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Tag Archive - NBA Trade Deadline

Trade Deadline: Brandon Jennings’ Self-Positioning

March 12, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Photo via EnoNarYam on Flickr.

Sources said Milwaukee has made third-year point guard Brandon Jennings available “for the right price,” as one executive who has spoken to the Bucks put it. Jennings, who was drafted 10th overall in 2009 and has been considered the team’s future franchise player, irked Bucks officials with his comments to ESPN.com in early February about a possible departure.

“I’m going to keep my options open, knowing that the time is coming up,” he wrote in an e-mail to the Web site. “I’m doing my homework on big-market teams.”

via Trade Notebook: Smith, Howard in similar situations; Bucks available | SI.com

In a recent column about the new reality that the desire to play in a bigger market has become an accepted prerequisite for NBA superstardom, I looked at Dwight Howard’s absurd, confused diva act and wondered whether he had fully thought through his decision to jump ship from the Magic. Lately, this mentality has spread beyond the league’s A-listers and evolved into a sinister form of leverage that lesser players can use to convince their teams and the rest of the league that their on-court value is greater than it is in reality. How the next 18 months play out for Brandon Jennings and the Bucks could be telling, in terms of the willingness of small-market teams to attempt to placate supposed franchise players, regardless of whether they truly are franchise players.

Jennings made headlines a few weeks ago by hinting that he had designs on leaving Milwaukee for a flashier locale. This could have been pure ego talking (and probably was), but it was also a savvy bit of PR. Jennings is a very good player who will undoubtedly have suitors if and when he does hit free agency. But he’s also plainly not a superstar on the level of LeBron James, Howard, Chris Paul, or most of the other players leading the mass small-market exodus. What his threatened departure from the Bucks does is connect him in the minds of the general public with those players. It’s a little like how private colleges jack up tuition rates in order to appear more prestigious than they actually are. Behaving like an entitled, spotlight-seeking “global icon” is now a way up the ladder, not just something a player can do once he gets there. The school of thought goes that an almost-star’s leveraging their way onto greener pastures will transform them into a superstar, even if they haven’t earned that leverage on the court.

Jennings’ trade value currently occupies the untenable middle. He’s good enough and far enough away from free agency (the earliest he can hit the open market is 2014, and that’s only if he accepts the qualifying offer following the 2012-13 season) that the Bucks won’t benefit in the short term from moving him for picks and cap relief. But he’s also far too inconsistent and incomplete a player to command the CP3/Deron Williams/Carmelo Anthony-sized haul they will undoubtedly be seeking.

It’s the same predicament that the Warriors are currently facing with Monta Ellis, and one which may greet the Kings in the coming years as they are forced to decide whether or not their future will include Tyreke Evans. Shoot-first point guards are the hardest players to price accurately in the trade market or in free agency—the gaudy scoring averages demand figures and assets that other deficiencies in their games are just glaring enough to make teams regret forking over. And as the Bucks gear up to be the next team to have to negotiate a deal for a new arena, Jennings’ saga puts them in a tough spot. He’s the closest thing they have to a marketable star, and as a small-market team, they must decide whether that’s enough to acquiesce to giving him a contract that could hurt the franchise down the line.

It’s not much of a surprise that a player who took an early sabbatical in Italy to circumvent the NBA’s age limit is attempting to take a shortcut to elite status in the league. What will be worth watching is how the Bucks handle the years leading up to when they have to make a decision. If he’s able to leverage his way onto a big-market team by declaring himself worthy of that right, it could set a precedent that badly skews the priorities of a whole generation of players on the bubble of superstardom.

Post-Trade Deadline Performance by the Numbers

February 19, 2010 in by with 5 Comments

Wyn Douglas peaks in HP writing right around the deadline. But the rest of the year he writes for and manages Timberwolves blog Canis Hoopus and curates his personal site, complete with NBA Player Movement Flow Charts. Cut him some slack, the Wolves have been rebuilding for about 5 years and it’s tough to ensure you’re criticizing the right person for the wrong move.

