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Tag Archive - 2010 NBA Playoffs

NBA Playoffs, Suns-Blazers Game 2: In Phoenix, No One Can Hear You Scream

For the Suns, it’s that simple: all they have to do is play the same way they’ve been playing over the last two months, and they’ll win the series. As the better team (or in this case, the healthier team), they have the luxury of showing up when and where they want to as long as they can do it four times. Be it in Portland or in Phoenix, the Suns will have the advantage whenever they hit the floor, particularly now that Nicolas Batum (strained shoulder) can be counted among the wounded. The Blazers had their card and they played it. Now it’s the Suns’ turn, and their offense is more reliable (than the Blazers’ without Roy et al), their pace is more coercive, and their healthy players more talented.

If I may, the Blazers are Ridley Scott’s Alien. The film is predicated on two things: the build-up of suspense through an extension of the ordinary and the grand reveal of the titular creature. A surprising amount of the film’s running time is designated to portraying the characters going through seemingly ordinary sequences of action, which naturally makes the audience uneasy because they’re (1) aware that they’re watching a movie in which something interesting is supposed to be happening and (2) cognizant of the fact that the damn movie is called Alien, yet there have yet to be any aliens. The injury-plagued Blazers are very much the same, in that even the team’s most talented players are seemingly ordinary. Andre Miller is hardly perceived as an elite point guard, despite the fact that he’s been incredibly effective in Brandon Roy’s stead. LaMarcus Aldridge is considered a solid four, but lacking in some fundamental element of superstardom and thus inferior. Marcus Camby is a nice shot-blocker, but he’s been deemed well into his decline and though he’s a difference-maker, he’s hardly considered a defensive anchor. Nicolas Batum, Martell Webster, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez — all fine role players, but nothing more.

This is all, of course, before a little alien with Nate McMillan’s face comes bursting through your chest at the dinner table and ruins a perfectly good time.

It’s powerful and it’s shaking, largely because the status quo as it were only acted as a mechanism for the reveal to manifest itself. Miller wants you to think that he’s incapable of being a force, so he can can blow by you on his way to the rim by using the quickest slow (or is it slowest quick?) first step in the league. Aldridge wants you to think that he’s incapable of providing star-level offensive production as a primary option, so he can toss turnaround jumpers over your head from the low block, drop 20+, and call it a day. Camby will lurk behind on the break to rock a weak layup attempt, or emerge from the darkness to contest an otherwise open look.

The only problem is that once everything is in full view, the power of the reveal is gone. Portland may have caught Phoenix by surprise in game one, but now that the Suns know the secret, the result will never be the same again. That initial reaction can never be quite replicated, regardless of how expertly the Blazers execute.

The Suns, on the other hand, are more akin to James Cameron’s Aliens: the tension is built by putting highly combustible elements (trigger-happy marines, a literally explosive setting, and an entire alien species) in close proximity, and watching the sparks fly. It’s made with what seems to be an easily replicable formula, yet it stands above. The most important component of Aliens here, though, is what separates it from the first installment: there is no mystery. Everyone knows exactly what Phoenix wants to do. That doesn’t stop them from being effective or their performances from being repeatable, especially when they rebound and defend as well as they did last night. The Suns are just a different kind of product than the Blazers, and their success has little to do with what you don’t expect from them and more about what you do. If Phoenix is as persuasive as they’re capable of being — and as they were last night in stomping Portland 119-90 — then Portland will end up running with them. That’s not a good thing. I don’t buy the argument that the Blazers can play at the Suns’ pace over the course of the series. Not without Brandon Roy, and if Nicolas Batum misses any time as well (he considered himself 50-50 for Game 3), that certainly doesn’t help.

It’s not that the Blazers can’t run at all or even that they’re not effective in doing so. They’re just not as effective as the Suns, who practice this style and running their lanes and making the right passes in transition all year long. ‘Seven Seconds of Less’ may not rule the day, but just look at how quickly Phoenix was triggering the break last night. The Suns were down the court and set along the perimeter often before the Blazers’ defenders could even make their way into the broadcast view.

