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Tag Archive - NBA playoffs

Miami Heat: Winning Like A Bosh Without Bosh

May 22, 2012 in by with 2 Comments

Via Flickr - Nina Amaho

You have a transcendent MVP and a former Finals MVP, the most feared pair of wings in the NBA. Do you really require Chris Bosh to beat the Indiana Pacers? Shouldn’t that caliber of talent be able to carry a team to the NBA Finals on their broad shoulders without a handful of rebounds and mid-range jumpers? Evidently not, judging by the popular opinion.

Today’s conventional wisdom seems to insist you have to have a bona fide Big 3 to compete in the playoffs, even in round two in the East let alone any final round series. This is flawed, a cop out, excuses. Who is Indiana’s third wheel then? If you can’t beat the Pacers with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade you honestly don’t deserve to sniff the conference finals let alone the promised land.

Not that Chris Bosh wasn’t a valuable piece and a tremendous loss to the cause, but seriously, he was that critical to success? Your entire Finals run, hyped with proud public promises, hinged on Chris Bosh? Chris freaking Bosh?!

Under normal circumstances Bosh’s replacement, Udonis Haslem, would more than cover up the loss of the Boshosaurus, but this season has been anything but usual, and that goes as much for Haslem as anyone. His string of buckets late in a Game 4 win may have seemed out of the norm, but really he was simply due for a progression to the mean after the horrendous season he’s had. Really, he’s been quite a capable mid-range shooter throughout his career until this oddball one, every bit as comparable as Bosh there.

Courtesy HoopData:

Anomalies abound from 3-23 feet between these two players in the last two seasons, but on average it shakes out pretty close. From 3-9 feet for their careers  Bosh is a mere 1.8% better from the floor than Haslem, and it lessens as the floor stretches out in the mid-range, 1.5% difference from 10-15 feet, and only 0.2% apart from 16-23 feet. The effects felt from the loss of Bosh in the mid-range game should be minimal, especially if Haslem does what he’s shown he’s quite capable of from there as he did the other night.

Defensively, of the ten most used lineups on the floor this season, according to BasketballValue,  Haslem appears in four of the best five. To Bosh’s credit, he appears in three of those top five as well, and Joel Anthony, who will primarily cover for those minutes at center that Bosh had been, two. So defensively, the loss of Bosh should be negligible as well, at least on paper. Erik Spoelstra’s squads are well known to be stingy on defense, and Bosh’s name rarely comes up in those conversations. Defensive adjustments shouldn’t be a huge factor.

Has Bosh’s value really evolved so much that he went from dinosaur status to missing link status?

For his career, normalized per-36 minutes, Haslem is an 11.4 points/9.5 rebounds guy, clearly not enough to put a couple of future Hall of Famers over the top, as these former championship third wheels show us at BasketballReference.

Oh wait…

Knicks Center Tyson Chandler Is Probably Better Than You Think, No Matter What You Think

April 12, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Tyson Chandler is not the most talented center in the NBA, and he’s often not the most outstanding player in the moment, but he’s a damn good NBA player. In fact, no matter how good you think he is, Tyson Chandler is probably better than you can reasonably project. When the New York Knicks acquired the 7-foot-1 big man in a sign-and-trade on a four-year, $56 million contract in December of 2011, they got quite a deal. That’s just the truth, and it goes well beyond his defensive value.

Honestly, there’s no better time to start appreciating one of the NBA’s best centers than right now. The subtlety of his impact creates an atmosphere where his game can easily be obfuscated by those old, trusty basketball tropes and idioms. He “does all the little things.” He’s “a consummate team player.” The Knicks “couldn’t survive without him.” All of that is absolutely true, by the way, but none of it can quite capture what Chandler does on the court. If every NBA GM had an opportunity to reprogram the undisciplined, ultra-athletic seven-footer hanging around on their roster, they would use Chandler as the blueprint for a successful rebirth.

It starts with defense. The Knicks haven’t jumped from 21st to 5th in defensive efficiency this season by accident. It’s almost inconceivable that Chandler could play alongside some potentially porous combination of Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire, Jeremy Lin and Baron Davis and still transform the Knicks into an elite defensive unit, but that basketball miracle has come to fruition this season. In fact, the general trend that more good things happen with Chandler on the court has been in development for years. Here’s a rough-chop look at his defensive impact with four different teams over the past four seasons:

Chandler knows his role on the court and plays to his strengths. He’s not faster or quicker than the opposing point guard penetrating into the lane, but he often beats that man to the spot with his anticipation, awareness and length. Opposing big men struggle to break his disciplined approach and steal easy baskets under the rim. He knows defense is his calling card, and clearly stated his goals during the introductory press conference back when some guy named Mike D’Antoni used to coach the Knicks:

“I know what my job is in coming here. I know I came here to defend. I’m going to defend the rim and I’m going to rebound. I’m going to get extra shots. I know if we play on both ends, and we play as a team, the sky is definitely the limit.”

With a record hovering around .500 and an eye on the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoff bracket, I’m not sure New York has to worry about the sky limiting their ascent at this point, but defense is not the problem. As noted by ESPN’s John Hollinger, Chandler is single-handedly turning the Melo-STAT pairing into some viable semblance of a core by taking care of the point prevention thing along with Iman Shumpert and Landry Fields. Even so, fans have been more likely to chant Lin’s name than Chandler’s this season. Such is life for the big man.

