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Tag Archive - Shaquille O’Neal

No Championship for Old Men

May 12, 2011 in by with 8 Comments

Power — intoxicating and addictive — is never easily ceded. Not by nations and rarely by champions. It has to be taken. In sports, it’s often taken from the aging or the infirm. In the case of the Boston Celtics, it was both.

If you took one look at the Celtics sideline late on Wednesday night, you would have seen Rajon Rondo and Jermaine O’Neal lying on their aching backs, straining their necks to see the action on the floor. You would have seen Kevin Garnett expending the same amount of energy to do half the things he used to do. Shaquille O’Neal, the future Hall of Famer the Celtics signed to combat the Lakers in The Finals, spent what may be his final NBA game as the largest Big & Tall model in history. And as good as Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are, LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are younger and have more talent.

The Celtics wanted to play, but their bodies betrayed them. Their time has ended. The Lakers too. Three days prior to LeBron and the Heat ending the Celtics’ successful four-year run in the East, the “new old” Mavs — an oxymoron — swept Phil Jackson and the two-time defending champion Lakers, playing like schoolyard chumps, into next season.

If the Celtics or Lakers had forced their series to seven games, we may be able to believe Doc Rivers’ claim that his Celtics team “isn’t done” or Kobe Bryant’s claim that the Lakers will be back as a legit championship force in 2011-12.

But the Heat and the Mavs channeled their inner Anton Chigurh and used their captive bolt pistols to blow a big hole through any notion that the Celtics and the Lakers can remain at a championship level beyond this season. It’s not necessarily age itself, but the changes that come with it. They are like Tommy Lee Jones’ sheriff, who chases the light in his dreams but eventually wakes up before he can catch up to it. Those days are history. Things are different now.

If the Lakers couldn’t set aside their trust issues during the postseason, what makes anyone think that they’ll grow fonder of each other over an 82-game regular season? If the Lakers couldn’t get Phil his fourth three-peat, who thinks they’ll be able to band together for a new coach? Do you think the Celtics’ core will somehow grow any younger over the summer? As much as I like to believe Rivers, one of my favorite basketball people of all time, will return to Boston because he’s “a Celtic,” there have been rumblings for some time about him wanting to take a break. Changes should be coming to both teams.

But based on the history of those two franchises, you’d be inclined to believe they will bounce back. Between them they have 33 NBA championships and 52 combined Finals appearances. Based on what we saw of the two teams, it’s hard to believe that they will be able to dominate foes as they have the past four seasons. The NBA has too much talent on too many different teams. Not only that, that talent is in or close to reaching its prime.

For only the fifth time when both teams have made the postseason in the same year, neither the Lakers nor the Celtics made their respective conference finals series. By not having these specific Celtics or Lakers teams to cheer or jeer in a conference finals is slams shut the door on the post-Michael Jordan era of the NBA.

This will be the first Finals without Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant or Tim Duncan since 1998. It’s as clear a demarcation point in NBA history as the introduction of the shot clock in 1954 or Bill Russell retiring in 1969 or when Jordan and a hungry Bulls team destroyed an aging Lakers team in 1991.

Consider, too, the men who led them. It will be the first time since 1995 Phil Jackson, Gregg Popovich and Pat Riley won’t roam the sidelines during The Finals. Though, that stat deserves an asterisk considering Riley is the brains behind this current iteration of the Heat. He has the hardware to prove it.

Riley built the Heat in the Celtics’ image using the lure of a homegrown star to attract other stars. LeBron said as much before and after Game 5. Beating the Celtics was the reason he burned every bridge in Cleveland. For LBJ, getting past the Celtics was like MJ finally getting past the Pistons in ’91.

For LeBron, who at times has a loathsome lack of self-awareness, sounded contrite and humble after the Heat’s win. Whether his overall attitude has changed for the better remains to be seen. But one thing we know: the NBA will never be the same. It’s up to the new power generation to shape it to their liking.

Team USA Beats France

August 15, 2010 in by with 6 Comments

I had the chance to go catch Team USA’s final exhibition on American soil before they head off to Turkey for the 2010 FIBA World Championship starting on August 28. As expected, the US boys rolled over the French in Madison Square Garden, winning 86-55, although they didn’t look particularly good on offense or defense early and were deadlocked with France at 16-16 after one quarter.

It was just an exhibition, but it still offered a little insight into what we might be might see from Team USA in Turkey. Here’s a few thoughts from Madison Square Garden.

