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Tag Archive - Carl Landry

NBA HD: Change of Scenery, Change of Taste

We hear it all the time: “Player X needs a change of scenery.”

Typically, this statement is made when a player performs beneath his potential as a result of his constrictive environment.  It could be that his skill set is unfit for the team’s style or that the organization has collapsed into rebuilding mode while an innocent veteran loiters in the background.  Whatever the particular circumstances may be, the idea is that the player would benefit from a contextual makeover.

The question is: when the scenery does change, does the player change as well?

A trade provides a dream scenario for us NBA pseudo-scientists, a real life experiment in the form of a jersey swap.  Maybe the player had a hidden jump shot waiting to be unlocked by a new team.  Perhaps his past surroundings forced a player into a suboptimal shot distribution.  With that in mind, today’s post looks at how five player’s shot selection were affected after being traded during the 2009-10 season.

To illustrate a player’s shot distribution, I use spider charts to display Hoopdata’s shot location data.  Each player’s shot selection is separated into five zones: at rim (layups, dunks, and tip-ins), short (shots within 10 feet excluding at rim shots), mid (10-15 feet), long twos (16-23 feet), and 3-point shots.  The cited percentage is the percentage of a player’s shots within that zone, not the field goal percentage.

The following chart illustrates the shot selection change of the biggest name traded to a contender this year: Antawn Jamison.

Jamison was acquired from the Wizards to spread the floor and provide the Cavaliers with a veteran All-Star who can knock down threes.  Funny thing is, he’s played closer to the basket than he has in years.  As you can see in the spider graph, the former Tar Heel has taken more shots at the basket alongside LeBron James in Cleveland and he has experienced a slight uptick in field goal percentage from there as well.  Playing next to LeBron, who is the size of Karl Malone but the distributing power of John Stockton, has it’s benefits.  Jamison was assisted on 76.3 percent of his makes at the rim which ranks as one of the highest rates in the league for a regular (only Anthony Tolliver was set up more).  Over on the perimeter, he’s still taking threes and long twos about as often as he did in Washington so he’s still bringing those goods to the table.  What he’s lacked in the mid-range, he’s picked up around the rack.

Interestingly enough, Jamison’s offensive efficiency has plummeted to levels he hasn’t seen since 2000-01.   Why? Perhaps this is nothing more than a harmless fluke but Jamison has shot a putrid 50.6 percent from the free throw line, a far cry from his 72.8 percent career mark.  Luckily, he shot better from the line than Shaq has in Cleveland. Otherwise, his effective field goal percentage, which strictly looks at how he shoots from the floor, has risen in Cleveland to .525 from .491 as a Wizard, so the rest of his shooting is still in tact.

Let’s switch gears for a bit and take a look at a rookie forward who switched jerseys this year: Jordan Hill.

Plucked from the Rockets rookie farm that is Manhattan, Jordan Hill joined the Rockets along with Jared Jeffries and Kevin Martin as part of a blockbuster midseason trade.  In Houston, the former ninth pick enjoyed a longer leash, getting 16.2 minutes per game after barely averaging 10 minutes in New York.

He may have shot the ball like a stretch four in New York given how many long twos he took, but he’s anything but that as a Rocket.  The former Arizona Wildcat has cut out most of the long two portion of his shot selection, going from 42.4 percent of all shots down to just 18.3 percent.  Perhaps the statistically-inclined Houston front office recognized how inefficiently Hill made an inefficient shot; he made just 33.3 percent of his 16-23 footers as a Knick.

He played closer to the rim on offense in Houston and his efficiency soared as a result (his Offensive Rating jumped from 102 to 115) and with it, he posted an Offensive Rebounding Rate nearly twice the average for a forward.  If Knicks fans treated Hill like a big bust, the Rockets saw a big ready to bust out.

As Jordan Hill experienced a bit of a makeover in Houston, Kevin Martin’s shot selection has been more of the same.

Martin received the same amount of run in Houston (35.1 MPG vs. 35.8 MPG), shouldered comparable offensive responsibility (25.31 USG% vs. 25.32 USG%), and his shot palette remained nearly unchanged.  He’s been slightly more aggressive with the ball, attacking the basket more frequently.  As a result, he’s generating more shooting fouls in Houston which is just about a lock for two points every trip.  Martin was a 92.4 percent free throw shooter which boosted his True Shooting Percentage from 53.5 to 58.6.  He may not be as successful knocking down 3-pointers in Houston (just 31 percent) but with more shots from the charity stripe, he’s been more efficient.

