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2012 NBA Playoffs, Celtics Vs. 76ers Lineup Analysis And Why Boston Will Win In 6 Games

May 12, 2012 in by Steve von Horn with 1 Comment

The Philadelphia 76ers don’t really deserve to be in the second round of the 2012 NBA Playoffs. Make no mistake, the Chicago Bulls would have destroyed them with a healthy Derrick Rose and a spry Joakim Noah. Heck, the Bulls came one C.J. Watson mistake away from forcing a Game 7 at the United Center. The Sixers have been dealing with some problems in the second half of the season. I wrote about their tendency to fall into a pattern of shooting mid-range jumpers back in April and broke the whole issue down in much greater detail, but here’s the most relevant snippet:

Undisciplined teams like the Charlotte Bobcats, Washington Wizards and Cleveland Cavaliers are willing patsies in Doug Collins’ defense-oriented plan, but those teams won’t be in the playoff bracket. When compared to the NBA at-large, Philadelphia often looks like the smart team in the room. On most nights, Collins can simply say “we don’t feel like contested two-point field goals will beat you,” and still sound like a genius. However, the landscape is starting to change, and when compared to well-refined teams like the Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls and Orlando Magic, the Sixers are suddenly the dummies taking all of the long twos and sinking into oblivion. They have slipped into the quicksand of inefficiency as better teams chip away at their defensive dominance and exploit their offensive addiction to sub-optimal attempts.

Throughout the 2011-12 NBA season, the Sixers have been among the league leaders in terms of percentage of total shots taken between 10-23 feet. That’s an efficiency dead zone where offensive rebounds and shooting percentages go to die, generally speaking. The Celtics aren’t exactly the polar opposite of Philly, and in many ways they are a bizzarro world version that found ways to get better in the second half of the season by starting Kevin Garnett at center and allowing Avery Bradley to take the starting shooting guard spot from Ray Allen. I don’t think the Sixers have gotten over the problems that plagued them during the second half of the season, but I do think the Celtics have become a better team. Here’s how the lineups compare:

A New Lineup Analysis Tool (.GIF File On 20-Second Intervals)

Here is my attempt at creating a lineup analysis tool where players are compared to the average values at their position (20+ min/gm positional averages are used). For example, say Player X has an Assist Rate of 20.43, while the average NBA SF (20+ min) has an AR of 17.8. I express the value as it relates to the positional average, so Player X’s Assist Rate is 14.7% better than average (which would point upwards and list 14.7 on the graph).

Philadelphia had good success against the Celtics during the regular season, but Boston was never quite operating at full strength. According to NBA.com/stats, no five-man lineup for Boston played more than 15 minutes against the Sixers in the regular season. That’s odd for two teams in the same division. One thing I always like to do for the playoffs is to see how the top players from the higher-seeded team played against the opposition, because rotations tighten up and those guys will be on the court together a lot during the series.

In this case, Boston comes out looking good. When the trio of Garnett, Pierce and Rondo were on the floor together (55 total minutes), the Cs accumulated a +17.2 pts / 100 possessions net rating — 117.0 Offensive Efficiency, 99.8 Defensive Efficiency. Along the same lines, the group of Bradley, Pierce and Rondo (26 total minutes) produced a stellar +28.1 net rating. Those guys are going to play a ton of minutes together, and while the small sample size means it likely won’t hold up at that level, the short bursts of dominance bode well when coupled with the experience of Doc Rivers and the Celtics overall.

Meanwhile, three of the top-five most-used lineups (filled with starters that will be playing heavy minutes in the playoffs) by Sixers in head-to-head regular season games against the Celtics played terrible basketball in short stints. Here’s the quick rundown:

4-Man Lineups	MIN	OffRtg	DefRtg	NetRtg
Brand,Elton – Hawes,Spencer – Holiday,Jrue – Turner,Evan	22	106.3	139.3	-33
Brand,Elton – Hawes,Spencer – Iguodala,Andre – Turner,Evan	20	106.3	133.1	-26.8
Hawes,Spencer – Holiday,Jrue – Iguodala,Andre – Turner,Evan	20	106.3	133.1	-26.8

Advanced Stat Breakdown

I don’t think this will be an easy series for either team. They don’t play easy styles. Everything is a grind, and it all stems from disciplined defense. The Sixers matchup well across the board and boast solid depth to match the Celtics, but Boston has better top players that are more reliable under a playoff intensity. Paul Pierce is going to get to the right elbow when the game is on the line. Rajon Rondo is going to create open looks for Kevin Garnett from the mid-range. I’ve never felt particularly fatalistic about a series, but I do in this case. The Celtics are going to get the job done somehow.