When approaching the NBA trade deadline, there are 3 primary approaches for franchises to take:

  1. Get busy livin’. These are your Dallas and Cleveland types. While both have already made big splashes this year, both are also regulars in the deadline blockbuster scene. Those that get busy livin’ are the teams looking to add firepower for a championship run, rarely sparing an expense. Cap space? Draft picks? A contender craves not these things.
  2. Get busy dyin’. These are your Washington (at least this year) and Memphis (at least in 2008) types. As you can infer, they are the opposite of the first group. These are the losers smart enough to know that the guys they’ve banked on for the last few years ain’t gonna cut it and if they hold any value for the franchise, it’s as currency. The team will reluctantly hand over their above-average players, in talent and age, in order to clear money and time for the youngsters they have and hope to acquire. It’s not pretty, but in a league of guaranteed money, it’s often the best course of action.
  3. Don’t get busy. While passing on significant deadline activity is one approach, there’s more than one type of team that chooses it.
    • There are those who are just as happy to facilitate another team’s transaction as they are to do nothing at all. Let’s call these the Oklahoma Cities.
    • Then there are the franchises who think swapping Von Wafer for Taurean Green is worth the time it takes to file papers with the League office. A number of different teams are up to this each year, so I won’t single anyone out by sarcastically branding them.
    • The final group, however, are the true sad sacks that think it’s best to let a mediocre core that’s gotten you 1st round playoff exits for the last few years ride. Let’s call them the Old Washingtons.

Continue Reading…

NBA TRADE DEADLINE: Nowhere to Go But Down

February 18, 2010 in by with 1 Comment

Donnie Walsh strolled into the Big Apple the man with a plan. He signed a few role players, picked up a big-time coach, drafted well, and…traded every first rounder the Knicks have between now a 2084, their lottery pick from last year in the infancy of his career, and their best defensive player for cap savings.

And you know what? Aside from the truly ridiculous surrender of first round picks, this is exactly what he was supposed to do.

I’m not saying I agree with Walsh’s plan of attack, because I’ve never thought the super-secret plan of luring LeBron to NYC would do anything aside from motivate the Cavaliers to keep him. James may love fame as much as he loves basketball, but he’s smart enough to know that his legacy rests in making the right choices in situations like these and grabbing as many rings as is humanly possible. That’s not something he’s going to get by moving to New York, regardless of how impressive David Lee has been this season, how much cap space their stocking, how nice of a player Danilo Gallinari has become, or how well Wilson Chandler or Toney Douglas could play alongside him. Every day brings LeBron closer and closer to re-signing with the Cavs, as Danny Ferry’s countless moves made to accommodate James and the team’s slow, but sure climb into the East’s elite give LeBron the whole package. He can win the championship, be a legend, and still be the hometown hero.

But our good friend Donnie? He has to make a run at LeBron. Just like he has to make a run at Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Walsh’s cards have been face-up from the very beginning, and though his transparency with the Knicks’ fan base has been admirable (and what they deserve after all they’ve been through), this is the price that he has to pay. Telling everyone your master plan can paint you as a genius and buy you some time, but the same information that has created FREE AGENT FEVER 2010 in New York has given the upper hand to anyone sitting opposite Walsh at the negotiating table. We all know that the Knicks can’t go into the summer with anything less than prodigious cap space, and Daryl Morey knew that he was Walsh’s last legitimate shot at pulling it off.

But most of that we already knew. We knew that Walsh would have to sacrifice to be a major player this summer, we just didn’t know how much he would have to sacrifice. And so while the Knicks may be the deadline’s biggest losers on paper, all they’ve done is exactly what Walsh said they would do when he took over: put together a few young pieces, get rid of long-term contracts, and hope and pray that the market, the coach, and the promise of the roster is enough to lure a big-name star or two. Whether they’ll be able to do that or not remains to be seen, but can we really blame Donnie Walsh for doing what he pretty much had to do at this point? We knew the trade deadline was endgame, and that all movable 2010 salary had to go.

Make absolutely no mistake: Daryl Morey runs this game. The Rockets made a killing, and though they had to part with Carl Landry, they’ll ultimately be a better team because of this deal. Even the Kings managed to clear cap while acquiring some real talent…and they didn’t have to give up multiple first round picks. But Donnie Walsh is being grilled today for yesterday’s sins, and though many have found fault with his 2010 scheming, this part of the deal had somehow flown under the radar. You have to give a little to get a little — or in this case, you have to give a lot to hopefully get a lot.