  • The team started off sloppy early in the first quarter, at one point turning the ball over on two consecutive possessions, mishandling easy passes in semi-transition. Unforced errors like that shouldn’t be happening with Rajon Rondo and Chauncey Billups on the floor (although it was more KD and Iggy’s fault, respectively, in these two specific instances). As for the starters, I think what we saw today will likely be the same group we see starting the first game in Turkey: Rajon, Chauncey, Iggy, Durant and Tyson Chandler. Chauncey’s vet savvy and shooting make him a good fit at the two, Durant and Tyson are locks, and Iggy/Gay seems like essentially a coin-flip as both bring some much-need athleticism/slashing to the wing, but Iggy does play a little more D, so I would take him. Rajon/Rose could go either way, too, I suppose, but Rajon has the experience, and that seems like the go-to tiebreaker for USA coaches.
  • Speaking of Rondo … On Saturday, Rajon mentioned that he had not yet gotten the chance to return a phone call to chat with his new teammate Shaq, but when asked if he’s looking forward to running the break with the big fella, he said “hopefully he can keep up with me … I’ll wait for him.” He also expressed that playing for Team USA was a change since, compared to guys like Steph Curry, Eric Gordon and Jeff Green, he’s “like a veteran,” he said. “On my team, I’m the young guy so it’s a different look.”
  • The play of the day went to one of those young’ns. Steph Curry forced a nice steal around half court by playing pesky D then was able to tip toe the sideline to keep it inbounds, immediately whipping a behind-the-back dribble to get by two defenders and pushing it up the floor. He was far from done, however, freezing a defender in transition around the elbow with a sharp crossover and getting all the way to the cup. Rather than take a contested layup, he dumped it off to Rudy Gay for a power dunk. The sequence was MSG-approved and marked one of the many dunks that sent the near-capacity-eventually (started about half full and then filled up most of the way) crowd into a frenzy.
  • Rondo had a pretty nice play of his own, however, Rondo-ing his way by a France defender for a sweeping, easy lay-in. It was impressive, sure, but at this point I almost expect one of those per game. Unconfirmed reports lead me to believe that the French kids watching at home are calling the play “Le Rondo’d.”
  • Rudy Gay wasn’t gonna let the little guys have all the fun and added to the highlight reel with back-to-back breakaway dunks early in the fourth. The first, a Harold Miner-esque, leaning reverse two-hander, gets a 9 out of 10 from me, while the second, more of a 270-degree, spinning one handed reverse, deserves a solid 8 out of 10 on the in-game dunk-o-meter. Iggy added a nice power windmill dunk of his own on a first-half breakaway. I was well aware of MSG’s affinity for dunks, but it seems that patriotic dunks are that much sweeter.
  • Eric Gordon barely saw the floor early (93 seconds in the first half ), but got some run in the second (about 12 minutes) as, presumably, Coach K and company wanted one final look at the kid. He hit two treys and added one other bucket, but my gut tells me he’ll be the last man cut from Team USA. Steph Curry just seemed to be a little more ingrained in the rotation from the two games I saw this weekend, bringing the ball up on occasion and spacing the floor with his shooting. And if it’s just shooting they care about keeping, Danny Granger also did this yesterday — although I never actually thought Granger had a chance of getting cut anyway unless his finger was actually injured. (It’s not. He’s fine.)
  • Nando De Colo of France (a player who the Spurs own the rights to and RC Buford, according to Jeff Garcia of Project Spurs, has called the best point guard currently playing in France) hit a nice trey right in front of the press box during the first half. He easily has the best name of anyone who was in Madison Square on Sunday.

Le Fin.

NBA Playoffs Celtics Cavs Game 2: Just Picture Numbers Running Down A Screen Like In The Matrix

May 4, 2010 in by with 0 Comments

SHAMELESS PLUG BONUS! (Check out my recap of Game 2 here.)

Took a look at Synergy (which you honestly need to get, now) after the game and noticed a lot of interesting numbers.

For the Celtics on offense, here’s what their offense looked like in Game 1 vs. 2.

Game 1: (3 plays were not classified as any of the below, they had a scoring % of 0)

Play Type (Game 1) Time% # of plays PPP TO% Scoring %
Overall 100 107 .87 15 43
Isolation 12.1 13 .77 30.8 38.5
P&R Ball Handler 17.8 19 1.21 10.5 63.2
Post Up 14 15 .53 20 26.7
P&R Roll Man 4.7 5 .2 20 20
Spot Up 13.1 14 1.o7 0 42.9
Off-Screen 5.6 6 .5 0 16.7
Hand Off .9 1 0 0 0
Cut 10.3 11 1.27 9.1 63.6
Offensive Rebound 6.5 7 1.14 14.3 57.1
Transition 12.1 13 .85 7.7 46.2