Prediction: Celtics In 6

For my other predictions and deeper analysis on other matchups, check out these other Hardwood Paroxysm articles:

A Full Eastern Conference Playoff Breakdown With First Round Picks Included

A Full Western Conference Breakdown With First Round Picks Included

My Piece On The Philadelphia 76ers From April

Heat vs. Pacers Prediction And Lineup Analysis

Statistical support for this story from NBA.com

The Lowdown: Billy Cunningham

February 12, 2012 in by Curtis Harris with 0 Comments

Years Active:Â 1966 – 1976

Career Stats: 21.2 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.5 bpg, Â 45.2% FG, 73.0% FT

Accolades: Â ABA MVP (1973), 4x NBA All-Star (1969-’72), ABA All-Star (1973), 3x All-NBA 1st Team (1969-’71), All-NBA 2nd Team (1972),Â All-ABA 1st Team (1973), NBA All-Rookie 1st Team (1966), NBA Champion (1967 Philadelphia 76ers)

There are three distinct Billy Cunninghams. For the first three years of his career, he was the 6th Man for the 76ers entering games and delivering a hot dose of instant offense. For the next several years after that, he was perhaps the best forward in all of basketball. His game flourished beyond scoring and encompassed tremendous rebounding and deft passing. However, the last three years of his career were filled with frustrating injuries that eroded a unique and sparkling talent.

Before his hotshot pro career, Cunningham grew up in New York City and then headed down south to attend the University of North Carolina. In his 4 years at Chapel Hill, Cunningham Â averaged 24 points and 15 rebounds. At the conclusion of his senior year, 1965, he was named ACC Player of the Year. With such play, it’s unsurprising the Philadelphia 76ers made him the 5th overall pick in the 1965 Draft and back north Billy headed and was immediately injected into one of the great rivalries in the NBA.

HP 2011-12 Season Preview: Philadelphia 76ers, Iggylocks, and the Three Really Weird Mascots

December 21, 2011 in by Clint Peterson with 0 Comments

Via Flickr, Smithsonian Institution

I can see clearly now, the rain is gone. The lockout has lifted, we have a season, can I get an Amen? (Amen.) And in the spirit of renewal, our shiny new cadre of writers is putting together previews for all 30 teams in true HP style. From where teams are going to what their disgrace is to explorations of pop culture, we are about to rock, salute us, can I get an Amen? (Amen.) So sit back, relax, and ponder the awesomeness of this fully operational Hardwood Paroxysm 3.0. -Ed.Â

Quo Vadimus (Where Are We Going?)

by Andrew Lynch

The Sixers are this seasonâ€™s Goldilocks. On the one hand, theyâ€™re among a handful of teams fortunate enough to bring back their entire core, after the re-signing of Thaddeus Young. As a result, Philadelphia is among the league leaders in the all important â€œconsistencyâ€ statistic*. In the same hand, only in a slightly different position in the palm because the other hand is too busy waving a Jrue Holiday flag,** staying consistent means 33 wins and a 6th seed at best in the Eastern Conference.

*This doesnâ€™t exist. Donâ€™t let that fact stop you from buying into the â€œconsistencyâ€ narrative as the end-all, be-all for this season, though – because itâ€™s going to be sold fast and hard as an explanation for any team that saw little roster turnover and gets out of the gate to a fast start. That could easily be the Sixers; their first ten games include three tilts against teams that made the playoffs last year (Portland, Indiana, and New Orleans). Suffice to say itâ€™s no rodeo-induced road trip.

**Sadly, this also doesnâ€™t exist.

Fortunately, there is clearly room for growth. The Sixers outscored their opponents by 1.5 points per game last season for an expected record of 45-37. If the team can maintain that level of play – or improve upon it – this year, they could readily compete for a top-4 seed in the East, especially if Orlando trades Dwight Howard or Atlanta has to depend on Jeff Teague and Tracy McGrad–

Oh, seriously? Wow. In that case, the recipe for your perfect porridge is simple, Philly. Take the 2010-11 team that you had, let the yeast rise and pray to everything you hold holy that Spencer Hawes plays as few minutes as possible. If the balance between consistency and transition can be struck, youâ€™ll be enjoying your second-round gruel in no time. If not, prepare to be eaten by the Andre Igoudala-trade rumor bear.

