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Tag Archive - Chris Bosh

Miami Heat: Winning Like A Bosh Without Bosh

May 22, 2012 in by with 2 Comments

Via Flickr - Nina Amaho

You have a transcendent MVP and a former Finals MVP, the most feared pair of wings in the NBA. Do you really require Chris Bosh to beat the Indiana Pacers? Shouldn’t that caliber of talent be able to carry a team to the NBA Finals on their broad shoulders without a handful of rebounds and mid-range jumpers? Evidently not, judging by the popular opinion.

Today’s conventional wisdom seems to insist you have to have a bona fide Big 3 to compete in the playoffs, even in round two in the East let alone any final round series. This is flawed, a cop out, excuses. Who is Indiana’s third wheel then? If you can’t beat the Pacers with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade you honestly don’t deserve to sniff the conference finals let alone the promised land.

Not that Chris Bosh wasn’t a valuable piece and a tremendous loss to the cause, but seriously, he was that critical to success? Your entire Finals run, hyped with proud public promises, hinged on Chris Bosh? Chris freaking Bosh?!

Under normal circumstances Bosh’s replacement, Udonis Haslem, would more than cover up the loss of the Boshosaurus, but this season has been anything but usual, and that goes as much for Haslem as anyone. His string of buckets late in a Game 4 win may have seemed out of the norm, but really he was simply due for a progression to the mean after the horrendous season he’s had. Really, he’s been quite a capable mid-range shooter throughout his career until this oddball one, every bit as comparable as Bosh there.

Courtesy HoopData:

Anomalies abound from 3-23 feet between these two players in the last two seasons, but on average it shakes out pretty close. From 3-9 feet for their careers  Bosh is a mere 1.8% better from the floor than Haslem, and it lessens as the floor stretches out in the mid-range, 1.5% difference from 10-15 feet, and only 0.2% apart from 16-23 feet. The effects felt from the loss of Bosh in the mid-range game should be minimal, especially if Haslem does what he’s shown he’s quite capable of from there as he did the other night.

Defensively, of the ten most used lineups on the floor this season, according to BasketballValue,  Haslem appears in four of the best five. To Bosh’s credit, he appears in three of those top five as well, and Joel Anthony, who will primarily cover for those minutes at center that Bosh had been, two. So defensively, the loss of Bosh should be negligible as well, at least on paper. Erik Spoelstra’s squads are well known to be stingy on defense, and Bosh’s name rarely comes up in those conversations. Defensive adjustments shouldn’t be a huge factor.

Has Bosh’s value really evolved so much that he went from dinosaur status to missing link status?

For his career, normalized per-36 minutes, Haslem is an 11.4 points/9.5 rebounds guy, clearly not enough to put a couple of future Hall of Famers over the top, as these former championship third wheels show us at BasketballReference.

Oh wait…

What’s It Going To Take?

November 12, 2010 in by with 5 Comments

I don’t want to beat the “What Should I Do?” rhetorical question to death here. It’s been done, and overdone, and redone, and remocked and overmocked and the whole works. I loved the commercial (almost entirely for the “So… this went well.” joke. I never get tired of that gag. Why? Because it’s A. what you want him to say and B. what you think you would say. As I said on Twitter, I like the Nike LeBron so much more than the actual LeBron. I need a Nike me.), but we’re past it. But still, when I was trying to bring some sort of cohesive concept brought together about the Heat, it took a question to get me started. The opening point. The root.

“What’s it going to take?”

What’s it going to take, LeBron?

For you to get to that place, again? I’m not talking somewhere you’ve never been. I’m not like all the idiots out there talking about your playoff legacy as if Game 5 was the sum and total eclipse of it. It wasn’t. It was a bad game, brought on by something which was clearly not an organic output of your game. I don’t care what it was. It’s over. And in the great history of this game, every single player has a dark moment like that. They say you quit, fine. I’ve seen enough of you during this brilliant career of yours to know that simply doesn’t fit the mold. I’ve seen you bring playoff teams back from the brink, take over games like no one else and hit shots you have no business in hitting. So I’m not asking what it’s going to take for you to get to where you need to be, I’m asking what it’s going to take to get you back there. You said it was teammates. You’ve got ‘em. Kind of. You’ve at least got one, the true running mate, and Haslem wants it at least as badly as Varejao did.

You get to the lane, and you jump pass. You get to the rim, and you lean away. Is it the charge? Did the Drunken Seal spook you that badly? Again, don’t listen to the idiots saying you’re soft. Even if your mental constitution is lacking or damaged or whatever, you’re still simply physically superior to every player on the court. So I don’t buy it. So what is it? Why are you letting layup bounce off the rim instead of finishing with certainty? What’s it going to take to get your focus where it needs to be? What’s it going to take to get your anger riled? You’re not an angry person. Everything we know about you suggests this. I don’t mind it. Hell, I envy it. Not being bothered by what people say about you is a sign of courage, or at least inadvertent courage through obliviousness. But Jesus, man. The Celtics have twice spanked you. And I’m not just saying that because they beat you, and kept it comfortable for most of the game. I’m saying that because they treated you like a child who misbehaved, and sent you to your room.

To your credit? You got to the rim. While Celtics fans are complaining about your foul count, they’re also ignoring how consistent you were with attacking instead of settling for that pull-up jumper we’ve blasted you for. You worked to get to that rim, even if you deferred or shrank at the moment closest to completion. And you drew fouls. All over the place. Lots and lots and lots of jumpers. But you miss your free throws. Eight of twelve? Not going to get it done. Hit those four and it’s a one point game. Asking you to be flawless is too much? Too bad. That’s the table and you’re going to have to eat at it.

