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Tag Archive - orlando magic

Mike D’Antoni, Made For The Magic

May 22, 2012 in by with 3 Comments

Think back for a moment about the components of the Mike D’Antoni offense. The speed, the frenetic quickness, the zinged passes in transition, all those dunks and threes.

What’s the one thing all those competitive D’Antoni teams always lacked? That’s right, a defensive anchor. And it could easily be debated that there’s no better defensive anchor than Dwight Howard.

Now imagine for a moment that Mike D’Antoni was the next head coach of the Orlando Magic. Go ahead, breath it in for a minute, bask in it. Because it would be glorious. Who wouldn’t want to take that ride?

Trade Deadline: What Bogut-For-Monta Means

March 13, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Bucks and Warriors have agreed in principle on trade to send Bogut and Jackson to Warriors for Ellis, Udoh and Brown, league source tells Y!
March 13, 2012 7:27 pm via webReplyRetweetFavorite
@WojYahooNBA
Adrian Wojnarowski

Ask, NBA blogosphere, and ye shall receive. After a few days of intensifying speculation and rumors, the first real trade of the 2012 deadline went through on Tuesday evening, and it’s a doozy. Let’s unpack:

  • If Andrew Bogut can stay healthy (kind of a big if, but it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility), he and David Lee will make up one of the better 4-5 combos in the league. Bogut isn’t expected back for a while, but the back end of the Western Conference playoff race is close enough that Golden State has a shot at sneaking in, and if they do, his presence could make them a tough first-round matchup for one of the top seeds.
  • As unlikely and questionable as Stephen Jackson’s return to Golden State seems on the surface, perimeter D is a need that he fills. There are risks involved with bringing him back, but getting a center as talented as Bogut makes it worth the gamble. Worst-case scenario, they can negotiate a buyout.
  • If the Warriors do decide to buy Jackson out (which isn’t the plan as of now, according to Yahoo!’s Marc Spears), he instantly becomes the most intriguing candidate to be picked up for cheap by a contender.
  • The biggest downside to this trade for the Dubs: the future of their franchise now depends entirely on the health of Bogut and Stephen Curry, the very definition of a high-risk/high-reward proposition.
  • The second-biggest downside to this deal for Golden State is losing Epke Udoh. But if the Warriors are in win-now mode, it’s worth giving up an unpolished prospect for a known quantity like Bogut.
  • The Bucks save some money by unloading Jackson’s contract and getting back Kwame Brown’s expiring deal.
  • Think about the prospect of a Brandon Jennings/Monta Ellis backcourt for a second. Has any guard combo ever posted a usage rate over 100? Will they combine for 70 shots per game? Is this the black-holiest backcourt since Marbury and Francis? The Bucks just became everyone’s favorite League Pass team for the final third of the season, purely from a morbid entertainment standpoint.
  • Of course, though they deny it now, there’s always the chance this deal could foreshadow a Jennings trade. I wrote about his future in a post yesterday, and now the Bucks may have to answer the question sooner than we thought. If it doesn’t happen before Thursday, we’ll definitely be hearing increased talk about moving the third-year guard this summer, when he becomes eligible to sign an extension.
  • In the grand scheme of things, this trade will probably become a footnote to whatever does or doesn’t happen with Dwight Howard in the next 36 hours. However, if Howard does get traded, this could be viewed as the first domino. The Magic had been making a hard push for Ellis in the past few days, in hopes that it would placate him. Now that that’s off the table, who else can they target to try and keep Dwight happy? Even if Phoenix has a change of heart at the last minute and decides to move Steve Nash, Orlando doesn’t have great assets. The Ellis/Bogut trade might be the thing that finally convinces Otis Smith to pull the trigger on a Howard deal, in which case the Bucks and Warriors can claim a small piece of the credit in helping to end the tiredest story of this season.

The trade deadline is fun, isn’t it?

The Slippery Slope Of The Orlando Magic

February 2, 2012 in by with 1 Comment

Photo from emacp via Flickr

This won’t be your typical obituary.

We’re not going to tell you how horrible a death the Magic are experiencing. Orlando’s collapse has been startling, but it’s hard to imagine them playing anywhere nearly as badly as this in the future, and in this East, they still rank as a maybe-second-but-probably-first-round team that is ready to implode at any second. This is about July of 2012 (or whenever Dwight finds himself wherever), not about now, and will be addressed then.

We’re not going to be discussing Stan Van Gundy. No point in that. No collapse can undo the smooth serenity that was brought upon our minds and souls as we heard that 1-inside-4-outside machine hum, or the magnificent dominance behind a defensive juggernaut that was as much fat-mustachioed-coach as it was physical-specimen-superstar.

We’re not going to be discussing Otis Smith. Poor, foolish, naïve little Otis Smith. “Gilbert can do it! We’re friends!”, “Big Baby can do it! Him and Dwight are friends!”, “Hedo can do it! Him and pizza are friends!”. I will defend the de facto Hedo for Vince trade until the day I die – 2009 Hedo was a mediocre player who just happened to work at a flukishly high capacity when the cameras were on for a two month stretch, while 2009 Vince was a legitimate all-star player everywhere on the floor – but it just so happened that he was also Vince Carter. And that was the best Otis move of them all. Frightening.

We’re not going to be discussing Dwight’s leadership, whatever that hyperbolic 10 letter bundle even means. Not because it isn’t the story. When the best defensive player in the entire league stops trying on defense, it’s a story. When the second best player in the league seems follows the exact path of the best player in the league even though it made him the biggest villain in modern sports, it’s a story. When your franchise player takes a good hard look at his friends being blown out by one of the worst teams in the league, shakes his head, and pulls off Eric Cartman’s “screw you guys, I’m going home” – it’s a story. It’s just not my story.