And Game 2:

Play Type (Game 2) Time% # of plays PPP TO% Scoring %
Overall 100 103 1.0 17.5 45.6
Isolation 10.7 11 .73 9.1 36.4
P&R Ball Handler 12.6 13 .69 30.8 38.5
Post Up 16.5 17 .88 17.5 41.2
P&R Roll Man 3.9 4 2.5 0 100
Spot Up 15.5 16 .81 6.3 37.5
Off-Screen 10.7 11 1.73 0 63.6
Hand Off 0 0 0 0 0
Cut 9.7 10 1.2 0 60.0
Offensive Rebound 1.9 2 1.0 0 50.0
Transition 8.7 10 1.22 22.2 55.6

The Celtics lowered the amount of plays they ran that were Isolation, P&R Ball Handler, and P&R Man. But they increased significantly the number of Post-Up, Spot-Up, Cut, and especially Off-Screen. They jumped their scoring percentage on Off-Screen from 16.7% to 63.6%. That’s a huge differential in motion offense. The Celtics essentially found success by producing more plays off of motion and not just lining up and going at the Cavs. Notice the scoring percentage drop in ISO. The Celtics actually lowered the number of transition plays they employed, but raised the scoring percentage by over 9 percentage points. And while they scored less in Isolation, they did lower their turnover percentage significantly. If you want an indication that this game could have been even more of a blowout? Spot-up shots, a bread and butter NBA play actually increased in frequency and lowered in scoring percentage for the Celtics.

These number jive with what we saw, where the Cavaliers defense essentially got lost whenever the Celtics pushed the ball. At one point Shaq looked a jumpshooter five feet from the basket, could very easily have pursued a close-out, and just sort of, “eh.”

If the only play type you’re shutting down is the spot-up, which can reliably be counted on to project back to the mean? You’re facing a considerable defensive disaster.

For the Celtics, who says they’re old (we do, all of us, even the old guy in the corner)?! They’ve got motion! They’ve got sunshine! They’ve got rotations, who could ask for anything more?!

NBA Playoffs: Bulls Prep for Losing Games 2, 3 and 4 by Losing Game 1

April 18, 2010 in by with 13 Comments

The Bulls will probably have just as much chance in this series if they game plan based on the above video as they will if they actually try to figure out scheme in which the players who wear their jerseys can beat the players who wear Cavs jerseys. Because none exist. The talent differential is simply too great, and the Bulls offense is simply too incompetent. They just can’t score regularly — they didn’t in Game 1 and they didn’t all season long — and that’s not particularly helpful when you’re matching up against the 6th best defense in the NBA.

In order to win a single game, the Bulls will need to get both inspired effort and dead-eye shooting from just about every member of their 8-man rotation, which consists of Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and six other mediocre-at-best basketball players. In Game 1, they got neither of those things. Thus, they lost. Stellar analysis, I know. But it’s the truth. No one played well, aside from their second-year point guard for small stretches.

On the good side, Rose made 13 shots on his way to 28 points, piled up 10 assists and grabbed 7 boards while also creating some good open looks for his teammates on some drive-and-kick action and having at least one extended stretch of high-level play in the third quarter. Good stuff. But on the other hand, he missed 15 shots (to finish 13/28 overall), turned the ball over an inexcusable 7 times and, worse still, got to the line only twice. That’s just not going to get it done. Especially considering he played weak defense and allowed himself to be screened out of the play much too often.

But, aside from knuckling up and playing better D (which, let’s face it, wasn’t the side of the floor where Chicago really lost this game), what more would we have Rose do? He certainly needs to get to the line more, but it’s not like he was settling for jumpers and not penetrating. He drove plenty. He just didn’t finish enough or force enough contact, both of which are probably a helluva lot easier said than done when Cleveland’s entire interior is rotating to where you’re going to be before you even get there since there is no one on Chicago’s roster capable of burning them with the outside shot. When there is nothing to respect aside from Derrick getting to the cup or dumping the ball off to a big if the rotation is sloppy, the defense is just going to collapse and contest every inside shot with multiple guys. Some of Rose’s interior looks weren’t bad shots, per se. They were just tough looks and off-balance floaters that he isn’t used to taking since he normally doesn’t have to be that creative once he gets by an initial defender.

So, sure, we can look at Rose’s 13/28 night and say “you have to shot better … you can’t waste so many possessions.” Or we can look at Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich’s collective 9/25 shooting and say “I guess a Rose drive into the teeth of the defense that ends up in a turnover isn’t all that much worse than what would have probably happened otherwise.” Throw in Taj Gibson’s 4/10 night and a 4/9 evening for Noah, who I really can’t recall doing anything useful on offense (zero offensive boards, for instance), and it’s not as if the possessions wasted by Rose were likely going to be better utilized by anyone else in this failure pile in a sadness bowl that is the Bulls’ 27th ranked offense.