So what’s it going to take? What’s it going to take for you to get where you were, where you need to be, to finally give a damn about this team and the way it not only overcomes you, but does so like you don’t even matter? What’s it going to take?

What’s it going to take, Spoelstra?

It takes a special set of circumstances to give a coach an easier job than Phil Jackson has had. And yet you have both been blessed with such circumstances and failed in nine games to capitalize on it. This isn’t about Rome not being built in a day. This is about the Roman architects looking at stone and saying “Let’s make a boat!” Those turnovers in the first game? Forgivable. Completely. Teaching guys new places to be, new rotations, it takes time. But whatever this concept is that you’re trying to execute? It’s not working. Four of those five wins don’t matter, not to anyone that’s actually evaluating you, and the fifth is overshadowed by the New Orleans and Utah losses. So then you have a wash, and it comes down to Boston. Losing to Boston? Nothing wrong with that. But it’s the fact that you managed to construct a 5-point blowout and did so because continually your team is incapable of getting its star player a shot… despite having three of them! You cannot possibly think that jump-pass to James Jones after jump-pass to Eddie House after jump-pass to James Jones is what this offense should be about, do you?

41 of your 74 field goals were jumpers. 41 of 74. You have all these weapons, all these options, and you’re creating 41 of 72 jump shots inside the arc with another 20 three–pointers. That doesn’t really much left over for the kinds of shot you want to be getting, which are at rim. You ran 7 pick and rolls with James as the ball handler. You posted him 3 times. With Paul Pierce guarding him. What’s it going to take for you not to settle, Spo?

What’s it going to take, Riley?

What’s it going to take to realize that for all the classy veteran fun Carlos Arroyo brings you that you need a point guard? And we’re not talking Chris Paul here. You just need someone who isn’t going to get destroyed. Someone who can compete. D-League guys are bad, but they’ll at least bust through a screen if you tell them to. What’s it going to take to realize that all the ancient guys you brought on may not be viable options? What’s it going to take to realize that either someone says something to Chris Bosh, or he’s of little to no value to you?

What’s it going to take, world?

What’s it going to take to get past it? “The Decision was obnoxious. That’s certainly true. Coming up from the ground at the arena? Sure it looks bad. That wasn’t televised to a world audience. It was for the fans in Miami, and while the whole of them seem to suck so far, I’m sure there are actual Heat fans in that city who were pretty excited to have this happen to their team. Other than that? What? What did they do? Cleveland’s got every right to be livid with him and that team till the day they die. Fine. Can’t blame them. But since when did it become fashionable to make not just sports villains out of these guys but hold them up as if they are despicable human beings who deserve every ounce of scorn we can muster for them because they dared to get together to play basketball? What prompted this assertion that they are some terrible collection of human beings? They’re athletes. That’s it. Dwyane Wade does as much for charity as any player in the NBA and has always conducted himself with respect and dignity. Want to see him be a winner? Check 2006. You’ve got every right to cheer for your team, the good guys, and boo the bad guys. But the, honestly, frightening lack of respect for common humanity being lobbed at these guys is enough to make someone nauseous. They’re not sinners to us, that’s up to whatever things are out there in the ether. They’re just professional athletes who carry with them ego. You don’t think Baron Davis thinks he’s one of the best players in the league? Or Paul Pierce? Or Mo Williams? Or any other members of the highest professional basketball league in the world? Of course these guys have egos. Millions of people cheer for them on a daily basis. They’re not connected to reality. Very few athletes are.

But what gives us the right to criticize them beyond “Man, they sucked last night?” Because that’s not what’s going on. It’s “Those guys suck because they are classless pieces of trash who have no respect for themselves or the game.” Which is absurd. They’re just people. People who aren’t playing basketball very well together right now and had they played well last night and ended up six points better, you would simply be saying how “It doesn’t matter because they didn’t do it in the playoffs” or you’d be dead quiet. You want to talk about how Carlos Arroyo can’t play point guard? I’d love to hear your thoughts. You want to talk about how James and Wade need to stop taking drifting angles on drives? Let’s chat. But if you want to talk about how these guys don’t deserve our respect and we should lay down all their failures and roll around in them like Demi Moore in “Indecent Proposal?” What’s it going to take for us to move past this objectification of these people as some sort of symbol for what’s wrong with the world? They’re athletes. They play basketball, they go home.

Your vitriol is unsatisfying, it is disgusting, and it is unwarranted. What’s it going to take for you to grow up? Be fans. Don’t fit the narrative. And that goes double for writers.

You’re better than that.

What’s it going to take, rim?

What’s it going to take for you to not hate Dwyane Wade against the Celtics? I watched those shots. They weren’t bad shots. They were the same shots he always hits. But you had it rattle in and out of you fourteen times before rejecting it. Is it personal? You should get over it.

What’s it going to take, Boston?

What’s it going to take to beat you? What’s it going to take, because at this point, I don’t know that there’s a solution. Your rotations are perfect, your ball movement, sublime, and when it isn’t? You get the offensive rebound and you reset the offense and then, sure enough, because the defense was busy preparing for the break, Ray’s slipped to the corner and there he is, wide open. I don’t have any idea of when you’ll get old, when you’ll get tired, when you’ll get beatable. Because right now, as it has been since last mid-April, you look like the only thing that can take you down is the Lakers.

