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Miami Heat: Winning Like A Bosh Without Bosh

Via Flickr - Nina Amaho

You have a transcendent MVP and a former Finals MVP, the most feared pair of wings in the NBA. Do you really require Chris Bosh to beat the Indiana Pacers? Shouldn’t that caliber of talent be able to carry a team to the NBA Finals on their broad shoulders without a handful of rebounds and mid-range jumpers? Evidently not, judging by the popular opinion.

Today’s conventional wisdom seems to insist you have to have a bona fide Big 3 to compete in the playoffs, even in round two in the East let alone any final round series. This is flawed, a cop out, excuses. Who is Indiana’s third wheel then? If you can’t beat the Pacers with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade you honestly don’t deserve to sniff the conference finals let alone the promised land.

Not that Chris Bosh wasn’t a valuable piece and a tremendous loss to the cause, but seriously, he was that critical to success? Your entire Finals run, hyped with proud public promises, hinged on Chris Bosh? Chris freaking Bosh?!

Under normal circumstances Bosh’s replacement, Udonis Haslem, would more than cover up the loss of the Boshosaurus, but this season has been anything but usual, and that goes as much for Haslem as anyone. His string of buckets late in a Game 4 win may have seemed out of the norm, but really he was simply due for a progression to the mean after the horrendous season he’s had. Really, he’s been quite a capable mid-range shooter throughout his career until this oddball one, every bit as comparable as Bosh there.

Courtesy HoopData:

Anomalies abound from 3-23 feet between these two players in the last two seasons, but on average it shakes out pretty close. From 3-9 feet for their careers  Bosh is a mere 1.8% better from the floor than Haslem, and it lessens as the floor stretches out in the mid-range, 1.5% difference from 10-15 feet, and only 0.2% apart from 16-23 feet. The effects felt from the loss of Bosh in the mid-range game should be minimal, especially if Haslem does what he’s shown he’s quite capable of from there as he did the other night.

Defensively, of the ten most used lineups on the floor this season, according to BasketballValue,  Haslem appears in four of the best five. To Bosh’s credit, he appears in three of those top five as well, and Joel Anthony, who will primarily cover for those minutes at center that Bosh had been, two. So defensively, the loss of Bosh should be negligible as well, at least on paper. Erik Spoelstra’s squads are well known to be stingy on defense, and Bosh’s name rarely comes up in those conversations. Defensive adjustments shouldn’t be a huge factor.

Has Bosh’s value really evolved so much that he went from dinosaur status to missing link status?

For his career, normalized per-36 minutes, Haslem is an 11.4 points/9.5 rebounds guy, clearly not enough to put a couple of future Hall of Famers over the top, as these former championship third wheels show us at BasketballReference.

Oh wait…

Everything is a Referendum on LeBron James

ELIAS: LeBron is the 1st player to put up at least 40-18-9 in a playoff game in over half a century. (Elgin Baylor, '61)
@tomhaberstroh
Tom Haberstroh

 

Forty. Eighteen. Nine.

An absolutely Herculean feat. No one’s done it in the playoffs in the modern era. Chances are, no one will again. LeBron James reminded us why he won his third MVP award this season. He reminded us why he’s compared to Michael Jordan. And Oscar Robertson. And a linebacker. And a freight train. A MONSTAR. A supernova.

He played 44 minutes, and the Heat needed him on the floor every second of that time to stay in the game. They were floundering in the first half. It took them nearly 5 minutes to score their first points of the game (a layup by LeBron), with missed shots and turnovers fueling the Pacers’ offensive fire. The Pacers missed a bunch of open and contested long 2s and 3s, but with Wade only scoring 8 points in the half and the Pacers being up 8 at halftime, it looked liked Indiana was headed back to Miami to close out this series. But then, the second half started.

Thirty. Nine. Six.

For the third time in the playoffs, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade outscored the opposing team after halftime.
@tomhaberstroh
Tom Haberstroh

Wade woke up in the 2nd half. 22 points on some tough shots (“tough shots” are better known as shots that go in, but as you’re watching you say “there’s no way that… HOLY CRAP!”). James and Wade decided to remind everyone watching why they wanted to team up together in the Summer of 2010. In the end, Miami figured out how to get Indiana’s bigs in foul trouble and abuse the paint. Between LeBron and DWade, they had 22 Free Throw attempts. And really, that’s what makes this Miami team so hard to beat. The top-heavy talent is something to fear and admire, sure. But when it’s a close game, these two guys know how to get to the line. More often than not, they deserve the shots they take. But the important part about their game is that the know how to control the tempo, create the opportunity to get a little banged up, and march up to the line to make (most of) their shots. Gets them some points. Gets guys like Hibbert, West, and Amundson in foul trouble.

Just one more thing…

LeBron accounted for 16 of those 22 FT attempts. He sacrificed his body this game, playing out of position down low to bring down 18 rebounds and draw 14 fouls. So if LeBron HADN’T scored 12 points at the FT line. And if he hadn’t scored 40 points himself. And if he hadn’t assisted on 22 points. And created six second-chance opportunities. And taken only two two-minute rests the whole game. And if Wade hadn’t woken up from his Indianapolis-induced slumber of the past 3 halves of basketball, then where would the Heat be?

LeBron’s performance was one for the ages. But he’s not supposed to be playing like this. He can do it, obviously, but not all the time. Nor should he try to. Wade HAS to be a part of this process, too. Every time. It cannot be the LeBron show. The desire to spread the responsibility, above all other things, is why he left Cleveland. The Cleveland teams from 2007 onward were successful. They weren’t title-winners, but they were certainly contenders. And why? Because they were LeBron + a ton of role players suited to his strengths. And now? It’s LeBron + one potentially-amazing closer (Wade) + one guy who gets left open and makes everything (Bosh) + leftover role players that had to be scraped together because of salary cap constraints. So far, we’ve seen highlight-reel plays from this team, but little else in the way of excelling beyond the potential of LeBron’s Cavalier teams. LeBron’s giving us all a show. But he shouldn’t.

As much as we love watching him perform like this, our expectations are higher for the collective. The stakes are higher. The pressure is higher. Above all else, we expected something different than just watching a bunch of warm-weather Cavs games. This team was supposed to be different than LeBron’s past teams, but I don’t see it.

This Heat/Pacers series has been a great one so far. Lots of chippiness. Lots of great defense. Lots of ties and lead changes and late game heroics. These are two great teams playing well above everyone’s expectations. People figured the Pacers would be good, but THIS good? No way. And the Heat. Yeah, sure, title favorites blah blah. But when Bosh went down with an injury, everyone figured they were too thin to go on. And here we are, a great series, with two great teams, and one standout superstar in LeBron. It makes for some exciting and close basketball games, but we were promised something different.