No, the end of a Magic era that was but a few breaks away from being a true dynasty isn’t about the main characters. At least not for now. Because even though it’s Dwight’s own whims that will ultimately send him away from central Florida, it’s hard to ignore the fact that this team just isn’t good enough to do actual damage. Even with the big fella still roaming the corridors of the Amway Center. The supporting cast that did so much for that 09 Finals run and that dominant 09-10 campaign (I still hate that we didn’t get a Cavs-Magic rematch that year. They really were the two best teams) should, on paper, be stronger than ever, yet has unceremoniously dissipated as time went by.

“Should, on paper, be stronger than ever”?

Typically, when contenders die, they die old and feeble, bereft of alternatives. A 34 year old shooting guard there, a 35 year old backup center here, with no replacement in sight other than the 38 buyout candidate. We saw it in Cleveland, where LeBron James was surrounded by a prime Mo Williams and Anderson Varejao to go with an assortment of over-the-hill veterans, and one Shaquille O’Neal, who at that point may have well been the actual hill. We’re seeing it now in Boston, with the Jeff Green youth infusion sadly being denied by factors far more important than basketball, leaving Rajon Rondo to shoulder the entire burden of internal development unless Avery Bradley decides he’s going to be good.

Orlando has gotten internal development. Limited volumes of such, to be sure, but amounts unheard of for the dying giant that Orlando is in today’s landscape. Ryan Anderson has internally developed into something that is either an all-star or the best role player ever, playing the Rashard Lewis role at a level that Rashard Lewis never even approached. J.J. Redick, after exhausting years of hard work and refusal to accept his fate as an NBA non-factor, overcame last year’s injury problems and is working at the capacity of a very good NBA starter. Even Von Wafer has been less Von Wafer than usual, doing a good job creating shots and making them at a solid rate.

If you add these two and a half improving youngsters to what used to be a solid array of role players and semi-stars, this should be a far better Magic team than last season. Maybe not Chicago or Miami level, but as close as it gets out East.

Of course, that’s contingent on the non-youngsters as well. And that’s where, umm, sad.

Jason Richardson made his name as a volume scorer, an elite outside shooter, and one of the best rebounding guards in basketball. Well, after his move to Orlando saw him lose 2 of those 3, he got a 4 year $24 million (sorry, some Otis Smith talk will inevitably get in here), he stopped making threes as well. The result is 9.9 points on 48.5% true shooting, and a rebound rate lower than the likes of Jannero Pargo. It boggles the mind, but to the naked eye, it seems as if a 31 year old who is less than 2 years away from being a major playoff factor is now virtually useless as a basketball player. Looks like Kevin Pelton was right after all.

Who the hell is Kevin Pelton?
June 27, 2011 2:21 pm via EchofonReplyRetweetFavorite
@jrich23
Jason Richardson

Meanwhile, Jameer Nelson has pulled off a disappearing act so startling that even Richardson doesn’t know where to find him. As someone who has loved Meer since he was an undersized youngster trying to convince his coach that he was definitely much better than Carlos Arroyo, this is a sore subject, so we’ll let Nate Drexler handle this one as we try and fail not to cry while looking at photos of meerkats, drinking heavily, and listening to Air Supply.

Glen Davis, supposed to be an infusion of youth and hustle and defense, is instead a large clot of blubber clogging the arteries through which crisp passes and threes used to flow. Hedo shows occasional flashes of the abilities that mistakenly gave him this contract, to go with the constant blinding light that is the abilities that got him traded twice since. Quentin Richardson hasn’t been seen since he fought with Kevin Garnett in the playoffs and KG killed him. And I refuse to write any words about Chris Duhon other than “ugh”. Sadly, there aren’t enough “ugh”s in the world.

This shouldn’t have happened. Age is a bad thing, but Nelson is 29, Richardson 31, and Hedo 32. They shouldn’t be peaking, but they definitely shouldn’t be grave-bound. The Magic should have complemented their scarce but effective youth with an impressive array of former 2nd tier stars and strong management of the assets that they used to have (again, I know we said no Otis). But as the “other guys” slowly burn out, so does the flame that once burned in Orlando during late Mays and early Junes.

And that’s why, when Dwight does leave in whatever capacity, the Magic are completely, totally done. When you take a supporting cast that’s crumbling like Nazis looking into the Ark of the Covenant, and pull the stabilizing pillar that holds it all together, you’re left with a capped out mess consisting of a fantastic, young stretch 4 who can’t create for himself and a decent starting shooting guard, and a whole lot of pain. If everything goes perfectly, Andrew Bynum/Healthy Brook Lopez/Giant Pile Of Nothingness will turn out to be a good enough first option to keep them just out of decent lottery position for the foreseeable future. But if things turn out for the worst, it’s going to be a whole lot of Earl Clark.

I may have switched “perfectly” and “worst” up over there. Take your pick. Just know that Dwight has made his. The way this saga is going down has hardly been ideal, but it’s tough to blame him.

Ryan Anderson: Not Just Some Random Guy Anymore

January 3, 2012 in by with 0 Comments

Agent Smith: As you can see, we’ve had our eye on you for some time now, Mr. Anderson.

-The Matrix

November 27, 2006
Only ranked as the 34th best power forward in his high school class according to Scout.com, no one could have projected Ryan Anderson to be a 20 point per game scorer this quickly in his college career. That’s exactly what he’s doing, though, and it doesn’t look like he’ll be slowing down anytime soon.

-Draft Express

With the departures of Rashard Lewis and Brandon Bass from the Orlando Magic an opportunity arose for Ryan Anderson to simply do what Ryno do: Make threes that open up the paint for Dwight Howard to do what he do. And no Orlando Magic player has done it better than Mr. Anderson.