And I won’t even bother asking them.

SUCK IT WE WANT PAGE VIEWS: Miami Heat Trounce Orlando Magic

October 30, 2010 in by with 2 Comments

Well.

That went well.

Before we get into the nuts and bolts, meat and potatoes, Riggs and Murtaugh of this game, we need to look at something really weird from this contest. In looking at the box score from HoopData (which gives you a nice breakdown of shot locations if you didn’t already know even though we’ve been pumping this site for a year now), you’ll notice something really strange.

Knowing that Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis were guarding Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and knowing that Joel Anthony was guarding Dwight Howard, how many shots at the rim would you expect for this game? For a little perspective, the Heat averaged 22.5 attempts at the rim in their first two games and the Orlando Magic attempted 21 shots at the rim in their blowout win over Washington on Thursday night. So knowing all of that, how many total attempts at the rim would you guess?

That’s right. The two teams combined for just 17 shots at the rim in this game. Miami had just 10 attempts at the rim. Orlando had seven. Seven!!! I was dumbfounded to find that in the box score this morning. I knew there were a lot of long jumpers taken in this game. Tom Haberstroh breaks it down wonderfully at the Heat Index. It’s astounding to me that these two teams who have a reputation for attacking the rim so ferociously already would settle for lower percentage shots all game long (cue LeBron critics shouting about his shot selection).

But that’s not really the whole story of this game. The Miami Heat is a second half team. Even though they played well in the first half offensively, they have now shown in three straight games that they come out of halftime with a defensive intensity that not many teams will be able to match. The Boston Celtics had enough of a cushion to withstand it in the first game. The Philadelphia 76ers were simply overmatched in the second game. And the Orlando Magic wilted in this third game.

The first half was disjointed but pretty good. Dwight Howard showed off a weird array of jumpers and running hooks that he efficiently showed in the preseason. LeBron James was settling for long 2-point shots instead of ferociously trying to tear the rim down whenever he could (which is a trend when he plays against Dwight). Either team will settle for that happening all game long because that’s what you want them to take. But for the most part both teams exchanged blows in the first 24 minutes of this game.

Then the second half happened and the Miami Heat clamped down on the Magic. Their perimeter defense is scary good. Think about the fact they’ve only been playing together for three games and it looks this good in the key stretches of games. What’s it going to look like in February? May? June? I know their interior is perceived as weak but it’s not really about having a Dwight Howard or Andrew Bogut in the middle for them. They don’t need it because the rest of the defense appears to be so good. Granted, they lucked out on a lot of missed 3s by the Magic (4/24). It doesn’t change the fact that the Magic scored just 25 points in the second half while shooting 19% from the field and 12.5% from 3-point range.

The perimeter defense just swarms the entire time and they end up running the shot clock down for the other team because of it. They did this in the second half against Orlando. The double teams were fast and aggressive. The rotations were even faster and helped them recover incredibly fast. The defense won’t be like this every night. Sometimes it will be worse. But sometimes it might also be better when they get more continuity with each other. This was an impressive win (maybe not a statement making win) any way you look at it.

Let’s Talk About Role Players

Zyndrunas Ilgauskas was fantastic in this game. He didn’t dominate Dwight Howard or hit a bunch of key jumpers. He just did his job of being big and getting in the way of the things going on inside. 8 points on 10 shots looks bad and frankly, it is. But he had five offensive rebounds in the game and neutralized Orlando inside when he was on the court.

In three games so far this year, Eddie House and James Jones have combined to hit 16 of their 30 3-point attempts. Imagine this constant outside attack when Mike Miller comes back to the team and gets into a rhythm. What do you do? How do you guard them? Does it really matter they don’t have an All-Star caliber center?

Udonis Haslem has 22 rebounds against the Celtics and Magic this season. Granted, one of those games ended up being a loss but he’s going to be as important as any role player on this team. He’s always been willing to sacrifice his personal adulation for hard work and everything that will benefit the team. We need to get him onto a serious 6th Man of the Year award watch.

Oh, Before I Forget … This Happened

Why LeBron James is going all Kristen Stewart on us, I don’t really know. I’m not quite sure if this is a tribute to True Blood, Twilight, or if he just wants to turn the term “fangbanger” into one of his signature dunks. Regardless, this just seems dangerous and irresponsible. You’re just asking to impale your own lip or get caught in Dwyane Wade’s cheek when you do one of those super cool flying hip checks to celebrate a big shot.

SUCK IT WE WANT PAGE VIEWS: Miami Heat Take Liberty From 76ers

October 28, 2010 in by with 0 Comments

The Heat are a .500 team! The Heat are a .500 team!

This is incredible.

The Miami Heat were done as of about 2 quarters into this game. They were struggling against the lowly but athletically stupendous Philadelphia 76ers. Keep in mind they were up eight points at halftime.

The problem with this Heat team is they’re still getting used to each other. Yes, that’s an easy excuse to make but it doesn’t make it wrong. You can tell in the way they’re running the offense. Defensively, I don’t believe it to be an excuse because that’s just a matter of awareness and effort. But offensively, there is a certain timing and understanding amongst all the players (outside of Haslem, Wade and Arroyo who play well off of knowing each other’s games) that is lacking.

Does that mean when they get this timing and understanding down they’ll run through the entire league and manage to win three championships in two seasons, cure cancer, defeat the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man and put out a folk album that makes The Beatles’ White Album look like a Ricky Martin interpretive dance cover band’s mixtape?