The Dallas Mavericks unquestionably benefitted from Chandler’s superb defensive abilities during their championship run last season, but even then he finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting, didn’t even place that high on ballot of Mavericks beat writer Eddie Sefko and received zero first-place votes. Chuck Hayes (2), Grant Hill (1), and Keith Bogans (1) received more first-place votes for 2011 DPOY, so it seems fair to say that Chandler isn’t always turning heads with his brand of basketball. But who cares if he doesn’t turn heads, because he transforms teams. Hollinger is absolutely on point with his recent endorsement of Chandler for 2012 Defensive Player of the Year (insider only).

Now what if I told you Chandler was in the midst of one of the most efficient offensive seasons in the history of the NBA?

It would be a mistake to suggest that he is some sort of offensive centerpiece, but to overlook his contribution on that end of the floor is criminal. Resident basketball sage and Hardwood Paroxysm godfather Matt Moore couldn’t have put it more perfectly when he wrote about Chandler as the perfect “clean-up man” for New York back in December of 2011:

Interesting differential in years where the Spurs killed people and where they didn’t. In years they did, Duncan had what I call the “clean-up man.” It’s someone who just waits, grabs, and lays it in. Because the double-team on Duncan was so rough, that Duncan would miss long, rebound to the other side, and there’s Fabricio Oberto. Just waiting. And watching.

Chandler causes more problems because he’s better than those clean-up men. He’s a legitimate threat. He has the hands to catch and finish, can jam back the putback over a smaller defender, and has enough offense to create a few buckets here and there. He’s like the deluxe version of the clean-up man. And that kind of role addition is a game-changer for teams.

Amen, Matt. Amen. First let’s take a look at his impact on team rebounding through the same lens applied to his defense:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Chandler grabs plenty of rebounds on his own, but he’s always around the rim and contributes with innumerable box-outs and tap-outs as well. The percentage bumps in rebounding paint his value with a broad brush, but a closer look at the details just enhances the beauty of his art.

Consider the following facts regarding Tyson Chandler’s offensive game:

(1) He owns the highest True Shooting percentage of any active NBA player (60.8% TS).

(2) He is on pace to post the highest single-season True Shooting Percentage of any player in NBA history (here is the full list on Basketball-Reference).

(3) As first noted by Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times, he is also primed to claim the third-best single-season field goal percentage in NBA history (here is the full list on Basketball-Reference).

Tyson Chandler: the ULTRA deluxe clean-up man. The title sounds slightly pejorative, but that’s not the case. It also looks like another glossy basketball trope, but it comes far too close to reality for dismissal on those grounds. Of the 610 points Chandler has scored this season, 608 of them have come from either the free throw line or within the paint. You read that correctly. He has 275 points from the free throw line, 335 points in the paint and one lone 16-foot jump shot from the third quarter of a Feb. 3 game against Boston Celtics. It’s not as if he’s missing a ton of jumpers either, as you can see from his 2011-12 shot chart (via Basketball-Reference’s Play Index+ tool and then NBA.com/Stats):

Could Chandler do more on pick-and-pops? Probably. He shot a more than respectable 21-44 (48.0 percent) from 16-23 feet last season with the Mavs, but that can’t hold a candle to his fifth-highest rate in the NBA on basket cuts (1.47 ppp) and ninth-best mark when diving to the rim as a roll man on PnR (1.23 ppp), which comes via MySynergySports.com. I like to think that he isn’t willing to sacrifice interior impact on putbacks, tap-out rebounds and drop-step finishes for a few more points and the tenuous prospect of slightly better spacing. The craft is already perfected. Practical talents and wise decisions have compounded so often that he appears to dictate the merger of the right place and right time on a regular basis. Tyson Chandler may not conform to the NBA’s marketed brand of “spectacular” but he’s probably better than you think, no matter what you think.

NBA Finals Lakers Celtics Game 6: Kobe Bryant’s Legacy Is Forged In Steel Not Paper

June 15, 2010 in by with 5 Comments

Let’s say that the Celtics go on to win one of these final two games. Does that mean Paul Pierce – or Kevin Garnett – is better than Kobe Bryant? Does it mean they want it more? Of course not. All it means is that the 2010 Celtics were better than the 2010 Lakers for two weeks in June.

What if the Lakers win? After all, all they need to do is protect home court. This is what they played all season for. And in order to do that, they need more from Kobe’s alleged supporting cast. He can’t rebound for them, or hit free throws for them, or stop them from taking ill-advised threes. (Well, he could do that, but it would be unprecedented.) Either way, a team will win this Finals.

As for Kobe’s legacy, well, that’s already been determined in the hearts and minds of journalists and fans and Hall of Fame voters everywhere. Is it possible that these next 48 minutes negate the past 45,000? As Kobe himself, might say: No. Not at all.

via SLAM ONLINE | » Stakes Is High?.

A selection of brilliant takes on what tonight means for the Kobester, the Beanster, the Beanorama, the Mambamatic, the… I’ll stop. SLAM Online can sometimes be all over the place, but they do employ some terrific writers. The above was from Russ BengtsonI also liked Myles Brown from the same article:

From the moment he slid those sunglasses off and announced his decision to go pro, he was perceived as a spoon fed primadonna. From the moment he entered the league alongside a man who would turn the marketing model on its ear, his racial identity has been questioned. From the moment he dared to question the work ethic of an established, but complacent superstar and the authority of a well decorated, but manipulaitve coach, he’s been deemed too ambitious. And from the moment he exited that hotel room, he surrendered the benefit of the doubt.