The Disgrace

by Noam Schiller

It’s not that Philly doesn’t have fun pieces. Sure, as a defensively-dominant team with an offense built mostly on mid-rangers and inefficiency, you’d expect that they’d be hard to watch, but this isn’t the case: With the exception of the incredibly frustrating Spencer Hawes, the practically irrelevant Andres Nocioni, and the the harmlessly enjoyable/enjoyably harmless Tony Battie, every single player on the Sixer’s roster is a joy on some, if not multiple, levels.

The problem is when you put all of them together and find out that they put spokes in each others’ wheels even more often than they put 20-footers on the back rim.

Evan Turner is a gifted scorer, master of the herky-jerky, his lack of athleticism masked by his creative innovation. Of course, he can’t shoot to save his life, so if you want to maximize his abilities you want to play him with an elite outside-shooting wing. You know, someone like… career 32% 3-point shooter Andre Iguodala? Wait, no, that’s not right. Let’s start again.

Lou Williams cannot play defense. But who cares? Lou Williams cannotÂ make shots. BUT WHO CARES?! He’s faster than every single NBA playerÂ who plays his position, he gets to the line like a fiend, makes a ridiculous percentage at the rim for a man his size, and makes just enough outside shots to fill in. His picture appears under the definition of “6th man” in 9 out of 10 dictionaries.

Of course, you can only have one player like this on your bench if you want to have a functional team, so it’s a good thing that Philly’s second best bench player isâ€¦ tweenerific, defensive sieve, rim-scoring machine Thaddeus Young. Ugh. Fine, a third time.

Spencer Hawes is awful. We hate him. He’s incredibly talented â€“ size, vision, soft touch, you name it â€“ but he masks those positiveÂ attributes under a dispiriting cloak of apathy and ineptitude. Surely,Â such a frustrating player should have the capacity to be his annoying self without clashing with a similar personality. And indeed, hisÂ backup isâ€¦ awkwardly-skilled-physically-challenged Nikola Vucevic. I give up.

It’s frustrating, because these are the sort of players that bloggersÂ dream of. It’s just that the fit isn’t there. Jodie Meeks makes threes, plays decent defense, andâ€¦ takes away minutes from shootingÂ guards who aren’t just role players. Jrue Holiday is an exciting young point guard prospect in a league that has way too many of them, mostÂ of whom can spell their own name. Elton Brand has overcome multiple knee injuries and the stench of a max deal gone wrong to become an above-average veteran leader for a team that just doesn’t need veterans, because they should be rebuilding, dammit, but they aren’t, AND WHY CAN’T YOU SEE THAT AND JUST LET GO, DOUG COLLINS?!

Sorry. Sorry.

It’s not that I don’t like Philly. It’s more that I can’t. They make too much sense as individuals and too little sense as an ensemble. Even if Young develops a mid-range shot, he won’t be able to usurp Brand in the line-up unless Hawes is replaced by an actual rebounder; even if Iguodala is traded to make room for Turner, the chances of equal compensation are virtually non-existent; even if Vucevic is a world-classer, heâ€¦ actually, that would be awesome.

So, this team doesn’t make sense to me until Nikola Vucevic becomes an all-world center. Good luck with that, folks.

Will You Remember Me, I Will Remember You

by Clint Peterson

Do you remember where you were last night?

“If you woke up today in a drunk tank with a black eye, you are likely a Philly fan.”Â

-Urban Dictionary, Philly Fans

Philadelphia fans are fanatical by nature, but sadly, as much or more time is spent targeting whomever is on the given stage in front of them than spent on pulling for their team, which is a shame because this 76ers team is likeable to a fault; quietly toiling away night in and night out. I’d be willing to say that as many, or more, basketball fans outside of Philadelphia like the Sixers as within reasonable driving time from the Wells Fargo Center. Memorable, this team isn’t, at least since the Allen Iverson era.

Remember when Doug Collins said this?

â€œAny time Detroit scores more than 100 points and holds the other team below 100 points they almost always win.”