2012 NBA Playoffs, Heat vs. Pacers Lineup Analysis And Reasons Why Miami Will Win In 6 Games

As the 2012 NBA Playoffs finally move beyond the first round, the real fun begins. Individual matchup become more compelling, the stakes continue to rise and the quality of basketball ascends as lesser teams make their fishing plans. I’ve hit on all my predicted winners except the injury-ravaged Chicago Bulls in the first-round, and you can check out those picks and my deeper analysis of the full field on Hardwood Paroxysm here for the Eastern Conference and here for the Western Conference. Now here’s my look at the second-round Eastern Conference matchup between the Miami Heat and the Indiana Pacers.

A New Lineup Analysis Tool (.GIF File On 20-Second Intervals)

As you might expect, the Miami Heat are the superior team. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are the two best players in the series, and it isn’t even close. Shocking, right? Anyways, here is my attempt at creating a lineup analysis tool where players are compared to the average values at their position (20+ min/gm positional averages are used). For example, say Player X has an Assist Rate of 20.43, while the average NBA SF (20+ min) has an AR of 17.8. I express the value as it relates to the positional average, so Player X’s Assist Rate is 14.7% better than average (which would point up 14.7 on the graph). Here is how Miami Heat players compare to their counterparts on the Indiana Pacers and NBA averages from 2011-12:

Danny Granger and Paul George certainly have the physical tools to slow down LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but according to NBA.com/Stats the Pacers were a net -16.1 points per 100 possessions (93.9 Off Eff, 110.0 Def Eff) with LeBron on the court in their four regular season matchups and a net -10.7 with Wade on the court. Something tells me Indiana is going to see a lot of both of those guys in this series, so I’m going to treat those stats as a harbinger of death for the Pacers.

One thing that gives me pause about predicting a six-game series win for Miami (aside from the fact that their role players are so weak), is that the Pacers actually had terrific success with their most-used lineup against Miami this season – Collison| George | Granger | Hibbert | West — as that quintet dominated the offensive glass (35.7% offensive rebound rate) and produced a net rating of +9.1 pts / 100 poss in 74 minutes against Miami in the regular season. As you can see above, Hibbert has a clear advantage on the offensive glass against Haslem, and West is slightly better than Bosh in that respect, but James and Wade more than cancel out anything George and Granger bring to the table. Without knowing the exact matchups for that seemingly magical Pacers lineup, I can still tell you that they shot an absurd 48 percent from beyond the arc while on the floor. That feels like fool’s gold to me. One thing that will throw Indy off their game is that Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony will bother Hibbert in the post, disrupting spacing on the arc — Hibbert posted up on 51.9% of his plays this year (0.89 ppp), but Haslem only allowed 0.78 ppp and Anthony limited opponents to 0.75 ppp, according to Synergy Sports.

Advanced Stat Breakdown

One area that provides some hope for Indy is that the Heat have given up one of the highest percentages of shots from beyond the arc to opponents all season long, which could work well for a Pacers team that finished the year as the sixth-best three-point shooting team in the league. If Indy catches fire from long distance, the complexion of the series could change in a hurry. Interestingly, the Pacers hold an advantage in three of the traditional Four Factors on offense, but the most important factor (by far) is eFG% and the Heat are miles ahead in that respect. Perhaps even more importantly, Miami is a top-five defensive team in the NBA and Indiana gets to the rim even less often than an average NBA squad, so it all comes down to the three-point efficiency. James and Wade know the Pacers are hungry to prove they belong, so I fully expect the dynamic duo to rip Indy’s heart out early in the series to prevent things from getting interesting. That’s what stars do in the NBA Playoffs. Sorry Pacers fans.

Prediction: Miami In 6

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com

LeBron James and Other Assorted Love Songs

When I was in AP Biology in high school, my fantastic teacher Mr. Backiel would occasionally favor us with what he termed a “birdwalk.” This basically meant an anecdote or story only tangentially related to what we were supposed to be studying. For example, a story about a whole family who died at Thanksgiving dinner when they ate three-bean salad that had been infected with a bacteria in the canning process. Obviously, these were the best class periods. What follows is a birdwalk of epic proportions*.

With the arrival of the playoffs and another chance at redemption-via-championship for LeBron James, the doubters and the cheerleaders are up in arms. With the Heat trailing as time wound down in Game 4 of the series against the Knicks, James wasn’t the one with the ball in his hand. He didn’t even touch the ball on the final play. For some, it’s just more evidence. They only see him giving up the ball or not asserting himself and concluding that he’s not the equal of Bryant or Michael Jordan. But what if he’s the equal of Eric Clapton?

Seriously. Hear me out. Although not a high school phenom like James, Clapton joined the Yardbirds in 1963 at the age of 18 but after the Yardbirds scored a hit with “For Your Love” in 1965, they began pushing their sound more towards pop and Clapton left to join John Mayall’s Bluesbreakers, with whom he recorded Blues Breakers with Eric Clapton. The album showcases Clapton’s prodigious guitar talent and contains several of what remain his finest guitar solos on tracks like “Steppin’ Out” and “Have You Heard.” As it was with LeBron James’ play for St. Vincent-St. Mary High School in Akron, what became known as “The Beano Album” (because Clapton is reading a copy of the comic Beano on the cover) brought Clapton to national prominence. Some of James’ high school games were broadcast on national television, and it was difficult not to see what he could become, looking like a man among boys with tattoos covered up by decals. He seemed like the total package, in much the way that Clapton appeared ready to become and stay the best guitarist on the planet for some time.

Given his complete physical dominance of his high school competition, it’s possible that the notion of whether or not James had the “killer instinct” he’s broadly felt to lack never really came up. It was perhaps just assumed. But Clapton’s greatest shortcoming was put on display midway through the second side of the Bluesbreakers’ debut when he took the mic from Mayall to perform Robert Johnson’s “Rambling On My Mind.” It’s not a terrible performance or anything; as people should remember when it comes to James, the average aspects of Clapton’s musical repertoire are far better than 95% of the population’s. But in comparison to his muscular, ragged and often terrifying guitar work, his voice is tentative, polite.

When Clapton left the Bluesbreakers in 1966 to form Cream with drummer Ginger Baker and bassist Jack Bruce, his reputation as a world-class guitarist only grew. In 1967, a scrawled “CLAPTON IS GOD” infamously appeared on the wall of an Underground station in Islington. His reputation as a game-changer was written almost from the start. And so it went with LeBron James, who notched 25 points, 9 assists and 6 rebounds in his NBA debut. But while Cream’s star rose on the backs of the combined effort and virtuosity of Bruce, Baker and Clapton, James’ Cleveland Cavaliers endured two lackluster seasons, missing out on the playoffs twice before advancing to the Eastern Conference Semifinals in his third year and losing to the Detroit Pistons in seven games. During James’ first few years in Cleveland, there was little opportunity for anyone to question his heart simply because he wasn’t in a position to make a difference to his team in the playoffs. Although Jack Bruce was undeniably the lead singer of Cream and a fabulously talented vocalist, Clapton’s confidence in his own voice improved with Cream and he stepped up to sing lead on many of Cream’s best-known songs, including “Strange Brew,” “Badge,” “Crossroads” and co-lead on the biggest hit, “Sunshine of Your Love.” It’s telling that on the live version of “Crossroads” from Wheels of Fire that Bruce introduces Clapton at the end of the tune as “Eric Clapton, lead … vocals.” That pause there says a lot about how Clapton was thought of at the time: a guitarist first, vocalist second.

