. They have to take much better care of the ball. Their doomsday fate isn’t reality just yet, but if the Knicks aren’t careful it will be soon.

Conceptual Architecture

By Conrad Kaczmarek

While this has been the regular season without reason (copyright: Matt Moore), the upcoming series between the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks is essentially guaranteed to continue that trend. It’s not secret that the Hawks are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league and are driven by one of the most inconsistent players in the league, Josh Smith. Atlanta saw injury take down their best player, Al Horford, yet managed to secure home court advantage in this series.

Boston, meanwhile, was written off by nearly everybody in the first half of the season. Nobody gave them a chance, and rightfully so – they looked like garbage. Somewhere along the line, however, Doc Rivers found the fountain of youth and pointed it out to Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. The bottom line is that while you have come to me for analysis about this series, I offer you information with very little predictive value. I don’t see how anybody could. You’ve got the Hawks who are relying on Josh Smith to not take 18-foot jumpers and you’ve got the Celtics who are asking Avery Bradley and Greg Stiemsma to play major roles.

Everybody talks about how Rajon Rondo (another incredibly inconsistent player) steps up with the spotlight on him, but is a first round game against the Hawks a big enough stage to trigger supernova-national televised Rondo? Throughout these playoffs there will definitely be better series. There are teams with better players and better matchups. However, Boston-Atlanta brings that inconsistency factor that no other series can match. I expect the landscape of this series to change several times and I still haven’t made a pick that I feel confident about. So that’s what I’ve got for you: the architecture of this series is built on an incredibly shaky foundation. And that could make it awesome.

The Death of Reason

By Jared Dubin

The last time the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks met, on April 11, Rajon Rondo recorded a triple double. It was Rondo’s sixth triple double of the season, and the NBA’s 14th (there would be three more the rest of the season). He finished the game with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 20 assists. It was just the ninth 10-10-20 game – with assists – in the NBA since the 1985-86 season. Rondo has four of them, each coming in the last two years.

Rondo will hang at least one triple double on the Hawks during this series, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the 20 assists plateau either. After all, he’s been quite successful against the Hawks this year. Since the All-Star break, Rajon is averaging 9.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 13.5 assists per game. He’s more in control of the Boston offense than ever before. Everything they do flows from how he manages the game. Whether he’s setting up Kevin Garnett and Brandon Bass for mid-range jumpers, finding Avery Bradley on cuts to the basket, spotting Ray Allen behind the 3-point line out of the corner of his eye or dropping it off to Paul Pierce for a three, a mid-range jumper or an isolation play, Rondo is, more than ever, the engine that drives the Boston attack.

You have to figure that the Hawks will try to make Rondo beat them with his own offense and cut off his passing lanes, which should lead to some higher point totals from the point guard than might be typical. Even with Atlanta playing him that way, he’ll always get his assist numbers since he has the ball so much – And because Boston’s biggest offensive threats depend on him so much to create open looks for them. Let’s be honest here; Garnett, Piece and Allen are still very, very good players, but none of them is especially good at creating their own shot off the dribble anymore. The Celtics run their sets to get them slight openings for shots and Rondo gets them the ball in the right place at the right time – and especially because of those friendly scorekeepers in Boston. Rondo also has a height and rebounding advantage on Hawks point guard Jeff Teague, giving him the edge he needs to grab some more boards than he normally might.

And that’s why Rondo may not just put up one triple double in this series, he could actually average one. Before you go and call me crazy, think back to the 2009 Playoffs, where Rondo put up averages of 16.8 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game over the 14 contests Boston played. Now think about how much more important Rondo is to the Celtics now than he was three seasons ago, and how much he’s grown as a player and as a floor leader. Yeah, it’s possible.

Chemical Reactions, Plate Tectonics & You

By Conrad Kaczmarek

I know this may shock you, but I’m about to write about Josh Smith again. Personally, I think J-Smoove is one of the most fascinating players in the league. He’s got an outrageous amount of talent and can be an absolute game-changer…sometimes. When he feels like attack the basket and playing lockdown defense, he’s amazing. When he gets lazy and shoots jumpers, he’s less amazing. I guess the Celtics will match him up with Kevin Garnett and that could be a problem. If Smith is really motivated and wants to take over, I don’t think KG has the athleticism anymore to keep up with him. It will be an incredibly interesting matchup of KG’s obvious defensive prowess put up against the overwhelming athleticism of Smith. It’s a matchup that I believe Josh Smith could win, but Garnett’s defense has been otherworldly lately. Keep your eye on that one.

On the flip side, I have no idea who the Hawks will play at center for their major minutes. With Al Horford still not expected back for the playoffs, you’ve got guys like Zaza Pachulia and Jason Collins as your next best option. Uh, really? That’s all you’ve got? Even since Doc Rivers switched Kevin Garnett over to the center position, he’s been awesome. So awesome that I believe he could ever matchup with the likes of Zaza Pachulia. Yeah, that awesome. The Hawks have a gaping hole at center like they have had all season. Now, however, a team will get up to 7 chances to exploit that hole. That’s going to be a big one as well.