A series of moments, spliced into his highlight reel and the collective consciousness, the effects of which have left us with the man who stands here today, jaw jutted and eyes narrowed. A man who pretends not to give a fuck what you think while making it quite evident that he plays for your approval. Such is the dichotomy of being Kobe Bryant. For there is a distinct difference between being the one in the history book and being the one who writes it.

I tend to agree with the consensus of the piece, which is that tonight changes nothing for Kobe Bryant.

Take Game 5, for example. When I wrote about Bryant’s little barrage hurting the Lakers, immediately there were cries (including some from Brown) that the idea was absurd. That’s how people are with Kobe. If the jumpshots, the impossible step-back threes, the fist pumps, the jaw juts, the unbelievable work ethic resulting in out of this world performances delight you, then you’re going to think Kobe did what he had to do and in no way can scoring 38 points, including 19 in a quarter and 21 straight hurt you. You’re going to think it was another example of his greatness. Likewise, if something about Colorado rankled you, as unfair as that may be, you probably see it as selfishness. If your bias is based off disliking the Lakers or a perceived arrogance (that I doubt anyone would deny) of Bryant’s, then you similarly probably think it’s another example of how he hurts his team with his style. It’s just how it is. With each game we are proven right or wrong, and then the next game happens. The tide has certainly begun to abide in the last few years. Four rings is four rings, after all, and an MVP and 81 points and then a ring and maybe another will do that. But the consequences of being polarizing are that neither side will really surrender their viewpoint because of how much they disagree with the other side.

The piece about Bryant brought that out. Those that think there’s no way that taking 9 of your team’s first ten shots in a quarter could hurt you will say so.  The big element I was trying to get across in the piece was that it was Jackson’s fault, not Bryant’s. That’s who Bryant is. And assuredly, if he’d kept it up or if the Lakers offense as a whole had just warmed back up after Bryant was done, it would have been a masterful performance for the ages. Things which were not under his control put that little outburst into context.  And we’ll see the same debates raged if a similar series of events go down tonight. If Bryant goes down swinging, he’ll have gone down his way, believing he is the best and the best way for his team to win is for him to take over. And his fans will love him for it, and if he loses, his detractors will deride him for it.

Bryant’s place in history is secured, regardless. Those (of us) that root against him may not like it, but it is what it is. His accuser settled, he obviously loves his daughters, his team did nothing against the rules to obtain the talent they have, and he’s consistently been a part of championship teams throughout his career. The rings speak for themselves, as much as I hate that argument (Adam Morrison may end up with two, for God’s sake).

If you want to know what tonight means, in any real sense? It speaks something of this particular Lakers team. Just days ago I crowned them as great, and they still are. I believe that you’re a great team if you make the Finals, no matter the result. Those early 00′s Jersey teams? Great. Iverson’s Sixers? Great. I have an appreciation for it because that means that they are, in their given year, the two best teams in all of organized basketball. To say they were not great is simply foolish in my opinion. Tonight won’t alter the fact that they’re great. It will alter the impression of the mentality of this team. Nothing can erase 2009. They are a championship team, and that’s all there is to it. But it will leave a mark on this team as mentally weak and some people will pass of 2009 due to the KG injury. It’s inevitable. I don’t think it’s fair (that Magic team was terrific; thanks Vince Carter, by the way). But it is what it is. And a failure tonight could combust a fairly sensitive group of athletic individuals. We saw in 2004 what can happen when you lose a Finals. It’s unlikely, given these personalities aren’t as bombastic, but you simply can’t predict the future. And the best way to stay together is to prove no change is needed.

That said, I still like Lakers in 7. I’ve come this far doubting Boston, I might as well finish the job. I’ve seen Staples be the ruin of too many teams, despite their home crowd being the least effectual of any team over a 5 seed. They have the talent. They have the ability. They don’t have the coaching, but they don’t really need it. They need a few things to go their way, and it has been my experience that that scenario usually works out pretty well for LA.

Bryant remakes nothing of his legacy tonight. But he does have an opportunity to extend it.

Dictionary Definition: The Step-Back Corner Three Point Jumper by Kobe Bryant

June 10, 2010 in by with 2 Comments

Really kids, do I need to say anything more about this? In the future, this GIF will be in the grand online NBA digital dictionary of awesome stuff under ‘S’ for step-back.

The Los Angeles Lakers Are A Great Team

June 3, 2010 in by with 10 Comments

No, I did not lose a bet.

Yes, this is like root canal.

No, this is not a backhanded compliment (well, it probably will turn into that, but I’m going to do my best).

After careful review this morning, I’ve come to the conclusion that this Los Angeles Lakers team is, in fact, great. Not very good. Not very talented. Great.

Ugh. Let’s get this over with.
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I have maintained since 2008 that this was not a great team. That they were a very good team, the most talented team, a load of other superlatives, but never great. Because they never managed to really show any heart. Their version of “dealing with adversity” was when the Rockets without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady and Dikembe Mutumbo outworked them in a seven game series (they had Ming for three games). They always seemed to coast, and then do just enough to get by. They did not execute at an elite level. Their victory over the Magic last year was primed off of a weak playoff schedule (neither Utah nor Denver look very convincing as challengers at this point, do they?), and then a superior talent base with some karma from the Gods (read:Fisher) thrown in.

And when the Lakers cruised down the stretch, routinely getting offed by inferior teams, it was easy to bring that label back. I knew they’d make the Finals, because, again, the talent thing. And they struggled in OKC and it was easy to throw out the same labels at them about not being great and not responding to adversity.

Thing is, they have.