By now it should be clear that there’s more than one problem with the analogy I’m working with. The most glaring one is that the goal in professional sports is very clear cut: a championship is what marks a player as great. It’s a lot more muddy in the musical world. A Grammy? Cream didn’t win a Grammy until 2006 and that was a Lifetime Achievement Award. Jimi Hendrix, Queen, Led Zeppelin, The Who and many, many others have never won a Grammy. Sales? Cream’s third album, Wheels of Fire, was the first double-album to go platinum. And yet Cream were only together a little over two years before they broke up at the height of their powers in 1968. A large part of it was the ongoing contentiousness between Jack Bruce and  Ginger Baker (which stretched back to their time in Cream-precursor The Graham Bond Organisation), but Clapton was also growing tired of the giant expectations that were being inspired by the group’s success and the fact that they barely listened to one another while playing live. To all outsiders, it must have looked like Cream had won whatever you could call the championship of music, but to Clapton remained musically dissatisfied and so the band called it quits in 1969.

Their loss in the NBA Finals to the champion San Antonio Spurs in 2006-07 inspired a similar rebuild by the Cleveland Cavaliers. At the trade deadline in 2008, the team shipped out players including Donyell Marshall, Shannon Brown, Drew Gooden, and Larry Hughes in exchange for Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, Joe Smith, and Ben Wallace. But neither this lineup, nor any of the ones that were tweaked for the two years after (which included bringing in players like Antawn Jamison and Shaquille O’Neal), could climb the mountain and bring home the NBA Championship. It was over these three years, from the 2007-08 season to the 2009-10 season, that the rumbles about James’ inability to lead his team to a championship started. Even as his personal numbers grew to near-legendary levels, he continued to falter on the league’s biggest stage—the playoffs—and the storm clouds of his departure began to loom.

In spite of his misgivings about the course that Cream’s career had taken, Clapton went from one supergroup to another in 1969. He’d long admired singer/keyboardist Steve Winwood and so he approached him about forming the group that would become Blind Faith. Winwood was, in a way, the Shaquille O’Neal of this analogy—an experienced player with his own success brought in as a counterweight. And as it went with the re-tooled Cavaliers, the expectations for Blind Faith were skyhigh immediately. When the group (with Ginger Baker once again on drums and Rick Grech on bass) made their concert debut in Hyde Park on June 7, 1969, it was in front of 100,000 people. As James discovered when Shaq came to the Cavs, it’s never as simple as just plugging people in. Blind Faith only had a handful of songs and the set devolved into lengthy jams—one of the things Clapton had wanted to leave behind with Cream—and the crowd roared their approval. When the group embarked on a U.S. tour in the summer of 1969, there were riots, and Clapton found himself a victim of the same kind of success and pressures that had brought down Cream. He had sought to spread the responsibility out (as a singer, he had once again retreated, with Winwood handling all the vocals on the group’s self-titled debut), but the expectations had only increased. In somewhat the same way, all the additions and mini-rebuilds in Cleveland had been undertaken for the purpose of building a supporting cast around James to help him share the burden, but every addition of a former All-Star or future Hall-of-Famer only made the team’s failures in the playoffs more acute.

And so James left Cleveland in a very public and fairly brutal way, joining up with his friends Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade on the Miami Heat. There’s no end to the ways this has been dissected and discussed, but it seems the end of Blind Faith was altogether more of a whimper than a bang. During the group’s only American tour, Clapton struck up a friendship with the opening act, Delaney & Bonnie. With the dissolution of the ill-fated supergroup, Clapton joined that group as a sideman, eventually using their rhythm section—bassist Carl Radle, drummer Jim Gordon, and keyboardist/vocalist Bobby Whitlock—to start Derek and the Dominos.

It is at this moment of their stories’ greatest confluence that they also separate, however. If James joining the Heat was the ultimate abdication of his anointed role as King James, a tacit recognition that he’s simply happier playing with other talented players, then it’s indeed very similar to Clapton’s sinking into anonymity with Delaney & Bonnie and going somewhat pseudonymous in Derek and the Dominos. (There’s even a guy named Duane/Dwyane to play the foil in each situation.) But James’ chapter with the Heat is still a work in progress, and it’s just possible that the path that Clapton took is instructive.

Returning to Clapton’s singing—his early Achilles heel—it’s interesting to note that in spite of his shrinking from the spotlight as a personality, both Layla and Other Assorted Love Songs and the self-titled debut he recorded just before forming Derek and the Dominos have him doing more singing and songwriting than he had ever done before. It’s as if he needed to pull back from his identity as a guitar god to become a more fully balanced and musical artist. On Layla, he’s grown into his voice substantially. He uses its softer curves ably, not striving for bluesy swagger on plaintive songs like opener “I Looked Away,” but also bending his desperation (he was in love with George Harrison’s wife Patti Boyd at the time) into the devastatingly heartbroken chorus of “Bell Bottom Blues” or the frantic worry of “Why Does Love Got To Be So Sad.” And so, weirdly, retreating from his role as the slashing, technically gifted lead guitarist of the Bluesbreakers, Cream, and Blind Faith allowed him to refashion himself as a more complete musician, allowed him to find his voice.

In only his second year with the Heat, the jury remains out on LeBron James’ evolution. But it doesn’t seem impossible that he doesn’t in fact need to become more aggressive, more of a killer, more of a clutch performer, whatever that means. Maybe he just needs to become clutch enough to win a championship and our understanding of him will change. Consider what happened to our understanding of Kevin Garnett’s game when he went from perpetual playoff disappointment on the Timberwolves to NBA Champion on the Celtics. Suddenly, his inability to take over games didn’t seem like such a liability, and it was his defense that became his defining characteristic. For the first five or six years of his career, Clapton was known as a guitarist first and a singer a distant second, but since the early 70s, that’s gradually changed. “Tears in Heaven” is, after all, not a fret-burning workout. Even so, Clapton’s voice is still not the equal technically of Winwood’s or Baker’s or countless other singers. But he’s learned to make it work for him as he’s grown into it. For all the outward success he experienced early in his career, Clapton ultimately had to step back from it and from the expectations it created to become the musician he wanted to be.

From such a young age, it looked like nothing could stop James, and he certainly hasn’t done himself any favors by often buying into the hype and marketing. But maybe he has to do more growing into his game than we give him credit for. He hasn’t experienced that outward success, hasn’t won those championships we expect of him—not yet. But maybe he doesn’t get there by being more than he is. Maybe he’s enough already and closer than we think.