Relatively stable when it comes to coaching changes –19 different head coaches in nearly 50 years as the 76ers — Doug Collins brought back a winning culture, and playoffs along with it, last season in his inaugural campaign as Philly four-star general. But if this offense doesn’t get it’s perimeter in gear they won’t get over the .500 hump and to the next level.

Collins almost got them to respectability from behind the arc last season, up to .355 from a previous .343, led by Jrue Holiday among starters (Jrue banged back two 3s in a preseason primer versus Washington to give Philly a seven point lead as I was writing this paragraph), and Jodie Meeks, team-wide. 16th in 3-point differential made and 20th in attempts, at -127, least season, Evan Turner came alive (finally) in the 2011 playoffs knocking down a blistering 80% of his attempts against the eventual East champs, the Heat.

“Frank, what’s with the purse?”

“I’m gonna make it raaaaiiiin, baby!”

-It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia

The 76ers have 13 on the roster, but have exactly only $614, 333 left under a luxury tax line expected to be $70,000,000, so not a lot left to shore up a shallow frontline featuring a pair of draft picks that will see significant time should any one of Spencer Hawes, Elton Brand, or Iguodala land awkwardly in the worst way. Otherwise you’re gonna get a dose of Andres NOOOOOOOOcioni you don’t want.

Just relish Thaddeus Young re-signing and leaving every ounce of tweener he meets in a clustrated mess on the floor while basking in the glow of a truly glorious defensive backcourt, the likes of which hasn’t been seen since the Bad Boys, and may never be again once this team’s roster climbs onto the chopping block in two years.

The Lowdown: Bobby Jones

August 28, 2011 in by Curtis Harris with 1 Comment

Photo by Ernie Layba from RemembertheABA.com

Bobby Jones, 6’9″ second-year man out of North Carolina. Best defensive forward in basketball. Shot 60.5% last year (only man other than Wilt Chamberlain ever over 60). Leading league again this season at 59% despite worst form and shortest range in history of mankind. Just never takes bad shot. Great leaper. Denver MVP, easy. Thrifty, devoted, straight arrow. Brown says that during pregame talks, while other players scratch, read, go to bathroom, Jones “stares at me and actually listens. He’s scary.” Bob Goldsholl, Nets TV announcer, says Jones is so clean that when he went to the movie Story of O, he walked out when he discovered it was not the life of Oscar Robertson.

Via “They Run And They Gun-and They’re A Mile High” byÂ Curry Kirkpatrick

Years Active: 1975 â€“ 1986

Career Stats: 12.1 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.4 bpg, 1.5 spg, 55.8% FG, 76.6% FT

Accolades: NBA Sixth Man of the Year (1983), ABA All-Star (1976), 4x NBA All-Star (1977-78, 1981-82), All-ABA 2nd Team (1976), 2x ABA All-Defensive 1st Team (1975-76), 8x NBA All-Defensive 1st Team (1977-84), NBA All-Defensive 2nd Team (1985), All-ABA Rookie 1st Team (1975), 1983 NBA Champion (Sixers)

Bobby Jones: an average name for maybe the best defensive small forward of all-time. The only real competition for the honor is Scottie Pippen and Tom â€œSatchâ€ Sanders. But during Jonesâ€™s playing days, he was certainly the best. Possessing a wiry, yet toned 6â€™9â€ frame, Jones had the perfect height, length, speed and, above all, desire to frustrate and dominate his opponents.

He was near-perfect at every conceivable defensive measure: ball denial, man-to-man defense, weakside help, steals, blocks, interceptions, miraculous saves. Jones did all of this dirty grunt work with an air of nobility: â€œIf I have to play defense by holding on, thatâ€™s when I quit. If I have to use an elbow to get position, then Iâ€™m going to have to settle for another position.â€

Film Don’t Lie: The Sixers, The Heat, And “The Fast and the Furious”

April 28, 2011 in by Matt Moore with 1 Comment

Do you realize that during a five-minute sequence to really kick off the action in this film that there’s a solid minute-long sequence where the entire thing is nothing but two neon-colored sports cars racing in blurs? And it’s not facetious in the slightest? This actually happens, along with this quote, after Paul Walker’s character says “Dude, I almost had you.”

“Ask any racer, any real racer. It doesn’t matter if you win by an inch or a mile; winning’s winning.”