As If We Knew

By Amin Vafa

Remember that one time when Boston played Atlanta in the first round? The year was 2008. Summer came early that year, and with it… you know, nevermind. Seriously though, that Boston-Atlanta series in 2008 was fantastic because it showcased the eventual champions having their hands full with below-.500 upstarts that had no business playing how they played. But it was AWESOME. The core parts of the rosters aren’t that different now (Pierce, Garnett, Rondo, Allen, JSmoove, Horford, Joe Johnson, Zaza). We know way more now about these two teams than we did in 2008 (the Big 3 were brand new in Boston and Atlanta hadn’t been to the postseason since we were all avoiding Sputnik’s purported wrath), but every time each of these teams hits the floor, we really don’t know what’s going to happen. Does Atlanta run plays? How are they playing better without Horford? What’s Boston’s tipping point from veteran to arthritis? Will Josh Smith shoot some ill-advised threes? Will Rondo have more than 23,607 assists in the series?

There are two major differences in this series that tip it in favor of the Celtics: Rondo and Horford. No Horford = No sanity. Everything in that front court is going to be Garnett & Smith & Ivan Johnson & Zaza Pachulia. Yikes! And Rondo. Ol’ Rajon. Yeah, if you’ve made it this far in the preview then you’ve heard enough about how he’s awesome.

Celtics in 5.

The 2012 NBA Playoffs have finally arrived, and in the Eastern Conference the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat still the cream of the crop, but injuries to Derrick Rose have created some space for the Boston Celtics to jump back up to pseudo-contention status. The Atlanta Hawks would love to join the Celtics  at that level, but with a head-to-head first round matchup the Hawks would have to take that title away from Boston. Do the New York Knicks have any chance at an upset? How lopsided are the matchups? Take a look at the chart I’ve embedded to compare playoff teams in various advanced stat categories. and be sure to read up on the short blurbs as well.

No. 1 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 8 Philadelphia 76ers

Tom Thibodeau has managed to push the Bulls to insane heights this season considering the lingering injuries to Derrick Rose, Richard Hamilton and Luol Deng (among others), while Doug Collins turned a fast start by Philadelphia into a near-disaster. In fact, you could argue it’s still a disaster. If Rose is injured things become a bit more interesting, but in general the Bulls are not the team you want to see in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Chicago has knocked off plenty of top teams this season, but the Sixers are like their wimpier younger brother. Both rely on defense to gain their edge over opponents and in this series the Bulls are going to come out with better defense. Why? The Sixers take a lot of long jumpshots (as I detailed a while back) and should struggle to score against the Bulls. The only reason I’m even extending this series to six games is because there is almost no way Derrick Rose will be a 100%.

Prediction: Bulls in 6

 

No. 2 Miami Heat vs. No. 7 New York Knicks

Analysis: If Tyson Chandler misses game one with flu-like symptoms, there are big problems for the Knicks. Chandler holds things together on offense and defense, and he’s amid one of the most efficient offensive seasons in the history of the league (as I detailed a while back), so if he’s anything less than 100% there is no amount of Carmelo Anthony isos that could make things right. Melo has been great since Mike Woodson refocused the offense around his offensive talents, but the Miami Heat have more than enough talented defenders to throw at Melo. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade aren’t going to let this series get away from them, so I expect a strong start that puts the Knicks on their their heels.

Prediction: Heat in 5

 

No. 3 Indiana Pacers vs. No. 6 Orlando Magic

Analysis: The Orlando Magic are done. Finished. Dwight Howard has sunk their battleship. There really isn’t much more to say, honestly. I really like Ryan Anderson, but when stories start coming out about the need for Jameer Nelson to raise his game to a new level, it’s over. Because I don’t think this will be much of a series, let’s close with a joke.

Q: Where does Stan Van Gundy hide his porn stash(e)? A: On his face. It works better as a verbal joke, I promise.

Prediction: Pacers In 4

 

No. 5 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 4 Boston Celtics

Analysis: Avery Bradley is the talk of the town and Ray Allen’s absence has been sort of brushed under the rug at this point, but the Celtics have certainly found a nice combination near the end of the season. Are they primed for a run to the NBA Finals? I don’t really think so, even if Kevin Garnett can handle 30 minutes per game at the center position. The main point is that the Celtics vets can keep things going for a series or two and the Hawks have failed to show this year is different than any other with this same core.

Prediction: Celtics In 5

The 2012 NBA Playoffs are finally here, but sometimes I wish we didn’t have to start with 16 teams. For all the excitement and action that the NCAA Tournament and NFL Playoffs bring to our lives with single-serving, sudden-death games that could pivot on any number of unlikely events , the most attractive feature of the NBA Playoffs (to me) is the stability that the best-four-of-seven format provides. The postseason in professional basketball is a meritocracy, plain and simple. The best teams of the regular season (health permitting) almost always advance out of the first round and push towards the championship, so the best players tend to play on the biggest stages and for the highest stakes. That’s exactly how I like it.