Or maybe he needs to fall in love with George Harrison’s wife.

* About halfway through writing this, my boy Eric Maroun (who’s named for Eric Clapton, by the way), directed me to this post from last June which posits in a broad fashion the same thing I cover here. My hope is that we’ve got different enough takes to not make this redundant.

The Hardwood Paroxysm Awards: Rookies, FAST Don’t Lie, and THE Perimeter Stopper

Because there can never be enough awards, acronyms, recognition, or roundtables, HP proudly presents the HPAs. In true HP style, the Matty goes to…

Widely considered a “weak” draft class coming in, there’s been several nice surprises creating more depth from the Class of 2011 than expected. In hindsight, who gets the Matty for Most Underrated Rookie Coming In?

Jared Dubin: It’s got to be Isaiah Thomas, right? The guy was the 60th pick in the draft and now he’s a starting point guard and one of the most fun players to watch in the entire league. He’s not just a niche player like his size may suggest, either. Thomas can get into the lane, finish over the giants who await him there (61.3 at-rim FG% as of this writing), dish it to open teammates and hold his own on defense as well.

Amin Vafa: I know he was #1 overall, and he’s going to win ROY by a landslide, but I have to say Kyrie Irving. A lot of people thought he wasn’t going to cut it with his 11 games of NCAA experience. And no one, especially not anyone in the Cavs organization, thought he was going to be ready to be a franchise guy from the get-go. The Cavs are looking good in the years to come, thanks in large part to him.

Scott Leedy: Is it possible to say Ricky Rubio? It feels like so much time passed after the initial “OH MY GOD RICKY RUBIO IS GONNA BE SO GOOD” phase that by the time he was set to arrive in the states most people had written him off. Many questioned his Euro stats, his inability to shoot, and inconsistent playing time both for the Spanish National team and his Euro-league squad. Once Ricky showed up and started dropping incredible pass after incredible pass it became clear the initial hype was more than warranted.

Andrew Lynch:  I’m going to preface this DDL-style and say that every player in the league is rated, not over- or underrated. With that said, I’m going with the Manimal, Kenneth Faried. He leads all rookies who have played more than 500 minutes this season in WS/48 (.201), and he’s so “underrated” that he struggled in the early going to even get consistent playing time. His energy (cliché alert!) is infectious, and it manifests itself in his rebounding. His 19.3% Total Rebound Percentage is formidable, and his 15.9% Offensive Rebound Percentage is second in the league only to Nikola Pekovic.

Anytime you’re the man right behind Pek, you get my vote — for pretty much anything.

Sean Highkin: If the 2011 draft were done over again, Isaiah Thomas wouldn’t make it out of the lottery, let alone fall all the way to the last pick of the last round. The fact that he won Rookie of the Month the same month as the no. 1 overall pick, Kyrie Irving, says a lot.

Best Offensive Rookie?

JD: Kyrie Irving. Ricky Rubio was giving him a run for his money, but then the Basketball Gods decided they hated all of us. Irving is a spectacular, hyper-efficient scoring talent who is underrated in his ability to run an offense as well. If the Cavs had anyone outside Irving and – ugh – Antawn Jamison who could score, he would have averaged well more than 5.7 assists per game. For much of the season, Kyrie was seriously challenging to go 50/40/90 with his percentages, which would have just been unreal. As it is, he’s just the 4th rookie ever to go 45/40/85. This kid is special.

AV: Isaiah Thomas. He is so freakin’ fast, and he’s fearless getting to the rim. After having an absurdly dominant big-man who can score at will in the paint, I think having a super-quick small guard who can score at will in the paint is an awesome offensive weapon in a pinch. Play broken? No matter! Let the little guy run it through! Analysis!

SL: As good as Rubio was before the injury, it has to be Kyrie Irving. He’s relentless and already has an incredibly ability to get to the rim. Furthermore he’s had a couple spectacular late game performances that are rarely seen in a rookie, let alone at point guard, the league’s most difficult and complex position. Oh, and let’s not forget that spin move, what a glorious spin move it is indeed.

AL: At the risk of invoking the wrath of Conrad, I’m going with Isaiah Thomas. My inclination was to pick Kyrie Irving (duh), but he and Thomas are actually tied for the lead among rookies in offensive win shares, at 3.2. He also just outpaces Irving in Points Per Possession (per Synergy Sports), .96 to .94. Thomas has done it in slightly fewer minutes than Irving, so he barely gets the nod here. Please don’t hurt me, Cavs fans.

SH: Has to be Kyrie. I knew he’d be good, but I didn’t think he’d be this good this fast. Everything about his play and the way he shepherds the Cavs’ offense is remarkably poised, especially when you consider he only had 11 games of NCAA experience.

Most Impactful Rookie Defender?

Via Super Cool Zs, Zach Harper-Jared Dubin, DDL

JD: YES. My blatant campaign to give an award to Iman Shumpert worked! I’m shocked none of you called me out on this in the e-mail chain. Shump, along with Tyson Chandler and Jared Jeffries, has been one of the main catalysts in the Knicks’ rising from a bottom 10 defense in the league to a top 5 one. Though he needs some work on team defensive concepts like defending the pick-and-roll and staying home on spot-up shooters, he’s become an absolute lock-down 1-on-1 defender already. Through Friday, players isolating on Shumpert made a field goal ONLY ONE PERCENT MORE OFTEN THAN THEY TURNED THE BALL OVER. How high is this kid’s ceiling defensively? #ShumpShumpShrug

AV: Rubio. I don’t think anyone expected him to be such a fantastic defender, but ask Adelman and any attentive Wolves fan what the defense has been like since Rubio’s been out, and they’ll tell you that he is sorely missed. Dude’s a phenom, and I’m so glad we finally get to see him in action (well, aside from the injury and stuff).

SL: After what he did to Derrick Rose on Sunday it has to be Iman Shumpert. Shump already has some of the best hands I’ve ever seen in this league, combine that with a relentless, bull dog like attitude, and the requisite foot speed to stay in front of some of the league’s quickest guards and you have a lock down defender in the making.

AL: Shumptastic voyage is the people’s champion in this category. …Jared represents “the people,” right?

But seriously, Shump is the only rookie whose defensive win shares is 2.0 or higher, which gives him a claim to the title of “best rookie defender.” Combine that with the impact that he’s had — alongside the acquisition of Tyson Chandler and the Phoenician rebirth of Jared Jeffries — on the Knicks’ defensive improvement, and this is Shump’s Matty to lose.

SH: Iman Shumpert. Outside of Tyson Chandler, he’s the first guy that comes to mind when talking about the improvements the Knicks have made on defense from last season to this one.

Editor’s note: Is this the birth of “Shumping”? ™ WaitWUT…

Gail Goodrich recently said, “Certainly the game today, the players are quicker and faster. I think they’re even smarter. How did the game change? We averaged 121 points a game. You can’t average that [today] because the defense is back.” Who reels in a Matty for Fleet And Swift Transition Player of the Year?