What started me down this path was thinking about how utterly sick I am of them in the Finals. And I am. Let’s not get confused. I would kill for literally any other team to be in the Finals, just to have something unfamiliar at this point. But then I realized “Holy hell, this team has been to the Finals three straight years.” That’s a remarkable feat in and of itself, particularly in a loaded Western Conference (well, besides Utah). They’ve been one of the final two teams for three straight seasons. And they’ve done it with Kobe as their best player, Lamar Odom as their third best, and Squeaky Wheel down there at center. That was the first piece.

Then I started to rationalize it. “Well, yeah, but they’re not a great team, still. I mean, look at the teams they struggled with!” And then I really started to think about it. Didn’t Oklahoma City actually play the best basketball in a losing series effort this year? Weren’t they the one team to really take it to LA, consistently? And for all their inexperience, that was a ridiculously good team. So them pushing LA shouldn’t be surprising. And losing by a gajillion in Game 4 would have sunk most teams. But LA not only battled back, but, and this is the important part, finished them in six games. They went into OKC and took down the Thunder because they’re better and the defending champs. They didn’t slack off and let it go seven. They didn’t mail it in and wait to go back to the comfy confines of Staples. They kicked in the door in OKC and took what was theirs, a series in six.

Utah I’m not giving them any credit for. That team might as well just be playoff cardboard cutouts. They should change their names to the Playoff Speed Bumps.

But Phoenix? That Phoenix team wasn’t just blessed with more talent than we gave them credit for all the way up until the second round. They were riding a streak of confidence. That team believed in itself. If ever there was a team primed to be a great story of a champion, it was the Suns, with Nash and that bench and Grant Hill all refusing to go down, battling their way back from an 0-2 series deficit and tying things up. They guaranteed a win in Game 6 and… LA smoked ‘em. They went into Phoenix, and crushed their hopes and dreams, took care of business. And that’s what great teams do. They don’t shrink from the moment, they steal the other team’s and then shove them down the stairs.  And that’s what they did.

So now they’re back in the Finals. And I think they’ll win. I really do. I’ve doubted Boston in three straight consecutive series, what’s one more, really? I think Boston is an incredible team. I just think this Lakers team is better. Lamar Odom has become a great player… for the Lakers. Ron Artest has become a great complimentary player… for the Lakers. Pau Gasol has become a great player… for the Lakers. All of these players early in their careers represented the salvation of small market teams for me and I’ve watched them become death rays on the Death Star. But that’s the reality of the NBA and I’m doing a disservice to this blog and you who’s reading if I deny it.

The Lakers are a great team. They run a spectacular offense with options at every turn, are led by one of the top five players of all time, are coached by a man who may have 11 rings in two weeks, and are arguably the most recognizable basketball franchise on the planet (and they’re playing the only team you can argue about it with). They have battled back from adversity and closed out series like champions. They are, quite simply, a great team, and I expect them to win their 16th NBA championship, cementing this crew as having passed the very lowest threshold of being considered a dynasty.

**************************************

Go Celtics.

Wait, Glen Davis.

Go Lakers!

Wait, Phil Jackson!

Go Celtics!

Wait…

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Behold, the face of greatness:

Via Reds Army (I saw this guy behind the announcers a month ago and commented on it on Twitter. Now, he haunts my dreams. And probably smells like a BP vacation.)

NBA Finals Celtics Lakers Preview: NEW! ON BROADWAY! FOR THE 758TH TIME! THE SHOW YOU ALL KNOW AND LOVE!

May 21, 2010 in by with 6 Comments

Hmm? What’s that? The Conference Finals are still on?

Ho ho ho.

Silly person.  Let’s not waste our time, shall we? Look, I love the Suns. I think Steve Nash is a Hall of Famer and someone that many people underestimate in terms of valuing the play he’s given us. I’d rather have Amar’e Stoudemire than Chris Bosh, terrible defense and all. But let’s face it. They’re sunk. People will tear down their defense, and their desire, and mark them as flawed and inferior in every way. They’ll do all this despite the Suns landing the third seed in a pscho-competitive Western Conference, despite them getting past Portland, who though injured all to hell, were also in the wounded animal territory. They’ll do this despite them taking down the Spurs, the prohibitive favorite to face the Lakers in the WCF, and doing it in four games in which they looked the superior team throughout. But the Lakers? Too tall. Too strong. You have a team that relies on quick, smart passing and transition offense up against a team that puts Sequoias in the passing lanes and has what I think is the best transition defense in the league (when they actually give a crap). This isn’t a failure of the Suns, this is just what the Lakers do. Turn it on when they have to and coast on through when they have the advantage. Hell, Jordan Farmar is making big shots. Derek Fisher is playing well. When that happens, they have literally no positional weakness. What do you do against that?

And the Magic? Okay, sure, Boston sucks at home. Fair enough. And you did make yourself a nice little run at the end of both games. But you lost at home to a team you beat last year. They disrespected you in the press, then came into your house, and disrespected you there. I mean, all you had to do was rely on Vince Carter. I CAN’T BELIEVE THIS HAS NOT WORKED OUT. THIS IS TOTALLY NEW INFORMATION.

They may not be sweeps. After all, we’re talking about two of the laziest teams in the league with huge advantages. But these series are over when the Lakers and Celtics decide they are.

