Photo by jliba on Flickr

It sounds like Tyson Chandler could feel more secure about his future with the Mavericks.

“With the collective bargaining agreement and some of the things that they’re trying to enforce, it would basically prohibit me from coming back,” Chandler told KESN-FM FM in Dallas. “It would take it out of my hands — and the organization’s — because it would almost be pretty much impossible for me to re-sign. I just think that can be the worst thing that can happen.”

“For years, the Lakers have been able to win championships and re-sign their players and keep them there so they can go out for another title,” Chandler said. “Now, to put that deal in place after we win ours, I don’t like it one bit.”

Via Tyson Chandler: NBA Deal Might Not Allow Me To Remain A Dallas Maverick, 11/4/11

If we go by Howard Beck’s “95 percent complete” report, then the Mavs will be able to sign him to a 5-year deal. The more punitive luxury tax will be an obstacle, though. Beck reported that the tax would start at $1.50 per $1 spent over the threshold, then increase to $1.75 for teams $5 million over the threshold, $2.50 after $10 million, and $3.25 after $15 million. The Mavs paid $18.9 million last season for going over the tax. We don’t know the exact framework of the new system yet, but using Beck’s formula that number would have been more than twice as high. Essentially, this means it could be extremely expensive for the Mavs to bring back Chandler, but they would only be “prohibited’ from doing so in as much as Mark Cuban might decide it’s not worth it. Also faced with decisions about free agents Caron Butler, J.J. Barea, and DeShawn Stevenson, Dallas is in a tough spot.

There’s an argument to be made, especially when looking long-term, that bringing him back at a steep price would be too risky. The Mavericks acquired him for essentially nothing because he had years of injury issues. This causes Kevin Pelton’s SCHOENE projection system to be pessimistic about his impact next season. But if you ask me, it would be a heartbreaker to lose him. You can’t name five guys as productive as the healthy Chandler was on D last season. Even if you’re a stats guy and you got sick of the “he’s brought the Mavs toughness!” meme, there’s a reason that Dirk Nowitzki compared him to Kevin Garnett and Dwayne Casey compared him to Gary Payton. He’s as versatile as big men come on the defensive end and, for a team that mixed up man to man defense with zones so often and did not have many shutdown individual defenders, his ability to communicate and cover for his teammates was absolutely essential.

Brendan Haywood at his best might not seem like a huge drop-off if you’re trying to talk yourself out of paying Chandler, but it would not be enough for this team. Unfortunate as it may be that Cuban is looking at overpaying a center again, it has to happen. The Mavs’ unexpected title run was the best thing to happen in the NBA last season. On both sides of the floor, their teamwork and execution kept them ever so slightly better than the competition every time they needed to be. They can find ways to sustain this if they lose J.J. Barea, but it’s hard to imagine them coming close to a repeat without their man in the middle. It’s worrying that Chandler’s even thinking about having to leave.