JD: LeBron James. He leads the league in both points off turnovers and fast break points per game by a healthy margin and doubles as the most intimidating player in the league to stare down as he’s leading the break. His athleticism, finishing ability and insane court vision make him damn near impossible to guard in the open court.

AV: As much as it pains me to say it, this has to be a tie between Wade and James, right? God, that break is crazy good. It ain’t called a Flying Death Machine for nothing. Honorable mention goes to Leandro Barbosa, since I love picturing him running ahead of a bunch of other fast objects as depicted in The Free Darko Macrophenomal Pro Basketball Almanac.

SL: I have to give this award to the combination of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James. I’m not sure there’s anything more breathtaking in sports right now then when those two are barreling down upon a helpless opponent, building a head of steam, creating the ever powerful anticipation that comes along with the seemingly limitless possibility they carry in their every move.

AL: I AM THE LEBRON JAMES TRAIN OF STEEL, AND I AM HERE FOR YOUR TRANSITIONS. ALL OF THEM.

SH: It’s the predictable answer and the same one everyone else has given, but LeBron is on a different level in transition from anyone else in the league.

Tony Allen sweeps grit

How about your Best of the Backcourt Stoppers?

JD: Tony Allen and it’s really not all that close.

AV: I’ll say Tony Allen, but mostly because he growled at James Herbert.

SL: Tony Allen, seriously just watch him for one night, the guy is a relentless, ball-hawking, pain the the opposing team’s ass. Might LeBron and Iggy be better? Sure it’s possible, but for now at least I’ll take the NBA twitter kingpin every day of the week.

AL: Does Kobe count? Because, you know, he stops the Lakers offense all the time!

Jokes, Lakers fans. Jokes. It’s Tony Allen. And I!!! think he would agree!

SH: The best)) perimeter defender is! the one who )grits and grinds the most!!!

LeBron James And The Search For The New Land

Photo by i k o on Flickr

LeBron James is roundly mocked for a wealth of shortcomings: his unwillingness to take the last shot, his hairline, his poor counting skills when it comes to championships he has actually won. But one of the most damning is the idea that his desire to play alongside Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami is an affront to former NBA greats who would never consider playing with men they viewed as rivals. Shortly after James took his talents to the Heat, no less a player than Michael Jordan himself said, “There’s no way, with hindsight, I would’ve ever called up Larry [Bird], called up Magic [Johnson] and said, ‘Hey, look, let’s get together and play on one team’ … In all honesty, I was trying to beat those guys.”

Now, competition is inherent in sports. Without it, sports doesn’t exist. But to understand competition in sports as a simple monolithic urge is shortsighted. It’s even shortsighted to only consider sports as only a competition. Isn’t there also a measure of collaboration, of collective improvisation–particularly in basketball–that allows for James’ idea of teaming with the players he feels most akin to? Of all the major sports, basketball is the one most consistently linked to jazz, but jazz wasn’t always a model of understanding and collaboration either.

In the early days of jazz, cornetist King Oliver played with handkerchief over the valves of his instrument and even removed titles from the music sheets on the bandstand to discourage copycats. What began as cutting contests between stride piano players evolved into the practice of cutting heads on stage, with young musicians proving their mettle on the bandstand as veterans called out standards in strange keys and at unreal tempos. And it might be apocryphal, but there’s a story about a young Jackie McLean (now a jazz legend) finally getting up the nerve to ask Miles Davis if he could sit in on a tune. When the teenaged McLean approached Davis at a gig, the trumpeter turned to him, looked him up and down and said, “I’ll kill you, motherfucker.”

It’s no secret that Davis was an often abrasive and cutthroat musician, having grown up in St. Louis in a culture rife with not only competition, but racial issues. In Miles: The Autobiography, he tells the story of Clyde Higgins:

Back during those days a lot of bands that played for white people liked to hire light-skinned musicians, and so Clyde was too dark for them. Eugene said when Clyde went for the audition and told Lunceford he was a saxophone player, everybody laughed at him and started calling him “the little monkey.” They gave him the toughest music they had in their book to play. Clyde, being the great musician that he was, ran right through it like it wasn’t nothing. At least, that’s what Eugene said. When Clyde got through playing, all them cats in Lunceford’s band had their mouths hanging open. So Lunceford said to them, “Well, how y’all like that?”

What Miles ultimately came to be known for was not his sheer instrumental prowess, though, in spite of the lessons he learned in his youth. It’s telling that he ended up having McLean on his album Dig at just nineteen years of age and perhaps his greatest legacy was his ability to create groups of players that moved the music forward through innovative collaboration, specifcally his two great quintets (Davis, John Coltrane (ts), Philly Joe Jones (d), Red Garland (p), and Jimmy Chambers (b) in the first and Davis, Wayne Shorter (ts), Tony Williams (d), Herbie Hancock (p), and Ron Carter (b) in the second). Davis realized early on that the way to produce the best music, the best entertainment, was to assemble the people most capable of driving each other to new heights of creativity as a unit. If this meant hiring performers who were as good as or even better than him as players, then so be it. (Most of the above players were””Davis was a visionary leader and expert of understatement, not a technical wizard.) Duke Ellington ran his band in much the same way, working with dozens of the greatest names in jazz from Ben Webster to Coleman Hawkins to Jimmy Blanton to Cootie Williams.

Jazz, then, has long struck a balance between competition and collaboration. If at first it was tipped more heavily in favor of competition, it began to tip more in the direction of collaboration through the middle of the twentieth century as it grew in legitimacy as an art form.

Is it possible that the team that’s been assembled in Miami is pointing the way towards basketball that’s tipped the balance towards collaboration? As much as a player like Jordan or Kobe Bryant are motivated by a mindset that demands they destroy all opposition (witness Jordan’s Hall of Fame induction speech, where he’s still grinding axes, even after he’s been crowned without serious reservation the greatest player to ever play the game), it’s possible that players like James, Wade, and Bosh are more intrigued by the creative possibilities that teaming up entail than the personal competitiveness of an earlier age.

Before going any further, let me draw a couple lines. First, there’s a difference between team competition and individual competition. A team can be completely focused on beating an opposing team and be in part driven by competition within the team to play better. This happens all the time in music where soloists drive each other to greater heights; two great players don’t bring out the best in each other by being understanding, but rather by being demanding. Cooperation and, by extension, collaboration tend to carry with them a connotation of weakness, of not being strong enough to go it alone. But what if we consider collaboration in basketball terms to be more along the lines of sharpening knives against whetstones, of forging steel with iron and heat, of cutting diamonds with diamonds?