No, not necessarily.

It just means we won’t see them be so careless with the ball and have LeBron James turning the ball over enough times to make Darren Collison blush. Or maybe they will still turn the ball over from trying to do too much. Look at the Celtics. They have great chemistry together and still turn the ball over an obscene amount of times.

The things I noticed about this Heat team is when the defense is clicking, they’re pretty special to watch. In the second half of the loss to the Celtics, they locked down defensively and made enough runs to make this game extremely interesting. In the third quarter of the win against the 76ers, the clamps were applied and the Sixers had nothing they could do about it. Some of that had to do with a young point guard like Jrue Holiday still feeling his away around a good perimeter defensive unit.

In the ultimately decisive third quarter, Philly had more turnovers (six) than made baskets (four). Elton Brand scored three of those buckets and two of them were inside. The rest of the Sixers offense got chased all around the perimeter and forced into poor decisions.

Hey, let’s talk about the role players for a minute.

James Jones can fill in for Mike Miller. Maybe you don’t want him to do that when it’s playoff time and you need a better playmaker in case the defense chases him off that 3-point shot. But as of right now, James Jones can get hot and will always have open spaces to shoot. He knocked down six 3-pointers in this game and was sort of ridiculously hot all game. When the Sixers made a couple of runs, he answered with 3s, especially in the second quarter.

Carlos Arroyo isn’t really that good but he had a nice steady hand in this game. He’s going to get abused by the Rondos of the world but so do most point guards. Put him against a young guy like Holiday and the talent discrepancy is diminished because of a little veteran savvy.

Udonis Haslem should not guard athletic 3s posing as terrifyingly athletic 4s. Thaddeus Young abused Haslem every time he had to guard him. Young was simply too quick for Udonis and blew by him whenever he wanted. In the later rounds of the playoffs, you’ll see more and more matchups with Haslem guarding more traditional 4s but if you can stretch out the offense a bit (I’m looking at you, Orlando) then you might be able to expose that part of Halsem’s game.

Key Stat of the Game

Dwyane Wade had 12 shot attempts at the rim. 12 is not an absurd number by any means but it was a lot better than what we saw against the Celtics when he had seven attempts and the majority of them were not all that aggressive and composed. It’s probably easier when you don’t have the Celtics help line to contend with and Wade took full advantage of Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand being the stopgaps.

SUCK IT WE WANT PAGE VIEWS: Heat Lose Opener To Celtics 88-80

October 27, 2010 in by with 1 Comment

Panic. Shock. Awe. Failure. Need to go 72-9 now.

The Miami Heat lost a game – their first game. It was an eight-point dismantling that was actually a three-point game with 50 seconds left.

It’s pretty much a lost cause. Well, okay. It’s not a lost cause. But it’s an embarrassing loss that shows the utter stupidity and ridiculousness of The Decision.

Well, okay. It’s not quite that dramatic. But they only scored 30 points in their first 24 minutes of the season. That was pretty bad.

The Miami Heat are down to 0-1 on the season after being smothered by some Celtics defense before getting it together a little bit only to prove none of them are winners and they simply can’t do it on their own or as a collective unit at the end of games or something.

I don’t really know what you take from this game other than the Celtics defense looks freaking good.

Did the Miami Heat have opening night jitters? Nine points in the first quarter and just 30 points at halftime thanks to some 26.8% shooting from the field certainly say so. At the same time, you have to attribute the Celtics defensive cohesiveness for turning the Heat into a jump shooting team. The Miami Heat had just 28 points in the paint. That’s 14 baskets in the paint and considering they only made 27 shots in the game, it shows just how little the Heat were able to do on the perimeter.

The Miami heat took 50 jumpers (out of 74 total field goal attempts) in this game and made just 13 of them. The Celtics took just 33 jumpers (out of 69 total field goal attempts). For the most part, the Celtics were attacking inside and finding ways to get guys open shots. Rajon Rondo played the role of willing playmaker while dissecting the Heat defense as if it was were a fetal pig in biology class (had to do that once in high school. It was weird). The Heat had Carlos Arroyo and Eddie House run the point whenever LeBron wasn’t dribbling around the perimeter.

It doesn’t mean the Heat are a flawed team by any means. One game (especially the first game together) doesn’t kill this experiment or prove the naysayers to be correct. It’s just as easy to say this team can’t play together as it is to proclaim they simply need more than three preseason minutes together to get any sense of cohesion.

As bad as the first half looked for the Miami Heat, they sort of pulled it together in the second half and had a chance to tie the game in the fourth quarter if they could make one stop. Instead, they gave up a huge 3-pointer to Ray Allen with 49 seconds left in the game. The Heat erased a second half deficit like many Celtics opponents did last season. But when it counted, they continued to give up wide-open looks from 3-point range that the Celtics knocked down in a clutch manner.

Overall, there wasn’t a huge advantage for either team in most aspects of the game. Rondo had more assists (17) than the entire Miami team (15) and the Celtics dominated the points in the paint. And that might have been the only difference between an eight-point loss in Boston and pulling out a win in their first real game together. The Celtics had a negligible advantage on the boards, were worse in turnovers and free throw shooting, and allowed the Heat to stay relatively in the game with a lot of turnovers in the first half.

The problem was the Celtics brought a championship level defense to the party and the Heat’s second best player in this game ended up being a tie between Udonis Haslem and Eddie House.