Normally, we would expect a Houston scorer to shy away from long twos but Kevin has upped dosage just inside the 3-point line while shooting a robust 45.6 FG%.   He likely won’t maintain that level of success from there but the Rockets have to love having a dynamic scorer back in the fold.

Next, we’ll take a look at another scorer who rejuvenated his status as among the game’s better shooting guards: John Salmons.

He’s not a 3-point specialist that’s for sure.  While John Salmons represented the Chicago Bulls’ main, and often times lone, 3-point threat, he has exhibited a much more diversified appetite on the offensive end.  Like Kevin Martin, Salmons has been as deadly from 16-23 feet as anyone, shooting 46.1 percent and converting just as many long twos as he did in Chicago earlier this year in 37 fewer attempts.

Salmon’s assisted percentage (percentage of makes that were assisted on) has dipped to 44.9 percent from 61.3 percent in Chicago, indicating he’s less of a spot up shooter these days.

In addition to an incrase in long twos, Salmons has attacked the basket more, getting 4.2 shots per game which makes up for 28.3 percent of his shot repertoire.  If anything, Bucks GM John Hammond has acquired the Sacramento Kings version of John Salmons and not the watered down Bulls one.

Speaking of Sacramento, let’s take a look at their newest cog, Carl Landry, who was acquired in the Kevin Martin blockbuster.

After seeing his minutes rise gradually from 16.9 mpg in 2007-08 to 21.2 in 2008-09 and 27.2 mpg in the first half of the season in Houston, Carl Landry has finally reached the status of a full-time player. Averaging 37.5 minutes in Sacramento, Landry has morphed into a more perimeter-oriented post player as opposed to a banger, getting over 30 percent of his offense off of isolation or spot ups according to Synergy (these two play types only made up for 14.8 percent of his repertoire in Houston.)

Consider that the Purdue alum has about doubled his taste for long twos (18.1 percent to 35.4 percent) and as a result, he has taken less layups in his purple garb.  Whereas Jordan Hill benefitted from curtailing his penchant for long twos, Landry has displayed a superb 44.0 percent conversion rate in the zone he used sparingly in Houston. Surely, one would rather Landry shoot more at the rim where he’s a career 70 percent shooter than stroking it from the mid-range even if he’s shooting about average from there.

Has he suffered in other areas because of his newfound perimeter orientation? His rebounding certainly has.  His Offensive Rebounding Rate has plummeted from 15.5 percent in his rookie season down to just 7.1 percent in Sacramento.  To be sure, today’s Carl Landry is a different player than the high-energy man off the bench that Houston fans grew to love. But his evolution into a more conservative full-time player may have been inevitable.  Instead of burning all his energy in shorts spurts, Landry has to cut back his aggressiveness now that he plays almost 40 minutes night in and night out.

Of course, we’d like more than a 25 game sample to make more concrete conclusions about each player’s shot selection in their new outfits but in certain cases, there’s more than just shot selection differences to suggest that their respective games have changed.  There’s still a high degree of random variation when we consider any player’s statistics over a two month span so it’s best to reserve complete judgment about the player.

Curious about the spider charts for Caron Butler, Flip Murray, Tyrus Thomas, Marcus Camby, Steve Blake, and Al Thornton? Well you’re in luck.  Click.

TRADE DEADLINE: Where Donnie Walsh Being Possessed By Isiah Thomas Happens

The Houston Rockets, Sacramento Kings and New York Knicks have agreed to terms that will expand the Houston-Sacramento deal into a three-way trade that lands Tracy McGrady with the Knicks, according to NBA front-office sources.

The Knicks will acquire McGrady and Sergio Rodriguez from Sacramento, sources said.

The Rockets get Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill and Jared Jeffries from New York and will have the right to swap first-round picks with New York in 2011 as well as take on New York’s 2012 first-round pick.

Sacramento obtains Houston’s Carl Landry and Joey Dorsey and New York’s Larry Hughes.

via Tracy McGrady traded to New York Knicks in 3-team deal, sources say – ESPN.

Let’s just be clear in what just happened here.

The Knicks gave up:

  • Jared Jeffries, a versatile defender that’s actually played really well this year.
  • Jordan Hill, who has developed really well, has killer upside, and is a legit scoring big, which they’re going to need once Harrington and Lee are gone in six months.
  • The expiring corpse of Larry Hughes
  • Their control for their first round pick in 2011 NOT to be swapped to a perennial playoff team that just acquired cap space and Kevin Martin.
  • Their 2012 first round pick, meaning they could not be picking in the top 15 for the next 3 YEARS.