In the 2009-10 season the Magic set an NBA record for made threes in a season. Guess who paced ‘em out of the gate. That’s right, Ryan Anderson. Through six games that season he led Orlando with 20 made threes. Through six games this season he’s made 22, leads the Magic in scoring at almost 20 PPG, and is practically a shoe-in as the league’s 3-point leader by season’s end. While Kyle Korver’s 2009-10 NBA record .5364 3-point percentage for a season should be safe, with a gunner like this you just never know.

Given the opportunity, Ryno has done the same thing at every level of basketball he’s played, quickly rising up the scoreboard as an offensive dynamo that also has a handle and can collect an ample amount of rebounds per-game as well. Having started only 16% of games since moving to Orlando from New Jersey three season’s ago, he’s started 100% of games this season doubling his scoring production in less than ten more minutes a game than played last year. This a player that’s exceeded expectations at every level.

September 20, 2007
Ryan Anderson was easily one of the most impressive freshmen in the entire country season. Overlooked early on by his more highly touted low-post teammate DeVon Hardin, Anderson picked up the slack before and after Hardin’s injury to lead the Golden Bears in scoring at 16.4 points, while pulling down 8.1 rebounds per contest.

-Draft Express

While Anderson takes less than one field goal from 3-23 feet per-game, according to HoopData he can get to the rim rather well making 64% of his 4.2 attempts there each game. But of course, what he’s made waves as is a fantasy steal from the 3-line, taking eight frozen ropes* a game and knocking down nearly 45% of them this year.

*A frozen rope is a shot with very little arc on it, a term popularized by former announcer Hot Rod Hundley, making Ryno’s otherworldly consistent percentages from three all the more unlikely and amazing

There’s nothing flashy about Ryan Anderson, or his game — it’s a very fundamental one, something he teaches to kids at various camps from the D-League to Kraków, Poland. Indeed, when I went to see how he was getting free to rain terror on his opponents, all I found was that he’s very good at finding the seams and spaces in defenses, a perfect role for Stan Van Gundy’s preferred offense heavily dependent on the 3-ball.

This a dude I’d play Snoggle with any day.

SHOT FICTION: Dwight Howard Plays Charades

August 19, 2011 in by with 0 Comments

We’re a little worried about this lockout. We want basketball. But in case we don’t get basketball, we’re going to give ourselves a season.

The following is a work of fiction and no one was harmed in the writing of this story. These works will be based on how we think the 2011-12 season would play out if the lockout ended and the NBA is able to play all 82 games. Did you get a chance to read the first installment: Ray Allen’s Last Shot? As with that piece of fiction, we hope the lockout will be over soon and this piece of fiction will be the last.

LOS ANGELES Dec. 11 – It was a typical late-autumn Sunday morning in the Westwood area of Los Angeles. To visitors, the air was crisp and cool. To Los Angelenos, it was cold. The early morning mist from the Pacific still hung in the air, but the late-morning sun had started to burn through. It looked as if it were going to be a day worth enjoying. Many would go for a jog or enjoy brunch al fresco with friends. The most sensible people would sit back and let the day unfold, unplanned, before them. The people gathered here at Pauley Pavilion on UCLA’s campus were not sensible people.

We are sportswriters.

We were at Pauley for the Orlando Magic shootaround, which had been moved there because the NBA was staging one of those Clippers-Lakers day-night Sunday doubleheaders at STAPLES Center that try to make people in Los Angeles forget they don’t have an NFL team. The people who care about that sort of thing, that is.

Reporters from Orlando, Los Angeles and a couple of national scribes milled around, chatting and waiting for the Magic to finish going over defensive assignments to cover the Lakers’ new, non-triangle offense. The writers talked with the faint sound of bouncing basketballs, squeaking sneakers and the tornado-siren-like voice of Stan Van Gundy in the background. The audible activity on the court was muffled by a curtain which kept the observers separate from the performers.

Many of the writers hadn’t seen each other in a while. The complimented each other on each others’ recent articles, asked about each others’ families back home, mentioned Marriott points and reviewed Los Angeles restaurants. Having been in Utah and Phoenix, one Orlando writer said he was glad to be in L.A. so he could have his first decent meal of the trip.

“Where’d you go?” one writer asked.

“In-N-Out,” the Magic reporter said with a smile and both men nodded their heads.

Of course, this revelation initiated a discussion about the merits of In-N-Out vs. Five Guys, which had just opened its first franchise in Central Florida earlier this year. The conversation had just started to get good when a Magic PR flack poked his head around the curtain and motioned the media toward the court.

“To be continued …” one national writer said over his shoulder as the media marched in.

On first glance, what they saw was typical post-shootaround disorganization. A few players worked on free throws. End-of-the-bench big men worked on post moves with assistant coaches. Trainers wrapped knees in ice. The most curious sight, though, was Magic center Dwight Howard, sitting courtside with a towel wrapped around his neck and tucked into his long-sleeved shooting shirt. He was pointing at his throat, mouthing the word “No” and shaking his head whe Magic PR asked him a question.

Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, the coaching lifer, stood on the sideline at midcourt, with a bottle of water, half-gone, in his right hand. Van Gundy, whose salt-and-pepper mustache makes him look far more comic and far less glum than his brother, ESPN NBA analyst Jeff, prepared himself for the media crush. He folded his arms across his chest as if he were a disapproving father waiting at the door to greet the boy coming over to take out daddy’s little girl.