One of the most oft-repeated canards about teams with multiple shooters is that there’s only one ball and not enough shots to go around. Who’s going to have the ball when the game is on the line? But this question presupposes the idea that who scores the winning basket should somehow matter as much, if not more, than that basket happening in the first place. For James to be considered in the elite company of players like Jordan under those terms, he must be the one to take the big shot. By that metric, he’s a failure. But does he even care about that metric? His pass to Udonis Haslem against the Pacers suggests he doesn’t.

It wouldn’t be the first time James’ actions suggested he’s more interested in shifting the paradigm than playing the game the way we want. As ill-considered as “The Decision” was (and boy, was it ill-considered from a lot of perspectives), the process as a whole was to a large extent about James asserting control over his career. The move itself””that is, the decision to leave his hometown team for less money to play with, instead of against, some of the league’s most talented players””was misunderstood as a failure of will or heart, when in fact it was in many ways a refutation of our accepted understanding of those things.

If we consider the side of basketball that is entertainment and accept the idea that that side can be extended into the realm of expressive creativity, there’s hardly a better example of what good collaboration can yield than Wade’s full-court lob to James for the alley-oop layup from last season. And this season, the Heat have appeared more indomitable than last, with James having a career year that should by all rights earn him the MVP, despite being on a team that should theoretically be limiting his ability to be statistically impressive (he currently has the highest season PER of all-time).

Understand, though, that forsaking individual glory to collaborate with your peers is a lock for success, even on its own terms. Witness the New York Knicks. On paper (or in NBA 2K12, for that matter), the lineup of Jeremy Lin, J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler looks like it should be a beast. But instead of an interlocking set of collaborators who understand how to make the most of each other, we have a crowd of players who don’t fit. Chandler takes up space that Stoudemire used to terrorize on the offensive end of the floor, Stoudemire fouls up Chandler’s ability to pick and roll with Lin, Lin’s been shackled by Anthony’s demands for iso sets. In jazz terms, this is the all-star collaboration where the sum is not greater than the parts.

Lee Morgan’s Search for the New Land is the New York Knicks of jazz albums. Recorded in 1964 but released in 1966, the album looks like a sure thing. Or at least, it did to me when I first found out about it. It had all of my favorite players from the Blue Note stable: Wayne Shorter on tenor sax, Grant Green on guitar, Morgan on trumpet, Herbie Hancock on piano, Reggie Workman on bass and the severely underrated Billy Higgins on drums. The presence of Green and Shorter alone on one album was enough to get me excited about it. But while it has its moments, it doesn’t really come together. The title track is expansive and abstract, but goes nowhere. Morgan and Green, more at home in traditional jazz settings, seem lost. On the steadier, soulful tracks like “The Joker,” Shorter seems wasted. In places, it cooks; “Mr. Kenyatta” is particularly successful, with Hancock’s chordal stabs in the A section outlining a more unresolved tonal territory than the more trad progression of the B section. There, the blend works””consider it the winning streak the Knicks embarked on when Lin took the helm.

What’s weird about the album as a whole and its averageness is that Green performed well on some other more ambitious or angular albums like his own Solid and organist Larry Young’s Into Somethin’. And Shorter killed it in Art Blakey’s Jazz Messengers on classics like “A Night in Tunisia.” They weren’t limited by what could be considered to be their musical wheelhouses but for whatever reason, it just didn’t gel on Search for the New Land.

And that’s the thing about collaboration and its balance with competition, whether it’s in music or sports. Looking at a team as a collaboration is not a way to excuse competitive failure. Rather, it brings its own standards of success that sometimes dovetail with the way we view competition. The Heat’s meltdown in the Finals last year might have looked like a failure of the competitive spirit when assessed by the standard we typically apply to sports. But it was just as much a creative failure, a demonstration that the collaborators didn’t understand each other well enough yet to reach their full potential as a unit. But if James and company ever start hitting like Miles’ second great quintet””a unit that could push the music in any direction they damn well pleased””they might well be unstoppable.

One Round to Rule Them All

Photo by Nrbelex on Flickr

When the lineup for this year’s Slam Dunk Contest was announced, there was nothing but crickets coming from casual basketball fans. No Blake Griffin? No LeBron James? More dedicated followers of the NBA were maybe less surprised. Defending your dunk title has become a bit passé. And rumors about James’ participation fly every year, but he has little to gain by entering and winning and much more by losing. Getting into the dunk contest and falling to anyone might be a bigger misstep than The Decision.

But even the most enthusiastic basketball fans groaned at the field. Derrick Williams? He’s caught some nice alley-oops from Ricky Rubio, but he strikes me as a game dunker, not a showcase dunker. Paul George had that one great breakaway reverse where he pulled it down between his legs, but that’s about it. Chase Budinger’s dunks would best be described as workmanlike. And lastly, Iman Shumpert (who misses nearly as many dunks as he makes) bowed out to be replaced by the wildly better Jeremy Evans. But Evans is 6’9” and bigger guys get less credit for jumping high. It just doesn’t look as cool. His best dunk so far was called an offensive foul.

So why is there any reason for positivity? For one, the new single round format might actually work. Call me crazy, but the multi-round format of previous years has ruined what could have been some great dunk contests. Take Andre Iguodala’s performance in the 2006 Slam Dunk Contest. His alley-oop from Allen Iverson caught off the back of the backboard was probably the best dunk from that year’s event, but it came in the penultimate round and Iguodala ultimately lost to the diminutive Nate Robinson in a dunk off. Robinson’s dunk over Spud Webb signaled the turn of the contest towards a weirdly meta, prop-based approach to the dunk contest. Plus it took him 14 attempts to put it in. Iguodala was, in short, robbed.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6z9-l4hnMM

Two years later, Dwight Howard took the crown with the most prop-driven performance up until that point, but Gerald Green’s opening round dunk got lost in the shuffle. It’s a shame, because it was slick and creative.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1pXEumOGOU

But in subsequent rounds, Green showed he couldn’t come up with anything to top himself, much less any of the other contestants. The best dunk contest participants, from Michael Jordan to Vince Carter, have shown a sense of showmanship that extends beyond the individual dunks to the arc created over the whole contest. It’s kind of cognitively dissonant with the spirit of dunking in the game, which relies more on chance, timing, and opportunity than advance planning.

So there’s a chance that this single round format will level the field a bit more, resulting in good early dunks carrying more weight. But on the other hand, the NBA ditching the judges and awarding the trophy based solely on fan vote is thoroughly wrongheaded. The judge system has had its own problems (as when Howard’s truly impressive sticker dunk was misunderstood by them in the moment), but it’s impossible to see how a fan vote doesn’t lead to something that values flash or name recognition over an honest appraisal of dunks. On the bright side, no one knows who these contestants are. Seriously, this field’s about as open as the field of Republican presidential candidates last November.