So here we are. Again. With the two teams with the most Finals appearances. Again. One of which will have been in 31 of the past 62 Finals. The other which has the most championships. You say sports elite, I say a failure of the NBA to solidify its popularity by excluding 90% of the league from contention. But hey, the ratings will be through the roof.  It’s a smart business model to rely so heavily on these two, like an ice cream parlor serving up the best chocolate and vanilla soft-serve in town. There’s sprinkles (Rondo) and nuts (Artest), but there are still only two flavors. However, if those two flavors are the most popular and you have the best, why waste time with variety?

So Lakers-Celtics it is. And really, if we were to be casual fans, we would have seen this coming. Take someone who has only taken a passing glance at the league over the past three years. Ask them who the best teams are. They’re going to say “Oh, the Lakers. They’ve got Kobe, and that big Spanish dude and Odom and they got Artest, right?”  They’ll also say “Oh, and the Celtics. I mean, I know they’re old, but Pierce and Allen and Garnett. That’s just too much, right?” They may have said Cleveland depending on their awareness of how good James is, and hey, maybe they were really astute and selected Orlando. But the fact is, the more you pay attention to the league, the more you’ll get caught up with insignificant details. That’s what’s incredible about these Finals. They are simultaneously completely surprising and the most predictable result possible. If you pay attention to the game, to the regular season, to matchups, to really anything prior to the second round, you wouldn’t have seen this coming most likely. It’s possible.  After all, we knew the Lakers were capable of this, and we thought Boston was capable of this. But with how LA has taken so much time off in playoffs before, including one game in Oklahoma City, and how banged up the Celtics were, predicting it would be this easy was something that was only intuitive to fans of those franchises who are obsessed with one another (“We want Boston!”) and the casual fan.

As Krolik pointed out, we live in a cliche, conventional world. Defense does win championships, teams that have won before will win again, Vince Carter cannot get it done in the clutch, Kobe is the best player in the NBA, fly-over country doesn’t matter, a watched pot never boils and you have to play with the heart of a champion (or have the most ridiculous collection of talent since Showtime and have top free agents willing to take the MLE just to play for your team because of the weather, chicks, and celebrity) to be a champion.

So how does this shake out?

QUICK! SOMEONE MAN DEAD PUPPET FISHER’S STRINGS!: Rondo’s going to average 28-14-8 in this series, isn’t he? I mean, he has to. Derek Fisher can’t contain him by any stretch of the imagination because of his physical advantages (fast, long, better than Derek Fisher), and if he’s able to get floaters to fall against Dwight Howard, then the Lakers trifecta can’t be much harder. But then, Fisher’s handling Nash. Hold on, I’m going to vomit. Okay, there, I feel better. He’s not allowing Nash to destroy him, and Gasol has proven that even when he should fail because of his trademark characteristics (weak like a wheat field, sluggish like sloth), he usually succeeds (manhandling Howard in last year’s Finals, detonating play after play after play). So really, trying to bet on Rondo doesn’t make sense because it doesn’t fit into our cliches. “Veteran Point Guards always succeed over younger, faster guys.” So there’s one for LA.

TRAPPED ON 18 FOOTER ISLAND: Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are younger and more versatile at this point than Kevin Garnett. It’s much like Vader struck down Obi-Wan, only in this instance, Obi-Wan would not have been kind and helpful to Luke but instead would have acted like a mental asylum escapee barking, spitting, and threatening to have sex with his children. Oh, and if you’re wrapped up in this metpahor, Glen Davis is Luke Skywalker in this scenario. If you have a hard time imagining Davis crying like Luke does at the end of Empire, just imagine someone stole his fudge bar.  There. So Garnett surely won’t be able to succeed in this series, right? WRONG. Let’s check the Cliche chart! “Veteran superstars always step up when it matters and taste glory one last time.” So get ready for that pick and pop to Garnett to work. This actually works in basketball terms. Gasol has the defensive range to step out, but he’s going to be drifting to stop Rondo because Laker’s Fight Club Rule 1A is.. well, actually, it’s “Don’t ever go out in something that isn’t hand-made for you by a fashion designer that you paid too much for, which is appropriate since they’re the only ones that can afford tickets to Staples for games they’ll show up 45 minutes late for.” But the second rule is “No easy layups.” So Garnett will have that 18 footer, and that’s his wheelhouse right now. His go-to. His Chris Kataan annoying voice.  And it will fall. Oh, it will fall.

THE INCREDIBLE SHRINKING POST GAME: I want an investigation. Kendrick Perkins in the last two months has shut down Jermaine O’Neal (a little odd to the degree, but fine, whatever) and Shaquille O’Neal (okay, still old, but hey, the man’s still a mountain) and contained Howard in relation to number of touches versus number of points. Yes, Howard got 30 last game, but much of that was against people other than Perkins and if he’d scored on half the actual touches he got, he would have had 60. The man may be the strongest dude in the post in the NBA right now. He’s not even jamming guys with hard elbows. Just slightly shoving them back, like they’re blocks in Super Mario World. So can he do this to Bynum? Absolutely. Will he? No chance! Why? Check the Cliche chart! “A young up and comer who has faced adversity will step up and make some big plays.” Gotta be Bynum, right? I mean, it’s not going to be Shannon Brown, unless that play is “Make a really spectacular jump that results in a missed dunk that everyone gets excited about even though he missed the damn dunk.”  So Bynum should somehow get points here. That’s right. Andrew Bynum will succeed where Dwight Howard, Shaquille O’Neal, and Jermaine O’Neal have failed. For the Simmons readers in our audience, please insert your favorite violent act I will commit upon myself here.