I’m not saying that Portland won’t win another game. They very well could. But the way this team operates is just too predictable and preventable. The Suns shift Grant Hill on to Andre Miller, and ‘Dre is held to just 12 points on 4-of-11 shooting and three assists, compared to 31 points on 10-of-17 shooting with eight assists in Game 1. Phoenix threw double teams at LaMarcus Aldridge to force the ball out of his hands, and he finished with 11 points on 3-of-8 shooting after dropping 22 in Game 1. I’m sure Nate McMillan will do a great job of making some adjustments for Game 3, and change up where Miller and Aldridge are getting the ball, where and when the offense should attack, etc. Unfortunately none of that will change the fact that the power and impact of their initial reveal is gone. The Suns may still be affected when the Blazer offense figures out new ways to showcase the same things, but they’ll be waiting for it. They’ll be anticipating it. They’ll stay frosty, clinch their fists, and sense it coming. The magic may still be there, but the mystery is gone.

NBA Playoffs: (3) Phoenix Suns vs. (6) Portland Trailblazers – Any Camel Chiropractors in the House?

How good do you think the Phoenix Suns are? If you said anything less than really, really damn good, go back to sentence one and try again. This team has the goods, is riding a hell of a wave, and could benefit most from the tremendous parity in the Western Conference. The Roy-less Blazers might be the most favorable matchup in the West right now for just about any team, and should Phoenix take care of business quickly as I expect them to, they’ll have plenty of time to rest up for their tough second round opposition (either Dallas or San Antonio, the latter of which Phoenix fears more than the former).

But do you know what this series really is? It’s an extension of the divine will that seeks to crush the Blazers. Supernatural forces of some kind — basketball gods, voodoo magic, David Bowie in the Labyrinth — have tripped the Blazers every step of the way, and this series is really no different. It’s not enough that Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla were Tonya Hardinged by ghosts with crowbars, that a hex was cast on Portland’s wings, or that someone out there has a sick sense of humor and a Brandon Roy voodoo doll. On top of all of that, the Blazers drew one of the hottest teams in the league that happens to be their stylistic counter. This is a real series with a healthy Roy, but remove Brandon from the lineup (and shift Portland’s wings up the depth chart accordingly) and you’re looking at a team that doesn’t have much of a chance to keep up with the Suns on offense. The Blazers are an efficient offensive club, but just how efficiently can their meticulous, half-court look be without Roy to facilitate?

The Blazers were still very impressive after Roy went down, but this feels like one injury too many. The Suns’ reserves have been incredibly effective this season, and their ability to maintain a high intensity level has been crucial to Phoenix’s success. Maybe the same could have been said at the beginning of the season regarding Portland, but as every possible break went the other way, the Blazers’ impressive preseason depth was systematically erased. Adding Marcus Camby really, really helps, but Phoenix is an odd matchup for him; Amar’e Stoudemire is a tough cover when he’s playing like a basketball player, but right now he’s more of a one-man revolution. Who does Camby really cover in this series? Putting him out on the perimeter defending a guy like Channing Frye seems like a waste, and the Suns’ ball movement and ability to hit open shooters on the perimeter would seem to help negate Marcus’ defensive impact.

It may seem like cheap analysis, but Phoenix is just a better team. They’re loaded with more talent than a lot of people realize, and to see this team operate over the last few weeks has been a rather distinct pleasure. With Robin Lopez in the mix, you’re looking at possibly the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals. Without him, you’re still looking at one of the most dynamic teams in the conference, and they’re better at defense than they let on. This is going to be a fun playoff run for Phoenix, and as much as I hate to dismiss the Blazers, this first round is only the beginning.

The Suns aren’t going to run the Blazers off the floor, because the Blazers are simply too good and too resilient. It’d be a disservice to them to claim that Phoenix was going to win every game in a walk, or that this series wasn’t going to be competitive. That said, I’d expect this thing to be over rather quickly, and regardless of whether or not the final margin is within 10 points, playoff wins are playoff wins. I’ll take the Suns in five, mostly because their offense will flow seamlessly against the Blazers’ D while the Blazers will struggle a bit without Roy, and because Phoenix’s criminally underrated bench will blow Portland’s out of the water.

NBA Playoffs: (4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Miami Heat – The Unknown (Disclaimer: This Is Not an M. Night Shyamalan movie)

The Celtics are a riddle wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a conundrum wrapped in a knee brace.