-Vin Diesel, “The Fast and the Furious.”

Now, this is a bad film. That line above should be proof enough. That line is the same kind of overly simplistic crap you’re going to find on shows where people yell each other or any halftime show not on TNT. It ignores context, relevant elements, and any sort of analysis beyond the results speaking for themselves. It’s also pretty true. Which is why it’s the story of Heat-Sixers. And why The Fast and the Furious (as opposed to 2 Fast, 2 Furious, The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift, Fast & Furious, orÂ Fast Five) fits so nicely with the series.

**********************************

In this, the most amazing of first rounds, there are going to be bad series. Every single one of them can’t be amazing. God knows the disaster that was Celtics-Knicks wasn’t. But Heat-Sixers was worst of them all. It was so very much the empty action film. Nothing but gunplay, high-speed chases, explosions, women wearing slutty clothes, and behaving sluttily (but some of them are tough so it’s notÂ misogynistic, we promise!), and incredibly fast vehicles. You’re not walking out of this flick thinking about it, you’re not even really going to enjoy it on further watching. It’s just eye candy. It’s like cartoons for adults. Which isn’t to say that’s a bad thing.

When I saw this flick in 2001, it was the summer after my freshman year of college, and I was home at my folks. My friends and I saw the movie, walked out, and without saying anything, drove out to an abandoned strip of road in the backwoods of Arkansas and raced our crappy sedans and beat-up used pickups. That’s what The Fast and the Furious did to you. It made you want to do ridiculously unnecessary things that borderlined on dangerous and flirted with reckless in your own life. The Heat? That’s the ultimate sin they commit. They make you want to watch, by flirting with something that somehow goes beyond Showtime. Don’t get confused. They’re not. Showtime was function through form. The Heat areÂ form trying to be function. And most of the time it makes you shake your head and wonder, “How in God did someone greenlight this?” But there are those moments, like the Race Wars scene in the desert, or when Wade literally just throws the ball as high as he can and James just goes up and gets it, that you want to do that, you want to see that, you want to be a part of it. It’s just f*cking cool.

It dials into some sort of primal,Â Neanderthal-based instinct to simply exert as much testosterone as possible. That may be the biggest difference. If the Celtics are strength through fury, and Showtimes was art through balance, then the Heat are simply basketball testosterone. It’s indulgence at the highest level. Anyone who’s studied will tell you that real strength is discipline. What the Heat express is not that. It’s just speed, and style, taken to its most ridiculous form. It’s like a Bruckenheimer flick if you took out all the creative energy and just poured in visceral physics.

The Sixers are Paul Walker here, clearly. The cop trying to be the hood, the traditional borderline playoff team trying to be the point-forward driven stretch of positional revolution. The incomplete team trying to be the athletic powerhouse, and finding themselves more and more drawn to playing the Heat’s game. In Game 5, the Sixers actually spent much of the first quarter winning, and then, for reasons unknown, tried to be the Heat. Behind the back passes, alley-oops, the works. They could have simply played their game and maybe it would have worked, maybe it wouldn’t have. But there they were, racing their sedans on a deserted Arkansas backroad, and surprised when the real machine flies by them on the highway.

*****************************************

The sad reality is that the Heat are just like Vin Diesel. Unable to see what, in any situation that isn’t a testosterone-fueled fantasy, they’ll wind up in jail. My father always said, “You can outrun a cop. You can’t outrun the radio.” The Celtics, naturally, are the radio, in this position. In the second round, the Heat have to somehow prove that blurring lights, car chases, and gunplay can constitute something real, can actually show some sort of insight.

*****************************************

Do you realize how many shoves are in this flick? Rewatching it, I was just sort of stunned. The level of violence in a movie about dreamboats racing cars is stunning. It’s unnecessary and has no real point to it. It’s just shoving. And the racing? In reality the racing’s just a, pardon this, vehicle. When you look at it, the Asian mob, the heist, the cops, the double-cross, that’s all the real plot. The cars are really just dressing. And in Heat-Sixers, the highlights were really just dressing. The entire thing was about defense. Meeks holding Wade down for two games before Wade adjusted and overcame because, well, he’s Dwyane Wade. The Heat cutting off driving lanes, forcing the jumpers, running off threes, clamping down on positions. That’s the only saving grace of the Heat, that they recognize that it’s defense that can separate them. They’re at their best unleashed, washing over the barriers of the defense in an athletic tidal wave collapsing down on the huts that line the beaches. But what drives them is the ability to garrison the walls, to hold the line and to force teams into strangling themselves. They’ve learned from the Celtics, even if they can’t imitate them.