The nugget of potential effectiveness I did see that perhaps the Bulls should pursue a little deeper is Hakim Warrick in the post. Warrick played less than 10 minutes, so we probably won’t see much of him in Game 2 either, but he converted a little turnaround move over some good defense by LeBron in the second quarter. Then they went right back to him on the block and, while unsuccessful with the shot, he got another, similar good attempt up. Them being the Bulls and them being coached by a terrible, terrible, terrible coach, they of course never tried this again, but it looked like something that might provide four or five fewer wasted possessions in Game 2. And this is coming from someone who thinks that Hakim Warrick, for lack of a more poetical or adult word, sucks.

As for the Cavs, they were the Cavs.

Jay-Z style, what more can I say? Andy Varejao was diving into the stands and grabbing 15 boards. LeBron was impressively putting up a mediocre-for-him 24/6/5 line with a couple nice blocks (which were broken down in an awesome yet, as SLAM’s Marcel Mutoni put it, “pause-worthy” Sports Science segment about his swatability during half time). Shaq was being his average, large self. Mo Gotti, a name that I only use in an ironical, Black Mambaesque way, was getting buckets (8/14 overall and 3/7 from three). Jamison showed why his acquisition easily makes this the best team LeBron has ever played for by knocking down half his attempts (7/14) even when his outside J wasn’t falling (only 1/4 from deep) and collecting 10 boards. And Anthony Parker and Delonte West existed.

Yup. That’s the Cavs.

And at this point, the only thing the Bulls should be doing is investing in brooms. But, hey, at least they get to play 86 games while the Raptors only got 82. So there’s that.

We’re All Pretty Bizarre. Some of Us Are Just Better at Hiding It, That’s All.

December 11, 2009 in by with 0 Comments

From top to bottom, the Miami Heat are a pretty captivating team.

Dwyane Wade needs no introduction; he’s all-world, and if injuries hadn’t temporarily halted his career’s momentum, he would have single-handedly propelled the Earth into the sun. But as it stands, he’s a hyper-charismatic telepathical knight who knows the secrets to all space and time. I guess that’s good enough.

But down from Wade, the Heat are a rag-tag group of promising young players, cast-offs, and stopgaps. Michael Beasley is a terrific talent, but his off-court (and online) troubles of various kinds have eclipsed his promising improvements. Mario Chalmers is a good player with plenty of skill, but he’s still the NCAA standout that somehow couldn’t merit a first round pick. Jermaine O’Neal wore out his welcome in both Indiana and Toronto, only to find new life this season behind a cleaner bill of health and some team stability. Quentin Richardson was traded to 29 of the league’s 30 teams in the off-season, and his expensive price tag and limited skill set make him both an expensive luxury and a provider of a much-needed service in Miami. Carlos Arroyo once had the buzz at his back coming off Puerto Rico’s upset of Team USA in the 2004 Olympics, but since was bounced off of teams and out of the NBA before making a grand return to bolster the Heat at point guard. Jamaal Magloire is the worst All-Star to ever live. James Jones and Daequan Cook are each other’s worst enemies, as they end up splitting time when all Jones wants to do is play defense and Bowen it up from the corner, and all Cook wants to do is launch up threes every time he touches the ball. Joel Anthony manages to look like a pretty decent shot-blocker in the 2008 Olympics, and then immediately manages to revert to his former self the second he steps on a NBA floor. And Shavlik Randolph? Yakhouba Diawara? You get the point.

Every team and every player has their story. Maybe they bounced around the D-League, or recovered from an injury, or overcame some real life, non-basketball issues. But when you look to the Miami roster aside from Wade and Udonis Haslem, it’s just tale after tale of ‘disappointment.’ Each of Miami’s role players has found a fairly unique way to fail, and while that’s not exactly a ringing endorsement for the quality of this bunch, I don’t mean to tear them down. Although this particular group of players may not be the most talented supporting cast, they’re certainly able, and beyond that, they may be the most interesting such group in the NBA. If you ever had the luxury to invite an entire team to a dinner party, there are a few no-brainers. The Spurs, for one, who are much more interesting people than they let on. The Cavaliers, maybe, because their camaraderie and genuine like for one another is downright infectious. But right with those squads has to be Miami. On the floor, they’ll fool you into thinking they’re a cohesive unit at times. But in terms of personality types and personal narratives, that couldn’t be further from the truth.