Let that marinate until Game 2 for Miami.

Post Game Tweets!

@KingJames – “Rome wasn’t built in a Day! Work in progress. On to the next one”

@Dwadeofficial – “Not a great 1 but its 1 of 82..felt good 2 finally play a game this season. Now ill work on my rhythm and chemistry with the guys..”

@chrisbosh – “The wait is finally over. Opening night is finally here and I’m more than ready!”

Okay, that last tweet from Bosh before the game. I guess he wasn’t in the mood to tweet.

Miami Heat: The Greatest Assets Fail If Considered Out Of Context

October 11, 2010 in by with 4 Comments

The biggest difference between this Heat locker room and what we saw in Cleveland, though, may be in attitude. The Cavs were consistently discussed as being very loose, very easy going, always joking. The bench famously danced to their opponents’ misfortune . Many found it disrespectful, some found it unprofessional. It’s possible that the Heat could turn into the same happy go-lucky bunch when they get to know one another better, when there aren’t kids scrapping for a final roster spot on a team that could net them a championship their first year in. But there was a very clear sense of the tone of the Heat both in the locker room and on the floor, best summed up by Udonis Haslem before the game.

“From Day 1,” Haslem said, “when everyone started to make sacrifices to be a part of this, we understood what it’s all about. It’s all about business, and everyone coming together for a common goal, to try and win a championship.”

via Heat are all business as team develops – CBSSports.com.

From a piece of mine at CBS after witnessing the Heat first hand. It’s a weird combination of people, with a weird vibe. It’s also going to be an incredibly good team. Do not be fooled. Don’t bite on the “it’s only preseason” talk. This team is going to be good. But for the Celtics fans who are outraged that another Eastern team dare receive some morsel of attention that should be rightfully theirs as reigning power, this should also be noted. The Celtics are perfectly positioned to beat this team, and make it look impressive, just as they did with the Cavs.

For starters, I think you’re going to see a lot more perimeter pick and roll with Wade as the screen-man instead of James. I now that sound bezerk considering the size differential but I watched Mike Miller running Wade’s sets and based on where most of the motion of the offense has been through two games, I don’t think it’s nuts to think that carries over. The Heat obviously are focused on the idea of space. Using James to peel over the weak side defender, which forces the low defender to rise up to close out on Bosh who is inevitably open for a mid-range J which he’ll knock down almost every time. Using the perimeter pick and roll with Wade as the off-ball man forces both defenders to pursue James in order to stop the drive, which means on the kickout, Wade has more space to either drive or shoot. Now, if his three point shooting doesn’t improve, this approach becomes flawed. That’s something to track.

But it’s this drive to create space that’s likely to pay into the Celtics’ hands. For example, off the screen and roll it won’t be Wade’s man shading toward James’ near-side, it’ll be a low-defender, forcing James to spit low to Joel Anthony, a result the Celtics will live with every time. It won’t be a problem closing out on Bosh because it will be Kevin Garnett slightly edging over instead of wildly committing. And should James get to the basket, the Celtics are likely okay with that to a degree, in that they’ll simply hit him on the elbow as hard as possible. And while James hasn’t iced the elbow this preseason and seems to be fine? I’m telling you, unless what my eyes see is completely fabricated, it’s not.

I told a colleague that James in the post is almost an impossible option because due to his size and ability differential, the defense HAS to commit a double, at which point his efficiency plummets. The colleague responded by saying “Yeah, but think about how many fouls he probably draws down there.” I decided to look it up on Synergy, and low and behold, James draws free throws 25% of the time he’s in the block. Among qualifying centers who spent at least 50 possessions down there last year? James was second behind Howard. That’s pretty incredible.  And that’s really the only way the Heat would be able to beat the Celtics. It would take grinding, to a degree none of the Triad have really done outside of Wade in the 06 Finals, when he simply went to the rim every single time, and was fouled every single time (and he was fouled, Mavs fans).

The article talks about the business approach of the Heat and how it could affect them this season. It could also be too much for them. If this team gets on a losing streak, it could wind up like spring, then pop, with an unfortunate role player being the collateral damage. And God forbid if Bosh starts missing mid-range J’s. In the interim, be prepared for a highlight factory, because this team in transition is simply stupendous. As James sprinted down court with Bosh edging to the baseline and Miller flashing to the perimeter, I realized that even without Wade, this is the best team James has been on. Forget Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Mo Williams. This team has more talent with more understated players that know and obsess over their role than anyone.

It’s frightening to see what kind of thing we’re dealing with, even in the preseason, before it’s even really unleashed.

The Western Wing: LeBron and His Popular Friends Think You are a Loser

July 15, 2010 in by with 5 Comments

If you think that LeBron, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh won’t be successful, you’re an idiot. The good news is that you’re in the company of other idiots, haters and those who obviously haven’t played or understood basketball.

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Here Today, Gone Tomorro’w

May 24, 2010 in by with 0 Comments

At this point, being angry at Lamar Odom or Amar’e Stoudemire for being brilliant 40% of the time, adequate 30% of the time, and mediocre 30% of the time isn’t just a waste of time (it always was), it’s an insult to their species (half-beast, half-ghost werewolves, in case you were wondering). A favorite sentiment of mine is the “Can’t blame a snake for being a snake.” And just as Kobe can’t be faulted for being less than human with his emotions and how he shows them to us, Amar’e and Odom can’t be faulted for being too human in their penchant for just being there .