SUPERMEGASTAR VERSUS MEGASUPERSTAR: So what then? What will it come down? What will decide this series of EPIC MASSIVE PROPORTIONS, LIVE ON ABC? Let’s check the Cliche chart! “Two superstars will rise to the occasion, and one will lead his team to victory just a bit more than the other.” Well that’s not helpful, Cliche Chart. I’m trading you in and getting one of those funny infographics pieces on the BP oil spill or something.  Look, it’s going to be Pierce and Kobe. It’s always Pierce and Kobe. This would lead you to believe it’s going to be the Celtics, if you’ve been paying attention all year. After all, Kobe played badly this year. He just did, relative to his former production. He took too many, shots, bad ones, and all those game winners were often needed because he failed to fit into the offense and instead went all Max Payne. Pierce has always been the bedrock, coming out of a shooting slump in the Magic series and knocking down those elbow jumpers. But this is all if you’ve been paying attention. What does the conventional wisdom say? Kobe wins. And the Lakers get revenge in an epic, seven game series with Kobe hitting the game winner through a flying ring of fire while shooting down the terrorist in the audience (screen tested by David Arquette) and saving all mankind. And on the floor afterwards, Pierce and Kobe will hug, with Pierce saying how much he respects him, and Kobe saying, no, I respect you. And they will bro hug and the music will play and Jack will celebrate with Andy Garcia and ESPN will start on a documentary about the documentary about them.

Despite all the snark, this will be entertaining as get-out. Rondo will probably have a few huge games and Kobe should do something amazing and the teams are matched pretty well. Neither is considerably deep, both have players playing well above their actual talent level right now (Brown v. Tony Allen), and are frontloaded with personalities. You’ll laugh at Glen Davis flopping all over Pau Gasol. You’ll cry at Ray Allen trying to guard Artest. And at the end of it, one of the greatest franchises in sports will hang another banner.

We should have saw this coming.

Conference Semifinals Notes 5.18.10

May 18, 2010 in by with 3 Comments

  • I miss the regular season. I understand I’m one of only a few, on account of these games “mattering” and what not. But it’s the journey I like, not the ending.
  • And the Celtics and Lakers have crapped all over that journey.
  • I mean, really, these were two very average teams throughout the course of the last half of the season. And when the Celtics struggled and said they were just bored, how could you believe them? They looked unbelievably mortal. It’s not that I thought they were dead in the water. But I thought they’d have to realize you can’t just breeze your way through life, you have to step up and work hard if you want to win a championship.
  • And it’s true. You just only have to do it for about six weeks of the year.
  • Is it possible to undervalue the job the Celtics have done on defense? Because I still feel like that’s what people are doing. Pointing out the Magic’s effort as some sort of epic failure is a little deceptive. A great example was when late in the second with the Celtics up 15, the Celtics forced four perimeter passes, resulting a cross-court heave to Pietrus that would have been wide open last year, only to find Pierce sprinting full force and lunging in the air to run off the three. It’s that kind of effort that has to be given to knock the Magic offense off course. And the Celtics gave it, and have been giving it since the playoffs began.
  • And just as impressive as Boston’s defense is LA’s offense. Somehow, this is being translated into “the Suns still suck at defense.” Which is akin to saying “Damn, that tugboat was weakass. Look at it! It didn’t even stop that Navy Destroyer from plowing through it! God, same ol’ tugboat. Pansies.”
  • The Lakers had the following points per possession on play types last night: Isolation 28 plays for 1.21 per play, P&R Ball Handler 7 plays for 1.43(!!!) per play, Post-up 13 plays for 1.31 per play, Spot-up 17 plays for 1.29 per play, Cut 11 plays for 1.18 per play, Offensive Rebound 7 actual shots off rebound for 1.43 (!!!) per play. And another 10 transition plays for 1.3 per play. They scored 71% of the time they ran pick and roll with a play for the ball handler and 71% of the time the shot off an offensive rebound. I understand that a better defense would have held them to lower numbers. The Suns did not play good defense. But those number… they’re ridiculous. If you’re not a numbers person, please recognize that if you hit 1.00 ppp you’re doing pretty well. This was like getting bombed by a fleet and you’ve got an umbrella. Sure, if you had yourself a metal containment unit it might take more time for you to die, but you’re still getting bombed by a fleet.
  • Want a comparison for the Celtics’ work on defense? How about the Magic’s 1.13 in Isolation being their bright spot outside of their offensive rebounding numbers (which you’d expect with Dwight). .67 PPP on P’n'R Ball Handler. .5 on the cut. The Magic were able to get 6 plays run for a shot off the cut. Two of them lead to turnovers and they only scored on 2 of the other possessions. That decimates your offense. Spot up? 12 plays for a 1.0. So your wide open shot attempts you work for only netted you a 38.5% scoring percentage. Again, those are Herculean numbers. Those are the team wide numbers equivalent of LeBron dropping 49-10-9.
  • The Magic are still in this thing, the comeback showed that. They’ve got to, you know, do the things that won them the series last year (creating extra rotations, spreading the floor, forcing the issue, not sucking), but they’ve got a shot at it. Phoenix? Yes, there was a part of me that held out hope yesterday afternoon. That maybe the size and talent and experience and ability and karmic, for whatever reason, tidal wave the Lakers have on their side wouldn’t bum rush the Suns. It’s only one game. Sure they can come back and win Game 2. But last night was a statement. The Lakers had their moment of weakness, and like I argued it would, it came in the first round. Once the Lakers wake up and realize they only have to try for just a little bit more, they’ll do it.
  • You realize this is what we all expected two years ago. The Celtics made the move for KG and Ray, and we expected them to contend for a few years. The injuries made us question, along with their piss poor regular season performance. But it’s still them. Same guys behind the mask. And LA made that trade for Pau. We all knew it would come to this. Lakers and Celtics. And the rest of the season is just a bunch of minor details no one will remember.