Somehow, Wade’s transcendent talent and Erik Spoelstra’s underrated abilities as a coach manage to hold everything together. It works. Not at the level of the Magic, Celtics, or Cavs, but certainly at a respectable level given this team’s unique context. I wouldn’t say it’s uncommon for players of diff’rent strokes to play together under a banner, but the Heat simply take that possibility to a ridiculous extreme. They’re a complex bunch with diverse histories and backgrounds, even if we want to see them in the simplest terms, in the most convenient definitions: a “pothead,” a draft bust, a maligned star, a consummate workman, a gunner, an outcast, a brain, an athlete, a basket case, a princess, and a criminal. Just add basketball everything else disappears.

Shaq Is Still Bad For Your Team Defense, Just In Really Interesting Ways

December 4, 2009 in by with 0 Comments

However, Shaq’s inability to step out on the pick-and-roll, among other factors, has caused the Cavs to regress in how well they’ve defended the mid-range shot. Last season, the Cavaliers were better than the league average at defending shots from <10 feet, 10-15 feet, and 16-23 feet. This season, opponents’ FG% from all of those areas is better than the league average. Last season, the Cavs allowed 13.3 baskets per game from midrange. This season, they allow 16 baskets per game from midrange, and with the better percentages they’re allowing from midrange, that regression more than cancels out the Cavs’ defensive improvement in the paint this season.

The Cavs were excellent at defending the three-pointer last season, and that’s continued this year. The Cavs only allow opponents to make 5.5 three-pointers a game this season, on a very low eFG% of 47.5%. Essentially, the Cavs are a weak at defending midrange shots, but great at defending the perimeter and the rim.

Last season, I would’ve rejoiced at this news. As any advanced-stats junkie knows, threes and shots at the rim are far more efficient than midrange shots, and cutting off those weapons is a great way to neutralize an offense.

However, when I was doing some research this off-season, I found something that shocked me. I did a regression analysis of offensive efficiency against what percentage of a team’s shots came from midrange, and there was absolutely no correlation. None. The midrange shot might be inefficient compared to threes and shots at the rim, but that gap can be overcome by converting the shots a team takes at a high level, and it’s easier to get good looks from midrange than it is to get good looks at the rim or from deep.

via The Changing Cavalier Defense And What It Means « Cavs: The Blog.

Interesting stuff from Krolik regarding the Cavs’ team defense.  The correlation isn’t terribly surprising, but I’d like to see how the other team’s 16-23 foot percentages will shift as the year goes on. You’d have to imagine that versus three pointers and inside shots, that range is going to have the most variance month to month. Shooting slumps, etc.

Shaq provides a cushion for the interior and perimeter defenders but is going to leave you with problems against teams that can create space. You know, like most of the elite teams in the league.

Cavs Offense Brought Down By Weight Of Shaq. Get It? Weight? Cause He’s Fat, You See

November 28, 2009 in by with 2 Comments

Well, the numbers do say Shaq is doing something bad to Cleveland’s offense.

According to 82games.com, the Cleveland offense is more than eight points per 48 minutes worse when Shaq is on the floor. What in particular is the problem? Well, Cleveland’s shooting is worse with Shaq playing (even though Shaq tends to be a high-efficiency player) and the team’s offensive rebounding is worse. The biggest deal, though, might be in drawing fouls: the Cavs average four free throws per 48 minutes fewer with Shaq on the court. Of course, a huge part of LeBron’s game is drawing fouls — Shaq seems to hamper that part of the offense, according to the numbers.

via Is Shaq Killing the Cavs Offense? — NBA FanHouse.

Ziller confirms what we all essentially know, which is that Shaquille O’Neal, who killed Phoenix’s offense, is killing Cleveland’s offense. Amazing. After all, this was a guy who played “like an All-Star last season.” It leads to an examination of what role plus/minus should have on the All-Star voting. If you don’t dig metrics, that’s fine, but you should look at what a player does to his team in whole. After all, Steve Kerr right now is singing “THANK YOU, DANNY, THANK YOU SO MUCH!” while his team streaks back into top-three-seed contention by just going back to what they were doing before he showed up.

If you want a huge conundrum? What do you do with Z here? I mean, if this trend continues and Shaq keeps hurting the club, you need Z.  But if you want to acquire a player to compensate for Shaq’s damage, you need to move Z. So what do you do? Do you risk decimating your depth and a player that fits into your offense and has been around FOR-EV-ER? Or do you cash in your chip to try and compensate for the $20 million investment you made that’s struggling to integrate? Too early to pull the trigger, but the next two months are going to be interesting stuff to track.