NBA Trade Deadline: It Only Took Danny Ferry Four Years To Figure Out Anderson Varejao Is Not A Starter Quality Power Forward

February 17, 2010 in by with 2 Comments

There’s also this issue, which seems to get forgotten a lot during deadline talk. Anderson Varejao is the second-best player on the Cavaliers. It’s true. Say it aloud. It’ll help it sink in. As crazy as it sounds, the guy with the crazy hair who looks like he could get knocked over by a stiff breeze, has no game outside of 10 feet to speak of, and doesn’t dunk on people has become an absolutely vital piece for the Cavs.

How would Andy be able to play next to Amare? They would both need too many minutes to never play with each other. Almost all of Varejao’s offensive game is predicated on him setting the screen up high and/or cutting around the hoop and looking for easy baskets. When Amare’s in the game, it would be foolish not to use him in the high pick-and-roll offensively and try to set him up with as many dunk opportunities as possible. Andy can’t stretch the floor in those situations. Will there be enough space for Andy to be effective in the same lineup as Amare and LeBron? They might be able to figure it out. Or they might not be able to be, and the Cavs end up losing all of their momentum.

via The Four Chronicles: The Return of The Amare Rumors « Cavs: The Blog.

Paroxi-Wife largely ignored the NBA for the first year of our marriage. Then, sometime in her second season, she looked up, saw Varejao throw himself to the floor needlessly (again), and asked “WHAT is that?!”

And so I had to explain Anderson Varejao to my wife. Yes, that is his hair, not a ceremonial headdress. No, he’s not hurt. Yes, he just falls over. No, he cannot shoot. Yes, he’s a pretty good rebounder. No, he has no touch. Yes, he’s a professional basketball player. No, he’s not really a basketball player.

And from there, as she evolved into a Cavs fan, she formed a nickname for him and a theory. Her name for him is Flopsy, and her theory is thus:

“Flopsy is paid to do three good things a game. That’s it. Three. Anything else he does is gravy. As long as he does three positive basketball things per game, he has earned his salary.”

I was stunned. That’s pretty much the most accurate description of Anderson Varejao’s game and contract situation I’ve ever heard, to this day. When he received his extension to boost him to six million, she posited that he now has to do six good things a game. Usually he fails. But that’s the current level to justify the contract.

The point I’m trying to make here is that if Anderson Varejao is your second best player? You have problems. I don’t care what your record is. I don’t care that you beat the Lakers. I don’t care that you have the best basketball player on planet Earth (and probably any other, assuming, they’ve managed to pick up on the concept, and integrate it). If Anderson Varejao is your second best player, you need to do something in order to make it to where Anderson Varejao is not your second best player.

There’s a lot of talk about Amar’e going to Cleveland and his defensive problems, but I’ve said for a long time that I think A. his problems are cover-able in a good defensive system with a good defensive coach and B. he’s still coachable. We’re not looking at a complicated defensive scheme or a straight-man system, even. The Cavs are brilliant because they know how to help effectively. If you give Amar’e backup, he’s going to be fine. I still think Jamison is the better option, because he would fit in seamlessly, but after looking at the numbers, there’s no way to think that Stoudemire wouldn’t be better in the pick and pop, which is where you really need him.

Besides, at least he’s not Flopsy.

NBA TRADE DEADLINE: Dorrell Wright Becomes Relevant, Yippee!

February 15, 2010 in by with 0 Comments

At that stage, Feb. 18 was going to be the easy part: Find someone operating below the tax to take on the $951,066 remaining on Wright’s contact, throw in some extra cash or a draft pick to make it worth their while, and then take a place in line for a $4.5 million rebate check that goes to all non-taxpayers.

That was five weeks ago, when Wright still was a bitter reminder of a 2004 draft gone bad.

Now? Now Wright is, undeniably, the Heat’s best small forward, a significant contributor, an anchor of the second unit.

And that has created a $7 million dilemma (the tax money that would have to be paid to keep Wright, plus the rebate money lost).

If winning still matters, if showing Dwyane Wade that such focus is unwavering, if Erik Spoelstra is to have a chance to comfortably secure a postseason bid, then how can Riley simply sell off an asset who finally has arrived?