Van Gundy played the part perfectly. He harrumphed and scolded his way through his press conference as only he could. SVG knew why everyone in L.A. was rubbernecking his team. It wasn’t the Magic’s 9-10 record. This was the L.A. media’s first chance to ask about Howard, who has a player option at the end of the season. All signs point to Howard opting out of his deal and seeking employment elsewhere. One of those elsewheres could be with the Lakers, the Magic’s opponent that evening. Would the Magic trade Dwight, as the Nuggets did Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks the year before, to the Lakers in order to get something, anything in return for the three-time defending Defensive Player of the Year? It was only December and nearly every article about the Magic wondered whether Howard wasn’t long for Central Florida.

“Look, we haven’t had discussions about trading Dwight,” Van Gundy said, and reiterated many times during the 10-minute session. “We don’t want to trade Dwight. I know everyone would love to have Dwight on their team. But he plays for the Orlando Magic and as long as I’m coach of the Magic, I want Dwight Howard on our side.

“You can’t replace what he does for us. You just can’t. Why do you think everyone wants him on their team? He’s a unique talent in this league.”

Van Gundy wiped a bead of sweat with the back of his sleeve.

“You guys are the ones speculating in every article,” Van Gundy said as he looked down and shook his head. He shifted his weight from his right foot to his left and then back again as if he were playing defense. “‘Where’s he gonna go?’ ‘Who will we get in return.’”

One Los Angeles writer asked Van Gundy if he and Howard had conversations about Howard wanting out of Orlando.

“We … we don’t talk about that kind of stuff,” Van Gundy said. “I know a lot of you L.A. guys would like Dwight to play for the Lakers. He’s great to coach and fun to cover and he’s good for a good sound bite and a laugh, but he’s with us and will be with us hopefully for a long time.

“I know you have jobs to do and that’s the nature of the business these days is the business of basketball. You guys can have fun with that. You can play your games on TV and in the papers and on the blogs, Twitter or whatever.”

Van Gundy paused, then delivered the blow.

“Hell, you have to have something to write about or else you’d actually have to write about basketball.”

That comment stopped everything cold. The Magic beat writers were accustomed to such barbs about their knowledge of the game itself. They shook it off. But a couple of L.A. writers looked stunned as if Van Gundy reached out and smacked them across the face. One even ran his tongue gingerly over his lip as if he was searching for blood.

It was then a Magic media relations person stepped in. He had some news, bad news for the media. He said Howard wouldn’t speak at shootaround or before the game. Howard had, the PR guy offered, laryngitis.

The media looked at Van Gundy as if he needed to give an explanation. Layrngitis? Van Gundy looked back and shrugged his shoulders.

“All right,” Van Gundy sighed. “Anything else, guys?”

No one had anything else for Van Gundy, but Howard hadn’t moved from his spot on the sideline across the court. To his right, sat Magic point guard and friend, Jameer Nelson. On Howard’s left, another member of the Magic PR department. One brave media member started to make his way across the court. The rest of us followed and Nelson, Howard and the PR flack all looked at the mass moving toward them. The media manager’s eyes narrowed as if he were in a showdown on a dusty Western outpost and he was already at 10 paces. He started to rise off his seat, but Howard reached over and gently patted his arm. Howard nodded and Nelson covered his mouth to stifle a laugh.

“Uh, Dwight …” said the pioneer who started the media migration toward the Magic center.

Howard smiled, pointed to the towel around his neck and threw his hands, palms up, in a silent apology. The media guy glared.

We stood silently, uncomfortably in front of them. Then, Howard held up a finger and asked us for a moment. He leaned over and whispered something to Nelson, who shook his head yes.

“If you want to ask questions,” Nelson offered, “Dwight will answer, and I’ll translate.”

So this was a game. One Orlando writer rolled his eyes. One L.A. writer grunted. Were we game? Seems as if one of us was.

“Will you play tonight?”

Howard nodded his head. “Yes,” Nelson cheerfully responded.

“Are you disappointed with how the season has started for you guys?” was the question.

Howard pouted. Nelson said, “He’s sad.”

“Does it make you want to leave Orlando?”

Howard put two hands over his heart and swooned.

“He loves Orlando,” Nelson said. “Plus, he’d hate leaving me. We were rookies together.”

“How are you and Stan getting along?”

Howard gave two thumbs up and smiled. “Great!” Nelson chirped.

“Have you asked for a trade?”

Howard tilted his head and furrowed his brow.

“C’mon, man,” Nelson said in a tone that implied that not only was Howard not going to dignify the answer with a response, but that it was a stupid question.

Howard then held up two fingers. Nelson said, “Two words.” Howard tugged at Nelson’s sleeve and glared, but smiled while he did it.

“Sorry,” Nelson said. “Two questions.”

“If the Magic continues to slide this season, will you ask for a trade?”

Howard scowled and shook his head. He flexed his biceps and then held out his hand like a traffic cop.

“We’re not going to keep losing,” Nelson said as Howard’s proxy. “We’re going to get it together. I’m going to stay strong and stop this nonsense.”

Howard held up one finger and then made the cut sign. It’s lucky that he did. The last questioner seemed emboldened by the finality of the media session. The last question was a doozy.

“Are you worried that if you come to the Lakers, you’ll be compared to Shaquille O’Neal, that you’ll be following in his footsteps and that you could be seen as being in his shadow if you don’t win a title here? Shaq has been highly critical of you in the past.”

Howard’s jaw dropped and his smile faded. Nelson started to speak, but Howard clamped his hand around Nelson’s wrist. He turned and put up both hands as if to say, “I got this.” Howard cleared his throat and spoke his only words of the interview.

“I’m not answering the L.A. question,” Howard mumbled, “but I love Shaq.”

Moments after the Magic suffered a 110-104 loss to the Lakers — Howard had 21 points, 14 boards and five blocked shots — to drop their record to 9-11, the whole Howard pre-game interview (he did not speak postgame) ran on NBA TV. Shaq, who was making a rare Sunday night appearance in the studio, was asked to comment.