But at the same point, it’s about the cars. I mean, it’s a movie about car racing. Â In the ridiculous monologue Diesel gives Walker when he shows him the Dodge Charger, he says “For those 10 seconds, I feel free.” Â That’s the exact same way the Heat are on the break, in those ridiculous highlights. When they get to preen for the crowd after a ridiculous play, they’re doing what they came together to do. The function doesn’t matter, the defense doesn’t matter, the criticism, any of it. They’re alive, and that’s all that matters.

****************************************

Walker eventually succumbs to the temptation and becomes just like them, just like the Sixers succumbed and gave into the series. Collins has so much to be proud of for what they’ve accomplished, but the result is that there’s not much to learn from this series. You walk out the same way, with nothing learned nothing experienced. You just want to go race your car into the night.

Credit to Daniel Rouse on Twitter for this FDL suggestion.

A Body of Truth

April 26, 2011 in by Danny Chau with 1 Comment

Illustration by Russell Cobb

Jrue Holiday is smooth.

It’s the kind of statement that means everything and nothing all at once. It’s a statement that encapsulates his calm demeanor on and off the court, his equalizing poise with the ball in his hands, and the elegant glides to the rim or the effortless release of his constantly improving jump shot.

But it doesn’t elaborate. It can’t explain how Holiday seamlessly switches roles within the game to accommodate the coaching staff and his teammates. How at any given point in the game, he could be setting up a teammate on the weakside, a de-facto shooter on a team devoid of marksmen, or taking the challenge of defending the opponent’s best perimeter player.

It doesn’t fully explain that feeling of right in Holiday’s game â€” something Bethlehem Shoals alludes to in a playoff chat with David Roth for GQ:

What’s so great about Paul is that, regardless of what numbers he puts up, or even whether the Hornets win, he changes the ecology of the game. It’s not only that the Hornets play a certain style because of himâ€”you really are watching a different vision of the sport when he’s got the ball in his hands. Steve Nash makes us droolers for the same reason, but with Paul, the lack of help makes it all the more glaring. He is the puppet master. Or the cosmos. I get a similar tingle from Jrue Holiday, albeit in nascent form.

Bethlehem Shoals,Â The Friday NBA Playoff Kibitz, Vol. 1 | GQ.com

Holiday â€”Â who has charmed us in this understandably futile run against the Miami Heat â€” is not Chris Paul, clearly the most imposing player thus far in a spectacular first round. That isn’t the point. Control is the point. Holiday’s poise is more than just an act like you’ve been here before facade. It’s something that â€” especially given his age â€” can develop into a team-defining gift.

As it stands now, Holiday’s control over his game is seen mostly through balancing his different roles on the Sixers. The team is still reeling from the false premise of an Andre Iguodala/Elton Brand core, which not only obscures the future, but forces the young players into diversifying their games to best fill the holes in the roster. With a competent playmaker like Iguodala on the team, Holiday’s fluidity in this year’s playoffs hasn’t necessarily been seen through his assist totals, but in his easy transition to being the team’s resident shooter.

Holiday has been the most consistent 3-point threat in this series on either team. He’s attempted exactly five 3-point field goals in all four games played thus far, shooting 55% from range for the series. Holiday has provided a much needed lift in the Sixers’ most glaring offensive deficiency, and has significantly improved his efficiency. According to Synergy Sports Technology, 11 of Holiday’s 20 3-point attempts were in spot-up situations. He’s made 45.5% of his spot-up 3-pointers in this first round series, which is a major improvement from the 33.9% he shot in the regular season. Â Four games may be a small sample size, but Holiday is attempting nearly twice as many 3-pointers a game than he did on average in the season. His confidence and efficiency as a shooter has never been greater, and it couldn’t have been more timely.

But perhaps the most encouraging sign of Holiday’s future came at the 1:27 mark of the 4th quarter in Game 4. Holiday catches a pass from Lou Williams on the right baseline. He dives into the paint, drawing four different Heat defenders before making a jump pass to a wide open Evan Turner. With all of the attention Holiday commanded, Mario Chalmers loses sight of his man (Turner), and Bosh is slightly late on the recovery. Turner sinks the floater, and so began the Sixers’ late game push.