And in return, they got:

  • An over-30 forward who has had injury problems every year for the past five years, and his expiring contract which will end up saving them a grand total of $9 million dollars.

THE POWER OF CHRIST COMPELS YOU!

Seriously? This just happened?

What on EARTH are they going to offer LeBron/Wade/Bosh/Amar’e this summer? “Hey, come on by! You get to play with Sergio Rodriguez! Eddie House is in the corner, smokin’ a pipe! Chill out! Galinari’s going to make his famous pesto chicken!”

THIS is the master plan? To leverage any hope of the future to try and buy your way out of purgatory? This isn’t Mario Bros. You can’t just skip a level, I don’t care how much money you have or what market you play in.

This is an abject disaster.

The Kings’ side of this gets better and better. They just cleared out enough space to build a new kitchen downstairs AND remodel Chrissy’s room with that walk-in closet she’s always wanted. They managed to hold on to Kenny Thomas (woof), so they save that money and pick up Hughes’ expiring as well. And they get Carl Landry, who’s going to annihilated people on the pick and roll with Evans.  Having Hughes around for six months is a shame, but what else is new? And he wasn’t playing badly in New York for the first few months.

Daryl Morey runs the game. That’s it. I’m having T-shirts printed that say “Daryl Morey Runs The Game.” He just spun the guy who he told to go hang out in Chicago instead of playing for Jordan Hill, Kevin Martin and two first round pick advantages. This is sick. This is a disgusting trade for the Rockets. They get Hill to develop like they did Landry, they get Kevin Martin to pair with Brooks and Ariza, they get youth in the future and they still have Yao Ming and saved money. Seriously. I’m pretty sure Morey is an alien with advanced technology. This is absurd.

Okay, I’m going to go lie down and try and figure all this out.


WHAT DO YOU MEAN TYRUS THOMAS IS A BOBCAT?!

/passes out

TRADE DEADLINE: The Night The Whole Damn World Went Mad

(DEEP BREATH FOR AIR)

Okay.

Gah, where to start. Uh…

(SLAMS COFFEE)

(SLAMS REDBULL)

Okay.

Uh…CLEVELAND!

TRADE BREAKDOWNS AFTER THE JUMP.

Continue Reading…

NBA Trade Deadline: Rockets and Wizards Talk Swapping Messes On The Kitchen Floor

Sources told ESPN.com that the Rockets have indeed expressed an interest in Wizards forward Caron Butler and center Brendan Haywood. But for a Wizards-Rockets deal to go through, Washington would almost certainly try to hold out for at least one of Houston’s rotation players, such as Luis Scola, in addition to McGrady.

The Rockets, though, are determined to keep the core of a roster that has unexpectedly managed this season without McGrady and the injured Yao Ming. Houston is thus believed to be offering Washington only the payroll relief that would come with McGrady’s contract.

The Rockets, sources say, have made it clear that they are willing to surrender McGrady’s $22.5 million contract before the deadline if they can get quality talent in return, but they also have the option of simply keeping McGrady for the rest of the season and letting his contract expire to gain payroll flexibility for an offseason retooling.

via Sources: Washington Wizards and Houston Rockets still talking Tracy McGrady trade – ESPN.

I remember a time where if you said Caron Butler was available and the returning player wasn’t a top flight superstar, you had to restrain yourself from spitting “Yes!” excitedly like a high school girl thrilled to go to prom with the neatest of the neato.

Or as I like to call it, two years ago.

Now? Scola? No dice. Can’t have him. Scola may not be Landry (as opposed to last year, where you said “Landry may not be Scola” but he’s just as much  a component of the Rox’ success, if not moreso because of his overall impact. Scrapping him is giving up far too much when you get so much off the books to seek a versatile wing. Those aren’t hard to find. Hard-nosed Argentinian swinghammers and oodles and oodles of cap space? That’s a much more valuable commodity.

But if the Wiz will accept a true rebuilding package, say McGrady, two off-in-the-distance picks and rights to Joey Dorsey, they should take it. That first trigger push on detonation is the hardest, but it’s better to commit to it, hard and steady, than waver, leaving yourself unsure of what to do, like trying to figure out which crappy monopoly piece to sell to your opponent just to try and stay afloat. The answer is liquidate and go play a game that doesn’t suck.