“He doesn’t even mumble as good as me,” Shaq mumbled.

Coping With Powerful Distractions

April 27, 2011 in by with 19 Comments

Photo Courtesy of Nuzz on Flickr

*                      *                    *

Clutch performance has been a touchy subject this season. There are the typical statistical arguments, eye-test arguments, and those based on everything imaginable in between. But it is really worth debating the best pressure performers?

The recent end-of-game shots by a pair of the league’s star players have foregrounded this question. Derrick Rose shot 4-of-18 from the field in Game 3 against the Pacers, but he hit a game-winning layup. LeBron James scored 31 points on 55 percent shooting in Game 4 vs. the Sixers but missed a key floater late in an eventual Heat loss.

It’s natural, then, to call Rose the success and LeBron the failure in these cases, as the Bulls won and the Heat did not, consistent with those final shots. Fundamentally, that’s fair. But the full-game execution of these players seems to suggest that the boundary between triumph and futility is maybe not so lucid.

The final minutes of games draw the most attention as they often noticeably influence results, and that is why top players’ execution down the stretch is so frequently subject to scrutiny. With that said, the appeal of these late-game scenarios distracts most viewers from the truth of clutch production: it’s totally overemphasized.

An oft-ignored basic principle of basketball is that the value of shots does not vary with respect to the progress of the game. Two points is two points, whether they come five seconds after the tipoff or find the net with just seconds left to play. The perceived significance of missed shots in the early going is usually negligible, as those flubs are often forgotten by the time of the game at which it is possible to process their negative impact — especially if the consequences of those misses are neutralized by late-game makes. But in many cases, if a player had passed up an ill-advised shot that did not fall in favor of a high-percentage look during a low-pressure moment, the make-up basket in the clutch would not have been necessary.

In other words, if the goal of basketball is to win games, maximizing output and efficiency at the end of games should not be the goal, for in an ideal situation the preceding portion of the game should preclude the necessity of “big” shots. When a particular team plays well in the first 46 minutes of its games, its only task in the final two minutes is to protect a lead rather than to escape a deficit with heroics.

Here’s a rudimentary illustration to demonstrate this.

(Owing to the divisive nature of this topic, bringing up specific names here would only be counterproductive — as loyalty-driven commentary would do nothing more than muddy the dialectic — so it’s wise to deal only in generalities.)

Take two players, X and Y, in two separate games with entirely equivalent final box scores, who each notch 30 points. Player X scores all 30 of his points before the one-minute mark of the fourth quarter, at which point his team is up three points. Player Y, however, only scores 24 of his 30 points before that one-minute mark, at which point his team is down three points. Player X doesn’t shoot in the final minute, but his team still wins by three. Player Y hits two three-pointers, including a tiebreaking buzzer beater, and his team also wins by three.

Player Y is the one you’re going to see in the highlights, the one whose crunch-time accomplishments will be the talk of the NBA community at large for the next day. But Player Y didn’t put his team in the best position to win. It was Player X who hit his shots early, avoiding a predicament that required an “exciting” shot; the situation merely required holding a lead. Maybe Player X is the better winner, then, however counterintuitive that realization is. After all, his performance increased the likelihood of a win for this team compared to Player Y’s, as it’s certainly easier to hold a lead than to recover from trailing.

With all that said, it’s easy to make a claim that is entirely dependent on inference and conjecture. Bolstering the case further, though, is the argument’s practical traction.

Consider the following teams: the Miami Heat, the Los Angeles Lakers, the Chicago Bulls, the San Antonio Spurs, the Boston Celtics, and the Orlando Magic. Arguably the six best teams in the NBA this season, right? They were also the top six teams in the league in scoring differential after three quarters (Thanks to @snghoops for pointing this out) at the end of the regular campaign. Meanwhile, those same squads were 12th, 15th, 17th, 5th, 28th, and 14th, respectively, in fourth-quarter output. Put simply, the NBA’s elite teams do their work early on in games such that they can put scoring on the back burner: all they are tasked with late is protecting a lead. Indisputably, taking care of business early in contests has more than just a theoretical association with success.

Of course, any team, irrespective of its performance, will invariably find itself down by a slim margin late in some games. In those cases, someone to hit key shots would, in fact, be valuable given short-term considerations. (In the playoffs, this excellence might take on extra importance in accordance with the greater gravity of each contest.)

But nothing in basketball is free of exception. It’s about swaying the odds as far as possible in one’s favor. No team is going to hold its opponents to 0 percent shooting, but it would much rather have them shooting 40 percent than 50 percent. Similarly, no team will completely avoid scenarios in which it needs a final shot to win, but minimizing that reliance is optimal. The team that performed the best during standard, “non-clutch time” would have a leg up in that regard and simply let clutch situations take care of themselves.

It would be challenging, probably impossible, to find a coach in the NBA that would prefer to win every game on a last-second shot than to win comfortably, especially in the long term — assuming, again, the coach’s principal goal is to win.

So the apparent discrepancy that allows the clutch movement to gain momentum is this: the interest of fans is not always compatible with the most efficient, reliable way to win a basketball game.

Sports ethicist Edwin DeLattre is one that believes there is an inherent need for excitement in successful competition. He writes:

“Whether amidst the soft lights and the sparkling balls against the blaize of a billiard table, on the rolling terrain of a lush fairway or in the violent and crashing pit where linemen struggle, it is the moments when no let-up is possible, when there is virtually no tolerance for error, which make the game. The best and most satisfying contests maximize these moments and minimize respite from pressure. When competition achieves this intensity it frequently renders the outcome of the contest anticlimactic, and it inevitably reduces victory celebration to pallor by contrast … Exclusive emphasis on winning has particularly tended to obscure the importance of the quality of the opposition and the thrill of competition itself” (From William Morgan’s Ethics in Sport, Second Edition).