No one thinks this team has a shot at making the Finals — and rightfully so. Personally, I would be shocked if Boston even made the Eastern Conference Finals. They’re old. They’re slow. They’re inconsistent. They’re cavalier. (And, not in an amazing, LeBron Jamesian way or even a crazy, fantastical Delonte West way either). Most importantly, they simply have not been playing good basketball for the last two-thirds of the season. (They’re a Chicago Bulls-like 27-27 during their past 54 games.)

We know all this.

Still, they are better than most people think. And it’s almost entirely because of the defense. You just can’t get a 5th ranked defense by accident. The schemes, the commitment and — yes, even in 2010 — the personnel got it done this year. Kevin Pelton rightly points out that KG can still play some defense. He may overstate the case a little, and few people have made more jokes about KG’s gimpy knee than I have, but the reports of The Kid’s death have been greatly exaggerated. You look at photos like this and think back to the infamous Saturday afternoon when he allowed Al Harrington to look like Bernard King in MSG, and it’s easy to dismiss all the good stuff Garnett does out there even while less fleet-of-foot than ever. This isn’t 2004, sure, but particularly with Kendrick Perkins standing next to him, KG can anchor very good defense.

And he has done exactly that this year.

Outside of Rondo for the first 45 minutes and Pierce for the last 3, there isn’t much about Boston’s offense that should terrify anyone. Ray Allen is finally shooting like Ray Allen again (40.3% from three since the All-Star Break compared to 33.8% prior) and KG, even on one leg, can still make the mid-range jumper, but, if you’re Miami — especially if you’re Miami — or any other team, figuring out how to stop the Celtics isn’t the biggest hurdle to exposing Boston’s geriatric mediocrity.

The challenge is figuring out how to score on them. And that’s not something Miami does particularly well. (They’re 19th in offensive rating and 15th in effective field goal percentage). Flash is Flash, and he’s as much of a rock as anyone we have in this league (and I’d still argue that he is underrated), so he’ll obviously get his. But the key for Miami won’t be hoping Dwyane pours in a few 43-point nights and jumps on the scorer’s table and tells his fans whose house it is. Whether or not the Heat can advance depends more on consistent production from everyone else. They need points from the guys Charles Barkley calls “a bunch of Tito Jacksons.”

Can Beasley, aka the East Coast Lamar Odom Sans All the Versatility, show up to play two games in a row? Can JO do more than just protect the paint? Will Carlos Arroyo keep playing the point well enough to let Wade play off the ball? Will Udonis get the minutes he deserves? Will Q and Chalmers hit their open threes? Can Dorell Wright finally translate his scoring ability into enough a playoff success to actually make me remember whether or not his name has two Rs or two Ls without fact-checking? (/googles dorrell wright)

I know that asking a bunch of obvious questions is a lame way to try to provide insight into this series, but I honestly have no idea if any of those things will happen. I don’t think anyone does, frankly. Not Eric Spoelstra. Not Pat Riley. Definitely not Dwyane Wade. Anyone who tells you different is either a liar or someone who somehow got a hold of the Gray’s Sports Almanac Biff brought back from the future.

But there are a few things we do know: (1) The Heat will play high-level defense, (2) The Celtics will play high-level defense, (3) Boston will execute well enough late in games and get enough big buckets out of Pierce, Rondo, Ray and maybe even KG to grab a win or two, (4) Dwyane Wade’s parents are not strong spellers.

The only thing left that we’re really not sure about is whether or not the Heat, who have won 9 of their last 10 games and an ungodly 18 of their last 22, will score enough to ensure that that late-season run continues.

I would love to see it happen.

But I doubt it does.

Boston in 6

NBA Playoffs Preview: 5) Utah Jazz Vs. 4) Denver Nuggets (The Trailer Looks Great)

Let me preface this by saying I’m a sucker for a good trailer.

If you want me to get excited about an upcoming movie release and you want my money to support said movie then you’re probably going to need to have produced a gripping trailer when you’re advertising this cinematic event.

It doesn’t even really need to be THAT good of a movie when it comes out. All you need to do is get me in the mood to see it and I’ll have a hard time finding ultimate failure in a movie. The last time I can remember being psyched by a quality trailer and just horrified by the finished product of a movie was with Righteous Kill. That was just an atrocious movie. The script was bad. The acting was bad. In fact, Robert De Niro and Al Pacino were so bad in the movie that I walked away thinking, “You know – 50 Cent is NOT that bad of an actor.”