Hopefully this type of play isn’t an isolated occurrence. Holiday has the combination of size, strength, and agility to find his way into the paint at will. Mastering the different angles and alleyways from within the paint will be the next step in his accelerated development. Filling in for absent players is a solid gesture, but Holiday will soon have to assert his own strengths for the team’s continued growth. Because the Sixers are still trudging through unstable grounds, and the sooner the team can fall back on a poised young leader, the better.

So yes, Jrue Holiday is smooth. He’s calm, collected, controlled. And if he inexplicably reminds you of someone, he should. Â Perception is a powerful tool, and it’s hard not to see shades of players past and present who’ve held a similar clout over their teams. For Holiday, it’s not fully realized, but the flashes are there. More than anything though, Holiday passes the eye and gut test. And really, has that ever led us astray?

Profiles in Draft Awesomeness: Evan Turner Shall Overcome

June 22, 2010 in by Matt Moore with 2 Comments

Draft. Quickly.

It kills me that the Sixers wound up with this kid. There are so many teams that could really use him, that need him, that aren’t in such general disarray as the Sixers. The team doesn’t know whether it’s coming or going. Thaddeus Young is a small forward that may end up playing power forward even though he dislikes playing power forward (or at least that’s what he told me back in 08. Maybe he’s changed his mind.) Andres Nocioni and Spencer Hawes are now part of their foundation down low. Iguodala was dangled, then retracted, then dangled, then retracted, as if the organization was like some sort of telescopic arm.Â Sixer fans continue to tell me that Jrue Holiday is the future at point guard and I remain skeptical.Â But they watch that team night in and night out, so we can go with it.

The real problem is that the Sixers are a team that’s not looking for leadership. They’re looking for chemistry and a system that works. Maybe Doug Collins will be the one who brings that. But Turner could be so much more. I started gawking at the kid’s numbers five games into last season. I thought they’d tail off (and they did, sort of), but the fact that they were there showed what he was capable of, and when trying to determine a ceiling, that’s a pretty good sign. Then he broke his back. I figured that meant a drop to the teens for him. I mean, the kid broke multiple vertabrae. Who comes back from that? Who fights through that?

Then, not only did he come back, but he came back with a vengeance.Â I watched his second game back against Minnesota where he went 9 of 16 from the field, with 8 rebounds, 7 assists, and 4 steals, and simply could not believe it. He was everywhere. All the time. Then a few days later, I caught him against Purdue, where he leveled 32 points on 11 of 21 shooting (!) and 9 rebounds. This three games back from a broken back.

The performance and numbers and athleticism are why he will get drafted. But if we’re writing a narrative, the fact that he busted his ass to get back and play means something. Sure, it was partially because he probably knew what this season meant for his draft stock and he had to protect his livelihood. But it also shows a hyper-competitveness that will serve him well. Not to go all You-Know-Who-Has-A-Bestseller-About-The-History-Of-Basketball here, but there are guys you want to step onto that floor for your team, or alongside you if you’re a player. Guys you can count on, who are going to go out and execute, no matter what. And Turner has shown every evidence of being that guy.

And maybe I’m wrong. Maybe they’ll trade Iguodala. Maybe Iggy will accept a lesser role and they’ll turn the keys over to Turner. They should. Because Turner shows every indication of being the kind of guy who drops into enemy territory, blows up the supply station, then goes home with the enemy general’s wife.

NBA Trade Deadline: Amar’e Is In Full Power Broker Mode

February 4, 2010 in by Matt Moore with 0 Comments

The Suns are still in active trade talks for Amare, with discussions initiated by both the Suns and other teams. The latest is that the Suns have talked to the Philadelphia 76ers about a swap of Stoudemire plus filler for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert.

While there are a lot of deals the Suns wouldn’t do, this is one in which they’re interested. It’s the Sixers that are holding up the process, I’m told. While nothing’s imminent, if Philadelphia GM Ed Stefanski sees an opportunity to unload Dalembert and thinks Stoudemire is the best player he can get, things could get hot quickly.