NBA Playoffs Video: Dwelling on Celtics-Cavs Game 6

May 17, 2010 in by with 9 Comments

LeBron James and the Cavs’ early elimination from the playoffs has inspired an endless amount of criticism, blame, confusion, and speculation, but somehow lost in it at all was giving Game 6 its proper due. The allure of looking forward rather than looking around had everyone pondering over James’ free agent future rather than giving the Celtics the credit they deserve for taking down the #1 seed in completely dominating fashion. Game 3 aside, Boston looked like a team capable of making a serious run at the title, and their initial contest of the Eastern Conference Finals doesn’t do much to discourage that theory.

So, in video form, I offer tribute to the Celtics’ fine Game 6 win over the Cavaliers. It wasn’t the spectacle that Game 5 was, and it’s not the media bonanza that LeBron’s summer will be, but it was still an interesting game on a number of levels and too valuable to gloss over.

NBA Playoffs Spurs Suns: Act Two, In Which We Encounter The Inciting Moment

May 6, 2010 in by with 3 Comments

The exposition ends with the inciting moment, which is the incident without which there would be no story.

“It is a magnificent feeling to recognize the unity of complex phenomena which appear to be things quite apart from the direct visible truth.”-Albert Einstein

We witness, in act two of our intense narrative, the inciting action, where the tone is set for our fair tale, the players fully established, and turns safely guarded in mystery. Our story is not the continued clash of pace versus defense, stodge versus vigor, nor some sort of coming-of-age for Amar’e. Instead it’s about unity, the centralization of effort from man to man, because for the first time, since the game which ended under the cloud of THE HIPCHECK, the Suns have pushed the Spurs against the wall and landed a haymaker. They’re not dangling off a cliff, but that breeze at their back ain’t the gentle sea.

Thing was, the game was mince meat. Easy to swallow Spurs domination. And then Jared Dudley took cover completely for a quarter and things were never the same. Dudley crashed the glass and brought with him the same attitude back to the Suns they had in Game 1: “We will not be bullied, we will not be frustrated, we will not be out-worked. If you defeat us, it is because you hit contested shots and things went your way again. But we’re not losing by beating ourselves. Not this time.” And the Suns responded.

I had several conversations with Graydon throughout this game, and after the third I called and told him “The Spurs are making super athletic plays and the Suns are lying in the weeds, tracking them by making the extra pass and running efficient offense. Where the hell are we?!”

The final five minutes though, were absolutely insane. There was no sense to it. None. Channing Frye picks up his fifth foul, and the Spurs fail to capitalize on it. The Suns run the pick and roll, the Spurs take six tries to figure out a solvent for it. The Spurs turned to George Hill’s perimeter game… and it worked. But The Suns had every answer, including two huge Amar’e Stoudemire rebounds. That’s right. Amar’e Stoudemire collected huge rebounds down the stretch. Please collect your bottled water on the way to the bomb shelter.

The role reversal in this game is what has Spurs fans stunned today. It was the Suns’ blue collar bench coming in to outwork the Spurs. It was Goran Dragic doing a remarkably great job on Tony Parker for the first six minutes of the fourth. It was the Suns fighting back from a deficit. It was the Suns overcoming the Spurs’ athletic dunks by Richard Jefferson with well-timed passes and cohesion. In essence, the moon flipped to the ground, did a handstand, smoked a bowl, and then ran away with the spoon.

Up is down, hell is heaven, and the Suns have their first 2-0 lead over Duncan’s Spurs.

There is not a person, not a single one, that thinks this is over. But what has happened is relevant. Because if the Suns are to defeat the Spurs, it has to start with something. It has to start with confidence, and they have that. They took a shot from San Antonio, a Tim-Duncan-rocking, Tony-Parker-midranging, George-Hill-treying shot and beat them on the glass and from the arc.

The point where it was over? Alvin Gentry sent Amar’e Stoudemire and Jason Richardson to join Steve Nash on the bench early in the fourth quarter. Popovich stuck with Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and re-inserted Tim Duncan. From the 9:30 mark of the 4th quarter until 5:47, the Suns faced the Big 3 with not a single one of theirs. The result?

+1.

The Suns bench unit outplayed the Big 3 plus Jefferson and George Hill. Even if it’s just a point, it means the Big 3 came back in rested and ready to work the pick and roll. Which they did, to the tune of one of Amar’e fiercest dunks and a final +5 run to put the foot to the throat. The same foot that’s been missing for so, so long against the Spurs.

Another interesting sideplot to that stint without Nash was this: via Synergy Tony Parker, two turnovers, 0 field goals with Goran Dragic defending.

Goran Dragic was the counter to Tony Parker that Nash wasn’t. Let that one rattle around in your brain. Dragic has the youth to maintain speed ahead of Parker, and is bigger than Nash to keep a physical edge on LeBaguette. It may have only been for a game, but Dragic’s work on Parker deserves considerable notice.

Meanwhile, everything Matt Bonner is not, Channing Frye is. Confident, able to knock down shots with a defender closing, a good inside defender, capable, actually belonging on a professional basketball floor. If the hope is that Bonner will counter Frye, the early results indicate a knockout for the Suns.

All this, and Lopez still didn’t play.