The trailer doesn’t even have to be that gripping now that I think about it. It just needs a nice buildup before you unleash a certain song in the trailer that I’ve subconsciously wanted to listen to. With Righteous Kill, they brought me in with Please To Meet You by The Stones. With Brooklyn’s Finest, they brought me in with Run This Town by Jay-Z and Rihanna.

And with The Departed two songs drew me in – Gimme Shelter by the Stones and Shipping Up To Boston by Dropkick Murphys. Perhaps the two-song whammy is the reason I could never find that much fault with this movie. When I go back and watch it, it’s not terribly good. The accents are… interesting. The acting by Jack Nicholson is like watching Vince Carter in his final days of being a Toronto Raptor. And some of the dialogue is just perplexing. However, I still enjoy it thoroughly because of the music involved and my self-brainwashing going into the movie.

This is kind of how I feel about this Nuggets-Jazz series. I’m sold on the soundtrack. The dulcet tones of Chauncey Billups and Deron Williams trying to Bobby Fisher each other are enough. But you’ve also got the beautiful dance number of Carmelo Anthony’s offensive game playing over the inconsistency of his past playoff performances. I can get swept away in the cacophonous beats of JR Smith, Kenyon Martin, and Carlos Boozer all trying to endear their way of existing to us.

I mean this is just a murderer’s row of personalities, subplots and issues that will be playing on a consistent loop throughout the entire series. Regardless of how it plays out, I know that I’m sold on it. There could be four, five, six or seven atrocious games and I’ll be locked in based on the most superficial aspects of this series.

When you look at these two teams, they’re almost identical. They’re both very good offensive teams. They shoot the ball well. They get to the free throw line. They’re pretty decent defensively while challenging shots and forcing misses at almost the same rate of efficiency.

In fact, I don’t know that you could have a more evenly matched first round opponent in this year’s playoffs. So what does it come down to?

Simplicity.

What is the simplest way for each team to win games?

Here’s what we know about the Utah Jazz. They score the hell out of the ball and do so by getting a nice balance of inside-out scoring. They’re one of the top teams in the league in terms of scoring around the basket (63.5%, Fifth in the NBA) with the highest percentage (63.7%) of baskets around the basket coming from assists. They also shoot the ball very well from the outside. They knock down jumpers from 16-23 feet very well (40.7%, Sixth in the NBA) with the highest assist rate for these shots (77.2%, seven percent more than second place) to go with the seventh highest effective field goal percentage from three (54.6%).

(Thank you HoopData for the stats)

All of this is obviously because of Deron Williams. They can get into the heart of the defense whenever they need to. A lot of this has to do with dribble penetration that leads to players cutting towards the basket for easy scores. Deron Williams draws in the interior defense like a magnet. If the defense is able to create a wall and account for the cutters, they often will leave the perimeter shooters locked, loaded and without the safety on.

And this is the double-edged sword of how you defend the Jazz, especially when Deron Williams is on the court. You have to give in somewhere. If you’re allowing points inside, you’re probably also allowing free throw attempts and three-point plays due to late rotations and dumb fouls inside. But if you pack in the paint, you’re leaving deadly and timely outside shooters in the area that counts for the most points. So what do you do?

You have to form a pocket on defense. They’re least efficient from the middle of the floor. Put them in the 10 to 15-foot range and you’ve got your best chance of stopping them. There are no Rip Hamiltons on this team and Jeff Hornacek certainly isn’t walking through that door. You need to pack in the middle then swarm the perimeter in a furious effort of defensive rotations. The trick is keeping those interior guys in place and flanking the passing options. Make them run enough clock and the Jazz perimeter guys will have to pull up off the dribble for “bad” mid-range jumpers. It’s actually one of the simplest ways to try to bait a team into taking bad shots but it does take smart and disciplined defense.

With Denver, it’s sort of the same thing. They finish well inside and they shoot well from three. You want to force them into the mid-range area and pray that Carmelo Anthony isn’t the one taking those shots. They need to have a very simple game plan on offense. Pick-and-roll the Jazz to death with Chauncey Billups and make the Utah big men play on the perimeter. If they struggle to show on the screen, Chauncey can pull the jumper or drive into the paint. If the defense collapses, he can have Arron Afflalo and JR Smith in the corners, ready to knock in three-pointers from their hot spots.