The simplest solution might be to package Wright in a trade, and therefore create the appearance that he simply had to be included to serve the greater good. Then there would be no issue with the approach, just as there wasn’t when Caron Butler was included in the Shaquille O’Neal trade.

via Miami Heat Pat Riley needs to keep Dorell Wright – South Florida Sun-Sentinel.com.

You know, someone’s going to lose the 2010 summer. I mean, not everyone’s going to end up with a star. Most people assume the Knicks and Nets are sunk. After all, why would you leave a contender you’ve made a home in for a worse team? But someone’s still going to be out. And that’s where teams are stuck. Take the Heat, for example. Please. Wah-wah.

If Riley stocks up on players now, makes a huge trade, and it doesn’t work out, he’s got two realities. One, Wade’s gone. Riley not only has to prove he can get a superstar, but that he can get the right one to put next to Wade. And two, he’s without his best player, and still under the gun for a large sum of money, headed towards the post-lockout 2011-2012 season where there is very likely to be at least a considerably lower cap if not a hard one. Being on the books for $55 million under a $45 million hard cap would be like having sex in a very uncomfortable place, like the back of a Volvo.

That’s where Wright comes in. For a rebuilding team, for a long-term view of things, Wright’s a guy to keep, to build on, to see where his development takes him. But Riley doesn’t have that luxury. He’s got two options. Win big or burn the place down and sell it for insurance money.

I’m still at a loss for why the Memphis Grizzlies aren’t hurling offers at the Heat. Take the Lakers pick. Just take it. I’d trade the 30th or even 29th pick in the draft for Dorrell Wright so that the team has some semblance of a bench.

But Riley’s stuck, trying to make sure he pulls the right wire at the right time so the bomb doesn’t go off. Everyone thinks he’ll be there after everyone else detonates. Watching this Heat team, even with the recent wins, I’m not so sure.

NBA Trade Deadline: The Amare-Philly Trade Rumors Aim For A Three-Way

February 9, 2010 in by with 2 Comments

Possibilities with Philadelphia could be stronger with two fronts, a deal between bringing in swingman Andre Iguodala for Stoudemire with perhaps young power forward Marreese Speights or a three-way deal involving Detroit with Pistons guard Ben Gordon winding up in Philadelphia and the Suns getting Iguodala and Detroit power forward Chris Wilcox. The rub with Iguodala, a 26-year-old former Arizona star, is inheriting a contract that will pay him $56.5 million over the next four seasons.

via Amar’e Stoudemire trade scenarios still plausible for Suns.

Woah, woah, woah. Speights is on the table (allegedly)? This (allegedly) makes this a whole other (alleged) deal.

Speights in Phoenix? Ye Gods. It ain’t Amar’e, but it’s got a world of potential. Speights-Lopez is a pretty fearsome frontcourt and gives them something to build around with Iguodala-Speights until Nash’s time comes to a close.

The Detroit side is interesting. I certainly enjoy the idea of Dumars ditching Gordon, but you still have Hamilton and Tayshaun, so you’re not really going anywhere. Nabbing Speights would be a coup, especially if they can drag a pick out of it. A true rebuilding effort and a mulligan on the ill-advised spending spree? Of course, if they land Amar’e, that’s a different type of coup.

I’ve always thought Amar’e and Detroit would make a good fit. Big city, small market. Traditional power franchise, used to egos. Veteran approach with some younger guys. He’d get to play in the East, guaranteeing an All-Star birth for the next five years. It would give Dumars a credible star to build around (instead of the guys he signed this summer), and would take a ton of pressure off Stuckey. It would also be nice for all of us who said three years ago that Joe Dumars was arguably the best GM in the league to not look completely insane now.

NBA Trade Deadline: Sources Confirm The Bulls May Have Been Lobotomized

January 27, 2010 in by with 4 Comments

A source confirmed the Bulls have had discussions with the Lakers about Hinrich, most likely for Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic, but nothing is imminent.

Salmons’ contract is relatively low risk. He’s owed $6.7 million next season and has an option to terminate the final year of his deal, so he might turn out to be an expiring contract anyway.