Unfortunately, this dynamic usually turns the matchups on the outside of the bracket — 1 vs. 8 and 2 vs. 7 — into pro forma events that represent more of a reward to the highest seeds than anything else. In any case, I’ve set up a nice little graph of various advanced stats that make it easy to compare strengths and weaknesses of competing teams set for head-to-head matchups. I also decided to compile a checklist that addresses which team has the edge in each area and paired it with short blurbs of analysis and my prediction for the series.

No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Utah Jazz

Analysis: I’ve watched about 20 Jazz games very closely this season, and about 15 more at a #leaguepassalert level. I’m hardly an expert, but my viewing experience has spanned from the early-season concerns about Tyrone Corbin’s sub-optimal rotations (the Raja Bell and Josh Howard experience) to the Paul Millsap at SF experiments down the stretch. That last part is key, by the way.

Sure the Houston Rockets pooped the bed to make room for the Jazz in the playoff bracket, but the secret behind Utah’s recent success has been a particular five-man unit of Devin Harris, Gordon Hayward, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors and Al Jefferson. According to NBA.com/Stats, over the last 15 Utah games — in which this group played during 7 games and logged 65 minutes on the floor — the quintet posted an offensive efficiency of 117.5 (pts/100 possessions) a defensive efficiency of 80.4 (pts/100 possessions), which is good for a +37.1 net efficiency mark! That’s not just good, it’s outlandish.

There’s only one problem for the Jazz: they are playing the Spurs. Over that same 15 game period, the Spurs rested plenty of players along the way and still managed to post a +15.0 net efficiency as a team. The entire Jazz squad during that stretch with the special five-man group? +2.5 net efficiency. The disparities are even more stark over the course of the season. In other words, anything Utah can do, San Antonio can do better. The chase for the 8th seed was fun, but don’t buy in to any upset storyline for this series. San Antonio is just too good at basketball.

Matt Moore and Graydon Gordian have been known to use the phrase “Gentleman’s Sweep” to describe the outcome in a lopsided playoff series, and I think works well in this case. For those who don’t know, a Gentleman’s Sweep” is one where “a team wins comfortably but still graciously allows its opponent to win one game. The phrase fits perfectly here if Utah prime quintet gets big minutes and takes off during one of their home games.

Prediction: Spurs In 5 (Gentleman’s Sweep)

No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Denver Nuggets

Analysis: The Denver Nuggets are the kings of high-pace offense and have been among the best in the NBA in terms of fast break points, percentage of shots taken at the rim, true shooting percentage and offensive efficiency for most of the season. However, they have been battling injuries for much of the second half of the season and this matchup makes me feel like Nuggets GM Masai Ujiri would love to borrow Nene for a week. Can Kenneth Faried, JaVale McGee, Kosta Koufos and Timofey Mozgov hold up against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol? I have my doubts. Kobe may not be healthy, but it’s only really going to hurt the Lakers if he insists on being the star of the show. Running offense through the bigs will allow LA to control the pace, and their strong rebounding numbers should help and muzzle Denver’s potent transition attack as well.  If Danilo Gallinari can exploit the absence of Metta World Peace and Ty Lawson can dominate Ramon Sessions, I could see an upset. However, I think the Lakers will run things through the bigs and wear down Denver over time.

Prediction: Lakers In 7

No. 2 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 7 Dallas Mavericks

Analysis: The Thunder are hungry, and the Mavs have played most of the season like they are anything but, so this one feels pretty easy to me. No doubt Dirk Nowitzki will dazzle at times, but it’s important to remember how soundly Serge Ibaka defended Dirk last year in the playoffs (even if Nowitzki still hit the shots). James Harden was cleared by doctors to play earlier in the week, so I’m assuming he will be ready to go when the series starts. No way OKC gets bounced in the first round by an underwhelming Dallas team. Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka are leaps and bounds better than what the Mavs can counter with in this matchup.

Prediction: Thunder In 5

No. 4 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Clippers

Analysis: The Memphis Grizzlies have home court advantage in an NBA Playoff series for the first time in franchise history, and while I know that’s a big deal it’s hard to get over the fact that the Grizz are a grindy team that still feels like an overachiever from the regular season. Their size will be an asset in the series, but the Clippers shouldn’t be dismissed just because Memphis surged in the second half of the season. LA claimed a 2-1 regular season series victory in head-to-head play and Blake Griffin played particularly well in both wins, so his production will be something to key on in the series. I already feel dumb for trusting a team coached by Vinny Del Negro to pull out a road win or two in a playoff series, but I feel like the Grizzlies have been overrated down the stretch while the Clippers are still easily on their level.

Prediction: Clippers In 7

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com