The Nuggets will also need to get out in transition and try to knock down threes in these situations. The key will be finding JR Smith on the break and get him the ball in a position to rise and fire. JR Smith shot just 34% from three this season, which seems like a very manageable rate even when you factor in the quantity in which he shot them. But in transition, his percentage increased to 44% from three. Also, Carmelo Anthony is extremely efficient scoring on the break. His field goal percentage of 46% jumps up to 62% in transition. You can run with this team, especially when Ty Lawson is coming in for a change of pace, at a very efficient clip.

It sounds so simple for both teams. Get the ball into the areas you score with the highest efficiency. Push the tempo if you’re the Nuggets. Live off of dribble penetration and the chaos it creates if you’re the Jazz.

Don’t Forget To Pray For Health

This is where the series will ultimately be won – in the training room.

The Nuggets need Kenyon Martin to be healthy. When he’s healthy, he changes the game for opposing big men. Most players can’t handle the bulk and the versatility of the Boozer-Millsap combo inside. He’s always been able to neutralize what Carlos Boozer does offensively. He defends and challenges shots well while not letting Boozer live at the free throw line. While Millsap has been able to score at a highly efficient percentage of 63% in his career against K-Mart, Martin has still been able to match him point for point and rebound for rebound.

Kenyon Martin is a neutralizer inside defensively and that’s exactly what the Nuggets need to contain the power forward combination the Jazz throw at opponents.

In a similar way, this is what the Jazz need from Andrei Kirilenko. He’s the perfect defender for Carmelo Anthony. He’s long enough to bother jumpers. He’s agile enough to absorb the contact and still be able to recover when Carmelo makes his moves inside. He makes Melo work for his points and doesn’t really allow him to go crazy. Carmelo still gets his numbers but it’s rare that he goes NOVA against the Russian. In 19 career matchups, Carmelo Anthony has only scored 30 or more points five times against Kirilenko.

If Andrei Kirilenko can play then the Jazz have the man that can contain Anthony and that wins a huge battle for them. You’re then allowed to put Deron Williams up against Chauncey Billups one-on-one and when that happens I like Deron’s chances of being the better player. Then all you have to ask for is Wesley Matthews to be a pest for JR Smith and try to prevent him from getting in a rhythm from deep.

But again, this is all IF Kenyon and Kirilenko can be healthy.

Series Prediction
This may be the most fun series we see throughout the entire first round. Both teams like to push it like Salt ‘N’ Pepa. Both teams like to ramp up the offense. And both teams can play good enough defense to make the other team earn their points. There is no real throwaway aspect in this series. It’s just going to be seven very competitive games between two teams that are always hard to fully buy into. And the prize at the other end of the first round is a second round showdown with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Normally in these evenly matched 4-5 series I take the home team. I assume the house will be protected regardless and that the series will be seven straight wins by the home team. And when the team with home court advantage has the best player in the series (Carmelo Anthony) that seems to be even more of a no-brainer. However, I don’t trust the health situation of Kenyon Martin and I certainly don’t trust the depth of the big man rotation Denver employs. After Nene (who should dominate Mehemt Okur in every way) the Nuggets are relying on Chris Andersen and Johan Petro. Those are components of a great movie about a cross-country trip but they don’t exactly make me think, “Those are two guys who can contain the Boozer-Millsap hybrid.”

Then we get to the ultimate X-factor for me in this series – Deron Williams. We’ve seen some special things from Deron Williams over the past two years as he makes his case for best point guard in the NBA. This is his chance to truly prove he’s a cut above the rest. By getting the better of Chauncey Billups in a series in which he’s scheduled to play more road games than home he can truly shine and show the nearly perfect weapon he is. I tend to gravitate towards the best point guard of the series when two teams are this even.

With that I’ve got to take the Jazz to go the distance in this series. They’re least likely to knock off the Lakers in round two but that’s not their concern right now. Their concern is keeping their offensive attack simple and to execute it properly.

Regardless of how the series plays out, the trailer is pretty kick-ass.

Jazz Win in Seven