But mixed feelings over the Slam Dunk Contest are nothing new. The truly revelatory performances are almost always surprises, which is perhaps in the dunk’s very nature. Like humor, a good dunk thrives on being unexpected, whether that means breaking out of the flow and rhythm of a regular game or coming up with something that’s never been seen before in the contest. The real key to a great dunk contest performance, though, is not only doing something startlingly new, but rather finding a balance between athleticism, showmanship, and, strangely, comprehensibility. Green’s cupcake dunk, Howard’s sticker dunk, and Javale McGee’s cradle under-the-backboard dunk all suffered for not being as immediately graspable as Dr. J’s free throw line dunk or Vince Carter’s through-the-legs alley-oop. Given the tremendous athleticism of players in the NBA now and the switch to fan-voting, it’s likely that the winning dunk won’t be the most impressive, but rather, the one that communicates the best.

Stinkface Chronicles: Griffin and the Greats

"Where'd you learn to dunk? Finishing school?" via imaginaryyear.com

With the exception of Kobe Bryant’s three-game 40-point run — his middle finger to Father Time — Ricky Rubio going all “Pistolero” on the NBA and The Jeremy Lin Experience (Have you ever really been experienced?), this truncated NBA season hasn’t provided a the range of exquisite flavors an 82-game season does.

As opposed to the grind of a full season (which I don’t mind because it allows players, teams and story lines to develop), this lockout-truncated season has been more meat grinder. It has been more about what’s missing. First, it was the league itself. Now, it’s the players’ health. By the end, it may be their sanity because squeezing 66 games into just under 130 days is plain crazy.

That’s not to say there haven’t been sublime NBA moments this season. Considering these are The Stinkface Chronicles, you’ll note that I take note of those that have been above the rim. Here are the five I’ve enjoyed most so far.

DeAndre Jordan on Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, Dec. 19, 2011

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gDMERiw9Vs

This one happened during the preseason in December, which just goes to show you how weird this season has been. But this flush on the Lakers’ formidable frontline not only provided a glimpse into the denizens of Lob City (ironic, though it was a bounce pass off a pick-and-roll) but also harkened back to another preseason perpetration of Staples-on-Staples crime and the first entry in The Stinkface Chronicles. The Clippers’ bench — and Lakers haters — took great glee in this one, though Lakers’ fans could counter that the Clips should have been whistled for a technical foul for having 12 men on the court after Jordan’s flush.

4. Vince Carter on Emeka Okafor, Jan. 7, 2012

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efxVcT7GpDk

It’s vintage Vince, the greatest in-game dunker in NBA history and it’s beautiful. Also, that’s the fastest Brendan Haywood has moved in quite some time, even with Delonte West riding shotgun.

3. Dwyane Wade on Landry Fields, Jan. 27, 2012

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEsQm3cxw2A

Wade shows Fields the ball, loops it around Fields’ noggin and then slams said ball on said noggin’. Euro-steppin’.

2. LeBron James on/over John Lucas III, Jan. 29, 2012

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvjjEtjwKHE

Here’s a little bit of trivia for you: who was the announcer when Vince Carter unleashed “Le Dunk du Morte“? On the US broadcast, it was Mike Breen, who had a similar reaction to Bron’s dunk as Doug Collins’ did to Vince’s. Breen chuckles a little like Santa Claus — “Hohohoho” — as he should because these two dunks were the best gifts any dunk connoisseur could receive. (An aside, when I saw LeBron’s slam, all I could think of was Collins’ “he jumped over his heeeeaaad” commentary.)

1. Blake Griffin on Kendrick Perkins, Jan. 30, 2012

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w_Vy0lDk_A

I rate this slightly ahead of LeBron’s dunk because Lucas didn’t see it coming while Perkins knew full well what he was getting into. Perkins’ act of engagement (and aiding his rise by graciously providing his chest as a step stool) helped make this the dunk* of the season … thus far. So, we thank you, Kendrick.

As for Griffin’s full-fledged assault on Perkins’ puss, we can’t call it the greatest dunk of all-time. That belongs to Vince in 2000. I’ll also argue it doesn’t belong in the Top 10* on two points: One, it had a precedent, specifically Griffin’s throwdown on Timofey Mozgov in the 2010-11 season; and, two: neither were technically dunks as Griffin threw both into the rim instead of grabbing the rim. While I won’t be too much of a Grinch to give the plays their due, I can’t put either into the greatest of all time because of it. What follows is a list of my favorite all-time dunks in an NBA game. Make it yours, because, really, you can’t go wrong when you reference them.

FAVORITE IN-GAME DUNKS OF ALL-TIME (PRE-2011-12 EDITION)

Amar’e Stoudemire on Michael Olowokandi

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mbLdZlQC1U&feature=fvst

This dunk is the genesis of The Stinkface Chronicles. We thank thee, Amar’e and you as well, Starbury. Your expression speaks volumes. (For more Amar’e, check out a similar destruction of Anthony Tolliver.)

Dwyane Wade on Kendrick Perkins

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cYau7gba5Y

Now, this is a dunk on Kendrick Perkins.

John Starks on Michael Jordan*

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCTfxOrX4k8

OK, it technically wasn’t on Jordan, but he was in the picture and I just wanted to remind everyone about that.

Dominique Wilkins on Larry Bird

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ngtWdgOz0o

Bird looks like he was shot out of the sky.

Baron Davis on Andrei Kirilenko

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYpwjB0IzoU

Isn’t it amazing what Baron Davis can do when he’s in shape and interested?

Tom Chambers on Mark Jackson

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7T_Wg5ilo8

This dunk has the Chris Webber seal of approval.

Shawn Kemp on the Knicks

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVm6USjXAzk

While most people will give Kemp props for his destruction of Alton Lister, I prefer this one because of the degree of difficulty. A double-pump reverse on two defenders? Get the hell outta here /NewYorkvoice. (It’s No. 3 in this compilation which includes classics such as Chris Gatling giving the Reignman his props and Kemp putting a knee into Bill Laimbeer’s onions.)

Julius Erving on Michael Cooper

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCT9QyqhkBU

From the cradle to the crowd rising, like the crest of a wave, as Dr. J skims across the Spectrum floor to Chick Hearn’s call of the cradle (“Way … he rocks the baby to sleep…”) to Michael Cooper going into the fetal position to Beard Dude, everything about this is cool.

Vince Carter on Alonzo Mourning

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcU66xdeGck

Carter, the greatest in-game dunker in NBA history, (I need to trademark that), has more than his share of show-stoppers, but Carter goes chest-to-chest with Zo, one of the more feared shotblockers in NBA history, and destroys him. I had this saved on my DVR for more than two years. I wish I still had it.

Michael Jordan on Patrick Ewing

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1R015PScpTM

Oh, no, Jordan’s trapped in the corner by two Knicks. Wait, no he isn’t. But, oh no, there’s no way he’s going to the make it to the hoop. Ewing is there to block it … Never mind. A seven-foot obstacle is no impediment. After Jordan stares down Ewing, you can hear Cliff Livingston go, “Wooohoohoo!” as he mock sprints from the scene of the crime. Or, later in the highlight, Walt “Clyde” Frazier noted that Jordan was gyratin’ and vibratin’ and manages to get a Diet Pepsi commercial all in one comment.