It’s possible the Bulls could resurrect the potential deal sending Salmons, Brad Miller and Jerome James to Houston for Tracy McGrady and filler before the deadline.

via Daily Herald | Brown’s arrival might pave way for more Bulls moves.

Wow. Just wow.

Okay, let me try and put aside the anti-Laker stuff for a moment.

Hinrich’s deal is an anchor. A big, nasty anchor that was fine a few years ago when there wasn’t this massive awesome free agency and and a recession and an unbearable slide into mediocrity by your Chicago Bulls. Getting rid of him is tossing free the limitations of that guard setup completely, meaning that Salmons becomes bench scorer extraordinaire and they can sign the big free agent small guard.

But you’ve got a defensive stopper who can run an offense and is a capable NBA veteran. And you’re going to ditch him for The Machine and Ammo? Two of the worst bench players in the NBA? Forget the post-Laker-phenomenon, where players that played with excellent players on excellent teams with excellent coaches go elsewhere and suddenly find that their ability to fly is gone and then crash into a taxicab like the guy in the Kick Ass trailer. You’re getting .25 on the dollar for a moveable asset. This is similar to the Gasol trade in one respect (and one respect only): there absolutely, positively HAS to be a better deal out there. You’re talking about making your offense, defense, and depth worse, just as you’re starting to heat up and make a playoffs push. A meaningless playoffs push, I grant you, but a playoffs push.

You’d imagine that teams would look at Ariza in LA, and then look at him now, and then look at him in LA, and then look at him now, and then start laughing as they walk off the call whistling dixie. But apparently, the teams that need to push the detonation trigger (Philadelphia, Indiana) are going to clutch tightly to their little dysfunctional families and the teams with movable assets and something to play for are going to start throwing guys out there on the stoop and see what possum they can bag in return.

NBA Trade Deadline: Start Considering Troy Murphy

January 25, 2010 in by with 1 Comment

Troy Murphy was literally one made FT away from being Above Average in all 5 categories. Instead he is Above Average in 4 out of 5

via Looking at “VORP” With Colorful Charts, Vol. 2: Shooting Percentages.

On Twitter, one of the WFNY crew pondered about if the Cavs would get Jamison or settle for Troy Murphy, their other supposed target, pre-Amar’e availability (or re-availability, whatever).  I responded that the Troy Murphy idea was more up Ferry’s alley. A value deal, versus the homerun. I said Ferry was a Value Brand shopper. Dude probably drinks Dr. Thunder.

But then I started wondering after taking a look at Jared’s fantastic chart breakdown of the Pacers’ performance compared to average, how good is Murphy in terms of a trade asset?

The verdict? Pretty damn good.

Troy Murphy is 30 years old, Jamison is 33. Murphy makes $11 million this year and a little under $12 million next year, which is an expiring contract year (SUPER TRADE VALUE BONUS x3!). Jamison makes $11 million this year, $13 million next year, and $15 million the year after, when he’ll be 36.

Jamison is averaging 22.5 points per 40, 8.8 RB per 40, 1.1 steal and .2 blocks per 40. Murphy is averaging 18.0 points per 40, 12.4 rebounds per 40, 2.5 assists, 1.1 steals, and .8 blocks per 40. Jamison has a PER of 19.55, Murphy a PER of 18.19.

Wowzers. That’s much closer than I thought it would be.

You could argue that Jamison is a star, while Murphy is not, that Jamison is a difference maker, which I’ve been arguing for weeks, while Murphy is not. Check the standings. Indiana’s a half game better than Washington, with Arenas only having been out a month, and having Haywood, Butler, and Mike Miller versus Granger, Dunleavy, and Hansbrough.

It’s pretty apparent that the difference between these two guys may not be as wide as we thought, if we’re looking at actual production. I still believe that Jamison is the right play, a guy capable of going off in a pick and roll set versus LeBron. But if the Cavs can’t weasel him free of Washington, it’ll be a lot easier to hand rebuilding Indiana Z’s Get Out of Cap Jail Free Card and get Murphy. Murphy’s younger, cheaper, and if he doesn’t work out, you’ve got an expiring contract for next year.

Jamison may be the sexiest pick, heck, the right pick, but when trades are so difficult to accomplish, Murphy may be the easy way out. And what’s more Dr. Thunder than that?