At their most basic, professional sports are meant to entertain fans, to inspire awe with spectacular athletic feats. For DeLattre, the power and frequency of the entertainment is enough to belittle the end result of the game. As it happens, the plays in close games tend to amplify the greatness of players’ actions, as fans identify with the struggle of their teams. Clutch shots provide a feeling of release that enhances the sports-viewing experience for most. Accordingly, many people find it necessary to dissect particular players’ success in these situations. After all, who wouldn’t want to watch the most dramatic actors in the league?

Just remember this: these clutch performances are great for the league and the viewer, but that’s about it. Tense late-game scenarios certainly aren’t sought out with winning in mind. Before anointing your player of choice the King of Clutch, it might be worth it to revisit how meaningful that title really is and what your view of success in sport really reduces to.

The Magic Trade Codex: Gambit Queen

December 20, 2010 in by with 5 Comments

Image via Nestor Galina on Flickr

When I play chess, I don’t play to win. I love the game, but while the tactics required, the psychology employed, and theoretics make it my favorite game to play outside of poker, I’m not very good. Even in times when I’ve played quite a bit I’m never really that good at it. I could throw some sort of claptrap about my short attention span but in all honesty, it’s that I tend to play with people who are smarter and better than me.

But when I do play, I sacrifice my queen for theirs first. Generally, speaking. As I’m usually playing a smart player, that player is generally strong in logic and understands that his queen is his or her second most powerful piece on the board. So I sacrifice mine, recklessly, in the pursuit of killing theirs. It’s always fascinating, because in making the queen vulnerable, these players are almost never able to resist taking it, even though it means losing theirs (generally I never leave it as an option anyway). This does not increase my chances of winning. In my attempt to extract their queen, I almost always lose multiple pieces, and even if I don’t, I’m left to try and win with my knights, which I suck at. The reason I take this approach is in conjunction with the remainder of my strategy. I don’t try and play to any particular strategy, I just try and counter whatever it is my opponent does. When you think about it, chess is remarkably similar to playoff basketball. Both sides are really only trying to counter their opponent in the interest of establishing their own approach.  If you focus your whole approach around countering what your opponent is trying to do, you increase your odds of a stalemate. You decrease the odds of a victory, but I think those odds are pretty well.

Any above average chess player is going to whomp me, by the way.  I play people smarter than me. I didn’t say I played smart people. Not like I’m playing ranked players or anything.

What’s the point?

Otis Smith just decided to go sacrifice his queen for theirs.

(NOTE: Please spare me any joke that involves the “queen” bit. We’re neither thirteen nor Shaquille O’Neal.)

At first I was baffled by the trades. Not that they didn’t make sense. They do. You don’t have to have a grinch-like face towards Vince Carter like I do to recognize that he wasn’t good for the Magic. Call it whatever you want, but they brought in Carter, they regressed, and they never hit the high gear with him. That destruction in the first two rounds they unleashed last season? Not driven by Carter, simply the predictable result of inferior competition crossed with experienced execution. But my confusion over the trades was this: do they make Orlando a team that can beat Boston?

Of course not.

Not if we consider convention.

They didn’t acquire a fleet of bigs to throw at Garnett and Perkins and Shaq and JO for the forty five seconds he’s available, and the drunken seal. They didn’t bring in a lockdown wing defender to keep Pierce away from that God-forsaken elbow shot which he plunges into your heart over and over and over again. They didn’t bring in a top flight point guard to make Rondo’s life difficult or a perimeter defensive expert to neutralize Allen or a superstar to throw at them. They didn’t get tougher, didn’t get slower, didn’t get more defensive. If Boston plays the way it does and Orlando tries to play the way Boston does, Boston wins. It’s that simple.

But this?

There’s an alternative.

SVG has to let them go.

They have to go full-tilt offensive firepower.  Their greatest success was 2009, that has to be the model to some significant degree. Yes, Garnett was absent. No, he won’t be this time. But if you aren’t willing to accept that you’re screwed, which you can’t be, the answer is not to try and fight on their turf, it’s to fight on yours. Instead of trying to adapt for Garnett, you ignore the big husked screaming elephant in the room and you fire, and you fire, and you fire again. And if that’s your approach this is a pretty good deal.

Richardson is the big gun here. Lost in the Arenas dramatics and the Turkoglu jokes is the fact that Jason Richardson is the best part of this deal. Richardson can take over a game. He’s one of those players who can run up in transition, nail a three, and you don’t wind up pondering how marvelously stupid that decision was. You can find him on a backdoor cut and the ball’s going down through the hoop with a particular velocity. He’ll share the ball, work in the offense,and he’ll fill it up.

But Arenas could help. I mean, he sucks now. The gamble is on him, specifically. Turkoglu’s marginal. If he does anything it’s gravy. But Arenas still has the ability to raise that percentage back up to 45% and 37% from three and in doing so, he can raise their ceiling. And that’s all you’re talking about. The objective is to take the game out of the Celtics’ comfort zone and put it into Orlando’s for long stretches. Attrition is not a war they can win, but quick firefights with intense artillery is how they took 2009. (Again, without Garnett.)

The defense doesn’t have to improve. They’re fourth in defensive efficiency. It’s not better than Boston. Guess what?  It’s not going to be.  Nothing Orlando does will make them better than the Boston Celtics at defense. So the only way they get past it is to gun. I’ve written about how Boston struggles with teams that push the pace. Orlando does not. Not yet. But they can. They’ve got two guys that can get up and down the floor, Nelson can do it if you take the leash off of him. Dwight’s there if you want to slow it down. It’s true that Howard’s gotten better in terms of what he’s able to do. But the trick with Howard should be to get him fewer touches, and have him be more efficient, not the opposite. If they have weapons filling it up and then nail them with Howard? That’s their peak. That’s how they won in 2009 (again, without Garnett).