This one play may encapsulate Michael Jordan’s gifts better than any play in his career: the improvisation, the athleticism, the competitiveness. Of all the great dunks in Jordan’s career, this one rises above the rest.

LeBron James And Peculiar Questions Of Sustainability

Photo from Mavis via Flickr

So after two consecutive overtime losses, LeBron in the clutch is a story again. Woo-Frickidy-Hoo. I’m going to conveniently ignore it, for reasons that I hope are obvious (boredom, mostly), but just in case they aren’t, here’s Ethan Sherwood Strauss giving you the ideal explanation in less than 140 characters:

Only a Finals win changes the LeBron narrative. Anything in between either confirms what people think, or gets ignored
@SherwoodStrauss
E. Sherwood Strauss

So instead of focusing on a narrative that very nearly decimated NBA fans’ ability to enjoy the internet last season and which isn’t going to be resolved for at least 5 months, let’s go to the LeBron story that is actually news, which is that he’s having the best season of his career.

LeBron has played just 10 games so far, so we probably need to temper our reactions,  but the much-maligned superstar is currently posting a PER of 33.2, which far exceeds every single season-long mark in history. While that’s clearly going down soon, even detractors of the stat should have their eyes open wide at this point. This despite a career high turnover ratio.

This, of course, is varying degrees of sustainable. En route to the insane PER mark, LeBron blowing away the best rebounding numbers of his career (a ridiculous 21.1% defensive rebounding rate, 2.1% higher than his career best 08-09), which history shows us will go down. He’s also posting a career high turnover ratio – but his Miami numbers were the worst since his rookie season as is, so this may require some monitoring. He’s playing 37.4 minutes a night, which is the least he’s played since… ever.

Around these new tweaks, LeBron, in his 9th year (gulp!), is pretty much the same player. The rebounds will revert to their norm, the turnovers will go down slightly, and the minutes will likely stay where they are. The numbers at this point should be taken at face value – for instance, LeBron was shooting a career high 79.3% from the line a recently as yesterday, before a horrendous 9-17 outing sent him back to his career 75%. At worst, the things we have so far should either fail to register or raise questions standing at varying degrees of interesting to be visited later.

The biggest of those questions, however, is also the source of LeBron’s biggest improvement, and it has been the way LeBron gets his points. As Brian Windhorst  detailed, LeBron’s offensive game has trended inwards, and the results are easy to see both on the court and in the numbers. LeBron virtually stopped shooting 3 pointers – he’s attempted only 5 so far, 10 games in, after shooting 3.5 long bombs a night just last year. In the mean time, LeBron is showing off the much publicized new post game has been the (9th in the league at exactly 1 point per play, after 41 plays in 10 games, according to mySynergySports.com).

All in all, LeBron’s true shooting percentage is ridiculous 62.6%. TS% takes into account 3 point shooting and free throws – and indeed, while LeBron has stopped taking 3s, he’s getting to the line at a career high rate of 0.56 free throws per field goal, and is shooting a fairly ridiculous 57% from the field. Everything described in this paragraph is easily a career high, which should raise quite a bit of red flags. There’s no doubt this won’t sustain, no doubt this can’t work – right?

Maybe. Let’s look at LeBron’s shooting numbers for the last two seasons at different distances from the rim, courtesy of Hoopdata.com:

Two things stand out from this chart:

  1. LeBron’s lost three point attempts have been replaced with shots at the rim and long 2 pointers. The first is good, the last is bad. That’s life.
  2. Interestingly enough, to go with the changes in shot distribution, LeBron’s shooting at the rim has taken a leap to a nearly impossible 80%, but the long 2s have dropped after a major leap in 2010-2011 (LeBron shot 40% in both 08-09 and 09-10).

We can probably assume the percentage at the rim goes down, seeing how LeBron has been between 71% and 73.3% for the past 5 years. In fact, let’s assume it does. If LeBron were to shoot 72% instead of 80% on the same, new 7.6 attempts per game, he would lose 0.6 makes. That would take down his total field goal percentage to 53.8% – still a career high – and his TS% to 60%, slightly under his career high of 60.4% in 2010.

Of course, if we’re correcting for shots at the rim, we should correct for everything. So, let’s take a look at a hypothetical season in which LeBron’s shot selection is identical to right now, and his percentages are the ones from last year. Given those parameters, LeBron would be posting:

  • 28.9 points a night, down from 29 right now.
  • 56.1% shooting from the field – not as crazy as he’s shooting right now, but still pretty crazy.
  • 62.3 TS% – again, just a slight tick down from his small-sample-size career high.

Does this mean LeBron is destined to have an insane shooting season just by cutting down his three point attempts? Not necessarily. Our little exercise just assumes LeBron’s outlier percentage from 16 to 23 feet last season sustains, which may or may not be the case. But even if we take out long 2s from our little exercise in regression, LeBron is slightly above his career high TS% with a very stellar 60.6%.

This could all mean very little. Percentages usually go deeper than 5 separate ranges, and LeBron’s newfound reluctance to shoot 3s could eventually help defenses shut that rim down. It’s possible that this is a 10 game window into the future, but it’s also nearly as easily believable that everything regresses back to everything else.

Or LeBron might have actually matured as a player. It’s hard to tell at this point – and it really is moot until the playoffs, at which point either everything horrible breaks loose or a narrative is re-written – but it’s a start.

Have Ball, Will Travel: LeBron James (II)

In this installment of Have Ball, Will Travel, we’ll take at a look at LeBron James’ drive to hoop in the final minute of regulation against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Based on the league’s interpretation of the jump stop rule, James would have theoretically been able to pivot — as he does in order to manufacture a shot — following the culmination of his move. However, there are two flaws in James’ execution. The first: he attempt to execute a jump stop but does not land both of his feet on the floor simultaneously, a necessary requirement of the rule. That rule is as follows, per the NBA Rulebook:

A progressing player who jumps off one foot on the first step may land with both feet simultaneously for the second step.

The second: following his jump stop, LeBron reverse pivots using his left foot as his base, but slides his foot over from the white boundary line into the painted area itself. This kind of pivot slide isn’t dealt with in the rulebook explicitly, but I’m interpreting it in a general sense under the clauses addressing the “lifting” of a pivot foot (with the explanation that the pivot is being “lifted” and put back on the ground in one motion).

James’ move is not unlike many of the others that have been documented in this series. It takes place at the end of a game by a player with incredible speed, and the fact that it’s James is, in my eyes, irrelevant. The more important factors are the speed of the play action and how much the footwork itself is obscured by defenders, both of which — athleticism and added defensive attention — happen to correlate with being an awfully good player. That doesn’t excuse the lack of a call, necessarily, but the trend of reluctance to determine games with whistles in the blink of an eye is at least worthy of note.

Hat-tip: James Herbert

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