They’re simply not programmed to think the same way every time that entry pass floats in. Their systems don’t flash “KILL” with bright red lights and sirens, not every play. There are those nights, and its on those nights that they earn fans. They make gawkers out of us. But then there’s the rest of the time, when they just look ordinary, like so many other players on the floor. And their space cadet act is more noticeable because of that. It’s like watching Superman flip burgers, or Ali getting caught. For the other side that delights in their failures because of their “hype,” games like last night are just as jarring. You walk into your favorite music club and there’s your cubicle mate, the one you always thought probably dated through World of Warcraft and lived with his mom,  shredding a cover of “Mary Had A Little Lamb.”

It would be nice to say that they’re always surprising us one way or another, but instead, they just disappoint. We can’t accept a player’s limit in “turning it on,” not when they make it look so effortless. In-between all that disappointment, though, are those rare nights when you hope they come through and do what they can, and they deliver.

That game? That punishing, brutalizing, evasive, “What else do we have to do to the guy” game? That’s why I want Amar’e. I’ve tried every conceivable approach to justifying him over Bosh, and there is none. Bosh is more efficient, more consistent, has just as many big games (and lacks playoff appearances to judge him on such), is younger, has the defense, rebounds better, the works. Trust me, I spent some time trying to muscle up some stats to support Amar’e over Bosh. Both play in high octane, offense first systems. Both have shown emotional immaturity. Both have defensive numbers by Synergy better than you’d expect. And there are the things you’d expect, like “What if Bosh played with Nash” and “Bosh doesn’t have as many defensive lapses.” (Though I’d argue there is ample evidence to suggest that Bosh has as many offensive lapses. If Amar’e knows it’s do or die, he’s going to the rim, Bosh is stepping even further back, believing he has reliable range he doesn’t.)

Even if Bosh is the superior player, that doesn’t mean that Amar’e's not worth it. Those teams that have cap space but lack the assets for a sign and trade (heya, Miami) need to make it known that if Amar’e opts out, he’s going to get the offers he’d want outside of a sign and trade. Maybe he wants that extra year. But if he doesn’t, and he’s holding a grudge for being jerked around for two years by a regime that thought Shaquille O’Neal was the answer, those teams need to be willing to offer him whatever. It’s certainly true that having Nash is a large part of what Amar’e so good. But it’s also worth noting that having Amar’e is partially why Nash was so good. He’s not dropping five assists a game, or anything, but it becomes much harder when you’re a revelation painter working with finger paint.

Miami’s staring down the barrel of going to war next year with a starting five of Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Michael Beasley, Carlos Boozer, and Joel Anthony. And somehow, this is supposed to be the team that puts Wade back into championship contention. If I were Wade, I’d have already thrown my fist down on the table and said “If Bosh or Amar’e is not inked before you bring me my max contract and throne of solid gold, I’m going to defecate on it and then set it on fire.” Amar’e can be the guy you turn to and have him rack up what you need. He took Pau Gasol, who’s having another very successful playoff turn, and made him look ridiculous (that underside reverse thing was just silly).

Most Valuable Column – March

March 31, 2010 in by with 3 Comments

It’s nearly playoff time, which means that the MVP Race should be sorting itself out.

And to some degree, it is. While there’s a few players whose stats make a nice case, it’s really only down to a few. And then, the MVP really comes down to just what MVP means.

Still, the race has opened up maybe just a little. As such, I’ve broken it down into groups. The players on the outside track, those who are either just shy of being the MVP or are starting to fall out of the race. Then there’s the inside track, those who are – or should be – in the actual discussion.

What is that discussion, though?

In the past decade – from the 1999-2000 season until last season – no MVP winner had a PER of less then 22.0, or less then 10.9 Win Shares (both marks belong to Steve Nash, interestingly enough).

But on average, the MVP winner has a PER of 26.8 and 15.7 Win Shares.

A quick explanation before I jump in. PER takes skills like accurate shooting, offensive rebounding, turnovers and more adjusted for pace; Offensive Percentage takes what’s known as the four factors – offensive rebounds, turnovers, the ability to draw fouls and such – and gets a look at how many points per possession a player got. One relies heavily on more defensive abilities like rebounding, blocks, etc., while the other looks at how well a player can shoot or pass effectively.

Outside Track

What does it mean to be on the outside track? For my purposes, these are two players who maybe deserve mention as possible MVP candidates, but aren’t the MVP. Maybe they deserve to be on the ballot or maybe they’re falling away from the pack but aren’t out. They’re the players who make their team better, but don’t make that team great.

Chris Bosh, F, Toronto Raptors

8.7 Win Shares (<20th in NBA), 24.6 PER (fifth in NBA)

Why is Bosh so far back? Wasn’t it less then a month ago I had him a lot deeper? And not too long before that I called him a longshot to actually be named the MVP? In the immortal words of Mike LaFontaine, “Whaaa Happened?”

I don’t know exactly what happened, but it has something to do with injury a while back. Since returning, Bosh’s play has been a tad more erratic, a little less good then it was before the season. He’s driving less to the basket and settling for jump shots. Since he came back on March 7, the Raptors have gone 4-9, losing to teams like Golden State, Philadelphia and Sacramento.