This plan may not work. It has a very low percentage shot at working. But the goal isn’t to win. It’s to force a stalemate. Because in basketball, when that happens, it all just comes down to who the shot is falling for.

It’s not a great plan. It’s just a gambit. It’s what they’ve got.

SUCK IT WE WANT PAGE VIEWS: Miami Heat Trounce Orlando Magic

October 30, 2010 in by with 2 Comments

Well.

That went well.

Before we get into the nuts and bolts, meat and potatoes, Riggs and Murtaugh of this game, we need to look at something really weird from this contest. In looking at the box score from HoopData (which gives you a nice breakdown of shot locations if you didn’t already know even though we’ve been pumping this site for a year now), you’ll notice something really strange.

Knowing that Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis were guarding Dwyane Wade and LeBron James and knowing that Joel Anthony was guarding Dwight Howard, how many shots at the rim would you expect for this game? For a little perspective, the Heat averaged 22.5 attempts at the rim in their first two games and the Orlando Magic attempted 21 shots at the rim in their blowout win over Washington on Thursday night. So knowing all of that, how many total attempts at the rim would you guess?

That’s right. The two teams combined for just 17 shots at the rim in this game. Miami had just 10 attempts at the rim. Orlando had seven. Seven!!! I was dumbfounded to find that in the box score this morning. I knew there were a lot of long jumpers taken in this game. Tom Haberstroh breaks it down wonderfully at the Heat Index. It’s astounding to me that these two teams who have a reputation for attacking the rim so ferociously already would settle for lower percentage shots all game long (cue LeBron critics shouting about his shot selection).

But that’s not really the whole story of this game. The Miami Heat is a second half team. Even though they played well in the first half offensively, they have now shown in three straight games that they come out of halftime with a defensive intensity that not many teams will be able to match. The Boston Celtics had enough of a cushion to withstand it in the first game. The Philadelphia 76ers were simply overmatched in the second game. And the Orlando Magic wilted in this third game.

The first half was disjointed but pretty good. Dwight Howard showed off a weird array of jumpers and running hooks that he efficiently showed in the preseason. LeBron James was settling for long 2-point shots instead of ferociously trying to tear the rim down whenever he could (which is a trend when he plays against Dwight). Either team will settle for that happening all game long because that’s what you want them to take. But for the most part both teams exchanged blows in the first 24 minutes of this game.

Then the second half happened and the Miami Heat clamped down on the Magic. Their perimeter defense is scary good. Think about the fact they’ve only been playing together for three games and it looks this good in the key stretches of games. What’s it going to look like in February? May? June? I know their interior is perceived as weak but it’s not really about having a Dwight Howard or Andrew Bogut in the middle for them. They don’t need it because the rest of the defense appears to be so good. Granted, they lucked out on a lot of missed 3s by the Magic (4/24). It doesn’t change the fact that the Magic scored just 25 points in the second half while shooting 19% from the field and 12.5% from 3-point range.

The perimeter defense just swarms the entire time and they end up running the shot clock down for the other team because of it. They did this in the second half against Orlando. The double teams were fast and aggressive. The rotations were even faster and helped them recover incredibly fast. The defense won’t be like this every night. Sometimes it will be worse. But sometimes it might also be better when they get more continuity with each other. This was an impressive win (maybe not a statement making win) any way you look at it.

Let’s Talk About Role Players

Zyndrunas Ilgauskas was fantastic in this game. He didn’t dominate Dwight Howard or hit a bunch of key jumpers. He just did his job of being big and getting in the way of the things going on inside. 8 points on 10 shots looks bad and frankly, it is. But he had five offensive rebounds in the game and neutralized Orlando inside when he was on the court.

In three games so far this year, Eddie House and James Jones have combined to hit 16 of their 30 3-point attempts. Imagine this constant outside attack when Mike Miller comes back to the team and gets into a rhythm. What do you do? How do you guard them? Does it really matter they don’t have an All-Star caliber center?

Udonis Haslem has 22 rebounds against the Celtics and Magic this season. Granted, one of those games ended up being a loss but he’s going to be as important as any role player on this team. He’s always been willing to sacrifice his personal adulation for hard work and everything that will benefit the team. We need to get him onto a serious 6th Man of the Year award watch.

Oh, Before I Forget … This Happened

Why LeBron James is going all Kristen Stewart on us, I don’t really know. I’m not quite sure if this is a tribute to True Blood, Twilight, or if he just wants to turn the term “fangbanger” into one of his signature dunks. Regardless, this just seems dangerous and irresponsible. You’re just asking to impale your own lip or get caught in Dwyane Wade’s cheek when you do one of those super cool flying hip checks to celebrate a big shot.

Hardwood Paroxysm’s Incomplete 2010-2011 NBA Previews: Orlando Magic

October 25, 2010 in by with 1 Comment

Yeah, yeah, we didn’t do one for every team. Not like you all won’t get your fair shake around here, for better or worse. Trust me, if you’re some of the teams out there, you don’t want to hear us talk about you.

But, with a little less than 48 hours to go before the season opener in Miami,we’re going to throw up some stuff discussing the upcoming season. And for starters, we bring you the Magic.

GUEST LECTURE

Today’s guest lecture comes from Eddy Rivera of MagicBasketball.Net. Eddy is a graduate student at Northwestern University and likes woolen socks.-Ed.


