When it was announced this week that Michael Redd will be joining the Suns on a one year deal, I immediately dismissed the move. Redd hasn’t been an effective NBA player since January 2009, and even then he was working at a notch below his lofty mid-00s standards. Not even the Phoenix warlocks have so much black magic in their spell books.
I was then immediately overtaken by the finest of guilt trips. No, Redd won’t be good for Phoenix, but he was always one of my favorite players, from his Ohio State days (Scoonie Penn, where ya at?) to his emergence from a second round draft pick stuck behind a prime Ray Allen on the depth chart to an NBA all-star. More impressively, Redd worked his butt off to fuel his meteoric rise: a 32% 3 point shooter over his 3 year college career who slashed towards the basket for his dough, Redd established himself as one of the best snipers in the NBA to round out an impressive scoring repertoire.
The transformation that Redd went through should be remembered regardless of how the shooting guard’s latest comeback attempt turns out at the still-vibrant age of 32. Players don’t just become different players overnight: it’s a rare feat created by hard work and the correct mental state. Which is why we all need to take a good look in the mirror and give a big hand of applause for Danilo Gallinari.
When Gallo entered the league, he wasn’t hailed as a threes-threes-and-more-threes type of gunner. In fact, if you take a look at Chad Ford’s old draft card, you see the words “all-around skills” and “excellent slasher to the basket” next to “questions about his long-range shooting”. The major concern, though, was how his athleticism would translate to the NBA level; all-world skill can take you very in this league, but working as a middling athlete with a bad back is a serious limitation.
But once he started playing in the NBA, he was a gunner realized. During his statistically negligible injury plagued rookie season, 72 of Gallo’s 125 field goal attempts, or a whopping 57.6%, came from 3 point range. Not quite James Jones levels, here, but still quite the achievement from a supposedly all-around scorer. percentage from a scorer. His sophomore season differed mostly in health – Gallo played 81 games instead of just 28, but still shot 488 shots behind the arc and just 438 inside it, or 52.7%.
But something weird happened once 2010-2011 came along: Gallo was drawn inwards. For easier visual representation, please consult this chart. For each of Gallo’s first five “years” in the league (despite sample-size driven issues, I split Gallo’s 2010-2011 campaign to 48 games with the Knicks and 14 games with the Nuggets, and included his 6 game start to 2011-2012), we have 3 point attempts, free throw attempts, and shots taken at the rim, all per-40 minutes. The results are staggering.
Gallo has reduced the amount of threes he takes, dramatically improved his ability to get to the line, peaking in a ridiculous post-trade stretch of 101 attempts in 433 minutes before coming back slightly to Earth to start this season, and has upped his attempts at the rim as well.
In fact, Gallo has improved so much at getting to the rim, that so far this season he, Danilo Gallinari, AKA soft-Euro, weird-hair-gel, bad-back-small-forward is tied for second in the leagues in dunks. We’ve barely started the season and everything should be taken with mountains on mountains of salt, but if that doesn’t make your jaw drop, I don’t know what does. Gallo’s scoring has stayed mostly the same due to his absolutely horrendous shooting – he’s currently sporting an effective field goal percentage of 40.3%, thanks to making just 4 of his 28 threes so far. If he were to make just 6 more, thus bringing him to 35.7%, slightly below his career mark of 36.9%, he would have been averaging 18 points a night on just 12 field goal attempts.
If this major jump in free throw rate looks familiar, it’s because it is. Virtually every NBA superstar has seen his rise to stardom coincide with a major boost in free throw rate. Just for kicks, here are some recent examples of backcourt superstars and their free throw rates for the first four years of their career, next to Gallo’s:
Again, the results pretty much speak for themselves. If you’re going to be an elite scorer playing from the outside-in, you better be capable of getting yourself to the line. All of these guys have made a jump towards to 0.4-0.5 range (Derrick Rose’s 0.47 comes with a small sample size, but it’s pretty consistent with the dramatic improvement he showed throughout his 3rd year, and we’re dismissing Russell Westbrook’s 4th year 0.25 as the horrible start that it is), with the exception of the guys that already started there. And none of those guys were nearly as perimeter-oriented as they entered the league as Gallo was.
Gallo obviously has a long way to go until he catches up with this group, both scoring-wise and elsewhere, but he’s already made a huge step. If he can recover his long-range stroke, he might just be that go-to-guy the Nuggets so desperately need.
All stats courtesy of Hoopdata, and accurate as of the moments preceeding January 5th‘s games. So if you’re reading this after Gallo made 35 threes without a single free throw attempt against the Kings, I’m sorry.