When Bosh came back – March 7, against the Sixers – he had a quiet 12-point, 12-rebound game. The Raptors lost 114-101. That was the start of a five-game skid for the Raps, who also lost games to the Lakers, Sacramento, Portland and Golden State. In that stretch, Bosh averaged 20 points and eight rebounds. Still, Bosh is having a career year: per 36 minutes, he’s averaging 26 points and just under 11 rebounds, both career highs. His PER is also a career high.

But this isn’t a look at his numbers, this is a look at his advanced stats. His PER had dropped from the last time I wrote about him, from 26.3 (then fourth in the NBA) to 24.6 (fifth). He also has an Offensive Rating of 116, putting him behind Andrei Kirilenko, Jose Calderon and JJ Reddick. What these mean is that his MVP stock is dropping; he isn’t playing as efficiently and his offensive presence isn’t as strong as it was before the all-star break. For example: since the All-Star break, Bosh had scored more then 25 points once, when he scored 36 in a win over the Nets. He had 28 games with 25 or more before the break.

These both play into his Win Shares. At the end of February, Bosh had 8.4 WS, sixth in the NBA. In a month, it’s only scantly improved to 8.7 and has dropped out of the NBA’s top 20. His window at a MVP trophy has basically shut.

Dwayne Wade, G, Miami Heat

28.1 PER (2nd in NBA), 11.8 Win Shares (4th in NBA)

Wade has not really been a trendy name in MVP talk, nor has he been part of an exceptionally great team. But he’s a big part of a Heat team that’s a playoff lock and no slouch – on Sunday, they mounted an 11-point fourth quarter comeback to beat the Raptors, in large part thanks to Wade. He played over 42 minutes, had 32 points, seven rebounds and six assists and led both sides in +/-. Not bad.

Yes, Wade’s still leading the Heat in scoring, minutes played, assists and steals, as he should. He’s not even that far back in rebounds. Per 36 minutes, he’s averaging 26.3 points on .471 shooting, 4.8 rebounds and 6.6 assists.

His play is a pretty big reason why the Heat have been so good going into the postseason. In the month of March they’ve only lost three games, two of them by eight points or less, and are have won eight of the last ten. This is a team that’s found it’s stride.

That stretch has contributed to some good stats for Wade, too: He has an offensive rating of 112 and a PER of 28.1, second in the NBA. His PER has actually risen a bit in the past month in a period where most player’s PER starts to drop. Likewise, his WS have improved too: he’s at 11.8, fourth in the NBA and an improvment of 3.2 wins. He’s moved up a spot, too.

Why should he be MVP? Well, how many other guards would be able to help their team as much as Wade helps the Heat? If he were replaced by somebody else – let’s say Jose Calderon  - are the Heat still in playoff contention? I’d argue that no, they’re not. I’m not sure I’d vote for Wade over some of the players below, but I think he’s worth having in the discussion.

Inside Track

As the name would suggest, the inside track players have the inside track to the MVP award. There’s a favorite, yes, but these are the players who don’t just deserve to be on the ballot but maybe a vote or two. They’re showing that not only are they among the best players in the NBA, but they’re making their team among the best in the league.

Dwight Howard, C, Orlando Magic

24.2 PER (6th in NBA), 12.1 Win Shares (3rd in NBA)

It’s getting hard to overlook the Magic. They’re the second team in the East to clinch a playoff spot and their Simple Rating System score – a measure of how much better the Magic are then their opponents – is second highest in the NBA. In both respects, they’re only just behind the Cavs.

And a lot of this goes to Howard. Of course he’s leading the team in points, blocks and rebounds and free throw attempts. But he’s started all 74 games this season and played nearly 2600 minutes, even with all the punishment he takes down low (and one doesn’t lead the NBA in free throw attempts without taking a lot of punishment). Besides getting to line more then anybody else, he’s leading the NBA in rebounds and blocks.

His advanced numbers continue make a good case for Howard. His PER is sixth in the NBA at 24.2. His Win Shares are third-highest, at 12.1. As you’ll recall from above, those are pretty close to average for a MVP.

But his resume goes a little deeper then that. He leads the NBA in True Shooting Per Cent, a stat that weighs total shooting efficiency, free throws and otherwise. If you’re a believer that defense wins titles, remember that Howard leads the NBA in Defensive Win Shares and Defensive Rating, a look at points allowed per 100 possessions.

One could certainly make a far worse choice for MVP.


Kevin Durant, F, Oklahoma City Thunder

25.5 PER (3rd in NBA), 13.8 Win Shares (2nd in NBA)

The Thunder are basically one of the most exciting teams in basketball right now, in large part thanks to Durant, who may be the best pure scorer in the NBA. He’s leading the league in points, is right behind LeBron in field goals and has made the most free throws in the NBA. So why are the Thunder still only one game ahead of San Antonio and the eighth seed in the NBA?

As a commenter pointed out last time, he it’s not so much that he’s carrying the team as it how he doesn’t have a second banana on the Thunder. That’s a good point.

Take the Thunder’s loss to the San Antonio on the 22nd. Durant went off for 45 points and eight boards, but only had three other players score more then 10 points (and none with more then 16). It’s a bit of a problem for the Thunder. They have other players who step up every so often – Westbrook, for instance, has had a couple of 30-point, 12 or more assist games – but nobody is able to do it on a regular basis.

The Thunder are hardly alone in that respect. Toronto doesn’t have a true second either – sometime’s it’s Bosh, sometimes it’s Hedo. Once it was Sonny Weems. Most teams don’t usually have somebody else who can score like their star on a regular basis, so it’s hardly a knock against the Thunder.