There is plenty to be concerned about. Ginobili is still creating havoc, and while the Suns have done a good job of focusing on not allowing layups at the rim like the Mavericks rolled the red carpet out for, the weakside clean-up by Duncan is pretty devastating. There’s still a lot of work to be done, and all of that is before the fact that George Hill is getting his feet under him and knocking down threes, both of which can be devastating if they become consistent. But also recognize that after all the talk of D’Antoni’s super-tight rotations and their failure to win in the playoffs, Popovich only had seven players play double digit minutes last night, and one of those was Matt Bonner. So really, he only had 6.25 NBA players play double digit minutes last night.

So now our scene changes and we begin the rising action, wherein the conflict is introduced. Whether that conflict will be the vicious response of a wounded Spurs team in front of a home crowd or the crescendo of Phoenix’s finest hour on the road, we honestly don’t know. The question as to the result of this series has been re-opened. Hope, glorious hope is on the horizon. But beyond it lies the same dark cloud of history. As I told Graydon, “All this means is the Spurs are bent on finding a new way to kill their souls.”

Fin. Act II.

NBA Playoffs Postmortem: Miami Heat

May 1, 2010 in by with 7 Comments

With the first round now over, we need to put to rest our fallen brethren. Here lie the Miami Heat, Rest In Peace.

Autopsy Report:

NAME: Heat, Miami

DIED: 4.29.10

AGE: 5 Games

Cause of Death: Complete systemic failure. Structural failure of offensive load capacity. Possible cognitive degradation (Spoelstra lobe).

SUCKAGE: COMPLETE.

Case Summary:Is it any wonder this team was vanquished? Doesn’t it feel foolish to have even though for a heartbeat that Rondo wouldn’t destroy their guards, and that Wade’s attention diverted thus would free Ray Allen? Or that Jermaine O’Neal would really have a good playoff series at this point? Or that the Celtics would give Michael Beasley the one shot he can hit? Or that we would not see the team we’ve feared for so long?

The Heat were overwhelmed in this series. I’d love to give you some sort of deep breakdown of matchups and swing plays or how one philosophy won over another, but really, this was an ass kicking. Kicked them up and down the floor. It was, as Graydon often refers to such series, “A Gentleman’s Sweep.”

Why is it called that?

“Because you give ‘em one. You know, out of a sense of being polite.”

Wade went off, and gave them a shred of dignity, but really, it was abject domination. Perkins didn’t even need to go low on O’Neal. Just shoved him back. O’Neal settled. Didn’t shove back, didn’t battle, didn’t scrap. Just conceded. Meanwhile, the Heat looked like an NCAA team, winging it around the perimeter. There was simply no penetration. The Celtics were everywhere, knew everything. Help, constantly. Double on penetration, triple set on Wade, they were everywhere. When the Celtics are plugged in like that, you have to have great players to force the issue and create stresses. The Heat simply could not do so. They buckled. And in the end, they were revealed as the weakest link in the playoffs.

Obituary: The Heat fooled me. Again. I found myself constantly amazed by their record this year, as every time I would watch them and think “What an abysmal offensive squad.” They lacked any secondary scorer. And you need that secondary scorer to open up the kind of shots their players can make. Quentin Richardson. Mario Chalmers. Carlos Arroyo. Michael Beasley. They’re all spot-up shooters, making an offensive living off the work of the truly gifted. And Jermaine O’Neal was not that weapon. He had good games. But this team was flawed. And I knew it.

But entering the playoffs, I looked at the record. And they have DWade. And Jermaine O’Neal should be able to dominate Kendrick Perkins. And the Celtics have sucked. Okay, I’ll pick an upset here. Miami in 7. D’oh.

And so now the Heat find themselves facing an uncertain future, with no remnants to build around. The mood around Miami is nothing but sunshine and cupcakes. Wade says his heart is in Miami, so he’ll re-sign.  Sure, Beasley may be on his way out, but hey, with all that cap space, how can they go wrong?

Well, for starters, their supporting cast is significantly worse than that of the New Jersey Nets, the worst team in basketball. They Heat do not have Brook Lopez, who has a viable hook shot, low-post moves, and miles and miles of ceiling to climb. They do not have Devin Harris, who bounced back from a significantly bad first half of the season to look very much himself. They do not have Courtney Lee, who for all his faults, is still entering his third year in the league, has experience playing in the Finals and once he develops a bit more will have a complete set of mid-level skills on both sides of the ball. They do not have a guaranteed top 4 pick in an NBA Draft full of potentially great players. They do not have Chris Douglas-Roberts, even, for all his faults. They do not have more cap space. The only reason the Miami Heat are better than the New Jersey Nets is that they have Dwyane Wade, Spoelstra (and he’s not coming off a gem of a series), and Riley, who has not made a brilliant move since…I suppose if you count the trade for Shaq that counts.

But the weather is really nice!

And that’s what it comes down to. You have to appreciate Wade for wanting to re-up. He’s got no reason to be loyal, not in this, the season of basketball capitalism’s apex. But you also have to look at what happened to Garnett and realize that he has an obligation to his legacy to ensure that Riley has the ability to execute the plan before you sign on the dotted line. It’s his priority to convince the help Wade needs to come before Wade can give his assent. But this will likely not be how it goes. Maybe the weather’s enough. Maybe Wade will be enough. But if I’m looking at this team beyond the 1 and 2, I’m seriously concerned about what kind of formula they’ll have for next season.

But hey, 2009-2010 Heat, you’ll always have this. Well, no you, so much. But you were there.

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