At the same time, the Suns are planning to make Stoudemire a contract offer in the next few days, according to a source close to the situation. As in every contract negotiation, the contract terms (years and dollar amount) are the main obstacles — while Stoudemire might want a max contract, that’s not what the Suns want to offer.

via NBA trade season: Top 20 players most likely to be dealt – ESPN.

Ford’s article has a ton of useful information, including how Amar’e's talk about not opting out impacts things. (By the way, that’s a bunch of crap- even if he thinks he’s not going to get a max contract, the CBA negotiations leaves open the possibility he could have a “worse” contract in 2011 versus 2010. He’s splitsville.) I hate taking this route, because there’s nothing that can be done now, but it needs to be said: This is what happens when you don’t move him once you recognize you think it’s a good idea.Now the opt-out is a mitigating factor, impacting who will move for him.

I understand the rational behind this move. Iguodala is a good player, and Dalembert (is a good player this season and) is expiring in 2011. Amar’e is expiring and it puts the Sixers in a real rebuilding mode (are you paying attention, Pacers?!). But from a basketball situation: OMGWTF4Real?

The Suns can put Iguodala and his massive-forever contract at the two guard… and bench Jason Richardson, which makes Barbosa fodder. Or they can spot Iggy at the three… which means Grant Hill is your reserve and Earl Clark is another wasted draft pick.

And the Sixers… What in hell? Brand-Amare, with Speights STILL on the bench? Just seems like a pretty random move, especially considering you’re not getting any long term pieces.

One of the problems with this trade season is that unlike previous years, none of the young, cap-free teams are shopping. OKC wants to keep its roster together organically. Portland’s already thrown in the towel on a push because the injuries have crushed them. Memphis is looking for bench help, not a full-bore upgrade (and don’t have any expirings). Minnesota’s still playing the “everything’s going to be fine! DO NOT PANIC! BE CALM AND CARRY ON!” thing.

Philadelphia might want to consider someone like Golden State. Move your established vets for short-term young players with upsides. Think of it as draft picks with shorter contracts.

Amar’e's got this power-broker positioning thing down pat. Ford mentions that he wants assurances that Sarver will spend to contend. Which to me is kind of odd because he’s already seen Sarver’s not exactly going that route. He’s not cheap, but he’s also not going out and trying to make a home run each time out. The Shaq acquisition was offset by merchandising and other benefits. Amare’s talking about winning and not making outlandish claims. The talk about not getting a max contract is also interesting. Basically, all the 2010 (potential) free agents are playing this game very well.

NBA Trade Deadline: Iggy Go Quickly?

January 21, 2010 in by Matt Moore with 0 Comments

Foiled in its longstanding attempts to move Samuel Dalembert and/or Elton Brand, Philly has apparently come to realize that its best shot at a shake-it-up move is convincing one of the risk-taking/big-spending teams out there â€“ such Houston, Dallas and Cleveland â€“ to absorb the four years and $56.3 million remaining on Iguodalaâ€™s contract after this season.

via Nets pulling brakes on Harris trade talk? – TrueHoop Blog – ESPN.

I objected to the size of Iguoadala’s contract when it was pushed, but he really has become quite the productive player. That’s what’s so baffling about the Sixers. They should be good. Maybe not great, or even ‘good’ but good enough to compete for the playoffs at least. But man, they’re really not.

Dalembert and Iguodala for Tracy’s expiring is a dream deal for both sides. The Rockets get a center, one who’s been killing it this season, an actual, real life, not-Chuck-Hayes-pretending-he’s-tall-enough-to-ride-this-ride, center. And they get an impact scorer at the three spot, meaning Battier moves to the bench as a defensive expert some nights, and on tougher nights, Ariza comes off the bench as scoring specialist. It loads up the Rockets. It wouldn’t make them a title contender, but it pushes them past the rest of the Western middle, and might mean home-floor in the first round. Their advanced numbers are good outside of the plus/minus from this year; Dalembert ha his highest PER’s in the last four years, and a 21% TRR, while Iguodala’s slipped a bit on all fronts, he also hasn’t had a point guard to work with.

For Philadelphia, you get another guy to put buckets in seats, and more money off the cap next year. You’re back to a rebuilding squad, still have some young assets, and can commit to a new approach versus trying to hiccup your way back into just being mediocre instead of bad.

HP Trade Proposal Rating: 4 Rick Bucher tanning sessions out of five.

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