Still, in spite of this, Durant is blossoming. In the past month, his PER has slightly increased to 25.5 while his Offensive Rating is 116, both of which show how important he is to his team’s offense. His Win Shares have gone up too, to 13.8, second in the NBA. Consider how often Durant can get to the line, too: only LeBron gets to the line as often as Durant.

At this point, playing in a small market doesn’t hurt his chances either. When Bill Simmons is doing a running diary of a Monday night game featuring your team – and calls him his favorite non-Celtic player – you’ve probably arrived as a viable MVP candidate.


The Favorite
LeBron James, F, Cleveland Cavaliers

31.7 PER (first in NBA), 18.3 Win Shares (first in NBA)

The other day, Shaq called LeBron the MVP. I can’t say I’d argue.

He’s leading the league in PER and Win Shares, by a good margin in both. His Cavs are the best team in the NBA right now and were the first team to clinch their division. If you look at the average numbers for a MVP, James has already passed both of them. Really, what more can I argue for his case? That he’s tied for the league lead in point per game? That he’s got his highest shooting percentage ever? That he’s already set a career high for assists and points per 36 minutes? That he’s the only player to be in the top 10 for Offensive Rating and PER – meaning that he’s excelling in two different regards.

How about a look at his advanced numbers. Since the end of last month, his Win Shares have increased, while his PER has stayed above 31; in the past 20 seasons, only Michael Jordan had a PER that high.

There’s a few things one can take away from James. At a glance, his team looks very good – there are four regulars with a PER of 15 or more. Of the Cavs starters and sixth man (the five with the most starts and the player with the most minutes not on the starters), the average PER is 18.54.

That average is higher then that of any other MVP candidate’s team (for reference Orlando’s average is 16.78; the Thunder’s is 16.65, Miami’s is 17.57 and Toronto’s is 16.77). How much of that is due to James? Certainly some of it is… but he’s only one player. His contribution to the Cavs can’t be that much larger then Durant’s is to the Thunder. If anything it shows how much a player like Wade or Bosh mean to their team – they’re the only player on each of those teams has a PER significantly higher then that average.

Then again, another way to look at those averages is that James makes his team that much better. That’s also another way to define what the MVP is, isn’t it?

The Amir Johnson Nonsense Must Stop

March 8, 2010 in by with 18 Comments

The Bargnani talk veered off into a discussion of whose minutes a guy like Reggie Evans should be slicing into, if any? Is it Bargnani’s or Johnson’s? The stats point to the Raptors being a better team with Johnson on the floor as he brings more defense at the cost of offense which we seem to have in spades. Does Bargnani get a free pass when compared to Johnson? Amir gets yanked out of the game after two bad plays, but Bargnani continues to see floor time (39+ minutes last night) despite being a non-factor on defense and providing inconsistent offense. Is it a double-standard? What kind of message does it send?

via Rapcast #63: Bargnani indicted | Raptors Republic – ESPN TrueHoop’s Raptors Blog.

I kind of hope the Raptors re-sign Bosh and then find some magical way to trade Bargnani. Because the amount of crap that kid gets in comparison to two role players behind him is ridiculous.

Reggie Evans can’t play. I mean, he can. You just don’t want him to. He’d make a nice mascot, but I don’t want him working pick and roll defense on the floor. And that’s the good side of him. Because if he tries to shoot, whoa boy.

Amir Johnson is the other one. The dude was a rallying point in Detroit. Now he’s a rallying point in Toronto. I honestly believe that fans want him to start and for Bargnani, scoring 20 points with 10.5 7.5 (CORRECTION: I massively screwed up here and posted Barg’s TRR, which is horrid at 10.5, instead of his Total rebounds, which is mediocre at 7.5) boards per 40, mind you, to come off the bench.

Andrea Bargnani is a better basketball player than Amir Johnson. A MUCH better basketball player. All those things that people tend to denigrate him for, the defense, the focus, etc.? Those are systemic problems. It’s not like the Raps are a solid defensive squad except when Bargnani’s out there. They are systemically bad at defense.

Meanwhile, when he is on the floor, he provides a range shooter and athletic big that creates matchup nightmares all over the place. When Johnson is on the floor? He creates a big man version of Matt Barnes without the range.

I’m not sold on Bargnani as a centerpiece, but that’s the whole problem with this Raptors roster. The core pieces that have been set up as what should be built around, probably aren’t. That includes Bargnani. But that also includes Amir Johnson, Reggie Evans, Jose Calderon, and possibly even Chris Bosh.

UPDATE: I fear I may have (yet again), oversimplified things without pointing out all the random nonsense going on inside my head. So a few follow-ups.

1. The podcast is quite good. That’s why I linked to it. They mostly talk about the facts, which are that the defense does statistically play better with Johnson on board rather than Bargs, and there could be a host of reasons for that.

2. My main beef with the Reggie Evans thing is that there is a palpable sense from Raptors fans (not specifically the fine gents at Raps Republic) that they need more Reggie and Amir. That that will make them a better basketball team. Which completely ignores the fact that what Bargnani gives them on offense is really difficult to replace. A big that can stretch the floor, drive, and hit from the perimeter? That’s kind of a big deal. I know there’s some disappointment with Evans from Raps fans, but instead of turning on management, Bargs seems to be the main target.

3. It actually brings up a really interesting idea I’d like to kick around, on if there is a significant increase in sixth through eighth men off the bench in defensive lineups on average, and where Johnson lines up with that.

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