I’m inclined to believe Morey will hold on to the cap space. After all the big names are settled, LeBron, Wade, Amar’e, there are still going to be tons of players available. And those guys will have their value diminished as ‘disappointing’ signings compared to the bigs. Those are the guys Morey can bank on. Find the diamonds in the rough, swing for a slam dunk draft pick, and then have so many good players you won’t know what to do with them all. His belief in superstars may be the same, but it’s better to wait for the superstar to come than to try and invent one by overpaying in trades or free agency. Stars aren’t tricks of the imagination, they’re brilliant unto themselves.

It Was Earth All Along

I don’t know if you heard, but over the Summer, the Houston Rockets essentially swapped Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza. The former is a bit of a wildcard, known for ill-advised 3s, elite perimeter defense, and something about snake eggs. The latter is a superb athlete, a tremendous wing defender, and an emerging shooting threat.

So why is it that the Houston Rockets were so woefully underestimated coming into the season, when the only significant difference between last year’s playoff team and this year’s would-be playoff time is the (occasionally bad) shot creating abilities of Artest?

I…I don’t know. Count me among the many that refused to acknowledge Houston’s potential. I didn’t see where the points were going to come from, even if Ariza is a young, talented player on a perfectly reasonable salary. Call me crazy, but I wasn’t sold on Aaron Brooks’ ability to score consistently, much less run an offense. And I saw some problems among their rotation of bigs, which had fallen to three productive if undersized power forwards in the absence of Yao Ming. Not only is none of that true, but we’ve seen virtually the opposite. Ariza may not be capable of producing shots at an elite level (as his .383), but his ability to get out in transition and connect on reasonable 3-point attempts has been crucial to Houston’s surprisingly competent offense. Aaron Brooks may not have the most efficient lines, but he’s proven that he has the speed to be a Tony Parker-esque penetrating and scoring point guard, albeit one with a much better touch from outside. And those Rocket bigs? The ones who were supposed to have problems against traditional centers and more physical lineups? They have Houston as the 7th best offensive rebounding team in the league, the 13th best defensive rebounding team, and provide an interesting amount of versatility with the defense of Chuck Hayes, the scoring of Carl Landry, and the savvy of Luis Scola.

In terms of efficiency, the Rockets are a perfectly average team. But considering that Yao Ming is on an extended vacation and Tracy McGrady is just starting to see the court, that’s more than commendable. It stands testament to just how good of a coach Rick Adelman is, and just how far pure effort can get you in the NBA. A limited roster of second round cast-offs and undrafted diamonds (or at least opals or something) int he rough is just 6.5 games behind the Los Angeles freaking Lakers. And all they’ve done to get there is everything they said they would based on everything they’ve always had. Daryl Morey simply waited as pundit after pundit (and blogger after blogger) penciled the Rockets into the lottery, biding his time until the scoreboard and the standings could sway the collective opinion in a way he never could.

A Deliberate Discussion Of Daryl Morey

I believe that the contract negotiations with Carl Landry proved that Morey will not hastily pay above the market rate to retain his own players. Morey could have moved quickly to resign Landry at the price of his (agent’s) demands, but instead, he opted to wait until Charlotte set the market rate. This patience is in stark contrast to the practice of Morey’s predecessor (see: Norris, Moochie; Maloney, Matt etc.)

via Discerning Morey’s Philosophy | Red 94.

An absolutely amazing dissection of the history of Daryl Morey at Red94, the new Rockets blog for THN.

People will often look to oversimplify Morey into nothing but a number-crunching dork, but the Landry contract extension was a great example of how shrewd Morey is. Morey had no intention of letting him walk. But instead of rushing into discussions, Morey established what his value was to the team, and when Landry tried to over-extend his value, Morey stared him down. Being able to make those kinds of decisions and working to only pay for the right value is a way more important skill than the crapshoot that is drafting.

I’m fascinated by the idea of Morey with all that cap room. He’s done so much with so little, you wonder if he’ll opt to add a premier piece, one that we can easily identify as a no-brainer, or if he’ll instead add multiple assets to work in the system. Will he overpay for someone we don’t think is that good but whose numbers are high? Has our understanding of advanced metrics put us in a place to see where Morey’s coming from? Will he fail when he has to acquire a star? So many questions. The Rockets have become science, full of discoveries and rote assumptions, but still full of drama and a big tall Chinese dude.