It’s championship or bust for the Orlando Magic. Like last year. But this year feels a little different. Yes, the Miami Heat are the proverbial elephant in the room and with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh forming like Voltron, they will be the standard bearer in the Eastern Conference much to head coach Stan Van Gundy’s chagrin. Yes, the Boston Celtics remain the litmus test for the Magic, in the sense that the C’s will continue to be a difficult matchup with their personnel. The Celtics seemingly endless supply of big men, which begins with Kendrick Perkins (when healthy), Jermaine O’Neal, and ends with Shaquille O’Neal, will push the limits with Howard when the two conference rivals face off against each other.

Kanye West once said, “no one man should have all that power.”

However, there’s one player for Orlando that has the power to change everything that happens in the East and that’s Dwight Howard.

Since the Magic christened themselves as title contenders en route to their NBA Finals appearance in 2009, Howard has always had the power to determine his team’s road to a championship yet he’s come up short.

That’s why Howard is kicking things up a notch.

During the off-season, Howard spent a week in Houston working out with Hakeem Olajuwon and improving his low-post game. When video chronicling their training sessions surfaced on YouTube, the internet was abuzz. And when Orlando kicked off their preseason against — ironically — the Houston Rockets, the NBA was put on notice after Howard put on an offensive display against Yao Ming, blitzing him for 10 points in the first quarter when they were matched up head-to-head. Not just with hook shots, mind you, but with mid-range jumpers and spin moves. Granted, it was one game and Yao is not in tip-top form right now, but Howard doesn’t care (he pulled the same shenanigans against Emeka Okafor). Did I mention that Howard also sought out the wisdom of Karl Malone and another player that he would not name?

Howard is a man on a mission.

Correction. Howard is a serious man on a mission. No more goofing around. All the antics that people have been accustomed to seeing from Howard for the past six years when he’s on the court? No longer happening.

Losing sucks. Having the Heat take all the attention away from the Magic in the state of Florida, in the same conference, in the same division. That sucks, too. Those are some of the reasons why Howard has changed. Or if you take Howard’s word for it, he’s different because he “got older.”

Whatever the case may be, things have never been more interesting with Howard than they are right now. That’s precisely why Howard is one of the key players to watch in the league this season. For years, people have been waiting for Howard to fully evolve into a dominating two-way player.

Well, the wait might be over this year.

PLAYFUL TUNES:

PLAYER WHO COULD BE AN IMPACT GUY BUT PROBABLY WON’T BE:

Ryan Anderson. Why? Because I don’t trust SVG. That’s why. “Oh, he’s going to play Rashard more at the three.” “Oh, no, he’s not going to stick to a pure 4-out-1-in.” “Oh, he really believes in Anderson.” Don’t buy it. He’s a swindling mustachioed conniver trying to swindle me out of hope. That sonofagundy is giong to try and get me to buy into his mishmash nonsense of changing his ways, but I know better. Oh, Ryan will get minutes to start out. And he’ll play well. But then SVG will scream at him over some blown rotation where the other team doesn’t even score or for not being in position when Vince breaks the play anyway. And he’ll be back, buried, giving the sad panda face and trying not to cry on national television. I’m too smart for you, SVG. I’m not falling for your little nonsense anymore. I’m an adult now. An adults know: coaches don’t change.

(Possible exceptions: Larry Brown, Rick Carlisle, Rick Adelman, pretty much every coach ever.)

YOU SHOULD TOTALLY WATCH BECAUSE:

Good Goddamn can this team play basketball-o. Fast, strong, athletic, talented, skilled, versatile, efficient, dedicated, you got a superlative that’s good, they’ve got it. This is an incredibly good team on paper, and it translates on the floor for almost all the time. Boson detonating them like blowing up one of the legs of an underwater structure and watching the rigs fall into the ocean while the fish panic wasn’t them getting exposed, it was Boston getting revealed as one of the more dominant focus-level teams of the decade. The Magic shoot threes, dunk the ball, dribble-drive, play in transition, and defend like mad. There’s almost nothing to not like about this team.

YOU SHOULD TOTALLY HATE THIS TEAM BECAUSE:

They expose the true folly of underdogs in the NBA. Even when you’re the favorite, you’re not the favorite. That’s all I got. Oh,and they have this guy.

Lessons from Matt Barnes: How To Boost Your Free Agency Status

June 2, 2010 in by with 2 Comments

I’m sure you’ve heard of Matt Barnes. He’s a marginal role player in the NBA and yet has found his way onto teams that happen to have issues at the small forward position. He’s a guy that has a bit of fire in his veins and hustles quite a bit all over the court.

He’s a sub-par offensive player and an above average defensive player. He’s an agitator on the court and in there to stir things up a bit. He’s basically the Bam Margera of the NBA. There’s not a lot of discernible talent and it’s hard to figure out how he keeps getting on TV. And yet there he is, breaking stuff for no reason and messing with his fat uncle that has the crazy eyes that don’t point in the same direction.

Well, he just opted out of his contract after the Magic were eliminated from the playoffs by the hands of the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals. Perhaps, you remember the Magic’s run in the playoffs this year. It was the same set of post-season games in which J.J. Redick completely outplayed his teammate and damn near made him obsolete. Perhaps you’re asking yourself why a struggling basketball player would try to get himself a pay raise after a bad run of basketball. Isn’t that the anti-Croshere move?

Maybe this will shed some light on the subject for you:

When you have the mentality that allows you to reason this would be an acceptable Tweet in any walk of life, LET ALONE IN THE WAKE OF YOUR LAST HOPE FOR A LONG-TERM CONTRACT IN THE NBA, you probably aren’t capable of making wise decisions regarding your future.

But this is Matt Barnes in all of his splendor and glory. He “keeps it real” or as I like to put it “keeps it really easy for the Orlando Magic and all other 29 teams to negotiate with his agent next month.”

B EZ, Matt.

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